Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 07/10/19

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

 903 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019

A cold front is pushing south across the forecast area, with
breezy conditions expected for a couple hours with the front.
Latest satellite imagery showed a bit of enhanced clouds and even
a few showers/isolated thunderstorms near the Wyoming/Nebraska
border. Can`t rule out a couple showers or storms to sneak south
of the border, or even an isolated stronger storm over the far
northeast corner where there is better low level moisture
convergence. That should be all but over by or shortly after
midnight if we do get a storm to pop. Otherwise look for clearing
later tonight. Overall, just slight changes to reflect the current
and short term forecast conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Partly cloudy skies have developed through this afternoon as
daytime heating warmed the elevated terrain of the mountains.
However, cloud development is being limited by a strong mid-level
inversion at about 18,000 feet. MDCRS soundings have been showing
the persistent inversion since late this morning. Breezy
conditions have developed over the higher mountains with gusts up
to 35 mph. Winds elsewhere have be generally light. Afternoon
clouds over and downstream from the mountains will diminish
through the evening, with the loss of daytime heating. Clear skies
will prevail overnight.

A weak front will move over the plains overnight, from shower
activity that will move over the Nebraska panhandle this evening.
This will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler tomorrow as light
northeasterly winds continue. The only spot that is expected to
see any showers tomorrow will be the southern Front Range
foothills where some low level moisture may be transported in from
western Kansas by the post-frontal easterly winds. Isolated to
scattered showers will be possible for a few hours. The rest of
northeast Colorado should remain dry, under the influence of a
strengthening upper level ridge centered near the Four Corners
area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Starting Wednesday night, a 596 DM ridge will build over the four
corners region. At this time models show the high pressure system
staying in place through the weekend with the jet over the northern
CONUS and Canada. The ridge will help to increase temperatures in
the mid- and upper-levels bringing an extended period of 90+ degrees
over the plains. Storm chances will get steadily higher through the
week as moisture levels increase. For Thursday, PW values over the
higher terrain will be hovering around 0.50 inches with just over
0.75 across the plains. Conditions will be mostly capped, however,
some NE upslope winds along the base of the southern foothills and
Palmer Divide could create just enough lift to pop off a couple of
storms by the late afternoon hours on Thursday. The apex of the
upper ridge will start to shift and the rotation will aid in
transferring moisture around the periphery of the circulation and into
Colorado. PW values will respond with moisture increasing 0.10-0.15
inches by Friday. With the added moisture, coverage of storms will
be higher Friday afternoon with the main hazards being light rain
and gusty winds due to the high-based nature of the convection.

For the weekend, the moisture train will continue with regional PW
values now over an inch for most areas according to the GFS.
Boundary layer moisture will stay fairly dry across the eastern
plains with slightly better RH along the Urban Corridor for Sunday.
In terms of forcing, Saturday has a weak shortwave that is currently
projected to move through during the morning hours on Saturday. This
will help to create more widespread convection chances across the
higher terrain and eastern plains. With the elevated PW values, main
hazards will be moderate to heavy rain. Confidence in the forecast
lowers after Saturday with model differences at the synoptic level
become greater. The EC maintains the upper ridge over the four
corners region with the GFS weakening it. Moisture levels continue
to be elevated so will maintain a chance of storms across the higher
terrain and a slight chance at the lower levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 902 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Cold front is pushing across the airports and we`ll see an hour or
two of gusty northeast winds to around 20 knots. Then, winds will
decrease 07Z-10Z, and become light and variable by daybreak.
Normal diurnal easterlies around 10 knots expected to develop
Wednesday. No precipitation expected with VFR conditions through
Wednesday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch