Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 07/02/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
700 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/
Scattered convection will linger through approximately 0030-0100
UTC, prior to weakening with a loss of insolation. Most cells will
avoid Metroplex airfields, but one or two may briefly cross a
terminal. The more notable impact will be deviations for
arriving/departing aircraft this evening.
After convection wanes, expect a return to benign flying
conditions, with southerly flow around 5-10 kt at all sites into
the day tomorrow. Low probability of MVFR CIGs at KACT near
daybreak, but too low to include in the TAF at this time.
With weak mid/upper impulses still hanging across the region, a
low potential exists for convection near Metroplex sites tomorrow.
However, these systems will continue to weaken and move away from
North Texas, such that convective potential appears too low for
any mention in TAFs. KACT may be close enough to more favorable
mid/upper support, though, and VCSH is advertised in that TAF.
Picca
&&
.DISCUSSION... /Issued 253 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019/
The general weather theme will be modest rain/storm chances---
albeit slowly dwindling each day---and a gradual increase in
temperatures through the weekend. For those with outdoor
festivities...it does not appear that each day will be a complete
washout and it is probable that most rain/storm activity will
quickly diminish after sunset each day.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through the 6-9pm
time frame tonight...mainly for areas near and east of the US HWY
281 corridor. Given the paltry deep layer wind shear observed on
the 12 UTC FWD RAOB and ACARS data from D/FW and DAL...widespread
severe weather is unlikely. There may be some isolated strong to
near-severe caliber downbursts as precipitation loading may be
efficient for some stronger downdrafts...but modest theta-e
deficits are expected to really hinder this threat. Through the
overnight hours, I expect that most areas will be rain-storm
free...though there could be some gradual ascent across Northeast
Texas. I`ll maintain some low rain chances north of the US HWY
380 corridor and east of I-35 to account for this potential.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to fall into the 70s
areawide. There remains a low chance for some patchy fog across
East Texas, but this risk appears too conditional to include in
the worded forecast at this time.
Tuesday will feature another day with 40-50 PoPs mainly across
Central and East Texas. A compact upper low---now over Central
Mexico---will lift northward quickly into the Lone Star State
through the morning and afternoon hours on Tuesday. This feature
will help to enhance the already diffuse shear axis and could
serve to boost rain/storm chances across the area. I`ve nudged
PoPs up just a tad from the blended guidance given that mid-upper
level flow will ramp up to around 40 to 50 knots. Despite the
increase in flow...widespread severe weather still appears
unlikely given the modest deep layer shear...but I wouldn`t be
surprised to see storms organize a bit more in the way of small
clusters or line segments. The higher rain chances may equate to
slightly cooler conditions---highs in the mid to upper 80s---
across East Texas while the rest of North and Central Texas
maintains highs in the low to mid 90s.
With the broad upper trough/shear axis remaining anchored across
the Big Country...the potential for isolated showers and
thunderstorms will continue on Wednesday and into Thursday (4th of
July). The coverage of showers/storms should be a tad less as
there does not appear to be any additional features that would
assist with a larger number of convective cells. With activity
being more isolated in nature, high temperatures will continue to
creep upwards for most areas with highs in the upper 80s to mid
90s. Heat index values will also gradually increase into the upper
90s to near 100 degrees for most areas...especially on the 4th of
July. At this time, it does not appear that any heat related
headlines will be necessary, but given that increasing number of
people outdoors it is prudent that individuals follow heat safety
protocols...after all it is still summer in North and Central
Texas.
The end of the work week and into the weekend will feature
increasing warmth as the aformentioned shear axis is nudged
eastward by a low amplitude shortwave trough. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with the degree of troughing and actually suggests
that a diffuse front will attempt to slide southward through
Oklahoma. This could be a potential focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity along the Red River initially before this
feature loses a great deal of its baroclinicity. However...the
ECMWF is very much an outlier and I`ll keep PoPs around 20%. In
the wake of this feature some slight ridging will attempt to
slowly overspread from the west and southwest and this should
really keep rain/storm chances low.
Bain
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 91 74 90 74 / 20 20 10 20 10
Waco 74 90 72 88 73 / 10 30 10 30 10
Paris 72 88 71 87 71 / 50 40 10 30 10
Denton 74 91 73 90 74 / 20 10 10 20 10
McKinney 74 89 72 90 73 / 30 20 10 20 10
Dallas 75 92 74 90 75 / 30 20 10 20 10
Terrell 74 89 72 90 73 / 30 30 10 30 10
Corsicana 73 88 71 86 71 / 30 40 10 40 10
Temple 72 89 72 87 73 / 10 30 10 30 20
Mineral Wells 72 91 70 90 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
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