Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/09/19

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Reno NV

 311 PM PDT Sat Jun 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Temperatures will be warming Sunday, becoming very warm, with
highs above 90 degrees for most lower elevations Monday through
Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected through Tuesday, then
afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible from
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

No significant changes were made to the existing forecast with the
primary concerns being related to flows on some area rivers. All
systems fed by recent snowmelt have been falling from cooler
temperatures, but are still running fast and cold. For more
details concerning flood advisories and rivers, please read the
Hydrology section below.

Otherwise, temperatures will be warming Sunday back to around
average, then above average for Monday (90s for western NV valleys
and 80s for Sierra valleys). Expect snowmelt to increase again
early through the middle of the up-coming week. Winds will be
easterly and decreasing each day through Monday as gradients
weaken over the region. By Monday, tertiary flow patterns will
take hold with a light afternoon zephyr expected and overnight
downslope conditions. Boyd


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Saturday...

Not many changes were made to the previous long term forecast. Only
slight adjustments were made to POP, wind, and temperatures. Medium
range models are still in good agreement with the overall pattern
next week.

Operational models and ensembles continue to show a shortwave ridge
building into the western US early next week. This will help to
suppress convection Tuesday and will raise daytime highs 10-15
degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday. This translates to
highs in the low to mid-90s for western Nevada valley locations
and 80s for Sierra valleys. With this warming, expect high, fast,
and cold flows on area rivers (especially unimpeded rivers such as
the West Carson and West Walker) due to increased snowmelt.

A small amplitude trough will move into the region Wednesday cooling
temperatures by 5-10 degrees bringing highs down into the
mid/upper 80s for western Nevada and mid 70s to around 80 for
Sierra valleys. This trough will also increase convective
coverage over the eastern Sierra and western NV valleys adjacent
to the Sierra. A larger amplitude trough will then dig into the
western US Thursday, which will shift convective coverage into
much of western NV Thursday afternoon. By Friday, convection will
be mostly confined to the eastern Sierra of Mono County and
portions of southern Lyon and Mineral counties.
-Johnston

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions through the early part of this coming week. A
more southerly pressure gradient has set up over the region today
than what was originally forecast, leading to east-southeasterly
winds. Surface wind gusts to 20 kts can be expected this afternoon.
Wind shear approximately +/- 10 to 15 kts can be expected for
arriving and departing aircraft at KRNO this afternoon due to this
southerly gradient and subsequent localized terrain effects. Then,
light winds can be expected Sunday through Tuesday at regional
terminals.
-Johnston

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Cooler temperatures yesterday have slowed snowmelt. That trend will
continue today into Sunday. By early next week we are expecting
well above normal temperatures again and a return to high
flows...and possibly some minor flooding...along the unregulated
portions of the West Walker River and the Carson River system. At
this time...the snowpack is greater in the Walker basin. The West
Walker River has the highest potential to reach flood stage next
week.

A very slow rise continues on the Humboldt River above Rye Patch
Reservoir. A Flood Advisory continues above the reservoir in
anticipation of minor lowland flooding into next week. High flows
are likely to continue on the lower portion of the Humboldt River
through much of June.

Remember that the rivers will be running cold as they are fed by
snow. Water temperatures are only near 50 degrees in the lowest
valleys and just above freezing in the upper reaches of the
streams and rivers.

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno