Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 05/23/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
638 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/
Fair weather cumulus clouds will continue for a couple more hours
as abundant moisture continues to stream northward, providing
plenty of moisture for some storms across Oklahoma. The gusty
southerly winds that have been in place for much of the day are
also expected to decrease shortly after sunset as the near-surface
environment gradually decouples from the stronger winds aloft.
The region is expected to remain precipitation free through the
entirety of this forecast period as the driving force for storm
initiation retreats back to the west. Overnight, expect to see a
recurrence of MVFR at all TAF sites, beginning with KACT at
around 04Z and continuing northward into the Dallas/Fort Worth
metroplex by around 06Z. A similar evolution is expected tomorrow
compared to today with the MVFR deck increasing in height by late
Thursday morning, leaving a VFR deck in place once again as
northward moisture transport continues.
Hernandez
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 314 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019/
/Through Tonight/
One minute visible satellite imagery and radar data shows a weak
convective attempt in northern Jack County. The cumulus field
is a little better developed across our northwest counties and
this area is strongly unstable with MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg.
Aircraft sounding data indicates that there is still a fairly
considerable amount of inhibition in place across North Texas.
This capping along with a general lack of stronger forcing for
ascent or lack of any well defined surface focus, should keep any
thunderstorms isolated at best in our area. A better coverage of
storms is expected off to the northwest of our area and into
Southern Oklahoma. We`ll maintain some low PoPs through the early
evening hours to account for this activity.
Otherwise, low level moisture will remain in place through the
overnight hours. We`ll see a return to widespread low cloud cover
late this evening. Southerly winds will remain gusty through the
night and this combined with the cloud cover should result in warm
overnight lows in the mid 70s.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 314 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019/
/Thursday through Next Week/
Generally tranquil conditions are anticipated through most of the
long term forecast period across most of North and Central Texas.
There will be a very low rain/storm risk across parts of the
area, but at this time, it appears that most locations will remain
rain/storm free. Very warm and humid conditions are
expected...especially this weekend as a ridge temporarily builds
westward. Early next week there will be a slight chance for a few
showers and storms. Confidence in the specific details remain low
at this juncture so PoPs are generally broad brushed in nature.
Low level moisture will continue to stream northward across the
South Plains on Thursday in response to broad low pressure to the
north. There will be another bout of low clouds and possible
drizzle/fog on Thursday morning. At this time, forecast visibility
are expected to remain high enough to preclude the explicit
mention in the worded forecasts at this time. There does appear to
be a ribbon of slightly more focused ascent north of the I-20
corridor on Thursday morning. Forecast soundings indicate that
there will be a decent amount of dry air aloft, so it`s probable
that only a few sprinkles will be possible.
Thursday will feature very mild conditions once low clouds thin in
the afternoon. Some previous model guidance was much warmer on
Thursday (and really through the rest of the outlook). The most
recent suite of guidance appears much more reasonable with respect
to high temperatures as very wet soils and higher atmospheric
moisture content will more than likely keep temps in check. We
should see temps climb into the mid to upper 80s across most of
the area.
Thursday Night into Friday features very low (below 15%) rain
chances across western North Texas and into the Big Country.
Isolated to widely scattered convection should fire along the
dryline across the Panhandle Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow
will take this convection eastward during the nighttime hours into
early Friday. Corfidi vector magnitudes generally decrease with
eastward extent across western North Texas and given the
increasing nocturnal inhibition...I`ll leave any mention of storms
out of the forecast across the area. There could be some WAA
streamer type activity across Central Texas on Friday morning, but
the threat for widespread measurable rainfall appears low at this
time.
The day on Friday and into the weekend should feature a very
similar pattern to Thursday with slightly moderating
temperatures. The official forecast will remain rain-free as
convection should initiate deeper into the Panhandles each
day in the weekend...thereby increasing the travel time/distance
to North Texas. We will monitor upstream convection daily to make
any slight adjustments to the forecast which could feature an
insertion of low rain/storm chances...mainly northwest of the D/FW
Metroplex. High temperatures will climb to near 90 degrees
areawide this weekend, with humid conditions (dewpoints in the
70s) and with the periphery of the mid-level high expanding to the
west, rain chances will remain below 10%.
Next week offers the next chance for rain and storms as the mid-
level ridge retreats some to the east. Right now, there are
discrepancies between the GFS and ECMWF between the placement of
precipitation, so for now a 20 PoP is advertised for most of the
FA.
Bain
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 88 74 88 71 / 5 10 5 0 0
Waco 74 88 74 87 71 / 5 10 5 5 0
Paris 72 86 70 86 69 / 5 10 5 0 0
Denton 73 87 73 86 70 / 5 10 10 5 5
McKinney 73 87 73 86 70 / 5 10 5 0 5
Dallas 75 89 75 88 72 / 5 10 5 0 0
Terrell 74 88 73 87 71 / 5 10 5 0 0
Corsicana 75 88 74 87 70 / 5 10 5 0 0
Temple 73 88 73 87 71 / 5 10 5 0 0
Mineral Wells 72 87 73 86 70 / 5 10 10 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
08
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