Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 05/19/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1025 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Have seen a series of strong to severe thunderstorms moving
across northern Houston county. The severe threat from now until
the early morning hours is expected to be basically the just
issued tornado watch area. The cap has held strong for most of
the area this evening, but expect thunderstorm coverage to
increase overnight generally NW of a Madisonville to Conroe to
Liberty line. 33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019/
AVIATION...
A cluster of strong thunderstorms over North Texas will probably
clip the part of SE TX this evening. Not sure if they will impact
either KUTS or KCLL but will carry a TEMPO for thunder through 02z
just in case. Will carry a VCSH elsewhere tonight as capping
looks to be holding and Amdar soundings still show a bit of a cap
at 700 mb. The 18z GFS and the 21z HRRR did not initialize well
and their respective solutions of storms making to Houston looks
somewhat suspect. A mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings expected overnight.
Cigs will scatter out Sunday afternoon with VFR conds expected
between 18-21z. 43
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 89 73 89 73 / 50 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 75 89 75 89 76 / 60 30 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 77 82 77 83 78 / 40 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CDT Sunday for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Sunday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
942 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 942 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019
Showers and thunderstorms are over for the evening, with a quiet
night to follow. Could see a few showers approach areas well west of
I-65 in the pre-dawn hours, but by far most of the shower and storm
activity tomorrow will take place during the daylight and evening
hours. Could see a few patches of fog around sunrise in the most
protected valleys in the Lake Cumberland region where rain fell
earlier, but a mixy atmosphere will keep general fog from forming.
Issued at 531 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019
Storms are moving northward through the Lake Cumberland region.
Though they are not especially tall, they are in an area of max
DCAPE of 1300 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates. As a result, we
have seen some gusts over 30 mph and possibly over 40 mph with a few
of the stronger cells. Have increased PoPs in the far southeast of
central Kentucky for the next couple of hours, and will continue to
monitor development.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019
GOES Visible satellite reveals widespread diurnal cu across the
region this afternoon. Recent AMDAR soundings continue to show some
warm air aloft that has helped to inhibit any sort of shower or
thunderstorm development, though it`s possible we could see a stray
shower/storm or two east of I-65 by late afternoon. Any activity
that does develop should quickly taper off by sunset.
Overnight, skies should remain mostly clear. A LLJ will begin nosing
in from the west after midnight, and showers/storms currently in
progress across western MO/AR will begin to decay as they arrive to
western portions of the CWA near sunrise. Most guidance indicates
this activity completely dissipating by the 12-15z timeframe.
Additional shower/storm activity may develop to the west after
sunrise, and potentially move in during the late morning or early
afternoon hours.
There still remains some small potential for strong to severe storms
ahead of a cold front, though much of that will be conditional on
instability. Should we end up with multiple rounds of showers and
elevated storms through the morning and early afternoon hours, it
could greatly hamper instability from recovering and fueling storms
late in the day along the cold front in our area. In general, models
peg the best area for destabilization across western Kentucky and
southwestern Indiana, just outside of our CWA. The majority of high-
res guidance indicates relatively subdued convection by the time it
arrives late tomorrow in southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Outside of storms, winds will be quite gusty out of the southwest
ahead of the cold front. There`s certainly potential to hit wind
advisory criteria for most, if not all of the area, but much of that
will depend on how much clearing we see in between rounds of
precipitation. Will hold off for the time being on a wind advisory
and highlight the gusty winds in an SPS.
Showers and weak storms will likely persist into a good part of the
night along and ahead of the cold front as it pushes to the east.
Drier air behind the front should gradually end precipitation from
NW to SE.
.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019
Upper low over Quebec will drive NW flow over the Great Lakes,
helping to build a surface high into the Ohio Valley for the first
part of the week. Expect dry and pleasant weather Monday into
Tuesday, with temps near normal for this time of year as heights
don`t fall that much overhead. Later on Tuesday southerly flow
starts to pick up ahead of a vigorous closed low over the Plains,
and warm advection could swing a band of showers and storms into
south-central Kentucky before the end of the day.
For Tue night and Wed, ridging builds again over the southeast CONUS
and the Plains low will lift due north. Forcing for precip will
weaken, but with an initially good moisture feed, we`ll carry
chance POPs mainly along and west of I-65.
Amplified pattern will continue through the latter half of the week,
with the ridge continuing to build. Hot and dry weather is expected,
with daily max temps just either side of 90. GFS tries to bring a
front in from the north on Friday, while the ECMWF is slower to
break down the ridge. Will favor the Euro and go with a dry
forecast on Friday, with 20-30 POPs on Saturday.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 726 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019
Any early evening convection will be short-lived, very local, and
quite isolated, and can be left out of the TAFs. LEX stands the best
shot at a passing shower.
Tonight low level winds will crank up ahead of a storm system moving
from the Plains to the Midwest. Will continue mention of LLWS.
Tomorrow waves of showers and thunderstorms will pass across the
region as a cold front approaches from the west. The best chance for
the most significant thunderstorm activity should hold off until
Sunday evening just ahead of the front. Winds will come in from the
south and will be very gusty throughout the day.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update...13
Short Term...DM
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...13