Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 05/09/19

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

 1006 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis shows lingering surface boundary from earlier
convection situated from roughly Columbus-Cleveland. Aircraft
soundings from the Houston area indicate a saturated layer from
the surface to about 700mb below a weak capping inversion.
Continued moist flow from the Gulf should provide periods of
showers and isolated tsra...and some patchy fog in between. Water
vapor imagery shows a weak ripple embedded in the sw flow aloft
making its way up from nrn Mexico and s Tx which may enhance
overall coverage later tonight esp along and north of boundary
mentioned above. As always, we`ll be closely monitoring trends and
note the lower thresholds for flash flooding where grounds are
especially saturated. Overall, just minor tweaks to the forecast
we already have out. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019/
AVIATION...
Activity looks to be dying off at this time...with
the bulk of the stronger/more organized storms well E/NE of the
CWFA. We are still seeing some isolated showers over the region
(generally north of I- 10) and will be expecting these to
dissipate, especially after sun set. Did keep with MVFR CIGS for
tonight given the wet grounds and decreasing winds. So far,
confidence remains low with the the near term models (e.g. the
latest runs which seemed to have initialized poorly) so have kept
with a general persistence type forecast with the TAFS going
forward. The unstable and warm/moist airmass across SE TX should
be supportive of convective development along or near any leftover
outflow/meso boundaries that happen to be around. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      72  85  60  70  64 /  50  60  90  90  80
Houston (IAH)              73  86  67  76  69 /  50  70  90  90  80
Galveston (GLS)            77  83  73  79  74 /  40  40  90  90  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
     Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$