Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 04/11/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
916 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019
.UPDATE...
Another quiet night on tap for southeast TX, although we will
begin to see a few more low clouds late tonight and tomorrow
(especially nearer the coast) beneath stout mid level capping as
low level moisture increases off the Gulf. Winds will be
diminished from this afternoon, but still remain out of the south
at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts along the coast. This will hold
overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Evans
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019/
AVIATION...
Cirrus patch or two drifting over the area with impressive
southerly flow feeding into the storm complex over the Plains.
PW is low with 0.5-0.6" PW streaming quickly north and GOES
indicating that dry plume extends well south into the southwest
Gulf. AMDAR sounding showing the strong capping and limited
moisture only reaching up to around 2300ft. Strong winds aloft
have been mixing down this afternoon with gusts of 25-30kts. These
should relax slightly this evening but the moderate southerly flow
will continue at area TAF sites. May flirt with LLWS at UTS/CLL
after midnight with the entrance region of the LLJ traversing
those sites and the strong inversion present at the upper height
bound of the LLWS criteria. Moisture limited in the morning and
though some guidance is very bullish for OVC MVFR decks around
1500ft am skeptical with mixing overnight. Some period of MVFR ceilings
may crop up for a few hours 13-16z near the coast but not very
confident. Winds becoming SW ahead of the dryline tomorrow late
morning-afternoon and still gusty but not as strong as late this
afternoon. Dryline should push past CLL and turn winds westerly
with some gusts and then eventually dryline/prefrontal troughing
relaxes winds significantly.
45
MARINE...
Small craft advisories will be in effect for all the coastal waters
tonight. Gradient will tighten, winds will increase (possibly some
gusts approaching gale, and seas will build. Peak should probably be
10pm-4am. Look for them to gradually diminish as we head into the
morning hours Thurs - though remaining somewhat breezy thru the day.
Winds will further diminish Thursday night before increasing once
again Friday as pressures fall to the w/sw. Small craft advisories
will be required again Friday night as the next system approaches,
then eventually pushes thru the region. The associated cold front
should make it`s way into the waters before sunrise Sunday with
strong offshore winds in its wake. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 84 54 81 63 / 0 0 10 10 50
Houston (IAH) 67 86 62 84 68 / 0 20 10 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 71 79 68 76 69 / 0 20 10 20 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...48
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1024 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019
.UPDATE...
Winds mostly dropping off on schedule late this evening and we
have allowed all the previous warnings to expire. An area of
sustained 30 mph and higher winds were accompanying passage of the
Pacific Cold front, currently over the central and southern
South Plains, but this cold front will scoot through pretty
quickly and winds will subside again afterwards. Relative
humidity values also were remaining in the lower single digits in
this same area so the Rangeland Fire Threat Indices also remained
elevated, but also should diminish quickly. RMcQueen
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 724 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019/
AVIATION...
Wind speeds were hitting their peaks between 22Z and 00Z and
should be gradually decreasing through the evening. Arrival of a
Pacific Cold front will shift winds to west-northwest early this
evening before the modified Canadian cold front shifts wind more
sharply to the north early Thursday. Bulk of push of this Canadian
front will be off to the east. The thick blowing dust this evening
has resulted in clouds reported as ceilings by the ceilometers at
all forecast locations. Although technically blowing dust is a
surface-based phenomenon, because of the strong ceilometer hits
and likely appearance of cloud from aircraft approaching from
above, we also have indicated MVFR cloud layers with IFR to MVFR
visibility restrictions through about mid evening. From then, we
expect the Pacific Front will provide enough cooling to help
settle the dust and improve visibilities and ceilings back to VFR.
RMcQueen
UPDATE...
Wind speeds ramped up as expected after 5 pm as downward forcing
become more widespread. Peak gusts near 70 mph occurred within
several narrower enhanced downward corridors over the South
Plains, especially apparent using the 6.95 micrometer GOES imagery
(one of the water vapor channels) and this also led to extremely
low visibilities from blowing dust. We issued a Dust Storm Warning
earlier and will let it play out long enough for visibilities to
begin recovering this evening. Visibilities may be improved in
town, but likely not much improvement yet next to the fields. Wind
speeds should be on the back side of the peak but remain near
high wind levels at this time. High Wind, Dust Storm, and Red Flag
Warnings continue. RMcQueen
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019/
DISCUSSION...
The increase in wind speeds is on schedule with peak still
expected to occur between 3 and 7 this afternoon. We are not
planning on making any changes to the High Wind Warning, Wind
Advisory, or Red Flag Warning at this time. Winds should diminish
below action stage by late evening, although a brief increase
above 20-30 mph is expected later tonight behind the Pacific cold
front associated with the main lobe of energy passing on the south
side of the parent upper low.
Focus then shifts to the potential precipitation maker to start
out the weekend. The models are showing a pretty wide spread to
the path of the upper low that will generate this precipitation,
in large part because the 12z WRF-NAM has taken a really far dive
south bottoming out toward I-20 while the GFS and ECM remain
farther north toward the South Plains and Panhandle. There would
likely end up being some real implications regarding timing and
area of precipitation, particularly on Saturday. Of high
confidence is initial precip with the initial lift likely favoring
the eastern half of the forecast area. The extent of precipitation
on Saturday will depend heavily on whether the low passes overhead
or to the south with the potential for a more widespread
deformation axis precipitation event. Either way will keep likely
going for most of the forecast area, but given the uncertainty
introduced this morning will pare back the categorical 80 percent
mention.
Finally, the next storm system is progged to affect the forecast
area the middle of next week. At this time precipitation chances
favor the Panhandle and the strongest winds toward the Permian
Basin. Will favor the model blend at this time, but there remains
plenty of time for adjustments based on future trends.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
05/99