Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 02/05/19

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

 629 PM EST Mon Feb 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will move into the Appalachians and central mid
Atlantic region before stalling over the area on Wednesday.
This will keep unsettled but very warm conditions with a good
chance of showers in the forecast through midweek. A strong cold
front will then affect the region late in the workweek with
more showers, followed by colder air for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 PM EST Monday...

Little discernible change to the forecast at this time. Backed
up on timing for onset of precip west a couple hours as current
observations show that returns on radar over mountain empire and
northwest NC are virga. Bumped up temps slightly to match more
closely with high res guidance but may need to bring them back
down in a future update as some areas are radiating out very
quickly since sunset.


As of 115 PM EST Monday...

The Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region will see
increasing clouds as the day wears on and a frontal boundary
continues approaching from the west. With most of the upper
support shearing off to our north there will not be a big push
to get the front through, so it will lazily move in overnight
and more or less wash out over the region on Tuesday. There is
a decent amount of low level moisture with the front and expect
orographic effects west of the Ridge will generate a good chance
of showers, especially at the higher elevations. Believe
downsloping will prevent much spillover of precipitation to the
east.

Showers will linger west of the Ridge Tuesday morning before
gradually dissipating to lingering drizzle. Expect lower clouds
to linger throughout the day west of the Ridge with little in
the way of sunshine to boost temperatures. Locations to the east
will see some sun early to warm things up considerably before
clouds bloom during the afternoon.

Lows tonight will generally be in the 40s. Highs Tuesday will
have considerable west to east variability due to the clouds
with locations east of the Blue Ridge nearing record highs in
the lower 70s, while low/mid 60s will be more common to the west
with some mountain locations not quite making it out of the
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EST Monday...

Shortwave ridging across the southeast states will dominate to start
the period resulting in continued very mild weather for much of the
area into late week. Weak surface boundary sinking south Tuesday night/
Wednesday still looks to bring some threat of rain/showers mainly west
into Wednesday night, before the front lifts back north as a warm front
Thursday ahead of a stronger surface low heading off to the northwest.

This boundary should exit the region to the north early Thursday
allowing a very strong surge of warm advection to take place during the
day as the best lift/moisture shifts back to the upstream cold in the
western Ohio Valley by late in the day. Even expect to see some sunny
breaks develop given the strength of the southwest jet aloft which will
pump +12-14 deg/C air into the region with any isolated showers across
the far north. This should push highs into record territory with upper
60s to mid 70s likely and even perhaps close to 80 southeast if more
insolation does occur per latest Mex mos at Danville. Showers with the
cold front to the west should arrive later Thursday night over the far
west, but still mild with lows staying in the 50s east and 40s west
where more clouds should arrive overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Monday...

Upper ridging will start to break down a bit late in the week as a
passing 5h trough to the north helps flatten the mid level flow with an
associated surface cold front crossing the region Friday. However given
most upper support with this feature heading off to the north, will see
its associated band of showers fade crossing the western mountains as
it also encounters residual upper ridging over the southeast. This
supports a period of chance/likely pops far west Friday and lower
chances heading east of the mountains at best. Range of highs Friday
from 60s east to slowly falling into the 40s far west as low level cold
advection bleeds in per deeper cold air remaining off to the northwest
closer to the parent Arctic high. However will be quite windy with
guidance showing a 45-50 kt 85h jet Friday which may support advisory
headlines over the mountains. Expect enough low level cold advection to
bring an abrupt cool down Friday night as lows dip into the 20-30
degree range along with perhaps a few teens western valleys.

Rather quiet period into the weekend under a return to more seasonal
temperatures as the large dome of cold surface high pressure slides
across the region within zonal flow aloft. Models do suggest that
another weak mid level wave may combine with warm advection to bring
more clouds and spotty rain into a residual wedge espcly west on Sunday
but iffy given dry air. This could perhaps result in some light mix
into Sunday night before strong warm advection wins out ahead of
another weak cold front to the west that looks to bring another round
of rain showers on Monday. Otherwise mainly sunny but chilly Saturday
with highs in the 40s followed by clouds and low pops Sunday and temps
still stuck in the 30s/40s before rising Sunday night. Better warming
supports 40s and 50s on Monday despite clouds and possibly more
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 PM EST Monday...

Conditions will be VFR to start the TAF period and will begin to
deteriorate in the west tonight in low clouds and rain advancing
into the region ahead of a cold front. Locations which fall to
sub-VFR conditions can anticipate that they will likely remain
there for the duration of the TAF period as the front stalls out
over the region. East of the Blue ridge, some lower VFR ceilings
will be possible, but no significant impacts to flight
conditions are expected.

Winds are expected to be light through the period with no
significant impact to aircraft operations.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Pattern remains unsettled into midweek with the next threat of
rain and sub-VFR conditions being late Wednesday into Thursday.
SCT MVFR rain and snow showers are possible on Friday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JR/MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JR/MBS