NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO 205 PM MDT SAT APR 7 2000 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: FCST IS FOR CLRG SKIES AND CD TEMPS TNGT. ATTM...UPR FLO AND SFC PRES GRADS ARE WKNG...SO WNDS SHUD BE LGT AFT SUNSET. MID-LVL MOISTURE WL ALSO DPRT THE AREA BY 06Z PER MDL GUIDANCE. THUS...GUD COND FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT. LATEST RUC AND MESOETA INDG H7 AND H85 TEMPS ACTUALLY WRMG FM W TO E TNGT...BUT THIS SLGT WAA ALF WL NOT MIX DN TO SFC. MIN TEMPS GNRLLY TEN DGS BLO SEASONAL AVGS. 46 LONG TERM DISCUSSION: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE STATE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR SUNNY SKIES... LIGHT WINDS...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS BACK MUCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHS APPROACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S SUNDAY AND THESE LOOK GOOD. INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WITH CORRESPONDING STRENGTHENING LEE TROF SPELLS FOR INCREASING WIND ON SUNDAY AS WELL. NEXT TROF FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY. AVN SHOWING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW TO MENTION AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE RESERVED FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THEN A RETURN TO DRY AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD. BARJENBRUCH .DEN...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 935 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2000 EXPECT SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT & BLOW-OFF CONVECTION UPSTREAM. PER CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGES. SOUTH WINDS ARE STAYING UP AT 5-10 MPH...& EXPECT THIS OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO TWEAK TEMPS A BIT DUE TO SOME DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN SPOTS. CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE SMALL DUE TO WIND FLOW. 00Z TLH SOUNDING STILL OVERALL QUITE DRY WITH PW OF 0.62 INCHES...BUT WITH SOME INCREASED MOISTURE FROM SURFACE TO 825 MB...THEN VERY DRY. AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL STILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ON SAT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ALSO S-SW FLOW AT 10-15 INDICATED SFC-10K. RUC & SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE UPPER LOW IN IA PROGRESSING SE & SHOULD DIG MORE SE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. HOW FAR SE IS ALSO KEY TO AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OVER CWA. SURFACE OBS HAVE QUITE A GRADIENT OF COLDER/DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT PUSHING TO EAST TX...CENTRAL AR. GUSTY WINDS TO OVER 30 MPH ARE SHOWING ALONG LEADING EDGE & QUITE FAR BEHIND BOUNDARY. BREEZY & GUSTY WINDS FOR SAT & SUN ARE LOOKING GOOD PER MODELS. SURFACE LOW IN SE MO APPEARS TO BE PUSHING E-NE AT 01Z. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE IN SE AL & WEST BIG BEND. MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVER CWA STILL APPEARS TO BE 12Z-20Z SAT AS LI DOES GO TO -6 DURING 16Z-20Z TIME FRAME. SHOULD SEE WEAK TO MODERATE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. SEVERE THREAT ATTM LOOKS LOW & CURRENT DAY 1-2 HAS IT NORTH OF CWA. WITH SURFACE LOW & UPPER DYNAMICS NORTH OF CWA...THIS LOOKS GOOD. AFTER COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST LATER SAT... DECREASING CLOUDS...COOLER & WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN. MARINE: WILL KEEP SCEC GOING WITH CURRENT & EXPECTED WIND & SEAS. FIRE WEATHER: FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INLAND PANHANDLE COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL SURFACE WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON RH DURATIONS. .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON UNTIL SUNSET SATURDAY FOR INLAND FL PANHANDLE. MCT fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 815 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2000 ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDED ALONG THE KISSIMMEE RIVER BASIN EARLIER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITHIN DRY COLUMN...INTERACTION ONLY RESULTED IN ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ZFP IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...SE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED BY THE ETA. NGM AND RUC CONTINUE A SIMILAR GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WHILE FLOW VEERS TO S...BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER SATURDAY. WILL UP OVERNIGHT WINDS A LITTLE ON EVENING CWF...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. .MLB...NONE. AVIATION/FIRE WX...BRAGAW PUBLIC/MARINE......SPRATT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1015 AM EST FRI APR 7 2000 IMPRESSIVE CONVECTN OVR CNTRL IL MOVG INTO WRN IND ATTM. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER NERN MO WITH A SECOND LOW OVER CNTRL OK. WARM FRONT IS STRETCHED FROM NERN MO TO DELMARVA. LATEST RUC MOVES SFC LOW TO CNTRL IL BY 18Z. THIS IS SIMILAR TO TRACK OF 12Z ETA. H8 JET OF 50 KTS SETS UP OVER OH VLY BY 00Z SAT. H8 JET INCREASES TO 65 KTS BY 06Z OVER UPR OH VLY. GOOD SLY FLOW SHOULD CONT TO PUSH WARM FRONT N. SVR TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN INTO EVNG. CAPE VALUES ARE LOW BUT HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AT SFC IF WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. CURRENT ZNS LOOK GOOD. WILL TAKE OUT MORNING WORDING. .IWX...NONE. OHARA in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1025 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2000 BAND OF HEAVY SNOW FROM HTL TO APN IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. BAND OF SNOW LINES UP REASONABLY WELL WITH AREA OF QG FORCING/DEFORMATION AXIS DEPICTED BY 0Z RUC...FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THUS...CURRENT FORECASTS/HEADLINES LOOK REASONABLE. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR HEAVY SNOW BAND TO STALL FOR AWHILE OVER ADVISORY COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT HIGHEST SNOWFALL REPORT SO FAR FROM ADVISORY AREA AROUND 3 INCHES IN GLADWIN...AND GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AM NOT INCLINED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING AT THIS POINT. THUS...WILL LEAVE ALL HEADLINES/SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS IS FOR NOW. MEANWHILE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT/PRESSURE RISES/SURFACE OBS UPSTREAM SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT PER CURRENT FORECASTS...BUT THIS WILL NOT OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WILL LIKELY NEED TO UPDATE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR DECREASING SNOW TRENDS...AND WILL UPDATE WIND TRENDS AT THAT TIME. .APX...SNOW ADVISORY...TONIGHT...MIZ031>036-041-042. ROWLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1010 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2000 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG VORT MAX IS EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. 300MB RAOB/PROFILER PLOT SHOWS A +100KT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE NEAR OHIO...WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED BACK INTO EASTERN TEXAS. CLOSER TO HOME...SURFACE RIDGE WORKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL METARS/IR SATELLITE SHOW A LINGERING SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND THE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z RUC 500MB RH FIELD SEEMS TO LINE UP BEST WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. RUC FORECAST BRINGS THE BACK EDGE THROUGH MOST OF THE WESTERN CWA BY 06-09Z...AND THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST BY 12Z. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BACK EDGE AGREES WITH THIS TIMING. WINDS ACROSS THE CWA HAVE STAYED UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. 00Z RUC SHOWS THE GRADIENT SLACKENING A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...BUT KEEPS IT UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. 20Z LAMP GUIDANCE AGREES WITH DROPPING THE WINDS OFF ACROSS THE WEST. WITH SLACKENING WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP LOWER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT TEMPS TO STILL STAY A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE FURTHER EAST WITH STRONGER WINDS AND MORE MIXING. .MQT...NONE. JHB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 830 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2000 SNOW BANDS HAVE INTENSIFIED SOMEWHAT IN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS/QG FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND WE JUST RECEIVED A REPORT OF 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN CADILLAC...ALTHOUGH MOST REPORTS ACROSS THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN AROUND 2 INCHES. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM NORTH HAS NOT MADE MUCH ADDITIONAL PROGRESS...AND LATEST RUC DATA SUGGESTS THAT FRONTOGENESIS/QG FORCING WILL SLIDE ONLY SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...WILL UPGRADE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...MBL-CAD-HTL...TO SNOW ADVISORY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SHIFTING SNOW BANDS AND FREQUENT VARIATIONS IN SNOW INTENSITY WITHIN BANDS...EXPECT AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES TO BE LOCALIZED...SO WILL MENTION LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WARNINGS. ALSO...WILL MENTION LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS CURRENT ADVISORY AREA IN SOUTHEAST. FINALLY...WILL BUMP UP TVC-GRAYLING GROUP TO 2-4 INCHES...BUT WILL LEAVE 1-2 INCHES IN LEELANAU COUNTY WITH HEAVIEST BANDS REMAINING SOUTH...AND WILL BUMP ANTRIM TO GLR TO APN GROUP TO 1-2 INCHES. WILL LEAVE THE FAR NORTH AS IS. .APX...SNOW ADVISORY...TONIGHT...MIZ031>036-041-042. ROWLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 245 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2000 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... SFC LOW BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER MO/IL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WAA PCPN SPREADING INTO LOWER MI. LARGE SWATH OF SNOW EXTENDS FROM WEST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ALL THE WAY WEST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN AS THE SFC LOW ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS...WHICH IS A DIRECT REFLECTION OF THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COUPLED 300MB JET STRUCTURE ALOFT. RUC INDICATES LOW WILL TRACK INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA AND DEEPEN TO 999MB/S BY ABOUT SUNSET THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS TIGHTENING. SNOW WILL INTENSIFY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN INITIALLY IN THE SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR IS PULLED SOUTH. FORECAST CONCERNS THIS GO AROUND OBVIOUSLY PERTAIN TO HEADLINES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SPRING STORM SYSTEM. FOR TONIGHT...WAA PCPN WILL BE ONGOING AND INTENSIFYING AT PRESS TIME AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE. 295K SFC INDICATING AROUND 3G/KG OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. FIGURING ON A SIX HOUR BURST OF WAA SNOW...THE GARCIA METHOD WOULD YIELD ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS LIFTING MECHANISM. UPPER WAVE STILL WELL TO THE WEST WILL TRACK EAST AND PRODUCE LIFT VIA DPVA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DPVA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAY BE THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...AS COUPLED JET STRUCTURE PERSISTS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT. DO NOT FEEL WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IS LIKELY GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE FACT THAT THE UPPER WAVE IS LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE SFC LOW AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IN THE OHIO VALLEY CANNOT BE HELPING MOISTURE INFLOW EITHER. WILL OPT FOR A SNOW ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF A HOLLAND...GRAND RAPIDS AND LANSING LINE. WILL MENTION 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY COUNTIES AND 2-4 JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...WITH 1 TO 3 FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST TOWARD JACKSON. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S NORTH...LOW 30S SOUTH. THANKS FOR COORDINATION ON THE HEADLINES APX AND DTX. WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER PROBLEM...AND WILL PLAY THEM UP A BIT IN THE ZONES. FEEL 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 WILL COVER IT TONIGHT...WITH WINDS JUST UNDER HIGH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ALSO THROW IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING WORDING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. ON SATURDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFT OUT. WILL MENTION SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40 LOOK REASONABLE AS APRIL SUNSHINE IS OFFSET SOME BY SNOW PACK. SATURDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW...INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKS AS IF A CHANCE FOR SNOW EXISTS IN THE WAA PATTERN OF THE CLIPPER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. SUNDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE FOR WAA RELATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE ZERO 850MB ISOTHERM NOSES TOWARD THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING WITH A CHC FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S. DUKESHERER EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION... LARGE TROF WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST. THE CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW WITH A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH SRN LWR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVG THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON WITH YET ANOTHER ON WED AFTERNOON. THUS WITH ALL OF THAT ACTIVITY CAN/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW ON MONDAY AND TUE AS H85 TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW 0C. OVERALL DON/T SEE A BIG WARMUP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. .GRR...SNOW ADVISORY FROM OTTAWA...KENT...IONIA...CLINTON COUNTIES NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MASON...LAKE...OSCEOLA AND CLARE COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1045 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 WL CONT WINTER STORM WARNING IN SRN ZONE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW BUT WL BEGIN TO TRIM SEVERAL NRN COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MID LEVEL DEFORMATION INCREASING OVR FAR SRN AREA THROUGH 20Z...THEN DIMINISHING IN THE LATTER HALF OF AFTN. WL MOST LKLY TRIM BACK ON PRECIP IN CENTRAL ZONES AND DROP FM NORTH. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS CUT OFF TO SOUTH AND EAST AND HEAVIEST PRECIP LINING UP WELL WITH STRONG FORCING ASSOCD WITH POSSIBLE COUPLING JETS OVER ERN IA/IL/SRN WI. .MSP...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY MN ZNS 73>75..82>85..91>93. KAVINSKY mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1135 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 WILL CLEAN UP ZONES SHORTLY TO ADJUST TIMING AND WORDING FOR STRONG WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FA. MSAS DATA AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WINDS FROM NEAR KTOP SWWD TO KEMP TO NRN OKLAHOMA. DISTANCE/SPEED PROGS ON THIS LINE PLACE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS INTO NWRN CWA AROUND 1 PM...AND ACROSS REMAINDER OF ADVISORY AREA BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS ALSO SHOWING LINE OF TCU DEVELOPING ALONG INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROF FROM CAMDENTON SWWD INTO CHEROKEE COUNTY KANSAS. BEST ECHOS AS OF 1130 AM AROUND THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS. LINE OF TCU MOVING SEWD INTO AREA WHERE 15Z RUC FCSTS INDICATE UP TO 2000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE AND ERODING CAP PER LAPS DATA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO CURRENT FCST. KSGF WILL PERFORM AN 18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING. .SGF...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON NW OF A BRANSON (TANEY CO) TO ROLLA (PHELPS CO) LINE. HUDSON mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 850 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 THREE CONTRIBUTORS TO DECREASING WINDS HAVE ALLOWED THE DISCONTINUANCE OF THE WIND ADVISORY. THE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING...THE ISALLOBARIC MAXIMUM HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE...AND OF COURSE NORMAL NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING. WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO DECREASE. DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF NEBRASKA ARE INTO THE UPPER TEENS WITH 20S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OF CONCERN. THUS LOWERED THE LOW TEMPS FOR THE NIGHT JUST A LITTLE. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKING GOOD. OBSERVED DATA AND 00 RUC USED IN UPDATE. RUC SHOWS CONTINUED LLVL DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO CWA. .OMA...NONE. BYRD ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1030 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2000 WRMFNT APCHG SRN FRINGE OF OH-CNTRL WV ATTM. SATPIX SHOW WDSPRD SC GENERALLY N OF KFZY-KPSF AXIS WITH MTN WAVE DOWNWIND OF ADRNDCKS... SOME CI CREEPING INTO WRN NY AND WAA PAT CLDS ACRS SWRN THREE QTRS PLUS OF PA. RUC NOTES RISING H5 HGTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND SOUNDINGS OUT OF KBUF...KPIT AND KILN SUPPORTIVE OF ASSORTED AC LYRS. SC OVR NRN DIST MAY GIVE LESS MIXING...SMALL UPWD TEMP REVISION FOR KPOU AREA...WL REINTRODUCE PCPN IN CTSKLS IN SCND PD...OTRW ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS ON EXISTING THEME. MCKINLEY/LAB .ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE. ny EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1040 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER EXTREME SE NE THRU ERN KS TO SW OK...WITH IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES NOTED OVER MOST OF KS AND NW/NCTRL OK. RUC/ETA SHOW 40-50KT H85 FLOW WORKING INTO FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH TREMENDOUS SUBSIDENCE. RESULTANT MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR THESE STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SFC...SO CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD TO ME. BAND OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NE OK/NW AR HANDLED WELL BY RUC BNDRY LYR RH PROGS...AND SHUD SEE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN FROM KS. TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO GET RATHER WARM OVER SE OK/NW AR...ALTHO TEMPS MAY STEADY OUT OR SLOWLY DROP THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE FROPA. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 16Z OBS BEFORE UPDATED ZONE ISSUANCE. FCSTID = 18 .TUL... AR...WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029. OK...WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES OKZ054>076. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 920 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 LATEST MSAS ANLYS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SWRN SD...AS FORECAST EARLIER AND STILL IN LINE WITH LATEST RUC. LATEST RUC FCSTD SFC WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY...AND WILL TURN TO THE SW AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SE WITH NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WILL NEATEN UP WINDS AND MAKE OTHER COSMETIC CHANGES. UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT. .ABR...NONE. HINTZ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 905 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2000 WAITING FOR THE CONVECTION TO REACH OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING ...WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED COLD FRONT FROM SRN CORNER OF IL ACROSS SE TIP OF MO SWWD TO JUST NW OF LIT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IS CONFINED TO A RATHER NARROW BAND WHICH EXTENDS EAST JUST ACROSS THE MISS RIVER. ACTIVE LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO W TN ATTM...WITH WATCH AT LEAST FOR MIDDLE TN POSSIBLE. VIEWING 08/00Z SOUNDINGS JUST IN AWIPS...FINDS ACTUAL CAPES AT BNA AND BHM RUNNING BELOW WHAT ETA MODEL HAD PREDICTED. LATE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW MORE TIME FOR AIRMASS TO BECOME EVEN MORE STABLE. STRONG WIND FIELDS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...THUS WE WILL WATCH DEVELOPMENTS OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE DOWNPLAYING RISK OF SEVERE OVERNIGHT IN AN UPDATED SPS. ZONES WILL NEED AT LEAST COSMETIC TWEAKS TO REMOVE EARLY OR EVENING WORDING. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS 850 MB WINDS REACHING 45 KTS BY 09Z...SO WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR PLATEAU AND MTN COUNTIES. .MRX... NC...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE/CLAY COUNTIES. TN...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. VA...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR LEE AND WISE COUNTIES. TG tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 914 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS CWFA LATE THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY... MAINTAINING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 9 PM STILL OCCURRING TO THE NORTH IN OKLAHOMA. WITH 01Z RUC MODEL PROGGING STRONG 850 MILLIBAR HEIGHT GRADIENT AND WINDS OVERNIGHT...GOOD MIXING WILL CONTINUE. WILL INCREASE WINDS IN ZONE PACKAGE UPDATE...WITH A SUBSIDING TREND OVERNIGHT. WHILE PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS STILL OCCURRING...COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE ITS MENTION IN NOWCASTS. .SJT...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TONIGHT ALL ZONES. 19 N tx DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 755 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 WL BUMP POPS...ISSUED WIND ADV...INCREASE WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS UPDATE. RUC OUT TO 09Z INFERS DESTABILIZATION OF ATM OVR DEEP S TX PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF DEEP CF AT 10 TO 11Z. VORT MAX (12.4 /1E5S) CENTERED JUST N OF JIM HOGG AT 5 AM CDT. AT THIS SAME TIME...RUC SHOWS SWI'S -3.5 TO -4 IN THAT SAME VICINITY WITH N AND NE WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH JUST N OF VLY. RH VALUES FM 1000-500MB NOT IMPRESSIVE...WITH MSTR ADVECTION FM THE NE GULF INTO VLY AREA AT ONLY 40-50%. MESOETA PLACES MOST UNSTABLE AMS MORE WEST...OVR ZAPATA COUNTY BY 4 AM WITH CF PLACED FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE VLY THEN AND LITTLE RAFL PROGD (ALTHOUGH OMEGA AT H7 PROGD AT 10 (-UBARS/S) ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CF. AVN/NGM AND ETA ALL SHOW SUM SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE BY EARLY SAT MRNG (5-7 AM CDT). WOULD AGREE WITH THIS BASED ON DEPTH OF CF AND N COMPONENT ALONG WITH AMPLE WV AVAILABLE FM ADJ COAST. ALL MDLS SEE POTENTIAL FOR 30-35 KTS OF WIND WITH THIS FROPA...WITH ETA AND NGM KEEPING DIRECTION N AND AVN NE. WOULD SIDE WITH NGM/ETA ON DIRECTION AS RUC AND MESOETA CONCUR AND WILL PLACE WINDS AT THEIR PROPER MAGNITUDE...30 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTY EARLY SAT MRNG...DECREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY BY NOON...FINALLY DOWN TO N AT 15 MPH BY 7 PM. WILL POST A WIND ADVISORY FOR VLY NOW...TO ALLOW FOR RESIDENTS TO PREPARE FOR HIGH WINDS PRIOR TO THEIR AWAKENING. THE LAST FRAME OF IR STLT PICS SHOW TSTM DEVELOPMENT BACK BUILDING AGGRESSIVELY INTO KBMQ AT 0015Z. THIS MAY BE A PRECURSOR FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WESTWARD...WHICH WOULD ONLY SPELL EARLY MRNG TSTMS FOR DEEP S TX. ENUF CURRENT TRENDS EXIST...ALONG WITH UPDATED MDLS TO BUMP POPS FOR EARLY MRNG FROPA. MARINE...NO NEED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE VIOLENT WINDSHIFT AND PREVAILING 30 TO 35 KT FLOW OVR ALL OF THE LWR TX GULF WATERS SAT MRNG. ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE IN GALE CRITERIA...XPCT CLOSE MAGNITUDES AND WILL ALERT MARINE COMMUNITY TO THIS. MWS ISSUED AT 440 PM THRU 9 AM SAT...HIGHLIGHTS DANGERS POSED BY THIS FROPA. SYN...PHILO 58/HMT...ABBOTT WFO BRO INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV .BRO...SCA GMZ130-150-155-170-175 FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WIND ADVISORY POSTED FOR ALL OF VLY THRU EARLY SAT PM. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1130 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 AVIATION DISCUSSION...ANALYSIS FROM LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH NEAR A LINE FROM MUSKOGEE...TO WICHITA FALLS. THE COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE TROUGH ABOUT 40 MILES. NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-30 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL PLAN TO BRING THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE DFW SITES NEAR 20Z...THEN ACROSS THE ACT AREA AROUND 00Z. STRONG WIND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z. TSRA CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST SITES. SKC CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COORD WITH CWSU ZFW. 83 955 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY IS TIMING OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BETWEEN AMARILLO AND LUBBOCK NORTHEAST TO LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS SOMETHING BETWEEN 18Z-20Z. CONTINUITY MIGHT SUGGEST EARLIER TIME...BUT WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT SOMETIMES TENDS TO SLOW MOVEMENT DOWN DURING DAY. THIS ARGUES MORE FOR LATTER TIME...WHICH IS PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL GO WITH. AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY BE BUMPED UP A CATEGORY BASED ON THIS SCENARIO. OTHER PROBLEM IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. STRONG CAP SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS SUPPRESSED NORTH CENTRAL AREA...BUT FRONT MAY WEAKEN IT EASTERN TEXAS LATER TODAY. GOOD TURNING ALONG FRONT AND SOUTH ALONG DRY LINE WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO BECOME RAPIDLY SEVERE. WE LIKE SPC OUTLOOK AREA...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY EXTEND WEST TO THE NON-SEVERE LINE. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING. 03 .FTW...WIND ADVISORY TODAY...ENTIRE AREA. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 955 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY IS TIMING OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BETWEEN AMARILLO AND LUBBOCK NORTHEAST TO LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS SOMETHING BETWEEN 18Z-20Z. CONTINUITY MIGHT SUGGEST EARLIER TIME...BUT WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT SOMETIMES TENDS TO SLOW MOVEMENT DOWN DURING DAY. THIS ARGUES MORE FOR LATTER TIME...WHICH IS PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL GO WITH. AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY BE BUMPED UP A CATEGORY BASED ON THIS SCENARIO. OTHER PROBLEM IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. STRONG CAP SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS SUPPRESSED NORTH CENTRAL AREA...BUT FRONT MAY WEAKEN IT EASTERN TEXAS LATER TODAY. GOOD TURNING ALONG FRONT AND SOUTH ALONG DRY LINE WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO BECOME RAPIDLY SEVERE. WE LIKE SPC OUTLOOK AREA...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY EXTEND WEST TO THE NON-SEVERE LINE. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING. 03 .FTW...WIND ADVISORY TODAY...ENTIRE AREA. tx WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 243 AM MDT SAT APR 8 2000 IN THE SHORT TERM SHARP RIDGE OVER GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TODAY. MODELS DID WELL INITIALIZING THE RIDGE LINE WHEN COMPARED TO SATELLITE. ETA AND RUC PICKED UP WEAK VORT MAX OVER NV THAT WAS PRODUCING SOME ENHANCED CLD WEST OF THE RIDGELINE. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE...BUT RUC STILL RESOLVES IT OVER ERN UT AND WRN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... SO XPC THIN HI CLDS OVER MUCH OF CWA THIS AFTN...BUT NOT ENUF TO MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE HI TEMP. TOUGH DECISION ABOUT WHICH DAY WILL BE WARMEST. AVN HAS BEEN CONSISTENT LAST FEW RUNS IN MAKING SUN THE WARMEST AT GJT...BUT IT OVER PREDICTED HI TEMPS EARLIER THIS WEEK FOR A FEW RUNS UNTIL REALITY CAUGHT UP WITH THE PREDICTED WARMING TREND. WITH UPR RIDGELINE PASSING AROUND 00Z THIS AFTN AND ONLY MILD BREEZINESS EXPECTED TODAY...FWC/FAN HI TEMPS LOOK GOOD. SUN WINDS STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING CD FNT...WITH FNT ALG CO/UT BORDER LATE SUN AFTN. BOTH ETA AND NGM CARRY WARMEST 700 MB TEMPS OVER THE CWA TDA...WHILE AVN IS SLOWEST TO BOOST WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE AND WARMS THINGS UP SUN. RIGHT NOW SUN LOOKS A LOT LIKE THURS ...WINDY BUT NOT AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAY. SO WILL GO WITH NGM TREND AND DROP HI TEMP A FEW DEGREES SUN. IN THE EXTENDED LOOKS LIKE NEXT TROF STILL ON TRACK FOR MON AND TUE WITH NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW AND A BIT OF MOISTURE BRINGING LOW GRADE POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HI TEMPS SPREADING FROM NW TO SE. CUOCO WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORMAL LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY. .GJT...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 315 AM CDT SAT APR 8 2000 TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY. 08Z SFC ANLYS SHOWED HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER WRN KS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE DKTS. PRES FALLS AND RUC MODEL SUGGEST HIGH WILL MOVE TO CNTRL OK BY EARLY AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WIND TO SHIFT TO THE SW BY NOON OVER THE WRN ZONES AND DURING THE AFTN ERN ZONES. THERE IS NO SNOWCOVER IN OUR AREA...BUT IF THERE IS MUCH LEFT TO THE NORTH IN SD...SWRN MN OR NWRN IA ON SUNDAY...IT COULD AFFECT HIGHS IN THE NRN ZONES. WILL USE A COMPROMISE OF THE WARMER AVN AND COOLER NGM MOS FOR TODAY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE AVN. 00Z MODELS ARE NOW QUITE A BIT FASTER WITH THE CDFNT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS AND DECENT NIGHT FOR MIXING...BUT AIR IS DRY SO HAVE DROPPED LOWS FOR TONIGHT JUST A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. EXPECT SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS TNGT...THEN INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE SUNDAY. WITH AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER... AND A NORTH WIND BECOMING NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTN...THE AVN LOOKS TO WARM. CHANGES OF THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS SUGGEST THAT MAXES ON SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THOSE TODAY. SOME LIFT AND QG FORCING MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MIGHT MAKE SOME OTHER SLIGHT CHANGES TO 3-5 DAY FCST BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE MRF IF IT ARRIVES IN TIME. FIRST DRAFT OF THE WORK ZONES WAS JUST SENT. .OMA...NONE. MILLER ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 240 AM SAT APR 8 2000 MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT AS PER PMD. MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION IS DMINISHING AND MAY NOT BE A THREAT TIL MID AFTERNOON AND MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CLT-CAE-AGS LINE. CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN MOVING RIGHT ALONG WITH THE RUC'S K-INDEX AXIS. TIMING PUTS IT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK BUT MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER EASTERN SC WHERE INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE STORMS. WILL NOT MENTION POSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN CWA DUE TO TIMING. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY UP AND GO WINDY IN THE ZONES AND EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP IT WELL MIXED AND WILL GO ABOVE FWC FORECAST MINS WITH MID 30S OR 35 TO 40. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL ALSO CUT FORECAST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. .CAE...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES TODAY. SJN sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1052 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2000 CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW ACROSS WRN NY/PA...WITH SATELLITE IR LOOPS SHOWING BACK EDGE OF COLD CONVEYOR BELT ENHANCED/HIGHER CLOUD TOPS PROGRESSING RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST THROUGH NC/NE LOWER MI. WILL UPDATE THE ERN UPR/NRN LWR MI FORECAST TO WORD MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. BEHIND UPPER TROUGH AXIS...STRONG NDVA/UPPER CONVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE IS NOTED AS THE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS BECOMES MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC. ONLY CONCERN WAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS. HOWEVER...WITH THE SUBSIDENCE AND DEGREE OF DRY AIR MIXING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS ON BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS...BELIEVE EVEN SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY. 12Z RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICT THIS RATHER WELL...WITH...DESPITE DECENT SFC-850 MB INSTABILITY BY LATE IN THE DAY...LOW-LEVEL PARCELS TOO DRY FOR MOIST CONVECTION. UPDATED ERN UPR/NRN LWR MI ZONE FORECAST TO FOLLOW AROUND 11 AM. .APX...NONE. HURLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1005 AM EST SAT APR 8 2000 DISC...FRONT AT 13Z WAS NEAR A EKN TO ATL LINE AND HAS SHOWN A QUICK PROGRESSION EASTERN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS MOTION IS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET OF 130 KTS MOVING ALONG A LIT TO BHM TRAJECTORY. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THE FRONT'S MOTION SHOWS THE FRONT REACHING OUR COAST BETWEEN 22 AND 00Z. THE EXTRAPOLATION AGREES CLOSELY WITH THE 06Z ETA. AS MENTION BY PREVIOUS SHIFT AND SPC MOISTURE IS INDEED THE KEY INGREDIENT THAT APPEARS TO BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO AREAS OF RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE FIRST IS SKIRTING THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE SECOND IS JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FOR OUR CWA AS SW FLOW WILL KEEP IT SHUNTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WIND PROFILES SHOW A SPEED SHEAR PROFILE WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...WET-BULB ZEROS ARE RATHER LOW RANGING BETWEEN 6000-7000 SO IF DEEP CONVECTION COULD GET STARTED HAIL MAY ALSO BE IN THE MIX. WITH ALL THESE INGREDIENTS AND CURRENT TRENDS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO IF ANY PROBLEMS DEVELOP FOR CWA WOULD EXPECT THEM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CWF...CURRENTLY WINDS AT FPSN7 AND 41004 ARE RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS ARE 4 FEET. MODELS STILL ARE TO QUICK ON THE INCREASE OF WINDS. WITH FRONT PROGGED TO MAKE IT TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GALE. 12Z RUC INDICATING THAT SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE JUST BELOW GALE CRITERIA BUT WITH FAST MOVING FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE GALE FOR THIS PACKAGE. .ILM...GALE WARING AMZ250-252-254-256. HAWKINS nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1047 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2000 STORM SYS TO MOVE NE ACRS NY STATE TODAY AND THEN ACRS NEW ENG TONITE. COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION (MOSTLY ACRS NORTHERN NY) ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYS TONITE. UPR TROF TO CONTINUE TO DIG ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED TONITE. 09Z RUC SHOWS SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ACRS MUCH OF THE FA TODAY (EXPECT ACRS THE ST LAW VLY) WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN THE ST LAW VLY TO THE L-M60S IN VT. SEEMS A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE IN THE ST LAW VLY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THERE. BEST MOISTURE (AND SFC MOIST FLUX CONV) TO BE LOCATED ACRS NY STATE TODAY. RUC INDICATING MAX CAPE VALUES OF 200 TO 700 J/KG ACRS NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON (VT TO REMAIN CAPPED TODAY). WINDEX (THAT/S THE SUMMERTIME WINDEX) VALUES ARE 20-35 KTS AND MUCH OF FA WILL BE IN A SFC-H7 SHEAR AREA OF >20 KTS TODAY. ALL ABOVE SPELLS BEST CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN TODAY WILL BE IN THE ST LAW VLY (FURTHEREST WEST PART OF FA). RISK FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL DEPEND MORE ON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THE FURTHER EAST ACRS THE FA THAT YOU GO. CURRENTLY SNOWING AT YOW ATTM...BUT RUC KEEPS COLD AIR AT BAY IN CANADA TODAY...SO WON/T HAVE TO DEAL WITH THAT THREAT UNTIL LATER TONITE. GOOD H85 WAA ACRS THE FA TODAY TO BE REPLACED BY GOOD CAA TONITE. MORE MOISTURE TO SWEEP ACRS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONITE WITH MAIN AXIS OF PCPN SHIFTING EAST ACRS THE FA. PW VALUES APPEAR TO BE AROUND AN INCH. WILL CONT FFA FOR TONITE AND SUNDAY. H85 TEMPS GO NEGATIVE FROM WEST TO EAST (MOSTLY ACRS NORTHERN NY) OVRNITE TONITE. RAIN TO SNOW LOOKS GOOD FOR THE NY SIDE OVRNITE TONITE. WILL LOOK AT THAT EVENT MORE CLOSELY FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. MORNING VIS SAT PIX SHOW DOWNSLOPING OFF THE WHITE MTNS OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN NH/NORTHERN CT VLY ATTM WITH GOOD WIND-FLOW ALONG WESTERN VT SCOURING OUT THE CLDS PRETTY WELL. GOOD SE SFC FLOW ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS ATTM WITH GUSTY WINDS A LIKELIHOOD IN THE FAVORED SE-NW ORIENTATED VLYS. HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE MORNING UPDATE PACKAGE. HAVE ALSO RE-SPLIT ZONES FROM WEST TO EAST (FROM THE CHAMP VLY EASTWARD) DUE TO ABOVE CHANGES IN WIND FORECAST AND EXPECTED CLD COVER DIFFERENCES THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKED MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED ON LATEST OBS TRENDS AND 11Z LAMP DATA. WORK ZONES GONE. FINAL ZFP IN A BIT. .BTV...FLOOD WATCH VTZ001>012-NYZ026>031-034-035 TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MURRAY vt SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 903 AM MST SAT APR 8 2000 SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS HAS PUSHED GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING BUST INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE WIND AND DUST WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND KEEP PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DISCUSSION...HAVING PROBLEMS WITH WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST WHICH HAS APPARENTLY BLOWN IN FROM WEST TX/S NM AND IS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT AROUND 8KFT. THE DUST ISN'T VERY DENSE BUT IT IS WIDESPREAD AND RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES TO MVFR (3-5MI). IT LOOKS PRETTY GROSS OUTSIDE OUR WINDOW AT THE MOMENT WITH VISIBILITIES 6 MILES AND FALLING. WE'LL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WINDS AS MM5 AND 12Z RUC SHOW THEM PEAKING BETWEEN 15-18Z AT 25KTS AND THEN HOLDING AT 15-25KTS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THAT, IF WE DON'T SEE THINGS COME UP FURTHER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR 2, WE'LL MOST LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY, DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, SO EVEN IF THE WINDS DO COME UP WE SHOULD STAY OUT OF RED FLAG LEVELS. BASED ON SLUGGISH TEMP RISES AND PENETRATION OF THE MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE E CWA, WE'LL LOWER HIGHS THERE A NOTCH. REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE WITH SE GRADIENT ENDING TONIGHT, ONLY TO TIGHTEN UP FROM THE SW TOMORROW. PYTLAK .TWC...NONE. az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 220 PM CDT SAT APR 8 2000 PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY MDT-STG WNW UPPER FLOW AND OCCASIONAL SHRTWV TROFS MOVG IN FROM ERN PAC. STORM WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO SRN WISC FRI WL STRENGTHEN BLOCKING PAT OVR WRN ATLANTIC NXT 48-72 HRS. SYS MOVG OVR SRN MANITOBA NICELY DEPICTED ON WV IMAGERY AND 18Z RUC. SHRTWV TROF WL QUICKLY MOV ACRS NRN AND CNTRL WI OVRNGT...BRINGING CLDS AND SCT LGT PCPN...MAINLY N...IN LEFT-FRONT EXIT REGION OF UPR LVL JET. 12Z SHORT-RANGE MODELS ALL SIMILAR ON MVMT OF THESE FEATURES. BHD DEPARTING SHRTWV...STG SUBSIDENCE/SIG ISENT DECENT TAKES OVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES. RELATIVELY FAVORABLE TRAJ AND INCR THERMAL INSTAB WL BRING LK SUPERIOR EFFECT SC AND SNSH- TO VILAS CO...ESP IN AFTN...BUT SUBSIDENCE IS STG. 12Z NGM MOS AND AVN GUID TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS IN FAR N MAY ACTUALLY STEADY/FALL DURING AFTN IN CAA. CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RELAXING P-GRAD SUNDAY NGT WL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL 6-12 DEGS BLO NORMS. AVN GUID TEMPS FOR SUN NGT SEEM A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE. MID-HIGH CLOUDS THEN STREAM IN ON MONDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP ACRS MIDWEST AND UPR FLOW BACKS TO THE W. SHRTWV TROFS IN NRN AND SRN STREAM BEGIN MOVG TWD REGION. .GRB...NONE. JKL WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB wi