SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 940 AM MST THU APR 6 2000 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ARIZONA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND... PRODUCING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN ARIZONA...ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. .DISCUSSION... LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY ALOFT AS SHOWN ON 12Z SOUNDINGS HANDLED VERY GOOD BY 00Z MODELS. MY ANALYSIS WOULD SHOW A FLAT UPPER RIDGE NOW TRAVERSING THE STATE...COMPARED TO SEVERAL WEAK RIPPLES THAT ARE DEPICTED ON LATEST RUC. NOTE ERROR ON RUC 500MB INITIALIZATION INVOF FGZ. IN ANY CASE...DRY WX TO CONTINUE AS FURTHER AMPLIFICATION TAKES PLACE ACROSS OUR CWFA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN FACT THE 500MB HEIGHTS NOW APPEAR 20-30M HIGHER FRIDAY MORNING OVER IMP/YUMA COMPARED TO PREV ETA OUTPUT. AND BY SATURDAY MORNING NEW ETA PUSHES RIDGE AXIS RIGHT OVERHEAD FOR ANOTHER 20-30M RISE. WITH CLOSED LOW REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AND DIFLUENT 200-300MB WINDS CONTINUE...WE SHOULD SEE CI CLOUDINESS ADVANCE ACROSS THE STATE. MOSTLY THIN CI TO HAVE LTL OR NO AFFECT ON TEMPS. AVIATION AND PUBLIC FCSTS IN GOOD SHAPE. SIPPLE N az WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 900 AM EDT THU APR 6 2000 THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING AND THE RUC BASICALLY CONFIRM WHAT THE CURRENT FORECAST IS RUNNING. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY BUT WITH A PWAT OF .23 INCHES IF WE SEE A CLOUD OUT THERE IT WILL BE REAL LONELY. WATER TEMPERATURES COOLED QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURE AT EGMONT DROPPING TO 69.6 DEGREES AND 63 DEGREES AT HOMOSASSA. WITH THOSE KIND OF WATER TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD SEABREEZE. THE ONLY CHANGE I PLAN TO MAKE IS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. THE COASTAL LOOK GREAT...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED. HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LUCKILY WINDS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR IN FIRE DANGER. BUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SEABREEZE INFLUENCED AREAS HUMIDITIES WILL BE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. .TBW...RED FLAG WARNING ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT THOSE AREAS WITHIN 20 MILES OF GULF COAST. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AREAS WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE GULF COAST. FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FRIDAY FOR INLAND ZONES 43-52-56- 57-61 SOBIEN fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1040 PM EDT THU APR 6 2000 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE WITH CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED NRN LWR MI EARLIER THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WIND SPEEDS. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WRAP-AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ERN UPR AND NE LWR MI...MOVING TO THE EAST. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK REMAINS MOST EXTENSIVE OVER THESE REGIONS...WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE TO THE SW AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NEUTRAL/ANTICYCLONIC. LATEST (21Z) RUC AND 18Z ETA SHOW LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW NW-SE AND CYCLONIC SW-NE OF THE REGION RESPECTIVELY. THEY ALSO SHOW INCREASED UPPER CONVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE WORKING IN AS PLANNED. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NEUTRAL/LESS CYCLONIC OVERNIGHT...ONE WOULD EXPECT LOW LEVEL DRYING TO CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE FROM W TO E. RUC IN FACT DEPICTS THE 1000-700 MB 75% MEAN RH CONTOUR ACROSS THE EXTREME ERN PORTION OF UPPER MI BY 06Z...THEN E OF UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z. HOWEVER...ONLY POTENTIAL FLAW IN WHAT LOOKS LIKE A PROGRESSIVE CLEARING TREND...ONE THAT OCCURS ALL TOO OFTEN...IS WITH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. MODELS SHOW 925-850 MB COOLING WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHERLY/NNW FLOW (900 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -8C ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 09-12Z). LAKE CLOUDS IN FACT SEEM TO BE FILLING IN ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...EVEN UNDERNEATH A MORE NEUTRAL/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN. WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN FOR ERN UPR MI...ESPECIALLY (IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER CLOUDS) CONSIDERING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING RATHER QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EVEN THOUGH LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LWR...BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OPTED FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS (VS. MOSTLY CLEAR). 00Z RUNS JUST NOW COMING IN. SO FAR...IT APPEARS LATEST ETA FORECAST POSITION/STRENGTH OF APPROACHING SYSTEM IS CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR (12Z) FORECAST. .APX...WINTER STORM WATCH...FRIDAY NIGHT...MIZ029-030-034>036-041-042. HURLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 916 PM EDT FRI APR 6 2000 ONLY UPDATE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TO ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM AC AND CIRRUS MOVING OUR WAY... AND THE 18Z ETA AND LATEST RUC SUGGEST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER OUR AREA BY MORNING. WILL GO WITH INCREASING CLOUD WORDING FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD... AND MAY BUMP LOW TEMPERATURES UP A BIT GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. TRH .GRR...WINTER STORM WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 PM CDT THU APR 6 2000 FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...SNOW TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES. SYSTEM STILL COMING TOGETHER WITH THE ATMOSPHERE GOING THROUGH SATURATION PROCESS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING INITIAL VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. STRONG WESTERN SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. MODELS HAVE THIS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND INTENSIFYING ACROSS SODAK AND NEBRASKA DURING THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 21Z RUC WAS INDICATING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN AVN/ETA...CLOSER TO NGM. STILL DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE NORTH PART OF MN AND WHEN ATMOSPHERE DOES SATURATE...WILL LIKELY SEE MAINLY SNOW IN MN. RADAR RETURNS SHOW SOME SNOW POSSIBLY FALLING IN WESTERN DAKOTAS NOW. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. AT LEAST ONE-HALF INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO ADVECT NORTH THROUGH AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AVN/ETA COMBO FOCUSING INTO SOUTHWEST BY 12Z THU. THOUGHTS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK TO BE IN LINE NOW. IT LOOKS LIKE 00Z MODEL RUN WILL HAVE TO SHOW EVENTUAL SOLUTION OF SNOW AMOUNTS IN FAR SOUTHERN MN. COULD HAVE POTENTIAL 6 INCH AMOUNT IN FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WILL DOCTOR UP ZONES A BIT...CLOUDS...PRECIP TYPE...TIMING AND TEMPERATURES IN UPDATE. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LEFT AS IS. .MSP...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...SOUTH OF REDWOOD FALLS...ST PETER ...OWATONNA LINE. mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1030 AM CDT THU APR 6 2000 FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ADD SOME CLOUDINESS. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER AREA AND CLOUDINESS NOW IN DAKOTAS WILL SPREAD EAST. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT FOR CUMULUS FORMATION IN ERN ZONES AS WELL. BASED OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LATEST RUC MODEL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY. .MSP...NONE. SCOTT mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 738 PM CDT THU APR 6 2000 LATEST RUC SHOWS STRONG WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA WITH FROPA OVERNIGHT. BL WINDS VERIFYING FAIRLY WELL WITH PRESENT CONDITIONS. WILL BLANKET THE REST OF THE CWA WITH WIND ADVISORY FOR OVERNIGHT... PARTICULARLY FOR FROPA. BEEN GETTING CALLS ABOUT A GRASS FIRE BURNING OUT OF CONTROL IN NORTHERN CUSTER COUNTY. SO FAR ECHOES ON RADAR NOT PRODUCING ANYTHING EXCEPT SPRINKLES AT BEST. HAD A REPORT OF TS AT IML...CALLED AROUND AND COULD NOT GET ANY CONFIRMATION THOUGH. .LBF...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ENTIRE CWA. SLM ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1025 AM EDT THU APR 6 2000 AN AWFUL LOT OF CLD-FREE AIR ACRS WRN THIRD OR SO OF NY PER LATEST SATPIX. 12Z KALY SOUNDING WAS QUITE MOIST OVER A RATHER DP LYR...BUT KBUF SOUNDING ONLY LOOKS GOOD FOR SOME SHLW SC AND PERHAPS SOME THIN CI...KDTX APPEARS EVEN MORE MSTR STARVED. WL OPT FOR LESS GLOOMY AFTN FCST...BUT CLDS MORE APT TO PERSIST IN NRN DIST CLOSER TO SFC LOW...BEING THE LAST TO GET OUT OF WAA PAT IN THE VERY SHORT TERM AND LKLY TO STAY IN WRAP ARND MSTR LONGER TNGT. LATEST RUC INDICATES BEST UPR SUPPORT IN THE N THIS AFTN AND MINIMAL ASSOCD PCPN. A FEW UPWD TEMP TWEAKS PSBL PER ADDED SUNSHINE THIS AFTN. MCKINLEY/KDL .ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE. ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 945 AM EDT THU APR 6 2000 NO CHANGES PLANNED W/ THIS UPDATE. UA ANALYSIS INDICATES ZONAL/NEARLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER REGION THIS MORNING W/ SFC HI PRES OFF THE E CST OF FL IN CONTROL. SAT PIX/OBS SHOW SKC CONDITIONS & AREA SOUNDINGS BONE DRY SO SUNNY SKIES TO CONTINUE. LO-LVL THICKNESS SCHEMES GIVE MID 70S THROUGHOUT BUT FCST MAX TEMPS OFF RAOBS IN LWR 80S. LAMP GUIDANCE SHOWS 75-80 BUT TEMPS ALREADY A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER AT 13Z. WILL LEAVE IN UPR 70S FOR NOW. SOUNDINGS & VWP SHOW 25-30KT JUST OFF THE SFC WHICH ARE BEGINNING TO MIX DOWN. WINDS ALREADY G20KT AT ILM & G18KT AT MYR. CWF: WINDS SLOWLY BUILDING AT FPSN7 & 41004 AS GRAD BETWEEN HI & FNT TO OUR N TIGHTENS. 12Z RUC KEEPS SRN WATERS BELOW CRITERIA WHILE 06Z ETA BRINGS IN 25KT. BASED ON CURRENT READINGS WILL LEAVE FLAGS ALONE & LET FCSTS RIDE. .ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVY SURF CITY NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC. LGE nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 915 PM CDT THU APR 6 2000 OTHER THAN SOME WINDS DIRECTIONS PLAYING HAVOC WITH CURRENT WORDING...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. LATEST RUC HAS GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT WIND SITUATION AND IT SHOWS MOST AREAS WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY 06Z. SOME CIRRUS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS AREA WITH MORE ON THE WAY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SO WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING NORTH AND CENTRAL. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED. UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORLTY. 30 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. ok CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 940 PM EDT THU APR 06 2000 ...WORK ZONES OUT AS PHLADMCTP... SC DECK OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AS S/WV EXITS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...IR IMAGERY NOW SHOWING SCT HI CLOUDINESS DRIFTING INTO PA FROM THE WEST. NOT MUCH TO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. TEMPS SEEM ON TRACK AND MOST SPOTS SHOULD AVERAGE OUT "PT CLOUDY" JUDGING FROM SATELLITE TRENDS AND LATEST RUC. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWNWARD IN SOME SPOTS FOR FRIDAY. 18Z ETA SHOWING A LL SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN DESPITE 8H TEMPS IN THE 3-5C RANGE. .CTP...NONE. FITZGERALD pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 930 PM CDT THU APR 6 2000 AT THIS POINT FEEL IT NECESSARY TO STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST. LATEST RUC WOULD STILL CRANK OUT HIGHEST AMOUNT OF PCPN OVER NORTHERN SD. HOWEVER NEW ETA IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH PLACEMENT OF PCPN ALTHO IT HAS BACKED OFF ON AMOUNTS. ANYWAY TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES SO STILL NEED ALOT OF MOIESTENING TO TAKE PLACE AND THAT SHOULD BE OCCURRING NOW WITH DECENT LOOKING ECHOES ON RADAR MOSAIC. SOME CONCERN ABOUT TYPE OF PCPN INITIALLY BUT ONSET SHOULD BRING TEMPS DOWN RATHER DRAMTICALLY SO WILL STICK WITH ALL SNOW MENTION AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW NO UPDATES. .ABR...SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. TDK sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 835 PM CDT THU APR 6 2000 THE BEST THING I CAN DO FOR THE FCST PKG WITH ALL THE WINTER STORM AND SNOW ADVISORY HEADLINES...IS NOTHING. WHILE THIS EVE 00Z SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW DRY LOW LVLS /LBF RAOB PRETTY DRY UNDER 600 MB/ STILL NEED TO KEEP THE FAITH IN THE MDLS AND THE SCIENCE. 18Z MESOETA CONTINUES TO INDICATE SIGINFICANT LIFT N OF THE E MOVG SFC LO IN NEBRASKA AS MOISTURE CONVERGES /AND SATURATES/ ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS IS NOT TOO SAY THAT THERE ARE NOT SOME FCST CONCERNS. FIRST...BEING THAT THIS SYSTEM IS FROTALGENIC SOMBODY IS GOING TO GET HARD WITH THE PCPN AND SOME WON'T SEE MUCH WHICH MEANS WE ARE NOT GOING TO PLEASE EVERYONE TNGT. WHILE ANY SMALL VARIABLE COULD CHANGE THE LOCATION FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW...THE HEAVIEST SNOW REMAINS TO LOOK BEST FM HON-FSD-INTO NW IA. ALSO AM CONCERNED THAT SWITCH OVER TO SNOW IN THE SRN AND SE CWA MAY BE LATER THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE HEADLINED. HOWEVER...SEE VERY LITTLE GOOD COMING OUT OF CHANGING HEADLINES ATTM AS SWITCH OVER WOULD NOT BE NOT TOO FAR FM 12Z. WL NEED TO GET BUSY IN FRESHENING UP THE FCST. 00Z RUC STILL ARRIVING AND A LITTLE MORE TIME NEEDED FOR 00Z ETA. FOR THE MEDIA...IF THE NEW MDLS REQUIRE A DRASTIC CHG NEAR 10 PM WL LET YOU KNOW AT LEAST VIA AFD THAT CHG IS COMING. ATTM THOUGH...REALLY THINK CHGS WOULD NOT BE REQUIRED TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHOW IT'S UGLY FACE. .FSD...WNTR STRM WRNG LATE TNGT/FRI MRNG SERN SD HON TO FSD WNTR STRM WRNG LATE TNGT/FRI NWRN IA SE OF FSD TO SPW SNW ADVSY LATE TNGT/FRI MRNG SERN SD 9V9 TO YKN SNW ADVSY LATE TNGT/FRI NWRN IA E OF SUX BR sd NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO 330 AM MDT FRI APR 7 2000 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: DECENT COLD FRONT COLD PUSHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW. 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROPS AND GOOD UPSLOPE BEHIND IT. MODELS NOT TO GOOD SHOWING THE PROPER WINDS THAT INCLUDING THE SCALABLE FORECAST MODEL. LATEST RUC AND 06Z ETA NOT TO BAD. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND JUST SOUTH OF IT RIGHT NOW...DEFINITELY JET RELATED. MODELS POOR AT SHOWING THIS PRECIPITATION TOO. THIS FRONT PUTTING THE KIBOSH ON THE BORA WINDS ...ALTHOUGH THE NORTH WINDS OUT ON THE PLAINS WILL BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR A WHILE TODAY. JET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER RIGHT NOW AND PROGGED TO LINGER AROUND THERE INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN IT'S OUT OF HERE BY 00Z. CONCERNING THE HIGH WIND THREAT...CROSS SECTIONS AND GRIDS SHOW NO HELP FROM A MOUNTAIN WAVE DEAL...AND ONLY FAIR HELP FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE DESCENT. LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS HAVE A DECENT GRADIENT...BUT NOT A FIERCE ONE. WITH EVERYTHING CONSIDERED...THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD BE NOW UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING...AND THEY MAY EVENTUALLY SWING A LITTLE BACK TO JUST WEST OF NORTH TODAY AT SOME TIME. SINCE THE ONLY REAL STRONG WINDS ARE RIGHT ON THE DIVIDE...WILL KILL ALL WIND HIGHLIGHTS. BUT IT'LL STILL BE WINDY. ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE OVER US NOW ON THE SATELLITE PICTURES...AND NOT TO MUCH IN THE UPSTREAM. GRIDS SHOW THIS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. THE LITTLE MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS WARRANT SOME POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN THERE ARE THE JET INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THESE SHOWERS IN THE FUTURE TODAY WITH THE GRIDS I HAVE...BUT JET WILL BE AROUND TODAY SO MAY PUT SOME ISOLATED POPS IN APPROPRIATE AREAS...AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS GRIDS SHOW ABOUT AN 11-15 C COOL OFF TODAY FROM YESTERDAY'S HIGHS. RJK LONG TERM DISCUSSION: REMAINING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH CLOUDS VANISHING...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP NICELY IN MOST AREAS. GUIDANCE LOOKS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO WARM. CONSIDERABLE WARMING THEN FOR THE WEEKEND AS WARM RIDGE REDEVELOPS WITH MORE OF THAT SPRING WIND TO MAXIMIZE THE HEATING. LATEST MRF/AVN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS MRF WITH A FAIRLY DRY WAVE ACROSS CO OR WY THAT WOULD HAVE SOME WIND AND MAYBE MOUNTAIN PRECIP. THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF ARE EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH. THE EXTENDED SEEMS FINE. GIMMESTAD .DEN...NONE. co SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 328 AM MDT FRI APR 7 2000 MAIN WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. MODEL DISC: SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE GOOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC AND SUB-SYNOPTIC CONTINUITY. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MOS TEMPS DIFFERENCES FOR SAT...THOUGH. TDA: 07Z/07 SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD CYCLONE OVER CNTRL NE WITH COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH KAKO/KFNL AND APPROACHING KDEN. COLD FRONT RUNNING MAINLY W-E ACROSS NRN CO. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SE OF KDDC WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS KLAA-KLHX-KPUB. THIS CERTAINLY COULD DISRUPT THE POTENTIAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCED WIND FLOW THIS MORNING. 07Z/07 MSAS 3HR SURFACE PRESSURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES ACROSS CO WITH THE STRONGEST...5.5- 6.5MB MOVING INTO WRN NE. ANIMATION OF THE RISE/FALL COUPLET AND AN EXTRAPOLATION WOULD TAKE THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM E-SEWD AWAY FROM THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING. PLATTEVILLE CO WIND PROFILER INDICATING 250MB 100KT ULJ JUST ENTER THE PICTURE AT 07Z/07. 50KT WINDS STILL HOLDING AROUND 600-550MB AND IS NOW LIFTING. STRONG WINDS NOT SHOWING UP YET IN METARS...RAWS...OR ADDITIONAL WEATHER SENSING DATA FIELDS. FORT CARSON RAWS(6679FT) REPORTED GUST TO 59MPH/06Z...48MPH/07Z. NO OTHER WIND SENSING EQUIPMENT HAS COME CLOSE TO THIS...PRETTY ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. REDFEATHER RAWS IN N CNTRL CO HAS BARELY REACHED INTO THE 50MPH+ CAT AND THIS STATION IS CLOSEST TO THE IMPENDING STRONGER ULJ. KPUX/KFTG 88D VAD WIND PROFILERS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...YET. KPUX SHOWING E WIND ABOUT 4K FT DEEP...DEFINITELY DOESN'T PROMOTE HIGH WINDS. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY TO THE SURFACE/PBL WINDS. READINGS STILL IN THE 50S/60S IN THE PLAINS. NEED TO GET THE COLD FRONT DOWN HERE TO COOL THINGS OFF. 100-120KT ULJ PROGGED TO GLANCE NERN CO AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING UNTIL THE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY MIGRATE INTO THE NRN KS/SRN NE THIS MORNING THEN INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THINGS NOT REALLY BECOMING JUXTAPOSED FOR DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING HIGH WINDS. LATEST RUC SHOWING NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER WITH ETA'S STABLE LAYER EVEN FURTHER DETACHED FROM MOUNTAIN TOP. WILL EITHER NEED TO MIX TO OR HAVE VERY STRONG DOWNWARD FORCING TO REALIZE 500- 400MB 50KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT THE SURFACE. AS COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN THE FRONT RANGE...W-NWLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE N-NE BETWEEN 10Z-15Z. IF N WINDS SHIFT EARLIER...THIS WILL KILL WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND THREAT AS THIS WIND DIRECTION NOT CONDUCIVE FOR HIGH WINDS. STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR E AND N THIS MORNING. REALLY NEED MORE OF A N-S COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. SHOULD STILL SEE 15-35MPH PLAINS/20-40MPH MOUNTAINS...BUT GENERALLY FEELING HERE IS THAT THE THREAT FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA WILL BE ISOLATED AND BETWEEN NOW AND 16Z/07. COORD WITH BOU AND THEY ARE DROPPING ALL HIGH WIND WARNINGS. OFFICE CONSENSUS IS TO DROP THE WATCH AND HAVE STRONGLY WORDED ZFP WITH JUST BELOW WARNING NUMBERS FOR THIS MORNING. AS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM CWFA...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. TDA'S MAX TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY RUNNING VERY MILD FOR APRIL. TEMPS ALREADY AT OR ABOVE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE SITES. NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER. MORNING TEMPS MAY BE THE ACTUAL HIGH FOR TDA...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME RECOVERY OR STEADY TEMPS DURING THE DAY. HAVE NEVER SEEN FALLING DAYTIME TEMPS WITH THE SUNSHINE. GENERALLY THERE IS SOME TYPE OF TEMP RECOVERY WITH THE SUNSHINE. PLAN TO GO ABOVE MOS TEMPS. TNGT/SAT: IN RESPONSE TO THE ERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS WRN U.S...WILL SEE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TNGT/SAT. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO CO TNGT THEN INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. WITH LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS AND A NEARLY CLEAR SKY...SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT WITH COLDER TEMPS. SOUTHERLY LOWER TROP FLOW TO RETURN ON SAT WITH MODERATING TEMPS. PROBLEMS WITH MOS TEMPS. FAN IS ABOUT 10 DEGS WARMER THAN FWC. 700MB TEMPS WARM TO 0 TO 4 C BY SAT AFTERNOON. 700MB WINDS NOT ALL THAT STRONG (10-20KTS). SURFACE WINDS MAY BE THERMAL DRIVEN AND WILL BE THE KEY TO WARMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE AR RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING STRONG APRIL SUN...PLAN TO GO A CAT ABOVE FWC AND JUST BELOW FAN. EXTENDED(SUN-TUE): 60-72HR AVN SHOWING RATHER WEAK AND FRAGMENTED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ADVANCING THROUGH ROCKIES SUN. MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT GREAT. ONLY REAL LIFT WILL BE FROM MID-LEVEL STATIC STABILITIES BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE(8-9 C/KM) AND ANY OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. CURRENT EFP LOOKS GOOD. .PUB...NONE. METZE co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 344 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 TOUGH FCST THIS MRNG WITH POTENT EARLY SPRING STORM PRGD TO MV JUST S OF CWA TDA. CRNT MSAS HAS SFC LOW OVR CNTRL NE WITH BEST 3HR PRES FALLS DUE E OF LOW ALNG MO RVR BTWN OMA AND SUX. WAA PCPN HAS BKN OUT ACRS NRN AND WRN IA. AS OF 08Z PCPN -RN AS FAR E AS ALO. SO FAR HAVEN'T NOTICED ANY -SN NEARBY OTHER THAN AT FSD ARND 06Z AND THAT APPRD TO BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WITH PCPN GOING BACK TO -RN. 00Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED THE 850 LOW OVR WRN NE WITH THERMAL GRAD E ACRS IA. 0 DEG C ISOTHERM SITUATED ACRS SRN MN AND CNTRL WI. S/W THAT IS DRIVING FORCE BEHIND STORM NOT TO IMPRSV AT 00Z AT H500 BUT H300 SHOWED 130KT JET MVNG ACRS NRN RCKYS WITH 70 METER HGT FALLS OVR NRN PLAINS. MDLS ALL HANDLED DVLPMNT AND MVMT OF THIS SYSTEM ABOUT THE SAME WITH ETA/NGM THE CLOSEST AND THE AVN MVNG THINGS ALONG A LITTLE QUICKER. BIGGEST CONCERN PER COORD WITH ARX IS TRACK OF SFC LOW WITH RUC KPNG SFC LOW OVR NRN MO. MSAS 3HR PRES FALLS ALSO SUPPORT A MORE EASTERLY TRACK RATHER THAN SE SUGGESTED BY NGM/ETA/AVN. FOR THIS REASON WILL BACK OFF THE TIMING OF RAIN CHNGING TO SNOW TILL THE AFTERNOON. STILL WITH STRONG DYNAMICS OF SYSTEM EXPECT TO SEE DECENT ACCUMULATIONS NRN HALF OF CWA. EVEN WITH WRM GRND (4 INCH TMPS IN THE MID 40S) IMPRSV OMEGA ASSOCD WITH SYSTEM SHLD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES HIGH ENUF TO OVR COME WARM SFC TMPS. FOR NOW WL CONT WNTR WX ADVSRY THAT IS IN PLACE FROM CID THRU DBQ TO FREEPORT IL AND ADD THE TIER OF ZONES ALONG I-80. WILL GO 3-5 INCHES ACRS N AND 1-3 ALNG I-80 CORRIDOR BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT RN TO CHNG TO SN ARND NOON OR ERLY AFTN N WITH CHANGE OVR CNTRL TOWARD LATE AFTN AND DURING EVE FAR S. SNOW SHLD END DRNG EVE AS DEF ZONE PULLS E. WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE A CONCERN AS DEEPENING SFC LOW MVS INTO CNTRL IL BY LATE THIS AFTN AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY CREW. WILL WORD NRN AND CENTRAL ZNS TNGT WITH 25 TO 35 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND WRNG CRITERIA. REST OF FCST NOT TOO MCH CHNG FROM PRVS PKG OTHER THAN TWEAKING TMPS DOWN A NOTCH FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT. NOT MCH TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED SO NO CHANGES MADE. THANKS FOR THE COORD...DMX...ARX...MKX...AND ILX! .DVN... IA...WINTER WX ADVSRY ALNG AND N OF I80 THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE. IL...WINTER WX ADVSRY ALNG AND N OF I80 THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE MO...NONE. DLF il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 330 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 FORECAST CHALLENGES PRIMARILY WITHIN THE FIRST 12 HRS WITH SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. CURRENTLY...DRY E TO NE FLOW AT SFC ACRS STATE WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAS SATURATED IN A FEW PLACES ACRS THE N WITH LGT TO MOD RAIN FM JUST N OF KFSD-KSPW-KAXA. EASY TO FIND ON SFC MAP AS TEMPS IN THE 30S WHERE PCPN IS FALLING WITH 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE. CONFIDENCE ISN/T OVERLY GREAT IN THIS FORECAST AS MANY THINGS COULD GO BAD. MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT WITH AVN QUICKER AND ETA A BIT FARTHER S. WITH CURRENT TRENDS OF PCPN AS PER 88D INFORMATION...APPEARS ETA MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH QPF BUT NEW RUC IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH ETA SFC FEATURES. WL TOSS OUT AVN IN FAVOR OF ETA AND A BIT OF THE NGM. ONE THING THAT DOES APPEAR CERTAIN IN THE FORECAST IS STRONG WINDS. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUICKLY ACRS THE CWA TODAY AND WL GO WITH WND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS WITH WINTER HEADLINES. IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS TO CROSS THE STATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. AS SATURATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR...WL SEE TEMPS LOWER INTO THE 30S ACRS THE NORTH. 850 MB TEMPS LOWER DURING THE MORNING TO -4 TO -6 C WITH STRONG CAA. SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW ACRS THE NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING WITH HEAVY WET SNOW FALLING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A REAL NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS. IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS...WOULD USUALLY GO ADVISORY...BUT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WL SEE WINDS FM THE N INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 MPH. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES SO WL GO WITH WARNING NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES N OF A EMMETSBURG TO WEBSTER CITY TO WATERLOO LINE. WL BE QUITE A SHOCK AFTER 80 DEGREE TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. REST OF FORECAST RELATIVELY CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO MIDWEST WITH WAA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT NORTH TOMORROW FOR PSBL SNOW ON THE GROUND. .DSM...WINTER STORM WARNING IAZ004>007-015>017-024>028-036>039. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IAZ023-033>035. WIND ADVISORY AFTER NOON IAZ044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097. COGIL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND 315 AM MDT FRI APR 7 2000 HAVE CHANGED ZONES TO REFLECT INCREASED WINDS IN EASTERN COLORADO. LATEST RUC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN EARLIER MODEL INDICATIONS. HAVE INCLUDED EASTERN COLORADO ZONES IN WIND ADVISORY AND INCREASED WINDS IN FIRST PERIOD IN THIS AREA. .GLD...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR EASTERN COLORADO AND FIRST TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE COLORADO STATE LINE. HIGH WIND WARNING ALONG AND EAST OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE. SVEN ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 300 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE WINDS AND TEMPS TODAY AND CHC OF PRECIP MAINLY ACR NRN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVE. LATEST WATER VAPOR VIS CONFIRMS LATEST MDL TRENDS IN DIGGING STG UPR TROF INTO NEB. ASSCD SFC LO NORTH OF GRI WITH MSAS PRESFALL ANALYSIS INDICATING BEST FALL IN ECNTRL NEB. LATEST RUC SHOWS MORE NRN TRACK OF SFC LOW THAN ANY OF THE 00Z MODELS AND IS PREFERRED DUE TO LATEST TRENDS. THE TRACK OF UPR SHRTWV TAKES BEST UPR FORCING INTO IA/NEB WITH BEST H7-H3 LAYER DIV Q IN CWA ACR NRN ZONES. RW ALREADY SEEN ON RADAR IN NWRN MO...BUT MOST PRECIP ALOFT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MID/UPPER 50 DWPTS ACR XTRM SE KS AND SRN MO. MDL GRIDDS SUGGEST SHALLOW COOL LAYER TO QUICKLY MIX OUT AS LLVL FLO BECOME SW/W WEST AHEAD OF FNT. HOWEVER WL MAINTAIN LOW POP IN SERN ZONES AS AREA MAY SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING TO TRIGGER AND FEW RW/TRW IN SERN ZONES ALONG FRONT EARLY THIS AFTN. OF MOST CONCERN IS THE WINDS. SFC LOW TO INTENSIFY SLOWER DURING THE AM WITH STG PRES GRAD. MDLS SUGGEST DRY SLOT TO OVERTAKE MUCH OF CWA WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE WARMING PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR. BY EARLY AFTN...XPCT DEEP MIXING TO BETWEEN H8-H7 WHERE WINDS BTWN 40-50KTS WITH ISOLOBARIC COMPONENT AIDING FUEL TO THE FIRE. WITH RAPID SPEED OF UPR TROF...XPCT STG WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING IN WRN ZONES AND MV TO ERN ZONES DURING AFTN. PLAN TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. WINDS TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS GRAD RELAXES AND COLDER AIR RUSHES IN. XPCT SOME STRATUS TO ROTATE SWD DURING THE AFTN AND LAST THROUGH THIS EVE. LOW CLDS TO BE SHORT LIVED UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LLVL DRYING. MAY SEE SOME LGT PRECIP WRAP SWD ACR NRN ZONES THIS EVE WITH A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MIXED IN NERN ZONES. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. TEMPS ONLY TO REACH FREEZING FOR SHRT TIME LATE TNGT AND DO NOT PLAN FREEZ ADV. ITS A LTL EARLY FOR THE GROWING SEASON WITH AREA RECENTLY EXPERIENCING A FREEZE. GUID TEMPS TNGT THROUGH SAT NGT IN BALLPARK. HOWEVER FOR TODAY...FAN GUID MUCH TOO COLD IN DRY SLOT WITH ITS OWN AVN SFC GRIDDS SUGGESTING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. WL ALSO BUMP FWC TEMPS AS FWC USUALLY TOO COLD IN DRY SLOTS. WL BASE TEMPS ON LATEST RUC 925MB TEMP FIELDS. .EAX...WIND ADVISORY...TODAY...KS ZNS 25 57 60 102-105 THIS AFTN...MO ZNS 06-08 15-17 23-25 31-33 39 40 18 mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 245 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH MAIN BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. 88-D SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES REPORTED AT SURFACE. NORTHERN BAND OF PRECIP ALIGNS PRETTY WELL WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT DEPICTED BY ETA AND RUC. MODELS WOULD INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL STAY NORTH OF FA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA WITH QG FORCING AND WARM ADVECTION ZONE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER 12Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING OVER FA AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND STRONG CAA COMES ROARING IN BEHIND IT. MAIN FACTOR HOWEVER WILL BE THE WIND. PV MAX INDICATED OVER ERN PART OF NE AT 18Z SO WIND ADVISORY A GIVEN FOR TODAY OVER THE ENTIRE FA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANW GOING FROM 52 TO 39 BTWN 06-07Z. WILL JUST MENTION TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S TODAY AND NOT MENTION ANY HIGH SINCE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE RAPID HERE ALSO. SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUICKLY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW GOOD COOLING TONIGHT WITH GUID TEMPS LOOKING TO BE IN THE BALLPARK. NICE WARMUP INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY S-SW FLOW RETURNING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM AVN DEVELOPS OVER LEE SIDE OF ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. .OMA...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ENTIRE FA. FOBERT ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 205 AM EDT FRI APR 07 2000 ...CORRECTION TO RAISE MAX TEMPS IN EXTENDED ON TUE... DISC: TOUGH GOING ON THIS DATE IN 1972. -FZRA PROVIDED A GLAZE AND CAUSED PLENTY OF CAR ACCIDENTS. BIGGEST HEADACHE TODAY HOWEVER IS TRYING TO RESOLVE THE TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MOS/FAN. AT FIRST GLANCE TEMPS APPEAR TO LOW IN THE SE PARTS BUT THEN ONE ONLY LOOK TO THE LO LVL FLO AND SEE THAT A MARINE INFLUENCE IS THE "KEY" TODAY. WEAK SURFACE HI OVER THE REGION TODAY AND CMDP RAMS DATA/AVN/ETA SFC WINDS ALL POINT TO AN E-SE WIND LATE MORNING COMING RIGHT UP DEL BAY INTO THE METROPLEX. CLDS ALSO ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY. RUC2 COMPOSITE SHOWS NOSE OF MOIST AXIS FROM VA INTO ILL THEN TO EAST SLOPES OF CONT DIVIDE. 300MB JET OF 125+ IS GOING TO DRIVE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY E OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH...BUT RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ECHOES FROM SRN OH THEN NW TO DIVIDE. BALLOONING OF COURSE! SAT SHWING CLDS MOVING ALONG AT 40-45 KT WITH LEADING EDGE OF ENHANCED CLDS ARRIVING 11Z. CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER MO/IL WILL PROVIDE ADDNL DEBRIS. NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE THE RIGHT STUFF IN BRINGING A DRENCHING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO GOOD PART OF THE CFA. WRMFNT W/B MOVING INTO OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH QG FORCING SADDLED ACROSS NRN IN/OHO AND ALONG SRN PA BRDER. STRONG 800 WAA WILL DRIVE FRNT TO NRN PA BORDER SQUEEZING PCPN OUT OVER WRN PA. ETA IS FASTER BRING PCPN E IN RESPONSE TO VORT MAX TRIGGERING TSTMS AT THIS EARLY HR IN MO/ILL. TOUGH TO DISSAGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. SO WILL OPT FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS IN FCST TO THE W AND N. SPC HAS INDICATED MDT RSK OF SVR ILL/IN/SY. MORE ON THAT LATER. THE NEXT AND STRONGER S/W WILL BE DIGGING INTO SRN OHIO VALLEY ON SAT CARVING OUT A FULL LAT TROUGH THAT WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER NRN FL ON SUN. AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS BECOMES NEG TILT BRINGING GULF/ATLC MOIST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE NE. MOST OF THE PCPN WILL BE WITH THE SFC FRONT AS FRONT GETS CAUGHT UP IN PARALLEL FLOW LATE SAT. ETA BUFKIT HAS .50-.75 ACROSS THE REGION BUT THAT IS GOING TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CFA W/B IN THE WRMSCTR ON SAT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSTMS FORMING IN A FAIRLY LONG LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SFC FRNT. QUESTION IS...WITH SUCH A HIGH RISK OF TSTMS TDY AND PSBLY TMRW TO OUR WEST...AND SW FLOW ALOFT...HOW MUCH DEBRIS WILL THERE BE PREVENTING THE ATMOS FM DESTABILIZING? LI-'S W/B -1/-2C BUT GREATEST CHANCE W/B DOWN THE COAST TO THE CAROLINAS. STRONG PACKING AND CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CHANGE THE PCPN OVER TO SNOW BUT THINK THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN AS SOON AS EARLIER EXPECTED. GREATEST INTRUSION OF COLD AIR W/B IN AREAS TO OUR SW OVERNIGHT SAT AND NOT UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUN IN WRN ZNS. THINK I'LL HAVE TO RAISE SAT NIGHT MIN A BIT AND KEEP PCPN AS LIQUID VS FROZEN. IN ANY EVENT...NOT A BAD DAY TODAY...OR FOR HALF OF SAT...BUT THEN A DRENCHING RAIN INSTORE LATE SAT INTO SUN. AL JOLSON KINDA WX WHEN APRIL SHOWERS BRING MAY FLOWERS! SEE YA...HAVE A GOOD ONE. .PHI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM.(FOR SEAS) EBERWINE pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 205 AM EDT FRI APR 07 2000 DISC: TOUGH GOING ON THIS DATE IN 1972. -FZRA PROVIDED A GLAZE AND CAUSED PLENTY OF CAR ACCIDENTS. BIGGEST HEADACHE TODAY HOWEVER IS TRYING TO RESOLVE THE TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MOS/FAN. AT FIRST GLANCE TEMPS APPEAR TO LOW IN THE SE PARTS BUT THEN ONE ONLY LOOK TO THE LO LVL FLO AND SEE THAT A MARINE INFLUENCE IS THE "KEY" TODAY. WEAK SURFACE HI OVER THE REGION TODAY AND CMDP RAMS DATA/AVN/ETA SFC WINDS ALL POINT TO AN E-SE WIND LATE MORNING COMING RIGHT UP DEL BAY INTO THE METROPLEX. CLDS ALSO ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY. RUC2 COMPOSITE SHOWS NOSE OF MOIST AXIS FROM VA INTO ILL THEN TO EAST SLOPES OF CONT DIVIDE. 300MB JET OF 125+ IS GOING TO DRIVE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY E OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH...BUT RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ECHOES FROM SRN OH THEN NW TO DIVIDE. BALLOONING OF COURSE! SAT SHWING CLDS MOVING ALONG AT 40-45 KT WITH LEADING EDGE OF ENHANCED CLDS ARRIVING 11Z. CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER MO/IL WILL PROVIDE ADDNL DEBRIS. NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE THE RIGHT STUFF IN BRINGING A DRENCHING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO GOOD PART OF THE CFA. WRMFNT W/B MOVING INTO OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH QG FORCING SADDLED ACROSS NRN IN/OHO AND ALONG SRN PA BRDER. STRONG 800 WAA WILL DRIVE FRNT TO NRN PA BORDER SQUEEZING PCPN OUT OVER WRN PA. ETA IS FASTER BRING PCPN E IN RESPONSE TO VORT MAX TRIGGERING TSTMS AT THIS EARLY HR IN MO/ILL. TOUGH TO DISSAGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. SO WILL OPT FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS IN FCST TO THE W AND N. SPC HAS INDICATED MDT RSK OF SVR ILL/IN/SY. MORE ON THAT LATER. THE NEXT AND STRONGER S/W WILL BE DIGGING INTO SRN OHIO VALLEY ON SAT CARVING OUT A FULL LAT TROUGH THAT WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER NRN FL ON SUN. AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS BECOMES NEG TILT BRINGING GULF/ATLC MOIST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE NE. MOST OF THE PCPN WILL BE WITH THE SFC FRONT AS FRONT GETS CAUGHT UP IN PARALLEL FLOW LATE SAT. ETA BUFKIT HAS .50-.75 ACROSS THE REGION BUT THAT IS GOING TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CFA W/B IN THE WRMSCTR ON SAT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSTMS FORMING IN A FAIRLY LONG LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SFC FRNT. QUESTION IS...WITH SUCH A HIGH RISK OF TSTMS TDY AND PSBLY TMRW TO OUR WEST...AND SW FLOW ALOFT...HOW MUCH DEBRIS WILL THERE BE PREVENTING THE ATMOS FM DESTABILIZING? LI-'S W/B -1/-2C BUT GREATEST CHANCE W/B DOWN THE COAST TO THE CAROLINAS. STRONG PACKING AND CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CHANGE THE PCPN OVER TO SNOW BUT THINK THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN AS SOON AS EARLIER EXPECTED. GREATEST INTRUSION OF COLD AIR W/B IN AREAS TO OUR SW OVERNIGHT SAT AND NOT UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUN IN WRN ZNS. THINK I'LL HAVE TO RAISE SAT NIGHT MIN A BIT AND KEEP PCPN AS LIQUID VS FROZEN. IN ANY EVENT...NOT A BAD DAY TODAY...OR FOR HALF OF SAT...BUT THEN A DRENCHING RAIN INSTORE LATE SAT INTO SUN. AL JOLSON KINDA WX WHEN APRIL SHOWERS BRING MAY FLOWERS! SEE YA...HAVE A GOOD ONE. .PHI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM.(FOR SEAS) EBERWINE pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 415 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 ...MAIN FORECASTS CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/WINDS AND HEADLINES... LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE FRONT RANGE. AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE IOWA/MINNESOTA...WHERE SOME OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE GONE +SN. AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS HAS REMAINED EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS SUGGESTS THE FORECAST SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT BY THE MODELS MAY CONTAIN SOME ERROR. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL FEATURES NOT BEING RESOLVED WELL BY THE MODELS. 03Z/06Z RUC RUNS SEEM HAVE THE MOST SUCCESS IN FORECASTING THESE FEATURES. NOT BY COINCIDENCE...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/FEATURES ARE FORECAST FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO. DRY AIR MUST BE OVERCOME AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...THIS SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO LONG. SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. SNOW FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE FROM THE GREAT AMOUNT OF DYNAMIC FORCING WHICH IS GENERATED. THUS...MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOT AS GREAT A CONCERN. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 3-8 INCHES EXPECTED...WILL GO WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING...EVEN THOUGH AREAS SUCH AS LA CROSSE/ROCHESTER MAY ONLY SEE THE BOTTOM END OF THE SNOW AMOUNTS. THIS MAINLY DUE TO THE HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED. WILL BUFFER AREAS TO THE NORTH WITH AN ADVISORY...THOUGH BOUNDARY OF SNOW WILL LIKELY BE SHARP...THIS MAY ADMITTEDLY BE OVERDONE. SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING SKIES TO BE SUNNY FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURE NEAR GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE. .LSE...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TODAY...MNZ086-087-094-IAZ008-009- 018-019. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MNZ088- 095-096-IAZ010-011-029-030-WIZ041>044-053>055-061. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY...MNZ079-WIZ032>034. KRC wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1015 AM EST FRI APR 7 2000 IMPRESSIVE CONVECTN OVR CNTRL IL MOVG INTO WRN IND ATTM. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER NERN MO WITH A SECOND LOW OVER CNTRL OK. WARM FRONT IS STRETCHED FROM NERN MO TO DELMARVA. LATEST RUC MOVES SFC LOW TO CNTRL IL BY 18Z. THIS IS SIMILAR TO TRACK OF 12Z ETA. H8 JET OF 50 KTS SETS UP OVER OH VLY BY 00Z SAT. H8 JET INCREASES TO 65 KTS BY 06Z OVER UPR OH VLY. GOOD SLY FLOW SHOULD CONT TO PUSH WARM FRONT N. SVR TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN INTO EVNG. CAPE VALUES ARE LOW BUT HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AT SFC IF WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. CURRENT ZNS LOOK GOOD. WILL TAKE OUT MORNING WORDING. .IWX...NONE. OHARA in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1045 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 WL CONT WINTER STORM WARNING IN SRN ZONE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW BUT WL BEGIN TO TRIM SEVERAL NRN COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MID LEVEL DEFORMATION INCREASING OVR FAR SRN AREA THROUGH 20Z...THEN DIMINISHING IN THE LATTER HALF OF AFTN. WL MOST LKLY TRIM BACK ON PRECIP IN CENTRAL ZONES AND DROP FM NORTH. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS CUT OFF TO SOUTH AND EAST AND HEAVIEST PRECIP LINING UP WELL WITH STRONG FORCING ASSOCD WITH POSSIBLE COUPLING JETS OVER ERN IA/IL/SRN WI. .MSP...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY MN ZNS 73>75..82>85..91>93. KAVINSKY mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1030 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2000 WRMFNT APCHG SRN FRINGE OF OH-CNTRL WV ATTM. SATPIX SHOW WDSPRD SC GENERALLY N OF KFZY-KPSF AXIS WITH MTN WAVE DOWNWIND OF ADRNDCKS... SOME CI CREEPING INTO WRN NY AND WAA PAT CLDS ACRS SWRN THREE QTRS PLUS OF PA. RUC NOTES RISING H5 HGTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND SOUNDINGS OUT OF KBUF...KPIT AND KILN SUPPORTIVE OF ASSORTED AC LYRS. SC OVR NRN DIST MAY GIVE LESS MIXING...SMALL UPWD TEMP REVISION FOR KPOU AREA...WL REINTRODUCE PCPN IN CTSKLS IN SCND PD...OTRW ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS ON EXISTING THEME. MCKINLEY/LAB .ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE. ny EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1040 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER EXTREME SE NE THRU ERN KS TO SW OK...WITH IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES NOTED OVER MOST OF KS AND NW/NCTRL OK. RUC/ETA SHOW 40-50KT H85 FLOW WORKING INTO FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH TREMENDOUS SUBSIDENCE. RESULTANT MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR THESE STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SFC...SO CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD TO ME. BAND OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NE OK/NW AR HANDLED WELL BY RUC BNDRY LYR RH PROGS...AND SHUD SEE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN FROM KS. TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO GET RATHER WARM OVER SE OK/NW AR...ALTHO TEMPS MAY STEADY OUT OR SLOWLY DROP THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE FROPA. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 16Z OBS BEFORE UPDATED ZONE ISSUANCE. FCSTID = 18 .TUL... AR...WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029. OK...WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES OKZ054>076. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1130 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 AVIATION DISCUSSION...ANALYSIS FROM LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH NEAR A LINE FROM MUSKOGEE...TO WICHITA FALLS. THE COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE TROUGH ABOUT 40 MILES. NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-30 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL PLAN TO BRING THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE DFW SITES NEAR 20Z...THEN ACROSS THE ACT AREA AROUND 00Z. STRONG WIND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z. TSRA CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST SITES. SKC CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COORD WITH CWSU ZFW. 83 955 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY IS TIMING OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BETWEEN AMARILLO AND LUBBOCK NORTHEAST TO LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS SOMETHING BETWEEN 18Z-20Z. CONTINUITY MIGHT SUGGEST EARLIER TIME...BUT WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT SOMETIMES TENDS TO SLOW MOVEMENT DOWN DURING DAY. THIS ARGUES MORE FOR LATTER TIME...WHICH IS PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL GO WITH. AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY BE BUMPED UP A CATEGORY BASED ON THIS SCENARIO. OTHER PROBLEM IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. STRONG CAP SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS SUPPRESSED NORTH CENTRAL AREA...BUT FRONT MAY WEAKEN IT EASTERN TEXAS LATER TODAY. GOOD TURNING ALONG FRONT AND SOUTH ALONG DRY LINE WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO BECOME RAPIDLY SEVERE. WE LIKE SPC OUTLOOK AREA...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY EXTEND WEST TO THE NON-SEVERE LINE. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING. 03 .FTW...WIND ADVISORY TODAY...ENTIRE AREA. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 955 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY IS TIMING OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BETWEEN AMARILLO AND LUBBOCK NORTHEAST TO LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS SOMETHING BETWEEN 18Z-20Z. CONTINUITY MIGHT SUGGEST EARLIER TIME...BUT WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT SOMETIMES TENDS TO SLOW MOVEMENT DOWN DURING DAY. THIS ARGUES MORE FOR LATTER TIME...WHICH IS PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL GO WITH. AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY BE BUMPED UP A CATEGORY BASED ON THIS SCENARIO. OTHER PROBLEM IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. STRONG CAP SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS SUPPRESSED NORTH CENTRAL AREA...BUT FRONT MAY WEAKEN IT EASTERN TEXAS LATER TODAY. GOOD TURNING ALONG FRONT AND SOUTH ALONG DRY LINE WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO BECOME RAPIDLY SEVERE. WE LIKE SPC OUTLOOK AREA...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY EXTEND WEST TO THE NON-SEVERE LINE. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING. 03 .FTW...WIND ADVISORY TODAY...ENTIRE AREA. tx NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO 205 PM MDT SAT APR 7 2000 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: FCST IS FOR CLRG SKIES AND CD TEMPS TNGT. ATTM...UPR FLO AND SFC PRES GRADS ARE WKNG...SO WNDS SHUD BE LGT AFT SUNSET. MID-LVL MOISTURE WL ALSO DPRT THE AREA BY 06Z PER MDL GUIDANCE. THUS...GUD COND FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT. LATEST RUC AND MESOETA INDG H7 AND H85 TEMPS ACTUALLY WRMG FM W TO E TNGT...BUT THIS SLGT WAA ALF WL NOT MIX DN TO SFC. MIN TEMPS GNRLLY TEN DGS BLO SEASONAL AVGS. 46 LONG TERM DISCUSSION: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE STATE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR SUNNY SKIES... LIGHT WINDS...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS BACK MUCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHS APPROACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S SUNDAY AND THESE LOOK GOOD. INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WITH CORRESPONDING STRENGTHENING LEE TROF SPELLS FOR INCREASING WIND ON SUNDAY AS WELL. NEXT TROF FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY. AVN SHOWING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW TO MENTION AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE RESERVED FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THEN A RETURN TO DRY AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD. BARJENBRUCH .DEN...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 245 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2000 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... SFC LOW BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER MO/IL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WAA PCPN SPREADING INTO LOWER MI. LARGE SWATH OF SNOW EXTENDS FROM WEST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ALL THE WAY WEST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN AS THE SFC LOW ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS...WHICH IS A DIRECT REFLECTION OF THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COUPLED 300MB JET STRUCTURE ALOFT. RUC INDICATES LOW WILL TRACK INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA AND DEEPEN TO 999MB/S BY ABOUT SUNSET THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS TIGHTENING. SNOW WILL INTENSIFY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN INITIALLY IN THE SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR IS PULLED SOUTH. FORECAST CONCERNS THIS GO AROUND OBVIOUSLY PERTAIN TO HEADLINES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SPRING STORM SYSTEM. FOR TONIGHT...WAA PCPN WILL BE ONGOING AND INTENSIFYING AT PRESS TIME AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE. 295K SFC INDICATING AROUND 3G/KG OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. FIGURING ON A SIX HOUR BURST OF WAA SNOW...THE GARCIA METHOD WOULD YIELD ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS LIFTING MECHANISM. UPPER WAVE STILL WELL TO THE WEST WILL TRACK EAST AND PRODUCE LIFT VIA DPVA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DPVA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAY BE THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...AS COUPLED JET STRUCTURE PERSISTS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT. DO NOT FEEL WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IS LIKELY GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE FACT THAT THE UPPER WAVE IS LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE SFC LOW AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IN THE OHIO VALLEY CANNOT BE HELPING MOISTURE INFLOW EITHER. WILL OPT FOR A SNOW ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF A HOLLAND...GRAND RAPIDS AND LANSING LINE. WILL MENTION 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY COUNTIES AND 2-4 JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...WITH 1 TO 3 FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST TOWARD JACKSON. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S NORTH...LOW 30S SOUTH. THANKS FOR COORDINATION ON THE HEADLINES APX AND DTX. WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER PROBLEM...AND WILL PLAY THEM UP A BIT IN THE ZONES. FEEL 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 WILL COVER IT TONIGHT...WITH WINDS JUST UNDER HIGH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ALSO THROW IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING WORDING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. ON SATURDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFT OUT. WILL MENTION SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40 LOOK REASONABLE AS APRIL SUNSHINE IS OFFSET SOME BY SNOW PACK. SATURDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW...INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKS AS IF A CHANCE FOR SNOW EXISTS IN THE WAA PATTERN OF THE CLIPPER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. SUNDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE FOR WAA RELATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE ZERO 850MB ISOTHERM NOSES TOWARD THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING WITH A CHC FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S. DUKESHERER EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION... LARGE TROF WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST. THE CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW WITH A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH SRN LWR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVG THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON WITH YET ANOTHER ON WED AFTERNOON. THUS WITH ALL OF THAT ACTIVITY CAN/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW ON MONDAY AND TUE AS H85 TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW 0C. OVERALL DON/T SEE A BIG WARMUP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. .GRR...SNOW ADVISORY FROM OTTAWA...KENT...IONIA...CLINTON COUNTIES NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MASON...LAKE...OSCEOLA AND CLARE COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1135 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2000 WILL CLEAN UP ZONES SHORTLY TO ADJUST TIMING AND WORDING FOR STRONG WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FA. MSAS DATA AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WINDS FROM NEAR KTOP SWWD TO KEMP TO NRN OKLAHOMA. DISTANCE/SPEED PROGS ON THIS LINE PLACE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS INTO NWRN CWA AROUND 1 PM...AND ACROSS REMAINDER OF ADVISORY AREA BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS ALSO SHOWING LINE OF TCU DEVELOPING ALONG INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROF FROM CAMDENTON SWWD INTO CHEROKEE COUNTY KANSAS. BEST ECHOS AS OF 1130 AM AROUND THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS. LINE OF TCU MOVING SEWD INTO AREA WHERE 15Z RUC FCSTS INDICATE UP TO 2000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE AND ERODING CAP PER LAPS DATA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO CURRENT FCST. KSGF WILL PERFORM AN 18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING. .SGF...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON NW OF A BRANSON (TANEY CO) TO ROLLA (PHELPS CO) LINE. HUDSON mo