WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 944 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2000 PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED ON MAPS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS FROM JUST SOUTH OF KJAX EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO KOCF...THEN CONTINUING SOUTHWEST TO NEW PORT RICHEY AND EXTENDING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FOR MORE THAN 75NM. RETURNS FOR 88DS INDICATE THAT THIS LINE IS MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING MUCH OF MY CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS IT CONTINUES MOVING SEWD...MOVING INTO AND AFFECTING MY SOUTHERN MOST ZONES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS LINE BEING SO NARROW...THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION TO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PRECIP...SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS WAS ALSO BEING DETECTED BY 88DS NEAR A KTLH TO KAQQ LINE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN FRONT. THIS LINE SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AND WITH MESO-ETA AND RUC INDICATING FAIRLY DECENT PVA COMING ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND AREA IN RRQ OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL H20 JET...PLAN TO KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP GOING IN ALL ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALBEIT LOW POPS. AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO...THICK CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP HEATING DOWN SO TSTM DVLPMT THERE LOOKS LOW...BUT WITH BETTER HEATING TAKING PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES AT THE MOMENT WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE...C-MAN AND OFFSHORE BUOY NOW INDICATING SCEC WIND AND SEA STATES. UPSTREAM BUOY 42039 SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY NOW INDICATING NW WINDS SUSTAINED AT 22 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 29. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE..SO WILL UP SCEC TO SCA FOR ALL MARINE LEGS IN THE 1030 AM UPDATE...OTHERWISE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED. .TBW...SCA BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER INCLUDING TAMPA BAY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL ZONES ON WEDNESDAY. MCMICHAEL fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 923 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2000 CURRENTLY/TODAY...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS...WHICH WAS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EASTERN GULF...WAS APPROACHING NORTHERN SECTIONS. THESE SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES MAIN UPPER DIVERGENCE WAS STARTING TO PULL OUT TO THE NORTH WHICH SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS. ATMOSPHERE OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE CONTINUED DRY IN THE MID LEVELS WITH TEMPS ALOFT NOT VERY COOL. 10Z CANAVERAL SOUNDING EXHIBITED A CAP OF ABOUT 3 DEGREES CELSIUS AROUND 825 MB. INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE WAS ACTUALLY LAGGING THE WEAK PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION. THEREFORE...EVEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE THIN BAND OF SHOWERS IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. FOR A MORNING UPDATE...PLAN TO ADJUST TIMING OF SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. MAY HAVE TO TREND MAX TEMPS BACK SLIGHTLY ALSO SINCE CLOUDINESS BEHIND WEAK SHOWER BAND SHOULD INHIBIT HEATING BEFORE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH HEATING INTO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTH...WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MARINE...WINDS WERE MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SEAS WERE LAGGING DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT CHANGE THINGS MUCH SINCE THE TREND IS FOR INCREASING WINDS. SEAS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF PASSING SQUALLS. .MLB...SCA FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WED. AVIATION/FIRE WX...KELLY PUBLIC/MARINE....LASCODY fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 915 PM EDT MON APR 3 2000 CURRENTLY...MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS PUSHING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. A RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW. THE WINDS ARE QUITE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. PATRICK AFB WAS REPORTING 18 MPH AT 9 PM. DISCUSSION...22Z RUC MODEL INDICATES SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY 06Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. 22Z CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE SINCE 10Z. PWATS HAVE INCREASED TO 1.01 INCHES FROM 0.80 INCHES AT 10Z. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES EXPECTED. MARINE...THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH. NO CHANGES TO COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE SCEC OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO SCA EARLY TUESDAY. .MLB...NONE. AVIATION/FIRE WX...SPRATT PUBLIC/MARINE......BORZILLERI fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1150 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2000 MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LINGERING LGT SN AND CLOUD TRENDS ATTM MOST OF UPR MI STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLW FM 992MB SFC LOW OVR SRN QUEBEC. CYC FLW IN ADDITION TO LIFT PROVIDED BY UPR LEV SHRTWV OVR ERN UPR MI PER WV LOOP AND CAA PROD LK DLT T/S AROUND 14 C HAVE HELPED TO SUSTAIN LGT SN AND FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF UPR MI THIS MORNING. 15Z VIS SAT SHOWING BACK EDGE OF MVFR CIGS FM CYQT TO ASX AS RIDGE AXIS IS BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FM SRN PLAINS. COMPARING 12Z RAOBS TO THERMAL PROGS IT APPEARS RUC INITIALIZED THE BEST AS 06Z ETA WAS NOT SOUTH/EAST ENOUGH WITH CAA TOUNGUE AS GRB H8 TEMP WAS -11 C. WITH LINGERING H8-H7 LAYER OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE CLEARING MOST OF FA BY 21Z PER RUC AND 06Z ETA...BELIEVE SNOW SHOWERS OVR W FA PER ONTONAGON OB...SPOTTER REPORT NEAR KENTON...AND 88D REFL WL BEGIN TO WANE WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHRTWV AND BUILDING RIDGE. ALSO IN WEST EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE AS FORCING MOVES OUT AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE PUNCHES HOLES IN FAIRLY SHALLOW DECK...AS VIS SAT IS ALREADY SHOWING. ACROSS CNTRAL AND ERN FA SN SHOULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF DAY AS THERMAL TROF AND CYCLONIC FLW LINGERS. ADDED LESS THAN AN INCH WORDING FOR EAST AS BEST OVR WATER FETCH AND FORCING REMAINS. SOME LES ENHANCEMENT LOOKS TO BE TAKING PLACE PER 88D REFL BANDING SIG OVR ALG COUNTY ATTM. TEMPS ALSO BUMPED DOWN A BIT UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LESS CHANCE OF SUSTAINED SUNSHINE. WINDS CONTINUE TO SLACKEN FM WEST TO EAST REMAINDER OF AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS SFC RIDGING TAKES OVR. 06Z ETA BLYR WIND DECREASES TO 15KT BY 18Z FAR WEST AND BY 21Z CNTRAL. MORNING SFC OBS FM IWD...ONT...AND CMX ALSO SHOW CONSTANT DIMINISHING TREND AS WELL. .MQT...NONE. JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 947 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2000 12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CDFNT STRETCHING FROM CNTL VA THRU WRN NC PIEDMONT TO SC UPSTATE. PRE-FNTL TROF CROSSING CNTL CWFA ATTM. 88D SHOWS SCT-NUMEROUS RW MAINLY OVER WRN/NWRN CWFA. 88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOLID BAND OF LGT/MOD RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FNT. 06Z MESO-ETA TRENDS CONTINUE ALONG SAME LINES AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS CARRYING THE FNT PAST THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVE. BEST SUPPORT ARRIVES AFTER LO- LVL MOISTURE BEGINS DIMINISHING. BEST THETA-E RIDGE REMAINS OFFSHORE. THREAT OF SVR WX APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING LATE THIS MRNG INTO AFTN. 12Z MHX RAOB & KLTX VWP SHOW STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL LO-LVL WINDS W/ 50KT AROUND 5K FEET & 30-40 JUST OFF THE SFC. BUT VWP 1K WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME W/ SHIFT TO A MORE WRLY DIRECTION AS TROF NEARS. CHS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK OF INSTABILITY AS THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE AFTN CHOKING OFF GOOD INSOLATION. MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW 30+ K INDICES & 40+ TT BUT MARGINAL LI/S AT BEST & WEAK CAPES (<1K). WILL BASE POPS ON STATUS OF RAIN LINE AT 15Z BUT AM INCLINED TO RAISE AT THIS POINT. LAMP GUIDANCE IS BELOW FCST TEMPS & CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD HOLD MAXES DOWN. WILL ADD WINDY VERBAGE. CWF: NO REPORTS OF PROBLEMS W/ HIGH TIDE THIS MRNG. TOPS OF TOWERS AROUND SCA CRITERIA ATTM WHILE COASTAL STATIONS WELL BELOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS SFC GRAD TIGHTENS. MESO-ETA & 12Z RUC AGREE W/ GOING FCSTS SO NO CHANGES PLANNED. .ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVY SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC. LGE nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 850 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2000 SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS UPPER CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD HELP DIMINISH LOWER CLOUDINESS. THE LATEST RUC SUPPORTS THIS AND SHOWS CLOUDINESS WILL BECOME SCATTERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE IT WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO PREVENT FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN TO KEEP CHANCE POPS UNTIL AROUND 100 PM. .CAE...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. RJL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 242 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2000 MAIN FCST PROBLEMS TODAY ARE AS FOLLOWS: 1. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF FROST ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. 2. WIND ON WEDNESDAY 3. MARGINAL CHC OF PCPN IN SERN PTN OF CWA ON THU. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION CU AND MIXED PCPN NOTED ACROSS ERN PTN OF FORECAST AREA SINCE 15Z. MOST SIGNIFICANT PCPN THREAT MOVING EAST OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z...AHEAD OF 50H VORT AXIS/LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF CLOSELY PROGGED BY 12Z RUC/AVN NUMERICAL MODELS TODAY. ANTICPATE DE-COUPLING OF WINDS ACRS FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 01Z-02Z WITH NEAR CALM WINDS EXPECTED CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. BIGGEST CONCERN IS TIMING OF RETURN WAA INTO SERN MO/SWRN IL/WRN KY LATE TONIGHT AND ANY MINOR CI CLOUD COVER ALOFT. ALTHOUGH PAH FORECAST AREA IS PRONE TO RAPID DE-COUPLING OF WINDS...WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT DIP LOW THIS EVENING TO ALLOW FOR STRONG THERMAL STRATIFICATION /INVERSION/ TO TAKE A STRONG HOLD UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COORD WITH AREA USDA OFFICES INDICATE THAT APPLE AND SOME PEACH BLOOMS MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST DAMAGE...GIVEN IDEA TEMP CONDITIONS. NOT PARTICULARILY CONCERNED WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS AOB 28 DEGREES FOR FREEZE WARNING POTENTIAL...BUT AM CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST. EVEN THOUGH IT IS STILL EARLY IN THE GROWING SEASON...DECIDED TO ISSUE FROST ADVISORY CWA-WIDE...MAINLY AS A PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE FOR FRUIT GROWERS AND THOSE PERSONS PLANTING TENDER FLOWERING PLANTS. AS THE INVERSION BREAKS UP AROUND SUNRISE ON WED...SFC GRADIENT INCREASES SHARPLY IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE UPPER AND CENTRAL PLAINS IN FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE. SFC GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT LATER ON WED NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME DIFFUSE ACRS CWA BY 18Z THU. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT LOW TO MID 50 DWPTS AND 0 TO -3 LI S ARE PROGGED ACRS EXTREME SRN KY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER COORD DISC WITH BNA...DECIDED TO KEEP FCST DRY FOR THU. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN EXTENDED STILL APPEARS TO BE FRI NITE INTO SAT AM. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON SUN. .PAH...MAINTAIN FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR ENTIRE WFO PADUCAH FORECAST AREA. SMITH ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 255 PM EDT TUE APR 4 2000 CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME...BEING AIDED BY UPPER TROF...LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND DIURNAL COMPONENT. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AS WELL DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. RIDGING BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS NOTED TO THE WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVERHEAD BEING KICKED OUT...WHICH IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGING FOR TOMORROW. UPPER SHORTWAVE SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FCST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD RELATED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PCPN RELATED WED NIGHT...AND CLOUDS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. FOR TONIGHT...BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AT 18Z...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. UPPER TROF MOVES EAST TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS. RIDGING SHOULD AID IN CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. RUC MODEL DATA SHOWING RH AT 925 AND 850MB/S DRYING UP QUITE A BIT THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE ETA WHICH CLEARS THINGS LATER TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CLEARING IS MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT ZONES FOR TONIGHT...AND WILL LEAVE THAT WORDING. WILL MENTION SCATTERED EVENING SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. AS FOR LOWS...WILL STICK WITH GOING FCST OF MID 20S LAKESHORE...LOW 20S INLAND. FOR WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND WILL WORD THE FCST THAT WAY. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME CU POSSIBLE...THEN MID CLOUDS ADVECT IN TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND A WIND OFF THE LAKE...SO WILL STAY NEAR MOS NUMBERS OF AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE FCST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE. QUESTION IS HOW HIGH TO TAKE THE POPS. BEST DYNAMICS ARE TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT CENTER AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 300MB JET STREAK. MOISTURE IS ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR AS A SFC HIGH ALONG THE GULF COAST BLOCKS MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN. GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE LOWER TROP COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PRESENT VIA DPVA AND WAA...WILL NECESSITATE CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE SHOWER THREAT. LOWS AROUND 40 SHOULD WORK. ON THURSDAY...RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL WORD THE FCST AS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY DAYBREAK. DUKESHERER .EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION... WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. PREFRONTAL PCPN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 13Z FRIDAY IF MRF VERIFIES. LOOKS LIKE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SFC LOW TRACK WILL MARCH THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND HAS SIGNATURES CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING THE SYSTEMS PATH THROUGH FA...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...STRONG 850MB TEMP GRADIENT...AND STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS. THIS WILL NEED CLOSE WATCHING. SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER WILL DROP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF PCPN. ALTHOUGH A LITTLE FAR OUT TO BE SURE MRF CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES DO BORDER A FROZEN PCPN POSSIBILITY...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS. MCINERNEY .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 110 PM EDT TUE APR 4 2000 SOLID (BUT NARROW) LN OF SHRA FEEDING OFF POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE PRE-FNTL TROF OFF THE COAST. THIS LN IS MOVING AWAY FROM ILM/S WATERS W/ NO EFFECT HERE. MEANWHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A POORLY ORGANIZED LINE OF SHRA IS SLOWLY MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN CWFA WHERE BETTER CAPPING AND MORE STABLE AMS IS APPARENT. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS...PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE EARLY EVENING...THEN CLEARING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 1ST PD. SVR THREAT HAS ABATED...PER EARLIER SPC DISCUSSION. STRONGER WINDS STILL SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST LAMP PROJECTIONS AND PARTIALLY THE RUC...HOWEVER AMOUNT OF CLD COVER HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF MIXING. STILL EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON W/ DECENT PRES GRAD. SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE OVER THE NXT 24H ON THE HEELS OF UPPER TROF AXIS SWEEPING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL 50-60% RHS IN THE 850-925MB LYR ON WED...SO FEW CU POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL SUNNY SKIES PREVALENT...ESP W/ DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. CAA TONIGHT WILL EASE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 40S AND ONLY MID 60S WED. HOWEVER...LLVL THICKNESSES REBOUND NICELY WED NIGHT/THU W/ 77-79 DEG READINGS EXPECTED THU. IN THE EXTENDED WILL INCLUDE CHANCE SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SUN W/ NEXT SIGNIFICANT S/WV TO APPROACH. CWF: MARINE STATIONS REPORTING 8 FT SEAS W/ WINDS VARYING IN AND OUT OF SCA CRITERIA. STRONGER WIND FIELD NE OF HERE. WILL KEEP SCA IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT W/ LLVL CAA SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH ON WED AS CAA AND PRES GRAD WANE. PRELIMINARY CCF: ILM UU 043/065 043/077 055 29200 FLO UU 041/066 041/078 053 29100 MYR UU 045/065 043/074 056 29200 .ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC. PFAFF nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 935 AM CDT TUE APR 4 2000 CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. GOING TEMPS CLOSE TO OR ABOVE FAN GUIDANCE. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF EVEN WARMER TEMPS WESTERN CWA...BUT WILL LET FORECAST RIDE FOR NOW AND AMEND LATER IF TEMPS LOOK TO BE RISING FASTER THAN EXPECTED. .ABR...NONE LORENS sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1006 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2000 COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND IS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. KMRX/KHTX RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS ALONG UPPER LEVEL TROF. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS SLOWLY MOVING EAST LOOKS AS THOUGH PART OF THE CWA COULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY BUT MAY RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON IF SKIES CLEAR. BULK OF HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THE AREA AND LAST SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE CWA SLOWLY. WILL ALLOW FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT NOON EDT. WILL HOLD OFF UPDATE UNTIL NOON. LOOKS AS THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT CWA BY NOON AND MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPERATURES. NEW RUC SHOWING THAT MOST OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA. UPDATE OUT AROUND NOON. .MRX... NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES NCZ060>061. TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES TNZ012>014...TNZ035>041...TNZ067>074...TNZ083>087...TNZ099>102. VA...NONE. PDK tn