SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 225 PM MDT SUN APR 2 2000 THE FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY FOCUSES ON THE EFFECTS OF THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT AFFECTING MAINLY THE NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALL INDICATED INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER NRN CO...MOVING TOWARD SRN CO. MSAS POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 1800 UTC INDICATED THE FRONT BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND INTO THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. THE MODELS AGREE WELL ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU 48 HOURS...WITH THE LATEST RUC MATCHING UP WELL WITH THE 1200 UTC ETA...LENDING CONFIDENCE TO THE SHORT TERM TRENDS. MODEL CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IS GOOD...WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW. SHORT TERM FORECAST... TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE TO PORTIONS OF SE CO TONIGHT...WITH THE LEADVILLE AREA...PALMER DIVIDE/PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE E SLOPES OF THE SE MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE AREAS THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND UPSLOPE COINCIDE OVER SE CO FROM 0000-1200 UTC MON...WITH THE BEST PERIOD OF PRECIP LIKELY TO BE FROM 0000-0600 UTC. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE SNOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...AND I WILL PROBABLY NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS...BUT THE PALMER DIVIDE/TELLER COUNTY AREA BEARS WATCHING. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: LARGE SCALE DESCENT MOVES OVER THE AREA AND A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS. FWC GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM WHAT IT WAS SHOWING YESTERDAY...BUT IT MAY STILL NOT BE QUITE LOW ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD INTO CO...WITH 700 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 0 DEG C BY 1200 UTC TUE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND WITH THE RESIDUAL COOLING EFFECTS FROM THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS ON THE PLAINS...MINIMUM TEMPS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE COLD AGAIN. TUESDAY: THIS LOOKS TO BE A DRY...WARM AND SUNNY DAY IN ALL AREAS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY FLATTENING OVER THE DAY...AND A LEE TROUGH PROMOTING DEEP MIXING AND HELPING BOOST TEMPS ON THE PLAINS. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 6 DEG C. AND ANY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND WITH THE LEE TROUGH... TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND CONSIDERABLY FROM THE COOL MORNING READINGS UNDER THE APRIL SUN...PROBABLY EXCEEDING EVEN THE WARM FWC GUIDANCE VALUES ON THE PLAINS. EXTENDED FORECAST... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE CONUS OFF THE PACIFIC FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN INCREASED CROSS BARRIER COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN QUITE WARM...AND LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEEP MIXING ON THE PLAINS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE UPPER 80S ON THE PLAINS SUGGESTED BY THE FMR GUIDANCE...BUT LOWER AND MID 80S WOULDN'T BE OUT OF REACH THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MRF REALLY WANTS TO AMPLIFY THE FLOW... RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY SHARP TROUGH OVER CO ON FRIDAY. I WILL LEAN TOWARDS HPC'S IDEA OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN...GIVEN THE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MRF AND THE ECMWF...WITH THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. .PUB...NONE. HAYNES co EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 235 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2000 PRESENT WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST OBSERVATION FROM THE BUOY 20 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL WAS A SOUTHEAST WIND AT 14 TO 16 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 4.5 FEET. SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DISCUSSION...SURFACE TO 500MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. CUTOFF LOW OVER ARIZONA MOVES SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO WHILE MAJOR PORTION OF THE TROUGH HEADS EAST NEXT 12 HOURS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER CENTER WILL FORM OVER THE TEXAS/ OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AREA OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC 250MB WIND OVERLAY SHOWS STRONG JET MAX...130-140 KNOTS...DROPPING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD OVER MONTANA. OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF OF MEXICO. ALSO...START TAPPING INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS INCREASE AS RIDGING MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PLAINS STATES STARTS MOVING EAST. UNTIL THEN LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER STABLE AND CAPPED. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEST SHOT AT ANY RAIN AS TRAILING FRONT FROM UPPER MIDWEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. GOOD MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF PVA AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 250MB JET MAX MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. TRICKY PART IS HOW FAST...AND HOW MUCH...CAN THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER FROM THE STABLE EARLY DAY CONDITIONS (RATHER WARM AND DRY IN THE MID LEVELS) BEFORE THE MAIN DYNAMIC SUPPORT MOVES IN. LATEST MODEL RUNS DEPICT A RATHER THIN BAND OF QUICKLY MOVING MOISTURE. THEREFORE... ANY CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY. EXTENDED...BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS SOMEWHAT COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES TRY TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OLD MEXICO BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AT OR ABOVE CLIMO AGAIN. MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS EAST GULF OF MEXICO. WILL HAVE TO START SHOWING NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE SEAS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... DAB BB 062/083 065/083 053 0003 MCO BB 064/086 065/082 054 0002 MLB BB 066/082 068/082 060 0002 .MLB...NONE. AVIATION/FIRE WX...LASCODY PUBLIC/MARINE...WIMMER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 955 AM EDT SUN APR 2 2000 CURRENTLY... VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING INDICATES ENE-WSW ORIENTED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS LINES MOVING FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE STRAITS TO THE KEYS. 88D RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN ONE OF THESE LINES JUST NORTH OF THE CUBAN COAST. C-MAN BUOYS HAD BEEN REPORTING WINDS 20 KT AND GUSTY ALL NIGHT...BUT LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS WINDS THE PAST FEW HOURS ARE IN THE 15-20 KT SUSTAINED RANGE...STILL WITH GUSTS 20 KT OR BETTER. WE ONLY HAD ONE SHIP REPORT IN THE AREA THIS MORNING...VIA MARINE VHF...REPORTING 19 KT WINDS (BUT RATHER VARIABLE IN SPEED THEY SAID) AND SEAS 5 FEET JUST BEYOND THE REEF SOUTH OF MARATHON. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. FIRST PERIOD FORECASTS... I PLAN TO LEAVE UP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR KEYS STRAITS WATERS AT 1030 AM COASTAL MARINE ISSUANCE. WINDS ARE RATHER ERRATIC IN SPEED. THE MESO-ETA FROM 06Z INDICATES 20 KT OVER KEYS AND STRAITS THROUGH END OF TODAY...AND THE RUC ALSO HAS 20 KT THROUGH 00Z. NO UPDATE IS PLANNED FOR THE PUBLIC ZONE FORECASTS. .EYW...ATLANTIC WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM-GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM- CLB fl WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 946 AM EDT SUN APR 2 2000 CURRENTLY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH FROM OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA'S WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA IS PROVIDING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SELY SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP NOW SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER AS SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CU FIELD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION WITH THE FLOW NWLY ALOFT...SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER LA WILL LIKELY SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN ZONES STILL LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. WITH THE MORNING 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATING PW'S STILL UNDER AN INCH) AND CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HOLDING ON AROUND 850MB NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. NO ZONE UPDATES EXPECTED. MARINE...3MB GRADIENT FROM KTPA WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF NOW SUPPORTING WINDS IN THE SCEC RANGE (15-20 KNOTS) OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY C-MAN AND OFFSHORE BUOY REPORTS. AS THE DAY CONTINUES THOUGH EXPECT TO SEE WINDS TO SLACKEN TO BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SAGS FURTHER SOUTH ALLOWING GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A BIT...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RUC AND MESO-ETA OUTPUT. BASED ON THIS PLAN TO DROP SCEC IN 1030 AM UPDATE...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. .TBW...NONE MCMICHAEL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 808 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2000 STORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF NORTH LA AT THIS TIME...BUT THE NEXT ROUND HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TX AND SHOULD MOVE INTO EAST TX DURING THE EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES ONE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN MS TO SOUTHWEST LA...ANOTHER BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST AR TO BETWEEN SHV AND GGG TO NORTHWEST OF IAH. MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS SOUTH OF FIRST BOUNDARY...WHILE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AR ACROSS NORTHEAST TX. ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF NEXT VORT MAX. CURRENT THINKING IS THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER EAST TX...AR AND LA LATER THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC INDICATES THAT A RRQ OF A 140 KNOT JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND SHOULD ADD MORE FUEL TO THE MIX. WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS AND MAY NEED TO ADD HEAVY RAIN TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS. FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER EAST TX...BUT SHOULD LIFT AS STORMS OVER TX MOVE INTO THE AREA. .SHV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF NORTH LA AND A PORTION OF EAST TX. LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ152>153-165>167. IV la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1042 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2000 SYNOPSIS: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE DOWNEAST COASTAL SECTIONS TOWARD MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME DRYING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND WIND FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: RAIN FROM KMLT SOUTH AND EAST MOVING STEADILY ESE WITH SFC FNT NOW ENTERING NW ME. FM LATEST SAT...LOOKS LIKE RECENT ETA AND RUC ARE ON TARGET WITH RAPID DRYING MID-UPR LVLS NRN ME BY 2AM AND REACHING COASTAL SXNS BY ABOUT 5AM. XPCT WIDESPREAD 1-3 MILE FOG OVER REGION BY MORNING WITH CLR SKIES AND MOIST SFC. UPDT WILL INCLUDE MENTION ON LCL DNS FOG ALL ZONES... BUT DO NOT THNK ADVSRY IS NEEDED ATTM. TEMP WISE WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A BIT IN NRN AND CNTL ZONES...SRN AND COASTAL ZONES LOOK GOOD. FLOOD WATCH RMNS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 2. POLICE IN BOTH FORT FAIRFIELD AND VAN BUREN REPORT THAT ICE IS MOVING FREELY THIS EVE AND RIVER LEVELS ARE EITHER STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. SO WILL SIMPLY UPDT FFA AND HOPEFULLY ANY REMAINING THREATS WILL BE OVER BY TOMORROW. COASTAL WATERS...WINDS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 25 KTS LAST FEW HOURS BUT GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE LOW 30S. XPCT GUSTINESS IS ABOUT OVER AND EARLIER FCST OF A DMNSHG WINDS WITH FROPA LOOK ON THE MONEY. .CAR...FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE JAMS ZONE 2 TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS. BGR EW 040/054 042/050 043 07677 333/333/00/08 CAR EW 036/050 036/048 035 07514 333/332/00/08 COBB me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1025 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2000 SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THAT THE CWFA IS IN A SQEEZE PLAY TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE WEST LOCATED IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE OTHER SYSTEM IS THE AREA OF 850-500 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BRING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. SO THE BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT IN THE FORECAST IS FINE. WILL UPDATE FOR EVENING WORDING. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, THAT IS A LITTLE TRICKIER. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF FOR THE EVENING. THE PROBLEM IS THE HOW LONG TO THE CLOUDS STAY OUT OF THE AREA? SO FAR THE RUC LOKS LIKE IT HAS THE HANDLE ON THE CLOUDS AND IT SHOWS SOMETIME AFTER 06Z WHEN THE CLOUDS FROM THE TWO SYSTEMS BEGIN TO MEET. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ALONG WITH THE FLP NUMBERS AND LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. SO NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES. .APX...NONE. LUTZ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1035 AM EDT SUN APR 2 2000 DEEP MOISTURE/RAIN HAS PULLED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS/12Z RUC SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT... 700 MB TEMPS HAVE DECREASED TO -12C AND 500 MB TEMPS HAVE COOLED TO -24C...WILL SUPPORT DECENT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS WAS CASE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN SIMILAR AIRMASS UPSTREAM. THUS...DESPITE CURRENT TREND TOWARD SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS...WILL CONTINUE CURRENT PARTLY SUNNY FORECASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR AROUND 700 MB IS SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE EAST...WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER RIDGE...WITH 950 MB REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS...SO ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE COOLER NEAR LAKES WORDING. ACROSS THE WEST...WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONGER...BUT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT JUSTIFIES COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WORDING AS WELL. OTHERWISE...ANY CHANGES TO WIND/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE MINOR. .APX...NONE. ROWLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1020 AM EDT SUN APR 2 2000 QUIET AND MILD AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM TONIGHT/MONDAY. 12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS...WITH A VORT MAX LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA. +120KT 300MB JET OVER ALBERTA HELPING TO DIG THE UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADARS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW-MID CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. 12Z RUN PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW INTO MINNESOTA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. 700MB/500MB RH INCREASES ABOVE 70 PERCENT OVER THE WEST BETWEEN 18-21Z. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MID-CLOUDS OVER MINNESOTA SHOWS THEM REACHING IRONWOOD AROUND 19Z...WITH SOME CIRRUS EARLIER. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SYNOPTIC CLOUDS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT CU DEVELOPMENT. 700MB TEMP MINUS 850MB DEW POINT FROM THE 12 RUC YIELDS NEGATIVE VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE UPPER PENINSULA. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES HAVE DROPPED ONLY A LITTLE INTO THE 6.5-7 C/KM RANGE...AS TEMPS AT BOTH 850MB AND 500MB INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT A FEW CU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY. .MQT...NONE. JHB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 1000 AM EDT SUN APR 2 2000 THE RUC SHOWS THE WARM FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE AREA BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WIND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE. EXPECT WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE RUC 1000 MB WIND FORECAST OF 10 TO 15 KTS ALSO SUPPORTS WIND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. PLAN TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND LINGERING WEDGE PATTERN. THE RUC SHOWS H5 NVA OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECT THE SHOWERS BRUSHING THE NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS WILL DIMINISH. PLAN TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST PART DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONTINUED H85 WARM ADVECTION. .CAE...NONE. RJL sc DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 905 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2000 POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS ON THE MOVE TONIGHT AS AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DOWN INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH MEXICO. STRONG VORT MAX ON THE SOUTHERN END IS STILL FORECAST BY THE LATEST RUC TO MOVE EAST DURING THE NIGHT AND SHOULD BE WEST OF ZAPATA COUNTY BY 12Z. AM CURRENTLY STARTING TO GET QUITE A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA AS MOST SECTIONS ARE UNDER NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. THE EVENING BRO SOUNDING SHOWS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK ECHOS ACROSS THE CWA. THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CAMERON COUNTY HAS REMAINED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW THE WHOLE DAY AS WEAK COOL FRONT STALLED JUST A FEW MILES NORTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER BRO ...WHICH WAS FREE OF ANY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THIS MORNING...PICKED UP SOME SOUTHWEST WIND ALOFT DURING THE DAY WHICH HAS BUILT THE CAP ONCE AGAIN. VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED OVERNIGHT AND MAY SUPPLY ENOUGH LIFT TO BREAK CAP AND SUSTAIN A FEW SEVERE CELLS. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS GONE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST CWA...INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS ALOFT. HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL ISSUE A HWO SHORTLY. ONLY CHANGE TO ZONES THIS EVENING WILL BE TO THE COASTAL CAMERON ZONE AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.NOAA.SRH.GOV/BRO .BRO...NONE. 69 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX...UPDATED 835 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2000 WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN OF TEXAS THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SURVIVE AS IT MOVES EAST. 03Z MON RUC FORECAST SOUNDING ALSO INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH COLD POOL AS COLD POOL AND PRECIPITATION PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE BASIN. 12 tx COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 830 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2000 DISCUSSION...WILL BE BASING THE UPCOMING FCST UPDATE ON THE LATEST RUC SOLUTION WHICH IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE RADAR/SATELLITE DATA AND TRENDS OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. IR/WV IMAGERY DEPICTS THE AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY TO EXIST FARTHER TO THE NE..OVER SETX/LA. SURFACE STABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THETA-E TROF EXTENDING OVER THE WRN FA..AND WEAK RIDGING FROM ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHEASTWARD. RUC DATA INDICATES DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE EXISTING NEWD FROM MEXICO..BETWEEN DRT-LRD..AND TRANSLATING TO THE NE. PCPN DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA IS PRIMARILY STRATIFORM (-RA) WITH CIGS RANGING FROM NEAR 1000 FEET ACROSS THE WEST..TO NEAR 400 FEET TOWARD THE COAST WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN -DZ/BR. SWATH OF MOISTURE IS ALIGNED WITH THE 850 MB TROF AXIS WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA..APPROACHING THE ERN SECTIONS/COASTLINE BETWEEN 06-09Z. DEPTH OF STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LOWER ACROSS SE TX AND POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE GREATER OVER THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES NEWD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND TOWARD SE TX DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION..AVN 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACES ANALYZE THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESS DEFICITS AND VERY WEAK UPGLIDE TO OCCUR TONIGHT..AND ENDING BY LATE MORNING AS DOWNGLIDE AND LOWER VAPOR VALUES ADVECT OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE DISCUSSION...CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA IS MINIMAL..AND WILL REMOVE SUCH MENTION FROM THE FCST. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW ACROSS THE NERN FA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXISTS..HOWEVER FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ALSO RELATIVELY LOW. THEREFORE..WILL RETAIN THE WATCH AND UPDATE THE STATEMENT WITH A DECREASED THREAT FOR FLOOD IMPACT. NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE MARINE FCST. BML.76 .CRP...FFA TXZ233-234-245>247 TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 923 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2000 DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN FM THE N RSLTG IN AREA OF RA GETTING SURPRESSED SWD. MOST OF N ZNS NOW RA FREE WITH MAIN FOCUS OF RAFL ACRS S ZNS. AREA OF RA WL CONT PUSHG SWD SO WL END RA BY MIDNGT S ZNS AND KEEP N ZNS DRY AS WHAT EVER IS LEFT OF RA ACRS N WL BE OVER SHORTLY. PRTL CLRG MOVG INTO ST LAW VLY. RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON LL DRYING AS IT CORRECTLY SHWS DRYING TAKING PLC IN ST LAW VLY 00-03Z. BASED ON RUC LL MSTR FIELDS...IT APRS MCH OF CNDN BDR LOCNS SHD SEE SOME PRTL CLRG LT TNGT AS WK HI BLDS TO THE N. WL INDCT THIS IN UPDTD FCST. OTHER CONCERN IS FOG. CRNTLY AREAS OF DNS FOG ERN LK ONT RGN AND W NY AND FOG BCMG WDPSRD ACRS FA. WITH RELATIVELY HI DWPTS...WET GD AND POTL FOR SOME CLRG N WL ADD FOG (LCLY DNS) TO ALL ZNS TNGT. CRNT FCST TMPS LOOK GOOD. MADE A FEW CHGS BYND FIRST PD...MAINLY TO INDCT SOME PSBL ERLY AM SUN CNDN BDR RGN AND INCRD POPS FOR MON NGT BASED ON FWC/FAN GUIDNC AND MDL QPF. .BTV...NONE. KJC vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1013 AM EDT SUN APR 2 2000 AREA OF -RA CONTG TO MOVE ACROSS AND EAST OF THE RIDGES ATTM AHEAD OF INIT S/W SHEARING NEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLY THIS MORN. WITH RAOBS INDICATING SOME DRY AIR REMAINING BLO 7H...MOST PRECIP JUST GOING TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN WITH ONLY SPOTTY AMTS REACHING THE SFC. GIVEN DECREASING ECHOES IN LATEST RADAR TRENDS BACK OVER NE TN/SW VA... QUESTION AS TO HOW WDSPRD PRECIP CVRG WILL BE FOR MOST OF THE AFTN. MESO-ETA/RUC SEEM TO HANDLE FIRST -RA BATCH OK BUT APR A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH AXIS OF BEST CVRG THIS AFTN. THIS SUPPORTED BY LIMITED BACKING ALOFT AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS WHICH SHOW TRAIN OF DEEPER RH POINTED MORE TOWARD THE SRN TIER CTYS. ALSO THINK SOME CUTOFF OF INFLOW VIA TSRA TO THE SW AND DRY SLOT WITH FIRST VORT TO THE WEST WILL ALSO LIMIT CVRG INITIALLY BEFORE BETTER LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF NEXT SPEED MAX BY MID/LATE AFTN. SINCE HAVE HIGH POPS ONGOING AND SOME -RA WONT ADJUST POPS MUCH BUT LKLY WORD PRECIP OVER THE NORTH/EAST TOWARD A MORE OCNL SCENARIO. TSRA CHCS NW NC ALSO APR IFFY PER LACK OF INSTAB AND SRN TSRA ALTHO CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ELEVATED RUMBLE WITH NEXT ROUND OF MS VLY ECHOES ARRIVING LATER ON. WILL LKLY NEED TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A CAT OR TWO ESPCLY MTN ZONES WHERE CLDNS AND CONTG EVAP OF -RA LOOK TO ALLOW ONLY SLOW RISES THIS AFTN. .RNK VA...NONE. WV...NONE. NC...NONE. JH va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 300 AM PDT MON APR 3 2000 UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS TO CONTINUE ONE MORE DAY TODAY. RUC SOUNDINGS AND 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOW LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOT FAR BEHIND. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING PRESSURE FALLS OVER OREGON TODAY. RESULTANT VEERING OF FLOW TO THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TREND SEEN IN FOG PRODUCT OF DEEPENING MARINE LAYER FURTHER NORTH UP THE COAST. DELTA WILL SEE SOME EFFECTS OF THIS TODAY. ELSEWHERE...WEAK LIFTING OF AIR MASS WILL COOL TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY. FLOW INLAND THROUGH THE DELTA COULD INTRODUCE SOME STRATUS INTO THE DELTA OVERNIGHT. THIS LIKELY TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS...WITH PERHAPS SOME OF THESE CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHERN SAC AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. SPLITTING PATTERN UPSTREAM REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN DAY 5 AND BEYOND FORECAST...BUT MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PUMP UP ONE DAY RIDGE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW NEAR 32N/134W. .STO...NONE. BLU UU 068/049 060/045 057 63000 RBL UU 086/047 080/046 076 63000 SAC UU 082/047 076/047 074 63000 ca WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 932 AM EDT MON APR 3 2000 DEEP LAYERED DRYING AND VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION NOTED ON 12Z KTBW RAOB DATA ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP TODAY. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS ALONG WITH INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE WILL AGAIN MAKE FOR A WARM DAY WITH TEMPS AGAIN EXPECTED TO RUN SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWER TO MID 80 READINGS NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. AS FAR AS THE ZONES GO...DON'T REALLY SEE A NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME. PARTLY SUNNY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE SHOULD COVER THE INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ON THE MARINE SIDE...CURRENT C-MAN AND BUOYS WINDS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER LOOKING OVER LATEST RUC AND MESO-ETA OUTPUT ALONG WITH 12Z RAOB WIND DATA PLAN TO HOIST SCEC FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE LEGS AS WINDS AND SEAS STATES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MARINE UPDATE WILL BE OUT BY 1015 AM. .TBW...SCEC BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. MCMICHAEL fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 918 AM EDT MON APR 3 2000 CURRENTLY...MAJOR CAPPING INVERSION ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE HELD ON JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD HELP TO MIX DOWN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT SO ONCE AGAIN EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS. WARM 850MB TEMPS (AROUND 20 DEGREES) AND A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY POINT TO AT LEAST MID 80S. A LITTLE MORE CIRRUS SPILLING OVER RIDGE THAN YESTERDAY...SO PARTLY SUNNY STILL LOOKS GOOD. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND CANAVERAL PROFILER SHOWING WINDS 20 KNOTS OR GREATER SO WILL ADD GUSTY TERM TO THE GROUP 2 WINDS. ALSO EXPECT SOME UPPER 80S... ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR. OTHERWISE DO NOT SEE ANY CHANGES. MARINE...LATEST BUOY DATA SHOWS WINDS (16 TO 19 KNOTS) EXCEEDING THE MESO ETA/LATEST RUC GUIDANCE. MODEL TRENDS SHOW INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...HENCE PLAN TO GO WITH EXERCISE CAUTION BOTH LEGS IN THE MORNING UPDATE. .MLB...NONE. AVIATION/FIRE WX...KELLY PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY fl