NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 900 AM SAT APR 1 2000 SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER ALL OF ARIZONA ON SUNDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST INTO MIDWEEK. DISCUSSION...SATELLITE SHOWS UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR KTUS WITH SOME SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. DEFORMATION ZONE TO NORTH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD WITH A CURRENT POSITION FROM KBLH TO KPGA SOUTHWARD. TO THE NORTH OF THIS DEFORMATION ZONE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS THE AIRMASS STABALIZES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. THEY ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SAG JUST A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTH BEFORE SLOWING DOWN. RUC 700-500MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT FIELD SHOWS THIS PERFECTLY WITH THE 100 MB LINE TRACING THE BACK EDGE TO THE DEFORMATION ZONE PERFECTLY. THUS...TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE THREAT OF SHOWERS...DUE TO INSTABILITY PRESENT...BANDS OF LOCAL CONVERGENCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND HIGHER PWAT VALUES. MODELS THEN TAKE CURRENT LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NM BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WARMING TREND UNDERWAY INTO MIDWEEK. STAUDENMAIER .FGZ...NONE. az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 855 PM EST SAT APR 1 2000 SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE ATLC SEABOARD WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IN THE NW PART OF CWA DUE TO CONVECTION FIRING OVER MS AND AL. THERE IS ALSO WEAK STRATUS DECK UNDERNEATH CI CLDS OFFSHORE AND COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AROUND GULF STREAM BUT JAX RADAR INDICATES NOTHING AT THIS TIME. FOR UPDATE...MAY CHANGE WORDING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR SE GA AND EXTREME N FL. SLIGHT POPS LOOK OK BUT WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL DRYING TREND SEEN IN RUC AND MESO-ETA LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL HAVE HARD TIME DEVELOPING TOWARD LAND. MARINE...BEST ESTIMATE OF WIND AND SEA COND BASED ON MARINE OBS IS E AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 4-5 FT. MAPS ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST PART SHOWS 10 KT. MODELS APPEAR A LITTLE TOO STRONG WITH SFC WINDS OVER COASTAL WATERS BUT THEY ALSO INDICATE A DECREASE OVERNIGHT... PARTICULARLY FROM ETA AND NGM. THEREFORE AT THIS TIME THINKING IS TO DROP EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE AND GO JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WILL MONITOR SAUF1 OBS IN CASE THE CAUTIONARY HEADLINE REQUIRED. .JAX... GA...NONE. FL...NONE. ARS fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 940 AM EST SAT APR 1 2000 CURRENTLY... VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A LONG CUMULUS LINE ORIENTED NW-SE MOVING SW OVER MARQUESAS KEYS...FLORIDA STRAITS...SE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE MARKS AN ONSET OF ENE WINDS 10-15 KTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND PRODUCED A COUPLE OF VERY SHORT-LIVED FUNNEL CLOUDS WITHIN SIGHT OF KEY WEST AROUND 730-800 AM. ANOTHER SIMILAR LINE IS SEEN MOVING SW AS IT ENTERS THE MIDDLE KEYS AND ADJACENT STRAITS OVER TO ANDROS ISLAND. WINDS WITH THIS SECOND CU LINE ARE NE NEAR 15 KNOTS. MOLASSES REEF IS NE 15 KT PEAK GUST 17 KT AT 9 AM. LOW STRATUS MOVING W OFF THE MAINLAND SEEMS TO BE PASSING INTO GULF WATERS UPCOAST FROM CAPE SABLE. DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH OVER THE KEYS ...73-74F. FIRST PERIOD FORECASTS... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD...WINDS HAVE BECOME NE AND ARE PICKING UP TO 15 KT AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST RUC INDICATES 15-20 KT WINDS OVER UPPER KEYS BY 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY IS STATING 15-20 KT FOR TONIGHT. THUS... 1030 AM COASTAL MARINE FORECAST WILL INDICATE THAT THE TRANSITION TO NE 15 KT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AS EXPECTED...WITH FURTHER INCREASE STILL IN STORE FOR TONIGHT. PUBLIC ZONES WILL BE UPDATED SIMPLY TO REMOVE MORNING TIME REFERENCES FOR CLOUD COVER. THERE MAY BE SMALL SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS...BUT THREAT OVER LAND SEEMS TOO SMALL TO ADD TO ZONES. .EYW...NONE. CLB fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 320 PM EST SAT APR 01 2000 WILL THE RAIN FROM THE MESO MAKE TO GA? EXTRAPOLIATION FROM SATELLITE AND LOOKING AT THE DRIER MORE STABLE AIR OVER GA WOULD SAY NO. ALREADY HAVE LOW POPS IN FORECAST AND THEY WOULD SEEM TO BE IN LINE. THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GA WILL CATCH THE SE EDGE OF THE NEXT MESO. SO WILL RAISE POPS THERE AND MAYBE MENTION RAIN LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD MORNING. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR ABY-CSG-MSL LINE. FROM 00Z UA ANALYSIS APPEARS OVERRUNNING, ISENTROPIC EVENT SHAPING UP WITH MCC RIDING OVER TOP OF THIS. JUST SAW 00Z RUC AND IT CONFIRMS THOUGHTS THAT VORT WITH 2ND MESO WILL MOVE ACROSS GA TONIGHT. MID PERSON WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NW. WHILE CURRENT SITU LOOKS LIKE RAIN EVENT, THUNDER PRESENT, SO WILL MENTION CONVECTION. FORECAST LOWS OVER N AND W GA MAY BE A BIT WARM GIVEN CLOUDS. WILL RAISE SLIGHTLY. .ATL...NONE. ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1010 PM EST SAT APR 1 2000 REGIONAL 88-D/S SHOWS LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN A 50 MILE WIDE BAND FROM NRN IL TO SAGINAW BAY. NOT MUCH RAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF THAT. LATEST RUC DATA SHOWS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...CPD... THE LOWEST ACROSS THE NW CWA. NOT MUCH GOING ON ACROSS SRN LOWER BUT THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVERNIGHT. LATEST WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL RH FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NORTH INTO INDIANA. IN FACT THE LAST COUPLE OF FRAMES SHOW LIGHTNING DEVELOPING IN NE IN. SHEAR AXIS SLIPS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE RUC SHOWS LOWEST CPD FOLLOWING SUIT. THUS WOULD EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REFLECT THIS. MAY ALSO TWEAK TEMPS UP A BIT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 858 PM EST SAT APR 1 2000 BEST PCPN TO FALL WELL WEST OF THE CWFA TONIGHT IN AXIS OF BETTER RH. CURRENT PCPN AREA UPSTREAM TRYING TO WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE DRIER AIR OVER GA. DO EXPECT INCREASINGLY MOIST LLVL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO DEVELOP ACRS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT & AS PER LATEST RUC ...VORT ENERGY TO LIFT NE ACRS THE REGION AS WELL. ALTHOUGH UNSURE ON JUST HOW MUCH CVRG SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RESULT...STILL EXPECT JUST LIGHT QPF...PRIMARILY ACRS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM ONGOING POP TRENDS. .GSP...NONE. CSH sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1007 AM EST SAT APR 1 2000 RUC 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS BTWN THE FAN/FWC GUIDANCE THIS AFTN...SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE NGM NUMBERS. 850 MB HIGH ATOP S CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND RETURN MOIST FLOW IS MAINLY S OF THE ALTAMAHA RVR WHERE THE BEST CHC OF ATLC STRATOCU WILL BE TDA. WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FCST WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS AND WINDS EXPECTED. CWF...WK TROF JUST OFF THE COAST IS KEEPING PG PINCHED SLIGHTLY. WILL ADJUST WIND SPEEDS UP A LTL FOR INIT CONDS AND KEEP THE SCA FOR THE GA OFFSHORE WATERS. UPDATED TO HOIST SCA FOR S CAROLINA WATERS AND CHS HARBOR. .CHS... .SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY S SANTEE TO SAVANNAH OUT 20 NM. .GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND 20 TO 60 NM. RVT/MJR sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 250 PM CST SAT APR 1 2000 FORECAST QUANDARIES...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CURRENT ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY... UPPER AIR RUC/CHART...AND LAPS/SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWING MAIN RIDGING AXIS SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STATES. WITH RIDGING MOVEMENT EASTWARD...INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PROGRESSIVE SWLY FLOW OCCURRING AS UPPER LEVEL LOW "DEEPENS" THROUGHOUT THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA. PREVAILING CWA AIRMASS SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...DEWPOINTS IN THE 5OS...WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. 12Z SAT REGIONAL MODEL RUNS INITIALIZATION SIMILAR. HOWEVER... AGREE WITH LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION THAT AN AVN/ETA SOLUTION FOR PROGGED EVOLUTION THROUGH 00Z TUE PREFERRED DUE TO NGM "ROBUST" ENERGY AMPLIFICATION TRENDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID MS VALLEY BY 06Z SUN...MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL OHIO AROUND 18Z SUN. AS A RESULT...THIS WILL "DRAG" A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION DURING SUN AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 12Z MON IN CORRELATION WITH UPPER MS VALLEY SURFACE LOW INTENSIFICATION AND MOVEMENT NE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN MIDWEST BY 00Z MON WITH TROUGH ELONGATION AND MOVEMENT EASTWARD THE CENTRAL U.S. BY 00Z TUE. LOOK FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND RAINFALL TO BE PREVALENT SKY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MOST OF FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR RAINFALL ACTIVITY TO BECOME LIKELY WEST AND MIDDLE PORTIONS BY EARLY EVENING AND ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN AGREEMENT WITH DAY ONE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THAT HIGH PW VALUES...AS HIGH AS 1.71 INCHES IN CWA/SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE PASSAGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINS ALONG WHAT WILL BE A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND MON. BEST ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH TS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 12Z SUN. UNDERSTAND REASONING OF DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SLIGHT RISK CRITERIA..BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SWEAT VALUES AROUND 300 AT 12Z SUN... BUT NOT AS MUCH POTENTIAL LATER DURING THE DAY. WILL MENTION STRONG TS SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS AND MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY TO SEE IF POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR FLASH FLOODING OCCURS. WILL MENTION ONLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOIST AS SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS IF GROUND IS TOTALLY SATURATED FROM SUNDAY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES...WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN AVN FAN/NGM MOS LOWS DURING PERIOD. WITH OVERCAST SKIES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL...WILL TREND CLOSER TO AVN FAN/ETA IN HOUSE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURE SCHEME VALUES. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY... BNA 058/070/058/068 9++7 CSV 055/067/055/065 9++8 .BNA...NONE. 14 JBW tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 948 AM EST SAT APR 1 2000 PATCHES OF OPAQUE CS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z RUC AND 06Z ETA SHOW ONLY THE 30H MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT SOME 80H MOISTURE AND BELOW...WILL DISCUSS THIS LATER). THERE IS AN INDICATION OF SOME 50H MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TN BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. BKN SC ACROSS NRN GA HAS SPREAD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. BOTH THE ETA AND RUC INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE AT 80H AND BELOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE VISIBLE INDICATES THAT THIS IS A VERY SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER...AND WAS NOT MOVING OVER THE PLATEAU OR MOUNTAINS. WITH ONLY PATCHY CS ABOVE THAT LAYER OF SC... EXPECT THAT IT WILL LIFT AND BECOME A BKN CU FIELD AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...WILL UPDATE SOME CLOUD WORDING FOR THE ZONES. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD EVENING FOR SW VA AND NE TN...INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY...NORTHERN PLATEAU...SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS... AND PROBABLY MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR SOUTHEAST TN. WITH SOME CLOUD CHANGES...WILL TWEAK A FEW TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. RBP tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 410 AM EST SUN APR 2 2000 NARROW AREA OF BANDED PRECIP STRETCHES FROM SW LOWER MICH BACK TO ILL-MO. ETA AND AVN QPF FIELDS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS WHILE RUC AND NGM APPEAR TOO DRY BOTH WITH THIS RAIN AND CONVECTIVE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH. SO WILL FOLLOW ANV/ETA AND KEEP CHC/LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. AVN TIME SECTIONS OF RH AND OMEGA SUGGEST SOME BINOVC DURING THE AFT...WHICH LEADS TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS FAN MAXES WHICH ARE A BIT HIER THAN FWC. NEXT UP IS THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING IN ERLY MONDAY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...BUT DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUD BRING WIDESPREAD SHRA DURING MON AFT. SHARP COLD FROPA TO FOLLOW AFTER 00Z TUE. OSTUNO EXTENDED DISCUSSION THE BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE SHARP LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES MON NITE THROUGH WED AM. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...MOVING IT EAST OF THE LAKES BY WED PM. THE MRF IS SLOWER. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN MODEL. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN POURING INTO SW LWR MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. AS THE UPR TROF AXIS PASSES THROUGH WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE AIR WILL BE QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT BUT THAT WILL CHANGE BY TUE AM AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES DROP TO 528 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -6 OR SO. CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS SOME DRY SLOTTING TUE PM WITH THE BEST WRAP AROUND PCPN REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. THERMAL TROF MOVES EAST ON WED ONLY TO BE REPLACED WITH WAA. AS A RESULT OF THE LIFT ANTICIPATED WITH THE WAA WILL KEEP THE MO CLDY SKY WORDING. PCPN RETURNS ON THU AS THE NEXT LOW ZIPS ACROSS SRN CANADA IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. GOING TEMP FCST LOOKS OK. WF .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 330 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2000 A NARROW BAND OF -RA HAS HELD NRLY STNRY OVR PAST 4 HRS. MODELS TEND TO BRING IT TO A DEMISE AS SWRN CLOSD LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO FLOW WITH STG S/W IN NORTHERLIES BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER UPSTREAM. SAT PICS SHOW BACK EDGE OF MID/HI CLDS HAS HELD STEADY LAST FEW HRS. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT BY AFTN NWRN CWA BUT REMAINING ALL DAY IN SERN PTN CWA ABOUT LIKE NEW RUC HAS IT. SWLY FLOW WL GRDLY SET IN BY MIDDAY. LOOK FOR MAJOR COOL DOWN AS FULL LAT S/W DEEPENS OVHD. WILL HIGHLIGHT COOLING TREND AND MENT FALLING TEMPS DURG AFTN OVR NWRN PTNS CWA WHERE 850 TEMPS BEGIN TO PLUMMET. COLD COND WILL LAST ABOUT 36 HRS WITH MAJOR WARMUP AGAIN AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE 350-400 METERS. .STL...NONE PEDIGO mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 100 AM CST SUN APR 02 2000 BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN CTN ACRS AREA DUE TO INFLUENCE OF 125KT H3 JET AND LTL CHUNKS OF ENERGY FRM SW LO. XPCT RAIN TO COME TO AN END ACRS ALL OF CWA BY 12Z SUN AS SW UPR LO DIGS INTO MEXICO. CLRG LINE ENTERING FAR NW CORNER OF CWA AND EXPECT PUSH ACRS WRN CWA OVERNIGHT. CONFLUENT UPR FLOW WL MAKE CLRG DIFFICULT ACRS ERN ZONES SO...WL KEEP CLDS IN FCST THRU SUNDAY. CLRG...LGT SFC WNDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAKE FOG A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ACRS NWRN CWA DURING THE MORNING HRS. NGM AND AVN BOTH INDICATING DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF ARND 5 WHICH...DONT SIGNAL DENSE...LET ALONE ANY FOG. ETA AND RUC BOTH PREDICTING 1-2 DEPRESSIONS. WIND WL BE THE DECISIVE FACTOR WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING WK W-SW FLOW. PRVS FCST INTRODUCED FOG AND AM HESITANT TO TAKE IT OUT BASED ON CURRENT OBS. NXT UP...NRN STREAM SYSTEM. UPR FLOW RMNS CONFLUENT BUT... POTENT S/W WL HELP TO CHANGE KINEMATICS. BY 48HRS...ENERGY DIVING INTO BASE OF TROF CARVES OUT DEEP...MERIDIONAL TROF OVR CTL US. INITIALLY XPCT ASSOC FNT TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESSES AS IT BCMS PARALLEL TO UPR FLOW. THUS...PREFER SLOER ETA/AVN SOLN. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ON PRE FRONTAL PRECIP AS...PRECIP H20 VALUES SCANT. MOST OF PRECIP PROGGED IN ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF MAIN UPR VORT MAX AND DEF ZONE. BEST MOISTURE FEED AOA H7 SO XPCT ONLY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC NRN ZONES CULD SEE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW. ALL MODELS INDICATE CRITICAL THICKNESSES WL EXIST FOR LAYERS XCPT 1000-850. FOR MOST OF CWA...BY TIME LO LVLS BECM COLD ENUF...UPR SUPPORT HAS MOVED NE. THUS...NRN TIER OF ZONES WL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF SEEING FROZEN PCPN. TEMPS TDA A LTL TRICKY. FOG WL DETRACT FROM COMPRESSIONAL HTG IN ADV OF FRONT. FWC AND FAN NUMBERS FAIRLY SIMILAR BUT...NEITHER MODEL SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN FIRST PLACE. OF COURSE...AS SOON AS FOG CLEARS...WARM UP WL BE QUICK. BYND TDA...PLAN TO LEAN TWD COLDER FWC VALUES. WITH CLDS...VIRGA AND LGT PCPN DONT SEE TEMPS WARMING UP MUCH ON MONDAY. WARMUP WL BE GRADUAL AS MERIDIONAL NATURE OF UPR TROF WL KEEP ITS PROGRESS EWD SLOW. A LTL CONCERNED THAT WARMUP IN CURRENT EXTENDED A LTL FAST. HOPEFULLY FMR GUID WL POST BEFORE PKG IS RELEASED. NXT CHC OF PRECIP COMES LATE IN THE EXTENDED. .EAX...NONE. 24 mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 955 AM EDT SUN APR 2 2000 CURRENTLY... VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING INDICATES ENE-WSW ORIENTED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS LINES MOVING FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE STRAITS TO THE KEYS. 88D RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN ONE OF THESE LINES JUST NORTH OF THE CUBAN COAST. C-MAN BUOYS HAD BEEN REPORTING WINDS 20 KT AND GUSTY ALL NIGHT...BUT LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS WINDS THE PAST FEW HOURS ARE IN THE 15-20 KT SUSTAINED RANGE...STILL WITH GUSTS 20 KT OR BETTER. WE ONLY HAD ONE SHIP REPORT IN THE AREA THIS MORNING...VIA MARINE VHF...REPORTING 19 KT WINDS (BUT RATHER VARIABLE IN SPEED THEY SAID) AND SEAS 5 FEET JUST BEYOND THE REEF SOUTH OF MARATHON. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. FIRST PERIOD FORECASTS... I PLAN TO LEAVE UP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR KEYS STRAITS WATERS AT 1030 AM COASTAL MARINE ISSUANCE. WINDS ARE RATHER ERRATIC IN SPEED. THE MESO-ETA FROM 06Z INDICATES 20 KT OVER KEYS AND STRAITS THROUGH END OF TODAY...AND THE RUC ALSO HAS 20 KT THROUGH 00Z. NO UPDATE IS PLANNED FOR THE PUBLIC ZONE FORECASTS. .EYW...ATLANTIC WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM-GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM- CLB fl WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 946 AM EDT SUN APR 2 2000 CURRENTLY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH FROM OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA'S WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA IS PROVIDING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SELY SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP NOW SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER AS SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CU FIELD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION WITH THE FLOW NWLY ALOFT...SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER LA WILL LIKELY SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN ZONES STILL LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. WITH THE MORNING 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATING PW'S STILL UNDER AN INCH) AND CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HOLDING ON AROUND 850MB NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. NO ZONE UPDATES EXPECTED. MARINE...3MB GRADIENT FROM KTPA WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF NOW SUPPORTING WINDS IN THE SCEC RANGE (15-20 KNOTS) OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY C-MAN AND OFFSHORE BUOY REPORTS. AS THE DAY CONTINUES THOUGH EXPECT TO SEE WINDS TO SLACKEN TO BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SAGS FURTHER SOUTH ALLOWING GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A BIT...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RUC AND MESO-ETA OUTPUT. BASED ON THIS PLAN TO DROP SCEC IN 1030 AM UPDATE...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. .TBW...NONE MCMICHAEL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1035 AM EDT SUN APR 2 2000 DEEP MOISTURE/RAIN HAS PULLED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS/12Z RUC SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT... 700 MB TEMPS HAVE DECREASED TO -12C AND 500 MB TEMPS HAVE COOLED TO -24C...WILL SUPPORT DECENT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS WAS CASE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN SIMILAR AIRMASS UPSTREAM. THUS...DESPITE CURRENT TREND TOWARD SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS...WILL CONTINUE CURRENT PARTLY SUNNY FORECASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR AROUND 700 MB IS SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE EAST...WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER RIDGE...WITH 950 MB REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS...SO ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE COOLER NEAR LAKES WORDING. ACROSS THE WEST...WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONGER...BUT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT JUSTIFIES COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WORDING AS WELL. OTHERWISE...ANY CHANGES TO WIND/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE MINOR. .APX...NONE. ROWLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1020 AM EDT SUN APR 2 2000 QUIET AND MILD AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM TONIGHT/MONDAY. 12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS...WITH A VORT MAX LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA. +120KT 300MB JET OVER ALBERTA HELPING TO DIG THE UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADARS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW-MID CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. 12Z RUN PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW INTO MINNESOTA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. 700MB/500MB RH INCREASES ABOVE 70 PERCENT OVER THE WEST BETWEEN 18-21Z. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MID-CLOUDS OVER MINNESOTA SHOWS THEM REACHING IRONWOOD AROUND 19Z...WITH SOME CIRRUS EARLIER. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SYNOPTIC CLOUDS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT CU DEVELOPMENT. 700MB TEMP MINUS 850MB DEW POINT FROM THE 12 RUC YIELDS NEGATIVE VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE UPPER PENINSULA. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES HAVE DROPPED ONLY A LITTLE INTO THE 6.5-7 C/KM RANGE...AS TEMPS AT BOTH 850MB AND 500MB INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT A FEW CU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY. .MQT...NONE. JHB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 1000 AM EDT SUN APR 2 2000 THE RUC SHOWS THE WARM FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE AREA BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WIND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE. EXPECT WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE RUC 1000 MB WIND FORECAST OF 10 TO 15 KTS ALSO SUPPORTS WIND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. PLAN TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND LINGERING WEDGE PATTERN. THE RUC SHOWS H5 NVA OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECT THE SHOWERS BRUSHING THE NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS WILL DIMINISH. PLAN TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST PART DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONTINUED H85 WARM ADVECTION. .CAE...NONE. RJL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1013 AM EDT SUN APR 2 2000 AREA OF -RA CONTG TO MOVE ACROSS AND EAST OF THE RIDGES ATTM AHEAD OF INIT S/W SHEARING NEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLY THIS MORN. WITH RAOBS INDICATING SOME DRY AIR REMAINING BLO 7H...MOST PRECIP JUST GOING TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN WITH ONLY SPOTTY AMTS REACHING THE SFC. GIVEN DECREASING ECHOES IN LATEST RADAR TRENDS BACK OVER NE TN/SW VA... QUESTION AS TO HOW WDSPRD PRECIP CVRG WILL BE FOR MOST OF THE AFTN. MESO-ETA/RUC SEEM TO HANDLE FIRST -RA BATCH OK BUT APR A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH AXIS OF BEST CVRG THIS AFTN. THIS SUPPORTED BY LIMITED BACKING ALOFT AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS WHICH SHOW TRAIN OF DEEPER RH POINTED MORE TOWARD THE SRN TIER CTYS. ALSO THINK SOME CUTOFF OF INFLOW VIA TSRA TO THE SW AND DRY SLOT WITH FIRST VORT TO THE WEST WILL ALSO LIMIT CVRG INITIALLY BEFORE BETTER LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF NEXT SPEED MAX BY MID/LATE AFTN. SINCE HAVE HIGH POPS ONGOING AND SOME -RA WONT ADJUST POPS MUCH BUT LKLY WORD PRECIP OVER THE NORTH/EAST TOWARD A MORE OCNL SCENARIO. TSRA CHCS NW NC ALSO APR IFFY PER LACK OF INSTAB AND SRN TSRA ALTHO CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ELEVATED RUMBLE WITH NEXT ROUND OF MS VLY ECHOES ARRIVING LATER ON. WILL LKLY NEED TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A CAT OR TWO ESPCLY MTN ZONES WHERE CLDNS AND CONTG EVAP OF -RA LOOK TO ALLOW ONLY SLOW RISES THIS AFTN. .RNK VA...NONE. WV...NONE. NC...NONE. JH va SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 225 PM MDT SUN APR 2 2000 THE FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY FOCUSES ON THE EFFECTS OF THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT AFFECTING MAINLY THE NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALL INDICATED INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER NRN CO...MOVING TOWARD SRN CO. MSAS POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 1800 UTC INDICATED THE FRONT BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND INTO THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. THE MODELS AGREE WELL ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU 48 HOURS...WITH THE LATEST RUC MATCHING UP WELL WITH THE 1200 UTC ETA...LENDING CONFIDENCE TO THE SHORT TERM TRENDS. MODEL CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IS GOOD...WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW. SHORT TERM FORECAST... TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE TO PORTIONS OF SE CO TONIGHT...WITH THE LEADVILLE AREA...PALMER DIVIDE/PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE E SLOPES OF THE SE MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE AREAS THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND UPSLOPE COINCIDE OVER SE CO FROM 0000-1200 UTC MON...WITH THE BEST PERIOD OF PRECIP LIKELY TO BE FROM 0000-0600 UTC. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE SNOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...AND I WILL PROBABLY NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS...BUT THE PALMER DIVIDE/TELLER COUNTY AREA BEARS WATCHING. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: LARGE SCALE DESCENT MOVES OVER THE AREA AND A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS. FWC GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM WHAT IT WAS SHOWING YESTERDAY...BUT IT MAY STILL NOT BE QUITE LOW ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD INTO CO...WITH 700 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 0 DEG C BY 1200 UTC TUE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND WITH THE RESIDUAL COOLING EFFECTS FROM THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS ON THE PLAINS...MINIMUM TEMPS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE COLD AGAIN. TUESDAY: THIS LOOKS TO BE A DRY...WARM AND SUNNY DAY IN ALL AREAS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY FLATTENING OVER THE DAY...AND A LEE TROUGH PROMOTING DEEP MIXING AND HELPING BOOST TEMPS ON THE PLAINS. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 6 DEG C. AND ANY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND WITH THE LEE TROUGH... TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND CONSIDERABLY FROM THE COOL MORNING READINGS UNDER THE APRIL SUN...PROBABLY EXCEEDING EVEN THE WARM FWC GUIDANCE VALUES ON THE PLAINS. EXTENDED FORECAST... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE CONUS OFF THE PACIFIC FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN INCREASED CROSS BARRIER COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN QUITE WARM...AND LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEEP MIXING ON THE PLAINS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE UPPER 80S ON THE PLAINS SUGGESTED BY THE FMR GUIDANCE...BUT LOWER AND MID 80S WOULDN'T BE OUT OF REACH THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MRF REALLY WANTS TO AMPLIFY THE FLOW... RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY SHARP TROUGH OVER CO ON FRIDAY. I WILL LEAN TOWARDS HPC'S IDEA OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN...GIVEN THE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MRF AND THE ECMWF...WITH THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. .PUB...NONE. HAYNES co EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 235 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2000 PRESENT WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST OBSERVATION FROM THE BUOY 20 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL WAS A SOUTHEAST WIND AT 14 TO 16 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 4.5 FEET. SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DISCUSSION...SURFACE TO 500MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. CUTOFF LOW OVER ARIZONA MOVES SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO WHILE MAJOR PORTION OF THE TROUGH HEADS EAST NEXT 12 HOURS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER CENTER WILL FORM OVER THE TEXAS/ OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AREA OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC 250MB WIND OVERLAY SHOWS STRONG JET MAX...130-140 KNOTS...DROPPING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD OVER MONTANA. OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF OF MEXICO. ALSO...START TAPPING INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS INCREASE AS RIDGING MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PLAINS STATES STARTS MOVING EAST. UNTIL THEN LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER STABLE AND CAPPED. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEST SHOT AT ANY RAIN AS TRAILING FRONT FROM UPPER MIDWEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. GOOD MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF PVA AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 250MB JET MAX MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. TRICKY PART IS HOW FAST...AND HOW MUCH...CAN THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER FROM THE STABLE EARLY DAY CONDITIONS (RATHER WARM AND DRY IN THE MID LEVELS) BEFORE THE MAIN DYNAMIC SUPPORT MOVES IN. LATEST MODEL RUNS DEPICT A RATHER THIN BAND OF QUICKLY MOVING MOISTURE. THEREFORE... ANY CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY. EXTENDED...BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS SOMEWHAT COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES TRY TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OLD MEXICO BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AT OR ABOVE CLIMO AGAIN. MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS EAST GULF OF MEXICO. WILL HAVE TO START SHOWING NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE SEAS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... DAB BB 062/083 065/083 053 0003 MCO BB 064/086 065/082 054 0002 MLB BB 066/082 068/082 060 0002 .MLB...NONE. AVIATION/FIRE WX...LASCODY PUBLIC/MARINE...WIMMER fl