AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 902 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2000 01 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS. THE ASSOCIATED STORMS WITH THIS BOUNDARY APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE UNDERGOES NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. 00 UTC TLH SOUNDING IS A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN 12 HOURS AGO...BUT THERE IS STILL A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 700 MB. LATEST RUC HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STATIONARY AND WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ONLY THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT RAIN COULD COME FROM A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN TX. THERE IS CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE RUC FORECASTS DECENT 700-300 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH IT AS IT MOVES EAST AND APPROACHES WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12 UTC SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE ZONES HAVE IT COVERED WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR ALABAMA TONIGHT...AND CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ZONES OR CWF SHOULD BE NEEDED. .TLH... AL...NONE GA...NONE. FL...NONE FOURNIER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 215 PM CST SAT MAR 25 2000 AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER SRN MISSOURI THIS MORNING...AND WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF CGI-PAH LINE AT 20Z. THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB COLD FRONT THAT RUC/ETA HANDLED WELL. MODELS PUSH THE 850 FRONT SOUTH OF THE FA THIS EVENING. MAY MENTION EVENING SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTH BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AT PRESS TIME. OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY TONIGHT IS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM KANSAS DIRECTLY OVER THE FA. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RADIATE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN FORM LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN MOISTENED THE GROUND TODAY. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ETA...ARE FASTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE SPEED OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL NEED TO ADD MENTION OF PRECIP TO FAR WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ETA INCREASES CAPES TO 1000 J/KG AND FRONT ENTERS NW MISSOURI BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE PLENTIFUL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THUNDER IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE 700 MB OMEGA FIELDS AND FAIRLY STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7 DEGREES C/KM AT 00Z MONDAY/. THE RAPID SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL BELOW FLOOD GUIDANCE. THE GROUND HAS HAD SEVERAL DAYS TO DRY OUT. THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM MEANS MONDAY SHOULD TURN OUT MAINLY DRY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS IN MOST ZONES. MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE COOLER TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MRF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE IN BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY. AS USUAL...TIMING THE CLEARING OF COLD ADVECTION STRATOCU IS A CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY. WILL PLAY THE CLOUDS UP IN THE NORTHEAST AND GO FOR CLEARING SOUTHWEST ZONES MONDAY. EXTENDED FORECAST... STILL A WIDE ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. NOGAPS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW STUCK OVER THE CALIFORNIA AREA ALL WEEK. THIS WOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK. MRF REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT...AND NCEP PROGS SUPPORT KEEPING MENTION OF SHOWERS STARTING WEDNESDAY. .PAH...NONE. MY ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 200 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2000 18Z SFC CHART INDICATING THE COLD FNT NOW ENTERING THE NRN COUNTIES OF THE CWFA. THIS CONFIRMED WITH LATEST VIS SAT AND 88D. SHOWERS VERY ISOLATED WITH THE BEST ACTIVITY STILL PRECEDING THE FNT BY 50- 60 MILES. CELL PASSING JUST SOUTH OF STATION HAS PRODUCED SOME THUNDER HOWEVER 50 DBZ REFLECTIVITY TOPS OUT AT APPROX 12K. VIL RUNNING AROUND 30 MAX. SFC DWPTS HAVE COME UP AND ARE NOW IN THE MID 50S WITH THE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WE HAVE EXCEEDED THE RUC CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 70. WILL EXPECT MORE SHRA/TSRA TO BLOOM ACROSS CWFA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FNT SHOULD TERMINATE PCPN SHORTLY AFTER FNLT PASSAGE WITH FNT EXITING ERN KY AROUND 00Z. WILL CONTINUE A LINGERING SPRINKLE EAST THIS EVENING AND CLEARING TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM A DUD FOR OUR CWFA PCPN. APPEARS THE MID LVL ENERGY WENT NORTH AND THE GULF STATES CONVECTION ROBBED US OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. NEXT SYSTEM THAT ALL MODELS BRING IN MON MORNING IS SHAPING UP TO BE SIMILAR SCENARIO. AVN HAS THE BEST MOISTURE PATTERN WITH A WRM FNT FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A COLD FNT DURING THE DAY. WILL INTRODUCE POPS SUN NIGHT FOR EARLY MON AND EXPECT LOW LIKELY POP ON MON. AVN MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ON TUE MORNING AND CHANCE POPS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH A S/W TO FOLLOW THE MAIN FNT. TUE EVENING AND WED AM APPEAR DRY WITH A WRM FNT/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BRING GENERAL RAIN TO AREA WED AFTERNOON INTO THU. WILL NOT GET FANCY WITH TIMING IN EXTENDED AND WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ALL THREE DAYS. MOS NUMBERS LOOK CLOSE BUT HAVE BEEN RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREE COOL LATELY. LOW 70S SEEMS RATHER WARM FOR POST FNTL BUT THIS IS LATE MARCH AND WE ARE LOOKING FOR A GOODLY AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON SUN SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING MOS POP IN 4TH PD BUT WILL STILL GO WITH LOW LIKELY. PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES. WORK ZONES OUT SHORTLY. CCF LOZ 040/073 047/069 039 22103 JKL 048/073 050/068 041 22103 .JKL...NONE. DUSTY ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 915 AM CST SAT MAR 25 2000 UPDATED TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM ZONES AS VISIBILITIES RAPIDLY IMPROVED FROM 14-15Z. CAN'T RULE OUT THE SAME SITUATION TOMORROW SO WILL LOOK AT THIS FOR AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE. WILL LEAVE AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN AT THIS TIME BUT MAY UPDATE LATER DEPENDING ON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS DISSIPATING FOG BANK. SOUNDING FROM KLIX AT 12Z SHOWS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND 18Z RUC MODEL SHOWS 10-5 PERCENT RH AIR AT 700 MB WHICH WILL MINIMIZE CLOUD GROWTH MUCH LIKE FRIDAY. .NEW...NONE. LA...NONE. MS...NONE. 13 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 915 AM CST SAT MAR 25 2000 MORNING RAOBS SCARY LOOKING AT SHV/FTW WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ALSO...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS/MID LEVEL FLOW...STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TOTALS NEAR THREE INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY ALREADY THIS MORNING. EAST TEXAS CONVECTION HAS TRIED TO SHOW A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST HOUR BUT LATEST RUC SUGGESTS CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AND DEVELOP SLOWLY EASTWARD. WEAK CAP/VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE/LOW WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS/SFC TROUGH TO FOCUS CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS...ALL LEAD TO LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS...DEPENDENT UPON ANY KIND OF DAYTIME HEATING. CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON POPS/SEVERE WORDING AND TEMPS. MAY MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAT SOME WORDING CHANGES...WILL LEAVE CURRENT FCST BASICALLY UNCHANGED. MORE FIREWORKS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. STAY TUNED...13 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 240 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2000 SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY BEFORE A MUCH STRONGER STORM INFLUENCES THE REGION DURING MID WEEK. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: LATEST ANALYSIS HAS SURFACE RIDGE AND FIRST BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA ATTM. LEADING EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CONN VLY ATTM. THIS LINES UP VERY WELL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE EARLIER RUC/MESOETA FORECAST. EXPECT THE RIDGE AXIS TO BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/26. 12Z MODEL FORCAST OF THE (ETA/NGM) REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE FASTER TREND FROM THE 00Z MODEL RUN HAVING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHING THE PENOBSCOT BAY AROUND 12Z/26 AND HINTING AT SOME WEAK WAVE FORMATION ALONG THE FRONT. THE AVN REMAINS THE SLOWEST HAVING THE FRONT JUST MOVING OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AT THE SAME TIME. THIS DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A SOMEWHAT STRONGER H3 JET (AVN MODEL) MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TOWARD THE MARITIMES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (LYR QG FORCING) IS STRONGER WITH THE AVN (ETA ALSO HINTS AT THIS) BEFORE SHIFTING THIS SUPPORT INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN WITH THE HIGHER POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING). ONCE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HOLD ON TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY NORTH/MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT SO WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THESE AREAS OUT. DOWNEAST WILL MENTION BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH DRYING SHOULD DEVELOP DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN TO RESULT IN PS EVERYWHERE MONDAY. EXTENDED: EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF EARLIER RUNS BRINGING NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM INTO THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BASED ON POSITIONING OF SURFACE AND UPPER LOW FEATURES IT APPEARS TO A RAIN EVENT FOR THE CWA...HOWEVER IT MAY BRIEFLY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW/MXD PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WILL CONTINUE WITH A RAIN LIKELY SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. COASTAL WATERS: WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SSE AS LLVL WARM ADVCN COMMENCES. EXPECT WIND TO JUST FALL SHORT OF SCA CRITERIA BUT WILL MENTION WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25 KT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SUN MORN AS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. CCF: BGR WB 038/048 033/050 036 0176- 332/344/00/11 CAR WB 035/043 029/045 028 01764 332/344/00/09 .CAR...NONE. FITZSIMMONS me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1046 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2000 AREA OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH ERN UPR AND FAR NRN LOWER MI IS STEADILY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE PULLS AWAY FROM MI. MIX OF SNOW WITH THE SHRA HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO THE UPPER PENINSULA WHERE CAA HAS BEEN GREATEST. MOST OF NRN LOWER MI IS STILL IN THE 40S WHILE ERN UPR HAS FALLEN INTO THE MID 30S. WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF SHRA BUT WORD AS ENDING OVERNIGHT. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE AMOUNT AND TIMING OF CLEARING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MENTIONED IN CURRENT ZONE FORECAST. LATEST RUC AND MESO ETA STILL SUGGESTS RAPID MID LEVEL DRYING OVERNIGHT...DROPPING MID LEVEL RH FROM 60 PERCENT AT 06Z TO 20 PCT BY 12Z. UPSTREAM OBS CONFIRM THIS IDEA...WITH SKC ACROSS MUCH OF WRN UPR MI AND WI. EXPECT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TVC/CAD AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON ACROSS ERN UPR AND FAR NRN LOWER MI UNTIL LATE/TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL WORD TIMING ACCORDINGLY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS A CATEGORY OR TWO ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. .APX...NONE. EME mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1045 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2000 WRAP-AROUND MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO NRN THIRD OF FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. 00Z ETA AND 02Z RUC II INDICATE MOST OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR WRN LOWER MI BY 09Z. AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...SFC GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL GUSTINESS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS FROM MKG NORTHWARD. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING RAPIDLY AND GIVEN THE CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50... FORECAST MIN TEMPS WERE INCREASED BY ONE CATEGORY OVER ALL BUT CENTRAL LOWER MI ZONE. .GRR...NONE. GREENE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 110 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2000 FCST CONCERNS ARE WINDS AND PRECIP TRENDS AND TYPE SFC ANALYSIS AT NOON HOUR CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVR ERN ONTARIO. LOW IS HELPING TO GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS OVR FA THIS AFTN. ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND (SUS 26KT...GUSTS OF 40KT) PROBABLY WONT BE REACHED ACROSS MAJORITY OF FA DUE TO RAPIDLY DEPARTING VORT MAX AND LACK OF MIXING WITH CLOUD COVER FIRMLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...DUE TO EXPOSED NATURE OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND METARS FROM CMX REPORTING PEAK WIND OF 48KT THIS MORNING...HAVE WENT WITH AFTERNOON HIGH WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PENINSULA. OTHER CONCERN OF AFTERNOON IS PRECIP TYPE AS CAA BEHIND SHRT WV IS A BIT STRONGER THAN MODELS INDICATED THIS MORNING. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE COMPARED WITH 12Z RAOB TEMPS IN INL AND CWLO. LATEST RUC SHOWS H8 TEMPS OF -6 C PUNCHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL UPR MI BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THAT NERN MN AND CMX REPORTING LGT SNOW WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO MID TO UPPER 30S...BELIEVE THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. 88D SHOWS SCT SHOWERS...FROM MQT-IMT WESTWARD. COVECTIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF CAA COULD LEAD TO SN MIXING IN AT TIMES WITH RA...AS HAS JUST HAPPENED HERE AT MQT OFFICE...HOWEVER AS AFTERNOON WEARS ON BELIEVE EVENT WL BECOME MORE STRATIFORM WITH LGT RAIN ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND SN MIXING IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. EXCEPTION IS FAR WEST WHERE COLD AIR IS BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED AND SNOW MIXING IN ANYWHERE (NOT JUST HIGHER TERRAIN) IS POSSIBLE. COORD WITH APX. .MQT...HIGH WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON MIZ001-003 GALE WARNING LK SUPERIOR JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 945 AM CST SAT MAR 25 2000 FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS WIND. WDL PROFILER STILL SHOWING 50 KT WIND AT 850 MB LEVEL AND A NUMBER OF SUSTAINED 25 KT REPORTS. IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR ADVSY CRITERIA BUT GRADIENT IS FCST TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVSY FOR NOW AND WILL LIKELY JUST ISSUE SHORT TERM TO HANDLE WINDY AREAS. I COULD SEE SOME SPOTS REACHING CRITERIA IN THE TYPICAL WINDY CORRIDOR KILL...KMKT...KAEL AREA. OTHERWISE LOOKS FAIRLY DRY IN LOW LEVELS SW AREAS..AND SOME CU DVLPMT PSBL EAST CENTRAL INTO INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. SOUNDINGS AND SHORT TERM SFC TEMPS OFF RUC AND ETAWX SUPPORT LOW TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS MOST SPOTS. MAYBE UPPER 40S FAR EAST. .MSP...NONE RICHARDSON mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 900 AM EST SAT MAR 25 2000 WELL WE HAVE SOME MRNG -SHRA WITH THE WMFNT...YDA I THOUGHT THIS WOULD REMAIN W AND N OF THE BGM CWA. EVEN A FEW -SHRA INTO PA. AT LEAST THE PCPN WILL BE (WAS) BRIEF AND GNRLY LIGHT FOR THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH GOT IT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING OUR ERN ZONES BY LATE MRNG. MESOETA AND RUC ARE INDICATING THE POTNL FOR REDVLPMNT THIS AFTN AS THE CDFNT MOVS INTO THE RGN...SPCLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z FROM THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER. CAPES ARND 600 WITH LI'S -2. FEATURE TO WATCH SEEMS TO BE THE (PRE)FNTL CLD BAND CRNTLY XTNDG FROM ONTARIO INTO CNTRL OH. THIS BAND SHUD DVLP INTO A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA AS THE FNT APRCHS OUR WRN ZONES LATER THIS AFTN. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS BAND BRINGS IT INTO OUR FAR WRN ZONES (STEUBEN) ARND 19Z. CONCERNING TEMPS...SAT PIX SHOWS PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH READINGS ALREADY NEAR 60 ACRS WRN NYS. XPCT SW WINDS AND WARMER AIR TO GET INTO ERN SXNS (MSV AND UCA) THIS AFTN. WILL STAY WITH CRNT FCST MAXES OF 65-70 MOST AREAS. MAINLY EDITORIAL TWEEKS IN THE MRNG UPDATE. .BGM...NONE. BRADY ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1000 AM EST SAT MAR 25 2000 KGSP RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING E OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 15Z...WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SEEN OVER WRN TN/CENTRAL KY. NEITHER THE 06Z ETA NOR THE LATEST RUC DEVELOP MUCH PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT SINCE A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY PRESENT...WILL KEEP THE 30 PERCENT IN THERE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT IS BASICALLY ON TRACK. MAY SPLIT OFF THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AROUND GRD TO BUMP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND WILL ALSO TWEAK SC MTN TEMPS UP A BIT...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL. .GSP...NONE. MOORE sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 909 PM CST SAT MAR 25 2000 THUS FAR...A QUIET NIGHT AROUND THE REGION. INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWED THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH IMPEDED HEATING EARLIER TODAY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE WAS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW NEARING EASTERN NM NEARING CVS...WITH A PROBABLE VORT AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNX TO NORTHERN LEA COUNTY. 02Z SURFACE INDICATED THE DRYLINE HAS MOVED WESTWARD AGAIN...EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM 6R6... TO FST...TO JUST EAST OF INK...AND OVER LEA COUNTY. SOME MID LEVEL WARMING WAS NOTED BY THE 00Z RUC. IN SPITE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FEEL AT THE PRESENT THAT A CHANCE OF SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT IS SLIGHT. THUS WILL DROP MENTION OF PRECIP FOR MOST AREAS. WILL LET CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES EXPIRE AT 930 PM CST. UPDATED ZONES AND AFP IS ON THE WAY. .MAF... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. RSB tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 351 AM CST SUN MAR 26 2000 THE CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS LOW POPS VERY EARLY TODAY AND THEN TEMPS. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING RATHER RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS OF CWA. SUSPECT MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS ELEVATED, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES REACHING THE SURFACE. TREND OF LIGHTNING DETECTION LOOP SHOWED IN CLOUDS LIGHTNING DECREASED TO ALMOST NOTHING AS CLUSTER MOVED ACROSS COLORADO BORDER INTO KANSAS AROUND 0745Z. WILL TWEAK ZONES TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY, JUST BEFORE ISSUANCE. 07Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED COLD FRONT STILL ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING WITH SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. THINK THE COLD FRONT WILL MARCH STEADILY SOUTH NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING IN OUR NORTH, AND SHIFT NORTHERLY IN P28 AREA TIL LATE. COLD AIR, ALTHOUGH NOT TERRIBLY COLD, SHOULD ADVECT MOSTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL GO BIT COOLER IN HYS-GCK AREAS THAN IN DDC-LBL-P28 AREAS TONIGHT. 26/00Z MODEL INITIALIZATION COMPARISON SHOWED ALL MODELS VERY CLOSE WITH 500MB PRESSURE PATTERN, BUT NONE (INCLUDING RUC) PICKING UP ON WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS UPPER FEATURE WAS SUPPORTING THE ELEVATED CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE. AT SURFACE AND 850MB LEVELS, THE AVN DID HAVE A MORE PRONOUNCE LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, BUT AS USUAL, GENERATED TOO MUCH PRECIP AT THE SURFACE. NGM, ON THE OTHER HAND, ALSO SEEMS TO GENERATE TOO MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS CWA THROUGH 27/06Z. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER ETA SOLUTION. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY DISTINCT WARM FRONT AT 850MB FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS TO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE POCKET OF 20C AND WARMER AIR FROM MEXICO THROUGH NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL COLORADO. ADDITIONALLY, AFTER TROUGH PASSES TODAY, EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO BREEZY CATEGORY. FOR TEMPS, WILL GO WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM WORDING OF MID 70S SOUTH AND NEAR 70 NORTH. JUST A TAD BIT COOLER TOMORROW AS SOLAR HEATING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY COOL AIR THAT ADVECTS IN OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 IN P28 AREA. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AGAIN TODAY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AFTER WEDNESDAY. THE AVN IS QUICKER THAN THE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS IN EJECTING THE CLOSED LOW WHICH WAS NEAR 130W EARLY THIS MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT IN THE ENDLESS SERIES OF VIGOROUS WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES OVER THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CANADIAN ALL TEND TO SUPPORT EJECTING THE WAVE QUICKLY; HOWEVER, THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CANADIAN MINORS THE WAVE OUT TO JUST A TINY RIPPLE BY 00Z WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE ECMWF AND MRF MAINTAIN GREATER AMPLITUDE. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS EXHIBITED A PROPENSITY TOWARD CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS SPRING, AND THE MRF SOLUTION OF MAINTAINING A STRONGER CLOSED SYSTEM SEEMS MOST REASONABLE. SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS IN HANDLING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE WHICH WAS NEAR 148W EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF A DEEP CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND DEVELOPS A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE MRF AND CANADIAN TREND TOWARD MORE A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN BRANCH AND TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MRF HAS A FAIRLY GOOD TRACK RECORD WITH RECENT SYSTEMS AND GENERALLY WILL BE FOLLOWED. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LIKELY WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH THAT NO CHANGE WILL BE MADE TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST. DDC 072/038 069/042 061 100 GCK 072/034 069/040 059 100 EHA 075/035 071/039 060 100 LBL 073/038 070/042 062 100 HYS 071/033 069/039 058 100 P28 076/039 072/044 063 --0 .DDC...NONE. BURKE/01 ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 311 AM CST SUN MAR 26 2000 UPPER FLOW TO AMPLIFY DURING THE PERIOD...AS STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TROF DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN U.S. WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF ELD TO JUST SOUTH OF PRX TO NEAR SPS...WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR OCH TO NEAR ACT TO ABI. THESE TWO BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP FOCUS CONVECTION TODAY AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AND TONIGHT AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THEN THE SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...BUT WILL PROBABLY LEAVE SEVERE UNQUALIFIED...SINCE RUC SHOWS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY...THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD HELP STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHV 81/54/77/45 4510 MLU 78/56/75/46 4610 TXK 80/51/74/44 4600 TYR 82/57/78/49 5400 LFK 82/58/80/47 5310 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 230 AM EST SUN MAR 26 2000 RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME. BELIEVE THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE RUC SHOWS BRUSHING THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY 15Z TODAY. THE MODELS SHOWS LOW-LEVEL DRYING TODAY. THE ETA LOWERS KI/S FROM NEAR 24 AT 12Z INTO THE TEENS BY 18Z. THE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND THE ETA/A FORECAST OF H5 CONFLUENT FLOW PLAN TO FOLLOW GUIDANCE AND NOT ADD POPS TODAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH A RETURN TO H85 WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THE ETA SHOWS THIS FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO REACH THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS...AND SIGNIFICANT H5 PVA MONDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORT LIKELY POPS AND PLAN TO RAISE THE FWC GUIDANCE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE AVN AND LOCAL SCHEMES. THE ETA SHOWS TT/S REACHING THE LOWER 50S SO SOME OF THE TSTMS COULD BE SEVERE. PLAN TO USE THE FWC TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FWC TEMPERATURES APPEAR TOO WARM MONDAY DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. CAE...80/47/73/45 016 AGS...79/47/74/44 -16 .CAE...NONE. LM sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 330 AM CST SUN MAR 26 2000 MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE WINDS...AND POPS. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE VERY DEFICIENT WITH CD FNT NOW PUSHING SE INTO WESTERN PORTION OF CWA. MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND MOISTURE. WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER MOST OF CWA...ESPECIALLY WESTERN 1/2...HAVE PULLED POPS WESTERN ZONES BUT KEPT 20-30 POPS EAST. BEST CHANCES FAR EAST...WITH MODELS INDICATING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF FNT...BUT NOT DRAMATICALLY UNTIL FNT MOVES EAST OF AREA. WITH FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO PULL IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP SEEN IN UPSTREAM OBS. 88D MOSAIC HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS E. MT TO W. ND...BUT APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ONLY SHR IN WY REPORTING PRECIP ATTM. THAT SAID...MAIN EMPHASIS OF FCST TURNS TO WINDS TODAY. WAS INITIALLY INCLINED TO GO WITH WIND ADV WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND SFC TROUGH NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR NOW...ONLY ABOUT 2-3 MB/3HRS. WINDS DURING THE LAST EVENT...FRIDAY...WERE MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT BEST...AND PRESSURE RISES BEHIND TROUGH PREVIOUS EVENING MORE LIKE 4-5 MB/3 HRS. MAIN MODELS DIFFER IN TREATMENT OF SFC PATTERN TODAY...WITH RUC APPEARING TO HANDLE SITUATION BEST. RUC SFC WINDS INCRS TO AROUND 30 KTS WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN...BUT PRSR GRADIENT APPEARS TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF WHAT WOULD BE NEEDED. WILL BEAR VERY CLOSE WATCHING THOUGH...AND IF PRSR RISES SHOW UPWARD TREND...MAY WARRENT ADVISORY AFTER ALL. FOR REMAINDER OF FCST PD...FORESEE NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS AS UPR RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM WEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED. MRF CONTINUES TO HINT AT PRECIP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT NOT CONVINCED. WILL AGAIN LEAVE FOR DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE WITH OTHER MODELS. FAN AND FWC TEMPS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT EARLY PART OF PD...AND BEGIN TO SHOW A SPREAD BY MON...WITH FAN WARMER. WILL FOLLOW A COMPROMISE BUT STAY A BIT CLOSER TO COOLER FWC. .ABR...NONE. LORENS sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 950 AM EST SUN MAR 26 2000 EARLIER PATCHY FOG HAS DISSIPATED EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SITES STILL REPORTING MVFR. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN WEST/EAST COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS MS/AL/GA...WITH MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...I.E. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST TX...CENTRAL LA...AND SOUTHERN MS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH REPORTED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE AND SPREAD EASTWARD WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX AGAINST THE FRONT. TLH 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...GREATER INSTABILITY... AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 970 MB...ALREADY BROKEN. LATEST RUC SHOWS PRECIPITATION STAYING WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH GENERALIZED LIGHT RAINS SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. ZONES AND COASTALS LOOK ON TRACK...NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. WILL INVESTIGATE SCEC FOR AFTERNOON WHEN NEW MODEL DATA ARRIVES. FIRE WEATHER: NO CURRENT PROBLEMS. FORECAST RAINS SHOULD KEEP FUELS WET. .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. AFD fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 930 AM EST SUN MAR 26 2000 CURRENTLY... SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO WEST PALM BEACH. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CELL HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A RIDGE NOSING INTO THE KEYS. A COL REGION BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES LIES JUST EAST OF THE UPPER KEYS. AS OF 9 AM C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF ARE REPORTING WINDS NNE 5-10 KT...SHOWING THAT THE WEAK GULF RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE FLOW OVER THE KEYS AT THIS POINT...AND ALSO THERE MAY BE SOME EFFECTS OF LAND BREEZE OFF THE PENINSULA OVER FLORIDA BAY AND THE UPPER KEYS AS WELL. SHIP REPORTS SHOW WINDS LIGHT FROM THE ESE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. VISIBLE SATELLITE PIX INDICATE A LONG NARROW CUMULUS LINE WHERE THE WEAK WIND FIELDS CONVERGE PARALLEL AND JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE FROM THE MID AND UPPER KEYS EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE STRAITS BETWEEN THE PENINSULA AND THE BAHAMA BANKS. SATELLITE SHOWS A REGION OF LOW CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS OVER THE STRAITS SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS TO THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THERE MAY BE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS AREA. CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS IS STREAMING ACROSS THE GULF TOWARD NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. FIRST PERIOD FORECASTS... THE ETA AND MESO-ETA HAVE NOT DEPICTED THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN VERY WELL AROUND THE KEYS. THE LATEST RUC HOWEVER...IS ON TRACK WITH THE LIGHT NNE FLOW OVER THE KEYS FOR THE CURRENT TIME. THE RUC...BY 18Z TO 21Z TODAY...INDICATES THAT THE LIGHT NNE FLOW OVER THE KEYS WILL FINALLY TURN SSE. I WILL INDICATE THIS TREND IN THE 1030 AM COASTAL MARINE ISSUANCE...OPTING TO USE "VARIABLE WINDS" FOR THE MID DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON TRANSITION PERIOD. AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN AROUND...THE CONVERGENT LINE SHOULD DISSIPATE...BUT THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND "PARTLY CLOUDY" CONDITIONS LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KEYS SHOULD MOVE IN. NO UPDATES ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED FOR THE PUBLIC ZONE FORECASTS. .EYW...NONE. CLB fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1020 AM CST SUN MAR 26 2000 STRONGER WINDS STARTING TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. 12Z RAOB FROM KUNR HAD 40 KTS AT 850MB...INITIALIZED WELL BY 12Z MODELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z ETA AND 15Z RUC SHOW PROFILES BECOMING ADIABATIC TO 850-800 MB WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN 15Z-21Z TIME FRAME... WITH 40-45KTS AT THESE LEVELS. NELIGH PROFILER ALSO SHOWING 50KTS IN LOWEST GATES DURING LAST TWO HOURS. WINDS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ALREADY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA... AIDED BY 5-6MB/3HR PRES RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. ALL THIS LEADS TO DECISION TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY. QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST. WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT IN PROXIMITY TO FRONT REFLECTED IN 850MB WINDS OF 35KTS ON 18Z FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP IT ACROSS SD AND ONE TIER OF COUNTIES INTO MN AND IA...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FARTHER EAST FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION. WILL WORD ADVISORY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AS BEST SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER WAVE FORECAST OVER AREA AT 00Z. .FSD...WIND ADVISORY INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF KPQN TO KSUX LINE. HAMEN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND 1024 AM MST SUN MAR 26 2000 LATEST RUC INDICATING BL WINDS OF 30 KTS. THIS IS VERIFYING LOW ACCORDING TO 88D VAD AND MCK PROFILER. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE WIND ADVISORIES AND REMOVE BECOMING REFERENCES. .GLD...WIND ADVISORY TODAY...E CENTRAL CO...NW KS...SW NE...N CENTRAL KS... SVEN ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 220 PM CST SUN MAR 26 2000 CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SW MISSOURI AT 20Z CONTINUES TO TRUCK EASTWARD THROUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AXIS WITH LI TO MINUS 10. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. APPEARS 12Z ETA HAS SOMEWHAT UNDERFORECAST INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN MISSOURI...SO PREFER THE MORE UNSTABLE RUC LIFTED INDEX PROGS. RUC LOWERS LI/S TO MINUS 6 OVER SE MISSOURI BY MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUSTAIN COMPLEXES MOVING E/SE FROM WESTERN MISSOURI LATER THIS EVENING. PLAN TO MENTION SEVERE WORDING IN FAR WEST ZONES AROUND POPLAR BLUFF FOR TONIGHT. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY BECOMING ESTABLISHED PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT. EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS KEPT SFC DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON OVER WEST KENTUCKY. FLOW SHOULD BACK AROUND IN TIME TO BRING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS SOUTH AND WEST OF PAH. ONCE COLD FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE FA BY 12Z...ALL MODELS SHOW RAPID DRYING FROM THE LOW LEVELS ON UP. BASED ON MODEL RH PROGS...WILL HAVE TO YANK MORNING POPS ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES AND GO MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR SKY CONDITIONS MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MONDAY...WITH MIXING HEIGHTS OVER 5K FEET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER 20 PLUS KNOT WINDS TO MIX DOWN...SO WILL MENTION BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS. A SECONDARY VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SRN INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND KEEP TEMPS UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NGM MOS SHOWS. NGM MOS CLOUD FORECASTS APPEAR OUT TO LUNCH MONDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED PROGS... UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY COOL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NCEP SOLUTION CALLS FOR PIECES OF ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH TO PASS SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY...UNDERCUTTING THE NORTHEASTERN UPPER LOW. COULD HAVE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN OR EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES. .PAH...NONE. MY ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1210 PM CST SUN MAR 26 2000 ...UPDATED TO EXPAND WIND ADVISORY AREA... STRONGER WINDS STARTING TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. 12Z RAOB FROM KUNR HAD 40 KTS AT 850MB...INITIALIZED WELL BY 12Z MODELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z ETA AND 15Z RUC SHOW PROFILES BECOMING ADIABATIC TO 850-800 MB WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN 15Z-21Z TIME FRAME... WITH 40-45KTS AT THESE LEVELS. NELIGH PROFILER ALSO SHOWING 50KTS IN LOWEST GATES DURING LAST TWO HOURS. WINDS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ALREADY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA... AIDED BY 5-6MB/3HR PRES RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. ALL THIS LEADS TO DECISION TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY. QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST. WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT IN PROXIMITY TO FRONT REFLECTED IN 850MB WINDS OF 35KTS ON 18Z FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP IT ACROSS SD AND ONE TIER OF COUNTIES INTO MN AND IA...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FARTHER EAST FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION. WILL WORD ADVISORY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AS BEST SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER WAVE FORECAST OVER AREA AT 00Z. .FSD...WIND ADVISORY INTO EARLY EVENING ENTIRE CWA HAMEN sd