AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1000 AM CST FRI MAR 24 2000 LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE OBSERVED ON 12Z SHV SOUNDING THIS MORNING WITH COLUMN FAIRLY SATURATED UP TO 750MB LEVEL. THE LATEST RUC SUGGESTS DRYING FROM ABOVE WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO ABOUT 850MB BUT KEEPS ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY MOIST AT 5K THIS AFTERNOON. EXTREME NORTHWEST SECTIONS SHOULD GO AHEAD AND BREAK OUT BUT MAY NEED TO LEAVE REMAINDER OF AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS OF COURSE WILL LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT SO MAY NEED TO DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK BOUNDARY/TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WEST OF ACT AND TXK ONTO NEAR FSM. SOME FORCING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN AND TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. WITH WEAK CAP IN PLACE...AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS MOVING NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP FCST AS IS. NEW 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...SUGGESTING A WET START TO THE WEEKEND. MIDNIGHT FCSTER HIT THIS WELL BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE...WE SHALL SEE. 13 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1015 PM EST FRI MAR 24 2000 NOW THAT THE PCPN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS THE CWFA... WILL UPDATE THE ZONES AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA... WITH A GOOD DRY PUNCH APPROACHING... WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE WV IMAGERY. SOME SIZEABLE BREAKS IN THE STRATOCU ARE PRESENT OVER WEST MICHIGAN... ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THE 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH ITS BACK EDGE CORRESPONDING NICELY WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENTLY OBSERVED PCPN. THERE IS STILL SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IN PLACE... WITH DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E VALUES NEAR ZERO... BUT WITH THINGS DRYING OUT ABOVE 850MB... THERE SHOULD BE NO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK... BRINGING IN DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE... ALTHOUGH IT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL WORD THINGS AS CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY EARLY WITH CLEARING TOWARD MORNING. THE NEXT SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HIGH WIND ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY... WITH 40KT WINDS PROGGED JUST OFF THE SURFACE WHILE GOOD ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND PRESSURE RISES ARE OCCURRING. WILL LEAVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ALONE. TRH .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 400 PM EST FRI MAR 24 2000 FCST CONCERNS INVOLVE DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE MONDAY. WV LOOP SHOWS THE REMAINS OF THE SW CUT OFF LIFTING RAPIDLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS HAPPENING AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING THOUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HEADING EAST AT A DECENT CLIP. THE TWO WILL PHASE TOGETHER OVER SW ONTARIO TONIGHT AND WILL HELP FORM AT DEEP LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY TONIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE PATTERN IS OFF THE NW COAST. IT APPEARS DESTINED TO SPLIT AS A JET MAX HELPS CUT OFF ANOTHER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. THE SHRTWV OVER S WI WILL CUT UP ACROSS THE U.P. THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE MDT TO HVY AT TIMES WITH ABOUT .25 TO .5 OF QPF. SHOWALTER INDICES ON THE RUC DROP TO UNDER 0 FOR A TIME THIS EVENING... SO HAVE ADDED A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO THE EAST. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT...BY DAYBREAK EAST. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S WITH THE STIFF SOUTH WINDS AND THE LOW CLOUDS. TOMORROW SHOULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY. FIRST, THE MODELS PROG A DRY SLOT TO BLOW OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL U.P. IN THE MORNING. HAVE WORDED MORNING SUN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPS MAY POP UP TO 50 OR SO IN THE SUNSHINE. AS THE DAY WEARS ON THE UPPER LEVELS WILL COOL AND MOISTEN. CU WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST. AM EXPECTING SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT JUST AFTER NOON. HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE. THE 18Z MESOETA IS DEAD SET AGAINST IT WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 40S AND WET BULB HGTS AROUND 3500FT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE COOLER AND DO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY. IT WILL BE VERY ELEVATION DEPENDANT SO WILL WORD ONLY IN THE NW AND CENTRAL HILLS. WILL GO FOR LIKELY POPS NORTH AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH. SKIES CLEAR TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE THERMAL THROUGH PASSES. TEMPS NOT COOL AS THE LL CHILL IS LACKING AND THE WIND STAYS UP. WENT AT OR ABOVE MOS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A FINE DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS DRY AIR COMES IN ON THE NW FLOW. TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL... MAINLY BETWEEN 45 AND 50. THE NEXT PROBLEM IS THE SHRTWV SLIPPING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH FROM THE NW. THE 72 HR AVN SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD BRING A SWATH OF SNOW (SOME RAIN SOUTH) ACROSS THE U.P...PERHAPS A FEW INCHES ESP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL GO TOWARD THIS SOLUTION HAS IT HAS EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS MARCH...AND ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN MARCH. WILL DRASTICALLY LOWER MONDAYS HIGHS AND STRENGTH THE WORDING ON PRECIP. THIS LOW BOMBS OFF THE NE COAST MONDAY NIGHT... LEAVING DRIER AIR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN BECOMES BLOCKED UP AGAIN. 00Z MRF/12Z AVN EXTENSION SHOW MODERATING TEMPS AND LITTLE PRECIP NEXT WEEK. .MQT...NONE. ALTOE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 312 PM CST FRI MAR 24 2000 SFC ANLYS AT 2000 UTC SHWS CD ALG FOD GBD LN. SURGE OF MID 50S DEW PTS POOLING AHD OF FNT OVR NW MO. CONSISTENT CU FIELD TRACKING EWRD WITH FNT AND 1900 RUC INITIALIZATION DATA SHWS LWR/UPR TROPOSOSPHERIC CNVGNC/DVGNC COUPLET BENEATH RIGHT EXIT RGN. WILL CLOSELY WATCH RADAR FOR SCT -SHRA NXT FEW HRS OVR XTRM NW MO OTHERWISE WILL GO WITH PTLDY CLDY THIS EVNG THEN CLRG. LWR TROPOSPHERIC CAA RATHER STOUDT BHD FNT SO WILL TRIM TEMPS A CAT OVR NRN ZNS TNGT WHICH IS MORE IN LN WITH FWC AND A CAT LWR FOR SAT. XPCT SAT TO BE ABT 8-10 DEG COOLER THAN TDY BUT STILL A NICE DAY NONE THE LESS. UNDR WEAK RDG SAT NITE THINK CONDS FAVORABLE FOR TEMPS CLOSER TO COOLER FWC GUIDANCE AND MAYBE A CAT LWR. TRIMMED SAT NITE MINS IN THIS DIRECTION. FOR SUN MODELS SUGGESTING WEAK DIVERGENT FLW ACR PLNS WITH LYR OF MID TROPOSPHERIC MSTR. THERE DOES NOT APPR TO BE ANY SGFNT LIFT SO FOR NOW WENT PTLY CLDY. MED RANGE MODELS IN BETTER PHASE TDY AND BRING NXT PAC SHRT WV INTO FCST AREA FOR TUE INTO WED TIME PRD. MADE NO CHGS TO CRNT XTND FCST BUT DID LWR TEMPS TO NRML OR SLIGHTLY BLO IN LATER PRDS. .EAX...NONE. BODNER mo FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 850 PM CST FRI MAR 24 2000 FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS PCPN/CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS. SHRA/TSRA? FROM KMVX-88D CONTINUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF VORT CENTER IN NEG TILT TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS EASTERN ND ATTM. STRONGEST RETURNS NEAR CENTER OF VORT APPROACHING KMVX RDA. HAD THE LOOK OF TSRA HOWEVER CORES VERY LOW AND LDS NOT INDICATING ANY STRIKES. ABOVE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN. FARTHER WEST CU FIELD HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING MAIN CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS NORTHERN 2/3 OF FA. LATEST RUC HOLDS CLOUDS INTACT ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN FA WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVR DVL SET. FARTHER SOUTH ENOUGH BREAKS TO WARRANT PC OR MOCLR. MAX CAA OVR EASTERN NODAK FROM MSAS HELPING TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGEST SFC WINDS. WIND AND CLOUD COVER TO OFFSET CAA ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ONLY WIND A FACTOR ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT TEMPS RUNNING ON SCHEDULE SO NOT EXPECTING TO MAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THIS DEPARTMENT. MAIN ALTERATIONS WILL BE CLOUD AND PCPN WORDING. .FGF...NONE. VOELKER nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 320 AM CST SAT MAR 25 2000 VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND IS WEAKENING WITH TIME. 250 MB JET OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST WITH A THUNDERSTORM FORMING RECENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. RECENT RUC/ETA GUIDANCE PROJECTS THIS JET STREAK TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY...POSSIBLY PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME. TWO FAST MOVING MID-LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE OVER ARIZONA AND THE OTHER NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY REACHING WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. WITH PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION WITH 20 POPS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...BUT FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO STABLE...SO WILL REMOVE POPS HERE. THE SCENARIO BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH INCREASES...EXPECT DRYLINE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTION MAY THEN INCREASE AS STORMS ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE RED RIVER MONDAY MORNING. PLAN TO INCLUDE 40 POPS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY ON TRACK AT THIS POINT. RECENT AVN SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY SO WILL REMOVE MENTION OF POPS FOR LATE MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. OTHERWISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY STILL BE UNSETTLED AS LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIKELY EJECTING EASTWARD. PRELIM... GAG 68/42/78/45 0/0/30/0 OKC 73/47/76/47 0/20/30/40 SPS 78/52/80/50 30/30/30/0 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. JAMES ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 915 AM CST SAT MAR 25 2000 UPDATED TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM ZONES AS VISIBILITIES RAPIDLY IMPROVED FROM 14-15Z. CAN'T RULE OUT THE SAME SITUATION TOMORROW SO WILL LOOK AT THIS FOR AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE. WILL LEAVE AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN AT THIS TIME BUT MAY UPDATE LATER DEPENDING ON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS DISSIPATING FOG BANK. SOUNDING FROM KLIX AT 12Z SHOWS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND 18Z RUC MODEL SHOWS 10-5 PERCENT RH AIR AT 700 MB WHICH WILL MINIMIZE CLOUD GROWTH MUCH LIKE FRIDAY. .NEW...NONE. LA...NONE. MS...NONE. 13 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 915 AM CST SAT MAR 25 2000 MORNING RAOBS SCARY LOOKING AT SHV/FTW WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ALSO...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS/MID LEVEL FLOW...STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TOTALS NEAR THREE INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY ALREADY THIS MORNING. EAST TEXAS CONVECTION HAS TRIED TO SHOW A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST HOUR BUT LATEST RUC SUGGESTS CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AND DEVELOP SLOWLY EASTWARD. WEAK CAP/VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE/LOW WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS/SFC TROUGH TO FOCUS CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS...ALL LEAD TO LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS...DEPENDENT UPON ANY KIND OF DAYTIME HEATING. CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON POPS/SEVERE WORDING AND TEMPS. MAY MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAT SOME WORDING CHANGES...WILL LEAVE CURRENT FCST BASICALLY UNCHANGED. MORE FIREWORKS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. STAY TUNED...13 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 945 AM CST SAT MAR 25 2000 FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS WIND. WDL PROFILER STILL SHOWING 50 KT WIND AT 850 MB LEVEL AND A NUMBER OF SUSTAINED 25 KT REPORTS. IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR ADVSY CRITERIA BUT GRADIENT IS FCST TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVSY FOR NOW AND WILL LIKELY JUST ISSUE SHORT TERM TO HANDLE WINDY AREAS. I COULD SEE SOME SPOTS REACHING CRITERIA IN THE TYPICAL WINDY CORRIDOR KILL...KMKT...KAEL AREA. OTHERWISE LOOKS FAIRLY DRY IN LOW LEVELS SW AREAS..AND SOME CU DVLPMT PSBL EAST CENTRAL INTO INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. SOUNDINGS AND SHORT TERM SFC TEMPS OFF RUC AND ETAWX SUPPORT LOW TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS MOST SPOTS. MAYBE UPPER 40S FAR EAST. .MSP...NONE RICHARDSON mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 900 AM EST SAT MAR 25 2000 WELL WE HAVE SOME MRNG -SHRA WITH THE WMFNT...YDA I THOUGHT THIS WOULD REMAIN W AND N OF THE BGM CWA. EVEN A FEW -SHRA INTO PA. AT LEAST THE PCPN WILL BE (WAS) BRIEF AND GNRLY LIGHT FOR THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH GOT IT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING OUR ERN ZONES BY LATE MRNG. MESOETA AND RUC ARE INDICATING THE POTNL FOR REDVLPMNT THIS AFTN AS THE CDFNT MOVS INTO THE RGN...SPCLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z FROM THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER. CAPES ARND 600 WITH LI'S -2. FEATURE TO WATCH SEEMS TO BE THE (PRE)FNTL CLD BAND CRNTLY XTNDG FROM ONTARIO INTO CNTRL OH. THIS BAND SHUD DVLP INTO A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA AS THE FNT APRCHS OUR WRN ZONES LATER THIS AFTN. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS BAND BRINGS IT INTO OUR FAR WRN ZONES (STEUBEN) ARND 19Z. CONCERNING TEMPS...SAT PIX SHOWS PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH READINGS ALREADY NEAR 60 ACRS WRN NYS. XPCT SW WINDS AND WARMER AIR TO GET INTO ERN SXNS (MSV AND UCA) THIS AFTN. WILL STAY WITH CRNT FCST MAXES OF 65-70 MOST AREAS. MAINLY EDITORIAL TWEEKS IN THE MRNG UPDATE. .BGM...NONE. BRADY ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1000 AM EST SAT MAR 25 2000 KGSP RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING E OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 15Z...WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SEEN OVER WRN TN/CENTRAL KY. NEITHER THE 06Z ETA NOR THE LATEST RUC DEVELOP MUCH PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT SINCE A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY PRESENT...WILL KEEP THE 30 PERCENT IN THERE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT IS BASICALLY ON TRACK. MAY SPLIT OFF THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AROUND GRD TO BUMP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND WILL ALSO TWEAK SC MTN TEMPS UP A BIT...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL. .GSP...NONE. MOORE sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 215 PM CST SAT MAR 25 2000 AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER SRN MISSOURI THIS MORNING...AND WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF CGI-PAH LINE AT 20Z. THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB COLD FRONT THAT RUC/ETA HANDLED WELL. MODELS PUSH THE 850 FRONT SOUTH OF THE FA THIS EVENING. MAY MENTION EVENING SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTH BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AT PRESS TIME. OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY TONIGHT IS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM KANSAS DIRECTLY OVER THE FA. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RADIATE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN FORM LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN MOISTENED THE GROUND TODAY. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ETA...ARE FASTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE SPEED OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL NEED TO ADD MENTION OF PRECIP TO FAR WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ETA INCREASES CAPES TO 1000 J/KG AND FRONT ENTERS NW MISSOURI BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE PLENTIFUL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THUNDER IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE 700 MB OMEGA FIELDS AND FAIRLY STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7 DEGREES C/KM AT 00Z MONDAY/. THE RAPID SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL BELOW FLOOD GUIDANCE. THE GROUND HAS HAD SEVERAL DAYS TO DRY OUT. THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM MEANS MONDAY SHOULD TURN OUT MAINLY DRY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS IN MOST ZONES. MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE COOLER TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MRF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE IN BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY. AS USUAL...TIMING THE CLEARING OF COLD ADVECTION STRATOCU IS A CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY. WILL PLAY THE CLOUDS UP IN THE NORTHEAST AND GO FOR CLEARING SOUTHWEST ZONES MONDAY. EXTENDED FORECAST... STILL A WIDE ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. NOGAPS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW STUCK OVER THE CALIFORNIA AREA ALL WEEK. THIS WOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK. MRF REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT...AND NCEP PROGS SUPPORT KEEPING MENTION OF SHOWERS STARTING WEDNESDAY. .PAH...NONE. MY ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 200 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2000 18Z SFC CHART INDICATING THE COLD FNT NOW ENTERING THE NRN COUNTIES OF THE CWFA. THIS CONFIRMED WITH LATEST VIS SAT AND 88D. SHOWERS VERY ISOLATED WITH THE BEST ACTIVITY STILL PRECEDING THE FNT BY 50- 60 MILES. CELL PASSING JUST SOUTH OF STATION HAS PRODUCED SOME THUNDER HOWEVER 50 DBZ REFLECTIVITY TOPS OUT AT APPROX 12K. VIL RUNNING AROUND 30 MAX. SFC DWPTS HAVE COME UP AND ARE NOW IN THE MID 50S WITH THE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WE HAVE EXCEEDED THE RUC CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 70. WILL EXPECT MORE SHRA/TSRA TO BLOOM ACROSS CWFA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FNT SHOULD TERMINATE PCPN SHORTLY AFTER FNLT PASSAGE WITH FNT EXITING ERN KY AROUND 00Z. WILL CONTINUE A LINGERING SPRINKLE EAST THIS EVENING AND CLEARING TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM A DUD FOR OUR CWFA PCPN. APPEARS THE MID LVL ENERGY WENT NORTH AND THE GULF STATES CONVECTION ROBBED US OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. NEXT SYSTEM THAT ALL MODELS BRING IN MON MORNING IS SHAPING UP TO BE SIMILAR SCENARIO. AVN HAS THE BEST MOISTURE PATTERN WITH A WRM FNT FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A COLD FNT DURING THE DAY. WILL INTRODUCE POPS SUN NIGHT FOR EARLY MON AND EXPECT LOW LIKELY POP ON MON. AVN MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ON TUE MORNING AND CHANCE POPS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH A S/W TO FOLLOW THE MAIN FNT. TUE EVENING AND WED AM APPEAR DRY WITH A WRM FNT/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BRING GENERAL RAIN TO AREA WED AFTERNOON INTO THU. WILL NOT GET FANCY WITH TIMING IN EXTENDED AND WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ALL THREE DAYS. MOS NUMBERS LOOK CLOSE BUT HAVE BEEN RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREE COOL LATELY. LOW 70S SEEMS RATHER WARM FOR POST FNTL BUT THIS IS LATE MARCH AND WE ARE LOOKING FOR A GOODLY AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON SUN SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING MOS POP IN 4TH PD BUT WILL STILL GO WITH LOW LIKELY. PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES. WORK ZONES OUT SHORTLY. CCF LOZ 040/073 047/069 039 22103 JKL 048/073 050/068 041 22103 .JKL...NONE. DUSTY ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 240 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2000 SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY BEFORE A MUCH STRONGER STORM INFLUENCES THE REGION DURING MID WEEK. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: LATEST ANALYSIS HAS SURFACE RIDGE AND FIRST BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA ATTM. LEADING EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CONN VLY ATTM. THIS LINES UP VERY WELL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE EARLIER RUC/MESOETA FORECAST. EXPECT THE RIDGE AXIS TO BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/26. 12Z MODEL FORCAST OF THE (ETA/NGM) REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE FASTER TREND FROM THE 00Z MODEL RUN HAVING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHING THE PENOBSCOT BAY AROUND 12Z/26 AND HINTING AT SOME WEAK WAVE FORMATION ALONG THE FRONT. THE AVN REMAINS THE SLOWEST HAVING THE FRONT JUST MOVING OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AT THE SAME TIME. THIS DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A SOMEWHAT STRONGER H3 JET (AVN MODEL) MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TOWARD THE MARITIMES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (LYR QG FORCING) IS STRONGER WITH THE AVN (ETA ALSO HINTS AT THIS) BEFORE SHIFTING THIS SUPPORT INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN WITH THE HIGHER POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING). ONCE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HOLD ON TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY NORTH/MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT SO WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THESE AREAS OUT. DOWNEAST WILL MENTION BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH DRYING SHOULD DEVELOP DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN TO RESULT IN PS EVERYWHERE MONDAY. EXTENDED: EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF EARLIER RUNS BRINGING NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM INTO THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BASED ON POSITIONING OF SURFACE AND UPPER LOW FEATURES IT APPEARS TO A RAIN EVENT FOR THE CWA...HOWEVER IT MAY BRIEFLY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW/MXD PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WILL CONTINUE WITH A RAIN LIKELY SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. COASTAL WATERS: WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SSE AS LLVL WARM ADVCN COMMENCES. EXPECT WIND TO JUST FALL SHORT OF SCA CRITERIA BUT WILL MENTION WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25 KT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SUN MORN AS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. CCF: BGR WB 038/048 033/050 036 0176- 332/344/00/11 CAR WB 035/043 029/045 028 01764 332/344/00/09 .CAR...NONE. FITZSIMMONS me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 110 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2000 FCST CONCERNS ARE WINDS AND PRECIP TRENDS AND TYPE SFC ANALYSIS AT NOON HOUR CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVR ERN ONTARIO. LOW IS HELPING TO GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS OVR FA THIS AFTN. ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND (SUS 26KT...GUSTS OF 40KT) PROBABLY WONT BE REACHED ACROSS MAJORITY OF FA DUE TO RAPIDLY DEPARTING VORT MAX AND LACK OF MIXING WITH CLOUD COVER FIRMLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...DUE TO EXPOSED NATURE OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND METARS FROM CMX REPORTING PEAK WIND OF 48KT THIS MORNING...HAVE WENT WITH AFTERNOON HIGH WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PENINSULA. OTHER CONCERN OF AFTERNOON IS PRECIP TYPE AS CAA BEHIND SHRT WV IS A BIT STRONGER THAN MODELS INDICATED THIS MORNING. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE COMPARED WITH 12Z RAOB TEMPS IN INL AND CWLO. LATEST RUC SHOWS H8 TEMPS OF -6 C PUNCHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL UPR MI BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THAT NERN MN AND CMX REPORTING LGT SNOW WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO MID TO UPPER 30S...BELIEVE THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. 88D SHOWS SCT SHOWERS...FROM MQT-IMT WESTWARD. COVECTIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF CAA COULD LEAD TO SN MIXING IN AT TIMES WITH RA...AS HAS JUST HAPPENED HERE AT MQT OFFICE...HOWEVER AS AFTERNOON WEARS ON BELIEVE EVENT WL BECOME MORE STRATIFORM WITH LGT RAIN ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND SN MIXING IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. EXCEPTION IS FAR WEST WHERE COLD AIR IS BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED AND SNOW MIXING IN ANYWHERE (NOT JUST HIGHER TERRAIN) IS POSSIBLE. COORD WITH APX. .MQT...HIGH WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON MIZ001-003 GALE WARNING LK SUPERIOR JLA mi