EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 845 PM EST THU MAR 23 2000 RECENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM/CUMULIFORM CLOUDS FROM NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT AND ALONG THE FETCH OF THE GULF STREAM TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. RADAR LOOPS INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTH. LATEST REPORT FROM THE BUOY 20 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL HAD ENE WINDS AT 16 TO 19 KNOTS AND SEAS NEAR 10 FEET. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...RUC AND MESOETA...INDICATE THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS. THIS WILL EASE THE GRADIENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ITS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS LATE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. MAY HAVE TO BREAK OUT BREVARD COUNTY FROM THE COASTAL GROUPING FOR STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE REST OF ONGOING ZONE FORECAST LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. GIVEN THAT A NORTHEAST WIND IS FLOWING ACROSS SUCH A LONG FETCH...FROM CAPES HATTERAS AND LOOKOUT AREA TO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL AS A LONG ENOUGH DURATION...NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS. LOOKING AT CONDITIONS THE PAST 12 HOURS AT THE BUOY EAST OF CHARLESTON SC...SEAS WERE AVERAGING 11 FEET OR MORE. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS AND INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. .MLB...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. AVIATION/FIRE WX...LASCODY PUBLIC/MARINE......WIMMER fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 232 PM EST THU MAR 23 2000 SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH H48 WITH RESPECT TO THE FLORIDA WEATHER PATTERN. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL ADDRESS THE MOISTURE POCKET HUGGING SE COAST FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE CANAVERAL. ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS DEVELOP A SMALL H50 VORT MAX OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND MOVE IT SOUTH AROUND THE BASE OF THE H50 TROF THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE OFFSHORE... BUT THE RUC DEVELOPS A WEAK SECONDARY VORT MAX OVER GEORGIA/ALABAMA AND MOVES IT ACROSS KJAX TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORT MAX. THIS COULD INDUCE IN A FEW LIGHT COASTAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW UP TO H70. HOWEVER...UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FEATURE WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. MAY INTRODUCE POPS FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL REGIONS TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THEM BELOW 20 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...A TEXTBOOK OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE H85-H50 LAYER OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP THE FORECAST HIGH AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL DAMPEN OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS RIDES OVER ITS TOP...BUT THIS WILL JUST SERVE TO PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY ON TOP OF FLORIDA. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME CLOUDS AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDUCE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUXES...WITH HIGHS NEAR CLIMO...AND LOWS AT OR ABOVE CLIMO. EXTENDED...SEE LITTLE NEED TO CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST. MRF INDICATES THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. AROUND 12Z SUN AND OFF THE FLORIDA COAST BY 12Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS IT DOES...IT DECOUPLES THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTH WHILE GIVING IT LIMITED MOISTURE TO START WITH. A 90 KNOT H25 JET MAX IS INDICATED OVER THE PENINSULA BY 00Z MONDAY AND COULD ENHANCE THE ENVIRONMENT TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS TIME. MARINE...BUOYS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC PUSHES SOUTH...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT LONGER TO SUBSIDE AS SWELLS GENERATED BY THE LONG NORTH-NORTHEAST FETCH CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. SEAS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS... DAB BB 060/075 058/077 057 81100 MCO BB 058/079 057/080 058 81000 MLB BB 063/077 064/078 062 81100 .MLB...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. AVIATION/FIRE WX...TROUTMAN PUBLIC/MARINE......BRAGAW fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 850 PM EST THU MAR 23 2000 01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON HAVE GONE NEARLY CALM. FOG LOOP SHOWED A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z AND CURRENT TIME... AND ALL THAT REMAINS IS A SMALL PATCH OF SC OVER WV PANHANDLE. EXPECT SKIES TO BE CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE TIME ZONES ARE ISSUED. FOG WAS A PROBLEM LAST NIGHT... WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING WELL BELOW A MILE. STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.. AND 18Z ETA AND 21Z RUC DONT REALLY SHOW ANY DRYING OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNS OF FOG YET... BUT LEFTOVER MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG AS THE NIGHT GOES ON... AND CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THAT WELL. SURFACE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S OVER THE AREA.. AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP DOWN CLOSE TO THOSE READINGS. CURRENT ZONES HAVE TEMPS DROPPING DOWN WELL INTO THE 30S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WHILE SOME PLACES MAY SNEAK DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW 40.. FEEL THAT CURRENT MIN FORECASTS MAY BE A CAT TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS... AND CLEAN UP WORDING FOR CLOUD COVER IN TONIGHTS FORECAST. LATER PERIODS LOOK GOOD. .LWX...NONE. MARGRAF! md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 254 PM CST THU MAR 23 2000 VIS LOOP THRU 1955 UTC SHWS LO/MID CLD DECK WRAPPED ARND UPR LO OVR SW OK. LEADING EDG OF CLDS OVERSPREADING WRN CWA BUT E RMNS MAINLY CLR WITH TEMPS IN 70 DEG NEIGHBORHOOD. DUE TO STG LWR TROPOSPHERIC RDG OVR ERN U.S. DRIER MID 40S DEW PTS BEING ADVTD INTO FCST AREA BY WAY OF SE BNDRY LYR GRADIENT. HOWEVER MODELS FCST INSTABILITY AXIS TO SWEEP ACR CWA LTR TNGT AS 50 DEG SFC DEW PTS GET DISPLACED OVR FCST AREA AHD OF LIFTING SW LO. RUC INDICATES RAPID DESTABILIZATION ARND 0600 UTC WITH -3 LI'S AND 700-500 HPA DELTA T'S IN 20-23 DEG C RANGE OVR WRN CWA. WITH DECENT DRY LN TRAILING INSTABILITY AXIS OVR SRN PLNS THIS SHLD PROVIDE LO LVL SPARK TO IGNITE CNVTN LTR THIS EVNG. WITH MOST LIFTING DRY LNS THUS FAR THIS SEASON THE MID/UPR SHEAR HAS OUTRUN SO-CALLED DRY LN. HOWEVER INGREDIENTS APPR TO BE MORE IN PHASE WITH ANTICIPATED EVENT TNGT. WILL NOT INSERT IN FCST BUT COULD PSBLY SEE ISOLATED GUSTY WNDS AND AT LEAST SMALL HAIL LTR TNGT. DUE TO XPTD NATURE OF EVENT NOW LOOKING MORE LIKE BKN LN OF CNVTN WILL CUT DOWN ON CRNT QPF FCST. WILL STAY WITH CATEGORICAL MENTION OF PCPN AND ADJUST WORDING TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING NAMELY LATE TNGT OVR ERN ZNS. WILL NOT DEVIATE FM CRNT TEMP AND GUIDANCE FCST. MODELS FCST AXIS OF 500-100 HPA POT VORTICITY THRU SW CWA BY 1200 UTC AND THRU NE ZNS BY 1500 UTC. WILL THEREFORE REMOVE POPS FOR FRI AM IN W AND LEAVE CHC POP ERLY FRI E. WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING OF STRATOSPHERIC AIR OVR RGN FRI THINK TEMPS SHLD EXCEED GUIDANCE IN MOST LOCATIONS. CRNT FCST REFLECTS THIS SO WILL NOT MAKE SGFNT CHGS. DECENT WKEND SHAPING UP WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO 60S AND DRY CONDS XPTD. LATER HALF OF XTND FCSTLKS INTERESTING. MRF ONCE AGN SUGGESTING DEEP CLOSED LO MVG ACR SRN PLNS WITH SEF CAN SHOWING DEEP ERN U.S. TROF THEREFORE SLOWER AND FTRH S MVMNT OF NXT SW LO. WILL KEEP DRY FCST INTACT ON MON THEN INTRODUCE CHC FOR PCPN TUE/WED. .EAX...NONE. BODNER mo SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 800 PM MST THU MAR 23 2000 ...WILL UPDATE STATE AND TFX ZONE FORECASTS... UPR TROF OVER CENTRAL MT SHIFTING E...BUT SLOW TO END PRECIP OVER SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF CWA. SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SW MT SHOULD END SHORTLY. HOWEVER LATEST WEY OBS INDICATES SNOW CONTINUING. NEW CONCERN IS MOISTURE DROPPING OUT OF ALTA. SFC ANAL SHOWS SFC PRES RISES ASSOC WITH 2NDRY CDFNT OVER SRN ALTA. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW INDICATED WITH THIS FEATURE. LATEST RUC SHOWS A VORT LOBE SAGGING ALONG HI-LINE AROUND 09Z AS MID LVL WINDS VEER TO NW. WILL UPDATE ZONES ALONG HI-LINE FOR MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND NW WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING. WILL UPDATE SFP FOR THESE CHANGES AND OTHER MT AFDS. EYSSAUTIER GTF 1000 HLN 1000 HVR 4200 mt NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 200 PM PST THU MAR 23 2000 SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEVADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A PACIFIC STORM WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE GREAT BASIN. THE MAIN STORM ENERGY AND COLDER AIR WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL REACH THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY. SHORT TERM...TROF MOVING EAST OF STATE AT TIME WITH SHWRS ENDING. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NV ALONG OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. WEAK S/WV TROF APPROACHING CALIF COAST IS BEST CAPTURED BY AVN AND RUC. THERMAL PRES TROF DRIFTS EAST INTO NE NV BY FRI EVE AND SERVES AS INSTABILITY AXIS. ETA LOOKS OVERDONE WITH LOW LIFTED INDICES FRI AFTERNOON AND PREFER LESS CONVECTIVE AVN. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ISOLD CONVECTION FRI AFTERNOON. NEXT SYSTEM IN GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG SOUTH ALONG CALIF COAST AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST PER NEW AVN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS GOOD RIDGING BEHIND THIS FEATURE IN GULF AND DIGGING IS SUPPORTED BY SPLIT FLOW AND LONG WAVE PATTERN. WITH COLD AIR AND DYNAMICS LAGGING BACK OVER CALIF...GREAT BASIN WILL JUST SEE THREAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEM. THETA E RIDGE SUPPORTS CONVECTIVE AXIS OVER EXTREME NRN NV LATE SAT. LONG TERM...ENSEMBLE SOLUTION NOT TOO FAR FROM MRF WITH CUT OFF OVER DESERT SW GETTING KICKED OUT BY NEXT S/WV MON. NOGAPS LOOKS WRONG HOLDING LOW OFFSHORE SO LONG WITH NEXT UPSTREAM S/WV ON THE MOVE. SYSTEM ON TUE LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE SIG WEATHER FOR GREAT BASIN AS SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE AND MRF. SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CUT OFF FURTHER NORTH THAN THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. KBB .EKO...NONE. nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR HEADER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1007 AM EST THU MAR 23 2000 N TO NE WINDS 1O TO 20 KT AND GUSTY ALONG COAST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH EROSION AND DISSIPATION OCCURRING PREDOMINANTLY FROM N TO S. 12Z RUC SHOWS SIG RH OVER CSTL SC AND W NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK SO NO SIG CHANGE TO CURRENT FCST. CWF...FPSN7 STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 27 TO 34 KT PAST FEW HRS. STRONG SCA WILL BE MAINTAINED ACCORDING TO PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS ON TRACK. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY DURG THE AFTN AND SEAS SHOULD START TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. .ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC. SLB/SR nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1004 AM EST THU MAR 23 2000 N TO NE WINDS 1O TO 20 KT AND GUSTY ALONG COAST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH EROSION AND DISSIPATION OCCURRING PREDOMINANTLY FROM N TO S. 12Z RUC SHOWS SIG RH OVER CSTL SC AND W NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK SO NO SIG CHANGE TO CURRENT FCST. CWF...FPSN7 STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 27 TO 34 KT PAST FEW HRS. STRONG SCA WILL BE MAINTAINED ACCORDING TO PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS ON TRACK. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY DURG THE AFTN AND SEAS SHOULD START TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. .ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC. SLB/SR nc FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 850 PM CST THU MAR 23 2000 FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS PCPN TRENDS. AREA RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTING VORT OVR N CENTRAL NODAK LIFTING NORTH WITH MAIN PCPN ATTM OVR NORTHERN AND EASTERN FA. IN ITS WAKE A LET UP IN RAIN FALL IN NVA AND DECREASE IN ISEN LIFT VIA I295 SFC FROM FRESH RUC. WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FETCH FEEL BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS S/W EVIDENT FROM WV LOOP OVR WESTERN DAKOTAS SHIFTS EAST AND ISEN LIFT INCREASES AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH CONTINUED WAA. EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF DRY SLOT OVR WESTERN DAKOTAS LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH H85-7 INTEGRATED RH FIELD FROM RUC AND MAY AFFECT WESTERN COUNTIES LATE. SO FAR EVENT HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AS A RAIN PRODUCER. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH WARMEST READINGS OVER FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES YET TO SEE RAIN AND IN STRONGEST ZONE OF WAA. FEEL AS RAIN SHIFTS EAST TEMPS WILL RESPOND TO READING ELSEWHERE. OTWS NOT MUCH OF A TEMP DROP WITH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED WAA. ANY CHANGES WILL BE MAINLY COSMETIC. .FGF...NONE. VOELKER nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1000 AM THU MAR 23 2000 LO LVL MSTR HAS SPRD OVR CWA. 06Z ETA SHOWING LOW LVL MSTR CONTG THRU THE DAY. CUR RUC IS A LTL FASTER WITH CLRG. ATTM WL OPT FOR ETA SOLN WITH CONTD CLDS DURG THE DAY. WRN EDGE OF CLDS HAVE MOVD LTL DURG THE PAST FEW HRS AND SM CLRG MAY OCCUR HERE LATR THIS AFTN. WL ADJUST FCST TO MOSTLY CLDY...BCMG PC LATE IN THE WEST. HIGHS 60/65. .CAE...NONE. CDL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 845 PM CST THU MAR 23 2000 MSAS SHOWS SFC LOW IN NWRN SD AT 02Z. THIS LOW IS DRAWING IN DRIER AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED...ESPECIALLY AFTER LOOKING AT THE KUNR SOUNDING. END RESULT IS THAT PCPN HAS ENDED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MOST PCPN PUSHING INTO ND AND MN. THIS FALLS IN LINE WITH NEW MESO-ETA AND RUC MODELS...WITH PCPN ENDING MOST PLACES BY 06Z. LOOKING AT FORECASTED RUC AND MESO-ETA SOUNDINGS...LOW LEVELS STAY FAIRLY MOIST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ADD MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. END RESULT IS THAT WILL BACKPEDDLE FROM CATEGORICAL PCPN FOR ERN CWA AND PUT IN SOME SMALL POPS. WILL PULL MENTION OF PCPN FROM WESTERN COUNTIES. BASED ON CURRENT DWPTS...FEEL THAT CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS ARE TOO LOW...SO WILL BUMP UP A BIT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO NEATEN UP THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT FORECAST. UPDATED ZONES ALREADY OUT. .ABR...NONE. HINTZ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 830 PM CST THU MAR 23 2000 HAVE UPDATED AND CUT BACK THE POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I29. MESO ETA AND LATEST RUC AGREE THAT BEST LIFT IS NOW PUSHING THRU WRN IA AND WRN MN. THIS IS VERIFYING QUITE WELL ON RADAR. UPPER LOW OVR NCNTRL KS WL CONT TO MOVE ENE DURING THE NIGHT BUT ONLY WEAK LIFT EXPECTED OVR MOST OF CWA REST OF NIGHT...ESPEC W OF I29. WUD EXPECT SERN SD WL SEE SCT RW- MOVE BACK IN DURG THE NIGHT...BUT AREA ALONG AN W OF JAMES RVR MAY NOT SEE ANY MORE RAIN WITH THIS SYS. HAVE ALSO CUT BACK POS FOR FRI MORN TOO BASED ON LATEST INFO. .FSD...NONE. sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1011 AM CST THU MAR 23 2000 CONTEMPLATING CANCELING WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA. PER 12Z RUC...7H JET MAX IS E OF CWFA WITH A 2NDRY MAX S AROUND KFST...5H 90KT MAX IS EXITING INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL MSL GRADIENT AND POOR 85H-5H LR'S OF 3-5 C/KM SUGGEST MINIMAL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT BEST. WITH JAYTON PROFILER SHOWING THAT 7H WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAT WHAT RUC IS DEPICTING AND WINDS SUSTAINED AT 27KT HERE AT KMAF WILL WAIT AT LITTLE LONGER BEFORE CANCELING. NONETHELESS CWFA WILL BE IN THE WINDY CATEGORY... DUST SHOULDN'T BE A PROBLEM PER MARGINAL WIND AND RAINS OF LATE. WSM PROFILER SHOWING WINDS VEERING AROUND SO PASS MAY NOT CATCH ALL OF THE WIND AND WE'LL PROBABLY HAVE ANOTHER MARGINAL WIND EVENT THERE. .MAF... TX...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS...TXZ258. ...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...TXZ045>048-050>053-058>063- 067>070. NM...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...NMZ027. ...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...NMZ028-028- 033-034. GPM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 807 PM EST THU MAR 23 2000 BIG SFC AND UPR-LVL RIDGE OF HI PRESS TO BUILD EAST ACRS THE FA THRU FRI. H85 CAA TO PERSIST THRU FRI AS WELL. UPR-LVLS VERY DRY...SO NO CLDS EXPECTED AT ALL. BORING WX TO CONTINUE. 21Z RUC SHOWS LT WINDS AND SFC TEMPS GETTING DOWN INTO THE 30S BY 09Z TONITE. DEWPTS TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 DEG F TONITE WITH AN INCREASE IN H95 MOISTURE (ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS) NOTED IN RUC DATA. T1MIN TEMPS IN THE M20S TO L30S TONITE. PATCHY FG MAY FORM OVRNITE TONITE AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE GOES-8 FOG PRODUCT FOR ANY SIGNS OF THIS BEFORE INCLUSION IN THE FINAL ZFP. IT MAY STILL BE A LIL TOO EARLY IN THE SEASON TO WORRY ABOUT ALL THIS THOUGH. HAVE BUMPED A FEW OVRNITE MINS UP A NOTCH BASED ON CURRENT OBS TRENDS. ALL OTHER CHANGES TO GOING ZONES PURELY COSMETIC. WORK ZONES AWAY. FINAL ZFP AFTER QUICK LOOK AT THE 02Z OBS AND THE LATEST LAMP DATA. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 845 PM CST THU MAR 23 2000 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. AREA RADARS SHOW PRECIPITATION MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS TOWARDS THE LA CROSSE FORECAST AREA. OBSERVATIONS AT KAEL AND KMCW JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA INDICATE VERY LIGHT RAIN FALLING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH VISIBILITIES OF 7 MILES OR GREATER. DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS STILL RUNNING 10 F OR GREATER MOST AREAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO WISCONSIN NOW...WITH A MID DECK OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A RESIDUAL LOW CENTER IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND A NEW LOW CENTER FORMING IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ETA RUNS AT 18Z AND 00Z FORECAST PRECIPITATION TO ONLY MAKE IT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z. THE 18Z RUNS QPF FIELD HAS CORRESPONDED WELL WITH ACTUAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE LAST 9 HOURS. RUC PRECIPITATION FIELD HAS NO CLUE WHAT IS OCCURRING. WITH GOOD PERFORMANCE OF ETA RUNS SO FAR...THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. WILL CHANGE WORDING FOR WESTERN SECTIONS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP WISCONSIN ZONES DRY. BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MISSISSIPPI BY 6AM...BUT THAT WILL BE IN THE NEXT PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER TO HELP HOLD UP THE TEMPERATURES. WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS A CATEGORY OR TWO MOST AREAS. .LSE...NONE. NELSON wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 205 AM CST FRI MAR 24 2000 SHORT TERM... NUMEROUS BANDS OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPED THIS EVENING, WITH ONLY ONE MAIN ONE SURVIVING, NOW LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN. NOT COMPLETELY SURE WHY THE OTHERS DISSIPATED OVER SOUTHERN IA. PERHAPS THE WEAKENING DRY SLOT PINCHED OFF SOME OF THE MOISTURE. THESE RAIN BANDS WERE BEING GENERATED VIA STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE POTENT 30-40 UNIT VORT CENTER NOW MOVING INTO SE NEBR. A SECONDARY AREA OF TSRA MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT CENTER/COLD POOL WAS PERSISTING OVER NE KS AND MAY STILL GET INTO STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND KEEP IN OUR ZONE FORECAST AS NECESSARY. THE ETA/RUC MODELS SEEM TO GRASP THIS PRECIP WELL. THE STORMS ARE ALSO NEAR AN AREA OF PERSISTENT SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AROUND TOPEKA. PRESSURE FALLS OVER SW IA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE WARM FRONT/OLD LOW CENTER IN NE KS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL IA TODAY. THE PRECIP IN KS COULD BE IT FOR US TODAY, HOWEVER, COLD FRONT TAKING SHAPE IN SD AND NEBR IS DEFINITELY A CONSIDERATION THIS AFTERNOON. THETA E RIDGE TRIES TO REFORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH DEVELOPS DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AFTER 18Z. DRY SLOT HAS WEAKENED, AND FLOW OVER KS IS WEAK, SO LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL NOT BE CLEANED OUT. THE ETA GENERATES CAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG, SO SHRA CERTAINLY WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO UNDERESTIMATED WARMING THE LAST 2-3 DAYS, WHICH PROBABLY MEANS INSTABILITY IS OFF WHEN MODIFIYING ETA FORECAST SOUNDING. COLD ADVECTION AND STRONGER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BE ENTERING THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY N. THEREFORE, I WILL INCLUDE A 30-40 POP. FWC NUMBERS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WILL BE USED FOR FORECAST HIGHS. LONGER TERM... TWO SHORTWAVES OF CONSEQUENCE WILL BE DRIVING BY JUST TO OUR N. STRONG SUBSIDENT AIR FLOW FOLLOWS BOTH, BEGINNING TONIGHT, AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SUNDAY SHORTWAVE IS A POTENT NW FLOW VARIETY. IF IT WERE MAY OR JUNE, LOOK OUT, BUT THIS ONE WILL BE MOISTURE LIMITED. WILL GO MOSTLY SUNNY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND MAINLY IN NORTHENR IA. S-SW FLOW SHOULD AID WARMUP NICELY. AVN QPF HAS RAINFALL INTO WESTERN IA, SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN THE W, BUT LEAVE THE E DRY SUNDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS IT WILL BE TAKING THE LONG ROUTE THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS FIRST. SHOULD BE A MILD ONE, AND WILL CONTINUE TREND OF GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. NEWEST CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUES TREND OF SW CLOSED LOW STAYING S OF OUR FORECAST AREA TUE-WED. WILL NOT CHANGE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME UNLESS THE MRF SHOWS STRONGLY OTHERWISE. .DSM...NONE KULA ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 255 AM CST FRI MAR 24 2000 PCPN TIMING IS THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS RUNS OF ETA/NGM/AVN HAVE ALL BEEN TOO WEAK WITH THE NRN STREAM S/W TROF DIVING INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING...BUT SEEM TO HAVE PICKED UP ON IT WITH THE 24/00Z RUNS. ETA/AVN PREFERED TO NGM BASED ON INITIALIZATION. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW IN WRN MANITOBA WITH CDFNT SWD INTO WRN DAKS. TO THE SOUTH...SFC LOW CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM SYSTEM IS FILLING AND MERGING INTO THE GENERAL TROFINESS TO THE NW...BUT UPR LOW REMAINS WELL DEFINED. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACRS ERN MN IS OCCURING DUE TO BROAD WAA PTN IN LOW LEVELS AND STG DIFF PVA IN THE MID LEVELS. FOR TODAY...EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN OVR ERN MN/WRN WI TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD WITH BEST WAA FORCING. AFTER THIS...NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SRN MN/WRN WI WL BE IMMEDIATELY IN VCNTY OF UPR LOW WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A PSBL TSTM IN WRN WI/SE MN WHERE 600MB SATURATED EPV/Q VECTOR DIV PROG IS INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND 400MB PV ADV IS STG ON NEW RUC. SECOND CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN ACROS CNTRL MN THIS AFTN. AS SRN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD AND NRN STREAM SYSTEM BECOMES DOMINANT...NEW 80 KT JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP ACRS SD/SRN MN IN BASE OF THIS TROF. RESULT IS THAT CNTRL/NRN MN AREAS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET...AND DECENT DIV AHEAD OF TROF. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVBL FM SRN STREAM SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED BY CDFNT MOVING ACRS MN...SO EXPECT RAIN TO REDEVELOP ACRS CNTRL MN AFT 18Z. GENERALLY APPEARS THAT FWC WILL BE TOO COOL BASED ON TRAJECTORIES AND 900-800MB TEMPS. WILL GO CLOSER TO FAN. FOR TONIGHT...SFC CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH AS JET STREAK MOVES OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LIKELY STILL BE SOME PCPN GOING IN THE EVENING ACROSS NRN PART OF FCST AREA...THEN ENDING ALL AREAS AS STG SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BY 12Z. ON SATURDAY...SHOW BE BREEZY AND COOLER BEHIND CDFNT. FWC GENERALLY LOOKS OK WITH HIGHS BASED ON ETA LOW LEVEL TEMPS...SUN EXPECTED... AND MIXING. WILL GO PARTLY SUNNY NORTH THOUGH...AS SC FORMATION CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR UNDER COOLER 850MB-700MB TEMPS AND IN CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF JET STREAK. NEW MRF SUPPORTS CURRENT EXTENDED PRETTY WELL...AND WILL LEAVE IT ALONE. THX TO DLH FOR COORD. .MSP...NONE DAVIS mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1000 AM CST FRI MAR 24 2000 LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE OBSERVED ON 12Z SHV SOUNDING THIS MORNING WITH COLUMN FAIRLY SATURATED UP TO 750MB LEVEL. THE LATEST RUC SUGGESTS DRYING FROM ABOVE WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO ABOUT 850MB BUT KEEPS ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY MOIST AT 5K THIS AFTERNOON. EXTREME NORTHWEST SECTIONS SHOULD GO AHEAD AND BREAK OUT BUT MAY NEED TO LEAVE REMAINDER OF AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS OF COURSE WILL LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT SO MAY NEED TO DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK BOUNDARY/TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WEST OF ACT AND TXK ONTO NEAR FSM. SOME FORCING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN AND TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. WITH WEAK CAP IN PLACE...AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS MOVING NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP FCST AS IS. NEW 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...SUGGESTING A WET START TO THE WEEKEND. MIDNIGHT FCSTER HIT THIS WELL BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE...WE SHALL SEE. 13 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 400 PM EST FRI MAR 24 2000 FCST CONCERNS INVOLVE DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE MONDAY. WV LOOP SHOWS THE REMAINS OF THE SW CUT OFF LIFTING RAPIDLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS HAPPENING AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING THOUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HEADING EAST AT A DECENT CLIP. THE TWO WILL PHASE TOGETHER OVER SW ONTARIO TONIGHT AND WILL HELP FORM AT DEEP LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY TONIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE PATTERN IS OFF THE NW COAST. IT APPEARS DESTINED TO SPLIT AS A JET MAX HELPS CUT OFF ANOTHER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. THE SHRTWV OVER S WI WILL CUT UP ACROSS THE U.P. THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE MDT TO HVY AT TIMES WITH ABOUT .25 TO .5 OF QPF. SHOWALTER INDICES ON THE RUC DROP TO UNDER 0 FOR A TIME THIS EVENING... SO HAVE ADDED A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO THE EAST. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT...BY DAYBREAK EAST. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S WITH THE STIFF SOUTH WINDS AND THE LOW CLOUDS. TOMORROW SHOULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY. FIRST, THE MODELS PROG A DRY SLOT TO BLOW OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL U.P. IN THE MORNING. HAVE WORDED MORNING SUN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPS MAY POP UP TO 50 OR SO IN THE SUNSHINE. AS THE DAY WEARS ON THE UPPER LEVELS WILL COOL AND MOISTEN. CU WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST. AM EXPECTING SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT JUST AFTER NOON. HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE. THE 18Z MESOETA IS DEAD SET AGAINST IT WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 40S AND WET BULB HGTS AROUND 3500FT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE COOLER AND DO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY. IT WILL BE VERY ELEVATION DEPENDANT SO WILL WORD ONLY IN THE NW AND CENTRAL HILLS. WILL GO FOR LIKELY POPS NORTH AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH. SKIES CLEAR TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE THERMAL THROUGH PASSES. TEMPS NOT COOL AS THE LL CHILL IS LACKING AND THE WIND STAYS UP. WENT AT OR ABOVE MOS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A FINE DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS DRY AIR COMES IN ON THE NW FLOW. TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL... MAINLY BETWEEN 45 AND 50. THE NEXT PROBLEM IS THE SHRTWV SLIPPING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH FROM THE NW. THE 72 HR AVN SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD BRING A SWATH OF SNOW (SOME RAIN SOUTH) ACROSS THE U.P...PERHAPS A FEW INCHES ESP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL GO TOWARD THIS SOLUTION HAS IT HAS EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS MARCH...AND ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN MARCH. WILL DRASTICALLY LOWER MONDAYS HIGHS AND STRENGTH THE WORDING ON PRECIP. THIS LOW BOMBS OFF THE NE COAST MONDAY NIGHT... LEAVING DRIER AIR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN BECOMES BLOCKED UP AGAIN. 00Z MRF/12Z AVN EXTENSION SHOW MODERATING TEMPS AND LITTLE PRECIP NEXT WEEK. .MQT...NONE. ALTOE mi