EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 855 PM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OVERNIGHT WILL BE ANY DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA AS VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND INTO GEORGIA BY 12Z MONDAY. MESO ETA AND RUC SEEM TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF PVA TO THE NORTH OF THE FA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LESSEN MENTION OF STRONG STORMS. WILL UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A CATEGORY DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED AS DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 60S FA-WIDE. MARINE...RECENT TRENDS AT BUOY 9 STILL INDICATE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS AROUND 8 FEET. WILL KEEP UP WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN LEG OF THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE 20 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED. .MLB...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OVERNIGHT. AVIATION/FIRE WX...PENDERGRAST PUBLIC/MARINE...TROUTMAN fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 135 PM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 CURRENT SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MO INTO SOUTHEAST LA WAS MOVING EAST AT 15 TO 20 KT. A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TX WAS MOVING EAST...WITH SEVERAL MCS DEVELOPMENTS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MODEL COMPARISON/ZONES: ALL THREE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES. THE FIRST PERIOD WILL BASICALLY BE A MESOSCALE FORECAST. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BREAKING OUT WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY ZONE...INDICATING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...SOLAR HEATING...AND UPWARD MOTION...EXPECT THIS REGION TO DESTABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND DESTABILIZATION. LATEST RUC FORECASTS A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS...WITH 0-3KM SR HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 600 M2/S2 AND A NICE CURVED HODOGRAPH. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT ALL ZONES...AND TAPER THE RAIN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY MORNING. FAN/FWC ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH POPS AND MAX/MINS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO WILL FOLLOW AN AVERAGE OF THE TWO VERY CLOSELY. AFTER TONIGHT THE FORECAST SHOULD BE EASY AS DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. CWF: WILL CONTINUE SCA BASED ON LATEST BUOY REPORTS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL ALSO KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. EXTENDED: 00 UTC UKMET/MRF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO WILL FOLLOW MRF MOS CLOSELY. LOOKS LIKE A NICE WEEK AFTER TONIGHT. PRELIM NUMBERS... TLH 57 76 43 80 8200 PFN 55 70 51 73 8-00 DHN 52 70 46 76 8-00 ABY 54 70 46 78 8200 VLD 59 73 43 79 8200 TLH... AL...TORNADO WATCH FROM 1245-1900 CST. GA...NONE. FL...TORNADO WATCH FROM 1245-1900 CST. SCA ALL COASTAL WATERS SEGMENTS. FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND. FOURNIER fl SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 210 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2000 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MISSOURI TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST MOVING EASTWARD. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...WITH RADAR SHOWING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER ST. MARY PARISH. FORECAST PERIOD... TONIGHT...QUESTIONS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND LOW TEMPS. USING 80 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUE ON ETA AND RUC MODELS...CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE OUT OF FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH FROM WEST TEXAS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX AND TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S NORTHERN PORTIONS TO LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FIRST SHORT WAVE TO MOVE TO THE EAST COAST...WHILE NEXT ONE ENTERS SOUTHWEST US. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE. LOW MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED OVER THE AREA...SO EXPECT SUNNY SKIES. BELIEVE MODELS A LITTLE QUICK IN RETURN FLOW. THEREFORE...A LITTLE COOLER IN TEMPS THAN MOS FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST US AS IT GETS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW. FIRST IN A SERIES OF VORT MAXS EJECTING OUT FRONT THE LOW WILL TRY TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL NOT MENTION POPS. EXTENDED...WED THRU FRI...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST US EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRI. SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. BUT BEST DYNAMICS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. 7-RUA .LCH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT. LA...SCA GMZ450-455-470-475. TX...GMZ450-470. .PRELIMS... BPT 42/70/54/72 0000 LCH 41/70/51/72 0000 LFT 43/70/49/72 0000 AEX 39/68/47/72 0000 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1025 PM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 THE LATEST APX AND REGIONAL RADAR PLOT SHOWS THE LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION... THAT ONCE AFFECTED THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING... HAS NOW GREATLY DIMINISHED BOTH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT GENERATED THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING HAS NOW MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE EVENING FORCING WAS IN RESPONSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVING OVER EAST UPPER AND A VORT LOBE MOVING INTO WESTERN LOWER. FORCING OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM A SECOND VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THE PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE DTX AND GRR RADARS. MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE MAINLY DRIZZLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BECOME LIMITED AND WIND SHEAR BELOW 850 MB CONTINUES. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WARMING WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 850 MB OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER WILL MENTION SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT AS CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW FREEZING. .APX...NONE. SWR mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 735 PM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 THE LATEST APX 88D SHOWS AN AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. RECENT SPOTTER REPORTS SHOW THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE MAINLY RAIN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES LAKESHORES AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS AROUND MANISTEE...TRAVERSE CITY...GLADWIN AND TAWAS. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IT WAS MAINLY A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WOULD INCLUDE KALKASKA...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA AND GRAYLING. THE 21Z RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MATCH WELL WITH THE RECENT SPOTTERS REPORTS. LOW LEVEL TEMP/DEW PT PROFILES THROUGH 850 MB FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOWS...SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS CROSSING THE 0 DEGREE THRESHOLD THROUGH 04Z BEFORE THE ENTIRE SOUNDING THROUGH 850 MB WARMS TO WELL ABOVE FREEZING. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOW THE SATURATED TEMP/DEW PT PROFILE THROUGH 850 MB NEAR THE 0C THRESHOLD...WARMING ABOVE FREEZING OCCASIONALLY AROUND 850 MB THROUGH 06Z. THIS WILL HELP GENERATE PERIODS OF SLEET THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE UPDATED ZONES WILL REFLECT MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX FOR HIGHER LOCATIONS AND RAIN SNOW MIX FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. .APX...NONE. SWR mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 155 PM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 RAIN HAS NOW MADE IT TO ALL BUT NORTHERN HURON COUNTY...AND IT WILL BE THERE SHORTLY. RUC...ETA...AND NGM ALL POINTING TO HIGHER QPFS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA FOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT STRONGER PRESSURE ADVECTION PATTERN ANTICIPATED THERE. KDTX 88D CERTAINLY LENDS CREDENCE TO THIS SCENARIO AS BEST RETURNS NOW FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN CWA. JUST LIGHT RAIN/DZ OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CWA NOW. HOWEVER...HEAVIER RAIN POISED TO ENTER CWA FROM THE SOUTH. SO FOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE WITH /RAIN/ WORDING FOR SOUTH AND NOW NORTH. WILL ALSO TWEAK TEMPERATURES TO /STEADY NEAR 40/ SOUTH AND /STEADY 35 TO 40/ NORTH. THE LATTER ALLOWS FOR CHILLIER LAKE SHORE TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE HURON IN EASTERLY FLOW. .DTX...NONE. OKEEFE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1201 PM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 RAIN SHIELD HAS MADE A MORE PRONOUNCED PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MI THIS MORNING THAN INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER...BUT WAIT OUR CHANCE WILL BE COMING SOON. RUC INDICATES BETTER THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THEN BY 21Z SHOWS GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS ENTIRE LENGTH OF CWA. RAIN COVERS JUST ABOUT ENTIRE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES INCLUDING DTW AND ARB. SHOULD BE REACHING PTK...OZW...MTC...AND PHN SHORTLY. SO FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE...WILL CALL FOR RAIN SOUTH...AND RAIN DEVELOPING NORTH. EXPECT RAIN TO BE UBIQUITOUS ACROSS CWA BY 4 PM...AND WILL LIKELY UPDATE NORTHERN ZONES ONE LAST TIME THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA IN FORECAST HIGH RANGE NOW. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH MORE WITH RAIN BEGINNING. WILL TWEAK AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO READ /STEADY/ TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WILL ALSO REFRESH WIND WORDING. .DTX...NONE. OKEEFE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1155 AM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 COMPOSITE OF AREA RADARS SHOWS A LARGE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL/IN/SOUTHWEST LOWER ADVANCING NORTHWARD...DRIVEN BY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FORCING FROM RRQ OF 100+ SPEED MAX LIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. TREND IN APX RAOBS HAS BEEN A GRADUAL SATURATING OF THE MID LEVELS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE WEDGE OF DRY AIR SHRINKING BY ABOUT 100MB/12H. ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LAYER IS DECREASING...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ON 12Z RAOB STILL APPROACHING 40C AT 850MB WITH THE MOIST LAYER NOW DOWN TO 800MB. DTX RAOB SHOWS BETTER LAYER AVERAGE RH ADVECTING NORTH...SO JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE PRECIPITATION ROLLS INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH RRQ JET FORCING SPREADING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTENROON. MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE. CURRENT EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING A MKG-GRR-LAN LINE AND ADVANCING NORTH...BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED WITH INCREASE IN UPWARD FORCING TO SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD. WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER THIS MORNING PER U/A ANALYSES... WITH LATEST RUC AND MESOETA PROGS PUSHING 925/850MB TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER BY 21Z. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH WAA WILL BE OFFSET BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SUPPLY LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER FACTOR IS SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MID CLOUD HAS BEEN THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME INSOLATION THIS MORNING...WHICH IS PUSHING TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER TOWARD 40 DEGREES. MODEL PROGGED TEMPERATURES ASIDE...THIS WOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER TO MELT ANY INITIAL PRECIPITATION...BEFORE COOLING PUSHES TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S AND ALLOWS FOR MORE OF A MIX OR A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW (MOST LIKELY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS). FOR THE UPDATE...KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER BUT WORDED IT AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...BUT WILL FORECAST MORE OF A RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW. ADDED POSSIBLITY OF SOME SLEET TO PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER WITH MODEL SOUNDING PROGGING NICE ISOTHERMAL LAYER HOVERING NEAR FREEZING BETWEEN 900-800MB. UPDATED ARBZFPAPX ALREADY ISSUED. .APX...NONE. JPB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 800 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2000 MAIN FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS WITH PCPN TRENDS. CURRENT 11-3.9 IR IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS BLANKETING MOST OF CWA. -SN BREAKING OUT ACRS SE MN PER 88D. THIS PCPN IS OCCURING IN AN AREA OF WEAK MID LEVEL WAA RESULTING FROM SHEARED S/W TROF OVR IA. IN ADDITION...PROFILERS AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATE A SMALL JET STREAK OVR ERN IA...WITH LEFT EXIT REGION POSITIONED ACRS SE MN. CURRENT FCST SEEMS TO HANDLE PCPN TRENDS WELL. 18Z ETA/21Z RUC SHOW JET SUPPORT DECREASING WITH TIME. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL WAA WORKS NWD WITH TIME. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY MINOR PCPN EVENT. OTRW...LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALREADY IN PLACE...AND WILL ONLY TWEAK TEMPS SLIGHTLY. .MSP...NONE. DAVIS mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 935 PM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 SFC RDG SITUATED FM ME CST THRU CT INTO NJ AT 01Z. LOW PRES EXISTS ACRS WRN TN WHILE SHARP MID-UPR LVL TROF LIES ACRS MO. MULTIPLE JET SEGMENTS IMBD IN FLOW ALF...WITH RUC DEPICTING SOME INCR IN UPR LVL DIV ACRS SPCLY WRN DIST TWD 12Z. DENSER CI HAS ADVANCED ACRS SWRN 3/5 OF PA DURG LAST 4-5HRS AND BELIEVE TREND SHOULD CONT. BKN CI SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST ZONES BY MRNG AND KPIT AREA 00Z SOUNDING HINTS AT LOW-MID LYR MSTR ADVECTING NBND. DO NOT THINK MHKVLY SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THAT...HOWEVER INCLINED TO BRK SCHOHARIE CO AND CTSKLS FOR PSBL AC/HIR SC CIGS BY MRNG. PTNS OF UPR HDSVLY AND SCHOHARIE VLY ALREADY BLO FRZG ATTM. SHLW AREA OF MOIST AIR NR INVRSN BASED ARND 12 HND FT AT KCHH WITH SOME ELEV IN SFC DWPNTS SE OF RDG AXIS WITH ONSHR PRES GRADS FM NRN NEW ENG CST. MODELS ALL SEEM IN AGREEMENT ON MOVG SFC RDG AXIS INLD 60-80 MI BY 12Z. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DCR TEMP DROP IN CT SXNS BY SEVERAL DEG...BUT COULD COUNTERACT REDUCTION IN PRES GRADS. WL CHG A COUPLE 2ND PD FAIRS TO PTLY CLDY...OTRW NO CHGS AFT FIRST PD. MCKINLEY/GJM .ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE. ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TEXT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1002 AM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 VIS IMG SHOWING STATUS CLOUDS RETREATING AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITH SOME CUMULUS BUILD UP OVER NC INLAND COUNTIES. CIRRUS AND ALTO CUMULUS CLOUDS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM CONVECTION TO SOUTHWEST. MORNING RUC PICKED UP ON THE GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL RELATIVITY HUMIDITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 3 PM. FOR AFTERNOON TIME FRAME IN FORECAST I DO NOT SEE ANY NEED TO CHANGE FROM CURRENT MOSTLY CLOUDY. A PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST MAY SUIT SELECT COUNTIES. LAMP GUID SUGGEST COOLER TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS CWFA AND WILL COMPARE WITH 15Z OBS BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISION. NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS WEDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP. CWF: NO CHANGES PLANNED. SCA TO CONTINUE. .ILM...SCA SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC. JFP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 905 PM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 WV LOOP SUGGESTING UPR LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SLOLY LIFTS OUT OF LWR MS RVR VLY. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC WITH MSAS SFC PRES SHOWING SFC LOW NR MEM VCNTY WITH WRMFNT DRAPED ACRS CNTRL/SRN GA. WKNG SQUALL LN IN ERN AL STEADILY PUSHING EWRD. SHLW SFC WDG OVR UPSTATE SLOLY GIVING WAY TO APPROACHING STM SYSTEM. RUC STILL INDICATING FAIRLY STABLE AMS OVR CWA ATTM...BUT BCMG MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY 09Z ACRS CSRA. TEMPS STILL HOLDING IN UPR 50S TO LWR 60S MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN IS WHEN WL WDG FINALLY BREAK DURING THE OVRNITE HRS...AND WHEN WRMFNT BEGINS TO PUSH NWRD INTO CWA. COLD POOL ALF WL ALSO APPROACH DURING THE PREDAWN HRS. FOR NOW...ONGOING FCST PKG LUKS IN REASONABLE SHAPE...BUT WL MAKE SOME WORDING CHANGES. STILL APPEARS THAT TEMPS WL SLOLY RISE DURING THE PREDAWN SO ANY CHANGES TO TEMP FCST WL BE MINOR. .CAE...NONE. BC sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1011 AM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 HI PRESS RIDGE TO HANG TUFF ACRS NEW ENG THRU 12Z MON...AS A CUTOFF AREA OF LOW PRESS MEANDERS ACRS THE MS AND OH RIVER VLYS. AS THIS SYS BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH TIME...THE UPR RIDGE THAT/S OVER THE FA WILL BECOME STRONGER INTO TONITE. WK H85 WAA ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...BEST ADVECTION TO OCCUR TO THE WEST IN CANADA THOUGH. 12Z RUC SHOWS WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ST LAW VLY (WHERE THE WINDS ARE STILL OUT OF THE NE...WHILE CWGH AND KGTB ARE SCREAMING OUT OF THE SOUTH). HI TEMPS ONLY SHOWN TO BE IN THE M20S-L30S...WHICH LOOKS COOL (JUST LIKE THEY DID YESTERDAY) GIVEN THAT SOME LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY INTO THE 30S. T1MAX TEMPS ARE 40-45 FOR TODAY. LOW LVLS WILL BE DRY TODAY...BUT BEST CHC FOR ANY MID LVL CLOUDINESS LATER TODAY AND TONITE WILL BE IN THE ST LAW VLY AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE ADIRONDACKS. RUC KEEPS ANY PCPN CONFINED TO THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY. BUFCAN SHOWS ANY PCPN THAT/S MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LKS REGION IS DRYING UP ATTM. GOES-8 SAT PIX SHOW MOST OF THE CLDS/MOISTURE THAT/S MOVING NORTH ACRS THE OH VLY WILL BE SAFELY MOVING UP TO OUR WEST INTO CANADA TODAY. HAVE RE-GROUPED RUT CTY WITH THE CHAMP VLY ZONES AND WINDSOR CTY WITH NE/NC VT BASED ON CURRENT TEMP/WIND TRENDS. BUMPED TODAY/S HI TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS UP A LIL IN A FEW ZONES BASED ON CURRENT OBS TRENDS AS WELL. WORK ZONES GONE. FINAL ZFP AFTER QUICK LOOK AT LATEST LAMP DATA. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 900 PM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOWING LGT RAIN ONLY MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS EVE AGAINST WEDGE OF DRY AIR ALONG/EAST OF THE MTNS. WITH AXIS OF BEST UVV AND DEEPEST RH JUST ENTERING GA ATTM WOULD EXPECT ONLY A GRDL EASTWARD DVLPMENT OF -RA BY ISENT LIFT OVERNGT...ESPCLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS ALSO SUPPORTED BY EVE SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW ONLY LOW LVL MOISTURE ATTM WHICH SUGGESTS MAJ OF PRECIP OVER THE WEST WILL BE GNRLY UPSLOPISH VERY -RA OR -DZ UNTIL LATE. LATEST RUC/MESO-ETA GNRLY CLOSE WITH NW-SE ORIENTED RH AXIS REACHING WRN ZONES 08-12Z THEN EAST...FINALLY CROSSING THE VA PIEDMONT MON AFTN. THUS MAY TRY AND STAGGER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST OVRNGT WITH CAT POPS NRV WEST...BECMG LKLY ROA VLY SOUTHWARD AND ONLY CHCY NERN CTYS. ALSO LKLY HAVING SOME LGT FRZG RAIN NRN NC MTNS WITH BOONE/WEST JEFFERSON NEAR 32 SO MAY MENTION IN ZFP FOR COLDER VALLEYS EARLY...BUT DONT EXPECT MANY PRBLMS WITH READINGS LKLY TO RISE LATE AS WAA ALOFT INCREASES. LKLY NEED TO BOOST WINDS A BIT FAR SW GIVEN SFC-GEOS FLOW AT 50 KTS BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT MIXING DOWN ENOUGH GRAD EXCEPT HIER PEAKS TO GO TO ADVSRY CRIT WITH COLD AIR STUCK IN PLACE ATTM. OTRW LOOKS LIKE INCRSG 85H SELY FLOW IN COMBO WITH 5H NEG TILT TO ENHANCE RAIN CVRG MON UNLESS DVLPG SE CSTL WAVE CAN CLIP OFF DEEP RH FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPS SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE SO PLAN TO ADJUST SE ZONES UP A CAT OR TWO AND RANGE MORE FOR VLYS NW NC OTRW FEW ADTNL CHANGES. .RNK VA...NONE. WV...NONE. NC...NONE. JH va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 240 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2000 ...SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THROUGH MISSOURI WITH A 30 KNOT LLJ ON THE BACKSIDE FROM IOWA INTO TEXAS. A WEAK VORT MAX IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA ENHANCING THE UVVS AND CREATING A NARROW BAND OF SN/+SN AROUND KCID. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS IN ARKANSAS AND ABOUT TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM HAS COME ONSHORE IN THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH 12Z UPPER AIR SHOWING 370 DEKAMETER FALLS AT SPOKANE. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM IS MOVING UP THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS WITH 3- 4 MORESYSTEMS BACK ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN ASIA. IR SHOWS CLOUD TOPS COOLED THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA WITH VISIBLE SHOWING CONVECTIVE TOPS EMBEDDED IN THE ST/SC. REGIONAL RADARS CONFIRM SATELLITE INDICATIONS OF TWO DEFORMATION ZONES...ONE OVER EASTERN IOWA AND THE OTHER A LITTLE WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR. DUAL DRY SLOTS MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS SHUTTING OFF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WHILE ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA ARE NORTHBOUND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A LOW SOUTHWEST OF KSPI WITH ANOTHER NEAR KCGI. A WARM FRONT RAN FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA WITH TROFS RUNNING UP THROUGH NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND ANOTHER THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSOURI TOWARD KLWD. MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 40 DEW POINTS WELL INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE MANY...CLOUDS/FOG/PRECIP...AND TEMPS. 12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED OK WITH THE AVN/ETA VERIFYING BETTER AT 18Z THAN THE NGM. CURRENT RUC RUNS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE AVN/ETA SO WILL FOLLOW ACCORDINGLY. AVN/ETA PUSH THE CURRENT VORT MAX OVER IOWA INTO WISCONSIN. QG FORCING EVENTUALLY BECOMES DOWNWARD HELPING TO TRAP MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ARKANSAS SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THROUGH ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND INCREASING UPWARD MOTION IN THE QG FIELDS. AVN/ETA SHOW THE UPPER SYSTEM BECOMING A BIT MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO WRAP AROUND. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW A STRONG INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH COOL GROUND AND EVENTUAL WAA TAKING PLACE WILL MAKE IT IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. DON/T BELIEVE FOG WILL BE DENSE ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY TONIGHT BUT MONDAY NIGHT IS ANOTHER STORY. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE FOR TONIGHT ALONG WITH MENTIONING AREAS OF FOG. FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE -RA/-SN ONGOING WILL TAPER IT OFF TO DRIZZLE. FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF - SHRA/-RALATER TONIGHT WHICH MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FOG REDEVELOPING WITH A VENGENCE MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND FOG BREAK UP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY DUE TO STRONGER MARCH SUNSHINE AND PAC NORTHWEST SYSTEM KICKING OUT MID MISSISSIPPI SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND REASONABLY NICE BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WISE...GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO WARM FOR MAXES THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY WITH AT MOST A 5- 8 DEGREE DIURNAL JUMP MONDAY. AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES TUESDAY WITH MORE OF A WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. ...EXTENDED... QUESTIONS HERE IS WHAT TO BELIEVE. MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWING THIS UP FROM RUN TO RUN. PER AVN EXTENSION NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY IS THE QUESTION MARK DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU WISH TO BELIEVE. PER MRF AND AVN EXTENSION SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WHILE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT MAY BE DRY. FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCE FOR SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...ILX...AND STL. .DVN...NONE. NC il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 836 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2000 ONLY REAL CHG FOR EVEN UPDATE WAS TO ADD MENTION OF DRZL OR FRZG DRZL TO FCST TNGT. A FEW SFC OBS ALREADY RPTG SOME AND RADAR IN VCP 31 HINTING AT IT AS WELL NR SITE. 02Z SFC ANLYS PLACES LOW JUST N OF KPAH WITH WRM OR OCCLUDED FNT THRU SRN CHI SUBURBS. 50+F DWPNTS INTO ERN IL AND MUCH OF IN. 21Z RUC DRAWS THIS MSTR INTO ERN FA WITH WEAK LIFT ALG 285K SFC THRU 09Z SO SO XPC THIS TO CONT. A FEW SITES HOVERING NR THE FRZG MARK ALREADY SO MENTIONED LGT FRZG DRZL AFT MIDN. DO NOT XPC MUCH OF AN EVENT HWVR AND WL DOWNPLAY IN SHRT TERM FCSTS. NO OTHER SGFNT CHGS. .DSM...NONE SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 430 AM EST MON MAR 20 2000 MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE TIMING AND TYPE OF PCPN AT ONSET TODAY ALONG WITH PCPN TRENDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WV IMAGERY INDICATED MID/UPR LVL SYSTEM OVER MID MS VALLEY TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT WITH SIGNIFICANT VORT CENTER LOCATED NEAR PAH. 150 KNOT JET WAS HELPING TO DIG TROF OVER WEST. COMPOSITE RADARS AND SFC OBS INDICATED BROAD AREA OF RAIN FROM OHIO VALLEY AND SRN LAKES HAD MOVED NORTH TO A LINE FROM NEAR MTW TO HTL AT 09Z. EXPANSION OF PCPN TO THE NORTH WAS SUPPORTED BY STRONG SSE MOISTURE FLOW FROM GULF WITH 290-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING UPR LVL DIV AS SYSTEM BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. IR LOOP SHOWING COOLING TOPS OVER WRN LAKES WITH BEST UPR LVL DIV OVER WRN LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF JET FROM ERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. AT THE SFC...LO OVER SE IL SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH IN LINE WITH PRES FALL PATTERN. WHILE LLVL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH FOR LOW STRATUS. LITTLE IN WAY OF -DZ OR -FZDZ REPORTED AHEAD OF MAIN PCPN AREA. MDLS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO SYSTEM AFFECTING UPR MI INTO TUESDAY WITH QPF PATTERN AND PCPN TIMING. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ETA FOR DETAILS WITH LLVL MOISTURE AND TEMPS. TODAY...UPR LVL DIV STRENGTHENS OVER UPR MI WITH ONTARIO-QUEBEC JET AND INCREASING 700-300 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED LIFT OR COUPLING FROM LFQ OF JET MOVING INTO OH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND 06Z RUC...SIMILAR TO 00Z ETA...SUGGEST PCPN WL MOVE TOWARD NNW INTO UPR MI REACHING SE PORTION BTWN 12Z-15Z AND CNTRL BTWN 15Z-18Z AND WEST AFT 18Z. WITH TEMPS OVER SE ALREADY ABV FREEZING DELAYED PCPN ONSET AND DIURNAL WARMING THREAT FOR -FZDZ/-FZRA HAD FADED. TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPR LVL SUPPORT LIFTS GRADUALLY TO THE NE. EXPECT TREND MORE TOWARD DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE DIMINISHES AOA 700 MB AND -12C TO -15C ISOTHERMS. GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH LITTLE IN WAY OF DRY ADVECTION FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF BEST LIFT...LEAVING ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER UPR MI. PRESENCE OF WEAK TROF AXIS AND LLVL CONVERGENCE THROUGH CNTRL UPR MI SHOULD KEEP THREAT FOR DRIZZLE GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FCST 900-850 RH SUGGESTS CLOUDS WL PERSIST ENOUGH TO LIMIT TEMPS AOB COOLER FWC VALUES. JET PUSHING ACRS ALBERTA/SASK SHOULD WL RE-ESTABLISH NRN STREAM OVER AREA TUESDAY. WL LEAVE OUT PCPN MENTION TUESDAY NIGHT SIGNIFICANT LIFT FROM LEAD NRN STREAM SHRTWV REMAINING TO THE NORTH. .MQT...NONE. JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 445 AM EST MON MAR 20 2000 COMPLEX AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL GROW MORE COMPLICATED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IMPRESSIVE CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT TO THE EAST UP THE OH VALLEY TODAY AS AXIS OF NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS...UNTIL A MID/UPPER HIGH CLOSES OFF ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL BLOCK THE EXIT OF THE CLOSED LOW AND FORCE IT TO MEANDER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL MOST LIKELY CAUSE TROUBLE FOR TUESDAY BY KEEPING A GRADIENT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING NEARBY. **FOR THE SHORT TERM...KGSP RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG WINDS OF 50 KNOTS OR BETTER IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET IN THE AREA OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP...WHICH WAS MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA AT 0930Z. THE RUC SHOWS WINDS SUBSIDING QUICKLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN PRECIP BAND. TIMING THE MOVEMENT OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP PUTS IT THROUGH AVL/GSP/GRD AROUND 12Z OR SO. WILL KEEP THE WIND WARNING/ADVISORY GOING OVER THE SC MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL/SRN NC MOUNTAINS UNTIL 12Z...AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 15Z. ALTHO THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP IS ALREADY MOVING IN ACROSS THE AREA AT 09Z...PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS PACKAGE FOR SC MTNS/SRN NC MTNS/SRN NC FOOTHILLS.** THE SCENARIO I ENVISIONED YESTERDAY STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE FOR TODAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE FORCING FOR THE PRECIP BAND SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF PRECIP TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN PART. WILL SPLIT THE ZONES ACCORDING TO THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN PRECIP BAND AND KEEP CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCE E AND CHANCE W. AFTER THE MAIN PRECIP BAND MOVES PAST...A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL REMAIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS OVER AL MOVING INTO WRN GA. EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE MORNING OVER NE GA/SC PIEDMONT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS A MID LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD DURING MIDDAY. THE ETA SHOWS SBCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 18Z WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHEAR. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS...OF COURSE...WE STILL HAVE THIS WEDGED-IN AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WEDGE IS BEING SCOURED OUT ACROSS UPSTATE SC. THE RUC SHOWS A TRIPLE-POINT SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. THUS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE GENERALLY S OF I-85. SPC HAS A SLGT RISK ALONG THE SE FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. PLAN ON ADDRESSING THIS POTENTIAL IN A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW MAKES THE FORECAST FOR TONITE AND TUESDAY PROBLEMATIC. THE NGM KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER SW ALONG THE SC COAST WHICH WRAPS MORE PRECIP BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONITE AND TUESDAY. THE AVN IS A BIT FARTHER N THAN THE ETA BUT HAS SOME PRECIP WRAPPING BACK OVER THE NRN FOOTHILLS/NW PIEDMONT. AM INCLINED TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ETA/AVN POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THINK IT WOULD BE BEST TO KEEP A PRECIP CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN FRINGE THRU THE PERIOD SIMILAR TO THE AVN PRECIP FIELD. DOWNSLOPE E OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIP AWAY FROM UPSTATE SC/NE GA. THE END RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT NE/SW GRADIENT IN CLOUDS/PRECIP/TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. ...PRELIM NUMBERS... AVL 53/39/59 632 CLT 56/44/62 943 GSP 59/43/66 821 .GSP...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 12Z MONDAY FOR PORTION OF NC CENTRAL/SRN MOUNTAINS...NCZ048-052-053-063>065. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 15Z MONDAY FOR NC NRN MOUNTAINS NCZ033-049-050. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z MONDAY SC MTN ZONES. FLASH FLOOD WATCH MONDAY MORNING NCZ063>067-SCZ001>003. MOORE sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 852 PM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS...JUST ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. GETTING MORE TREE DOWN REPORTS ACROSS THE VALLEY. GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER ENTIRE AREA AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. RUC AND ETA SHOWING GOOD GRADIENT CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED THIS EVENING .MRX... NC...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT FOR CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES TN...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT FOR FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS... AND WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. VA...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR LEE...WISE...SCOTT...RUSSELL...AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. GH tn TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 915 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2000 LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM BUT BASED ON LOOK AT NGM AND RUC AT BEST IT WILL ENTER EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WINDS HAVE CURRENTLY SHIFTED TO SOUTHEAST SO WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS DIRECTION RATHER THAN THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. GARCIA tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 302 AM CST MON MAR 20 2000 RADAR DATA INDICATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS MOVING NORTHWEST. MSAS DATA/SUBTRACTION IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...MINNESOTA...AND AREAS SOUTH. THIS INTRUDES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING COMPLEX UPPER SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES. 20/00Z MODELS DEPICT ONLY ONE LARGE VORT CENTER. THIS COULD EITHER BE MODEL INITIALIZATION OR A FUNCTION OF THE VIEWABLE GRID RESOLUTION. NEVER THE LESS...06Z RUC DOING BETTER IN RESOLVING THE DISTURBANCES ONCE AGAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN WITH THE MODEL FORECASTS THIS PACKAGE. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHAT CONTINUED AFFECT THIS SYSTEM HAS ON THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALING THE AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA VARYING GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 20 DEGREES OR MORE ACROSS THE WEST...ZERO ACROSS THE EAST. THESE DIFFERENCES SEPARATED BY A LOW AND MID LAYER TROUGH. THEREFORE...AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE NORTHWARD TODAY...DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD EASILY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. ACROSS THE WEST...BELIEVE ONLY CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM TODAY. WILL FORECAST HIGHS TODAY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE PERSISTENCE...MOS TO WARM. SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES NORTH TODAY. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY BRING TO A END THE RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH WIDESPREAD FOG...DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE PERSISTENCE TONIGHT AS WELL. STILL NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO CLEAR OUT CLOUDS TUESDAY. NEGLIGIBLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL STRUCTURE ON TUESDAY SUGGESTS MOS HIGHS IN THE 50S FROM SOLAR RADIATION. WITH CLOUDS ABOUND...THIS SEEMS MUCH TO WARM...WILL CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY. COORDINATED WITH MKX/DVN. .LSE...NONE. KRC wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 915 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2000 MAIN FCST CHANGE WITH EMPHASIZING FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THEN BRING RAIN BACK INTO SE TOWARD MORNING...AS NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH WEAKENING SFC LOW. NEW ETA APPEARS MUCH BETTER THAN 18Z RUN WITH PRECIP DISTRIBUTION. TEMP STRUCTURE SHOULD NOW SUPPORT RAIN IN THE NW PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED SLOW WARMING. CONTIMPLATED ADVSRYS FOR FOG FAR SE...BUT GRADIANT IS A BIT STRONG. .MKX...NONE. 0...0...0...0 $$ HENTZ wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 400 AM PST MON MAR 20 2000 LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 140 KT NWLY JET MAX AT 350 MB OVER FCST AREA. MEANWHILE SAC PROFILER SHOWING INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS...OVER 50 KT AT 1500 FT...WITH MANY SURFACE OBS READING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KT OR BETTER. SURFACE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED IN NORTHERN ZONES AS MOST PRESSURE RISES ARE NOW CENTERED EAST OF CWA IN GREAT BASIN AS POLAR AIR IS DRIVEN SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND TODAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVEN STRONGEST GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL- WESTERN ZONES HAVING TO BATTLE RADIATIVE INVERSION. GRADIENT OBVIOUSLY WINNING OUT TONIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLY ALIGNED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INVERSION TONIGHT AND ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. MODELS AGREE ON REPEAT OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AZ/NM CLOSED LOW RETROGRADES TO LOCATION OVER YUMA AZ SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. THIS RETROGRESSION SOLUTION ALSO PUSHES BACK TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES TO THUNRSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS COMBO OF WEST-EAST RIDGE AXIS AND AZ LOW PROVIDES NICE BLOCKING PATTERN TO DEFLECT THURSDAY SHORTWAVE INTO OREGON. SJC .STO...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE COUNTY...THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY...THE DELTA...AND THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. BLU NN 039/032 051/038 060 63000 RBL NN 063/042 071/038 079 63000 SAC NN 065/042 070/046 076 63000 ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 930 AM EST MON MAR 20 2000 SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AREA WEDGED IN-BETWEEN OCEAN GENERATED STRATUS CLDS TO THE SOUTH AND AC/CI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TO THE NORTH. CLOUDS FROM THE CANADIAN SYSTEM ARE SPILLING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ALLOWING SOME CLDS OVER THE CWA. EXPECT STRATUS DECK WHICH IS CLIPPING THE DOWNEAST COAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...AND THEN RETURN THIS EVE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLDS DIMMING THE SUN FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. THUS THE PREVIOUS P/S FCST LOOKS GOOD. PREVIOUS TEMPS IN THE BALL-PARK...MAY NEED TO SHAVE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF TEMPS DOWNEAST. WILL LOOK AT 10 AM TEMPS BEFORE DECIDING. COASTAL WATERS: PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SEAS IN EXCESS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT (PER RUC WINDS) SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. .CAR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LULOFS me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 1005 AM EST MON MAR 20 2000 RAFL SPREADING NWD TWD CWFA...AND WL ARRIVE IN SWRN CNTIES BY NOON...ABT ON TIME. 06Z AND 12Z ETA CONTG TREND OF HVY PCPN CORE MVG ALNG BLURDG TNGT/TMRW. EACH RUN ADDS A CPL HNDTHS TO THE QPF. RUC A PINCH LESS AGRESSIVE IN AMTS...BUT ITS ONSET TIMING LOOKS GOOD. WL TWEAK WRDG FOR PCPN. DONT SEE TEMPS RISING TOO MUCH ABV LWR 40S SWRN HLF OF AREA GIVEN PCPN AND CRRNT DEWPTS AOB 40. AM CONCERNED ABT FLOOD POTL WRN CWA. WL REISSUE ESF...AND WL BEEF UP WORDING...STRESSING 6 HR AMTS GRTR THAN HLF INCH AND LOCTN IN VLLYS OF HILLY TRRN. THIS SUBJ WL BE REVISITED W/ AFTN PKG. .LWX...NONE. HTS md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1015 AM CST MON MAR 20 2000 UPDATED ZONES FOR WINDS...WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND POPS. 88D SHOWING A FEW AREAS OF -SN WESTERN 1/2 OF CWA...MOVING NE WITH MEAN UPPER FLOW. INVERTED SFC TROUGH ORIENTED N-S THROUGH CNTL SD. TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH 35-40 FAR W AND SW CWA...AND 30-35 N CNTL CWA. A FEW SMALL AREAS OF INCREASED INTENSITY SEEN ON 88D...BUT WITH MARGINAL TEMPS AND GENERALLY QUICK MOVT...NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. DECREASED WINDS FAR EAST AS SFC PRSR GRADIENT HAS DECREASED THERE. RUC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE FAR EAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED DECREASING CLOUDINESS BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. .ABR...NONE. LORENS sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 905 AM MST MON MAR 20 2000 DISCUSSION... WILL BE UPDATING PACKAGE MIDDAY TO EXTEND WIND ADVISORY INTO EVENING IF NOTHING ELSE. HOWEVER RUC-2 INDICATES 50KT WINDS AT 800 MB OVER SW NM SO AM DEBATING ABOUT WIND WARNING FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SW NM. MUCH MAY DEPEND ON WHETHER ANY HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER SW TO ENHANCE SURFACE WIND - RIGHT NOW AM LEANING AGAINST THIS. OTHERWISE MORNING PACKAGE OK. .ELP...NONE 02 N tx SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 325 PM MST MON MAR 20 2000 WILL KEEP THIS RELATIVELY SHORT AS QUITE BUSY WITH NUMEROUS HIGHLIGHTS AND DEVELOPING WEATHER. MAIN CONCERN IS OF COURSE POTENTIAL SNOW STORM ON THIS FIRST DAY OF SPRING. CWFA CURRENTLY SEEING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME AREAS OF SNOW...FOR EXAMPLE THE WOLF CREEK PASS AREA HAS SEEN 7 INCHES OF SNOW FROM 7 AM MST. LATEST ETA HAS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AT 00Z TUESDAY AND ETA MOVES THIS UPPER LOW INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ETA PROGS MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO TONIGHT WHILE 700 LOW IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT. ETA/MM5 GENERATES SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER LARGE AREAS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SNOW DEVELOPING IN EARNEST AROUND TO A FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. 21Z RUC NOT SO GENEROUS WITH SNOW AMOUNTS...HOWEVER DOES INDICATE SNOW INCREASING BY 09Z TUESDAY. ETA/MM5 INDICATES 700 MB WINDS AND MOISTURE PROFILE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TONIGHT OVER LARGE SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. WILL ISSUE NUMEROUS HIGHLIGHTS...CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION... SEE BELOW. EXTENDED...ETA/AVN GENERALLY SUPPORTS UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THURSDAY WITH AVN INDICATING POTENTIAL HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA PROJECTED TO MOVE TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY 12Z THURSDAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FAR SOUTHEAST CLOSELY NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL KEEP CWFA GENERALLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS REGION BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. .PUB...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR ZONES 60/61/65/66/67/68/70/71/72/74 AND 75. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR ZONES 58/62/63/64/73/76 AND 77. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1017 AM CST MON MAR 20 2000 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH INVERSION BETWEEN 925 AND 850 MB. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF US. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS WITH DEFORMATION ZONE IS JUST TO THE EAST OF EAU WITH SOME DRIZZLE OCCURRING IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WILL KEEP THIS TREND GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON AS STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOBBLES AROUND NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM STC TO MAN BUT THIS HAS QUICKLY FILLED BACK IN. 12Z ETA/NGM IN AGREEMENT ON KEEPING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY WHILE 15Z RUC IS TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT IN WESTERN MN. KABR SOUNDING INDICATES LESS DEPTH TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT THE DAKOTAS ARE ALSO COVERED WITH PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SO DON'T THINK TOO MUCH DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AND KEEP IT MAINLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON LOOK GOOD WITH AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW. .MSP...NONE. HILTBRAND mn