EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 935 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JACKSONVILLE TO BUOY 41010 AND IS MOVING SOUTHWEST. KJAX RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY ...MOVING ONSHORE FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE TO JACKSONVILLE. EXPECT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. 12Z CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS A CAPING INVERSION AROUND 850 MB WITH PWATS AT 1.02 INCHES...SO SHOWERS SHOULD BE LOW TOP THIS AFTERNOON. 13Z RUC MODEL INDICATES NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. MARINE...LATEST 9 AM 41009 BUOY SHOWS ENE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 3.5 FEET. CWF HANDLES INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WELL...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED. .MLB...NONE. AVIATION/FIRE WX...SPRATT PUBLIC/MARINE...BORZILLERI fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 230 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2000 COMPLICATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVING OVR CNTRL U.S. ATM. H5 LOW IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVR CNTRL KS/NE AS POTENT S/W DROPS S THRU RCKYS INTO BASE OF TROF OVR NRN NM. BAND OF SN THAT MVD THRU ERN IA WRN IL THIS MRNG HAS FALLEN APART E OF RGN WITH PATCHY -SN N AND -RA S RMNG. -SN FALLING IN ILL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZN OVR SERN MN NW IA WITH MAIN -RN MIX IN MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF DEF ZONE OVR ERN NE/NE KS. AT THE SFC RDGNG ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES OVR NERN U.S. EXTENDS W INTO NRN IL/NE IA. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THIS MRNGS RUNS TRENDING TOWARD YESTERDAYS SLOWER/STRONGER AVN SOLN. AVN STILL THE ODD MODEL OUT TDA KEEPING THE SYSTEM FURTHER N THAN NGM/ETA ESPCLY AFT 24HRS. BY 18Z TDA AVN SEEMED TO BE DOING A BETTER JOB HANDLING THE ENERGY MVNG THRU NRN NM AND IS SUPPORTED BY WATER VARPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SOLN. ETA/NGM ARE SLOER MVNG THIS ENERGY INTO TROF. BASED ON THIS WILL FAVOR THE AVN SOLN FOR THIS FCST. ALL MODELS SHOW DEF ZONE SHIFTING SE AND SETTING UP FROM ERN KS THRU NW MO ERN IA/NRN IL BY 12Z SUN. SHLD SEE MAINLY SN WITH THIS FEATURE TNGT OVR WRN AND NRN SCTNS OF CWA AND COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES SOME AREAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW AT H850 AHD OF DVLPNG SYS WILL PULL WARM AIR N THRU MS VALLEY TNGT. SO RST OF CWA SHLD SEE RN OR -SN CHNG TO -RN. BEST SHOT OF PCPN WILL COME SUNDAY MRNG AS UPR LOW LIFTS NE INTO CENTRL MO BRINGING IMPRSV VV BULLSEYE INTO CNTRL IL. UPR LOW THEN MVS THUR SRN IL INTO IN BY MON AFTN DECREASING THE THREAT OF RN OVR WRN SCTNS OF CWA BUT ERN SCTNS WILL SEE AN EXTENDED PD OF -RN. SHLD BE ABLE TO END PCPN OVR E BY TUE MRNG AS UPR RDG BLDS IN FRM W. MOS TMPS LKS GD TNGT CLDS/TMPS KPNG DIURNAL CHNG SMALL. HI'S SUNDAY LK A LITTLE TOO AGRESSIVE AND WILL SHADE A LTL. OTRW MOS LKS RSNBL. EXTENDED LOOKS WRM AND DRY AS UPR RDG PARKS OVR MID WEST WITH LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR SW U.S. .DVN... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. DLF il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1123 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 LTST VIS AND SFC OBS SHOW CICS MVG INTO WRN CWA ATTM. WL FRESHEN AM WORDING FOR UPDATE. LIGHT PRECIP ON KLOT RADAR IN WRN IL. LTST RUC AND ETA HAVE COND PRES DEF OF AT LEAST 50-100MB UNTIL 00Z SO PRECIP WL HOLD OFF THIS AFTN AS MSTR MEETS WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS. TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK GOOD. .IWX...NONE. JLA in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 822 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2000 CONCERNS FOR EVE UPDATE WERE MAINLY CNTRD ARND PCPN TYPE. CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICES AND NWS SPOTTERS INDC THAT PCPN NOW ALL SNW XCP FOR SERN PTNS OF FA WERE MIX OCCURRING. DMX RADAR REFLECTIVITIES OVEREXAGGERATING PCPN INTENSITY A BIT WITH BRIGHT BANDING JUDGING FM RPTS OF SOME LRG WET FLAKES BUT STILL FAIRLY HIGH VSBYS OF SVRL MILES. HWVR SFC OBS INDC THAT MOD SNW FALLING IN A FEW SPOTS UNDER THE HIGH REFLECTIVITIES WITH KCNC NOW AOB 1SM. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS SHRT WV LIFTING ALG SHEAR AXIS THRU IA WITH SCND DROPPING INTO BASE OF TROF WELL S OF FA. ALTHOUGH DEF ZN/SHEAR AXIS IS BCMG A BIT MORE ELONGATED...IT IS NOT SHOWING MUCH EWD PROGRESSION SO XPC PCPN FIELD TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EWD TIL SHRT WV ROUNDS BOTTOM OF TROF. 00Z RUC CONFIRMS THIS WITH MID LVL QG AND FRONTOGENITICAL FORCING HOLDING STEADY OVR SERN THIRD OF FA TIL AT LEAST 12Z. H7/H5 DEFORMATION POINTS AT THIS AS WELL. SINCE WE HAVE SWITCHED TO SNW IN MOST LOCATIONS AND FCST SOUNDINGS INCD THAT AS WELL...QUESTION TURNS TWRD HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION TO XPC. AIR TEMPS STILL SVRL DEGS ABV FRZG IN AREA OF CONCERN AND PAVEMENT TEMPS STILL SVRL DEGS ABV FRZG AND WET TOO. THUS XPC PLENTY OF MELTING AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO MAINLY BE ON GRASSY AREAS. HWVR IF INTENSITY PICKS UP TOO MUCH...SNWFALL RATES MAY OVERCOME TEMPS JUST ABV FRZG AND ACCUMULATIONS MAY BEGIN. FOR TIME BEING WL MENTION AN INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY ON GRASS. HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED SOME SLEET RPTS WHICH ALSO CORROBORATES BRIGHT BANDING...BUT JUDGING FM 00Z KOAX/KDVN AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...XPC PD TO BE BRIEF SO DID NOT MENTION IN FCST. MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND WND TO FIT CURRENT WX. .DSM...NONE SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1137 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF MID CLOUDS OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS WI...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. COMBINATION OF LAKE AND DIURNAL CU/SC SPREADING INTO CENTRAL UPPER IN AXIS OF HIGHER (MID 20S) SURFACE DEW POINTS. PROBLEM FOR THE AFTERNOON REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER...WITH 12Z APX/DTX RAOBS VERY DRY BELOW 600 MB. DIURNAL CLOUDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM TODAY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE TEENS...ONLY WESTERN MACKINAC/ CHIPPEWA COUNTIES MAY SEE A LITTLE SC TODAY. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOWING SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS WI AND WESTERN IL...BUT ONLY LSE REPORTING PRECIPITATION IN WI. WITH MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION (ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SUPPORT FROM FAVORED RRQ OF ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK TO THE NORTHWEST) REMAINING WEST...NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL THIS EVENING. WITH MID LEVELS INITIALLY QUITE DRY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...LEADING EDGE OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY ERODE AS IT PUSHES EAST...BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT MID CLOUD TO OVERSPREAD EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY 06Z MESOETA AND 15Z RUC UPDATE. HAVE REWORDED NORTHEAST LOWER AS JUST MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY... THINKING THAT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO DUSK. AREA RAOBS SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES...MIXING APX SOUNDING OUT TO ONLY 875MB SUPPORTS A HIGH AROUND 40 DEGREES. DID BUMP READINGS UP A BIT FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER WHERE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S. UPDATED ARBZFPAPX WILL BE OUT BY 1645Z. .APX...NONE. JPB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2000 LGT MIXED PCPN CONTS TO PUSH EWRD AND WILL END IN SE PTNS CWA DRNG EVE. CURRENT AREA OF HIER RETURNS FROM SC MN INTO EAU AREA GETTING SOME HELP FROM WHAT APRS TO BE A WK SHRTWV WHICH SPUN OFF FM KS LOW. WHAT LKS LK A WK VORT LOBE IS NOW S OF AEL AND TRACKING NE. THIS FEATURE ALSO SHOWING UP ON 19Z RUC. ONCE PCPN ENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE S MN INTO WI WILL BE LEFT WITH LOW CLDS AND AREAS FOG. SFC DWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30S AND SFC TROF WILL WASH OUT PRIOR TO SWEEPING THRU AREA. WITH LGT WNDS AND MID CLDS PEELING AWAY AREA OF LOW CLDS AND FOG SHUD EXPAND OVERNITE. ETA BNDRY LAYER RH PROG LKS REASONABLE. TEMPS IN S PTNS SHUD NOT FALL OFF MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OVERNITE. WITH CLDS ACRS S AND E PTNS AREA AT LEAST THRU MRNG AND ELY WNDS WILL GO A BIT COOLER THAN MOS FOR TMRW...MORE IN LINE WITH FAN TEMPS. AREA REMAINS IN THE SPLITS THRU PRD WITH ONE SIGGY LOW TRACKING OUT OF TX INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DRNG PRD AS ANOTHER TRACKS ACRS CNTRL CNDA. WITH STG LOW DIGGING INTO 4 CRNRS AREA ON MONDAY HGTS SHUD RISE AND UPR WNDS BACK ACRS AREA KEEPING PCPN CHCS TO OUR WEST. SE AREAS HOWEVER MAY BE BRUSHED BY CLDS AND PERHAPS JUSTIFYING A LOW POP SUN NITE/MON AS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO OHIO VALLEY. AS FAR AS EFP CONCERNED PCPN CHCS ON TUES VIA MRF WILL BE CONFINED TO SHWR CHCS AS PACIFIC TROF MVS THRU. .MSP...NONE. PAULSON mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 255 PM MST SAT MAR 18 2000 SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN AND A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER AS OF THIS WRITING FROM SANGRES AND SANDIAS TO EASTCENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DONE WITH BY 900 PM PER LATEST RUC2 AS BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DECREASING NORTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL. WILL NOT REISSUE WIND ADVISORY AS SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE FROM UPPER FLOW SHORTLY AFTER DARK. TOMORROW SHOULD BE NICE AS TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE PROGGED TO SCOOT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA. ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS. A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER SHOULD COMMENCE MONDAY AND CARRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT RE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE...COLD...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IF MODEL PRECIPATION FROM NCEP/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE RUNS AND NOGAPS PAN OUT...THIS MAY BE OUR BEST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN SEVERAL MONTHS. ON A LOCAL NOTE...MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG EAST WINDS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING PERHAPS TILL WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER AIR PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE /ESPECIALLY THE PROGGED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW/. ABQ AN 028/066 038/065 036 38000 SAF AN 020/062 031/062 031 3810- TCC UN 028/065 038/072 039 38200 .ABQ...NONE. nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1110 AM MST SAT MAR 18 2000 COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST QUARTER AND EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES TILL SUNSET. WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -25C...SUFFICIENT CAPES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WINDY AREAWIDE WITH RUC2 SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM ROW AND SRR NW THROUGH ABQ TO FMN. 38 .ABQ...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON NMZ001>003-009>011-015>017-019- 026. GB nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 920 PM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 CLDS HV TEMPORARILY VACATED FAR NRN CWA AS STG DRY WEDGE CONTS TO BLD ACRS RGN. HWVR...LO LVL FLO TO BECM MORE SERLY OVRNGT WHICH SHUD BRING SOME ATLNTC MSTR BACK IN TO PICTURE BEFORE DAYBRK. ? IS WHETHER IT WL BE ENUF TO JSTFY LVING POPS IN N OF SAV RVR. AWFULLY DRY ONCE YOU GET N OF NBC. AM LEANING TWD LEAVING IN WDLY SCT POPS ALNG THE CST FM NBC SWD...BUT LEAVING OUT EVERYWHERE ELSE. WL DECIDE JST BEFORE ISSUANCE. WI WINDS STL BLOWING 10+ KT...EVEN IF CLDS SCT OUT FOR A WHILE IN THE N...SHUD ONLY BE SLGHTLY COOLER FOR THESE AREAS. OTRW...TEMPS STL LUK ON TRACK AND WL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJSTMNTS. IN AREAS WI SCT/FEW CLDS WL WORD AS BECMG MOSTLY CLDY. CWF...LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS A SOLID 25 TO EVEN 30 KT REPORTED BY THE PILOT BOAT WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. RUC AND MESOETA SHOW WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND MAY CONTINUE THIS TREND IN THE FCST SLIGHTLY BUT NOT GO AS LIGHT AS THE GUID WOULD SUGGEST DUE TO STRONG WEDGE. EXPECT SEAS TO BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO DROP OFF WITH CONTINUED NE FETCH. AM LEANING TOWARDS A STRONGER WEDGE AND LESS MOVEMENT OF COASTAL TROF OVERNIGHT AND PLAN TO KEEP WINDS NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. .CHS... SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANNAH OUT 20 NM. GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND OUT 60 NM. WOODWORTH/SLF sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 900 PM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 EXPECT LOW CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE BETTER LIFT APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST PART. PLAN TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST...BUT CHANGE TIMING FROM LATE TONIGHT TO TOWARD MORNING. THE 23Z RUC SHOWS MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW UNTIL AROUND 09Z. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. .CAE...NONE. RJL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1226 PM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 .UPDATE... UPDATE REQD TO REDUCE WIND...AND REMOVE BREEZY WORDING. SFC PRESS GRAD APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SOME...ESP NE CWA...AND SFC OBS REFLECTING SOME DIMINISHING WIND. .PREV DISC... ISENT LIFT CLDNS ACRS MOST OF S/W SC AND S/E GA AND OFFSHR WTRS. 850 RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ONE HIGH CENTER JUST OFFSHR SC CST N INTO ANOTHER HIGH CENTERED NR NY. BETWEEN THE TWO IS A 850 FRONT DENOTED BY CONVERGING WIND...AND A TEMP AND THETA E GRAD STRETCHING ACRS NE CWA. CLDNS HAVING A HARD TIME MOVG N OF THIS FEATURE. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MDL DATA. LTST RUC SHIFTS WEAKNESS IN 850 FLOW TO THE SE AND KEEPS MOST MOISTURE GENERALLY WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY...WITH 06Z MESOETA SHIFTING IT MORE TO THE NE...WITH STRONGER SW WIND AND INCR MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVR CWA. SATL TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE RUC. NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS MSTLY CLDY COND TO CONT FOR CENT/S CWA...AND WILL LIKELY KEEP PC WORDING NE CWA. CAA/NE SFC FLOW AND CLD CVR WILL MAKE IT HARD TO REACH FCST MAX...ESP C/S. LTST 12Z FRH T1 TRENDS SUGGEST A HIGH ONLY ABT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORN MIN. WILL HAVE TO LOWER MAXES AT LEAST A CAT. CURRENT OBS AND MDL FCST SUPPORT CONT WORDING OF BREEZY COND. .CAE...NONE. MILLER sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1010 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 ISENT LIFT CLDNS ACRS MOST OF S/W SC AND S/E GA AND OFFSHR WTRS. 850 RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ONE HIGH CENTER JUST OFFSHR SC CST N INTO ANOTHER HIGH CENTERED NR NY. BETWEEN THE TWO IS A 850 FRONT DENOTED BY CONVERGING WIND...AND A TEMP AND THETA E GRAD STRETCHING ACRS NE CWA. CLDNS HAVING A HARD TIME MOVG N OF THIS FEATURE. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MDL DATA. LTST RUC SHIFTS WEAKNESS IN 850 FLOW TO THE SE AND KEEPS MOST MOISTURE GENERALLY WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY...WITH 06Z MESOETA SHIFTING IT MORE TO THE NE...WITH STRONGER SW WIND AND INCR MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVR CWA. SATL TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE RUC. NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS MSTLY CLDY COND TO CONT FOR CENT/S CWA...AND WILL LIKELY KEEP PC WORDING NE CWA. CAA/NE SFC FLOW AND CLD CVR WILL MAKE IT HARD TO REACH FCST MAX...ESP C/S. LTST 12Z FRH T1 TRENDS SUGGEST A HIGH ONLY ABT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORN MIN. WILL HAVE TO LOWER MAXES AT LEAST A CAT. CURRENT OBS AND MDL FCST SUPPORT CONT WORDING OF BREEZY COND. .CAE...NONE. MILLER sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 955 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. FROM SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE ONLY CHANCE OF CLEARING WOULD BE FROM DRY AIR TRYING TO WORK DOWN FROM THE NORTH. BUT LOOKING AT SATELLITE TRENDS THAT DOES NOT SEEM TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME HOLES OR THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME SO WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY. COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS SHOULD HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES. MAY HAVE TO LOWER MAXIMA SOME FOR THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE IT IS STILL ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. CWF...SLIGHT CHANGE TO CURRENT FCST. WILL MOVE NE WIND BECMG E IN SUN PERIOD TO TONIGHT PERIOD. 25 TO 30 KT WINDS CONTINUE AT BOUYS 41004 AND 41008 WITH SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. LATEST RUC...MESOETA... AND 12Z ETA INDICATE SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS LATER TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING E OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN ABOUT DEVELOPING COASTAL TROF. MESOETA DEVELOPS STONG COASTAL TROF WITH OVER 1 IN PRECIP ALONG COAST OVERNIGHT FROM CHS TO SAV. THIS SEEMS SOMEWHAT EXCESSIVE... HOWEVER 12Z ETA ALSO INDICATES A WEAKER TROF WITH MUCH LESS PRECIP... BUT AXIS OF MAX PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. CURRENT MENTION OF PRECIP IN FCST ADEQUATE ATTM. .CHS... SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANNAH OUT 20 NM. GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND OUT 60 NM. /SLB sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 941 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2000 CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST APPEAR POISED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. A FEW SPRINKLES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BE THE EXTENT AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS OKLAHOMA. MSAS INDICATING CAA TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS COLDER TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S RESIDE TO THE NORTH. RUC SUPPORTS A STRONG GRADIENT AS WELL SO WILL LEAVE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WINDS AS IS. VORT MAX TO SLIDE EAST BY SUNRISE SO COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH SHOULD MOVE IN. 21 tx COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 730 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2000 UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. BUMPED POPS UP TO 50% FROM CRP-VCT. STILL ANTICIPATE SELY WINDS THIS AFTN AND WARMER TEMPS AS H85 TROF ADVANCES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO OUR NERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. ------------------------------------------------------------- LATEST RUC ANALYSIS OVERLAYED ON WV IMAGERY SHOWS A 100KT JET STREAK APCHG DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ATTM WITH MOISTURE INCREASING INTO THE STATE AHEAD OF IT AS SEEN ON KCRP 88D. AT THE SURFACE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MEANDERING ALONG THE COAST BECOMING VERY SHALLOW AS SELY LOW LVL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE APCHG TROF IN WEST TEXAS. ABV THE SFC BNDRY LYR A STRONG CAP RESIDES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE WRN ZONES DRY TDY UNTIL PSBLY FROPA TNGT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. EXPECT BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER THIS AFTN AS WARM FNT MOVES INLAND AND H85 TROF ADVANCES TO A CRP-SAT LINE...HOWEVER CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLGTLY BELOW MOS PROGS. CAP SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE IN THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTN...EXPECIALLY AS THE LEFT FNT QUAD OF H25 JET INTERACTS WITH THE NWD MOVING SFC BNDRY. ETA/AVN MODELS SHOW THE AMS BECMG MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER THE VCT AREA BY MID AFTN WITH CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. PROVIDED CLOUDS ERODE AND SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE. H5 TEMPS ARE A COOL -16C...HOWEVER DUE TO WEAK SHEAR PROFILE...SVR STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. FOR TNGTS FCST I WILL TRIM POP DOWN A NOTCH AS LASTEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MORE OF A SWLY H85 FLOW OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE UP THE COAST TOWARD HOUSTON. SPC REMOVED TSTMS ALL TOGETHER IN OUR AREA WHICH I THINK IS TOO HARSH...HOWEVER THEIR SLGT RISK AREA LOOKS REASONABLE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT TNGT. STEEP LAPES RATES ALOFT...MOD INSTABILITY AND DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD A GOOD CHC OF STORMS ACROSS THE NERN COUNTIES. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG CAP..DRY ENVIRONMENT I WILL TRIM POPS TO 20% IN THE WEST. HOWEVER COLD AIR ALOFT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED STORMS IN THE WEST. WILL WORD TNGT'S FCST TURNING WINDY AND COOLER AS FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. SCA'S ARE EXPECTED IN ALL MARINE AREAS LATE TNGT PERSISTING SUN. THE GRADIENT DROPS OFF SUN AFTN...THUS TEMPS WILL REBOUND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXTENDED...MRF AND ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG UPR TROF INTO WEST TEXAS MON AFTN AND TUE. EXPECT A QUICK RETURN FLOW MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WAA SHOWERS ON TUE AND WED. PRELIMS FOLLOW... CRP EN 074/053 072/045 5420 NGP EN 072/055 069/050 VCT EN 072/050 072/043 5640 LRD EN 076/054 070/052 2220 75/87 .CRP...NONE. tx COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 310 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2000 LATEST RUC ANALYSIS OVERLAYED ON WV IMAGERY SHOWS A 100KT JET STREAK APCHG DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ATTM WITH MOISTURE INCREASING INTO THE STATE AHEAD OF IT AS SEEN ON KCRP 88D. AT THE SURFACE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MEANDERING ALONG THE COAST BECOMING VERY SHALLOW AS SELY LOW LVL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE APCHG TROF IN WEST TEXAS. ABV THE SFC BNDRY LYR A STRONG CAP RESIDES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE WRN ZONES DRY TDY UNTIL PSBLY FROPA TNGT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. EXPECT BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER THIS AFTN AS WARM FNT MOVES INLAND AND H85 TROF ADVANCES TO A CRP-SAT LINE...HOWEVER CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLGTLY BELOW MOS PROGS. CAP SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE IN THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTN...EXPECIALLY AS THE LEFT FNT QUAD OF H25 JET INTERACTS WITH THE NWD MOVING SFC BNDRY. ETA/AVN MODELS SHOW THE AMS BECMG MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER THE VCT AREA BY MID AFTN WITH CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. PROVIDED CLOUDS ERODE AND SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE. H5 TEMPS ARE A COOL -16C...HOWEVER DUE TO WEAK SHEAR PROFILE...SVR STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. FOR TNGTS FCST I WILL TRIM POP DOWN A NOTCH AS LASTEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MORE OF A SWLY H85 FLOW OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE UP THE COAST TOWARD HOUSTON. SPC REMOVED TSTMS ALL TOGETHER IN OUR AREA WHICH I THINK IS TOO HARSH...HOWEVER THEIR SLGT RISK AREA LOOKS REASONABLE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT TNGT. STEEP LAPES RATES ALOFT...MOD INSTABILITY AND DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD A GOOD CHC OF STORMS ACROSS THE NERN COUNTIES. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG CAP..DRY ENVIRONMENT I WILL TRIM POPS TO 20% IN THE WEST. HOWEVER COLD AIR ALOFT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED STORMS IN THE WEST. WILL WORD TNGT'S FCST TURNING WINDY AND COOLER AS FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. SCA'S ARE EXPECTED IN ALL MARINE AREAS LATE TNGT PERSISTING SUN. THE GRADIENT DROPS OFF SUN AFTN...THUS TEMPS WILL REBOUND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXTENDED...MRF AND ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG UPR TROF INTO WEST TEXAS MON AFTN AND TUE. EXPECT A QUICK RETURN FLOW MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WAA SHOWERS ON TUE AND WED. PRELIMS FOLLOW... CRP EN 074/053 072/045 3420 NGP EN 072/055 069/050 VCT EN 072/050 072/043 4640 LRD EN 076/054 070/052 2220 75/87 .CRP...NONE. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 950 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 HI PRESS RIDGE...BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...TO REMAIN OVER NEW ENG THRU 12Z SUN. WK CAA AT H85 TODAY TO BE REPLACED BY WK WAA TONITE. WK H5 S/W TO MOVE NE ACRS THE FA LATER TONITE...BUT IT/LL HAVE NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS UPR LVLS ARE BONE DRY. 12Z RUC SHOWS LT WINDS AND HI TEMPS IN THE L-M20S TODAY...WHICH SEEMS A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY TOUCHING 20 DEG F ATTM. T1MAX TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 30S FOR TODAY. SAT PIX SHOW SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACRS EASTERN ONT AND WESTERN QUE ATTM...BUT THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS SHOULD ERODE WITH TIME AS IT COMES IN CONTACT WITH THE RIDGE THAT/S OVER THE REGION. A FEW WISPS OF HIR CLDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ST LAW VLY TODAY...BUT THAT/S IT. JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS AND WINDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS TRENDS. A FEW MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO SECOND PERIOD AS WELL. WORK ZONES OUT. FINAL ZFP AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST LAMP DATA. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 905 PM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 SFC RIDGE REMAINING LOCKED IN ALONG THE ERN SLOPES THIS EVE AS CLDNS ASSOCD WITH INIT VORT LOBE/ISENT LIFT GRDLY APCH FROM THE WEST. SATL PICS INDICATE MOST OF THE HIGH/MID VARIETY WITH LOWER DECK STILL STUCK OVER WRN NC ATTM. LOTS OF QUESTS OVRNGT WITH AMOUNT OF LOW CLDNS AND EVENTUAL CHCS OF SEEING SOME -DZ OR FRZG -DZ IN BEST UPSLOPE AREAS TWD MORN. GIVEN SO MUCH DRY LOW LVL AIR IN PLACE AND VERY WEAK BLYR UPSLOPE ATTM APRS ANY PRECIP CVRG LKLY TO BE QUITE SPOTTY. THINK BEST CHCS LKLY ON THE FAR SW SLOPES WHERE AXIS OF DEEPER RH OFF GULF STATES TSRA MAY PUSH A FEW SHRA ACROSS BY MORN. ALTHOUGH DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE 20S...LACK OF -RA TO EVAP COOL PLUS RISING READINGS WRN RIDGES LATE DUE TO WAA ALOFT/CLDNS PRBLY ENOUGH TO HOLD MOST ABOVE FRZG AFTER LOW CLDNS ARRIVES. WILL ADJUST ZONES TWD MORE OF A SPRINKLES OR LOW -RA POP SCENARIO WEST OF THE NRV AND ONLY MENTION SPOTTY -FZDZ IN COLDER VALLEYS FROM THE NRN NC MTNS INTO THE NRV/BLUE RIDGE. FARTHER EAST...IDEA OF INCRSG CLDNS LOOKS GOOD BUT W/OUT PRECIP MENTION AS MESO-ETA/RUC KEEP MAJ OF RH WEST OF THE BLUE RDG TIL SUNDAY. TEMPS APR ON TRACK ALTHOUGH MAY BE A BIT LOW SE ZONES AND LKLY NEED A RANGE OR INDICATE SOME RISE WRN SLOPES LATE. .RNK VA...NONE. WV...NONE. NC...NONE. JH va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 300 AM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 KIWX RADAR SHOWS FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP EXITING NE CWA WHILE KILX HAS NEXT BAND MOVING INTO C IL. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SFC AND UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AFFECT CWA THRU MON. A LITTLE MIXED PRECIP REPORTED EARLIER IN NORTHEAST. 06Z RUC SOUNDING HAS TEMP PROFILE ABOVE FREEZING IN LOW LEVELS BUT DID HAVE A PRETTY GOOD DRY LAYER AROUND 900MB AT 12Z THEN SATURATED ALL LEVELS BY 18Z. SO ONSET OF NEXT BATCH COULD HAVE A LITTLE MIX AT FIRST BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE LOCALIZED AND BRIEF SO KEEP WITH RAIN IN ZONES. ALL MODELS SIMILAR IN INITIALIZATION OF BOTH SFC AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. AVN CONTINUES TO DEEPEN UPPER LOW THE MOST AND CARRIES SFC LOW FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN ETA OR NGM. FAVORED A BLEND BETWEEN ETA AND AVN. BOTH FWC AND FAN CARRY CAT POPS FIRST THREE PERIODS AND CERTAINLY APPROPRIATE FIRST PERIOD WITH APPROACHING PRECIP. TONIGHT 50-60KT LLJ OVER E TN/KY WITH AXIS OF THETAE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM GULF COAST INTO TN VALLEY AND ON UP THRU OH. THIS SHOULD HELP FOCUS MAIN AREA OF PRECIP FOR OUR AREA OVER EASTERN HALF OF CWA SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CAT POPS HERE AND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY IN WEST. SIMILAR TREND FOR MON AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO KY AND VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND BASE OF TROF THROUGH TN..KEEPING FOCUS TO THE EAST. WILL CUT BACK ON GUIDANCE DOWN TO LIKELY IN EAST AND CHANCE IN WEST. REMOVED PRECIP FROM WEST FOR MON NITE OTHERWISE NO CHANGE TO EXTENDED. FWC/FAN TEMPS CLOSE AND REASONABLE ALL PERIODS. .IWX...NONE. JAL in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 335 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2000 LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWING COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SE MS WITH MAIN CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. OTHER CONVECTIVE AREA OVER MS DELTA BACK INTO AR/LA SHOWING WARMING TOPS AND THIS ALSO REFLECTED IN LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING. LATEST RUC INDICATING E MS IN FAVORABLE AREA WITH RESPECT TO COUPLED H25 JETS AND GOOD VERTICAL DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE. ANOTHER NOTABLE FEATURE IS THE COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER C TX. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...BUT PREFERRED THE ETA/NGM SOLUTIONS AS THE AVN SURFACE FEATURES WERE TOO FAST. LOOKING AT MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...DEEP VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY...BUT MAINLY THE E WHERE BEST WARM...MOIST ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS. WESTERN SECTIONS MAY SEE ANOTHER BRIEF EVENT AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE FRONT. MAJORITY OF PRECIP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS SHOULD BE OVER BY NOON. SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN PICKING UP SPEED TODAY AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE/JET STREAK OVER TX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF AND SERVES TO PULL IT E. IN FACT...SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT BY TONIGHT. WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN SPEED TODAY...WILL ALLOW CURRENT FFA TO EXPIRE AND NOT ISSUE ANOTHER FOR E AREAS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH AMOUNTS UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES...DURATION WILL BE AS SUCH TO LIMIT ANY MAJOR FLOOD PROBLEMS. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE...OF COURSE...WITH CONVECTION...BUT BELIEVE THOSE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED IF AT ALL. FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOIST LAYER WILL MIX OUT SOME DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO WILL WORD BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. QPF DISCUSSION: AVN LOCATION OF HEAVY RAIN AXIS VERIFYING BEST SO FAR BUT AMOUNTS CLOSER TO ETA PROG. THIS COMBINATION WORKED WELL IN LAST SIMILAR SITUATION AND WILL USE IT AGAIN. THIS PAINTS HEAVIEST TOTALS OF AN INCH OR SO OVER EAST MS...WHICH AGREES WITH NCEP LOCATION AND UNDERCUTS AMOUNTS A BIT. JAN 63/44/64/42 +-00 MEI 65/46/63/41 +300 .JAN... MS...NONE. AR...NONE. LA...NONE. 26 ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 305 AM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 DYNAMIC SPRING SYSTEM IN THE OFFING FOR OUR CWFA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON. TONIGHTS MODEL ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO CLOSE IN ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COMPLEX CUT-OFF. MANY FACTORS POINT TOWARD SEVERE WEATHER FOR SRN GEORGIA AND POSSIBLY NE INTO SERN S CAROLINA...BUT THE STRONG SFC WEDGE IN PLACE IS COMPLICATING THE PICTURE. IN THE SHORT TERM...CLOUD COVER IS ONCE AGAIN THE INITIAL PROBLEM. THE RUC INDICATES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKING SW TOWARD COASTAL S CAROLINA WHERE SKIES ARE CURRENTLY VRBLY CLOUDY. PLAN TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON SKY COVER TDA BUT AS OF NOW...MOSTLY CLOUDY THE PLAN FOR SE GEORGIA AND PTLY/VRBLY CLOUDY S CAROLINA ZONES. POPS WILL BE CHCY IN SE GEORGIA AND MAY HANG ON TO SLGT CHC NBC-CHS. TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE MOVG INTO W TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT PILES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF AND SHUNTS THE ENERGY INTO A SHARP NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT AND MON. THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO IS ALSO A FACTOR TO CONSIDER AS SOME PHASING WAS ALREADY OCCURRING...EVIDENCED BY A BOWING LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE GULF THIS MORNING. THE ETA/AVN AND NOGAPS WERE CONSISTENT IN MOVG STRONG UVM INTO SRN/ERN GEORGIA TONIGHT WITH AN INTENSE CONVERGENCE ZONE TRACKING NE OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ON MON. OF COURSE WITH THE WEDGE NOT LIKELY TO GIVE UP WITHOUT A BATTLE...INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE. TSTMS WILL BE LIMITED TO SE GEORGIA TONIGHT AND MAKE A RUN AT ERN S CAROLINA MON. HELICITY VALUES WILL BE HUGE INVOF THE WARM FRONT AND SOME SERIOUS STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SRN GEORGIA WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE WARMER AND JUICIER. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS IN SE GEORGIA TONIGHT AND SERN S CAROLINA MON WITH POPS DECREASING BEHIND THE CONVERGENCE LINE. TEMPS QUITE TRICKY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. EXTENDED FCST ON TARGET. CWF: CURRENT CWF PAINTS A VERY UGLY PICTURE TO BOATERS AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE. WILL SLOW THE VEERING PROCESS DOWN AS RAIN INLAND ENHANCES THE WEDGE AND A WEAK COASTAL TROF LINGERS OFFSHORE. PLAN TO MENTION SHLW CSTL FLOODING PSBL AT HIGH TIDES STARTING ON THIS PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH BEST CHC OF THIS OCCURRING TDA WILL BE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WHERE THE INITIAL FETCH IS MORE FAVORABLE. PRELIM CHS ET 062/056 065/053 073 2425832 SAV ET 064/057 068/052 075 2448721 CHL ET 061/057 065/056 069 2425832 NBC ET 062/056 065/053 073 2425832 .CHS... SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY S SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANNAH OUT 20 NM. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND OUT 60 NM. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. RVT sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 320 AM MST SUN MAR 19 2000 TDA WL BE RELATIVELY QUIET BFR MAJOR WNTR STRM DVLPS LT TNGT/MON. BIG PROBLM THIS MRNG IS GETTING WIND SPDS DWN AT ARL. 50-55KT SPDS LWST LVLS MBW PROFILER NOT SUPPORTED BY MDLS. 09Z RUC HAS SPDS DMNSHG AFT 12Z. ONLY ARL PROB AREA SO WL HANDLE WITH NOWCASTS. 10KM MM5 HAS QPF TO RWL AREA BY 00Z...AS DOES ITS INITIALIZING ETA. 94O HAS PSBLTY TSTMS. AVN/NGM LOOK TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH QPF BY 24HRS. FCST GETS MUCH MR COMPLICATED TNGT/MON. 140-150KT 3H JET ALG WA/OR CST AT 24HRS MVS INLAND TO SW ID-SRN CA AREA BY 48HRS. AVN/NGM SLGTLY LWR WITH SPDS TDA. NGM SLGTLY SLOER WITH CORE OF JET. FM 36-48HRS MDLS DVLP SECNDRY JET CORE FM SW NM TO ERN CO. THIS INCRSG UPR LVL DIVRGNC WL HV STG BACLIN ZN SLIDING S AND E UNDERNEATH IT TO PROVIDE ENERGY FOR CYCLNC DVLPMT. WITH STGST JET STILL FEEDG INTO BACKSIDE 5H LO MON...STGST VORTICITY WL NOT HAVE SHIFTED TO ERN QUADRNT LO. LO WL BE ONLY DRFTG EWD...IF AT ALL. PREFER SLGTLY SLOER ETA AT 48HRS. PER DISCN WITH RIW...MSTR CUT OFF FM GULF. DESPITE THIS MDLS REALLY CRANK UP MN RH TNGT AS OVRRNG SETS UP AND WK VORT CNTR MOVS NE OUT OF CO. MSTR QUESTION ANOTHER REASON PREFER A LTL MR CONSERVATIVE QPF ON ETA. AVN HAS LO WOBBLING ARND AZ/FOUR CORNERS AREA THRU 72HRS. WL ADD MISSING PD...MON NGT...TO ZNS. THCKNS OVR NE ZNS 21..55 DON/T LWR ENUF TIL ABT MIDDAY MON FOR SNW TO REALLY GET GOING. HV LEFT THEM OUT OF WSA FOR NOW. .CYS... WY...WNTR STRM WATCH LT TNGT/MON S-CNTRL AND E-CNTRL ZNS 59..61>64..66. WNTR STRM WATCH MON SE ZNS 60..65..67>70. NE...WNTR STRM WATCH MON WRN PANHANDLE ZNS 1>3..19..20..54. COX wy AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1000 AM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: CHALLENGE THIS AFTN ONCE AGN IS TEMPS. TEMPS SHOWING A GRDL RISE AFT A COLD START. MAINLY LOCALES IN NRN ME WENT BLO 0F OVNGT. STG MARCH SUN HELPING TO WARM THGS UP. SATL IR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CI MOVG ACRS THE CWFA BUT SCTD @ BEST. LATEST RUC SNDGS SUGGEST MAXES RCHG AOA 40F IN MOST LOCALES. THIS MATCHES W/12Z RAOBS FM CAR/GYX. H8 TEMPS HAVE WARMED 2-3 DEGS OVER THE PAST 12 HRS. HOWEVER W/COLD AIR ENTRENCHED...A BLEND OF ETA T1/EARLIER FAN GUID SHOWS MAXES BEING LOWER USING AN ADJUSTMENT. HAVE SEEN THIS WORK IN THE PAST W/SETUP LIKE THIS. FOR THE UPDATE...WILL EASE TEMPS UP A CAT IN MOST ZNS. COASTAL WATERS: WINDS CLOSE TO SCA THIS MRNG THANX TO CONTD GRDNT FM HIGH PRES TO THE N & GALE CENTER SE OF NS. WILL GO W/INIT 15-20 THIS AFTN & THEN THK WINDS WILL COME DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT RNG THIS EVNG AS GALE CENTER CONTS TO MOVE SE AS DEPICTED BY LATEST SATL WV IMAGERY. .CAR...NONE. JAH me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1011 AM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 HI PRESS RIDGE TO HANG TUFF ACRS NEW ENG THRU 12Z MON...AS A CUTOFF AREA OF LOW PRESS MEANDERS ACRS THE MS AND OH RIVER VLYS. AS THIS SYS BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH TIME...THE UPR RIDGE THAT/S OVER THE FA WILL BECOME STRONGER INTO TONITE. WK H85 WAA ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...BEST ADVECTION TO OCCUR TO THE WEST IN CANADA THOUGH. 12Z RUC SHOWS WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ST LAW VLY (WHERE THE WINDS ARE STILL OUT OF THE NE...WHILE CWGH AND KGTB ARE SCREAMING OUT OF THE SOUTH). HI TEMPS ONLY SHOWN TO BE IN THE M20S-L30S...WHICH LOOKS COOL (JUST LIKE THEY DID YESTERDAY) GIVEN THAT SOME LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY INTO THE 30S. T1MAX TEMPS ARE 40-45 FOR TODAY. LOW LVLS WILL BE DRY TODAY...BUT BEST CHC FOR ANY MID LVL CLOUDINESS LATER TODAY AND TONITE WILL BE IN THE ST LAW VLY AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE ADIRONDACKS. RUC KEEPS ANY PCPN CONFINED TO THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY. BUFCAN SHOWS ANY PCPN THAT/S MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LKS REGION IS DRYING UP ATTM. GOES-8 SAT PIX SHOW MOST OF THE CLDS/MOISTURE THAT/S MOVING NORTH ACRS THE OH VLY WILL BE SAFELY MOVING UP TO OUR WEST INTO CANADA TODAY. HAVE RE-GROUPED RUT CTY WITH THE CHAMP VLY ZONES AND WINDSOR CTY WITH NE/NC VT BASED ON CURRENT TEMP/WIND TRENDS. BUMPED TODAY/S HI TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS UP A LIL IN A FEW ZONES BASED ON CURRENT OBS TRENDS AS WELL. WORK ZONES GONE. FINAL ZFP AFTER QUICK LOOK AT LATEST LAMP DATA. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 240 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2000 ...SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THROUGH MISSOURI WITH A 30 KNOT LLJ ON THE BACKSIDE FROM IOWA INTO TEXAS. A WEAK VORT MAX IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA ENHANCING THE UVVS AND CREATING A NARROW BAND OF SN/+SN AROUND KCID. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS IN ARKANSAS AND ABOUT TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM HAS COME ONSHORE IN THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH 12Z UPPER AIR SHOWING 370 DEKAMETER FALLS AT SPOKANE. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM IS MOVING UP THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS WITH 3- 4 MORESYSTEMS BACK ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN ASIA. IR SHOWS CLOUD TOPS COOLED THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA WITH VISIBLE SHOWING CONVECTIVE TOPS EMBEDDED IN THE ST/SC. REGIONAL RADARS CONFIRM SATELLITE INDICATIONS OF TWO DEFORMATION ZONES...ONE OVER EASTERN IOWA AND THE OTHER A LITTLE WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR. DUAL DRY SLOTS MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS SHUTTING OFF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WHILE ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA ARE NORTHBOUND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A LOW SOUTHWEST OF KSPI WITH ANOTHER NEAR KCGI. A WARM FRONT RAN FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA WITH TROFS RUNNING UP THROUGH NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND ANOTHER THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSOURI TOWARD KLWD. MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 40 DEW POINTS WELL INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE MANY...CLOUDS/FOG/PRECIP...AND TEMPS. 12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED OK WITH THE AVN/ETA VERIFYING BETTER AT 18Z THAN THE NGM. CURRENT RUC RUNS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE AVN/ETA SO WILL FOLLOW ACCORDINGLY. AVN/ETA PUSH THE CURRENT VORT MAX OVER IOWA INTO WISCONSIN. QG FORCING EVENTUALLY BECOMES DOWNWARD HELPING TO TRAP MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ARKANSAS SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THROUGH ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND INCREASING UPWARD MOTION IN THE QG FIELDS. AVN/ETA SHOW THE UPPER SYSTEM BECOMING A BIT MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO WRAP AROUND. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW A STRONG INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH COOL GROUND AND EVENTUAL WAA TAKING PLACE WILL MAKE IT IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. DON/T BELIEVE FOG WILL BE DENSE ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY TONIGHT BUT MONDAY NIGHT IS ANOTHER STORY. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE FOR TONIGHT ALONG WITH MENTIONING AREAS OF FOG. FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE -RA/-SN ONGOING WILL TAPER IT OFF TO DRIZZLE. FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF - SHRA/-RALATER TONIGHT WHICH MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FOG REDEVELOPING WITH A VENGENCE MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND FOG BREAK UP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY DUE TO STRONGER MARCH SUNSHINE AND PAC NORTHWEST SYSTEM KICKING OUT MID MISSISSIPPI SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND REASONABLY NICE BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WISE...GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO WARM FOR MAXES THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY WITH AT MOST A 5- 8 DEGREE DIURNAL JUMP MONDAY. AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES TUESDAY WITH MORE OF A WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. ...EXTENDED... QUESTIONS HERE IS WHAT TO BELIEVE. MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWING THIS UP FROM RUN TO RUN. PER AVN EXTENSION NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY IS THE QUESTION MARK DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU WISH TO BELIEVE. PER MRF AND AVN EXTENSION SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WHILE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT MAY BE DRY. FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCE FOR SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...ILX...AND STL. .DVN...NONE. NC il SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 210 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2000 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MISSOURI TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST MOVING EASTWARD. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...WITH RADAR SHOWING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER ST. MARY PARISH. FORECAST PERIOD... TONIGHT...QUESTIONS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND LOW TEMPS. USING 80 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUE ON ETA AND RUC MODELS...CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE OUT OF FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH FROM WEST TEXAS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX AND TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S NORTHERN PORTIONS TO LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FIRST SHORT WAVE TO MOVE TO THE EAST COAST...WHILE NEXT ONE ENTERS SOUTHWEST US. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE. LOW MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED OVER THE AREA...SO EXPECT SUNNY SKIES. BELIEVE MODELS A LITTLE QUICK IN RETURN FLOW. THEREFORE...A LITTLE COOLER IN TEMPS THAN MOS FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST US AS IT GETS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW. FIRST IN A SERIES OF VORT MAXS EJECTING OUT FRONT THE LOW WILL TRY TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL NOT MENTION POPS. EXTENDED...WED THRU FRI...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST US EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRI. SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. BUT BEST DYNAMICS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. 7-RUA .LCH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT. LA...SCA GMZ450-455-470-475. TX...GMZ450-470. .PRELIMS... BPT 42/70/54/72 0000 LCH 41/70/51/72 0000 LFT 43/70/49/72 0000 AEX 39/68/47/72 0000 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TEXT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1002 AM EST SUN MAR 19 2000 VIS IMG SHOWING STATUS CLOUDS RETREATING AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITH SOME CUMULUS BUILD UP OVER NC INLAND COUNTIES. CIRRUS AND ALTO CUMULUS CLOUDS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM CONVECTION TO SOUTHWEST. MORNING RUC PICKED UP ON THE GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL RELATIVITY HUMIDITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 3 PM. FOR AFTERNOON TIME FRAME IN FORECAST I DO NOT SEE ANY NEED TO CHANGE FROM CURRENT MOSTLY CLOUDY. A PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST MAY SUIT SELECT COUNTIES. LAMP GUID SUGGEST COOLER TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS CWFA AND WILL COMPARE WITH 15Z OBS BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISION. NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS WEDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP. CWF: NO CHANGES PLANNED. SCA TO CONTINUE. .ILM...SCA SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC. JFP nc