AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 855 PM EST SUN MAR 12 2000 CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. OF COURSE ONE WOULD BE ABLE TO TELL THIS BY LOOKING AT JAX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING .18 INCHES OF PW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED AS WELL AND IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF FL AND NE GULF OF MEXICO. SFC HIGH 1027 MB LOCATED OVER OHIO VALLEY MOVING E. TEMPS RAPIDLY FALLING OFF AS WE HAVE DROPPED ABOUT 10 DEG IN THE LAST 1-2 HRS. IN LOOKING AT CURRENT DEWPOINTS...WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS THAN IN CURRENT FORECAST. WITH ATMOS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...CLEAR SKIES AND LOW MEAN RH...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW CURRENT EXPECTED NUMBERS. ONLY THING AGAINST THIS IS IF WINDS STAY UP OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO CALM. SO MAY NUDGE DOWN TEMPS A BIT IN UPDATE. OTHERWISE...ZONES LOOK GOOD. MARINE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. OBS IN N LEG SHOW 15-20 KT AND THINK WILL SEE WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...RUC MODEL SHOWS WINDS STAYING UP...ESPECIALLY NRN LEG. WILL LOOK AT LAST OBS BEFORE DECIDING TO CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE SCEC HEADLINE THROUGH THE NIGHT. .JAX... GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MON AFTN GAZ150-164 FL...RED FLAG WARNING MON AFTN FLZ020>022-035-036-040 FIRE WEATHER WATCH MON AFTN FLZ023-030>032-037 ARS fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 930 AM EST SUN MAR 12 2000 CURRENTLY...SURFACE THETA E GRADIENT CORRESPONDS RATHER WELL WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH PLACES FRONT FROM ABOUT TITUSVILLE TO ORLANDO TO TAMPA. THIS IS PICKED UP ON VERY WELL BY LATEST RUC MODEL WHICH PUSHES FRONT TO ABOUT VERO BEACH BY 18Z. THIS WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF SMALL POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN THREE COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS. LOW CLOUDS WERE PUSHING STEADILY SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE...WILL BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS AND UPGRADE SKY CONDITIONS TO (BECOMING) MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MARINE...PRE FRONTAL GRADIENT IS VERY WEAK BUT BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS ARE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. MESO ETA AND LATEST RUC SHOW THIS TIGHTER GRADIENT MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEG. WILL CONTINUE THE EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT...EVEN IN THE SOUTH LEG...BUT WORD THAT SEGMENT FOR INCREASING WINDS MAINLY NORTH PART. .MLB...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR VOLUSIA...LAKE...ORANGE...SEMINOLE COUNTIES. LASCODY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND 615 PM MST SUN MAR 12 2000 WILL UPDATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND REMOVE FLURRIE WORDING FROM CO ZONES LATEST RUC AND LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE IN EAST AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERALL IN WEST. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST...TREND HAS BEEN FOR DISSIPATION. MOSTLY CLEAR SEEMS LIKE A MORE REPRESENTATIVE WORDING THAN CURRENT VERBIAGE. WILL ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS. .GLD...NONE. BARKER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 255 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2000 ...NW FLOW WITH TIMING OF WAVES CONTINUES MAIN PROBLEM... FIRST WAVE EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING PER RUCII. THIS APPEARS A BIT STRONGER ON THE RUCII THAN OTHER MODELS SHOW. PERHAPS BECAUSE DNR WAS MISSING UPPER AIR THIS MRNG...AND SHORT WAVELENGTH OF FAST MOVING WAVES DEPENDENT ON GOOD UA CAPTURE...THEN THERE IS SOME EXPLANATION WHY MODELS NOT DOING TOO WELL WITH THIS ROCKIES WAVE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...BASED ON SATELLITE AND RUCII...WILL MENTION A FEW RW-- THIS EVENING THEN CLEARING AS LIFT DECREASES LATER TONIGHT AND WAVE PASSES BY. NOTHING MUCH ON MONDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE THE PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR PHANTOM CLOUDS THAT OFTEN SHOW UP IN THIS NW FLOW REGIME. BETTER GRASP OF SITUATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SGFNT BUT STILL ONLY MODERATE STRENGTH SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. AVM HAS THIS WAVE DIVING INTO/THRU KS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. CURRENT EFP HAS SOME MENTION OF SHOWERS...AND LOWER POPS REFLECTED IN LATEST GUIDANCE TOO. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SHWRS ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL CONFINE THEM TO THE MRNG...AS APPEARS LIFT/WAVE WILL MV THRU BY AFTN RETURNING SUNSHINE TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO RECOVER NICELY PER H850 THERMAL PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. .TOP...NONE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 930 AM EST SUN MAR 12 2000 SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE ALONG THE MAINE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: FORECAST CONCERNS ARE P-TYPE AND AMOUNTS. WILL RELY ON RUC FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS THIS MODEL HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT SNOW/MIXED PRECIP LINE. AT 14Z SNOW CONTINUED TO FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF A HUL - MLT LINE. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE RUC 543 1000 TO 500 MB THICKNESS AS WELL AS THE 0 850 TEMP. THE RUC ADVECTS THESE CRITICAL VALUES NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. REACHING INTO CENTRAL ZONE 2 AND NORTHERN ZONE 4. PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NORTH OF THIS LINE EXPECT SNOW AND SLEET. SOUTH OF THIS LINE EXPECT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN SOUTH OF HUL. 88D SHOWS ONE AREA OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIP DOWNEAST. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS 2ND AREA OF PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF UVM NEAR THE LOW ITSELF. THIS UVM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES...BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING WARNING IN ZONES 5/6/10/11. ANTICIPATE DROPPING HEADLINES ON LATE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. COASTAL WATERS...AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WINDS HAVE EASED BLO GLW AS LOW CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT AS STRONG CAA AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. WILL BE ISSUING A SNOWFALL PNS SHORTLY. .CAR...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY FOR ZONES 001>006-010-011. GALE WARNING. LULOFS me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1100 PM EST SUN MAR 12 2000 ...INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT/TIMED SNOW FASTER... BASED ON LATEST TRENDS WITH SATELLITE/ RADAR MOSAIC DATA AND SFC OBS... SNOW AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST RATHER QUICKLY. MODEL (RUC 18Z - 00Z AND ETA 12Z/18Z AND 00Z) CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEF BTW 285K AND 290K BRING THE LESS THAN 20 MB AREA INTO WESTERN LOWER AFTER 06Z AND THE LOWER THAN 15 MB AREA IN... WEST OF US-131 BY 12Z. SINCE SNOW IS ALREADY REACHING THE GROUND JUST WEST OF MKE... SEEMS LIKELY SNOW WILL BE FALLING IN MKG/BIV/LDM BTW 09Z AND 12Z. THUS WITH MID CLOUDS ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND WITH TEMPS FALLING VERY SLOWLY THIS EVENING ANYWAY... INCREASED THE LOWS AROUND 5F MOST OF CWA. SEEMS MOST OF THE LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FROM WAA /ISENTROPIC LIFT. THAT IS OVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE GRR CWA. THUS I EXPECT MOST OF THE PCPN TO BE SNOW IN OUR CWA (1000/850 1300 LINE HAS BEEN CLOSE TO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE ALL DAY AND DOES NOT GET N OF I-94 TILL AROUND 18Z. BY THE TIME IT GETS WARM ENOUGH TO RAIN... THE SIGNIFICANT PCPN SHOULD BE OVER. BASED ON CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEF... GREATEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL WITHIN 50 MILES OF INTERSTATE 96 AND MOSTLY BTW 12Z AND 18Z. .GRR...NONE. WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 949 PM EST SUN MAR 12 2000 FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT INCLUDE INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NRN LWR MI WITH THE APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CURRENTLY AT THE SFC...FLOW IS RATHER DISORGANIZED WITH ERN UPR/NRN LWR MI AGAIN SANDWICHED WITHIN A STRETCHING DEFORMATION ZONE. SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS DURING THE EVENING SHOW DIMINISHMENT OF DIURNAL STATO-CU AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE CBL/MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE FOLLOWING SUNSET. MEANWHILE...LATEST IR LOOPS SHOW INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY WORKING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SYSTEM. LATEST (00Z) RUC AND 18Z ETA ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT TO 12Z ETA IN BOTH THE DEGREE OF DYNAMICAL FORCING/850-500 MB MOISTENING AS WELL AS TIMING. WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS NOTED AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF NRN LWR...HIGHEST ALONG AND SW OF A TVC-CAD LINE. 1000-500 MB LAYER-AVERAGE RH CLIMBS TO 70% AND HIGHER BY 12Z FROM TVC-HTL-OSC SOUTH...CORRESPONDING TO WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS POPS MENTIONED FOR LATE TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW BROAD AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP WORKING THROUGH THE SRN HALF OF WI... THOUGH ACCORDING TO THE OBS...MUCH OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET OVER CENTRAL WI. AT THIS POINT...SEE NO REASON TO MAKE CHANGES TO POP FORECAST ACROSS NRN LWR MI FOR THE OVERNIGHT. 18Z ETA AND LATEST RUC Q-G CHARTS SHOW MOST APPRECIABLE LIFT (WEAK LFQ ALONG WITH SUBTLE RRQ JET FORCING) ACROSS SW LOWER MI...CORRESPONDING TO WHERE MEAN LOW-MID LEVEL RH'S ARE PROJECTED TO BE AOA 80%. WITH DEGREE OF LIFT/MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER-MID LAYERS RATHER MARGINAL...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A 30-40% POP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NRN LWR MI. TO THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN UPR MI...RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIRMASS TOO DRY BELOW 600 MB FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. AT MOST...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGHEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY (BETWEEN 15 AND 20) ALONG WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS INHIBITING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. UPDATED ZONES WILL BE SHIPPED BETWEEN 10 AND 1015 PM. .APX...NONE. HURLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 900 PM SUN MAR 12 2000 CURRENT SET OF ZONES APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LOW CLOUDS HAVE APPARENTLY ERODED AWAY COMPLETELY FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SO CLOUD WORDING WILL BE IMPROVED THERE. FOR THAT MATTER...HIGH CLOUDS ARE STILL WELL UPSTREAM OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND RUC SHOWS THAT ANY CIRRUS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z MONDAY. FOR THAT REASON...WILL CHANGE THE WORDING IN THE ZONES TO CLEAR. TEMPS LOOK OK. .GSP...NONE. MOORE sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1000 AM EST SUN MAR 12 2000 HI PRES CONTINUES TO SLO BLD INTO SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AM FROM THE MID MS VLY. CDFNT NOW WL OFSHR BUT TIGHT PRES GRAD STILL REMAINS. GRAD WL RELAX LATER TDA BUT SFC WNDS WL STAY UP IN THE MEANTIME. GD CAA TDA WL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. CAE FCST SOUNDINGS ON ETA...MESOETA...AND RUC...KEEP FCST MAXES IN LWR 60S WITH LAMP GUIDANCE SHOWING MID 50S FOR CAE AND UPPER 50S FOR AGS. CURRENT FCST TEMPS LUK REASONABLE SO DO NOT PLAN TO CHANGE ATTM. SOME COLD AIR STATOCU ALREADY DVLPG OVR AREA NOW SO MOSTLY SUNNY STILL LUKS GD. .CAE...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES THIS AFTERNOON SCZ015-016-018-020-021-022-025>031-035>038-041-GAZ040-063>065-077 FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT SCZ015-016-018-020>023-025>028-030-GAZ040-063>065 BC sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 820 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2000 UPDATED FCST TO REMOVE POPS FOR -SN...TO LOWER MIN TEMPS...AND ADJUST WINDS A BIT. 88D MOSAIC OF SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT RETURNS OVER MOSTLY E ND MOVING INTO MN AT THIS TIME. TAIL END OF THIS AREA COULD BRUSH THROUGH NE PORTION OF ABR CWA...BUT WILL MENTION ONLY POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES AS UPSTREAM OBS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH OF SIGNIFICANCE...AND CIGS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH. A LOOK AT IR LOOP SHOWS LOTS OF CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM...WITH MAIN AREAS OF INTEREST A VORT CENTER DROPPING SE ACROSS S MANITOBA/NE ND...AND ANOTHER VORT CROSSING THROUGH SW SD. ABR CWA SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST RUC SUPPORTS THIS...AND SHOWS NVA DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF CWA. MIN TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA IN NEED OF UPDATE...AS TEMPS AT 02Z MOSTLY AT/NEAR PREVIOUSLY FCST MINS AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE DROPPED GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEG. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND UPDATE LATER IF NECESSARY. .ABR...NONE LORENS sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 950 AM EST SUN MAR 12 2000 LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING AND 850 MB PLOTS SHOW THAT THE AIRMASS IS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN MODELS INDICATED WOULD OCCUR. W-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE INDEED PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SMOKY AND NE MTNS...WITH A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 1/2 INCH REPORTED THUS FAR. FLURRIES ALSO OCCURRING FROM CENTRAL VALLEY NE. LATEST RUC MODEL DOES INDICATE 925-850 MB LAYER STAYING VERY SATURATED INTO THE AFTN OVER SWRN VA/EXTRM NE TN...AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW. VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT (-25 DEG C AT 500 MB) WITH MESOETA CAPES HOLDING AROUND 50 J/KG THIS AFTN. THUS...WILL PROBABLY KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN FOR MTN ZONES...EXCEPT SE TN AND CHEROKEE/CLAY COUNTIES. PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY SEEM APPLICABLE...SINCE ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WRN SLOPES. RAPID CLEARING NOTED EARLIER ON SATELLITE PICS HAS COME TO A SCREECHING HALT...ALTHOUGH THE SEQUATCHIE AND SOUTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES HAVE EXPERIENCED CONSIDERABLE CLEARING. DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF W-NW WINDS AND SUNSHINE THOSE AREAS...WHILE ELSEWHERE I AM CONSIDERING LOWERING MAX TEMP FORECAST BY AT LEAST ONE CATEGORY. UPDATES TO ZONES WILL FOLLOW BY 1030 AM EST. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. TG tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1152 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2000 LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY LOOPS SHOWING DEFORMATION AREA AND ASSOCIATED SNOW SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. TRANSLATION OF THIS WILL MOVE IT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAPS SOUNDINGS UNDERSCORING THE DIFFICULTY THE SNOW IS HAVING OVERCOMING THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. ALL 12Z MODELS... 15Z RUC AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH FORCING TO SUGGEST THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HAPPEN. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES UPWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT. .LSE...NONE. KRC wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 845 PM EST SUN MAR 12 2000 THE RUC AND ETA MODELS INDICATE THAT NORTH WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE NIGHT... AS A SURFACE HIGH CENTER NOW IN KENTUCKY MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE UPDATED TO SHOW THIS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GA STILL LOOK GOOD...BUT WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FROST FORMATION AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED BY PATCHY WORDING. .ATL...NONE. SCHAUB ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1108 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2000 STLT IMAGERY SHOWS SHRT WV THRU UPR MO RVR VLY GETTING READY TO DROP INTO IA. RADAR CURRENTLY HAS PCPN ACRS WRN FA WHICH IS MAINLY VIRGA OR SPRINKLES FM HIGHWAY 30 S. TO THE N SNW CONTD WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY BLO 1/SSM. CALLS ARND INDC THAT SOME MELING IS OCCURRING WITH ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH HWVR SO WE MAY SEE ARND AN INCH BY LATE AFTN IN THOSE AREAS. EVEN THOUGH MSTR IS LTD...THIS PCPN HAS DVLPD IN NICE ISENT LIFT WITH FBY PROFILER SHOWING H85 FLOW OF 35KTS AHD OF SHRT WV. DEFORMATION ZN PCPN STILL WELL N OF FA BUT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF IT DROPPING SWD WITH SHRT WV SO WL KEEP MENTION GOING IN EVEN FCST BUT CONFIDENCE DMSHG ATTM. 16Z SFC ANLYS PLACES LOW JUST NW OF KOFK AND 15Z RUC KEEPS LOW JUST W OF FA BY 00Z SO ADJUSTED TEMPS AND WNDS ACCORDINGLY. .DSM...NONE SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 920 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2000 WEAK S/WV CONT TO MOVE ACROSS S KS THIS EVENING PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL ECHOES. A FEW HAVE BECOME ENHANCED JUST ENOUGH TO GET A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE GROUND ACROSS N OK. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NC OK AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS WAVE MOVE OFF TOWARD THE EAST PRECIP CHANCE WILL DROP TO ZERO AND WILL PROBABLY UPDATE AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TO REMOVE THE POPS. ALSO WIND SHIFT LINE (WEAK FRONT) HAS NOT MOVED MORE THAN A FEW MILES SINCE 4 PM. AND 00Z ETA AND 21Z RUC BOTH SHOW FRONT NOT MOVING MUCH MORE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY 12Z MON. SO WILL MAKE NECCESSARY CHANGES TO WINDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPDATED ZONES TO BE OUT SHORLTY. 30 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 255 AM CST MON MAR 13 2000 FORECAST QUANDARIES...TEMPERATURES. LATEST ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SURFACE LAPS/HAND ANALYSES SHOWING SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER W WV....LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 20S. RUC/UPPER CHART ANALYSES SHOWING MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER W CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW. 00Z MON REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION AND PROGGED EVOLUTION THROUGH 00Z WED GENERALLY SIMILAR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE TO OFF THE NORTHERN U.S ATLANTIC COASTLINE....ALLOWING THE GULF'S MOISTURE TAP TO "OPEN UP". FLOW WILL REMAIN QUASI ZONAL THROUGH PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS AREA BETWEEN 18Z MON-00Z TUE. TODAY...CURRENT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE BRINGING ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDINESS WILL NOT REACH BKN CRITERIA SOUTHERN HALF. THUS...WILL ADDRESS SKY CONDITIONS AS PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS NORTH. TONIGHT...NGM/AVN "HINTING" AT AN INCREASE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP APPROPRIATE ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TUE...MODELS "BACKING OFF" OF PCPN CHANCES. RH PROGS STILL SUPPORTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS EAST. TEMPERATURES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED DURING PERIOD...DO EXPECT A TEMPERATURE "WARMUP"TODAY...BUT NOT AS GREAT ON MONDAY...AND ESPECIALLY NOT AS DRAMATIC AS NGM MOS BELIEVES ON TUESDAY(MID 60S). REASONING SUPPORTED BY QUASI LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUE TRENDS. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN NGM MOS/AVN FAN LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO SCT SKY CONDITIONS. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY... BNA 058/037/062/042 0002 CSV 053/032/057/038 0002 .BNA...NONE. 14 JBW tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1023 AM CST MON MAR 13 2000 MSAS LOOP SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS ALSO EXITING THE REGION. UPSTREAM...SOME LOW/MID LAYER CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA. RUC MODEL HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THIS AGREES WITH VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS. WILL AMEND THE FORECAST TO PRESENT A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY COVER. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW OBSERVED IN A BAND EXTENDING ACROSS AN AREA FROM KRST-KLSE. THIS SHOULD MELT QUICKLY BUT MAY PROHIBIT SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE RISES IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL WAIT FOR 17Z OBS BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT AT THIS TIME THEY LOOK A CATEGORY TOO HIGH. .LSE...NONE. KRC wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 215 PM CST MON MAR 13 2000 ...CURRENT OVERVIEW... 12Z UA ANALYS SHOWS DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SYSTEM APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BE OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER FOR MIDWEEK. ASIDE FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS...RATHER BENIGN PATTERN ACROSS CONUS WITH ONLY A FEW WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING MID PORTION OF COUNTRY IN WEST/NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. LATEST SFC/MSAS ANALYS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH TRAILING WINDSHIFT/TROF EXITING EAST OF CWA. SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO WESTERN IOWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS WORKING EAST AND THINNING WITH BACK EDGE THRU CENTRAL IOWA...AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE AXIS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH CLOUDS AND TEMPS THRU 48 HRS WITH PCPN CHCS/TYPE OF CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE... THEN PCPN WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK. ...SHORT TERM... LATEST RUC IN AGREEMENT WITH BIG THREE IN SHOWING DRYING/SUBSIDENCE TO WORK ACROSS CWA THIS EVENING AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN. SATELLITE TRENDS BACK THIS UP AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPANDING OVER NEBRASKA WITH RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SOME ECHOES... THOUGH CHECK OF SFC OBS REVEAL LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND. MODEL RELH PROGS SHOW SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO WILL GO WITH PTCLDY WORDING. MODELS DEPICT ELONGATED RIBBON OF VORTICITY FROM NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY WITH MAIN WAVE OF CONCERN...NOW OVER WYOMING...TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF CWA ON TUESDAY AS MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP TO OUR SOUTH (NEBRASKA THRU MISSOURI). ALL MODELS SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WEAKER WITH WAVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS SHOWING WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING OVER CWA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWERING TO AOB 50 MB BY 12Z MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF RIVER. BULK OF LIFT THOUGH TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES INTO MISSOURI AND CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN ILLINOIS DURING DAY SO WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER...THOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH AVN WETTEST SHOWING .05 TO .10 INCH SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA BETWEEN 12Z-18Z TUES. PCPN TYPE TRICKY WITH MODELS DIVERGING ON STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM. NGM IS VERY AGRESSIVE WARMING H85 TEMPS TO ABOVE 2 C ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA BY 12Z WHILE AVN/ETA NOT AS AGRESSIVE KEEPING 0 C ISOTHERM SOUTH OF QUAD CITIES. ALL MODELS CONTINUE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING DAY TUESDAY SO ANY LIGHT FROZEN PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO LIQUID. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE CRUCIAL. 1000-850 THICKNESS FROM NGM AND AVN INDICATE MAINLY RAIN WITH ETA SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN MORNING NORTH OF CEDAR RAPIDS TO QUAD CITIES. FEEL NGM TOO AGRESSIVE WITH WARM AIR AND ETA A TAD COOL GIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH THAT IN MIND FAVORING AVN THERMAL FIELDS WHICH SUGGESTS MAINLY A COLD RAIN AFFECTING AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH PERHAPS SOME WET FLAKES/SPRINKLES. LOW TEMP FCST ALSO TRICKY TONIGHT WITH CLEARING THIS EVENING AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL SEE MIN TEMPS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE STEADYING OUT AND LEANING TOWARD WARMER FAN GUIDANCE. ...LONG TERM... ROLLER COASTER RIDE ON TEMPS. SYSTEM TO SWEEP ACROSS AREA DURING FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE AND PARTIAL CLEARING MAINLY WEST OF RIVER DURING AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WITH NGM AGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IT THRU DURING DAY WHILE AVN/ETA HOLD IT TO OUR WEST AND WASH IT OUT LATE DAY/EVENING AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS THRU THE PLAINS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE ROCKIES. AVN A TAD QUICKER WITH NEXT SYSTEM THAN ETA/NGM AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED GIVEN DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING AND MOVING E/SE ACROSS MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING AFTERNOON...EXITING DURING THE EVENING. WINDS FAIRLY BREEZY AHEAD OF FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HELPING TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR NORTHWARD. WILL STICK WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXES WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS/PCPN. BULK OF PCPN TO OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY GIVEN TIMING AND DYNAMICS...THOUGH PROGGED INSTABILITY NOT GREAT. FOR NOW WILL THROW IN MENTION OF THUNDER IN SOUTHERN ZONES. TURNING SHARPLY COLDER AND WINDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS H85 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES CRASH. ...EXTENDED(THU-SAT)... UPPER TROF SWINGS THRU CWA THURSDAY WITH MRF SHOWING CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST DURING AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COLD AIR AND APPROACHING TROF SUPPORT CHC OF MORNING LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF RIVER FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE SFC/ALOFT SWEEP ACROSS AREA FRIDAY RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER ROCKIES FRIDAY WITH MRF BRINGING IT THRU LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THICKNESS FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY WITH A MIX OR PERHAPS CHANGEOVER TO RAIN INDICATED DURING AFTERNOON AS MRF AGGRESSIVE WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS. MRF SHOWING DECENT WARMUP LATE IN WEEKEND THRU MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COORD WITH KDMX...THANX .DVN... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. M^2 il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 400 PM EST MON MAR 13 2000 PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS FCST PERIOD ACROSS THE GRTLKS/ UPR MIDWEST WITH FAST NW FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY DVLPNG GREATER AMPLITUDE AS POLAR VORTEX OVR HUDSON BAY ELONGATES TO THE SOUTH BY 72 HRS AND BEYOND. FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVG ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE XTNDNG FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES TO UPR MISS VALLEY/ WRN GRTLKS MOVG ALONG MN/ONTARIO BORDER ATTM. POCKETS OF VRY LGT SNOW PER DLH/MQT 88D/S ARE ASSCTD WITH VRY WEAK ISENT LIFT IN WAA PATTERN OVR NRN MN/XTREME NW WIS COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW LVL CONVERGENCE PER RUC STREAMLINE ANAL. AIRMASS IN THE LOW LVLS OVR UPR MI VRY DRY HWVR PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT SFC DWPTS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. AS A RESULT AS WEAK SFC LOW PASSES N OF LK SUPERIOR TNGT AND DRAGS TROF ACROSS U.P. FM WEST TO EAST XPECT BRIEF DURATION VRY LGT SNOW/FLURRY EVENT. DRY LOW LVLS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL TO THE NUISANCE CATEGORY WITH ONLY A LGT DUSTING AT BEST. NEXT IN SERIES OF WEAK SFC WAVES CURRENTLY FORMING OVR NODAK WILL SLIDE ESE IN RESPONSE TO UPR LVL VORT IN NW FLOW ALOFT AFFECTING UPR MI TUES. AS VORT SHEARS OUT UPR LVL HGTS FALL 24-36 HRS WITH SOMEWHAT MORE IMPRESSIVE LOBE OF MOISTURE ADVECTING ESE ON I285 K THETA SFC. FORCING VERY MINIMAL HWVR WITH NEUTRAL PRES ADVECTION ON 285K SFC AND BEST DIFF PVA WITH VORT REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. VORT AND ASSCTD SFC CDFNT DOES DRAG DOWN SLGTLY COLDER AIR LATER ON TUES WITH LAKE TO 850 MB DELTA-T/S LOWERING TO 13-14 DEG C. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IN 290 FLOW WITH PASSAGE OF SFC BNDRY AND UPR LVL SUPPORT BEFORE INVERSION HGTS LWR LATE IN THE DAY. WITH INVERSIONS DROPPING TO 4K FT BY 00Z AND THERMAL INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINAL (DELTA T/S REMAINING ARND 14 DEG C) DO NOT SEE PURE LAKE EFFECT EVENT HAPPENING UNTIL COLDER AIR COMES DOWN AFTER NEXT MORE POTENT WAVE WED-WED NGT. WILL CONFINE MENTION OF SNOW TO NUISANCE CATEGORY AGAIN TUES DESPITE WEAK Q-G FRONTOGENESIS ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER MAINLY THE KEWEENAW. WITH GOOD MID LVL DRYING AND MODEST SUBSIDENCE AND ONLY MARGINAL LAKE INSTABILITY TUES NGT WILL FCST ONLY LAKE CLDS AND FLURRIES NR THE LAKE WITH CONSIDERABLE BREAKS INLAND. XPECT MIN TEMPS WILL BE WIDE RANGING WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE MOVG OVHD AND VARYING CLD CONDITIONS. MOST INTERESTING SCENARIO SETTING UP FOR WED WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT UPR LVL VORT MAX MOVG ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH CLIPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. STRONG ISENT LIFT DVLPNG IN STRONG LOW LVL WAA ON I290-I285 THETA SFCS COMBINED WITH GOOD Q-G FORCING ASSCTD WITH DIFF PVA AHEAD OF VORT MAX AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF APRCHNG UPR LVL JET STREAK SHUD CAUSE PRECIP TO BREAK OUT OVR THE FAR WRN U.P. ARND DAYBREAK WED. SHALLOW ABV FREZ LAYER WARM ADVECTS INTO THE SRN U.P. DURING THE DAY COMBINED WITH DIURNAL MID MARCH HEATING COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVR ABT THE SRN 1/3 OF THE U.P. THURS. MODELS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AS TO DEGREE OF WARMING AND SPEED OF THE VORT. HAVE LEANED TWRD SLGTLY WARMER AVN/ETA SOLN FOR TEMPS/THICKNESS/PRECIP TYPE FCST AND SLGTLY SLOWER ETA/NGM SOLN FOR TIMING OF SFC LOW/UPR LVL VORT GIVEN AVN/S RECENT TENDENCY TO OVRDVLP UPR LVL VORTS. HWVR LATER FCSTS WILL HAVE TO REFINE WED'S FCST. .MQT...NONE. ED F mi NORTHEAST MONTANA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 921 AM MST MON MAR 13 2000 UPDATE PLANNED. WK SFC TROF ACROSS NODAK AND E MT ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR SHORTWAVE OVER E MT BROUGHT SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO E MT AROUND DAWN. DYNAMICS AND ACTIVITY HAS NOW SHIFTED E/WARD FROM MT. 12Z ETA PLACES NEMONT BETWEEN PAIR OF JET AXES...OVER IDAHO/SW MT AND OVER ALBERTA/SASK... WITH BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT IN THESE AREAS...IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD FEATURES AS WELL. EXTRAPOLATION OF CLOUDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EARLY PDS OF ETA AND LATEST RUC KEEPING POS OMEGA FIELD AND WK VORT MAINLY IN SASK WITH ONLY FLURRIES OVER XTRM NEMONT. GGW SOUNDING SUPPORTS WARMER MAXIMA MOST AREAS THAN IN CURRENT ZONES ...PLUS MANY LOCATIONS ALREAD VCNTY OF FCST MAXIMA. WILL ADJUST FIRST PD TEMPS UP AND KEEP MO CLOUDY ONLY FOR NE ZONES CLOSER TO JET IN CANADA AND PER CURRENT SAT IMAGERY. LATER PDS LOOK OK. GGW 113 043/020/037 GDV 112 045/021/039 SECORA mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 246 PM CST MON MAR 13 2000 FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHCS FOR TUE AND NEXT WAVE APPCHG RGN FOR WED. ALL MDLS IN GUD AGREEMENT IN TAKING NOSE OF H3 JET MAX ACRS NRN WI ON TUE...WITH AVN FASTER THAN ETA OR NGM. BEST UPR DIVERGNC STAYS NORTH OF CWA. DIFFERING SOLUTIONS BEGIN AT H8 AND BLO BASED ON WHERE H8 COLD AIR AND SFC BNDRY SET UP IN WAKE OF TDY/S DEPARTING LO...ANALYZED NR MTW AT 18Z. TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH WED WAVE. NGM AND AVN COOLER TNT AT H8 THAN ETA...BUT BOTH BRING 0C LINE AT H8 BACK INTO FAR SRN WI TUE IN WAA AHD OF WK WAVE ASSOC WITH UPR JET MAX. ETA SLOWER TO RETURN WRMR H8 AIR ON TUE...AND NOT AS AGRESSIVE AS AVN WITH WRM PROD OF AIR IN ADVANCE OF WAVE ON WED. DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN TEMP GUIDANCE..WITH AN 8 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPS FOR WED BETWEEN COOLER NGM AND WRMR AVN. 18Z RUC MORE IN LINE WITH COOLER ETA/AVN 2M TEMPS THRU 06Z TNT. IN THE EARLY GOING...AVN SFC FEATURES VERIFYING WELL...WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS THRU 48 HRS IN GNRL PREFERRED...GIVEN FAST FLOW ALOFT. NGM/AVN BRING SOME UVV AND MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS CWA TMRW WITH SFC TROF. ETA Q VECTOR CONVERGNC AXIS CROSSES CWA DURING DAY...THO MAXES ARE NORTH AND SOUTH OF CWA AND IT DOES NOT GENERATE QPF. AVN/NGM TIME SECTIONS HINT AT PCPN ALONG FNT SO WL KP 30 POP GOING FOR -SHRA FWC TOO HI WITH MAX TEMPS TUE...BUT 2M TEMPS DO HINT AT ERLY HI/S AHD OF TROF. WL GO WITH A BLEND OF FAN/FWC. NGM BLDS SFC HI MUCH FARTHER SOUTH BEHIND TROF TMRW...WITH SFC BNDRY INTO IL. AS LOW WINDS UP FOR WED TO OUR NORTHWEST...RETURN FLO WILL BRING WRMTH BACK INTO CWA. FWC TOO COOL FOR WED..EXCEPT WITH SE FLO ALONG LK MICH SHORE. HOWEVER...AVN H8 TEMPS MAY BE OVER DONE. WL LOWER FAN GUIDNC A NOTCH FOR WED. BETTER FORCING TO OUR NORTH FOR WED...BUT 50 POP WARRANTED WITH TROF PASSAGE. .UWNMS...KUDOS TO THE UWNMS MODEL FOR THE FINE JOB IT DID WITH THE PCPN FIELDS FOR LAST NIGHT/S SNOW/RAIN EVENT. THE 00Z AND 12Z 3/12/00 RUNS PLACED THE GNRL PRECIP AREA WELL...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW CNTRED OVR THE NRN CWA...AND PINPOINTED THE LINGERING PCPN OVR FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN THIS MORNING. 2M TEMPS HAVE BEEN DOING WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS. TODAY/S 12Z RUN ONLY IN THRU 42 HRS. MODEL KPS PCPN ACRS FAR NORTH TMRW .MKX...NONE. 0...0...0...0 $$ REM wi