AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 825 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2000 LATEST MSAS SFC PRESSURE PLOT SHOWS A WEAK SFC REFLECTION UNDER AN AREA OF PVA SEEN ON THE 00Z RUC. THESE FEATURES ARE GENERATING SOME MID CLOUDS THAT ARE CROSSING OVER THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO NORTHERN MN AND VERIFIED BY SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT. WIDELY SCATTERED AREAS OF -SHSN HAVE BEEN NOTED IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL UPDATE AND INTRODUCE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ZONE GROUP. .DLH...NONE. GSF mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1000 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2000 MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE SNOW SHOWER BAND AT THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DEPARTING VORT MAX OVER UPR MI AND NRN WI HAS A TRAILING WEAK IMPULSE THAT PRODUCED THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE RUC SHOWS THAT THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL BE WORKING NEWD ALONG THE NORTH SHORE BUT SATELLITE PIX INDICATE THE TOPS ARE WARMING SOMEWHAT. WE WILL KEEP SOME FLURRIES UP THE NORTH SHORE AND IN THE WISCONSIN LK SUPR ZONES. SFC WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE SE WHICH WOULD WEAKEN THE WI SNOW BUT KEEP THE N SHORE REGION GOING FOR A WHILE. BY AFTN...A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD END THE SNOW FROM W TO E. ELSEWHERE...CURRENT FCST APPEARS ON TRACK. .DLH...NONE. CS mn EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 850 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2000 HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW...IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND EXIT REGION OF H3 JET...CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS OSAGE COUNTY THIS EVENING. CALLS TO LOCAL OFFICIALS AND CONTACTS CONFIRM AROUND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OSAGE COUNTY...WITH ABOUT 1/2 INCH IN PAWNEE COUNTY. LATEST ETA/RUC SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...SUGGESTING HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS NRN TIER OF COUNTIES. LOCATION OF CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...BUT WILL INCREASE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES. WILL ALSO BUMP WINDS UP SOME. UPDATED ZONES SHOULD BE OUT BETWEEN 900-915 PM. FCSTID = 18 .TUL... AR...NONE. OK...SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT ZNS 54>59. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 900 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2000 SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY DRIFT INTO EXTREME INLAND DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGT...SO WILL KEEP IN MENTION OF TSTMS. MID DECK OF CLOUDS FROM INLAND TSTMS HAVE MOVED TO THE COAST AND COVER MOST OF COLLETON DORCHESTER BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES SO WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THAT AREA. SLIGHT REWORDING OF TEMPS SINCE EXPECT TEMPS FAIRLY UNIFORM FROM COAST TO INLAND ACROSS N CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES. CWF...MAINLY A SLY COMPONENT OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KT. WILL FOLLOW RUC/MAPS GUIDANCE AND INCREASE FLOW TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT AND INITIALIZE SECOND PERIOD A BIT LOWER S CAROLINA WATERS FOR CONTINUITY. DIRECTIONS FM SSE GEORGIA WATERS AND SSW NRN WATERS...EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST PERIOD. .CHS... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. SLB/RVT sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 227 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2000 TSTMS ALREADY POPPING UP THIS AFTN MAINLY W AND SW OF CAE. STMS BEING FUELED BY MID-LVL S/W AS SHOWN ON LATEST RUC. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO EVENING HRS AS S/W LIFTS NE. MAIN FNT STILL TO OUR W ON W SIDE OF APLCNS. MODELS IN GD AGREEMENT SHOWING 500 MB TROF LIFTING OUT OF SRN ROCKIES AND MOVG EWRD TO ERN SEABOARD BY SUN AM. TROF WL TAKE ON A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO OUR CWA. WL KEEP HI CHC POP FOR MAINLY SHWRS TONITE BUT TSTM PSBL SINCE AMS WL REMAIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. AS FNT GETS CLOSER ON SAT...AMS WL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING. BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION LATE SAT AM AND ERLY SAT AFTN. AFTER THAT TIME PD...850 MB TEMP ADVECTION BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL. FNT SHUD MOV OFSHR BY ERLY SUN AM WITH CLEARING LATE. SUN LUKS MOSTLY SUNNY AS HI PRES MOVES IN BEHIND FNT. WL USE GENL BLEND OF LCL SCHEMES AND FCST GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. ERLY PART OF XTND FCST LUKS DRY. FAST MOVG CDFNT WL APPROACH AREA ON WED BRINGING CHC OF SHWRS. MSTR APPEARS A LITTLE LIMITED ATTM. PRELIM CCFS CAE TU 57/76/47/60/33 465 AGS TU 56/77/46/62/32 464 .CAE...NONE. BC sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1020 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2000 AIRMASS HAS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. GOES LI PRODUCT SHOWING LIS -1/-3 OVER CAE CWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS GENERALLY LACKING EXCEPT AT THE SURFACE WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP TO 60. ETA/RUC KEEP LIS -2/-3 THIS AFTERNOON. ETA CAPE UP CLOSE TO 1200 THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE THE 20 PERCENT CHANCE. WILL SAY MAINLY A SHOWER OR TWO BUT A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. THE ATMOSPHERE DOESN'T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK OK. .CAE...NONE. TTH sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 957 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2000 CONVECTION ACROSS ALABAMA AND NORTH GEORGIA WEAKENED AS IT ENTERED SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR THAT BLANKETS OUR CWFA THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SKIRT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. RUC SHOWING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOLING QUITE A BIT IN NORTHWEST CWFA...CLOSEST TO APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE AND IN VICININITY OF STALLED FRONT. UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES BY EVENING AS SOUTHERN STREAM GETS MORE ACTIVE...AND TROF OVER THE ROCKIES DROPS SOUTHEAST. AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGHER THETA-E AIR OVER ALABAMA AND GEORGIA PROGD TO INVADE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO-ETA VERY AGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO CWFA BY LATE AFTERNOON...RUC A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE. MODIFIED FFC SOUNDING WUD SUPPORT THUNDER CHANCES. ALL IN ALL... CURRENT FORECAST LUKS GUD...WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN MOST ZONES. CIRRUS OVERSPREADING EASTERN ZONES AT PRESENT...WILL CONTINUE PARTLY SUNNY TRENDS THERE AND MAY BUMP UP AFTERNOON MAXES...WITH THICKNESS SCHEME SUGGESTING LOWER 80S POSSIBLE THERE. .GSP...NONE. BURRUS sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 936 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2000 ...MAIN CONCERN THIS UPDATE ARE PRECIP CHANCES... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. WITH THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT SURROUNDING SOUNDINGS AND MODIFYING THEM SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY...SO THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NEW RUC MODEL SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE SPAWNING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED REPORT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SITUATION...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE THIS MORNING WORDING AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. PDK tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1014 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2000 ** UPDATED...00Z ETA OFFERED NO SURPRISES AND GEM A LTL COLDER. STILL LOOKS LIKE MSTLY SNW NNY WITH A CHGOVR LKLY UP THRU CNTRL AND PARTS OF NE VT LT SAT NGT THEN CHGG BACK TO SNW DURG SUN. ETA SAYS BTV ON THE FENCE BTWN ALL SNW AND CHGOVR. BULK OF QPF THRU 06Z WHICH WUD FALL AS MSTLY SNW. SO WL BE HOISTING WATCH FOR N ZNS FOR SAT NGT/SUN. WL LV OUT S VT AND ORANGE CNTY FOR NOW. MOSAIC RDR SHWG AREA OF LGT SNW ASSCD WITH MID LVL S/WV MOVG EWD ACRS FAR N ZNS. PCPN IS PARTLY VIRGA AS LLVLS ARE RTHR DRY SO PREV FCST OF FLRYS STILL LOOKS GOOD. TOOK OUT MNTN OF PRTL CLRG LTR TNGT AS CLDS WDSPRD ACRS RGN AND RUC/18Z ETA KEEP ABNDNT H8 MSTR IN PLC OVRNGT. RAISED MIN TMPS IN A FEW AREAS TNGT DUE TO CLD CVR. REGARDING UPCOMING STORM...DVRGNC IN MDL SOLNS MAKES FOR A DFCLT FCST. AVN SUGGESTING BULK OF QPF IN FORM OF RA...WHILE ETA SUGGESTS MSTLY SNW FOR FAR N AND W ZNS. EVEN NGM WHICH IS WRMR THAN ETA POINTING TO MORE SNW FOR BDR LOCNS. GEM WRMR THAN ETA/NGM WITH BEST CHC FOR ALL SNW ST LAW VLY WITH REST OF N FA LKLY SEEING CHG TO RA. 18Z ETA SGFNTLY SLOWER THAN 12Z ETA WITH LOW OVR ERN TN AT 00Z SAT WHICH SUGGESTS LTR STARTING TM BUT PCPN CONTG WELL INTO SUN. QPF LGTR BUT COLD ENUF FOR ALL SNW W ZNS AND IN VT ALG AND N OF A LN FM BTV TO N OF 1V4. DONT HAV A GOOD FEELING WITH NO WATCHES UP ATTM AS POTL FOR SGFNT SNWFALL PARTS OF N FA. WL WAIT ON 00Z ETA/GEM BFR RELEASING ZNS AND MAY UPGRADE TO WATCH NNY AND PSBLY N VT IF NEW ETA/GEM FVRBL. .BTV...WINTER STORM WATCH SAT NGT/SUN NYZ026>031-034-035-VTZ001>009. KJC vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 847 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2000 MOSAIC RDR SHWG AREA OF LGT SNW ASSCD WITH MID LVL S/WV MOVG EWD ACRS FAR N ZNS. PCPN IS PARTLY VIRGA AS LLVLS ARE RTHR DRY SO PREV FCST OF FLRYS STILL LOOKS GOOD. TOOK OUT MNTN OF PRTL CLRG LTR TNGT AS CLDS WDSPRD ACRS RGN AND RUC/18Z ETA KEEP ABNDNT H8 MSTR IN PLC OVRNGT. RAISED MIN TMPS IN A FEW AREAS TNGT DUE TO CLD CVR. REGARDING UPCOMING STORM...DVRGNC IN MDL SOLNS MAKES FOR A DFCLT FCST. AVN SUGGESTING BULK OF QPF IN FORM OF RA...WHILE ETA SUGGESTS MSTLY SNW FOR FAR N AND W ZNS. EVEN NGM WHICH IS WRMR THAN ETA POINTING TO MORE SNW FOR BDR LOCNS. GEM WRMR THAN ETA/NGM WITH BEST CHC FOR ALL SNW ST LAW VLY WITH REST OF N FA LKLY SEEING CHG TO RA. 18Z ETA SGFNTLY SLOWER THAN 12Z ETA WITH LOW OVR ERN TN AT 00Z SAT WHICH SUGGESTS LTR STARTING TM BUT PCPN CONTG WELL INTO SUN. QPF LGTR BUT COLD ENUF FOR ALL SNW W ZNS AND IN VT ALG AND N OF A LN FM BTV TO N OF 1V4. DONT HAV A GOOD FEELING WITH NO WATCHES UP ATTM AS POTL FOR SGFNT SNWFALL PARTS OF N FA. WL WAIT ON 00Z ETA/GEM BFR RELEASING ZNS AND MAY UPGRADE TO WATCH NNY AND PSBLY N VT IF NEW ETA/GEM FVRBL. .BTV...NONE. KJC vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 326 AM EST SAT MAR 11 2000 COORD WITH CLE/ILN/IND...MISFWA AVBL... SYS ACRS MO OZARKS MOVG ENE 40KTS AND WL CONT UP OH VLY AND BEGIN TO GET CAUGHT UP INTO THE PERSISTANT JAMES BAY VORTEX THROUGH F30. ETA APPRS A BIT WEAK...AVN TOO FAST SPCLY LATE AND UL JET TOO FAR NORTH...THOUGH DPGROG/DT SHWNG AVN COMING ARND TO ETA/NGM. FAVORED NGM WITH BEST AGREEMENT WITH LTST RUC. PERHAPS SOME PL EARLY AT PCPN ONSET PER WET BULB PROFILES 850-800 MB SE FA BUT EVAPORATIVE/DIABATIC COOLING FAVORS QUICK CHNG TO ALL SNOW. DRIER AIR IN 700-850MB LYR EARLY BECMG SATURATED BTWN 15Z-18Z WITH SNOW DEVLOPING SRN FA...BY MID AFTN OH ZNS. WL MENTION MORE TIMING IN WSW STMNT. FAR NWRN FA DY AIR SFC-5KFT MAY NEVER BE OVERCOME WITH VIRGA AND JUST CHC POPS LTL/NO ACCUM. AWIPS PT TIME-HEIGHT X-SCTNS AND I290 SFC FAVORING FAR SERN FA WITH BEST POTNL OF HVY SNW...5-7 INCHES WITH DEEP 3-4G/KG 18Z-00Z 2-3G/KG 00Z-06Z. COOLER THAN NGM MOS FOR HIGHS...TODAY WITH LLVL EVAP COOLING AND DY2 SPCLY SERN ZNS WITH SNOW COVER. NEXT PCPN CHCS LT SUN NIGHT/MON WITH CLIPPER. .IWX...WINTER STORM WARNING INZ034-OHZ025 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INZ026-027-032-033-OHZ016-024 MURPHY in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 337 AM EST SAT MAR 11 2000 MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR AND POSSIBLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS UPPER LOW NEAR THE NE OK/NW AR BORDER BEGINING TO INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BEND. AS A RESULT...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL MO SOUTH OF STL IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. ETA/NGM SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE WITH THIS SITUATION IN SHIFTING THIS DEFORMATION ZONE INTO CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STILL TAKING PLACE OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. MAIN SURFACE LOW IS STILL OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING NORTHEAST TO EASTERN TN. THIS LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY THIS EVENING. SATELLITE AND LATEST RUN FROM THE MESO ETA/RUC DEPICT THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ETA/NGM 00Z SOLUTION. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS WILL CAUSE THE HEAVY SNOW BAND BE FURTHER NORTH IN CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL INDIANA. WE ARE GOING TO MENTION A BUFFER ZONE FOR OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY SINCE THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE SOONER THERE AND THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE COMMA HEAD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AT THE PRESENT TIME...EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND AGEOSTROPHIC COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP COOL THINGS OFF SOME THIS MORNING. AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PASSES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...DEEPER COLDER AIR ADVECTION SHOULD MOVE IN AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG A SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE SHORTLIVED. TONIGHT THE LATEST MESO ETA SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM KICKING OUT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STILL IN PLACE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE PRESENT THIS EVENING AS COMMA HEAD CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH. WE ARE LOOKING AT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREAS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE DAYBREAK. WE FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE. SUNDAY THE FLOW TENDS TO FLATTEN OUT AGAIN WHICH SHOULD KEEP US DRY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BEGIN MODERATING BACK TO NORMAL. .SDF...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUBOIS...ORANGE...CRAWFORD...PERRY WASHINGTON...SCOTT...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTN AND EVNG. COX ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1005 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2000 BACKING FLOW UNDERWAY ACRS THE TN/OH VLYS...AS STG PACKET OF ENERGY DROPS INTO OK. SHUD SEE A RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN/TSTMS OVNGT ACRS SRN PART OF FA...AS WAA/ISENTROPIC LFTG KICKS IN. IN ADDITION... FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. RAIN SHUD MAKE IT UP INTO NRN FA BY MRNG...WHICH NEW RUC & ETA SUPPORT. QUICK PEEK AT NEW ETA RUN TNGT SUGGESTS TRACK OF SFC AND UPR SYS'S (IN COMPARISON TO 12Z FRIDAY RUN) JUST A HAIR TO THE NW. STILL WIL BE AN AWEFULLY CLOSE CALL FOR SIG SNOW PARTS OF SRN IND...AND WATCH LOOKS APPROPRIATE. OTHERWISE...QUICK CHANGE FM RAIN TO WET SNOW N-CNTRL KY ALSO ON TARGET...AS UPR LOW TRACKS NR AND THERMAL FIELDS COLLAPSE. .SDF...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR DUBOIS...ORANGE...CRAWFORD AND PERRY COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTN AND EVNG. STUREY ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 255 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2000 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS IS THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS AFFECTS MAY JUST MISS OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH. THIS UPPER TROF SWINGS EASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SAT/SAT NIGHT. DOWN AT THE SFC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON LIFTS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUN. FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (TON-SAT-SAT NGHT-SUN) ARE MAINLY TIED TO CLOUD COVER WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY STAYING SOUTH. MODELS ALL FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN FEATURES...BUT HV OPTED TO FOLLOW THE ETA...WITH ITS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. TONIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW IS HANGING ON THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING. CYCLONIC FLOW IS AIDING IN THE FORMATION OF STRATOCU IN LOCATIONS WHERE SYSTEM CLOUDS ARE EXITING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDING IN AT 925MB TONIGHT WILL GO WITH A BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FCST. LATEST RUC IS HINTING AT DRYING AT 925MB/S AS WELL. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN TH NORTH TO AROUND 20 IN THE SOUTH. ON SATURDAY...SYSTEM CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WAVE LIFTS UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL WORD THE FORECAST AS BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SO WILL HAVE ZONE BREAK THERE TO MENTION SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO THE SNOW ON THE NW EDGE...AND FEEL THE GOOD ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE GRR FCST AREA. WILL LINGER FLURRIES IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO THE EAST. PLAN ON USING A BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AND NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...WILL NOT TAKE LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU INTO TOO MUCH CONSIDERATION...AS THE BULK OF IT SHOULD REMAIN OUT OVER THE LAKE TON-SAT-SAT NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...FCST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE WAVE OFF TO THE EAST...AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. WITH POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THE EASTERN SYSTEM AND CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM NOT TO MENTION LAKE STRATOCU POSSIBILITIES WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND USE A PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR SUNDAY. WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM NGM MOS TEMPS IN THE SAT-SUN TIME FRAME. DUKESHERER .EXTENDED DISCUSSION... FIRST OF A COUPLE OF RAPID MOVING CLIPPERS WILL AFFECT THE FA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH THE SECOND IMPINGING ON THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. EUROPEAN AND MRF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MOVING THE FIRST COUPLED WAVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE SECOND WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF HUDSON BAY AND UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE ROCKIES AS CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS VCNTY CA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MWH .GRR...NONE. mi UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH 245 AM MST SAT MAR 11 2000 SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. DISCUSSION...WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OREGON TRAILING BACK INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA. RUC SHOWS FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST UTAH LATE THIS MORNING. ETA THEN MOVES FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE NEAR LOCATION OF 300 MB WESTERLY JET WHICH ALSO SAGS SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY. DYNAMICS WEAK WITH SYSTEM WITHOUT ANY STRONG WAVES MOVING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT SETTLES SOUTH. WILL TONE DOWN WEEKEND POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS A NOTCH WITH MORNING PACKAGE. WILL LOOK AT EXTENDED DETAILS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS NEW GUIDANCE. OVERALL THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS FINE CONSIDERING NEW MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS. EC HAS MORE AMPLITUDE THAN MRF BUT SHORTWAVE TIMING LOOKS SIMILAR. SLC 121 CDC 012 GIBSON .SLC...NONE. ut AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 950 AM EST SAT MAR 11 2000 AT 14 UTC AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE TO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA...WHILE NON-SEVERE STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THESE STORMS WERE FORMING ALONG A STRONG MESOSCALE THETA-E GRADIENT WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE VALUES. THE 12 UTC TLH SOUNDING WAS CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVEL AND FAIRLY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SUDDEN DRYING AT THE SURFACE TO SEE IF WE BREAK THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...SOUNDING DATA...AND THE LATEST RUC...LOOKS LIKE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS (ASSOCIATED WITH BOW ECHOES) WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR OUR AREA. CURRENT ZONES LOOK GOOD AND WILL ONLY MAKE COSMETIC CHANGES. LATEST MARINE OBS SHOW ENTIRE AREA BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT I AM RELUCTANT TO TAKE THE ADVISORY DOWN JUST AFTER IT HAS BEEN ISSUED. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK THIS AFTERNOON. .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...SCA AQQ-DESTIN. FOURNIER fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 938 AM EST SAT MAR 11 2000 CURRENTLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING MID 60S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND THERE WAS A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW JET STREAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM LINE UP WELL WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE. FORECAST...MODELS ALL SHOW JET STREAK MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF MAX HEATING WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WEAKENING. AREA OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF POLAR JET WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME POSITIVE AREA BUT WITH CENTRAL FLORIDA BEING BETWEEN LARGE SCALE FORCING FEATURES AND NO EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMING...FIGURE THAT ANY AFTERNOON CELLS THAT FORM WILL HAVE LOW COVERAGE. HENCE THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE THIS EVENING STILL LOOKS GOOD. MAY HAVE TO MAKE SOME MINOR WORDING CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FEW CELLS THAT ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ...BUT DO NOT FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MARINE...WINDS ARE WITHIN BOUNDS OF CURRENT FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE DIRECTION IS SOUTHERLY AND THE 12Z ETA CONTINUES THIS. PLAN TO KEEP AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT. .MLB...NONE. LASCODY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 915 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2000 SPC HAS JUST PUT OUT TORNADO WATCH BOX 89 UNTIL 1 AM CST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SE HALF OF ALABAMA AND THE NW PART OF GA. THIS INCLUDES COFFEE...DALE AND GENEVA IN OUR AREA. SQUALL LINE TO THE WEST HAS BEEN OUTRUNNING EARLIER BOXES AND BHM HAS ISSUED A SLEW OF TOR & SVR WARNINGS. MESO-ETA & RUC SUGGEST BEST DEEP LYR SHEAR TO REMAIN OUT TO OUR WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS AND NRN AL OVERNIGHT. MSAS 01Z CONTINUES TO SHOW MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIS -4 ACROSS SE AL. THINKING IS THAT SQUALL LINE TO THE WEST MAY MAKES ITS WAY INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE BOX AFTER MIDNIGHT... INCLUDING SE AL. WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE LINE OF STORMS WILL HAVE GOOD AIRMASS TO WORK ON BUT LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS OUR AREA IS UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR/LIFTING MECHANISMS ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES. WILL KEEP A CLOSE ON THE RADARS HOWEVER. ZONE UPDT SENT TO INCLUDE WATCH BOX AND OTHER MINOR TWEAKS. KEPT IN MENTION OF FOG. THINK IT SHOULD REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPEC CNTRL AND ERN ZONES IF CIRRUS CANOPY HOLDS OFF. MARINE: WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 10 PM OBS BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES. .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. MRV fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 915 PM MST FRI MAR 10 2000 ADJUSTED FIRST PERIOD WIND FORECASTS IN ZONES BASED ON LATEST RUC2 OUTPUT. 38 .ABQ...NONE. nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1005 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2000 MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING DEALS WITH TEMPS AND CLOUDS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA...BUT SAT IMAGE SHOWS THAT IT IS THINNING AS IT GOES. NEW ETA/RUC CONCUR ON WINDS TURNING MORE TO THE EAST AS NEXT LOW DROPS DOWN FRONT RANGE LATER TONIGHT. AS CLOUDS THIN...SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUDS SLIDING OVER CWA IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM. NEW ETA SFC TEMPS...AND FLP TEMPS...SHOW THAT HIGHS MIGHT NEED TO BE DROPPED A TOUCH TODAY. WITH ONLY DIM SUNSHINE TODAY AND WEAK WINDS...WILL DROP TEMPS ALL AREAS A NOTCH AND GO MOSTLY CLOUDY. ALSO PLAYED WITH THE WINDS A TAD. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. .ABR...NONE. HINTZ sd