AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 905 PM EST THU MAR 9 2000 01Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A GOOD DEW POINT GRAD FM CNTRL PS THRU SERN WV TO CNTRL TN. STILL EXPECT SFC FNT TO MOV THRU CWA OVERNIGHT. 8H FNT IS LAGGING FAR BEHIND FM OH TO MO. SEEMS LIKE COOLER AIR WILL BE SHALLOW ONCE IT DOES GET OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL MAJOR LOW GOES BY ON SAT. MESO-ETA AND RUC HAD WINDS AT 8H REMAINING OUT OF THE W TNGT AND FRI SO NOT MUCH CAA...YET. CURRENT FCST MINS AND CLDS COVER FOR TNGT OKAY. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. NC...NONE. AMS va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 958 AM EST THU MAR 9 2000 PRE-FRONTAL CNVRGNC AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BACK OVER THE MIDWEST CONTG TO PUSH NARROW FAST MOVING BAND OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MTNS ATTM. GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT WOULD EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO GO A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER MODELS PROJECTED EVEN WITH LACK OF GOOD DEWPTS/INSTAB OVER THE WEST. THUS WILL BOOST POPS A BIT FOR SW VA/SE WVA FOR EARLY THIS AFTN BUT LKLY STAY IN CHCY RANGE GIVEN QUICK EXODUS AS S/W AND SPEED MAX PUSH NEWD. MODIFIED MORN RAOBS DO INDICATE SOME DECENT AFTN CAPE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALTHOUGH APRS CLDNS AND EARLY SHRA MAY PUT A LID ON ESPCLY GIVEN EXITING UVV AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ACTUAL FRONT. ELSW...THINK COMBO OF DRY AIR SEEN OFF GSO RAOB AND MESO-ETA/RUC FCST OF DMNSHG DEEP RH EAST OF THE MTNS ENOUGH TO LIMIT CHCS ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH ERN SLOPES EARLY ON. DUE TO CLDNS/SHRA RECORD TEMPS MAY NOT BE REACHED ESPCLY FAR WEST WHERE WILL LKLY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS A LITTLE OTRW THICKNESS TEMPS MODIFIED FOR CLDNS LOOK OK. RECORD HIGHS FOR TDY: RNK 73/1964 VA...NONE. WV...NONE. NC...NONE. JH va SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 940 AM MST THU MAR 9 2000 .SYNOPSIS... A WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEK. .DISCUSSION... SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THE SWRN U.S. THIS MORNING AS EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS. MAIN SYSTEM WAS NEAR 4 CRNRS WHILE A MUCH WEAKER ONE WAS SEEN NR YUMA. 12Z RUC HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS VORT MAX THAT DRIFTED INTO YUMA CO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND RESULTANT HIGH LVL MSTR SPREAD ACROSS CNTRL AND EASTERN AZ. BY 15Z CLOUDS WERE THINNING AND LIFTING NE AS 500MB JET CORE SHIFTS FROM SOUTH OF PHX TO JUST NORTH OF PHX. 300MB WINDS LIKELY TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON BACK SIDE OF NEW UPPER TROF BY TOMORROW MORNING. SOUNDINGS ALSO FAIRLY DRY AND ALONG WITH GOES PRECIP WATER VALUES OF .25 TO .45 IN OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WILL EXPECT P/CLDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THIS SLOW LOSS OF PRECIP WATER WAS TRENDED NICELY WED BY AVN AND WILL LIKELY SEE THIS TREND ACCELERATE A LITTLE MORE AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SLOW RECOVERY TOWARD AVERAGE MAX TEMPS FOR PHX THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LIGHT WINDS/LTL MIXING CONTINUE. NO CHANGES OR UPDATES. SIPPLE N az WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 930 PM MST THU MAR 9 2000 CALLS AROUND TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SHERIFFS INDICATE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE TAKING THEIR TOLL...LOTS OF VEHICLE INCIDENTS ON SLICK ROADS. 00Z GJT/SLC RAOBS SHOW PLENTY OF COLD AIR INSTABILITY. RADAR KEEPS TOPS UP OVER 20K...NOT ENOUGH FOR LTG BUT ENOUGH FOR BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. 00Z MODELS AND 03Z RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW FLOW VEERING TO NW LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS UPPER DIVERGENCE/COLD CLOUD TOPS IN COL OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING. THIS ENHANCED AREA TO ASSIST WITH NORTHERN MTN SNOWS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE CYCLONIC AND NW. ALL THAT SAID... NORTHERN WARNING AND CENTRAL MTN ADVISORIES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TONIGHT. COLD UNSTABLE NW FLOW FRIDAY WILL KEEP MAINLY MTN SHOWERS GOING... PROBABLY TO END WITH SUNSET. MAY NEED TO EXTEND ADVISORIES INTO FRIDAY.... SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE IN-BETWEEN DAY. NEXT SYSTEM RIDES THE NORTHERN BRANCH FOR MOST PRECIP TO FALL NORTH AND CENTRAL. ALL THIS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE AND WILL LET IT RIDE. .GJT...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT...CO ZN 04. SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR UT ZN 23/CO ZNS 05/09/10/12/13. RAMEY co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1049 PM EST THU MAR 9 2000 SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO FA OVERNIGHT. UPDATE TO ADD SPOTTY FLURRIES/FZDZ OCCURRING ACRS NRN FA ATTM. MAY INCREASE WITH INCREASING MSTR FM CNTL MI IN N-NE LLVL FLOW BUT STILL A TRACE WDLY SCT EVENT. CLOUD HEIGHT TEMPS PER 00Z RUC V09Z ABOUT M5-M7C. SWRN FA WL RMN DRY. .IWX...NONE MURPHY in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 945 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2000 HAVE UPDATED ZONES THIS MORNING TO INCREASE SNOW ACROSS SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW AREA OF SNOW WITH VSBYS 1 TO 3 MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER. PROBABLY CAN GET AN INCH IN SOME AREAS, PARTICULARLY JUST S OF SAGINAW BAY WHERE SNOWBAND PRODUCED AROUND ONE HALF INCH THIS AM AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SNOW. ETA RUN AT 06Z AND LATEST RUC SUGGEST A QUICK DECREASE IN THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE IT WILL BE OVER EVEN BEFORE THAT IF THERE IS NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. .DTX...NONE. JW mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1040 PM EST THU MAR 9 2000 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS W/ THE UPDATE ARE CLOUDS AND TEMPS. SAT PICS SHOW ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVR THE WRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AHD OF WEAK S/WV TROF CROSSING THE UPR PLAINS. THESE ARE MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LOW SC DECK AND MSTR. OUT EAST...SKIES ARE CRNTLY CLR DESPITE LOW LVL DELTA T/S ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 17 (THRU 925MB) AS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. LOW PRESSURE HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVR MAINE DURG THE LATE AFTN AND EVE...AND IN TURN HIGH PRES CNTRD OVR ONT HAS BROADENED. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS THE UPR GRT LAKES HAS SLACKENED... AND WINDS DIMINISHED QUICKLY. RUC AND 00Z ETA CONT TO SHOW OVERALL DRYING TREND IN THE LOW LVLS ACRS THE W TNT...BUT RUC SOUNDINGS THRU 12Z CONT TO SHOW ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LVL MST...MAINLY AOA 500. THIS MSTR FCST TO ADVECT EWD DURG THE NGT. HAVE OPTED FOR MO CLDY SKIES TNT W...AND MO CLR ERLY AND INCRSG HIGH CLDS E. TEMPS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN FALG ONLY GRADUALLY UNDER THE UNDER THE CLDS AND LOW LVL TKNS SCHEME SUPPORTS LOW GNRLY ARND 10 DEGS. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP ABT 5 DEGS WRN HALF. WL LEAVE ERN FCSTS ALONE AS ERLY OVNGT CLRG SHD PROMOTE A WINDOW OF RADIATION. .MQT...NONE. DESROSIERS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1000 PM EST THU MAR 9 2000 ARCTIC FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD BE EXITING SE LOWER SHORTLY. SOME DRIZZLE IS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. AS TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT THE DRIZZLE BECOME BOTHERSOME. BOTH MESOETA AND RUC SHOW THE COLUMN OVER SE LOWER REMAINING QUITE MOIST FROM 700MB DOWNWARD. EVEN THOUGH THIS IS A VERY COLD AIRMASS... IT IS QUITE SHALLOW. IT IS GOING TO BE HARD TO GET TOO MUCH ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT IN THIS SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS SINCE THE MOISTURE NEVER REACHES UP TO WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP TO -10C TO -15C. GIVEN THIS... THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD OVERNIGHT. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT... BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SLICK UP SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WILL HAVE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL OF SE LOWER OVERNIGHT AND ALSO GO WITH A FEW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. .DTX...NONE. KEYES mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1000 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2000 MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE SNOW SHOWER BAND AT THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DEPARTING VORT MAX OVER UPR MI AND NRN WI HAS A TRAILING WEAK IMPULSE THAT PRODUCED THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE RUC SHOWS THAT THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL BE WORKING NEWD ALONG THE NORTH SHORE BUT SATELLITE PIX INDICATE THE TOPS ARE WARMING SOMEWHAT. WE WILL KEEP SOME FLURRIES UP THE NORTH SHORE AND IN THE WISCONSIN LK SUPR ZONES. SFC WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE SE WHICH WOULD WEAKEN THE WI SNOW BUT KEEP THE N SHORE REGION GOING FOR A WHILE. BY AFTN...A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD END THE SNOW FROM W TO E. ELSEWHERE...CURRENT FCST APPEARS ON TRACK. .DLH...NONE. CS mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 920 PM EST THU MAR 9 2000 SCT CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOKS GOOD. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE AREA AND ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER MOS GUID. RUC AND LAMP SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50'S/LOWER 60'S. WILL ADJUST TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT FCST. WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS ANOTHER 5 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS ILM AND MYR ARE STEADY AT 10 TO 15 AND WILL REMAIN SO MOST OF NIGHT. CWF...FRYING PAN SHOALS STILL STEADY AT 25 KT...SEAS 4 FT. LIGHTER WINDS LIKELY CLOSER TO SURFACE. WILL KEEP 20 KT AND GUSTY NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET AND 15 TO 20 SOUTH...GOOD TRANSITION BETWEEN CHS AND MHX. WILL KEEP HEADLINE OF POSSIBLE SCA IN FOR SAT. .ILM...NONE. JFP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1020 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2000 AIRMASS HAS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. GOES LI PRODUCT SHOWING LIS -1/-3 OVER CAE CWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS GENERALLY LACKING EXCEPT AT THE SURFACE WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP TO 60. ETA/RUC KEEP LIS -2/-3 THIS AFTERNOON. ETA CAPE UP CLOSE TO 1200 THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE THE 20 PERCENT CHANCE. WILL SAY MAINLY A SHOWER OR TWO BUT A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. THE ATMOSPHERE DOESN'T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK OK. .CAE...NONE. TTH sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 957 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2000 CONVECTION ACROSS ALABAMA AND NORTH GEORGIA WEAKENED AS IT ENTERED SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR THAT BLANKETS OUR CWFA THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SKIRT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. RUC SHOWING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOLING QUITE A BIT IN NORTHWEST CWFA...CLOSEST TO APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE AND IN VICININITY OF STALLED FRONT. UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES BY EVENING AS SOUTHERN STREAM GETS MORE ACTIVE...AND TROF OVER THE ROCKIES DROPS SOUTHEAST. AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGHER THETA-E AIR OVER ALABAMA AND GEORGIA PROGD TO INVADE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO-ETA VERY AGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO CWFA BY LATE AFTERNOON...RUC A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE. MODIFIED FFC SOUNDING WUD SUPPORT THUNDER CHANCES. ALL IN ALL... CURRENT FORECAST LUKS GUD...WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN MOST ZONES. CIRRUS OVERSPREADING EASTERN ZONES AT PRESENT...WILL CONTINUE PARTLY SUNNY TRENDS THERE AND MAY BUMP UP AFTERNOON MAXES...WITH THICKNESS SCHEME SUGGESTING LOWER 80S POSSIBLE THERE. .GSP...NONE. BURRUS sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 936 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2000 ...MAIN CONCERN THIS UPDATE ARE PRECIP CHANCES... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. WITH THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT SURROUNDING SOUNDINGS AND MODIFYING THEM SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY...SO THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NEW RUC MODEL SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE SPAWNING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED REPORT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SITUATION...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE THIS MORNING WORDING AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. PDK tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 255 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2000 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS IS THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS AFFECTS MAY JUST MISS OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH. THIS UPPER TROF SWINGS EASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SAT/SAT NIGHT. DOWN AT THE SFC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON LIFTS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUN. FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (TON-SAT-SAT NGHT-SUN) ARE MAINLY TIED TO CLOUD COVER WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY STAYING SOUTH. MODELS ALL FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN FEATURES...BUT HV OPTED TO FOLLOW THE ETA...WITH ITS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. TONIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW IS HANGING ON THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING. CYCLONIC FLOW IS AIDING IN THE FORMATION OF STRATOCU IN LOCATIONS WHERE SYSTEM CLOUDS ARE EXITING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDING IN AT 925MB TONIGHT WILL GO WITH A BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FCST. LATEST RUC IS HINTING AT DRYING AT 925MB/S AS WELL. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN TH NORTH TO AROUND 20 IN THE SOUTH. ON SATURDAY...SYSTEM CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WAVE LIFTS UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL WORD THE FORECAST AS BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SO WILL HAVE ZONE BREAK THERE TO MENTION SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO THE SNOW ON THE NW EDGE...AND FEEL THE GOOD ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE GRR FCST AREA. WILL LINGER FLURRIES IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO THE EAST. PLAN ON USING A BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AND NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...WILL NOT TAKE LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU INTO TOO MUCH CONSIDERATION...AS THE BULK OF IT SHOULD REMAIN OUT OVER THE LAKE TON-SAT-SAT NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...FCST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE WAVE OFF TO THE EAST...AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. WITH POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THE EASTERN SYSTEM AND CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM NOT TO MENTION LAKE STRATOCU POSSIBILITIES WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND USE A PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR SUNDAY. WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM NGM MOS TEMPS IN THE SAT-SUN TIME FRAME. DUKESHERER .EXTENDED DISCUSSION... FIRST OF A COUPLE OF RAPID MOVING CLIPPERS WILL AFFECT THE FA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH THE SECOND IMPINGING ON THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. EUROPEAN AND MRF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MOVING THE FIRST COUPLED WAVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE SECOND WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF HUDSON BAY AND UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE ROCKIES AS CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS VCNTY CA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MWH .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 227 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2000 TSTMS ALREADY POPPING UP THIS AFTN MAINLY W AND SW OF CAE. STMS BEING FUELED BY MID-LVL S/W AS SHOWN ON LATEST RUC. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO EVENING HRS AS S/W LIFTS NE. MAIN FNT STILL TO OUR W ON W SIDE OF APLCNS. MODELS IN GD AGREEMENT SHOWING 500 MB TROF LIFTING OUT OF SRN ROCKIES AND MOVG EWRD TO ERN SEABOARD BY SUN AM. TROF WL TAKE ON A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO OUR CWA. WL KEEP HI CHC POP FOR MAINLY SHWRS TONITE BUT TSTM PSBL SINCE AMS WL REMAIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. AS FNT GETS CLOSER ON SAT...AMS WL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING. BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION LATE SAT AM AND ERLY SAT AFTN. AFTER THAT TIME PD...850 MB TEMP ADVECTION BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL. FNT SHUD MOV OFSHR BY ERLY SUN AM WITH CLEARING LATE. SUN LUKS MOSTLY SUNNY AS HI PRES MOVES IN BEHIND FNT. WL USE GENL BLEND OF LCL SCHEMES AND FCST GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. ERLY PART OF XTND FCST LUKS DRY. FAST MOVG CDFNT WL APPROACH AREA ON WED BRINGING CHC OF SHWRS. MSTR APPEARS A LITTLE LIMITED ATTM. PRELIM CCFS CAE TU 57/76/47/60/33 465 AGS TU 56/77/46/62/32 464 .CAE...NONE. BC sc