AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1010 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2000 CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVING MOVED THROUGH FORECAST AREA ON SCHEDULE. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AS SQUALL-LINE MOVED RACED EASTWARD AHEAD OF STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT CONTINUES JUST BEHIND SQUALL-LINE AS SUPPORTED BY RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY...AND THIS HAS HELPED TO PREVENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS ABSENT HOWEVER ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHICH IS WHERE RECENT RUC AND ETA GUIDANCE SHOW STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE BETWEEN 1000-850MB FORMING 00-06Z. WITH SUBSIDENCE REGION OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LIKELY TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...CONCERNED THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE TERRAIN IS HIGHER. SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY COMING UP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH CHILDRESS RECENTLY REPORTING 56 KNOTS...BACK IN THE PRIMARY SUBSIDENCE REGION. WILL THEREFORE SPEED UP WIND ADVISORY TIMING AND ISSUE IT FOR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. .OUN... OK...WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT OKZ004-005-009-014-016-021-022-033>037 WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES ON WEDNESDAY. TX...WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT TXZ083-084-085-087 WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES ON WEDNESDAY. JAMES ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 910 PM TUE MAR 7 2000 SATELLITE SHOWING CI...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 500 MB VORT MAX... ACROSS GA MOVING INTO AREA. RUCII/META HOLD ON TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THRU EARLY MORNING. WILL CHANGE SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING A BIT...BUT TEMP FORECAST OK. .CAE...NONE. AWP sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 225 PM MST TUE MAR 7 2000 TYPICAL WRN SD SPRING STORM CAUSING TYPICAL HEADACHES. BEST THING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS THAT MDLS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVOLUTION OF EVENTS. MAIN DIF IS AVN BEING FURTHER NW...THUS WARMER. HAVE GONE WITH NGM/ETA SOLNS GIVEN STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT WHICH WOULD LIKELY YIELD COOLER TEMPS...AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WITH STRONG H2O CONV ALONG BOUNDARY NEAR NE/SD BORDER...AND RUC-PROGGED CAPE GREATER THAN 1000...+TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVE IN FAR SRN CWA...ALONG AND S OF A IEN TO SFD LINE. WINTER WX-WISE UPPER VORT WILL EJECT WITH VERY STRONG NEGATIVE TILT OVR CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER JET STRUCTURE SHOWS TREMENDOUS JET DYNAMICS/COUPLING BULLSEYED OVR WRN SD LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. ISENT LIFT AROUND N SIDE OF LOW PROGGED TO GO GONZO IN NW SD WED AS WELL. THIS LIFT MUST BE STRONG SINCE PERSISTANT WAA AT H7 IS LEADING TO A COOLING OF TEMPS AT H7 BY 6 TO 8C. MOISTURE WILL ALSO NOT BE A PROBLEM...AT LEAST NOT AVAILABILITY OF IT. THE ONLY PROBLEM THAT H20 MAY PRESENT IS THAT THEIR MAY BE TOO MUCH...NOT ALLOWING US TO COOL VERY FAST IN WRN SD DURING THE DAY WED...CHANGING PRECIP TO SN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z ETA AND 18Z ETA SHOW PRECIP AT RAP CHANGING BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z. FURTHER W AND HIGHER UP...NE WY...BLK HLS...AND FAR NW SD THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CD AIR TO CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT. IN THESE AREAS WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE WARNINGS FOR THESE PERIODS. FURTHER E WHERE TEMPS STILL A QUESTION WILL GO JUST WATCH FOR WED/WED EVE. AT RAPO...WITH LOWER LVL WNDS N-NE RATHER THAN NW...DOWNSLOPING SHOULDN'T BE A PROBLEM...ALLOWING RAP TO SHARE IN SNOWFALL ACCUMS. TOUGHEST CALL THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS FAR SRN COUNTIES. SUPERIMPOSED ON THE SNOWFALL WILL BE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH IN NE WY TO AROUND 60 MPH IN NW SD...CREATING BLIZZARD TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. EXPECT SNOWFALL TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES IN NE WY TO NW SD...12 TO 24 INCHES IN THE BLK HLS WITH THE NRN AND ERN SLOPES FAVORED. FURTHER E IN THE RAP AREA...I WOULD SAY THAT 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY THE DECIDING FACTOR. IN FAR SW SD HAVE GONE WITH A WATCH WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SNOW POTENTIAL AND MARGINAL WINDS. FURTHER E IN SCNTRL SD PRECIP SHOULD TURN LATE ENOUGH TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACT. NO HILITES IN WESTON CO WY WHERE DOWNSLOPE WILL RETARD PRECIP. ALSO IT LOOKS AS IF WNDS WONT GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR HIGH WND WARNING TONIGHT IN WRN SD...SO WILL CANCEL. .UNR...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT AND WED MOST OF NE WY AND BLACK HILLS. ...BLIZZARD WARNING LATE TONIGHT AND WED FAR NW SD ...WND ADVY PART OF NW SD LATE TONIGHT ...WINTER STORM WATCH WED AND WED EVE PART OF NW AND WCNTRL SD ...WINTER STORM WATCH WED AFTERNOON AND EVE FAR SW SD BAILEY sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 922 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2000 LATEST MSAS DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS PUSHED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. HENCE...EXPECT THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. BELIEVE CURRENT FORECAST TOO OPTIMISTIC IN TEMPERATURES FALLING...SO WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS. CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TRANSLATION OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BRING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 10:30Z...KRST BY 11Z AND KLSE BY 12Z. THE LATEST RUC AGREES WITH THIS AND WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL TRIM BACK CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND EAST ZONES. DO NOT SEE THIS ACTIVITY GETTING QUITE THAT FAR BY MORNING. .LSE...NONE. KRC wi SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 945 PM MST TUE MAR 7 2000 INTERESTING EVENING WITH NICE AREA OF DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP SETTING UP RIGHT ALONG I-25 FROM KCOS TO KTAD. STRONG UPWARD MOTION EVIDENTLY ABLE TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WITH NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT. RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR STREET FLOODING HERE IN PUB. SNOW LEVELS COMING DOWN...WITH AROUND AN INCH REPORTED IN THE BLACK FOREST...HEAVIER SNOW IN TELLER COUNTY FROM DIVIDE TO CRIPPLE CREEK. INTERESTINGLY...DOWNSLOPE SEEMS TO HAVE HELD PRECIP BAND EAST OF THE NORMALLY FAVORED SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS. SFC LOW SOUTH OF KLHX ALREADY DEEPER THAN EVEN LATEST RUC FORECAST LEADS ME TO BELIEVE PRECIP WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THOUGH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE EVIDENT ON KPUX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHUT THINGS DOWN LATE. WINDS CRANKING UP...BUT HIGH WIND CRITERIA NOT MET UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY SO WILL LEAVE WATCH UP AND LET MID SHIFT ISSUE WARNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT AS SOON AS I CAN PUT THEM TOGETHER...MAINLY JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS TO THE ZONES. .PUB...HIGH WIND WATCH 65/66/67/70<81 AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PETERSEN co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1055 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2000 UPDATED ZONES TO CONTINUE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. VIGOROUS 700 MILLIBAR GRADIENT PROGGED ON RUC TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. LBB AND ABQ...AN UPDATED WRKMA1 WILL NOT BE ISSUED UNLESS REQUESTED... .MAF... TX...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING GUADALUPE PASS. NM...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. 12 tx SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 900 AM MST WED MAR 8 2000 ...WILL UPDATE ZONES AND STATE... VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER SE ID TUESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN WAS PROGGED YESTERDAY. RUC AND NEWEST ETA DRIFT VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL MT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AT THE SURFACE UPSLOPE GRADS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. EXPECT THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY OVER CENTRAL MONTANA...TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTH AS PVA ENDS. WILL EXTEND SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES SNOW NEAR DILLON BUT SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THAT SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO PUSH BACK ENDING OF SNOW...UPDATE POPS AND SNOW ADVISORY. TEMPS LOOK OK. HAD SOME CONCERN THAT MAX IN SW MT ZONES TOO HIGH...BUT BREAKS IN CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW WARMING SUCH AS OCCURRED AT KIDA THIS LAST HOUR. MPJ GTF +44 HLN +33 HVR 422 mt COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 930 AM CST WED MAR 8 2000 MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES THE WEAK FRONT SPLITTING THE CWA IN HALF. WESTERN SECTIONS...BEHIND THE FRONT...ARE IN A LIGHT NORTH FLOW WHILE THE EASTERN SECTIONS HAVE SE WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF WILL BECOME VARIABLE. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY CLEAN UP THE MORNING WORDING ON THE UPDATE. JMC.84.SYN .CRP...NONE. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 245 PM CST WED MAR 8 2000 LATEST LAPS PLAN VIEW MSTR/INSTABILITY PLOTS STILL HINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACRS EXTREME SERN MO...INTO SRN IL...WRN KY AND SWRN IN. MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR ATTM IS CAPPING LAYER ACRS CWA AND DRIER MID-LVL AIR MOVING IN FROM WRN MO. THIS FACTOR MAY BE MINIMIZED AS INSOLATION FROM SUN DIMINISHES AND MAIN LIFT DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE SFC...TAKING ADVANTAGE OF GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION AND SHEAR ABOVE THE PBL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ACTUAL POINT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION... DECIDED TO MENTION INCRSING NUMERICAL POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS FORECAST AREA. IF CAPPING AND DRY AIR TOO GREAT...EVENING SHIFT MAY HAVE TO DROP OR SEVERELY CURTAIL EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHTLY FAST AND TOO FAR NORTHEAST WITH UPPER LOW...AVN APPEARED TO HANDLE THE MAIN TRACK OF THE TIGHT LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WELL. AVN WAS DEFINATELY SUPERIOR IN SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS OVER ETA/NGM...AND EVEN THE RUC AT 18Z TODAY. UTILIZED AVN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MSTR PROGS FOR PCPN FCST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SLOW TO MOVE SEWD TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE WELL INTO AR/MS/TN...BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WRN U.S. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS SFC BOUNDARY LATE THU INTO FRI. FCST ADJUSTED TO INCREASE CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...AS WELL AS THE MENTION OF STABLE PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST INTO FORECAST AREA. USED A COMPROMISE OF AVN/MRF POSITION OF NEXT 50H LOW FURTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO A KJLN-KSTL LINE. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER INTO SAT AND AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT PCPN TYPE AT THIS TIME FOR SRN IL AND SERN MO...BELIEVE IT SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN. ADDED MENTION OF TSRA FOR SRN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT BELIEVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ELEVATED AND/OR SFC TSRA WILL BE DURING THE EVENING. STABLE...STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD BE THE RULE ON SAT. SHARP RIDGE MOVES IN ON SUN...CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CWA. A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM MOVES DOWN ON MONDAY AND IS PROGGED TO CLIP THE ERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. DECIDED TO MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN AT THIS TIME FOR ERN ZONES ON MON. LEANED TOWARD FAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MINS IN SHORT TERM. ALTHOUGH WINDS COULD GUST TO 30+ MPH LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH DRYLINE/FRONT...WL NOT USE ANY SPECIAL WORDING OR ADVISORIES IN FIRST PD. WL LEAVE TO SHORT TERM FORECASTS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS. .PAH...NONE. SMITH ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 440 PM EST WED MAR 8 2000 FCST PROBLEMS ARE MANY AND VARIED THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM TSRA TO FZRA TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. FIRST THINGS FIRST...SHRA AND TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ATTM. THIS "ARM" WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...NONE OF THE TSRA IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DISTANCE FROM THE BETTER DYNAMICS FURTHER WEST. COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE WEST AS IWD...ONT AND CMX ALL IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AS OF 21Z. EXPECT THE FRONT TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE U.P. TONIGHT FROM NNW TO SSE. RAIN WILL AGAIN BREAK OUT ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE EVENING AS A SECOND COMMA HEAD REACHES THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE U.P. WENT WITH A ETA/AVN MIX FOR THE FORECAST WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE RUC FOR THE SHORT TERM. BELIEVE THE NGM IS IN ERROR CONCENTRATING THE AREA OF BEST LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE OTHER 2 MODELS. USED 950MB 0 LINE ON THE RUC AND ETA FOR THE CHANGE OVER THE FZRA AND SLEET. IT CHANGES OVER AT CMX AROUND 03Z...06Z AT MQT AND NR 12Z ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR AROUND...HOWEVER THE ARCTIC AIR IS NOT FAR AWAY AND THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. AS IN MOST CASES...BELIEVE THAT THE COLDER AIR AND DYNAMICS WILL WIN...PERHAPS FASTER THAN THE MODELS PROJECT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CHANGE OVER FROM SLEET TO SNOW. AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE MODELS ALL SHOW VERY HEALTHY QG FORCING WITH OMEGA VALUES APPROACHING 10 MICROBARS/SEC. MOISTURE IS IN ABUNDANCE WITH 4-5 G/KG OVER THE U.P. TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THIS WITH THE FACT THAT 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7.5C/KM MAKES ME CONCERNED ABOUT THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...PERHAPS NOT THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HEAVIER BURSTS FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE IT OVER TO SNOW EARLIER AND ADD TO ACCUMULATIONS. AS A GENERAL RULE 4-8 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM A IWD-MQT LINE NORTH. 2-5 INCHES FROM THERE SOUTH AND 1-3 FOR MNM. COMPLICATING FACTORS INCLUDE THE STG NE WIND DEVELOPING TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL DRASTICALLY INCREASE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE HILLS INLAND IN MQT-BAR COUNTIES. MENTIONED 4 INCHES ALONG THE LAKE WHERE THE MORE MILD LAKE WILL CUT DOWN ON ACCUMULATIONS... UP TO A FOOT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS FAR AS THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT GOES...THE INVERSION WILL BE STEEP AND LOW...HOWEVER THE DELTA T FROM 925MB TO THE LAKE WILL BE 11C BY 12Z...VERY STEEP LL INSTABILITY. BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL ADD MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS ENHANCING THE SNOW. WINDS WILL GUST TO 40-45 MPH ALONG THE LAKE AND WILL COVER THAT ASPECT IN THE WARNING STATEMENT. WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TOMORROW WITH THE STIFF NE WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS. THE WEATHER BECOMES QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND ONLY WK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES. DIDN'T STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN THE EXTENDED... AS THE STORM IN THE SOUTHEAST TURNS UP THE COAST...THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD STAY IN THE CANADIAN AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MRF SHOWS A SMALL BUT POTENT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN THE NW FLOW LATE SUNDAY. EURO MODELS DAMPEN THIS SYSTEM OUT. SINCE CONTINUITY HAS SN IN FOR LATE SUNDAY...WILL KEEP IT BUT MENTION LIGHT. NEXT UL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW BY LATE MONDAY. THIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST AND BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD BY WEDNESDAY. SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL WARM TEMPS UP TO NR 40 AS AN AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM. .MQT...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING MIZ001>005-009 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MIZ006-007-010-011-013-014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THURSDAY MIZ012 ...GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR ALTOE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 230 PM CST WED MAR 8 2000 IN SHORT TERM...WILL EXTEND WIND ADVISORY INTO EVENING AS PROFILERS ARE SHOWING A STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE. RUC ALSO SHOWING 45 KTS OF WIND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z AT 925 MB. THINK WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER CRITERIA AFTER SUNSET AS ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. OTHERWISE...WILL LOOK AT PLACEMENT OF DRYLINE NEAR ZONE TIME AND PLACE CONTINUED CHC OF EVENING TSRA TO THE EAST OF IT. MSAS NOW SHOWING -4 TO -7 LI'S OVER IL WITH UPPER JET STREAK APPROACHING AREA. MODELS ALL SEEMED TO BE VERIFYING PRETTY WELL AT 18Z WITH THE ETA DOING THE BEST. DON'T SEE TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE RUN. UPPER LOW OVER ERN NEB WL MOVE RAPIDLY ENE. 1000-850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS OVER NEB AND MN WL MOVE SEWD INTO WRN AND NRN PARTS OF CWFA OVERNIGHT AND BE ALONG AND N OF I-70 ON THURSDAY. BEST INSTABILITY WITH UPPER LOW SHIFTS NEWD...SO WL KEEP OUT MENTION OF PRECIP ON THURSDAY. TROF NOW OFF W COAST WILL MOVE EWD AND BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AVN'S UVV...UPPER DIVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING INCREASES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE S AND W OF STL. BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL START UP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE NW...SO WILL GO WITH THE COOLER FWC. QUITE A GAP WITH FWC/FAN TEMPS ON FRIDAY. DON'T LIKE WARM FAN TEMPS WITH NE WINDS AND CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...BUT FWC LOOKS TOO COOL. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE. INTO THE EXTENDED...THE MRF...NOGAPS...ECMWF AND NEW AVN HAVE COME TOGETHER IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SHORWAVE TROF MOVING THRU THE MID MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY. SEF HAS A DEEPER AMPLITUDE TROF AND CONSEQUENTLY SLOWS THE TROF DOWN...BUT PREFER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF FOR SATURDAY. CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FRIDAY NITE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. MRF IS SHOWING ANOTHER VORT MOVING IN FROM NW SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT IT IS KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST N AND E OF CWFA SO WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. .STL...WIND ADVISORY FOR CNTRL AND ERN MO AND PARTS OF SW IL FOR THIS EVENING. BRITT mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 233 PM CST WED MAR 8 2000 ...ALL KINDS OF WEATHER TODAY...WHEN WILL IT END.... 18Z SFC AND UPPER LOW STACKED IN NERN NEBR. TIGHT GRADIENT ON BACK SIDE HAS SLACKENED A LITTLE BUT NOT MUCH. 18Z RUC NOT AVAILABLE SO LOOKING AT THE 12Z ETA...QG FORCING SLIDES NORTH THRU 00Z THU WHICH IS THE TREND THAT IR PICS INDICATE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED MATURE CYCLONE WITH TYPICAL BENT BACK FRONT/T-BONE STRUCTURE. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH EXITING SYSTEM FOR THE MOST PART BUT DIFFER SOME ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INCOMING SYSTEM THU NIGHT. HAVE CHOSEN THE ETA BASED ON HISTORY OF THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS...BUT IT HAS SHIFTED ITS SOLUTION FURTHER NORTH SINCE 00Z WED RUN. FOR TONIGHT...LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD WITH DEFORMATION ZONE AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP SHIFTING N INTO NRN SD. LAPSE RATES REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NERN PART OF THE CWA SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SHRA FOR THE EVENING MIXING WITH OR CHANGING BRIEFLY TO SN. WILL GO WITH A WIND ADV FOR ALL ZONES BUT ERN PANHANDLE AND WILL WAIT TILL 3PM CST OBS TO DECIDE ON THEM. IN THE NC/NW...ECHOES DECREASING RAPIDLY ALREADY ON KLNX 88D AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO GET AN INCH OR SO AS IT LIFTS OUT N OF A LINE FROM ARTHUR TO VTN...BUT SNOW HAS BEEN MELTING RATHER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE SW...A FEW SPIT THIS EVE BUT NOTHING AFTER THAT. DOWNSLOPE WINDS INTO THE NIGHT SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW SO WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE WEST...BUT CLOUDS HANG ON THE EAST THEN DECREASING IN THE PM. GRADIENT STILL SOMEWHAT TIGHT IN NERN ZONES TOMORROW MORNING...BUT SHOULD STAY IN THE BREEZY CAT. MUCH COLDER ALL THE WAY AROUND...BUT LIKE FAN TEMPS A LITTLE BETTER. WILL BRING IN THE PRECIP THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SW. H8 TEMPS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE ALL SNOW. LESSER CHANCES FURTHER N. LIKE THE COOLER FWC NUMBERS FOR FRI...BUT THEY MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL AND WILL MODERATE THEM SOMEWHAT. IN THE EXTENDED...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN EURO MODELS/CANADIAN MODELS/MRF. AFTER LATE WEEK STORM GOES BY...CWA RETURNS TO NW FLOW WHICH WILL BRING A WEAK SYSTEM THRU SAT. WILL INCLUDE -SN IN THE NRN ZONES FOR THE EXTENEDED...BUT LEAVE SRN ZONES DRY. SUNDAY MRF LOOKS TOO WARM BASED ON BACK DOOR FRONT THAT SWINGS THRU...BUT MONDAY LOOKS WARMER. .LBF...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ALL BUT ERN PANHANDLE JWS ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 325 PM CST WED MAR 8 2000 THE INITIAL CONCERN IS THAT THE DRY LINE MAY RETREAT A BIT TONIGHT... AS PER NORMAL DIURNAL CONSIDERATIONS...AND BECAUSE OF INCREASING FORCING FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC2 IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SYNOPTIC MODELS IN LIFTING THE DRY LINE NORTH...AND WE WILL FOLLOW IT...BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY LATE TONIGHT AND MORNING. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. THE 2100Z PRESSURE TENDENCIES AND SOME BACKING OF SOUTHERN PLAINS' PROFILER WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS SUPPORT THIS NOTION. SECONDLY...THE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN PROGGED...AS PER MIDDAY WATER VAPOR LOOP CONSIDERATIONS AND SFC PRESSURES ACROSS NEVADA....WHICH ARE ABOUT 4 MB LOWER THAN PROGGED BY ETA. A TIGHT...CYCLONIC WATER VAPOR DARK (SUBSIDENCE) SLOT DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CAL LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THE STRONGER MESO-MODEL DEPICTIONS ARE MORE ACCURATE. THUS...I WILL GO ABOVE MOS POPS CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS AVN FAN GUIDANCE. MOS TEMPERATURES ARE OK...BUT MAYBE A BIT TOO COOL AT NIGHT CONSIDERING A BIT OF MOISTURE WILL BE COMING BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOK DRY...WITH SOME COOLER CONDITIONS...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND. .FTW...NONE DFW 49/77/54/70 0035 ACT 50/81/56/73 0024 26 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1155 AM CST WED MAR 8 2000 FRONT CONTINUED TO INCH EAST THIS AM AND IS JUST NOW CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF FRONT TO KEEP SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS WERE INCREASING IN THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA BUT DONT THINK IT WILL MAKE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED THE WIND ADVISORY TO CAUTION LEVEL. WINDS TO BE BELOW CAUTION LEVEL WHERE THE CLOUDS REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON N THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. .FTW...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES WEST OF A BONHAM...TEMPLE LINE. .AVIATION DISCUSSION... INTERESTING WEATHER HAS NOT ENDED...JUST YET! THE RUC2 MESOSCALE MODEL (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ETA MODEL) HINTS THAT THE DRY LINE WILL BACK UP A BIT TONIGHT...PROBABLY INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...WE HAVE INTRODUCED FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AT THE WACO AIRPORT...AND SOME LIGHT FOG ONLY AT DFW AND LOVE FIELD. WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED FTW (FORT WORTH MEACHAM) AT THIS POINT. WE WILL DO LIKEWISE IN THE AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE. 26 tx