AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 958 PM CST SUN MAR 5 2000 WAS GOING TO LEAVE FCST ALONE BUT JUST NOTICED THAT ISOLD SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE DVLPD OVR VRY SMALL PTNS OF NE AND KS. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS SHRT WVS OVR CO AND WRN KS GIVING DYNAMIC SUPPORT...AND 00Z H85 ANLYS SHOWS 35-40KT LOW LVL JET FM TX INTO NE. MSTR RIBBON NARROW BUT 5C DWPNTS TO KDDC AND MAKING GOOD PROGRESS NWD. 00Z RUC H85 THETA-E CNVGNC MAX INVOF OF CURRENT PCPN ON LEADING EDGE OF MSTR AND BRINGS FEATURE INTO WRN FA OVNGT. H85-H5 QG FORCING AHD OF SHRT WV ALSO LIFTS INTO WRN IA. MSTR STILL LTD BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THOUGHT IT WOULD BE BEST TO ADD ISOLD SHWRS. COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT DID NOT THINK THREAT WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SPCLLY WITH SUCH LTD CVRG XPCD. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR WND ADJUSTMENTS TO FIT CURRENT WX. TEMPS SEEM FINE. .DSM...NONE SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1005 PM EST SUN MAR 5 2000 TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF RATHER QUICKLY IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE LAKE BREEZE PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S WELL BEFORE SUNSET. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS. MEANWHILE...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BRUSH THE EASTERN UP AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND EARLY LOOK AT 0Z ETA...WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN UP...AND WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE...18Z MESOETA...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 0Z RUC... SUGGESTED THAT A BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS WOULD DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPED WITHIN THE 285-295K LAYER. HOWEVER...EXCEPT FOR A BIT OF MOISTURE SHOWN AT 825 MB BY THE 0Z KGRB SOUNDING...FOG IMAGERY...0Z 850 MB ANALYSIS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW NO SIGN OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. NOW...THE 0Z ETA LOOKS RATHER DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 12Z...AND THIS SEEMS MORE LOGICAL GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS. THUS...WITH LACK OF MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK LIFT...FEW IF ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND 0Z ETA/RUC FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT PER CURRENT FORECASTS. .APX...NONE. ROWLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 847 PM CST SUN MAR 5 2000 SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE LOWEST OVER WI AND WILL CUT BACK A LITTLE ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. BAND OF CLOUDINESS OVER NE AND KS ROTATING NORTHEAST. 00Z RUC SHOWS THIS CLOUDINESS INTO SW MN BY 12Z. SOME DESTABILIZATION SEEN PUSHING INTO SW MN TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH H8 LI/S DROPPING TO 2 ALONG WITH THETA-E RIDGE AND VERTICAL TOTALS APPROACHING 7 DEG/KM. CURRENT FORECAST OF HAVING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING OVER WEST CENTRAL MN LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES PLANNED. .MSP...NONE. HILTBRAND mn SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 840 PM MST SUN MAR 5 2000 ...WILL UPDATE STATE AND TFX ZONE FORECASTS... S/WV TROF CONTG TO MOVE N WITH WAA MOISTURE SPREADING OVER COLDER CANADIAN AMS OF NORTHERN CWA. LATEST RUC AND NEW ETA DRAG MAIN VORT CENTER E THAN EARLIER ETA/NGM/AVN MODELS...AND DELAYS PVA OVER N CENTRAL MT TIL 12Z. HOWEVER STL IMAGERY STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF MOIST UPSTREAM IN OVERRUNNING PATTERN AND RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOWS RAIN SPREADING OVER SRN AND CENTRAL ID. EXPECT THIS BAND TO CONT WORKING NORTH TONIGHT WITH RAIN SPREADING OVER SRN ZONES...TURNING TO SNOW OVER N CENTRAL MT LATER TNT AND MON. WILL UPDATE FCST TO INCREASE CHC OF RAIN SW ZONES AND DELAY ONSET OF SIG SNOW FALL OVER N CENTRAL MT. WILL ALSO EXPAND SNOW ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ZONE 12 WITH ZONE 13...KEEPING HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FOR MON. EYSSAUTIER GTF 7834 HLN 6833 HVR 4846 mt SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 905 AM MST SUN MAR 5 2000 ...UPDATE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING FOR ZONES AND STATE PRODUCTS... MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS. LAST NIGHTS RUN SHOWED A LARGE DIVERGENCE AFTER 24 HOURS AND WHAT MODELS HAVE FILTERED IN SHOW THE SAME. 12Z RUC IS LINING UP WITH LAST NIGHTS AVN RUN WHILE THE NEW ETA IS SHOWING A WEAKER SOLUTION THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE PROBLEMS PERSIST BOTH ON AWIPS AND EVEN ON THE INTERNET. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOW FIRST LOW NEAR SLC WITH TROF OFF WEST COAST CONTINUING TO SHARPEN. MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO BEFORE SWINGING IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS PRIMARILY NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. WITH SFC HIGH ACROSS CANADA AND LOW SWINGING UP WINDS SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL INHIBIT TEMPERATURES. LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING AT LETHBRIDGE THIS MORNING AND SPOTTER REPORTS FROM OUT EAST INDICATE FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS A LOT OF THE CWA...BASED ON SFC OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT'S ABOUT 2 HOURS OLD...WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE ELSEWHERE. NO OTHER CHANGES WILL BE FORTHCOMING BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD UNTIL ALL MODELS COME IN BUT A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GTF 175 HLN 145 HVR 247 mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 930 PM CST SUN MAR 5 2000 03Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON CUE TO RETURN BACK TO THE FA LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS RETURN FLOW/WAA REGIME SETS UP. LATEST RUN OF THE RUC INDICATES DRIEST AIR WILL OCCUR OVR NORTHWEST ZONES SO FEEL CURRENT LOW TEMP FCST IN TROUBLE. IN FACT KCVN ALREADY 07/M08 THIS HOUR AND EXPECT SIMILAR TEMP PROFILE ACROSS THE ADJACENT ZONES. WILL UPDATE THE ZFP TO LOWER MINS A CATEGORY. GOES-8 11-3.9 IMGRY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS PROPAGATING NORTHWEST FROM SOUTH TX AS EXPECTED. CURRENT PKG HANDLES CLOUD COVER TRENDS PRETTY WELL. UPDATED ZFP TO BE ISSUED AROUND 945 PM. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT. .LBB...NONE. TAYLOR tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 900 PM EST SUN MAR 5 2000 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN DRAMATICALLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON READINGS. SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA... WITH IR AND FOG LOOP SHOWING SOME COLD AIR SC/ST OVER NY AND NORTHERN PA. A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE, WEATHER-WISE. ONLY CONCERN WILL BE MOVEMENT OF CLOUD DECK WELL TO THE NORTH. 18Z ETA AND 00Z RUC INDICATE THAT CLOUDS WILL MAKE A SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST... BUT REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WILL CLEAR/SUNNY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPS STILL WELL IN THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA AT 01Z. WITH WINDS DECOUPLING AND WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN A HEALTHY DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR THE MOST PART.. AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH THOSE READINGS SO LOW. WITH EXPECTATION THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.. WILL LOW TEMPS ONE CAT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CITIES. GRADIENT OVER THE EAST MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE THAT TEMPS WONT GET DOWN QUITE AS FAR... AND GOING FORECASTS LOOK REPRESENTATIVE HERE. MADE JUST A COUPLE OF MINOR CHANGES TO HIGHS TOMORROW. TREND IN FORECAST STILL STANDS... WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS DUE TO ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR FOR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE BAY IN THE AFTERNOON... AS RAMS OUTPUT SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A BAY BREEZE IN OTHERWISE WEAK WIND REGIME. .LWX...NONE. MARGRAF! md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 915 PM CST SUN MAR 5 2000 LATEST MSAS SFC PRESSURE PLOT PUTS LOW IN THE VICINITY OF KCPR. LATEST RUC AGREES WITH 12Z ETA RUN IN MOVING 5H ENERGY MORE TO THE EAST OF NGM/AVN SOLNS AND A BIT SLOWER. AM CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW THINGS THIS EVENING. FIRST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT IN THE ERN COUNTIES. TIME SECTION FROM RUC AND 12Z ETA ALONG WITH 12Z NGM MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS HAPPENING. DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS NERN SD. CURRENT DWPTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 4OS WITH RUC SHOWING MORE MOIST ADVECTING IN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE ALSO GOING TO REMAIN STEADY OR INCREASE AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW MOVING NORTH. ALSO...AM WORRIED ABOUT LOW BETWEEN KMBG AND KABR. CURRENTLY KMBG RUNNING 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN KABR...WITH KMBG HAVING AROUND A 5 DEGREE COOLER DWPT. HOWEVER...WITH MOIST POOLING...KMBG DWPTS HAVE COME UP A NOTCH THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. SO...WILL LET CURRENT ZONES RIDE WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED ATTM. .ABR...NONE. HINTZ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 250 AM MST MON MAR 6 2000 UPR LOW SPINNING NE ACRS ERN PART OF PNHNDL ATTM. BLV ETA/RUC HAVE LTL BTR HANDLE ON STRNGTH OF SYS THRU TDA...SO WILL GO WITH THEM AND POST WIND ADVY IN PNHNDL THRU MIDDAY. DON'T BLV WNDS WILL BE DCRSG AND TURNING SRLY AS QUICK AS NGM/AVN DO TDA. HIGHS TDA 5 TO 10 DEGS LESS THAN YDA...WILL LEAN TWDS COOLER FWC/S. FOR TNGT...SSW FLOW ALFT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH ALL MDLS SHOW AS RATHER FRACTURED. ONE PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTS NNE ACRS NV/NRN UT INTO WRN WY/MT...WHILE ANTHR PIECE RMNS IN BASE OF TROF. ETA FRTHR S WITH THIS PTN THAN OTR MDLS. BLV AVN/NGM MORE ON TRACK HWVR...WITH A WEAK 700 CIRCULTN BY LATE TUE AFTN IN ERN CO. CDFNT CROSSES CWA LT MON NIGHT RWL AREA...TO TUE AFTN IN THE PNHNDL. POSSIBILITY OF A 1 TO 3 INCH SNWFALL ACRS SE WY INTO PERHAPS PART OF THE PNHNDL TUE AFTN/EVNG...BUT WILL NOT GO HOG WILD ON POPS JUST YET GIVEN MDL UNCERTAINITY AND A MORE NW LOW LVL FLOW. BLV FWC HIGHS TUE TOO COOL EAST OF LAR MTNS INTO THE PNHNDL...WENT MORE WITH FANS. NO PEEK AT MRF YET...WILL DO SO SHORTLY AND ADJUST EXTNDD IF NEEDED. .CYS... .WY...NONE. .NE...WIND ADVY THRU MIDDAY ZNS 1..2..3..19..20..21..54..55. JAD wy AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 257 AM CST MON MAR 6 2000 SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS 500H LONG WAVES TROFS ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S...AND VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA. AT SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH TWO LOWS WEST...THE FIRST A 996 LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AND THE SECOND A 998 LOW IN NORTHWEST NEVADA. THE WESTERN NEBRASKA LOW IS SURFACE REFLECTION OF SHORT WAVE...WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WITH MOST OF LIGHTNING NEAR LINCOLN-OMAHA. THIN BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ARE ONLY CLOUDS EAST OF ROCKIES. MODELS GENERALLY INITIALIZED WELL ON HIGH PLAINS VORT MAX WITH NGM AND RUC BETTER...AS ETA AND AVN A TOUCH FAST. HOWEVER...ETA AND AVN CAPTURED 500H FIELD BETTER IN VICINITY OF WAVE. ETA/NGM/AVN ALL HANDLED LOW ALONG SOUTH CALIFORNIA COAST WELL. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON 850H AND 700H TEMPS...ALTHOUGH AVN HANDLED THIS PAST DAY'S 850H TEMPS BEST. FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE THREE-FOLD. FIRST IS CONTINUED WARM TEMPS THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND WHETHER OR NOT WE'LL BREAK RECORDS. SECOND IS PRECIP ON DAY 3/WEDNESDAY WITH PRIMARY SHORT WAVE. THIRD IS CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY AS STATIONARY FRONTS SAGS ACROSS AREA. MODELS SHOW NEBRASKA SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN TODAY...BRINGING ONLY A BAND OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE DVN FORECAST AREA. SECOND MAJOR SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT OF WEST COAST TROUGH TO A 500H POSITION IN CENTRAL COLORADO BY 48 HOURS/00Z WED...WITH ETA A TOUCH FASTER INTO EASTERN COLORADO. BY 72 HOURS 500H LOW IS INTO WESTERN IOWA AND BY 84 HOURS/12Z THU IS NEAR DBQ OR ALO. AT SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE TROP...160 KT JET NOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT LEFT QUAD OVER DVN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALL OF THESE THINGS POINT TO LIKELY PRECIPITATION. THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY AS 850-500 STABILITIES NEAR -7. THURSDAY WILL SEE COOL OFF. ON FRIDAY...MRF SHOWS FRONT EXTENDING FROM PRIMARY LOW EXITING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TO NEW LOW IN HIGH PLAINS...SAGGING ACROSS DVN AREA. THIS COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW NORTH BEFORE IT HEADS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...NEW EUROPEAN AND NOGAPS DON'T SHOW THIS SCENARIO. AS FOR TEMPS 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED 850H TEMPS OVER DVN AT 7 DEGREE C AND 700 TEMPS AT 1 DEGREES C. MODELS AGREE MODERATELY WELL IN WARMING 850 AND 700 AT 24 HOURS TO 10 AND 3...AND AT 48 HOURS TO 12 AND 3 RESPECTIVELY. SO WARMING TREND STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF DAY 5 AS PER CURRENT FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO WILL MAKE VERY FEW CHANGES. .DVN... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. ARKELL il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 845 PM CST SUN MAR 5 2000 WILL UPDATED FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER S WINDS TONIGHT AND TO COOL LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S E OF I-55. 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN VALLEY AND RIDGING N ACROSS IN/OH TO JAMES BAY CANADA. CLEAR SKIES FOUND ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. WITH NEAREST INCOMING CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KS/NE. 00Z RUC PROGGING THIS HIGH TO CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 12Z ACROSS CENTRAL IL AS IT MAKES LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH SOUTH BREEZES STAYING UNDER 10 MPH. 994 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL WY TO LIFT NE INTO FAR WESTCENTRAL SD AND THIS FEATURE TO ONLY INCREASE S WINDS TO 10-15 MPH MON/TUE...AIDING WARMUP TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S N AND E CWA. THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S...WITH UPPER 30S/40 N CWA BY BMI/PIA REBOUNDED TO 65-70 THIS AFTERNOON...ABOUT A 35 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING. 02Z TEMPS HAVE COOLED TO 45-50 E OF I-55 AND 50-55 FROM I-55 W. ATMOSPHERE STILL QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS AROUND 40 WHICH LIE BETWEEN MILDER FWC/FAN LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AND COOLER 2M ETA LOWS OF 30-35. MAY NEED TO UPDATE AREAS E OF I-55 TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AS WINDS LIGHTER HERE AND TEMPS TO GET CLOSER TO DEWPOINTS. NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF IL WITH JUST FAR S REACHES OF STATE NEAR PAH/EVV HAVING PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS TEMPO 3SM FROM 10-13Z. .ILX... IL...NONE. HUETTL il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 340 AM CST MON MAR 6 2000 MAIN CONCERNS ARE CLOUD COVER AND SMALL PRECIP THREAT IN FIRST AND THIRD PERIODS. VIGOROUS S/W DEPICTED NICELY ON LATEST WV IMAGERY OVR WRN NE PROGGED BY 00Z GUIDANCE AND LATEST RUC TO TRACK NE INTO ERN SD THIS MRNG WITH MAIN FORCING OVR WRN ZFA. LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KTS FOCUSES ON ERN SD AND WRN ZFA THIS MORNING AND THEN PUSHES INTO NRN MN THIS AFTN AS FLOW BCMS MORE SWLY IN SOUTH RETURNING DRY AIR. DMSHG AREA OF WDLY SCT -SHRA HAS PUSHED FM NE INTO ERN SD/WRN IA SINCE 06Z ALONG WITH ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES EARLIER. 00Z ANALYSIS OF H85 REVEALED NARROW TONGUE OF MOISTURE ACRS NRN TX INTO CENTRAL KS HELPING TO FUEL PRECIP. NGM ONLY MODEL TO PICK UP ON PRECIP AT 06Z WITH AVN CHIMING IN BY 12Z...HOWEVER ETA MOST CONSISTENT WITH MID LEVEL FEATURES OVER LAST 3 RUNS. HENCE WL BE USING A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANING TWD NGM/AVN IN LATTER PERIODS AS ETA APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND SYNOPTIC FORCING. -SHRA ALSO IN TIGHT GRADIENT OF NGM 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY OVR ERN SD THIS MORNING...BUT PVU WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES NEWD. PER COORD WITH FSD...WL INCLUDE WDLY SCT WORDING OVR WRN ZFA THIS MORNING AS MID LVL TROUGH SWINGS THRU. -SHRA THREAT DROPS OFF FARTHER EAST BUT WL INCLUDE ISOLD WORDING IN ERN MN DUE TO STRENGTH OF SYSTEM. MID LEVEL TROUGHS SWINGS THRU ENTIRE AREA BY LATE AFTN WITH RDGING BUILDING BACK IN FOR TONIGHT. MAIN CONVECTION LIKELY TO FIRE ON TUE FARTHER SOUTH ACRS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS PER SWODY2. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION MAY TEAM UP WITH WEAK S/W SHOWN ON TWO MODELS TO TREK NWD INTO MN BY TUE AFTN SO WL GO WITH SML POPS IN SOUTH/WEST. STARTING OUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO SUN MORNING...HOWEVER EXPC PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. TWO FACTORS SHOULD BALANCE OUT RESULTING IN NEAR OR RECORD LEVEL TEMPS AGAIN MANY AREAS. NEAR RECORD WARMTH TO PERSIST INTO TUE WITH WARM SLY FLOW. ALSO COORD WITH DSM..DLH. .MSP...NONE. KAVINSKY mn MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 905 PM PST SUN MAR 5 2000 SYNOPSIS...COLD AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATING WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DISCUSSION...COLD CORE LOW SPREADING INTO WESTERN DESERTS WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -14C APPROACHING COAST AND HELPING KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. AIRMASS STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT DRIER IN SOUTHWEST ZONES...BUT NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES STILL BEING DOMINATED BY STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT. COLD CORE EXPECTED TO MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS MOJAVE DESERT AND INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA MONDAY WITH NGM COLDER THAN ETA...BUT NEARER TO RUC...SHOWING -13C AT H700 MB WHICH IS AT CRITICAL TEMPERATURE FOR SNOWSHOWERS DOWN TO ABOUT 2000 FEET. MODELS AGREE OMEGA UPWARDS WILL REVERSE TO DOWNWARDS LATER TONIGHT AND MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY SUBSTANTIALLY...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN MODERATELY MOIST THROUGH MONDAY MOST AREAS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ADVISORIES ENDING OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE LOW END LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MOST AREAS MONDAY WITH LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATIONS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME SHORT-TERM TRENDS. WILL RETAIN CURRENT ADVISORIES; NORTHWEST ARIZONA ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY LOOK VERY GOOD THROUGH THE NIGHT. MCQUEEN .LAS...SNOW ADVISORY FOR NV ZONES 015 AND 017>019 TONIGHT ABOVE 4000 FEET... SNOW ADVISORY FOR AZ ZONES 001 AND 003 TONIGHT ABOVE 4500 FEET... PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RNOWSWLAS STATEMENT FOR DETAILS. nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 958 AM EST MON MAR 6 2000 ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER INFLUENCE OF LARGE HIGH EASTERN 1/2 UNITED STATES. T1 NUMBERS AND THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT GOING FORECAST OF 70 TO 75 NORTHEAST COUNTIES. MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT ALONG COAST WHERE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS. CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO WIND DIRECTION ALL BUT SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CWF...WINDS COMING AROUND TO NORTH AND NEW RUC/ETA SUPPORTIVE OF NORTH WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS SHOULD BUILD A FOOT OR SO. NO CHANGES PLANNED. .ILM...NONE. JFP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 935 AM EST MON MAR 6 2000 WEAK TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND WILL BE OUT OF CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA... BRINGING MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS OKAY SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. CWF...CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT ONLY MINOR CHGS IF ANY. WINDS ARE BCMG MORE NLY ACRS SC WATERS THIS MORN. RUC MODEL SHOWS WINDS VEERING TO N ACRS ENTIRE WATERS BY 18Z...AND TREND OF WINDS BCMG NE DURG THE AFTN SEEMS RSNBLE WITH RDG AXIS RMNG W OF WATERS. .CHS... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. JH/JAC sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 925 AM EST MON MAR 6 2000 UPPER RIDGE STILL DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE IN THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH WITH DRY AIR OVER CAE CWA TODAY. RUCII SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE STILL WEST OF AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. RUCII AND MESOETA FORECAST RAOBS GIVE CAE A HIGH OF 77 TODAY AND THIS IS STILL IN ORDER WITH THE MORNING FORECAST OF 76 AT CAE AND 78 AT AGS. EASTERN PART OF CWA MAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS A TAD COOLER IN THE MIDDLE 70S BUT CSRA IN UPPER 70S. SO NO SIGFNT CHANGES EXPECTED. .CAE..NONE. TTH sc SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 937 AM CST MON MAR 6 2000 VAD WINDS AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIFORM ALMOST UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS UP TO 500 MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWS A ILL DEFINED BROAD LOW ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS MAY HAVE SET OFF THE SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH. THE MORE DOMINANT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOW HAS A VORT LOBE SWINGING THROUGH AT 27 KTS. ASSUMING NO CHANGES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE VORT LOBE WILL SWING THROUGH TEXAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. APPEARS THE WINDS WILL STAY UNIDIRECTIONAL PUMPING (OR AT LEAST KEEPING) HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL IN PLACE FOR THE ONSLAUGHT OF THE DRY LINE/NEXT COLD FRONT. LATEST RUC SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFTING CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, THEN GOING NEUTRAL OR SINKING OVER WESTERN MOST COUNTIES LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST GOOD TO GO. .EWX...NONE. 06/08/CA tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 954 AM EST MON MAR 6 2000 HI PRESS RIDGE TO CREST ACRS THE FA INTO OVRNITE TONITE. WK CF TO DROP DOWN ACRS EASTERN CANADA TONITE. 09Z RUC SHOWS NW SFC FLOW TO PERSIST TODAY (STRONGEST ON THE VT SIDE) WITH TEMPS GETTING UP INTO THE U20S (IN EXTREME NE VT) AND INTO THE U30S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS SEEMS A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. RUC ALSO SHOWS JUST SOME MID-LVL MOISTURE MOVING DOWN ACRS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...DRY BLO THAT. SAT PIX SHOW THE CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE MOVING SE ACRS ONT AND WESTERN QUE ATTM. THESE CLDS SHUD CONTINUE TO THIN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE SFC RIDGE...BUT THEY MAY START TO IMPACT THE ST LAW VLY BY AROUND 20Z AND THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMP VLY BY AROUND 23Z. LOWER CLDS CURRENTLY ACRS CENTRAL QUE APPEAR TO BE SHRINKING WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF PESKY LOW CLDS STILL HANGING TUFF ACRS EXTREME NE VT ATTM...BUT THESE CLDS SHUD DISSIPATE BY ZONE ISSUANCE. H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE (AND INCREASE WITH TIME) ACRS THE FA THRU 12Z TUE. MID-LVL MOISTURE TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE FA FROM THE NW BY LATER TONITE...BUT DEEPER LYR MOISTURE (AND ANY PCPN) TO STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER. HAVE BUMPED TODAY/S MAX TEMPS UP A LIL ON THE VT SIDE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. OTHER MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER (IN SRN VT) AND WIND SPEEDS (ACRS EASTERN/SRN VT) BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AS WELL. REMAINDER OF CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST PURELY COSMETIC. WORK ZONES OUT. FINAL ZFP AFTER QUICK LOOK AT LATEST OBS AND LAMP DATA. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED CCF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 235 PM CST MON MAR 6 2000 WATER VAPOR INDICATES DEEP UPPER LOW OVER GREAT BASIN ATTM WITH LEAD SHRTWV TROF NEARING BAJA. RUC INDICATES AN ASSOCD STRONG UPSTREAM 130KT JET LOCATED OFF CA COAST. SFC DATA INDICATES LOW LEVEL MSTR IS IN PLACE AS FAR W AS KMAF WITH DWPNT STILL IN L50S. BACKING WINDS TONIGHT TO ALLOW MSTR TO MOVE W TO THE MTNS. 40-50KT LLJ TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND WITH SOME WAA WILL KEEP A MENTION OF POPS OVERNIGHT. REAL THREAT WILL BE TMW AS AFOREMENTIONED LEAD SHRTWV TROF MOVES INTO W TX. POPS IN WRN AREAS WILL BE MAINLY EARLY AS DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WLY COMPONENT TO PRECLUDE POPS W OF PECOS IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF THE PECOS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF DRYLINE AND HEATING ALONG WITH SHRTWV ENERGY WILL ALLOW SB PARCELS TO REACH LFC. QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY WILL IT ALL COME TOGETHER. NO REAL SURPRISE THAT BEST CHANCES WILL BE FAR ERN AREAS AS THESE SRN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVE IF ANYTHING AND DESPITE RECENT UNUSUALLY EARLY SEASON W TX SVR CONVECTIVE EVENTS IT IS HARD TO HOLD MSTR IN PLACE AS FAR W AS KMAF IN MARCH. WILL LEAVE IN POPS WRN/CENTRAL PB TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLY AFTERNOON THREAT AND WILL WORD SVR NE CWFA TMW WITH IMPRESSIVE VWS. A MORE LIKELY THREAT ACROSS CWFA IS WIND. DEPENDING ON RAIN COULD BE ANOTHER "DUSTER" TMW AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY IF ETA VERIFIES WITH SHRTWV TROF MOVING ACROSS KMAF. NO REAL CHANGES PLANNED IN THE EXTENDED AS LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL FCST. COORD WITH KSJT. MAF 56/75/40/71 1200 LSA 55/72/39/70 1200 E41 57/76/41/71 1200 6R6 60/77/45/74 1200 MRF 45/68/32/64 1200 CNM 53/71/39/68 1200 .MAF... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. GPM tx