EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 310 AM PST SAT MAR 4 2000 A PACIFIC STORM MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. A SECOND AND MORE POWERFUL STORM WILL FORM OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING BELOW 3000 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MEAN MOTION OF LOW CENTER HAS BEEN SOUTH SOUTHEAST 7 KTS PAST 12 HOURS WHILE IMPULSES ROTATE ABOUT IT AT 15-25 KTS. NEXT IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW ALONG 119W AT 10Z SEEMS TO BE WELL INITIALIZED BY RUC MODEL. THIS IMPULSE WAS CARRIED FARTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA BY 04/00Z AVN MODEL WHILE EXTRAPOLATION FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC WOULD SHOW A TRACK CLOSER TO THE SRN CA/N BAJA BORDER. ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF SAN AT 0645Z SHOWED SOUTHERLY WINDS 50-100 KT BETWEEN 15K-30K FT. THIS JET IMPULSE WAS NOT THAT WELL DEPICTED IN MODELS AND COULD HELP TO OFFSET THE SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM OF THE LOW. END RESULT WOULD BE TEMPORARY CLEARING THIS MORNING/AREAS OF DENSE FOG AS DIVERGENCE ALOFT/CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH JET MAX PULLS AWAY. THEN DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH ANOTHER 5 DEGREES CELSIUS COOLING IN MID LEVELS AND ARRIVAL OF IMPULSE SET OFF LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A 180 DEGREES FLIP FROM CURRENT FORECAST...MAY TAKE THE EASY ROAD OUT AND DROP QUALIFIER OF DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEXT SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK THOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST POSITION. AVN/MRF HAS LARGE AREA OF DIVERGENCE IN THE 500- 300 MB LAYER AND GREATEST UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES AT 700 MB...-15 UBAR/SEC...MOVING OVER INNER WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FWCSAN HAS CATEGORY 5 QPF AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS GENERALLY ACCEPTED. WILL REWORD/DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY FOR A LATER START TIME AND BEEF UP PRECIPITATION THREAT/COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME PERIODS. THE 500 MB HEIGHTS/TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE 150 DECAMETERS/5 DEGREES CELSIUS LOWER THAN THE CURRENT LOW OFF THE COAST. THICKNESS FALLS OF 120 METERS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SIMPLE RULE OF THUMB AND RELATIVE CHANGE WOULD SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR 2000 FEET...SINCE MAJOR EFFECTS IN THE PERIOD 4/5 TIME RANGE AND STILL POSSIBILITY THE STRONG THERMODYNAMICS MAY END UP BEING ELSEWHERE...ECMWF HAS LOW CENTER DEEPER AND FURTHER NORTHWEST...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW AND REISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WITH HIGHER QPF/COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF DEVELOPING YET A THIRD CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST...IT MUST BE SPRING TIME...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY. TWO AT A TIME IS ABOUT ALL I CAN HANDLE PLUS ITS OUTSIDE OF DAY 5. NCEP 6 TO 10 DAY DISCUSSION INDICATED MIXED CONFIDENCE MIXED IN THIS SOLUTION...THOUGH SPLIT IN WESTERLIES WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH IS SUPPORTED BY LONG WAVE THEORY/TELECONNECTIONS. SAN 524 .SAN...MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE LAXMWSSAN. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...ISSUANCE AROUND 041300 UTC. BALFOUR ca EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 747 PM EST SAT MAR 4 2000 ZONE FORECAST...00Z ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW OFF SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THINK THAT BEST POSITION OF COLD FRONT IS SHOWN BY SURFACE THETA E GRADIENT WHICH WAS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE LOW WILL SCOOT EAST...ALLOWING FRONT TO CONTINUE SETTLING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND GRADIENT TO EASE. AFTERNOON CLOUDS HAD JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...SO ONCE THE WINDS DIE DOWN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WILL UPDATE TO REFRESH WORDING. MARINE...WINDS AT THE NEARSHORE BUOY UNDERPERFORMED THOSE OVER LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS LIKELY A STABILITY ISSUE (WARMER AIR BLOWING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE). MESO ETA AND LATEST RUC SHOW WINDS OVER THE WATERS DECREASING TO 15 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. PLAN TO KEEP ADVISORY FOR NORTH LEG AND EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IN SOUTH LEG...BUT MENTION THAT THEY ARE FOR THE OFFSHORE SEGMENTS. .MLB...SCA FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH. LASCODY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1017 AM EST SAT MAR 4 2000 PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING JUST SOUTH OF JAX ATTM. MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. TRUE FRONT REMAINS FROM ABOUT ALMA TO CROSS CITY...NOTED BY WIND DIRECTION AND DEW POINT. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE POPS OVER GEORGIA AND LOWER POPS OVER NORTH FLORIDA CWA...BUT LEAVE 30 PERCENT OVER SOUTHERN CWA. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...HOPE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH DO NOT STALL. WILL ADJUST WIND DIRECTIONS IN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR FRONT AND LEAVE TEMPS AS IS. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT ONLY GEORGIA...ACCORDING TO RUC AND MESO ETA...BUT LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE...LOW CLOUDS JUST BOUT TO MOVE INTO FLORIDA PANHANDLE ATTM. TRICKY ON WHAT TO SAY WITH RESPECT TO CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...THEN SUNNY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS POSSIBLY MAKE IT THE REGION. WILL GO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FOR FLORIDA AND BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR GEORGIA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTED ALONG COAST TO CONTINUE. BAILEY/SANTOS .JAX... GA...SCA TODAY. FL...SCA TODAY. fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 945 AM EST SAT MAR 4 2000 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A POTENT 32 UNIT H50 VORT CENTER OVER CENTRAL GA DROPPING ESE. 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW PRES NEAR AGS-AHN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG A KVDI-KVLD-K40J LINE. A WEAK/NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND IS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR KCRG-CDRF1. OVER EAST CENTRAL FL...SOME MID CLOUDS NOTED IN THE METARS/VIS SATELLITE BUT NOT TOO EXTENSIVE. 12Z RAOBS ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL SHOW MINIMAL PWATS OF 0.9-1.0". H925-850 WINDS 25 KTS AT THE CAPE/TBW TO NEAR 40-45KTS AT JAX. WITH SOME DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR IN THE 12Z XMR RAOB...EXPECT AFTNN DEW POINTS TO FALL BACK FROM M60S TO M50S-60F...YIELDING UNIMPRESSIVE THERMO PROFILE WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE/CAPE. AM TOTALLY DISREGARDING AVN PWAT BAND NEAR 1.4" BY 18Z OVER CENTRAL CWA. DECENT H50 PVA/H70 VV PUSHES OFFSHORE WELL NORTH OF AREA AND LAGS WEAK PVA WILL WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. AT BEST...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE CURRENT ZFP WILL DO. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SPORADIC LTG WITH THE BAND UP NORTH...AM TEMPTED TO REMOVE THUNDER EVERYWHERE BUT FAR NORTH...AND WILL DO SO IF DEW POINTS FALL BACK AS EXPECTED. MARINE...BY 18Z THE ETA DEPICTS THE SURFACE DAB-VRB GRADIENT NEARLY A FULL MB TIGHTER THAN EITHER THE NGM/AVN...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER END OF WIND FORECAST WITH THE NGM/AVN STAYING CLOSER TO 20KT. ALL IN ALL FORECAST LOOKS OK...BUT WILL LIKELY SHADE THE SEAS BACK A LITTLE CLOSER TO SHORE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WINDS. FIRE WEATHER...SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINT AIR AND SUSTAINED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY QUESTION IS HOW LOW WILL DEWPOINTS...AND THUS RH VALUES...GET. EXPECT STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS TO KEEP THEM ABOVE THE 35% THRESHOLD. THEREFORE...COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR BE MORE VULNERABLE TO REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS WITH HIGHEST TEMPS AND LOWEST RH VALUES EXPECTED THERE. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO RED FLAG WARNING. .MLB...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60NM OFFSHORE. CRISTALDI fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 755 PM CST SAT MAR 4 2000 WILL LET CURRENT FORECAST ZONES RIDE TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WSW WINDS OCCUR...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 01Z SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWS 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER N LA AND RIDGING NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. RUC MODEL KEEPING THIS HIGH ANCHORED THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING AND WSW WINDS UNDER 10 MPH. 7 PM TEMPS BETWEEN 45-50 WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. WSW WINDS 6-12 MPH NW OF I-70 AND 3-6 MPH SE TO CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE LIGHER TONIGHT WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. FWC/FAN GUIDANCE PAINTS LOWS BETWEEN 35-40...WHILE AGREE WITH CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S WHICH MATCH ETA 2M TEMPS AT 12Z. COOLEST READINGS AROUND 30 TO OCCUR SE OF I-70 AND NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER FROM CMI/DNV S TO LWV. NOTICED THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE 20S EVEN GOT A CATEGORY COOLER THAN ETA 2M TEMPS AND DEWPOINT VALUES 24 HOURS AGO. PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS RESTRICTED AOB 3SM OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND S OF A KSPI-KHUF AS EXPECTED WHERE RAIN/SNOW OCCURRED ON FRI. AMPLE SUNSHINE/DRYING THAT OCCURRED TODAY HAS DRIED OUT THE SURFACE AND WILL LIMIT AMOUNT OF FOG FORMATION TONIGHT DESPITE TEMPS LOWERING TOWARD DEWPOINT LEVELS. PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH IL...S OF HIGHWAY 50/LWV...WHILE OUR CWA COULD SEE VSBYS LOWER TO 3-6SM FROM 10-14Z...THOUGH NOT QUITE LOW ENOUGH TO MENTION IN ZONES. .ILX... IL...NONE. HUETTL il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 215 PM EST SAT MAR 4 2000 UPPER LOW MOVING TO THE EAST OVER THE CAE CWA NOW. RUCII SHOWS CAA AT H8 NOW AND HAVE DROPPED SEVERE TSTM WATCH OVER AREA. MSAS MSLP SHOWS SURFACE LOWS MOVED DOWN NEAR THE COAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY PLEASANT SPRING-LIKE WX. FWC TEMPS AND POPS LOOKED OK BUT WILL SHAVE 1-2 DEGS OFF CAE HIGHS. PRELIM CCF: CAE UU 039/073 041/076 046 07000 AGS UU 041/076 040/078 044 07000 .CAE...NONE. TTH sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 937 AM EST SAT MAR 4 2000 ACCORDING TO RUC MODEL SFC LOW SW OF CAE THIS AM SHUD BEGIN MORE OF AN E OR ESE MOVMT MOVG NR OR JUST N OF CHS ARND 18Z. SLY WINDS ACRS FA WILL BECOME NLY DURG THE AFTN. WILL MAKE ONLY MNR WIND ADJUSTMENTS IF ANY. VSBL SATL SHOWS WRAP ARND CLDNS SHUD PERSIST ACRS NRN SXNS DURG AFTN WITH MOCLDY SKIES. PTCLDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS SRN AREAS WITH A LTL MORE HTG. WITH COLD POOL ALFT MOVG ACRS AREA LTR...AMS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENUF FOR SCT TO WDLY SCT TSRA ACRS FA DURG THE AFTN. CURRENTLY MSAS DATA SHOWS THTE RDG WITH BEST LOW LVL MSTR ACRS GA CNTYS. GTST INSTABILITY WAS ALSO NOTED ACRS THIS AREA ATTM. WILL KEEP FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE FOR SC CNTYS...AND ARND 70 TO THE MID 70S ACRS GA CNTYS THIS AFTN. CWF...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WOULD INDICATE THAT FORECAST IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. EXPECT WINDS TO COME AROUND TO NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED ON MORNING UPDATE. .CHS... SC...NONE. GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND OUT 60 NM. JAC/JH sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 930 AM EST SAT MAR 4 2000 SHWRS AND TSTMS MOVG INTO CNTRL SC CONT TO WKEN AS AMS STBL IN THS AREA. HIER CAPES ACRS NW SC AND SRN CSTL SECTIONS ATTM. MSTR CHNL SHWS UPR LO OVR EXTRM NERN GA AND MOVG SEWD. ACCORDG TO RUC LO WL PASS JUST S OF CAE ARND 18Z AND INTO CSTL AREA BY 21Z. MODELS ALSO SHW 8H CAA BEGINNG TO MOV INTO WRN SECTIONS ATTM. BST LO LVL WAA S AND E TDA. WL KP BST CHANCE OF T ACRS AGS AND OGB THRU MID AFTN. LO LVL CAA MOVG INTO AREA SHUD STBLZ AMS. TEMPS ACRS NRN TIER IN THE MID 50S WHILE ALG SRN COUNTIES MAY GET TO LOWER 60S. TA .CAE...NONE. sc SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 835 PM CST SAT MAR 4 2000 CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. SFC HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE LA WITH RIDGE AXIS INTO E ZONES. NEAR CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH DW PTS WHICH RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SE TX. LATEST RUC INDICATES SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ABOVE THE SFC AND BEGIN TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO FA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST ZONES TONIGHT. IR SAT LOOP SUPPORTS THIS AS 6 KFT DECK IS MAKING GOOD NORTHWARD PROGRESS OUT OF S TX. WITH VERY LIMITED SFC MOISTURE...EXPECT TO SEE ONLY GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ANY FOG OUT OF ZONES. ONLY CHANGE FOR UPDATE IS TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER WORDING FOR TIMING OF STRATO-CU DECK. .KHGX...NONE. 33/47 PREVIOUS PRELIMS... CLL EE 043/070 055/075 061 000 IAH EE 045/071 057/076 060 000 GLS EE 053/068 062/071 063 000 tx DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 320 AM CST SUN MAR 5 2000 CURRENT BATCH OF RAIN OVER CWA THAT WAS NOT PROGGED BY YESTERDAY'S MODELS IS BEING HANDLED BEST BY ETA THIS MORNING. IT HAS THE CULPRIT VORT MAX IN ABOUT THE RIGHT LOCATION WITH THE BEST TIMING TO MATCH WHAT IS OCCURRING AT PRESENT TIME. IT TAKES THIS VORT MAX AND ITS PVA NEWD OUT OF OUR CWA AFTER DAYBREAK. AREA OF POSITIVE OMEGA/LIFT ALSO CORRESPONDS WITH THIS PVA AREA CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR RIO GRANDE IN THE RIO GRANDE CITY AREA. RUC ANALYSIS ALSO BEARS THIS OUT. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME LOW POPS FOR EARLY MORNING HOURS AND TREND TO NO POPS BY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH MOIST ELY FLOW IN LOW LEVELS WHICH VEERS TO S AND SW 5-10 THSD FT WHILE STILL MOIST BELOW INVERSION AROUND 9-10 THSD. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO SE DURING DAY BUT CLOUD COVER WILL COUNTERACT POTENTIAL WARMING SOMEWHAT...A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW FWC MAX TEMPS TODAY. SE WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS IN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH POWERFUL UPPER LOW MOVING INTO ROCKIES FROM W COAST. THIS LOW STILL DESTINED FOR CENTRAL PLAINS...TOO FAR N TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THREAT HERE. AVN/MRF STILL HOLDING ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HERE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT FEEL STRENGTHENING S WIND WILL NEGATE CONVECTION THREAT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AWAY FROM THOSE TWO DAYS AS OUR LATEST ZONES AND EXTENDED FORECAST ARE DOING. AS WINDS DROP OFF AHEAD OF FRONT WEDNESDAY...COULD SEE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR FEW SHOWERS AS FRONT APPROACHES AND PROVIDES SOME LIFT AND FORCING. CHANCES STILL SLIGHT HOWEVER. COULD SEE MORE FORCEFUL COOLING BEHIND THAT FRONT BY THURSDAY AS THICKNESSES PACKED A BIT TIGHTER AND SURFACE HIGH COMING DOWN IN MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FROM NW. MARINE... RIDGE HOLDING CLOSE TO NRN GULF TODAY TO PROVIDE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. SWAPS IN 2-4 FT RANGE TIL MONDAY WHEN SELY WINDS INCREASE TO RAISE SEAS INTO 4-6 FT RANGE. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MON NIGHT OR TUE BEFORE WE HAVE TO CONSIDER SCA FLAGS AGAIN. BRO EE 078/067 082/069 084 20/05/05/05 MFE EE 080/067 084/069 086 20/05/05/05 RGC EE 080/065 086/068 088 20/05/05/05 SPI EE 075/069 078/070 080 20/05/05/05 SYN...57.KN/MESO...62.JW .BRO...NONE. tx SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 905 AM MST SUN MAR 5 2000 ...UPDATE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING FOR ZONES AND STATE PRODUCTS... MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS. LAST NIGHTS RUN SHOWED A LARGE DIVERGENCE AFTER 24 HOURS AND WHAT MODELS HAVE FILTERED IN SHOW THE SAME. 12Z RUC IS LINING UP WITH LAST NIGHTS AVN RUN WHILE THE NEW ETA IS SHOWING A WEAKER SOLUTION THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE PROBLEMS PERSIST BOTH ON AWIPS AND EVEN ON THE INTERNET. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOW FIRST LOW NEAR SLC WITH TROF OFF WEST COAST CONTINUING TO SHARPEN. MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO BEFORE SWINGING IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS PRIMARILY NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. WITH SFC HIGH ACROSS CANADA AND LOW SWINGING UP WINDS SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL INHIBIT TEMPERATURES. LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING AT LETHBRIDGE THIS MORNING AND SPOTTER REPORTS FROM OUT EAST INDICATE FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS A LOT OF THE CWA...BASED ON SFC OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT'S ABOUT 2 HOURS OLD...WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE ELSEWHERE. NO OTHER CHANGES WILL BE FORTHCOMING BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD UNTIL ALL MODELS COME IN BUT A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GTF 175 HLN 145 HVR 247 mt