EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 310 AM PST FRI MAR 3 2000 A STORM HAS TEMPORARILY STALLED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA-MEXICAN BORDER TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER AND MUCH COLDER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. BASED ON SHIFT BRIEFING AND PAST PERFORMANCE OF MODELS...RUC/AVIATION ARE THE MODELS TO GO WITH FOR THE SHORT AND NEAR TERM FORECAST SOLUTION. IN THE SHORT RANGE...CENTER OF LOW/COLD POOL TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH NEXT 12 HOURS. MOSTLY CHANNEL FLOW OVER LAND WHILE ANOTHER 15 DEGREES OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE BETWEEN THE 750 AND 400 MB LAYER OVER COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. LITTLE PROGRESS INLAND EXPECTED OF STRONG THERMODYNAMICS TAKING PLACE OVER WATER TODAY. CHANNEL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS WITH STACKED CLOSED LOW AND FLOW PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAIN RIDGE LINES...SO LITTLE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AVAILABLE. HOWEVER SPEED MAX THAT EXITED SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION AROUND 02Z AND DROPPING SOUTH AT 35 KNOTS ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW AND NUDGES DIVERGENCE ALOFT/SECONDARY FRONTAL BAND INLAND OVER ORANGE COUNTY/INLAND EMPIRE TODAY. THE RUC MODEL FORECAST VALID 03/21Z SHOWS A -2 UBAR IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER CENTERED OVER CHINO HILLS AREA WITH ANOTHER/LARGER DIVERGENT AREA OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST CENTERED NEAR 29N 117.5W. CONNECT THE DOTS AND THE AREA TO THE WEST SHOULD DEFINE THE PRECIPITATION FIELD. HENCE WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS OVER ORANGE COUNTY TODAY THAN IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. OVER THE INLAND EMPIRE HOWEVER THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN TENDING OFFSHORE PAST 24 HOURS OVER SAN BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE/ORANGE COUNTIES...AND FORECAST TO INCREASE TO -12 MB KSNA-KSLC THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY OFFSET COOLING THAT FOLLOWED DRY FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES INLAND EMPIRE TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAY MAXIMUMS AND KEEP LOW LEVELS DRY...OR THE WARMUP ONLY ACCENTUATES THE INSTABILITY IF THE MODELS ARE TOO FAR WEST WITH CENTER OF COLD AIR. AM LEANING TOWARDS CUTTING POPS THERE BACK TO 20 PERCENT TODAY...WILL HOLD FINAL DECISION TO LAST MINUTE. FOR TONIGHT THE CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO MAKE ITS TREK INLAND AS A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA/SONORA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY. THIS PLACES THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER. GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SAN DIEGO COUNTY WILL HAVE HIGHER THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THERE AND GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE VARIABLE CLOUD FORECAST TO COVER BRIEF CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS TRANSITORY RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE MOVES ACROSS. MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...MODELS SIMILAR WITH HANDLING OF BOTH THE EJECTION OF THE FIRST LOW AND THE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD/REDEVELOPMENT OF SECONDARY AND STRONGER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND ITS SUBSEQUENT CYCLONIC TRACK ACROSS SW CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA TO NW SONORA THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA. ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST BY THE MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE MRF WHICH IS THE ONLY ONE AVAILABLE AT FIELD OFFICES IN SUFFICIENT DETAIL BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES DROP 160 METERS WITH A 5270 METER CORE MOVING ACROSS NWSO SAN DIEGO COUNTY WARNING AREA...WITH THE JET CORE AND THE GREATEST DIVERGENCE IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SOUTH AND EAST. A SLIGHT SHIFT W OR SW IN THE TRACK OF THE COLD AIR POOL WILL PULL THIS AREA WESTWARD. THE PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF THE APRIL 1 1999 HEAVY SNOW EVENT THAT CAUSED 8 DEATHS/13 INJURIES FROM HYPOTHERMIA IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND RESULTED IN A MASSIVE SEARCH AND RESCUE MISSION ON BOTH SIDES OF THE US/MEXICO BORDER TO SAVE ANOTHER 85-158 STRANDED PEOPLE. WILL WORK UP A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TOWARDS END OF WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BE UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WATCH IF SUBSEQUENT MODELS/FORECASTERS AGREE. ANOTHER BUSY WEEKEND. SAN 376 .SAN...NONE ATTM...WILL ISSUE SPS ON UPCOMING STORM AROUND 031330Z. BALFOUR ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 915 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2000 UPDATED CENTRAL IL ZONES TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...BUMP DOWN LOWS AND ADD PATCHY FOG SOUTH OF I-72. RUC 1000-500MB 50% RH LINES UP WELL WITH NORTHERN EDGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK S OF A KSPI-KIND CORRIDOR PER 0245Z IR SAT IMAGE. RUC SHOWING THIS CLOUD DECK COVERING JUST 6 SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT AND SINKING S OF LWV JUST AFTER 09Z. 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR N TX AND RIDGING NE ACROSS N IL WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE S ACROSS CENTRAL IL ENSURING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NNW WINDS. LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING SOUTH AS 03Z DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S N CWA AND LOW-MID 30S S CWA. NEARLY SIMILAR FWC/FAN NOS REFLECTING LOWS AROUND 30 TONIGHT. BUT WITH GOOD RADIATION COOLING...LIKED COOLER 2M-ETA LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S...WITH LOWER 30S 6 SOUTHERN TIER COUTIES. RAIN AND SNOW OCCURRED TODAY ALONG AND S OF A KSPI-KHUF LINE...WITH KILX 88D ESTIMATING QPF OVER A QUARTER INCH W OF A MORRISONVILLE TO KEFF TO FLORA LINE. THIS ADDED SFC MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR EARLY. HUETTL il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 225 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2000 18Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF ILLINOIS. SOUTH PART BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... CENTERED IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. RADAR RETURNS SO FAR TODAY HAVE SHOWN AN AREA OF MIXED PRECIP SOUTH OF I-72. PRECIP HAS HAD A DEVIL OF A TIME TRYING TO GET NORTH TO SPI...WITH ONLY A COUPLE FLURRIES AND ICE PELLETS THERE. CALLS TO COOP OBSERVERS AND SHERIFFS DEPARTMENTS INDICATE AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF SNOW AROUND MORRISONVILLE (SOUTHERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY)...WITH OTHER AREAS ALTERNATING BETWEEN RAIN/SNOW. LOW LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF ILLINOIS HAS FINALLY TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE PRECIPITATION...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND INDICATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE GONE BY ZONE TIME. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE WHETHER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MENTIONED THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN THAT...MAIN PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING...EXTENT OF THE WARMUP EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...THEN THREAT OF RAIN/STORMS MIDWEEK. CLOUD COVER IN IL HAS BEEN TRYING TO SCATTER OUT NORTH OF I-74...AND WAS CLEAR NORTH OF I-80. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RUC 60% RH FIELDS. THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL BE PULLING SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...SO SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE EVENING IN OUR CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTH OF I-70...WHERE THEY MAY HANG ON LONGER...PER RUC GUIDANCE. ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF TAKING CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION DURING THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A NICE WARMUP. FAN/FWC GUIDANCE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN FWC WARMS UP MORE AS RIDGE DRIFTS ACROSS. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR SUNDAY...GOING WITH THE CURRENT MID 60S...AND GO NEAR GUIDANCE BEFORE THAT. IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH RIDGE ON TOP OF US. WE THEN SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. THINK THE MANUAL PROGS ARE TOO FAST...IN BRINGING COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PROBABLY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO A IRK-SGF LINE...WHICH WOULD KEEP US WARM FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. WILL NOT GO TOO OVERBOARD WITH TEMPS...BUT WILL GO ABOVE FMR NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WILL STICK WITH GOING FORECAST OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY... BUT MOST WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD BE INTERESTING IN ANY CASE. PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORD ONLY. SPI UU 030/059 039/066 046 72000 PIA UU 030/060 039/066 045 72000 DEC UU 030/059 039/066 046 72000 CMI UU 028/059 039/066 046 72000 MTO UU 030/061 037/066 044 72600 LWV UU 033/061 037/067 045 72400 .ILX... IL...NONE. GEELHART/KETCHAM il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 530 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2000 ZONES ARE GOING TO NEED AN EARLY UPDATE THIS MORNING. DRY SLOT IS SURGING EWD ACROSS NW LA...AND LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH ARE NOT COMING SOUTH QUITE AS FAST AS THE RUC EARLIER INDICATED. NEED TO ADJUST SKY WORDING IN SOME OF THE GROUPS...PARTICULARLY ALONG I-20...TO HAVE SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING CLOUDS. WILL ALSO BACK THE 30 POPS IN THE EAST DOWN TO 20 BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. 05 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 855 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2000 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAKENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GUSTY WINDS THAT LINGERED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OVER AREA HAVE PRETTY WELL DIED DOWN. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA... WHILE CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY COVERS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT... REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. 18Z ETA AND LATE AFTERNOON RUC MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE... WITH RH PROGS SHOWING CLOUDINESS REMAINING WHERE IT IS OR EVEN SAGGING A LITTLE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL CHANGE WORDING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS COULD BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SHOULD DOMINATE... ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM FREDERICKSBURG TO STAUNTON. DEW POINTS OVER THE AREA ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND LATE AFTERNOON RUC SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING CONSTANT THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST SURFACE OBS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM AWS AND MDOT SITES ALL SHOW TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.. AND THE FACT THAT THEY HAVEN'T DROPPED VERY MUCH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS GIVES ME CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WON'T NOSE DIVE OVERNIGHT. WILL LOWER MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AROUND THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.. BUT MIN FORECASTS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA LOOK PRETTY GOOD. .LWX...NONE. MARGRAF! md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1000 AM EST FRI MAR 3 2000 AN AREA OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAE CWA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. SOME FAIRLY THICK CI WITH VIRGA PRESENT. CAE 88D IS PICKING UP SOME OF THIS VIRGA. RUCII AND ETA SHOW MOISTURE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. STILL LIKE THE PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RUCII KEEPS SURFACE RIDGE MAINLY OVER PIEDMONT SOUTH CAROLINA WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. SO DON'T EXPECT ANY CHANGES. .CAE...NONE. TTH sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 330 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2000 MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE COVEREAGE, CHANCES AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FORECAST AREA (FA) FOR TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AGAIN TODAY. UPPER LOW AND MOISTURE MOVE EAST INTO WEST KENTUCKY THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO TENNESSEE. THIS WILL KEEP GREATEST PART OF THE RAIN THAT IS NEAREST TO THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF FA. HOWEVER...DEFORMATION ZONE AS SEEN ON SATELLITE HAS BROUGHT A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. THIS IS FARTHER NORTH THAN INDICATED BY EARLIER MODEL RUNS OF RH...TIME SECTIONS OR ISENTROPIC LIFT. AVN AND 18Z RUC HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. AVN AND RUC HOLDS MOSTURE ALONG OHIO RIVER THROUGH EVENING THEN AVN DROPS TO SOUTH. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING IN WORDING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN HALF OF FA. THE NEXT PROBLEMS IS TYPE. AIRCRAFT SOUNDING AROUND NOON SHOWS TEMPREATURES ONLY FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO IN LOWER LAYERS WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF SOME SLEET AND EVEN A LITTLE SNOW MIXED WITH THE RAIN. EXPECT LITTLE WARMER OR COOLER AIR ADDED AND WILL KEEP A LITTLE MIXTURE IN FORECAST. PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FA...WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE MORNING AS LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO TENNESSEE. AS SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS DECREASE RAPIDLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY AND TENNESSE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND AND A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPRATURES BY SUNDAY. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MOS TEMPERATURES. .SDF...NONE. SCHOLZ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 145 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2000 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER VICINITY OF THE WRN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER AT 19Z. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DID WELL WITH THE POSITION OF THE CENTER...CONSIDERABLY MORE DRY AIR WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM THAN EXPECTED. INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP MOVED NORTH OF EVV-MVN LINE AROUND 19Z...WITH SOME SLEET REPORTED IN SW INDIANA. ANOTHER SMALLER BUT MORE INTENSE PRECIP AREA TUCKED IN CLOSE TO THE VORT CENTER WAS ENTERING SE MISSOURI AT 19Z. LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEM INDICATED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS MOVEMENT OF UPPER VORT CENTER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP THIS EVENING. THE SYSTEM IS SLOWER THAN PROGGED BY YESTERDAYS MODELS. RUC/ETA/NGM ARE SIMILAR...TAKING UPPER LOW CENTER TO WRN TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER BY 06Z. GIVEN THIS MOVEMENT...RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER SW KENTUCKY. NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIP TONIGHT. RADARS SHOW A NARROW EAST/WEST BAND OF RAIN ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER. EXTRAPOLATING THE MOVEMENT OF THIS BAND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF CGI-PAH-HOP LINE TONIGHT. GIVEN THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF WEST KENTUCKY. AFTER THAT...THERE IS LITTLE WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF DIGGING A SHARP TROUGH OVER THE FAR WEST...WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF WARM DRY WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY. WILL TWEAK NGM MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY...MAINLY BECAUSE NGM/ETA SHOW 850 RIDGE AXIS STILL WEST OF THE FA SUNDAY MORNING. WARMING SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY AS 850 FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. MRF/CANADIAN MODEL DATA INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY BE KICKED EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL STATES WEDNESDAY. NOGAPS IS ABOUT A DAY FASTER. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP IN FOR TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR FASTER NOGAPS SOLUTION. MRF SHOWS INCREASING 850 MOISTURE TUESDAY...WITH SHOWALTERS FALLING TO NEAR 0 OVER MISSOURI. .PAH...NONE. MY ky SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 250 AM CST SAT MAR 4 2000 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CENTERED OVER GEORGIA WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXTENDS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA... PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. FORECAST PERIOD... TODAY...QUESTION WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WHICH IN TURN AFFECTS THE POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS. LOOKING AT 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON THE RUC AND ETA...BELIEVE CLOUD DECK WILL MAKE IT TO JUST NORTH OF A LAKE CHARLES TO LAFAYETTE LINE BY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST AND SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. WILL CUT BACK HIGH TEMPS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM WHAT I WAS THINKING YESTERDAY...AS AREA WILL SEE LESS SUNSHINE. ON THE MARINE SIDE...WILL KEEP UP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. TONIGHT...HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE AT A MAX. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND CLOSER TO FAN IN THIS SITUATION. SUNDAY...HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. WITH RETURN FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY. EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND INCREASE HUMIDITY VALUES. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON WED AS PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. .LCH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO HIGH ISLAND TX...SCA GMZ450-470 LA...SCA GMZ450-455-470-475 7-RUA PRELIM NUMBERS... LCH 68/42/72/52 0000 LFT 67/41/72/52 0000 AEX 63/38/71/48 0000 BPT 68/44/73/53 0000 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 115 AM CST SAT MAR 4 2000 CHILLY LATE WINTER DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER WILL BLANKET THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT LOOKING AT THE ETA AND LATEST RUNS OF THE RUC IT LOOKS LIKE THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SCATTERING OUT BY AFTERNOON. A S/WV RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS TX AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO S-SE. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE INTO NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THOSE FAN TEMPS THAT LOOKED TOO COLD 24 HOURS AGO ARE LOOKING A LOT BETTER NOW. ETA AND NGM APPARENTLY UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA BEHIND THIS LAST SYSTEM. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE SETS THIS MORNING...AND SEE NO REASON TO GO AGAINST THEM. 05 PRELIMS... SHV 59/39/71/49 0000 MLU 59/40/69/49 0000 TXK 58/40/70/49 0000 TYR 61/42/72/50 0000 LFK 63/40/72/50 0000 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 832 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2000 SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. SURFACE WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOW WELL TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE NORTHEAST AR/WEST TN BORDER. KNQA 88D HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST AR INTO PART OF WEST TN AND NORTH MS THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION...IR SATELLITE INDICATES INCREASING ENHANCEMENT ACROSS WEST TN. LATEST RUC MODEL FORECAST UPPER LOW TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO MIDDLE TN/NORTH AL BORDER BY 09Z. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ZONES. REMOVED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS MOST AREAS. ALSO REWORDED WIND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THINK RAIN WILL LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND MUCH OF WEST TN...DO WILL DROP WORDING OF MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR THESE AREAS. CURRENT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT OK AS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL HELP TO HOLD THEM UP. .MEM...NONE. tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 915 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2000 AS SOMEWHAT EXPECTED...NOT MUCH PCPN JUST YET IN OUR FORCEAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 00Z SHOWED LOW BETWEEN MEI-TCL AND MOVING EAST AS PROGD. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL AL INTO S HALF OF GA ...AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVED STAYED GENERALLY ALONG OR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. SOME SCTRD SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS SE TN/SW NC. BASED ON MESOETA AND LATEST RUC MODEL...APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE GOOD LIFT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AFTER 06Z AS UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY MOVING SE OVER W HALF OF TN) MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THINKING IS THAT BULK OF PCPN WILL GENERALLY AFFECT AREAS FROM OAK RIDGE TO MORRISTOWN TO GREENEVILLE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. WILL LIKELY KEEP IN CHC OF TSTMS FOR SE TN/SW NC...WHERE VORT MAX AND COLDEST MID LVL TEMPS TRACK ACROSS. HAD SOME REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL FROM WEAK ACTIVITY THAT WENT THRU THE AREA EARLIER TODAY...AND THIS MIGHT HAPPEN AGAIN AS STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING OCCURS. HOWEVER...NOT CONVINCED THAT 850 TEMPS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GET COLD ENUFF FOR ANY SNOW IN OUR EXTREME NE ZONES WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONSIDER TRIMMING BACK POPS FURTHER N...ESPECIALLY OVER SWRN VA ZONES WHERE CURRENT DEWPTS ARE STILL IN THE 20S. AN UPDATE OF ALL ZONES WILL FOLLOW...BUT NOT UNTIL AROUND OR JUST AFTER 10PM EST. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. TG tn EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 310 AM PST SAT MAR 4 2000 A PACIFIC STORM MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. A SECOND AND MORE POWERFUL STORM WILL FORM OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING BELOW 3000 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MEAN MOTION OF LOW CENTER HAS BEEN SOUTH SOUTHEAST 7 KTS PAST 12 HOURS WHILE IMPULSES ROTATE ABOUT IT AT 15-25 KTS. NEXT IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW ALONG 119W AT 10Z SEEMS TO BE WELL INITIALIZED BY RUC MODEL. THIS IMPULSE WAS CARRIED FARTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA BY 04/00Z AVN MODEL WHILE EXTRAPOLATION FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC WOULD SHOW A TRACK CLOSER TO THE SRN CA/N BAJA BORDER. ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF SAN AT 0645Z SHOWED SOUTHERLY WINDS 50-100 KT BETWEEN 15K-30K FT. THIS JET IMPULSE WAS NOT THAT WELL DEPICTED IN MODELS AND COULD HELP TO OFFSET THE SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM OF THE LOW. END RESULT WOULD BE TEMPORARY CLEARING THIS MORNING/AREAS OF DENSE FOG AS DIVERGENCE ALOFT/CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH JET MAX PULLS AWAY. THEN DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH ANOTHER 5 DEGREES CELSIUS COOLING IN MID LEVELS AND ARRIVAL OF IMPULSE SET OFF LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A 180 DEGREES FLIP FROM CURRENT FORECAST...MAY TAKE THE EASY ROAD OUT AND DROP QUALIFIER OF DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEXT SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK THOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST POSITION. AVN/MRF HAS LARGE AREA OF DIVERGENCE IN THE 500- 300 MB LAYER AND GREATEST UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES AT 700 MB...-15 UBAR/SEC...MOVING OVER INNER WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FWCSAN HAS CATEGORY 5 QPF AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS GENERALLY ACCEPTED. WILL REWORD/DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY FOR A LATER START TIME AND BEEF UP PRECIPITATION THREAT/COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME PERIODS. THE 500 MB HEIGHTS/TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE 150 DECAMETERS/5 DEGREES CELSIUS LOWER THAN THE CURRENT LOW OFF THE COAST. THICKNESS FALLS OF 120 METERS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SIMPLE RULE OF THUMB AND RELATIVE CHANGE WOULD SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR 2000 FEET...SINCE MAJOR EFFECTS IN THE PERIOD 4/5 TIME RANGE AND STILL POSSIBILITY THE STRONG THERMODYNAMICS MAY END UP BEING ELSEWHERE...ECMWF HAS LOW CENTER DEEPER AND FURTHER NORTHWEST...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW AND REISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WITH HIGHER QPF/COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF DEVELOPING YET A THIRD CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST...IT MUST BE SPRING TIME...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY. TWO AT A TIME IS ABOUT ALL I CAN HANDLE PLUS ITS OUTSIDE OF DAY 5. NCEP 6 TO 10 DAY DISCUSSION INDICATED MIXED CONFIDENCE MIXED IN THIS SOLUTION...THOUGH SPLIT IN WESTERLIES WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH IS SUPPORTED BY LONG WAVE THEORY/TELECONNECTIONS. SAN 524 .SAN...MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE LAXMWSSAN. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...ISSUANCE AROUND 041300 UTC. BALFOUR ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1017 AM EST SAT MAR 4 2000 PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING JUST SOUTH OF JAX ATTM. MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. TRUE FRONT REMAINS FROM ABOUT ALMA TO CROSS CITY...NOTED BY WIND DIRECTION AND DEW POINT. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE POPS OVER GEORGIA AND LOWER POPS OVER NORTH FLORIDA CWA...BUT LEAVE 30 PERCENT OVER SOUTHERN CWA. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...HOPE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH DO NOT STALL. WILL ADJUST WIND DIRECTIONS IN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR FRONT AND LEAVE TEMPS AS IS. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT ONLY GEORGIA...ACCORDING TO RUC AND MESO ETA...BUT LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE...LOW CLOUDS JUST BOUT TO MOVE INTO FLORIDA PANHANDLE ATTM. TRICKY ON WHAT TO SAY WITH RESPECT TO CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...THEN SUNNY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS POSSIBLY MAKE IT THE REGION. WILL GO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FOR FLORIDA AND BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR GEORGIA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTED ALONG COAST TO CONTINUE. BAILEY/SANTOS .JAX... GA...SCA TODAY. FL...SCA TODAY. fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 945 AM EST SAT MAR 4 2000 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A POTENT 32 UNIT H50 VORT CENTER OVER CENTRAL GA DROPPING ESE. 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW PRES NEAR AGS-AHN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG A KVDI-KVLD-K40J LINE. A WEAK/NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND IS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR KCRG-CDRF1. OVER EAST CENTRAL FL...SOME MID CLOUDS NOTED IN THE METARS/VIS SATELLITE BUT NOT TOO EXTENSIVE. 12Z RAOBS ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL SHOW MINIMAL PWATS OF 0.9-1.0". H925-850 WINDS 25 KTS AT THE CAPE/TBW TO NEAR 40-45KTS AT JAX. WITH SOME DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR IN THE 12Z XMR RAOB...EXPECT AFTNN DEW POINTS TO FALL BACK FROM M60S TO M50S-60F...YIELDING UNIMPRESSIVE THERMO PROFILE WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE/CAPE. AM TOTALLY DISREGARDING AVN PWAT BAND NEAR 1.4" BY 18Z OVER CENTRAL CWA. DECENT H50 PVA/H70 VV PUSHES OFFSHORE WELL NORTH OF AREA AND LAGS WEAK PVA WILL WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. AT BEST...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE CURRENT ZFP WILL DO. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SPORADIC LTG WITH THE BAND UP NORTH...AM TEMPTED TO REMOVE THUNDER EVERYWHERE BUT FAR NORTH...AND WILL DO SO IF DEW POINTS FALL BACK AS EXPECTED. MARINE...BY 18Z THE ETA DEPICTS THE SURFACE DAB-VRB GRADIENT NEARLY A FULL MB TIGHTER THAN EITHER THE NGM/AVN...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER END OF WIND FORECAST WITH THE NGM/AVN STAYING CLOSER TO 20KT. ALL IN ALL FORECAST LOOKS OK...BUT WILL LIKELY SHADE THE SEAS BACK A LITTLE CLOSER TO SHORE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WINDS. FIRE WEATHER...SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINT AIR AND SUSTAINED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY QUESTION IS HOW LOW WILL DEWPOINTS...AND THUS RH VALUES...GET. EXPECT STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS TO KEEP THEM ABOVE THE 35% THRESHOLD. THEREFORE...COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR BE MORE VULNERABLE TO REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS WITH HIGHEST TEMPS AND LOWEST RH VALUES EXPECTED THERE. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO RED FLAG WARNING. .MLB...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60NM OFFSHORE. CRISTALDI fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 150 AM EST SAT MAR 4 2000 PER RUC/WV OVERLAY UPPER LOW WAS NOW LOCATED OVER WRN TN...SFC LOW WAS NOW MOVING INTO GA AND WARM FRONT WAS INVOF THE CENTRAL GA COAST. RADARS TO THE W HAVE BEEN FAIRLY ACTIVE...AND WE CONT TO SEE CONVECTION W/ IN THE UPPER LOW ITSELF. CURRENTLY THERE ARE AREAS OF RAFL MOVING ACROSS W AND SW SC. THE THREE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT W/ MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF SFC-UPPER LOWS. THE ETA SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FM RUN TO RUN. UPPER LOW PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SC. THIS ALL IMPLIES VERY GOOD RA CHANCES W/ SIGNIFICANT UVM CROSSING THE FA TODAY SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT/SFC LOW. WARM FRONT AND SLIGHLTY BETTER CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MAY SNEAK INTO EXTREME SRN FA SO WILL ADD MENTION OF TSTMS FOR SRN COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT IS PROBABLY BEST THAT THE DAY SHIFT MONITOR FOR ELEVATED TSTMS THAT MAY AFFECT THE REMAINING COUNTIES IF BETTER LAPSE RATES SEEN TO THE W MAKE IT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS OFF THE SC COAST W/ DECREASING CLD TREND DURING THE 2ND PD W/ DRIER AIR TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER ...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY COASTAL ZONES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PREFER COOLER NGM TEMPS TODAY W/ WARM FRONT NOT MAKING IT THROUGH CWFA. PREFER WARM AVN FOR TONIGHT W/ LTL CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. GUIDANCE SIMILAR BEYOND THE 2ND PD AND SEE NO NEED TO DEVIATE. CWF: WIND DIR BECMS TRICKY PART OF THE FCST TODAY W/ LOW AND WARM FRONT TO AFFECT THE SC WATERS. BY THIS EVENING EXPECTING NLY WIND TO PREVAIL...THEN NW OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FOUND TO THE S OF THE LOW BUT THE GRAD WILL TIGHTEN UP ACROSS ILM/S WATERS DURING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STILL... SPEEDS SHOULD NOT CROSS SCA THRESHOLDS. PRELIMINARY CCF: ILM RU 060/043 069/045 073 29620 FLO RU 058/042 070/044 074 29710 MYR RU 061/042 068/046 071 29820 .ILM...NONE. SRP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 937 AM EST SAT MAR 4 2000 ACCORDING TO RUC MODEL SFC LOW SW OF CAE THIS AM SHUD BEGIN MORE OF AN E OR ESE MOVMT MOVG NR OR JUST N OF CHS ARND 18Z. SLY WINDS ACRS FA WILL BECOME NLY DURG THE AFTN. WILL MAKE ONLY MNR WIND ADJUSTMENTS IF ANY. VSBL SATL SHOWS WRAP ARND CLDNS SHUD PERSIST ACRS NRN SXNS DURG AFTN WITH MOCLDY SKIES. PTCLDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS SRN AREAS WITH A LTL MORE HTG. WITH COLD POOL ALFT MOVG ACRS AREA LTR...AMS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENUF FOR SCT TO WDLY SCT TSRA ACRS FA DURG THE AFTN. CURRENTLY MSAS DATA SHOWS THTE RDG WITH BEST LOW LVL MSTR ACRS GA CNTYS. GTST INSTABILITY WAS ALSO NOTED ACRS THIS AREA ATTM. WILL KEEP FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE FOR SC CNTYS...AND ARND 70 TO THE MID 70S ACRS GA CNTYS THIS AFTN. CWF...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WOULD INDICATE THAT FORECAST IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. EXPECT WINDS TO COME AROUND TO NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED ON MORNING UPDATE. .CHS... SC...NONE. GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND OUT 60 NM. JAC/JH sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 930 AM EST SAT MAR 4 2000 SHWRS AND TSTMS MOVG INTO CNTRL SC CONT TO WKEN AS AMS STBL IN THS AREA. HIER CAPES ACRS NW SC AND SRN CSTL SECTIONS ATTM. MSTR CHNL SHWS UPR LO OVR EXTRM NERN GA AND MOVG SEWD. ACCORDG TO RUC LO WL PASS JUST S OF CAE ARND 18Z AND INTO CSTL AREA BY 21Z. MODELS ALSO SHW 8H CAA BEGINNG TO MOV INTO WRN SECTIONS ATTM. BST LO LVL WAA S AND E TDA. WL KP BST CHANCE OF T ACRS AGS AND OGB THRU MID AFTN. LO LVL CAA MOVG INTO AREA SHUD STBLZ AMS. TEMPS ACRS NRN TIER IN THE MID 50S WHILE ALG SRN COUNTIES MAY GET TO LOWER 60S. TA .CAE...NONE. sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 930 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2000 EQUIP... HAVING DS PROBLEMS ON AWIPS THIS EVENING. BEEN DOWN SINCE 8PM. ISSUING THIS MSG VIA AFOS. NCF SAYS WE WILL BE BACK UP BY 10 PM...MY FINGERS ARE CROSSED. WX... EVENING BALLOON WENT UP THROUGH THE DEFORMATION ZONE. VERIFIED MOIST LAYER ABV 700 MB...NICE VIRGA DISPLAY FROM THE GROUND THIS EVENING... BUT NO RAIN DROPS HERE AT THE SFC. BOTH THE RUC AND MESO ETA SUGGEST MAIN THRUST OF UVM AND PRECIP TO PASS SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES REACH OUR AREA IS FCST TO SKIRT ONLY OUR SRN ZONES. EVENING 850 TEMP WAS PLUS 6 DEG C...WITH 1000-850 THICKNESS OF 1350. THIS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PRECIP THAT DOES REACH OUR SRN ZONES ALL RAIN. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. NC...NONE. PM va