SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 200 PM MST WED MAR 1 2000...CORRECTED HIGHLIGHTS ...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS PRECIPITATION AMOUNT WITH THURSDAY STORM ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE ON THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS... CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. IR IMAGERY SHOWING ENHANCEMENT OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO IN APPARENT DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST IS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CUTOFF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE. ALL THE MODELS SHOW A GENERAL CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CUTOFF LOW. NGM IS FURTHER NORTH AND IS DISCOUNTED. THE AVN AND ETA HAVE SIMILAR TRACKS WITH THE ETA BEING SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. WITH BLOSSOMING CLOUD FIELD IN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET IN ZONE 61 TONIGHT AND I WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY. ON THURSDAY... A SURFACE LOW GETS CRANKED UP OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT MOVES INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY. DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND ADJOINING MOUNTAINS. ETA SHOWS 15 TO 30 KNOTS OF NORTHEAST UPSLOPE DURING THE DAY IN THE LAYER UP TO 700 MB. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND LIFT...ZONES 65...66 AND 70 SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WARNING CRITERIA ON THURSDAY. THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE ADJOINING PLAINS IN ZONES 74 AND 75 SHOULD ALSO HAVE NO PROBLEMS REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. THE TRICKIER FORECAST IS FURTHER NORTH. RAMPART RANGE ZONE IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE AVN WOULD GIVE THIS ZONE WARNING CRITERIA WHILE THE FURTHER SOUTH ETA WOULD GIVE AMOUNTS MORE IN LINE WITH AN ADVISORY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK...I WILL ERROR ON THE CAUTIOUS SIDE AND ISSUE A WARNING FOR ZONE 67. LATEST RUC SUPPORTS THE AVN SOLUTION MORE THAN ETA...BUT AT 06Z TONIGHT THE DIFFERENCES IN POSITION ARE MINOR. THERE IS A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR ZONE 72 AS WHETHER OR NOT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY. GIVEN THIS IS A MAJOR INTERSTATE ROUTE...I WILL BE A LITTLE CAUTIOUS AND GO WITH AN ADVISORY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE GETS WRAPPED BACK INTO THE SYSTEM. THE AVN AND ETA SHOULD HAVE SOME TYPE OF DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL INITIALLY BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...THE ETA AND AVN HAVE STRONG RISING MOTION IN THE BAND WITH SIGNIFICANT DIABATIC COOLING. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -5 TO -7C IN THIS BAND. WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COOLING DUE TO MELTING...SNOW LEVEL MAY REACH DOWN TO THE PLAINS IN THE BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. AWAY FROM THE BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...ONLY RAIN OR WET SNOW WILL FALL. I'LL ISSUE A WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 76 TO 81 ON THE PLAINS AS THE EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE BAND IS UNCERTAIN. THIS REASONING ALSO AGREES WITH KGLD AND KDDC. AVN AND ESPECIALLY ETA SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN A BAND WITH THE ETA GIVING AROUND 1 INCH OF LIQUID FOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE PLAINS. HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS BY MIDNIGHT. THE FINAL PROBLEM AREAS ARE ZONES 71 AND 73 WHICH HAVE THE HIGHEST POPULATION CONCENTRATIONS. ZONE 73 IS A PRECIPITATION HOLE AND IS DOWNSLOPE FOR NORTHEAST FLOW. ZONE 71 IS ALSO DOWNSLOPE FOR NORTHEAST FLOW AS WELL. I DO NOT THINK THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND PRECIPITATION MAY STAY AS RAIN OR WET ZONE IN THESE ZONES. AS A RESULT...I WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ANY CHANGES IN THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES. ON FRIDAY...SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH A GENERALLY NICE DAY IN STORE. IN THE EXTENDED...MRF AND OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE STATE ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER... LATEST AVN HAS THE CUT OFF LOW REMAINING FURTHER WEST OVER ARIZONA. FOR NOW...I WILL GO ALONG WITH MRF AND OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS. ALL THE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH OR EAST ON SATURDAY. CHANCE OF SNOW MOUNTAINS AND CHANCE SHOWERS PLAINS LOOK REASONABLE. SATURDAY MAY BE DRIER IF AVN VERIFIES. THE UKMET SUGGESTS TROUGH WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER SO WILL LEAVE SOME SHOWERS FOR EARLY ON SUNDAY ON THE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY EXCEPT TO SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT PESKY CUTOFF MAY BRING SOME SNOW. .PUB...COZ061(SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS)...SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT. COZ065>067..070(SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS)...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COZ074>075 (SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS)...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. (CORRECEED) COZ072 (NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY)...SNOW ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COZ076>081 (SE PLAINS)...WINTER STORM WATCH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. WOLYN co NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO 210 PM MST WED MAR 1 2000 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK CRITICAL TO FORECAST LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW. WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST/SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT THIS TRACK TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL JET MAX BEGINS TO MOVE THRU TROF BOTTOM AROUND 12Z. 18Z RUC LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING FLOW ON AZTEC NEW MEXICO PROFILER SHOWING WINDS BELOW 600 MB BACKING TO THE EAST. THIS SUPPORTS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKING SOUTH OF AZTEC...AND THUS MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z AND 18Z ETA RUNS. WITH THIS TRACK...PRESSURE FALL CENTER EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THUS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z WHEN WE WILL HAVE TO RELY ON WRAP AROUND EFFECT. ALREADY BACKED OFF A TAD ON POPS WITH MORNING UPDATE...BUT WILL KEEP THE "BECOMING LIKELY TOWARD DAYBREAK" ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHERE ENOUGH UPSLOPE AND 700-300 UPWARD Q-G FORCING TO AID PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED WITH WET BULB ZERO READINGS OF 6000-6500 FEET. BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM DISCUSSION: APRCHG UPR LO CONTS TO MOV SOUTH OF EAST ACRS NWRN AZ EARLY THIS AFTN THO MAY BE STARTING TO TURN MORE TO THE E. THIS WILL BE OUR THIRD ATTEMPT AT PCPN IN DEN FROM ONE OF THESE IN LESS THAN A WEEK...AND THIS PROGRESSION OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONT THRU THE LONG RANGE PERIOD (5 DAY FCST) AND BEYOND. FIRST TWO ATTEMPTS RESULTED IN DRY WX HERE AND SOME PCPN ON THE PLAINS...TRACK OF UPCOMING SYSTEM IS SIMILAR BUT THERE ARE SOME SIG DIFFERENCES THAT SHOULD GIVE A BETTER CHC OF PCPN FOR NERN CO. STILL...YSTDY APPEARED THAT THE BRUNT OF THE STORM FOR THU WUD PASS JUST S OF OUR CWA AND TODAY'S MODELS CONT TO SHOW THIS TREND WITH A SIG PCPN EVENT LIKELY TO OUR S...SO THE BIG QSTN FOR HERE IS HOW MUCH PCPN...LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW HERE...WILL BE THIS FAR NORTH. ALL MODELS START OUT VERY CLOSE EXCEPT FOR A BIT STRONGER WIND ANALYZED IN THE ETA AT 300 MB. WITH THIS JET STILL ON THE BACKSIDE THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO DIG...BUT OVERNIGHT THIS JET WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND DURING THE DAY THU THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE MORE ENE. ALL MODELS SHARE THIS SCENARIO AND HAVE SIMILAR SPEED OF THE SYSTEM BUT ARE DIFFERENT IN HOW CLOSE THE UPR LO COMES TO CO WITH THE ETA CONTINUING TO BE THE FURTHEST S AND THE NGM FURTHEST N. NOT SURE WHY THE ETA IS ALSO WEAKER THEN THE OTHER TWO...BUT COMBINED WITH ITS FURTHER S PSTN THIS RESULTS IN MUCH SHALLOWER UPSLOPE FOR NERN CO ALONG WITH LESS FORCING AND CONSEQUENTLY LESS PCPN THEN THE OTHER MODELS. YSTDYS PMD DISC POINTED OUT TENDENCY FOR THESE LOWS TO BE SOMEWHAT DEEPER THAN MODEL PREDICTIONS WCH WUD FAVOR NGM OR AVN STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS FOR PSTN...DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL ON THIS ONE WITH NOTHING IN CRNT DATA TO ARGUE EITHER WAY. EITHER WAY THO IT WUD TAKE A MORE NRN SHIFT TO PUT NERN CO IN AS GOOD AN AREA FOR HVY PCPN AS FARTHER S...WHILE A SHIFT FARTHER S OF COURSE MIGHT MEAN NO PCPN FOR AT LEAST AREAS N OF I-76. RIGHT NOW FAVORING PCPN IS THAT THIS IS A LARGER SCALE SYSTEM THAN THE LAST MORE COMPACT ONE...ITS NOT QUITE AS BONE DRY ATTM...AND SCREAMING SLY FLOW NOW IN PLACE NEAR THE KS BDR S TO TX WILL BRING MSTR N TO BE WRAPPED AROUND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT FOR THU. THERE SHUD BE DEEP UPSLOPE...DISCOUNTING ETA AS TOO WEAK AND A BIT TOO FAR S...ALTHO NOT TERRIBLY STRONG AND WITH BEST DYNAMICS TO THE S. THIS GIVES THE SCENARIO FOR TOMORROW OF TWO BEST AREAS FOR THE MOST PCPN...ONE CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH THE UPSLOPE AND THE OTHER ZNS 41..46..47..AND PSBLY 49. WITH DEEP UPSLOPE SHD COOL ENUF FOR SNOW IN ZONES NEAR THE FTHLS AND ELEVATION IN ZNS 46 AND 47 SHD BE GOOD ENUF FOR SNOW...BUT RAIN CUD BE A FACTOR FOR SOME ERN ZNS WCH WUD AGREE WITH WHAT GLD IS DOING IN ZNS 90..91 AND 92. CONTS TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...CUD STILL RESULT IN HOISTING FOR SOME AREAS WHILE ON THE OTHER HAND MOST PCPN CUD STAY TO OUR S. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE ROAD FOR NOW. IN THE MTNS NEVER ANY GUD OROGRAPHIC FLOW WITH BEST SNOWS PROB IN FTHL ZN 36 BUT ATTM WILL KEEP BELOW ADVY CRIT. IN THE LONGER TERM THE PARADE OF SYSTEMS CONTINUES WITH A ONE TO TWO DAY BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS. SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING FOR THE NEXT ONE WITH THE MRF/UK AND CANADIAN BRINGING A WEAKISH SYSTEM NEAR AREA ON SAT WHILE EC AND NOGAPS ARE SLOWER AND WUD HAVE ANY CHC OF PCPN WAITING TIL SUN. PREV SHIFT TOOK OUT CHC OF SHWRS FOR SUN SO WILL KEEP THIS FCST ATTM. CANADIAN MODEL IS FARTHEST S ON SAT AND DRIEST WHILE MRF FARTHEST N WITH BEST CHC OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS EVEN ON THE PLAINS...SLGHT CHC PUT IN YSTDY STILL LUKS REASONABLE. ASSUMING THIS TIMING...MILD BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR SUN INTO MON. THEN TIMING FOR NEXT SYSTEM ON TUE AND THIS ONE LUKS INTRIGUING FOR GUD SNOW POTENTIAL ON THE PLAINS...BUT THAT IS TOMORROWS FCST PROBLEM. SZOKE .DEN...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1000 PM WED MAR 1 2000 ONLY SYNOPTIC FORCING TO DEAL WITH OVERNIGHT IS ONGOING AT THE MOMENT AS WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC MODEL SHOW VORT MAX TRAVERSING SOUTHERN PORTION OF LOWER MI. A LOOK AT KDTX 88D INDICATES THIS FEATURE PRODUCING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT AS ONLY A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. ONCE THE VORT MAX DEPARTS...BY MIDNIGHT...ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AT ALL LEVELS HAS PRODUCED LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...AND EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF FZDZ FROM ZONES. PRECIP OF CHOICE TONIGHT WILL BE FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTH. WINDS ARE NOW...FOR THE MOST PART...IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...AND TRENDING TOWARD NORTHWEST. WILL ADJUST WINDS ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES TRACKING RIGHT IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST...PER 18Z MESOETA 2M TEMPS AS DEPICTED ON BUFKIT. SO NO CHANGES THERE. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS NOTED IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...CONTINUING STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVERNIGHT...AND THERMAL TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST LIKELY TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE PREDOMINATE SKY CONDITION. .DTX...GALE WARNING...LAKE HURON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. OKEEFE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1053 AM EST WED MAR 1 2000 AREA OF SHRA ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST E OF THE CWA...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY FROZEN...WORKING ITS WAY SE INTO UPR MI. DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THIS SECOND AREA OF PRECIP IS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE OUT OF CANADA...WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS GOOD CAA IS TAKING PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LATEST RUC MATCHES UP WELL WITH 00Z ETA...BOTH SEEM TO BE PANNING OUT WELL WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNT AND TIMING OF CAA. RAPID DRYING AT MID LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR POST FRONTAL PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SCT POPS IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO MENTION SOME MIX OF RAIN ESPECIALLY EARLY ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MI. ERN UPR HAS COOLED ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO FRESHEN WORDING OF TEMP AND WIND FORECAST. .APX...NONE. EME mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 900 PM CST WED MAR 1 2000 PATCHY CIRRUS OVER AREA...WITH LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING RIDGE AXIS NEARLY BISECTING CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. 00Z RUC SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SURFACE RIDGE MOVING TO EASTERN MN BY 12Z...WHICH PROVIDES A BIT OF A GRADIENT OVER AT LEAST WESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD HELP TEMPS STAY UP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WHILE THE EAST HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO RADIATE CLOSE TO THE DEWPOINT. GOING ZONES HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...BUT AS OF 8PM EASTERN CWA WAS GETTING CLOSE TO TOP END OF TEMP RANGE SO UPDATED TO DROP TEMPS IN AREAS NORTHEAST OF BKX TO SPW LINE. REMAINDER OF FCST OK. .FSD...NONE HAMEN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 827 PM CST WED MAR 1 2000 LATEST RUC SHOWS THE MEAN RH INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS SLOWLY BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY MORNING. UPDATED PART OF THE CWA'S FORECAST AROUND 7 PM. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE NIGHT. .ABR...NONE MOHR sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1001 AM EST WED MAR 1 2000 BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS WESTERN OHIO...TO A SDF-BWG-TUP LINE. OVER THE LAST HOUR THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT DEVELOPED ALONG IT IN KY. BOTH THE RUC AND 06Z ETA DIDN/T INDICATE ANY RAIN FOR THE CWA...INCLUDING THE PAST BAND. WITH THE SHOWERS IN NE OF BWG ATTM...WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN FOR SW VA AND NE TN... BUT DROP THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA AS THE 12Z BNA SOUNDING INDICATED VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WHEN MODIFIED FOR 70 OVER 52. BOTH MODELS DO HOWEVER...INDICATE THE GOOD DEEP MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB WILL BE EXITING THIS MORNING...LEAVING JUST 80H MOISTURE. THIS HAS DEVELOPED INTO SC ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MAY HAVE TO HIT A LITTLE HARDER ON CLOUD COVER. ALSO WITH MORE CLOUDS MAY HAVE TO BROADEN THE TEMP RANGE DOWNWARD...GIVEN 15Z OBS AND LAMP TEMPS. WILL WAIT FOR THE CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXIT BEFORE THE UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 15 TO 25 AND GUSTY WORDING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 12Z BNA SOUNDING AND MRX VWP CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOUT 30 TO 40 KTS AT 3K TO 5K FEET...AND EXPECT SOME OF THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. RBP tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX 929 PM CST WED MAR 1 2000 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUM 62 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 2 AM CST FOR LEA COUNTY NM...AND THE NORTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TX PERMIAN BASIN TO SOUTH PLAINS. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO REFLECT THOSE COUNTIES IN THE WATCH...AND OTHER MINOR UPDATES. AS OF 03Z...LOCAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTION EQUIPMENT INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED RW/-TRW AFFECTING AN AREA FROM THE NORTHERN BIG BEND COUNTY...ACROSS PECOS COUNTY...TO SOUTHERN UPTON COUNTY. GENERAL MOVING WAS NORTHEAST ABOUT 20 MPH. OUR SOUNDING AT 00Z STARTED OFF RATHER UNSTABLE...WITH CAPES AOA 1200 J/KG. 0-3KM SHEAR WAS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT ABOVE 850 MB SHOWED GOOD SHEAR WHICH COULD SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL MODEL OUTPUT INDICATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES IN PROGRESS OVER THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...THE MID LEVELS SHOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE...THUS HELPING CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE WATCH AREA. MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE 02Z RUC AS WITH EARLIER MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUED TO HINT AT SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN TO SOUTH PLAINS. THINGS COULD REALLY GET INTERESTING SHORTLY. .MAF... TX...HIGH WIND WATCH GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR TXZ045-048 050-053 059-063 UNTIL 0200 AM CST. NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR NMZ029 033 034 UNTIL 0100 AM MST. BOYD tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1230 PM CST WED MAR 1 2000 UPDATED FIRST PERIOD ZONES TO INCREASE WINDS TO CAUTION (15-25 MPH) OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS STILL ORGANIZING OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND RIDGE AXIS FROM NORTHEASTERN OK INTO EAST TEXAS. THIS GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MOISTURE THROUGH FORT STOCKTON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S EARLIER...BEFORE MIXING LOWERED THEM SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE IS TRAVELING THE PECOS RIVER ROUTE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. 15Z RUC2 HAS PRECIP OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AROUND 9 PM. .LBB...NONE. JAMES tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 922 PM EST WED MAR 1 2000 LOW PRESS TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE YOW RIVER VLY INTO SOUTHERN QUE OVRNITE TONITE. 12Z AVN HAD BEST POSN FOR THIS STORM SYS AT 00Z. SECONDARY SFC DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENG COASTLINE AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ME ON THU. "BIG BERTHA" UPR LOW TO MOVE SE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TONITE AND ACRS NY STATE AND NEW ENG ON THU. 21Z RUC HAS CF THAT/S CURRENTLY MOVING ACRS NY STATE PASSING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FA BY 09Z TONITE. SFC TEMPS TO GET DOWN INTO THE L-M30S BY 09Z AS WELL. P-TYPE TO CHANGE OVER TO SN IN THE HIR ELEVATIONS. HAVE ALREADY HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SHRA MIXING WITH A FEW FLAKES OF SN ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS. "7UP" BEING REPORTED BY KSLK ASOS ATTM...SO ALL SN CAN/T BE MUCH FAR BEHIND FOR THAT NECK OF THE WOODS. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO BE ACRS THE FA FROM NOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THU. HIGHEST LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO OCCUR ACRS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON THU. H85 TEMPS GO NEGATIVE IN NORTHERN NY BY 06Z TONITE AND BY 12Z THU ELSEWHERE. NORTHERLY UPR-LVL FLOW TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA BY 18Z THU. WINDEX PARAMETERS LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR THU WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS (LI VALUES ONLY CHANGE BY ABOUT 2-3 DEG). MUCH OF THE PCPN ON RADAR HAS BEEN ALOFT FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH SFC DEW PTS STILL DOWN IN THE M20-L30S. EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES OF PCPN TO ROTATE ACRS FA OVRNITE TONITE. THE PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPR LOW ON THU. HAVE BASICALLY CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST/S TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE BASED ON CURRENT OBS TRENDS. MID-SHIFT WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN THE 3RD PERIOD OF THE GOING FORECAST. WORK ZONES OUT. FINAL ZFP AFTER QUICK LOOK AT LATEST LAMP DATA AND THE 02Z OBS. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 330 AM EST THU MAR 2 2000 MISFWA IN A FEW... MODELS SIMILAR IN OVERALL PATTERN. PATTERN RMNS PROGRESSIVE WITH ERN GRTLKS UL TROF TO OFF ME COAST BY F48. MEANWHILE CURRENT SYS ACRS AZ/NM BORDER WKNS AS IT WORKS INTO THE LWR OH VLY AND BUILDING HGHTS WITH THE CRNT EPAC 135W SYS FAVORED. NGM SEEMS BEST WITH SRN US SYSTEM FILLING BUT STILL INFLUENCE ON LWR GRTLKS WX NEGLIGIBLE AS HI PRES LWR GRTLKS TO MKC SUPRESSING LWLVL MSTR/VV DY2. MAIN FCST PROBLEM WL BE TEMPS/CLD CVR. CRNT COLD LWLVLS ACRS ERN GRTLKS MVG E INTO NEW ENGLAND. NGM SEEMS BETTER WITH 925-850 MB TEMPS PER LTST RUC WL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM NGM HI TDY. SLOW CLRG INTO WRN AND SWRN FA SHOULD CONT TO PROGRESS EWD. 06Z RUC MSTR PROFILES SHWNG 900-925 MSTR HANGING TOUGH NE HALF CWA INTO MIDDAY. BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DRIER AIR ALOFT AND WITH DCRSG DELTA-TS AS DY PROGRESSES AND 4C INVERSION WEAKENS - WL GO WITH BECMG MSNY. SHALLOW COLD AIR/INVERSION MUCH WEAKER FOR DY2 AND GOOD SUN JUST CI TEMPS EASILY A CAT HIR. NO LARGE CHNGS FROM MOS. TEMPS CONT TO WARM MUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN EXTENDED. WL TRY TO AWAIT 02/00 MRF IF RAIN CHCS FOR MON WITH WK FROPA DONT MATERIALIZE WL BE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK FOR NEXT PCPN. .IWX...NONE MURPHY in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 234 AM CST THU MAR 2 2000 FORECAST PROBLEMS: 1. SHORT TERM TEMPS & MOISTURE RETURN. 2. RA CHC OVERNIGHT & FRI... HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL 3. ENDING PRECIPITATION ON FRI 08Z SFC RIDGE FROM N PLAINS SOUTH THRU THE OZARKS TO LA. LIGHT N TO E WND WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR THE MOST PART. VIS/FOG SATELLITE PIC SHOWING MOSTLY CI/CS WITH A BAND OF AC MOVING NE ACROSS E OK/E KS ATTM. COOL E FLOW WL PLAY A GOOD PART IN TODAYS HI TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASING CLD CVR. ALL SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT BRING STRONG SHORT WAVE IN WESTERN NM ACROSS TX/OK INTO S MO/N AR BY FRI EVENING. AVN IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ETA/NGM BUT WL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ETA/AVN FOR THIS PACKAGE. INITIAL DRY E FLOW WL INHIBIT MOISTURE RETURN THRU THU AFTN/EVE. 07Z RUC HAS BEST COND PRES DEF OVR OK/KS THRU 15Z WITH THE AVN/ETA CONTINUING THE SAME TREND THRU 00Z FRI...THEN THIS AREA WL TRANSFER INTO OUR REGION...WITH THE BEST LIFT FROM 03Z TO 15Z FRI. THIS WL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND ISOLATED TSRA. ALSO 85/70H LOW & RH FIELDS ARE NEARLY SATURATED BETWEEN 06Z FRI TO 00Z SAT. THEREFORE FRI TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY THRU MOST OF THE DAY. NOT UNTIL AFT 00Z DOES ANY INDICATION OF DRYING AFFECTS TAKE PLACE IN THE OZARKS/SE KS...AS UPPER LOW MOVES E. MIGHT EVEN HAVE SOME -DZ/-RA LINGER INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE NIGHT. DONT WANT TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT FORECAST...BUT MOST LIKELY AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL/TSRA WL BE ACROSS THE S FA. ALSO THIS AREA HAS THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 C/KM & 85H LI INDEX NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT THRU FRI MORNING AS THE CORE OF UPPER LOW MOVES OVR THE REGION. ANOTHER INDICATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS THAT THE BEST LIFT/JET DYNAMICS ARE BETWEEN 03Z TO 15Z FRI. ETA/AVN HAVE BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.15 OF RAINFALL IN EXTREME SW MO/SE KS BY 00Z THU... WITH THE BULK OF THE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH TOTALS NEAR THE AR BORDER BY 18Z FRI. 24 HR TOTALS HAVE BETWEEN ONE HALF AND 1.50 INCHES OVR MOST OF FA BY 18Z FRI. WL HIGHLIGHT MORNING HWO WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE OZARKS STARTING THIS EVENING. ETA SFC TEMPS AT 06Z HAD THE BEST FORECAST... SO WL LEAN TOWARD THESE TEMPS DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS: (FOR COORDINATION ONLY) SGF EW 052/038 044/032 056 25-+93 JLN CW 053/040 044/032 058 253+82 VIH EW 055/037 041/028 055 250883 UNO EW 057/040 046/033 055 250884 .SGF...NONE. JLT mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 925 PM CST WED MAR 1 2000 ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE RED RIVER HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE POLAR JET. RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE TO BE ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO PRECIP HAS REACHED THE GROUND AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY. 00Z UPPER AIR AND SURFACE ANALYSES CONFIRM WHAT 12Z MODEL PROGS SHOWED ...THAT IS INCREASINGLY HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOSTLY THE SOUTHWEST CORNER. 00Z ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS AT 300K SHOWS THE MOST ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN A EAST TO WEST RIBBON ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS MIDLAND. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD SURGE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS THOUGH...WILL IT BEGIN TO RAIN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. RECENT RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL BETWEEN 09-12Z ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT LIKELY POPS MAY HOLD OFF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...WHEN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE COINCIDES WITH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL TAKE A QUICK LOOK AT 00Z ETA/NGM GUIDANCE BEFORE I MAKE ANY CHANGES BUT FEELING IS TO TRIM BACK POPS TO 30-40 POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE EXPECT POPS TO BE HIGHEST TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND LOWEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ALL AREAS HAVE 80-100 POPS FOR THURSDAY AND BELIEVE THIS IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES PLANNED RIGHT NOW FOR THE 2ND PERIOD. WILL ALSO TAKE A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (SPS) AND SEE IF CHANGES ARE NEEDED. .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. JAMES ok EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 910 PM CST WED MAR 1 2000 FWD AND OUN SOUNDINGS VERY DRY BELOW 600 MB THIS EVE. SCT RADAR ECHOS BASED AROUND 9K FT HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS SE OK ALL EVE WITH NO PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE SFC. MODELS MOISTEN UP MID LEVEL SOME IN S ZONES OVERNIGHT AND 850 MB RH CREEPS UP TO RED RIVER BY MORNING. 00Z ETA AND RUC CONT TO KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP W OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z AND LIMITED TO FAR WEST ZONES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. NEW ETA DOESN'T SPREAD SIG PRECIP INTO THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY EVE. GOING FCST HAS SLIGHT CHC POPS LIMITED TO W ZONES OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS IN FAR SOUTH WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AND WHERE 850 MB MOIST MAY SHOW UP BEFORE DAYBREAK. WILL REWORD POPS ON THURSDAY TO REFLECT BETTER CHC IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAY LOWER POPS IN FAR E ZONES. WON'T MESS WITH POPS BEYOND 2ND PERIOD. NO SIG CHANGES TO TMPS. /13 .TUL... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CST THU MAR 2 2000 FCST FOCUS ON CLDS/TEMPS IN EAST TDA DUE TO TRICKY LOW LVL WINDS. IN THE SHORT TERM...IR SATL LOOPS CONT TO SHOW EROSION OF CLDS OVR NERN PTNS OF CWA. MAY HV TO GO WITH MENTN OF EARLY MRNG CLDS IF LOOP TRENDS SHOW RELUCTANCE TWD CLRNG BY ZONE TIME. OTRW ETA/NGM/AVN/RUC PROGS IN EXCELLNT AGREEMNT TO BRING HIGH PRESS OVR RGN WITH TIME. ONLY MINOR VARIATION SEEN IS WIND DIRECTION ALNG ERN PTNS PF CWA. AT 18Z ETA SOLTN FAVORS MORE NERLY FLOW AT H8 THAN NGM. AVN/RUC LEAN TWD STRAIGHT NRLY FLOW. WHILE DELTA T NOT A FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LK CLDS...CURRNT AREA OF CLDS OVR LK MI COULD BE SWEPT INLAND FOR A TIME LATR TDA...AFFECTING TEMPS. BUT 1000/850MB LAYER RH PROGS INSIST ON DRYING OUT OF AMS WITH ASSOCIATED LOW LVL DIVERGENCE FROM 12Z-18Z. SINCE PROGS AGREE TO BRING CENTER OF SFC HI INTO WI RATHER THAN OVER LK SUP...FEEL MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY TREND IS WAY TO GO FOR NOW. IN THE FAR TERM...WX NIL AS HI SETS UP SHOP OV CWA AND SRN WX SYSTEM EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED BY HI AND WEAK NRN BRANCH OF UPPER SPLIT FLOW. UWNMS MODEL...SIMILAR TO TREND OF OTHR MODELS. .MKX...NONE. 0...0...0...0 $$ ZAJDEL wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 231 AM MST THU MAR 2 2000 PROBLEM FOR THIS PACKAGE IS GOING TO BE PHASE CHANGE OF PRECIP...IF ANY...DEPENDING ON LOCATION. THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED. ORIGINALLY THOUGHT ABOUT A WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GROUP...BUT DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE TO WELL ABOVE 32F. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT AN EARLY CHANGEOVER TO PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR ALONG A TRIBUNE TO NORTON AXIS... BUT THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY WITH LATEST RUC2 AND 06Z ETA RUNS. NGM VERIFIED BEST AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AT 06Z...BUT 00Z AND 06Z ETA DOING BEST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. 00Z KAIN-FRITSCH ETA HANDLING PRECIP FIELD THE BEST. WILL BLEND AS BEST I CAN AND HOPE THAT RAIN REMAINS THE DOMINATE PRECIP PHASE UNTIL THE 21Z TO 24Z TIME FRAME. IF CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLY THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING WILL NEED TO FLY OUT OF HERE QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN WALLACE...LOGAN...GREELEY...AND WICHITA COUNTIES. NEEDLESS TO SAY THAT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. PRECIP MOVES OUT TO THE EAST BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH BEST INDICATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL GROUP AND 1-3 ELSEWHERE. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S. FRIDAY LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE BIT OF A RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH WARM GROUND EXPECT SNOW TO MELT QUICKLY...SO HAVE CUT FWC GUIDANCE ONLY BY ONE CATEGORY FOR THE MAXES. MORE RIDGING ON TAP FOR DAY 3...SATURDAY...SO WILL STAY WITH FAN TEMPS FOR DAY 3. .GLD...NONE. ENTWISTLE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1040 AM EST THU MAR 2 2000 NORTHWEST FLOW AT GROUND LEVEL GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-15 MPH THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST OROGRAPHIC OMEGA IN RUC VERY WEAK IN EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS. CONSIDERING THE DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT-TERM...WILL GO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE (HEIGHT/S ALOFT) REVEALING TROUGHING NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE (RIDGING) NORTHWEST...SO WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WIND ADJUSTMENT AS WELL. ZONE UPDATE ALREADY SENT. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. DM tn TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1013 AM CST THU MAR 2 2000 WILL NEED TO UPDATE ZNS TO BRING IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. DRY SLOT BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO CENTRAL TX PNHDL ATTM WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP SHIFTING N INTO NRN TX PNHDL/OK PNHDL. AM CONCERNED WITH SNOW POTENTIAL ESP ACROSS CIMARRON COUNTY OK. 12Z RUC WINTER COMPOSITE INDICATES FAVORABLE H8-H7 THICKNESS VALUES FOR SNOW AS EARLY AS 21Z. LATEST OBS FM CAO INDICATES WET BULB DROPPING IN HEAVY R WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SN ALREADY. THINK INITIALLY CHANGEOVER/MIX WILL BE ASSCD WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP THEN SWITCH BACK... AT LEAST UNTIL COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND UPPER LOW LIFTING E ACROSS CENTRAL TX PNHDL THIS AFTN. WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING DEFINITIVE DECISION ON PRECIP TYPE BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO MENTION SOME WINTER PRECIP WRN OK PNHDL ZNS THIS AFTN. WILL TRY FOR UPDATE WELL BEFORE NOON. SPECIAL 18Z RELEASE COMING ALSO SO LOOK FOR IT. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. COBB tx COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 300 AM CST THU MAR 2 2000 SHORT-TERM: SYNOPSIS: 00Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED MAX HGT FALLS SE OF 50H CLOSED LOW OVR 4-CORNERS STATES. THIS TENDS TO FAVOR THE ETA MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF OF SFC CYC. IN FACT AT 06Z SFC CYC CENTER IS DEEPER AND S OF ALL MDL POSITIONS. ALL MDLS TAKE THIS CYC E AND INDICATE PREFNTL TROF CROSSING CWA LATE TNGT/FRI REACHING CST ARND 00Z SAT. ACTUAL CDFNT STAYS JUST TO THE N. PCPN: SUFFICIENTLY DEEP LLVL MSTR WILL BE LACKING AND DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. AM INCLINED TO MENTION NO POPS AS PER MOS GUIDANCE. E CWA IS ONLY AREA THAT A SMALL POP(<=20) COULD BE USED GIVEN DIV Q/Q VECTOR CONVG AND PROXIMITY TO MSTR FIELD. ANOTHER NEGATIVE IS THAT CAPPING INVERSION DOES NOT BEGIN TO ERODE UNTIL FRI AS PER THE FAVORED NGM. CLDS: LLVL CLOUDINESS WILL GNRLY BE CONFINED TO THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HI-LVL CLOUDINESS WILL GNRLY BE PREVALENT WITH CURRENT VOTMAX CROSSING THE AREA(LATEST RUC A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO ETA). AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL ABOUT ALL MDLS INDICATING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HI-LVL CLOUDINESS AFTER TDY GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE ANIMATED H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A CONNECTION FROM THE ERN PAC. WILL GNRLY USE PARTLY SUNNY SKY COVER WITH SOME VARIATIONS ON THAT THEME. WND: LLJ IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TNGT. WILL ISSUE A WND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY TNGT FOR E CWA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LLJ/PGRAD/STRONG LAND-SEA THERMAL CONTRAST. TEMPS: 1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND 85H TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM. READINGS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S TO ARND 90 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS(SPCLY IN THE VERY DRY ATMOS BEHIND PREFNTL TROF FRI). READINGS WILL BE TEMPERED IN THE E TDY DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE COMPONENT. 60S AT NIGHT SHOULD DO IT. MARINE: SCA ALL WTRS TDY THEN DIMINISHING LATE TNGT. ISOLD SHRA TDY AND WDLY SCT ON FRI. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS: CRP BB 082/068 084/061 075 85--1 VCT BB 080/066 082/057 072 85--1 LRD BB 088/067 088/060 071 850-- LONG-TERM: CDFNT CROSSES THE CWA FRI NGT THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WRMFNT SAT NGT. INCREASING ONSHR FLOW THEN COMMENCES AS 50H SHORTWAVES CONTINUE ON SAME TRACK. WEAKER DIV Q/Q VECTOR CONVG FIELDS ARGUES MORE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE PCPN. .CRP...WIND ADVISORY TXZ232>234-242>247 SCA GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275. (SYN)...85/BB (MESO)...86/GW tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 945 AM EST THU MAR 2 2000 CRNTLY: FCST APPEARS ON TRACK ATTM. -SHRA MVD IN ON TIME LAST NGT FOLLOWED BY XPCTD DRY SLOTTING THAT HAS ACCOUNTED FOR PREDOMINANTLY JUST CLDY SKIES ACRS MUCH OF FA FOR ERLY THIS MRNG. RDRS/IR AND WV SAT PIXS CLRLY SHW MAIN CIRCULATION ACRS SRN QUEBEC/ NRN NY BDR WITH WRAPARD ACTVTY DIVING SSE ACRS LAKE ONTARIO AND ADJACENT CTYS. RUC/MESO-ETA/ETA...ETC SHW H5 LOW TRAVERSING ACRS N CNTRY MIDDAY WITH SFC LOW ACRS QUEBEC RE-DEVELOPING IN GULF OF ME. IN FACT...SOME SIGNS OF RE-DEVELOPMENT ALRDY AS PRS FALLING AND SFC OBS INDICATING DVLPG CIRCULATION. LATER THIS AFTN AS H5 LOW TRACKS E OF FA WL WNDS START VEERING TO NW AND WRAPARD STARTS SHIFTING E ACRS REST OF FA. WTR VPR/MDL DATA SUGGEST PLENTY OF MOISTURE WELL N OF CIRCULATION ATTM THAT SHLD WRAPARD S INTO NRN FA AS ENTIRE SYSTEM WL BE SLOW AND ALLOW THIS MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO FA. ALTHOUGH MOST MDL GENERATED QPF SUGGESTS BLO ADV SNOWS...MM5 SHWS ORAPGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN EXCESS OF 0.5 IN BROAD AREA ACRS ADRNDKS AND FVRD NW SLOPES OF NRN GREENS. BUFPNSBUF JUST RELEASED (921 AM) SHWS 4 IN/4 HR IN TUG HILL OF LEWIS. YES...SOME LAKE ENHANCED BUT LLVL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT...SO STL SUPPORTIVE OF OUR THINKING. ATTM...WL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS BUT LOOKING AT PSBLY RE-DEFINING SOME ZONES FOR PSBL ADV/WRNG AND ELIMINATING SOME FM WATCH ALTOGETHER WITH NXT PKG. IT/S A TRICKY FCST UTILIZING CLIMO/PTRN RECOGNITION MORE THAN RAW GUIDANCE VALUES AND WE/LL SEE WHERE IT ENDS UP. NONETHELESS...IT WILL LOOK LIKE WINTER AGAIN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE N CNTRY BY FRIDAY MRNG AND SKI AREAS WL BE HAPPY. WORKZONES AVBL SHORTLY. .BTV...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT NYZ026-027-029-030-031-034. WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING VTZ002>010. SLW vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 436 PM CST THU MAR 2 2000 LATE WITH DISSCUSSION THIS PM DUE TO ICWF DIFFICULTIES. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB TO THIS POINT ON MVG STACKED STORM OUT INTO WRN PLNS. RUC INDICATED THAT CWA UNDER AREA OF MSTR FLUX DVRGNC MOST OF TDY WHICH SERVED AS A "CURTAIN" IN KEEPING PCPN TO SW OF FCST AREA. 88-D RETURNS AND SFC REPORTS INDICATE A FEW SPRINKLES STARTING TO DVLP OVR WRN ZNS. ONCE MSTR CNVGNC DROPS TO ABT 750-800 HPA 20+ DBZ RETURNS DVLP SO BASED ON ETA CROS SECT DATA WENT WITH CATEGORICAL PCPN IN SW TNGT...LIKELY SE AND CHC POPS N OF RVR WHERE FCST MSTR FLUX CNVGNC BEGINS TO WEAKEN. CROS SECT THETA ANLYS ALSO SUGGEST UPRIGHT COVECTIVE POT OVR SRN CWA UNTIL ABT 0600 UTC. BASED ON THIS POT AND CNVTN DVLPG ACR NE OK ON RIGHT ENTR OF UPR JET INSERTED PSBL THNDR S OF MO RVR. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTANT WITH TIME IN SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY FTHR TRACK TO S. BASED ON AMT OF WAA THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE AND THE FACT THAT BEST DYNAMIC LIFT MOST LIKELY REMAINING TO S OF FCST AREA DECIDED TO ABANDON THE IDEA OF -RASN LATE TNGT/FRI AM SINCE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTANTIAL MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE REACHED. FOR TEMPS TNGT PRETTY MUCH HELD THE LINE WITH MID 30S...LO 30S NE. LIKED FWC NUMBERS IN BRINGING WRMR MAX TEMPS ON FRI FM NW. STILL WENT CONSERVATIVE WITH WRM UP DUE TO XPTD DURATION OF SC AND WENT A CAT UNDR GUIDANCE IN ALL GROUPS XPCT FOR NW MO WHERE SOME LATE DAY CLRG WAS INTRODUCED AS ETA/NGM FCST AXIS OF LWR TROPOSPHERIC FROTOGENESIS TO PUSH THRU. FOR WKEND AND ERLY NXT WK LOOKS LIKE BACK TO MID SPRING CONDS HAS HEIGHT RAPIDLY REBUILD ACR RGN. PLUS 15-20 ANOMALIES SHLD BE THE RULE AGN. MED RANGE MODELS STILL HINTING AT DECENT TSTM OUTBREAK FOR FAT TUE/ASH WED PRD. INSERTED CHC FOR THNDR FOR MIDWEEK. .EAX...NONE BODNER mo