AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 845 PM EST MON FEB 28 2000 HI PRES SLOWLY MOVG IN FM THE W. WIND HAS BECOME LGT OVR WRN THIRD OF AREA. THIS WL ALLOW GOOD RADIATION AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN LOW 20S SHD GET MINS IN MID TO UPPER 20S AS CURRENT FCST. ELSEWHERE JUST A MATTER OF HOW FAST WINDS DIMINISH AS TO HOW LOW IT WL GO . CURRENT RUC SHOWS HI BUILDING IN BY MIDN SO FEEL CURRENT TEMPS WL BE CLOSE. DRY AIR OVERHEAD ON SOUNDING SO NO CLDS. REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS GOOD. .LWX...NONE. JAB md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1120 AM EST MON FEB 28 2000 ...ONLY UPDATE CONCERNS ARE CLDS AND TEMPS... SAT PICS SHOW HIGH CLDS STREAMING TWD UPR MI FM THE W... OVERTOPPING THE RDG SHOWN ON THE UPR AIR PLOTS FM 12Z. 12Z RUC AND ETA BOTH SHOW THIS RDG TRANSITIONING EWD THIS AFTN AS PROGRESSIVE UPR PTN CONTS ACRS THE CONUS. XPCT THE HIGH CLDS WL DO LTL TO IMPEDE SUNSHINE... ONLY CHG WL BE TO EMPHASIZE SOME THICKENING OF THE CLDS IN THE FAR WRN CNTYS AS DENSER AREA OF CLDS ACRS NRN MN TRACKS E THIS AFTN. ACRS LUCE CNTY...VSBL PICS SHOW BACK EDGE OF LOW CLDS DISSIPATING. RUC 12Z SHOWS HIGH H95 RH IN A NARROW BAND WHICH CORRESPONDES VERY WELL W/ STRIPE OF CLDS. THIS FCST TO DCRS THIS AFTN AS WARMING AND MIXING OCCURS AT H95. WL HAVE TO KEEP MENTION OF LOW CLDS THIS AREA THRU ERLY AFTN HOWEVER. WL BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS MOST PLACES...MAINLY CNTRL ZONES. MIXING MORG INL FM H925 YIELDS HIGH IN THE UPR 30S...AND THAT IS W/ NO WAA. GIVEN AMT OF SUN AND WARMING OF A FEW DEGS...THINK MIXING SHD BE A BIT DEEPER A BIT WARMER. ALSO...TEMP ALRDY 35 HERE A KMQT AND NEAR THE FCST HIGHS IN IMT AND MNM. ON THE ONTONAGON... EMERGENCY MGR JUST PHONED. WAS ABLE TO LOOK AT THE RIVER FM THE AIR. ICE IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING...W/ THE JAMMED AREA NEAR THE VICTORIA BRIDGE NOW CLEAR. ONLY A VERY SMALL DISTANCE OF SOLID ICE LEFT AND THIS ALSO APRS TO BE BREAKING QUICKLY. WL DISCONTINUE THE FFA FOR THIS AREA. STATEMENTS TO FOLLOW IN A FEW MINUTES. .MQT...NONE. DESROSIERS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 845 PM CST MON FEB 28 2000 THE FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS TEMPERATURES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS ENOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS RIGHT NOW FROM KEEPING TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CWA. SFC WINDS SHOULD STAY UP OVERNIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. THE LATEST RUC MODEL DEPICTED THE CDFNT OVER WRN CENTRL MN BY 12Z/29TH. THUS...TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. .MSP...NONE JVM mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1015 AM CST MON FEB 28 2000 FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES. 12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS 925/850 MB TEMPERATURE SURGE FROM SOUTH AND LATEST RUC MODEL FORECAST PUSHES TEMPERATURES WELL INTO 50S. BIG QUESTION THOUGH IS HOW HIGH WINDS WILL GO. BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST SHOWS 40 KNOTS JUST OFF SURFACE AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST PROFILERS. ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS MORE SERLY AND SURFACE GRADIENT DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH. FORECAST CURRENTLY KEEPS WIND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT COMBINATION OF PRESSURE AND ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT COULD PUSH WIND UP...HOWEVER NO APPARENT SOURCE OF SUBSIDENCE/ DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN UPPER LEVEL FORECASTS. .MSP...NONE SCOTT mn CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 855 PM EST MON FEB 28 2000 ...WRK ZONES OUT AS PHLADMCTP... IR IMAGERY SHOWING SC DECK BEGINNING TO ERODE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER AS UPPER LVL TROUGH SLIDES EAST AND WARMER AIR ALOFT FLOWS INTO PA. RUC 9H RH FIELDS SUGGEST MTNS NORTH OF IPT SHOULD BECOME CLEAR BY ARND 09Z. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM MOS TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS 00Z READINGS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE. TUESDAY...MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY SHALLOW BOUNDARY LYR DEPTH AS HI PRES PASSES DIRECTLY OVER AREA. THUS...DESPITE 8H TEMPS SOARING TO AROUND 3C...EXPECT SFC TEMPS NOT MUCH WARMER THAN THOSE OF TODAY (FM M40S NORTH...TO M50S LOWER SUSQ). .CTP...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR BLOOMSBURG AND DANVILLE STRETCH OF N BR SUSQ R. CRESTS TO COME AOABV FS ON TUE AFTN. FITZGERALD pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1020 AM CST MON FEB 28 2000 NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS JUST A BIT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT STILL FORECAST BY THE RUC TO STAY IN THAT REGION. WILL LET WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE IN THE FAR EAST. DROPPED BREEZY FROM THE WESTERN ZONES AS WINDS THERE ARE ALREADY DOWN. .ABR...WIND ADVISORY TODAY NORTHEAST SD...AND BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MN PARKIN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1055 AM EST MON FEB 28 2000 BTV SH COORD WITH "THE BUF" AND GYX ABOUT FLOOD PROBLEMS...THANX FOR THE INFO. CF TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY AS A WK WAVE OF LOW PRESS RIDES ALONG IT. HI PRESS RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND TONITE...NOSING INTO THE ST LAW VLY LATE TONITE. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA INTO TONITE. PREFER 00Z ETA SOLN BASED ON CURRENT SFC PRESS AND PCPN TRENDS. 09Z RUC SHOWS W-NW SFC FLOW ACRS THE FA TODAY. TEMPERATURE MAXES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED TODAY AS TEMPS WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE 30S FOR THE REST OF TODAY. 14Z LAMP DATA INDICATES KSLK WILL BE FALLING INTO THE UPR 20S BY LATER TODAY. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO HANG AROUND ACRS THE FA THROUGH TONITE (ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN VT) BEHIND THE FRONT. UPR TROF TO MOVE THRU THE FA TODAY AS WELL...ALL SPELLING OUT THE CHC FOR SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNITE PERIOD. RUC INDICATES BEST CHC FOR STEADY PCPN WILL BE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TODAY. MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE SCT IN NATURE AFTER THAT. RUC P-TYPE SHOWS SN IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND RA TO SN (ESPECIALLY IN THE HIR TRRN) ELSEWHERE TODAY. ALREADY HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF A CHANGEOVER TO SN IN THE HIR TRRN OF THE GREEN MTNS AND CURRENT SFC TEMPS/DEW PTS SUPPORT SN IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FA TO BE UNDER H85 CAA TODAY WITH SOME WAA OCCURRING FROM THE NORTH OVRNITE TONITE. "COLDEST" (NOT REALLY THAT COLD AT ALL) COLD POOL AT H85 TO BE OVER THE REGION BY AROUND 06Z TONITE. HIGHEST LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES ACRS THE FA BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z TONITE. SHSN TO CONTINUE (ESPECIALLY IN THE HIR TRRN) INTO THE OVERNITE PERIOD. HYDRO-WISE...IT/LL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE RIVERS TO "SOLIDIFY" WITH THE FALLING TEMPS TODAY. ICE JAMMING IN PROGRESS ALONG THE GREAT CHAZY... MISSISQUOI...LAMOILLE...AND CT RIVERS ATTM. HI WATER ALSO ALONG THE POULTNEY AND NEW HAVEN RIVERS AND THE OTTER CREEK...WITH MORE FLOODING LIKELY ALONG THOSE WATERWAYS BY LATER TODAY. FURTHER OUT WEST IN NY STATE...THE OSWEGATCHIE...THE RAQUETTE...AND THE SAINT REGIS RIVERS (WHICH USUALLY TAKE A LOOOOONG TIME TO RESPOND TO RAINFALL) ARE CONTINUING TO RISE. ALL THIS LEADS ME TO WANT TO EXTEND THE FFA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY JUST TO BE SAFE...WHICH IS WHAT WE/LL DO. LOOK FOR FURTHER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR ANY DETAILS. WORK ZONES AWAY. FINAL ZFP AFTER QUICK LOOK AT LATEST OBS. FYI...CWBZ (ST ANICET QB) IS REPORTING BOGUS TEMPS/DEW PTS ATTM...SO BEWARE. .BTV...FLOOD WATCH THRU REST OF TODAY NYZ026>031-034-035-VTZ001>012. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 240 PM CST MON FEB 28 2000 MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDE...WINDS THIS EVENING... TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SYSTEM. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. STRONGEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES NOW OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA... OBSERVATIONS IN THESE AREAS INDICATE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH. THE CURRENT WIND SPEEDS SEEN TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA WOULD MEET THE KARX WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND SOME AC MOVING UP INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. RUC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD CURRENTLY BULLSEYES THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS. THE RUC FORECASTS...THE MAXIMA TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA DOWN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA BY 00Z. THE FIELD ESTIMATES A MAXIMUM WIND GUST OF 40 KT. RUC MOVES THE MAXIMA TO THE NORTHEAST BY 03Z INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LOOKING AT THE NEXT SYSTEM...Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE FIELD INDICATES THE BEST FORCING WILL MOVE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KARX FORECAST AREA AT UPPER AND LOW LEVELS. FAIRLY GOOD FORCING SEEN IN 850 TO 700 MB...AND 700 TO 500 MB LAYERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LAYER POTENTIAL VORTICITY IN 300 TO 500 MB LAYER HAS A MAXIMA NEAR 3 PVU MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY 01/06Z. BEST UPPER LEVEL INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BETWEEN 29/21Z AND 01/06Z. LATEST RUNS OF AVN/ETA/NGM...ALL AGREE ON A STRONGER SYSTEM AT 850 MB LEVEL WITH COLDER AIR ADVECTING QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS FROM AVN AT 01/18Z AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS LOOK FAIRLY UNSTABLE IN LOW LEVELS. AVN FORECASTS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO BE DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY. AVN HOLDS MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 70 PERCENT OR HIGHER THROUGH 02/00Z. WINDS WILL BE NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...BUT WILL JUST BEEF UP WORDING IN ZONES WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THROUGH 9 PM. WILL DROP POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AND HOLD OFF ON PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR TOMORROW. WILL KEEP LOW POP SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY... AS I BELIEVE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR. FORECAST QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COLDER THAN EXPECTED AIR MOVING TO THE SOUTH BEHIND THIS NEXT SYSTEM. .LSE...NONE. NELSON wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 931 PM CST MON FEB 28 2000 CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL DECREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NW HILL COUNTRY BASED ON THE LAST FEW OBS FROM KJCT. 00Z RUC SHOWS BEST POTENTIAL FOR MIXING WILL FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY NORTH. WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE OVER ALL AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE...AS THE TIGHTEST LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST. 14 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX 920 PM CST MON FEB 28 2000 UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR FOUR CORNERS AT THIS TIME WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WAVE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SUGGESTING STRONG WINDS ALOFT. LAMP/RUC DATA SUGGEST WINDS WILL STAY IN 15-25 MPH RANGE MOST SECTIONS REMAINDER OF NIGHT. THUS HAVE UPDATED ZFP TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTATION AS WELL AS CHANGED SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WILL CONTINUE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ALLOW FOR UPDATE BY MID-SHIFT AS NECESSARY. BF .MAF... TX...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY...TXZ258. NM...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NMZ027. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX 330 PM CST MON FEB 28 2000 SHORT TERM... A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOWISHNESS WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...THIS MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BACKING SURFACE WINDS FROM THIS AREA NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. ALOFT... A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS SYSTEM...ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OF NOTE IS A JET STREAK EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY PUNCHING ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF THIS JET AND THE EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND LATEST RUC AND ETA DATA SUGGEST WINDS INCREASING WELL ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA AT GUADALUPE PASS THIS EVENING. CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR GUADALUPE PASS AND INCLUDE THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY AND ALL OF NEW TXZ258. OUT ON THE PLAINS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN LAKE CAUTION CRITERION WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT CONTINUED CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL PROHIBIT A TOTAL DECOUPLING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EAST AND THE MEAN UPPER FLOW VEERS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY LOW LEVEL WINDS...WE EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LONG TERM... THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESSES OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MANAGE TO INDUCE SOME WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY...AND THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY...HESITATE TO CALL IT A FRONT...DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN BECOME DIFFUSE AND LIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. WHILE THE FIRST SHORTWAVE HAS NOT HAD ENOUGH TIME TO BRING ANY QUALITY MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT COULD BE PRIMING THE PUMP FOR BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALREADY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE IN PLACE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS GULF COAST...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SWEPT OUT GIVEN THE CLOSE PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO SHORTWAVES. THUS WE SHOULD SEE SOME AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE EXTREMA LOOK ACCEPTABLE FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH WE WILL TREND TOWARD THE WARMER FAN NUMBERS TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER. REAL LONG TERM... A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED BEYOND THE EXTENDED AS SYSTEMS DROP INTO THE LONGWAVE WESTERN TROUGH...AMPLIFY...AND EJECT OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE NOGAPS AND CEM MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF PARTICULAR SYSTEMS...AND THE MRF SEEMS TO HAVE REASONABLE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. THE MRF TAKES THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK A BIT BETTER THURSDAY...BUT IF THE SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES NORTH FARTHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WE'LL END UP WITH NOTHING. WE'LL KEEP AN OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK FOR BADLY NEEDED RAIN ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS REGIONS FOR THURSDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE MAY GIVE US A REAL CHANCE OF SOME RAIN IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MARCH. THAT'S A WRAP...THANKS FOR THE COORD LBB...AND GOALS AGAINST AVERAGE FOLLOW...70. THE PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE BELOW IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ZONE FORECAST. MAF 44/76/44/74 000- LSA 42/74/41/74 000- E41 45/75/44/74 000- 6R6 48/78/45/78 0000 MRF 37/70/39/72 0000 CNM 41/72/40/74 0000 .MAF... TX...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY...TXZ258. NM...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NMZ027. tx TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1153 AM CST MON FEB 28 2000 FAIRLY DENSE CI SHIELD CONTINUES OVHD THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NM WHICH LOOKS TO COMPLICATE TEMP/WIND FCST FOR AFTN. AREA WIND PROFILERS SHOWING 45-50KT WINDS JUST OFF SFC. LATEST RUC/12Z MODEL DATA SUPPORT AT LEAST WINDY CONDITIONS FOR FA AS SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS ERN CO AND MOVES INTO WRN KS THIS EVE. FCST SFC GRADIENT SUGGESTS STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN NE ZNS WITH SFC TROUGH FURTHER W...AGAIN THIS SUPPORTED BY PROFILER DATA. DESPITE LIMITED MIXING WITH CI HV DECIDED TO ADD NE CORNER FA TO WIND ADVSY AND KEEP REST OF CONFIGURATION AS IS...MAINLY BASED ON SFC LOW DEEPENING. ...UPDATED PORTION DECIDED TO TAKE TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH. DENSE CLOUDS AND MORE SRLY COMPONENT TO WIND LOOK TO BE HOLDING TEMPS BACK. .AMA... TX...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY EVENING TXZ001>013-016>018. OK...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY EVENING OKZ001>003. COBB tx EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 300 AM PST TUE FEB 29 2000 A WEAK PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A SECOND PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AVN/MRF PREFERRED THRU THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. IN THE NR TERM...ACARS SOUNDINGS AND RAOBS SHOWED A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN 5K AND 6K FT MSL WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP ALG THE CSTL SLOPES OF THE SBD/RIV COUNTY MTNS BLO THIS INVERSION MON EVENING. THESE CLOUDS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. AN EARLY MON EVENING HIGH RESOLUTION ACARS SOUNDING FROM SNA SHOWED A WK MARINE INVERSION TRYING TO FORM AROUND 1500 FT. COAMPS SHOWS A WK CSTL EDDY THIS MORNING...CONFIRMED WITH SURFACE REPORTS...WITH BOTH COAMPS AND RUC SHOWING A WK CSTL EDDY FOR WED MORNING THOUGH DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS FOR WED MORNING. AREAS NEAR THE CST MAY SEE SOME PATCHY STRATUS...OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDINESS FOR SW CA TODAY AS A WK PAC STORM MOVES INLAND INTO CNTRL CA. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WL BE NRN RANGES (SBD/RIV COUNTY MTNS) THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LESSER CHANCES ELSEWHERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVN 850 MB RH IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING FOR MOST AREAS ALG AND W OF MTNS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AWAY FM HIGHER TRRN. QPF WL BE LESS THAN FOR SUN STORM... QUARTER INCH OR LESS CSTL SXNS TO ONE QUARTER TO LCL ONE HALF INCH NRN RANGES. WITH SNOW LVLS STARTING OUT LWR THAN FOR SUN STORM... GREATER PERCENTAGE OF QPF WL GO INTO SNOW FOR NRN RANGES...BUT PROBABLY NOT SUFFICENT FOR WINTER WEATHER ADV...HENCE HAVE WORDED LCL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 4 INCHES ABV 5000 FT FOR SBD/RIV COUNTY MTNS. THU SYS LOOKS A LTL WETTER...COMPARABLE OR SLIGHTLY LESS THAN AMOUNTS FOR SUN STORM. EXTENDED MDLS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY... LINGERING INTO MON...BUT THIS IS STILL BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED PD. SAN 230 .SAN...NONE. MARTIN ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 955 AM EST TUE FEB 29 2000 CURRENTLY... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW NNE-SSW ORIENTED LINE OF CLOUDS FROM FLORIDA BAY ACROSS MIDDLE KEYS TO NW COAST OF CUBA...MOVING WEST...WITH RADAR INDICATING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WITHIN THIS FEATURE. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE WINDS NE OVER WEST SIDE OF THE FEATURE AND ENE ON THE EAST SIDE OF IT. THIS CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS THE SAME FEATURE SEEN FARTHER EAST THIS TIME YESTERDAY....FROM BIMINI SW OVER THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO N COAST OF CUBA. C-MAN STATIONS REFLECT ABOVE MENTIONED WIND DIRECTIONS...AND SO FAR SPEEDS ARE NEAR 10 KNOTS. THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA YESTERDAY IS NOT READILY DISCERNIBLE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING. FIRST PERIOD FORECASTS... THE 1030 AM COASTAL MARINE FORECAST WILL ACKNOWLEDGE THE ONGOING WIND VEERING THAT IS OCCURRING AS FORECASTED...WITH WINDS NOW NE TO E AT ALL BUT DRY TORTUGAS WHICH IS STILL MORE NORTHERLY. LOOKING AT LATEST RUC AND MESO-ETA...AS WELL AS OBS IN THE BAHAMAS...I MAY TEMPER FORECAST WIND SPEED DOWN TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. LOWER KEYS ARE STILL QUITE SUNNY...BUT WESTWARD PROGRESS OF THE CONVERGENCE LINE MAKES PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD FORECAST. ALREADY IT HAS BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MID AND UPPER KEYS. NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE PUBLIC ZONE FORECASTS. .EYW...NONE. CLB fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 940 AM TUE FEB 29 2000 CURRENT ZONE FORECAST LOOKS OKAY... AND WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE 12Z RUC SHOW MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST GOING IN THOSE LOCATIONS... AND CHANGE TO A MORE OPTIMISTIC PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE CURRENTLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES... SO WILL LEAVE THOSE NUMBERS ALONE. ZONES WILL BE OUT BY 1015 AM. TRH .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 223 AM CST TUE FEB 29 2000 FORECAST PROBLEMS: 1. IF WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED TODAY 2. AMT OF MOISTURE RETURN TODAY/PRECIPITATION CHC 3. TEMPS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WITH 88D INDICATED 70-75KTS ABOVE THE SFC AT SGF. MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE WNDS SO THE INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE AMT OF MOISTURE RETURN AS UPPER LOW MOVES IN BY THE AFTN. SC/ST DECK ALREADY N OF RED RIVER AS OF 07Z. WITH CURRENT TREND THE CLDS SHOULD BE IN THE JLN AREA AFT 11Z. ALSO A CU/SC LN IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LN OVR THE TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH UPPER LOW NEAR RTN. ALL MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH 48 HRS MOVING & DECREASING THE INTENSITY OF UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN NM THRU KS/N MO AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. 06Z WV IMAGERY AND SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE AVN THE BEST MODEL ATTM. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN WITH 50 TO 60 KTS AT LEAST ABOVE 3000'...BUT AS CLDS INCREASE THIS MORNING... MAY HAVE A PROBLEM WITH WNDS MIXING TO THE SFC. AFTN SUN IN THE JLN AREA ALONG WITH THE SW WNDS INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA... MAINLY DUE TO TERRAIN AFFECTS. AFTER TALKING TO KICT/KTUL AND KLIT... WL HIGHLIGHT ZONES WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 FOR JLN/SGF... AND LET THE DAY SHIFT HANDLE ADVISORY IF NEEDED. 06Z RUC SHOWING 50-55 DEW PTS MOVING INTO FA BY 18Z... WITH A STRONG DRY LN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL/E OK. NGM HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LATEST DEW PTS SURGING NORTHWARD... WITH AVN CLOSE BEHIND. HOWEVER MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW... ALONG WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS TO THE N OF FA. BUT AFT 18Z... AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN DEPTH IN E FA... WITH 55 DEW PTS NEAR UNO... WL CONTINUE THE TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN THE E... WITH SLIGHT CHC IN THE W. DAY SHIFT WL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE DRY LN IF CU FIELD DEVELOPS... BUT DO NOT THINK ANYTHING MORE THAN 30% FOR JLN/SE KS ATTM AS DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THE E AND N OF FA. TONIGHT AS WNDS SHIFT TO THE NW... DRY AIR WL FILTER IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM WL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE STRONGER AND FURTHER S... ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WL TREND TOWARD HIGHER TEMPS IN JLN AS PER SW FLOW THIS AFTN. FOR SGF/VIH/UNO WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE FAN/FWC NUMBERS. PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS: (FOR COORDINATION ONLY) SGF EB 065/040 058/034 052 253200 JLN BB 072/040 061/035 052 253100 VIH EB 065/038 055/032 055 254200 UNO EB 067/042 060/031 057 254200 .SGF...NONE. JLT mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 931 AM CST TUE FEB 29 2000 ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE ALL POPS THIS MORNING, AND TO REMOVE CLOUDS FROM ALL BUT THE FAR E AND SE ZONES - WHERE THEY ALSO WILL BE GONE SHORTLY. WIND DIRECTION HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED MORE TO THE W AND SW IN MOST AREAS. WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK AT THE MOMENT WITH MESONET SITES GUSTING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 45 MPH IN WESTERN OK AND OVER 55 MPH AT TIMES IN THE PANHANDLE. BUT LATEST RUC PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED E INTO CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL OK LATER THIS MORNING. 24 .OUN... OK...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OKZ004>006-009>11-014>017-021>023-034-035-038 TX...NONE. FCSTID = 33/DLF ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 935 AM EST TUE FEB 29 2000 CIRRUS CLOUDS ARRIVED ON SCHEDULE THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THESE HIGH CLOUDS TO REMAIN ON THE THIN SIDE DUE TO 850-300 MB RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION UNTIL AROUND 01/06Z WHEN A SLUG OF MOISTURE AT 850 MB LVL ENCROACHES FROM THE SW. THUS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOOKS FINE. 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN 24 HRS AGO...AND CURRENT TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR ABOVE FWC VALUES FOR 15Z. RUC MODEL SHOWS SUFFICIENT LOW LVL WARMING INTO SE TN/SW NC TO SUPPORT NUDGING MAX TEMPS UP A CATEGORY FOR TODAY. ALSO NOTED THAT THIS AREA HAD MON MAXES IN THE LOW-MID 60S. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK...ALTHO WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY WED IN AT LEAST OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES AND SWRN VA. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. TG tn SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1032 AM CST TUE FEB 29 2000 MORNING SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTED STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO SURFACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. HOWEVER, KSAT DOPPLER VAD WINDS INDICATED LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE RELAXED CONSIDERABLY SINCE 12Z. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALSO RELAXED AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE LAKE CAUTION FLAGS OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD STREETS; WILL EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE SOON ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. SUBSIDENT AIR HAS SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN SECTIONS LATE THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, SO WILL IMPROVE SKY CONDITIONS FURTHER HERE. DEPARTING JET STREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS LEFT A FAVORABLE QUADRANT TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS THAT MOIST LAYER, ALTHOUGH CAPPED, IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AUSTIN AREA EXTENDING EAST TO LAGRANGE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL NOT EXTEND THE CHANCE INTO THE EVENING. 15Z RUC MODEL SUPPORTS THIS THINKING. .EWX...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES EASTERN COUNTIES. 18/2 tx TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 856 AM CST TUE FEB 29 2000 DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OK PNHDL AND NORTHEAST 1/3 OF TX PNDHL THROUGH MID-AFTN. LATEST MESONET SHOWING WINDS WELL INTO ADVSY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. 12Z RUC SUPPORTS HIGH WINDS IN AT LEAST NE CORNER THROUGH EARLY AFTN. STRONG PRESS GRADIENTS ASSCD WITH DEPARTING LOW IN WRN KS BEING THE CULPRIT. .AMA... TX...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON TXZ002>005-009-010. OK...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON OKZ001>003. COBB tx NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO 245 PM MST TUE FEB 29 2000 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: SKIES SHOULD BE NEARLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT... THOUGH SOME CI MAY START TO MOVE IN LATE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FLAT GOING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY SO ONLY LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT I WILL STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE LOWS A BIT. GIMMESTAD LONG TERM DISCUSSION: ANOTHER SYSTEM MISSES THE FRONT RANGE LEAVING US ZERO FOR THE LAST TWO AS WE PUT OUR SPRINGLIKE FEB TO REST. A NUMBER OF CHANCES FOR PCPN IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS AS SYSTEMS MOVE RAPIDLY ACRS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WRN US WITH AN ANCHORED MEAN TROF IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. QUESTION IS NOW THAT MARCH IS HERE CAN WE PUT ALL THOSE FEB MISSES BEHIND US AND GET OUR REAL WINTER GOING. THE ANSWER IN THE SHORT TERM IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN AS THE NEXT EVENT HOLDS A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS FOR THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM IS ON THE W COAST ATTM WITH A NRN PORTION ROTATING INTO THE PAC NW AND A SRN PTN DRIVING TWDS SRN CALIF ON THE STRENGTH OF A 120KT PLUS JET ON ITS BACKSIDE. COMPARISON OF THE MODEL FCSTS INDICATES THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE ETA DROPS THE SYSTEM FARTHEST SOUTH BY 12Z THU WITH A CLOSED LOW IN CTRL NM AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE OR FORCING FM DEN NORTH. AVN TRENDING FARTHER S AS WELL WITH GREATER THREAT OF SIG PCPN FOR SERN CO BUT STILL ENUF FOR UPSLOPE AND CHC OF SNOW OUR AREA...VS PROBABLY A MISS ON THE ETA. INITIAL ANALYSES INDC ETA HAS A STRONGER JET ON THE W SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAN THE OTHER TWO MODELS BUT NO OBS TO TELL WHICH IS CORRECT. NOT SURE IF RUC ANALYSES HAVE ENUF ACARS TO KNOW STRUCTURE OF THE JET OFF CALIF COAST...BUT 6H ETA FCST DOES MATCH UP BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS IN TERMS OF JET. ON THE OTHER HAND LATER CUTOFF FOR AVN/NGM VS ETA MIGHT MEAN BETTER DATA UPSTREAM SO REALLY LEFT WITH NO REASON TO NECESSARILY BELIEVE MORE SRN ETA TRACK OVR AVN/NGM FOR UPR LVL SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HI PRES WILL PUSH S OVNGT AND SET UP RETURN FLOW ON WED...TOO BAD THE HI ISN'T TIMED FOR THU IN WCH CASE WUD HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW FOR NERN CO. WITH RETURN FLOW WED LUK FOR A MILD DAY AND LIKELY DENVER CYCLONE SETTING UP. DWPNTS WILL TAKE AWHILE TO BUILD UP BUT WITH INCRS IN UPR LVL FORCING LATE IN THE DAY WILL PUT SOME CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN. RAIN/SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT BUT SHOULD WE ACTUALLY GET A DEEP MOIST UPSLOPE LIKE THE AVN SHOWS THEN IT SHOULD BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW ON THE PLAINS ON THU. IF THE SYSTEM DOES HOWEVER GO FARTHER S THEN NOT ONLY WILL CHC OF PCPN GO DOWN BUT THREAT OF RAIN SHWRS INSTEAD OF SNOW WILL BE A REAL POSSIBILITY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...ATTM DOES NOT LUK LIKE A BIG EVENT FOR THE NE BECAUSE OF THE MORE SRN TRACK...A SYSTEM THAT ISN'T TERRIBLY POTENT...AND AN ILL-TIMED HI PRES SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH. STILL...IF THE UPR LO IS FURTHER N AND TAKES A NE TURN AS IN THE AVN FCST FOR THU...THEN NERN CO CUD STILL GET A DECENT EVENT OUT OF THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS IFFY WITH BETTER CHC OF PCPN FARTHER E. NOT AN ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FLOW FOR THE MTNS AND ATTM MAY GET THRU EVENT WITHOUT NEED TO HOIST ANY MTN HILITES. LONGER TERM THE MRF APPEARED TO BE TOO FAST W NEXT SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED WITH THE CAN..UK AND EC WCH WITH THEIR SLOWER MVMNT WUD KEEP SAT MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER NEW AVN AND CANADIAN 72H AGREES EXACTLY WITH SPEED OF MRF...SO WENT AND PUT SOME PCPN IN FOR SAT. HOWEVER THIS NEXT SYSTEM ATTM DOES NOT LUK WELL ORGANIZED SO WILL WORD AS SLGT CHC FOR THE PLAINS AND HAVE RAIN OR SNOW PSBLTIES. SZOKE .DEN...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 205 PM CST TUE FEB 29 2000 UPPER LOW OVER NCNTRL KS AT 19Z. SFC MAP SHOWED COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KTOP TO KTUL TO KDWF. NEWLY DEVELOPED CONVECTION NEAR THE UPPER LOW OVER NE KANSAS. LATEST RUC AND WIND PROFILERS SHOW THE SYSTEM IS NEARLY STACKED. MAIN FCST ISSUE WILL BE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT. ETA/AVN/NGM ALL SIMILAR IN MOVG THE CLOSED CIRCULATION NE OVER MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND OPENING UP. 12Z UPPER AIR AT 850MB AND LATEST SATELLITE/RUC SHOW GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NE INTO MISSOURI. BEHIND THE MOIST AXIS WHERE THE CU FIELD IS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI IS WHERE WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR CONVECTION...JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW TROP THERMAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE A BIT AS IT OPENS UP. PROFILERS SHOW NEAR 100KT 500MB FLOW OVER EAST KS. MID-LVL JET STREAK WILL MOVE EAST...WITH OUR AREA IN FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD UVM FIELD AS LOW-TROP THETA-E/WAA TO BE ONGOING THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE SHIFTING EAST. SO...WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS SIMILAR TO ONGOING ZFP. 1000-500MB MEAN RH ONLY AVERAGES 50-60%...WITH K-INDICES MAYBE AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 20S. SO SCT/CHC POPS WILL BE USED. WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSRA...AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR LOWS...AS A GOOD SW WIND HOLDS UP TEMPS...WHILE THERMAL RIDGE NEAR SURFACE LIES OVER THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. AVN/NGM BOTH ADVERTISE A VARYING AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE RULE...WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS. WILL TREND WITH COOLER GUIDANCE NOS SINCE SFC RIDGE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY PROMINENT THROUGH THURSDAY. PER THE AVN AND MRF...WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN DEVELOPING SCENARIO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SUPPLY LIFT OF INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NOGAPS SEEMS OUT ON IT'S OWN WITH A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. WILL GO WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT MRF...AS IT LINES UP A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE ECMWF. THE MAIN SFC AND UPPER AIR SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...WITH SHRA/POSSIBLE TSRA. THE RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS..LEAVING MAINLY QUIET WX ON SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SUNDAY...SO WILL INCREASE CLOUDS. .PAH...NONE. CN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 200 PM CST TUE FEB 29 2000 LARGE AREA SC ROTATING ARND LOW EAST OF LK WINN. RUC 1000/850 LYR RH OUTLINES THIS AREA REASONABLY WELL WITH THE 50-60 PCT LINE. EWD PROGRESS APPEARS TO BE DELAYED FOR NOW AS NERN CWA HAS WARMED UP CONSIDERABLY AND LOWERED LOLVL RH VALUES. EXPECT TO SEE ADVANCE RESUMED BY SUNSET. USING ETA TO FOLLOW THRU THIS EVE AND INTO WED...LOOKING FOR CLEARING AGN ARND MIDDAY. CURRENT ZFP PKG REFLECTS THIS WTH MOCLDY FOR TNGT. QUES REMAINS WHETHER OR NOT TO LEAVE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN FCST. MSTR WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW...BUT UPR TROF/VORT MAX SHOULD PROVIDE ENUF LIFT FOR AT LEAST A FEW OVNGT SNOWFLAKES. MODEL POPS AND QPF PRETTY SKIMPY...SO WILL STAY WTH MENTION OF FLURRIES AND NO POPS. WILL CLEAR OUT CWA FROM W ON WED AS HIGH PRESS MOVES IN...ALLOWING FOR SOME DELAY IN NWRN WI FOR THE MRNG HRS. FAN AND FWC TEMPS QUITE CLOSE...BUT MAY BE TOO LOW CONSIDERING CLD CVR...CURRENT DEW PTS...AND RECORD HIGHS EXPERIENCED TDA JUST PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF CLD DECK. WILL PRBLY LOWER GUIDNC TEMPS A NOTCH OR TWO. .DLH...NONE. ERF mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1148 AM CST TUE FEB 29 2000 VIGOROUS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN KS ATTM WITH SFC LOW TO THE W OF CNK. DRY SLOT AHEAD OF SFC LOW MOVING INTO EXTREME SE NEB. GOOD HEATING TAKING PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND ERN KS WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 60S. DWPTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FEEDING NWD THROUGH ERN KS ATTM AND WILL BE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR TSTMS IN SE CORNER OF NE. 88DS SHOWING CONVECTION BECOMING MORE CELLULAR PAST HR WITH SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG SOUTHERN FLANK OF PCPN AREA NEAR DRY SLOT...CLOSEST TO MOST UNSTABLE AIR. 15Z RUC INDICATES L.I.'S LOWERING TO -5 IN THE SE CORNER BY 21Z. THE ETA IS NOT AS UNSTABLE WITH L.I'S DOWN TO -2. ETA CAPES OF 300 J/KG PROGGED INT THE EXTREME SE DURG THE AFTN. HAVE JUST UPDATED SE CORNER ZONE GROUP TO REFLECT SOME SUNSHINE IN DRY SLOT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO EITHER REDEVELOP...OR MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BACK SIDE OF DRY SLOT ROTATES BACK INTO THE AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA...SHRA AND A FEW TSRA LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD FROM S CNTRL INTO E CNTRL NE AND INTO WRN IA THROUGH LATE AFTN AS SHRTWV MOVES BY TO OUR S. NE NEB LIKELY TO ESCAPE BRUNT OF PCPN...BUT A FEW SHRA PSBL IN THE OFK AREA. FURTHER TO THE NW IT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN DRY. .OMA...NONE SKERRITT ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED ADVISORY AREA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1113 AM CST TUE FEB 29 2000 WIND ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED INTO N TX ZONES AND N CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MESONET INDICATES WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN 25-30MPH RANGE AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40MPH IN THESE AREAS. LATEST RUC MAINTAINS STRONG GRADIENT INTO EARLY EVENING OVER N CENTRAL OK IN SW QUAD OF DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. UPDATED ZFP AND NPW WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. 24 .OUN... OK...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON OKZ004>031-033>040-044-045 TX...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON TXZ083>090 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1113 AM CST TUE FEB 29 2000 WIND ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED INTO N CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MESONET INDICATES WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN 25-30MPH RANGE AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40MPH IN THESE AREAS. LATEST RUC MAINTAINS STRONG GRADIENT INTO EARLY EVENING OVER N CENTRAL OK IN SW QUAD OF DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. UPDATED ZFP AND NPW WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. 24 .OUN... OK...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON OKZ004>031-034-035-038 TX...NONE. ok