AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 248 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2000 SFC ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWS THE COLD FRONT TO BE JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TIGHT DWPT GRADIENT. EWD PROGRESS CONTINUES TO BE SLOW. CONVECTION FIRED ALG THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY FM WI TO MO... WITHIN A NARROW BAND OF LOW LIFTED INDICES (PER MSAS). LARGE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM THRU ERN HALF OF CWA IN RESPONSE TO WELL DEFINED OMEGA FIELD. COLD FRONT MOVES THRU CWA THIS EVENING PER ETA AND RUC...CLEARING CWA BY 06Z. DON'T SEE ANY REASON TO DISPUTE THIS. FROPA SHOULD BRING ALL PRECIP TO AN END. WOULD XPCT CONVECTION TO DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. NARROW DRY SLOT BEHIND COLD FRONT MAY GIVE TEMPORARY CLEARING OF THE LOW CLD FIELD...BUT LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS FROM ETA AND RUC SUGGEST THAT CLD FIELD WILL MOVE BACK IN BY SUN MORNING. LONGER RANGE...NEXT THREAT OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXR SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IF MRF SOLUTION COMES TRUE...THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WWITH PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL WELL INTO WED. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK RSNBL. BLENDED FWC AND FAN NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART. PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY... SPI EB 038/051 034/058 039 51610 PIA EB 038/050 034/057 038 51510 DEC EB 038/050 034/057 038 51610 CMI EB 038/050 034/058 038 51+20 MTO EB 041/052 035/059 040 51+20 LWV EB 042/054 036/060 042 51+20 .ILX... IL...NONE. $$ HEDGES il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 955 PM EST SAT FEB 26 2000 SYNOPSIS: A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MUCH MILDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING MONDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...LOOK FOR SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR TO FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: CONCERNS FOR UPDATE PACKAGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PCPN CHANCES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA PRODUCING A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THIS EVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WILL HELP STRENGTHEN INVERSION AS IT RIDES OVER SNOW PACK LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS BEEN HOLDING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA WITH BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID 30S MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS (MESOETA/RUC) ARE VERY SIMILAR IN TAKING AREA OF LOW CIGS/MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/SW ME AND MOVING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THIS WILL CONTINUE TREND OF EARLIER FORECAST MENTIONING MINIMAL CHANCE -RA ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING. SOME PATCHES OF -FZRA/-FZDZ POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. COASTAL WATERS: ...UPDATED... WILL ISSUE SCA'S AS BUOY DATA INDICATING WINDS JUST BELOW CRITERIA ATTM. MESOETA/RUC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING 1000MB WINDS TO MIX DOWN AND REACH THIS CRITERIA ACROSS THE DOWNEAST WATERS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. .CAR...SCA. FITZSIMMONS me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 917 PM EST SAT FEB 26 2000 CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. WILL LEAVE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EAST ZONES...EARLIER EXIT WEST. CURRENT RUC DATA SHOWS LIS APPROACHING 1 TO 2 RANGE AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH LAPSE RATES AT 850 TO 500MB STILL IN 6 RANGE AND INCREASING UPPER JET DYNAMICS. HENCE...WITH FRONT JUST ENTERING WESTERN LOWER AT 6Z THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE WEST ZONES FOR A PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT...AS PER CURRENT OBS TREND AND LAMP FORECAST. WILL ADJUST CURRENT WIND FORECAST AS WELL IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS...AND WITH SPEEDS IN TIGHTER GRADIENT UP STREAM. .DTX...NONE. mi AREECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 325 PM SAT FEB 26 2000 VERY NARROW LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE FIRED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISC AND NW ILL THIS AFT...BUT MAIN CONCERN FOR GRR CWA REMAINS EXTENSIVE RAIN SHIELD ASSOC/W JET STREAK THAT HAS LIFTED NE OUT OF BASE OF SHARP H5 TROF. APPEARS LACK OF SFC HEATING WILL PRECLUDE THE THREAT FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA...PER SPC DISC...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FIRST PERIOD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS AT LOW LEVELS...BUT STILL HAVE 45+ KTS BELOW 3 KFT THIS EVENING. QPF FROM 18Z RUC IS FURTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND HAS COME INTO CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z NGM AND AVN. MEANWHILE THE ETA APPEARS TOO FAR EAST GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE PROBLEM WILL BE IN TIMING THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP DURING MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL LINGER PAST 12Z IN EASTERN ZONES...I HAVE DISCOUNTED THE ETA...SO I WILL PUT LIKELY POPS THERE WITH CHANCE POPS WEST. CAA BEHIND FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUDS UNDER UPR LEVEL TROFFING...WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GOING UP DURING SUNDAY. IMPROVING WX SUN NITE/MON AS UPR LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. SOME HYDRO CONCERNS OVERNIGHT...AS IT APPEARS RAIN COUD BE HEAVY FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH SOME TRAINING AS PRECIP SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. RESPONSE OF SMALLER RIVERS MUST BE WATCHED CLOSELY TONITE AND SUNDAY. OSTUNO EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION... CANADIAN AND MRF MODELS STILL SUGGEST A WEAK SYSTEM TUESDAY. THE MAIN LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF MICHIGAN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH. SYSTEM IS A BIT MOISTURE STARVED DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF MICHIGAN WITH ANY MOISTURE PRESENT ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC. GIVEN THE LOWS POSITION AND WITH LESS THAN OPTIMAL MOISTURE PCPN MAY STAY NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. DECIDED TO DOWN PLAY THE CURRENT WORDING JUST A BIT FROM RAIN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. A SEPARATE SYSTEM APPROACHES MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL ALLOW AN 850 FLOW FROM THE GULF AND FUEL FOR THIS SYSTEM PROVIDING A REASONABLE CHANCE OF PCPN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST CANADIAN MODEL DOES HINT AT THIS SYSTEM 12Z TUESDAY DESPITE THE NEGLECT FROM THE 00Z RUN. WILL FOLLOW THE MRF AND INCLUDE PCPN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MCINERNEY GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 845 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2000 GOOD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN PART OF CWA AT PRESENT. MSAS SHOWING SOME DECENT DIVERGENCE PUSHING INTO SW MN. LATEST RUC SUGGESTING A LITTLE FASTER PUSH OF LOWER RH IN LOW LEVELS AT LEAST ACROSS SW PART OF CWA. WILL PUSH UP SOME CLEARING AS FAR EAST AS MSP. OTHERWISE LOW TEMPS LOOK OK. .MSP...NONE RICHARDSON mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 300 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2000 SC...WHICH VSBL TRENDS ON STLT SHOWD WERE BREAKING UP W OF A OFK-LNK LINE AT 21Z...IS FCST BY RUC TO CLR TO EXTREME ERN CWA BY AROUND 06Z. WILL LET WIND ADVSRY EXPIRE NE WITH NEW ZONE ISSUANCE...WINDS CURRENTLY BLO CRITERIA AND NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH OVR A WIDESPRD AREA TO EXTEND. DECREASING WNDS AND CLR/CLRG SKIES SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT...SPCLY WRN ZONES...AS DWPTS IN THE 20S OVERSPREAD FCST AREA. LTL/NO CHANGES NEEDED TO PREV FCST. FOR FORECAST INTO MONDAY ONLY CONCERN IS TEMPS AS MODELS SIMILAR IN BUILDING UPR RIDGE ACRS CNTRL U.S. WITH ABV NORMAL HEIGHTS. DRY AIR...SNOW FREE GROUND AND FULL INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW GOOD DIURNAL RANGE SUNDAY. SPCLY WITH WRM ADVCTN AND A SOMEWHAT W COMPONENT TO SFC WNDS...W/NW EARLY THEN PRBLY SSW IN THE AFTN. AGAIN SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE PREV FCST WHICH LOOKS GOOD AND FITS RIGHT IN LINE WITH NEW GUID. INCREASING S WNDS AND CONTD WARM ADVCTN THEN CONTS INTO MONDAY ...WITH 850 MB THERMAL RDG...AT LEAST 12 DEG C...NOSING UP INTO CNTRL NEBR BY 12Z. THIS SHOULD KEEP READINGS MONDAY MORNING ABOVE THOSE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING. AGAIN WITH EITHER FULL OR NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED MON...READINGS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S. MIXING OUT AVNS 850 MB TEMPS WOULD YIELD LOW/MID 70S OVR FCST AREA MON. SO FEEL FWC NUMBERS TOO COOL...SPCLY ACRS THE N...AND WL TREND 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABV THEM N TO ARND 3 DEGREES ABOVE THEM ACRS THE S. WL MENTION BREEZY ALL AREAS AS 850 MB WNDS ARE FCST IN 30-40 KT RANGE. FOR THE EXTENDED...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWV TROFS LIFTING ACRS CNTRL PLAINS WE WL RUN A CHC OF PCPN BEGINNING LATE TUE AND CONTG THRU THU. .OMA...NONE CHERMOK ne SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 853 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2000 UPDATED THE ZFP TO INCLUDE ALL AREAS WITH WIND ADVISORY TODAY. 50 TO 55 KT LOWER GATES OF MERRIMAN PROFILER AND 40/50 KT FORECAST OF H85 WINDS ON THE RUC WARRANT THE EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY. SECOND SURGE OF 5MB PRESSURE RISES COMING THROUGH THE REGION ATTM. INCLUDED ENTIRE CWFA IN THE WIND ADVISORY. THE WORST OF THE WIND SHOULD BE BEFORE 1 PM...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. BUT DECIDED NOT TO GET CONFUSING WITH ENDING TIMES. THIS ALLOWS FOR AN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON UPDATE AS NEEDED. .GID...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES. MORITZ ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 850 PM EST SAT FEB 26 2000 BETWEEN UPSLOPE STRATO-CU WHICH HAS MADE IT AS FAR N AS THE SW VA/NW NC BORDER...AND STRATUS AND FOG ASSOC WITH THE BACKDOOR FNT IN NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MOST OF THE FA SHOULD BE M CLDY/BECMG M CLDY OVERNIGHT. MAY CHANGE SE WV/FAR SW VA TO P CLDY. NO SIGN OF PCPN YET WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT WITH THE ETA...M-ETA AND RUC ALL SHOWING VERY LGT PCPN IN NW NC...WILL ADD A 20 POP TO THE ZONES. WILL PROB NEED TO ADJUST TEMPS AND/OR ZONE GROUPINGS IN RELATION TO THE BACK DOOR FNT. RECORDS FOR SUNDAY... BLACKSBURG 75 1977 ROANOKE 72 1961 LYNCHBURG 74 1944 BLUEFIELD 70 1996 VA...NONE. WV...NONE. NC...NONE. JJ va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA 335 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2000 PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK EXCEPT WILL HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER...SO WILL END MENTION OF RAIN EARLIER ON SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING E ACROSS THE PLAINS. JET LEVEL RUC ANALYZED WINDS STILL SHOW DIGGING 120 KNOT JET ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AT 500 MB...MUCH STRONGER WINDS ARE ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND SATELLITE SHOWS MAIN VORT CENTER SHEARING AND LIFTING NE NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER. SECONDARY VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL TX AND COUPLED JET PATTERN SHOULD STILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AS UVV INCREASES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAVING JUMPED EAST WITH COOLER DRIER AIR WORKING DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALONG THE OLD PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...NEARING THE MS RIVER FROM W OF KHEZ TO W OF KLFT AT 20Z. CLEARING LINE IN E TX IS WHERE OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS...BUT NOW TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER...IN THE 65 TO 70 RANGE VERSUS 55 TO 60 IN THE RAIN COOLED AREAS IN LA. RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO OUR NW FORECAST AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE IS ALSO NOTED WITH CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS IN S CENTRAL LA VERSUS 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN S CENTRAL MS. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE NEAR SW CORNER OF MS AROUND 00Z TONIGHT... KBTR AROUND 03Z...KMSY AROUND 06Z...AND NEAR KMOB TO MS RIVER MOUTH AT 12Z SUNDAY. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE TONIGHT...AND KEEP MENTION OF LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG MID/UPPER WINDS SHOULD MAKE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS THE MAJOR THREAT WITH SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A BIG PROBLEM... HOWEVER...SOME PLACES COULD PICK UP A QUICK INCH OR INCH AN A HALF. FOR SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PERSIST NEAR THE FRONT EARLY...OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE FORECAST FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS WITH MILD AND DRY PACIFIC AIR TAKING CONTROL. DRY AIRMASS WILL MEAN COOLER NIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS BACK MUGGIER AIR AGAIN ON TUESDAY. EXTENDED FORECAST... TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AND WARM AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL WATCH NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY. MCB 51/68/40/71 7000 BTR 54/70/43/72 7000 MSY 59/71/50/71 6100 BIX 63/71/45/68 6200 .NEW...NONE. LA...NONE. MS...NONE. 22 la EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1045 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2000 MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLOUDINESS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PARCELS RISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SWATH OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC2 INDICATES SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO SW OVER LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT...CREATING SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO SEA BREEZE REINFORCED FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER... WITH ATMOSPHERE EXTREMELY DRY ABOVE 800 MB ALONG WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CAP...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR 1ST PERIOD. MARINE...WINDS AT BUOY 009 HAVE BECOME S DUE TO AN APPARENT WEAK COASTAL TROUGH/CLOUD BOUNDARY OFFSHORE NE/E CENTRAL COAST. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO LOSE IDENTITY DURING THE DAY AS HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT SEA BREEZE FLOW COMMENCE. THUS WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BECOME MORE SE BEFORE BEGINNING TO VEER IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING FRONT. BUOYS STILL REPORTING 3 FT EASTERLY SWELL WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE CWF...AS WELL AS PROLONG GREATER THAN NORMAL RIP CURRENT THREAT. WITH BEACH CONTACT OBSERVING RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING AND MET/OCEAN CONDITIONS REMAINING FAVORABLE...WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY TO INDICATE SUCH. THANKS FOR COORDINATION JAX. .MLB...NONE. BRAGAW/SPRATT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 221 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2000 UL TROF ACRS CNTL US LIFTG NE INTO NEW ENGLAND IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW REPLACED WITH RIDGE FM MS DELTA TO WRN GRTLKS THROUGH F48. MODELS SIMILAR IN OVERALL SOLN. WL TEND TWRD NGM SOLN AS IT SEEMS MORE REASONABLE THAN ETA IN LLVL TEMP PROFILE...ETA A BIT TOO COOL 925- 700MB. AT 07Z CDFNT ENTERING FAR WRN ZNS OF CWA. WL TIME ENDING OF PCPN CNTRL-ERN CWA PER LTST RUC...ENDING BY NOON FAR ERN ZNS. ONCE PCPN EXISTS CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST. LLVL THERMAL TROF REMAINING W OF FA MOST OF DAY AND INTO WRN ZNS LT. WL WORD MCLDY W AND CLDY OR CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS RMNDR. TEMPERATURES FALLING ERN ZNS BUT MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT RECOVERY FAR W AND WL MENTION HIGHS THERE. ALSO WL CONT WITH COOLER WORDING AS 24HR TEMP CHANGE SHOULD BE ABOUT 15-20F. GRDL CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH SIG AMS EXCHANGE WITH FROPA FG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF PSBLY W. OVERNIGHT 4TH PD WITH GRTR FG CHNCS BUT THIS STILL IN EXTNDED. DRY AMS WITH VERY LOW PWATS 0.15-0.25 AND DVM WL GO MSNY AND TEMPS REBOUNDING ABOUT 5F. CONTD MODERATION THROUGH EXTENDED. WL AWAIT MRF AS CHC OF SHRA MAY BE WARRENTED BY DY5. MISFWA AVBL. .IWX...NONE MURPHY in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1133 AM SUN FEB 27 2000 VIS SAT LOOP SHOWS BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHEILD ACROSS WISC AND ALREADY CROSSING VERY SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS SUPPORTS LATEST RUC SHOWING A MUCH QUICKER EXIT OF LO LEVEL MOISTURE THAN 12Z ETA HAS. THIS IMPLIES THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE WET WX AS VORT ROUNDS BASE OF H5 TROF THIS AFT ACROSS S LOWER MI. INDEED...THERE IS NO WX ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE NOW OVER MN-WI-IA REGION. ONLY EFFECT FOR US MAY BE TO PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THIS AFT. I WILL DROP POPS AND ONLY MENTION SPRINKLES/FLURRIES UP NORTH WHERE MOISTURE LINGERS A BIT LONGER THIS AFT. .GRR...NONE. OSTUNO mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 950 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2000 MRNG VSBL PICS SHOW PLENTY OF BREAKS IN LOW CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION (OF COURSE) AROUND BROOME COUNTY. WHERE IT IS SUNNY TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY RISING AND HELPING TO MIX DOWN GUSTY SWLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN. IN SERN ZNS A LIGHT SELY COMPONENT PROVODING SOME WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND KEEPING COLD AIR AND LOW CLDS LOCKED IN. THIS AREA THE LEAST LIEKLY TO BREAK UP TODAY AND WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN FOR AFTN. ELSEWHERE AM PLAYING A PTLY SUNNY SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN...EVEN HERE IN BROOME AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. LAST FEW PICS SHOW SOME BREAKS IN DECK OVR SERN BROOME COUNTY SO AM HOPING THIS WILL CONT. KBUF RADAR SHOWS NARROW BAND OF BKN SHWRS ENTERING WRN PA/NY ATTM. EXTRAPOLATION OF LEADING EDGE HAS IT INTO WRN CWA TOWARD MID AFTN. THIS BAND HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP AS IT MOVES E SO LEADING EDGE MAY JUST BE COMPRISED OF SCT LGT SHWRS BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP SHWRS IN FOR CNTRL ZNS FOR LATE AFTN. 12Z RUC HAS LEADING EDGE OF PCPN JUST INTO CNTRL ZNS BY 00Z SO FEEL IT WON'T MAKE IT TO EXTRM ERN ZNS TIL THIS EVE AND WILL TAKE IT OUT THERE. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON JUST HOW MUCH SUN ANY PLACE GETS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN SYR AREA ONLY BECAUSE THEY ARE STILL SHOWING A LIGHT ERLY FLOW AND IF THAT HOLDS LONG ENOUGH IT WILL TEMPER THE RISE IN TEMPS. WILL CONT FLOOD WATCH FOR TNGT BUT REALLY DON'T HAVE MUCH TO ADD AS THINGS ARE PRETTY QUIET FOR NOW. .BGM...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT... NYZ044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048 HOLMES ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 935 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2000 LATEST SAT IMAGRY INDICATES PCPN MOVG A BIT FASTER THAN 00Z MODELS PROGGED. LATEST RUC RH CLOSER TO REALTY. DEWPTS ACROSS THE FA HAVE RISEN TO ARND 60. INSOLATION B4 CLDINESS MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ...LIS AND CAPE STILL SOMEWHAT MARGINAL BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TSRA. MAY INCREASE POPS BY 10-20 ACROSS MOST SUTHERN AND/OR WESTERN ZNS. WILL WAIT UNTIL FCST ISSUANCE TIME TO DECIDE. ISOLTD SVR POTENTIAL STILL POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENUF TO INCLUDE IN ZNS. MAY UPDATE OPU LATR TODAY TO REFLECT THE PSBLTY. CURRNT FCSTD TEMPS LOOK ON LINE BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND MORNING SNDINGS. CWF...PG TO INCREASE THIS AFTN WHICH WILL ALLOW SPEEDS TO REACH 15-20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. MAY TWEAK PCPN PORTION ...OTHERWISE ALL LOOKS AOK. .ILM...NONE. DCH nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 1050 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2000 WILL BE QUITE A CHANGEABLE DAY WITH EARLY MARINE STRATUS E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VARYING DEGREES OF SUNSHINE...AND A THREAT OF SWRS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. THINK NHK WILL BE ONE TO WATCH...FOGGY AND 43 DEGS AT 10AM WITH A BREEZE OFF THE COLD BAY. WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE 60S WITH SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. STRAT AND FOG IS ERODING. CNTIES IMMEDIATELY E OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LAST TO GO...INCLUDING HERE IN THE IAD AREA. BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD BE GONE BY 2PM. FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. 12Z RUC KEPT PRECIP IN THE MNTS THRU 00Z...BUT 12Z ETA SPREADS IT FURTHER E WITH .13 INCHES AT DCA BY 00Z...SO WILL KEEP POPS FOR ALL BUT ST MARY/S AND CALVERT IN THE FAR SE ZONES. POPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 30 OVER DCA AND BALTO...TO 80 IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WILL ALSO KEEP TSTMS IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST. ALTHOUGH PRECIP ONLY SCT SHWRS ATTM...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD INVIGORATE IT SOMEWHAT. STILL...WOULD ANTICIPATE ONLY SCT TSTMS AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHWRS. .LWX...NONE. STRONG md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1049 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2000 CF TO MOVE EAST ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION AND INTO THE ST LAW VLY TODAY...THEN ACRS THE FA TONITE. PREFER 00Z AVN SOLN BASED ON 12Z POSN OF FRONT/PCPN. AVN NOT STRONG ENUFF WITH SFC LOW IN NORTHERN ONT THOUGH. WK WAVE OF LOW PRESS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONITE...ENHANCING ANY QPF THAT FALLS. UPR LVL TROF TO PASS THRU THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND TONITE. PW VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT TO BE AROUND 0.75". 09Z RUC SHOWS SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TODAY (ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN NY). TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE 50S FROM THE CHAMP VLY WESTWARD AND INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN VT. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...THESE TEMPS PROLLY STILL TOO COLD FOR TODAY. H85 MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACRS NORTHERN NY TODAY WITH THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN IN THE ST LAW VLY. RUC SHOWS LOWEST LVL MOISTURE STARTING TO DRY UP IN EASTERN VT (WHERE LOW CLDS HAVE CONTINUED TO HANG TUFF) AFTER 18Z. CT VLY WILL HAVE THE HARDEST TIME CLEARING TODAY. RUC KEEPS UPR LVL DYNAMIX AND ANY MEASURABLE PCPN TO THE WEST OF THE FA TODAY. CURRENT SAT PIX/RADAR TRENDS SHOW CLDS/PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH CF MOVING MOSTLY NORTHEASTWARD ATTM. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT PCPN BRINGS IT INTO THE ST LAW VLY BY AROUND 20Z AND THE ADIRONDACKS BY AROUND 22- 23Z. HAVE REGROUPED MORNING UPDATE ZONE GROUPINGS BASED ON CURRENT CLD COVER TRENDS. HAVE TWEAKED GOING TEMP/WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED ON CURRENT OBS TRENDS. RECORD HI TEMPS TO BE EXCEEDED TODAY EASILY IN MOST LOCATIONS THAT WE KEEP TRACK OF. LOOK TO RERBTV LATER FOR ANY DETAILS. HYDRO-WISE...A FEW RIVER GAGES ARE WITHIN 2-3' OF FS ATTM. RIVER UNDERWENT SOME PRETTY GOOD RISES FROM YESTERDAY/S SNOWMELT. WITH MORE SNOWMELT TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND IMPENDING RAINFALL TONIGHT FEEL THAT AN FFA ACRS ALL ZONES WOULD BE WARRANTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE WHERE IT/LL BE GETTING THE WARMEST TODAY (NORTHERN NY). SE VT WILL STAY THE COLDEST AND SHOULDN/T SEE AS MANY FLOODING DIFFICULTIES. ICE JAMS WILL BE A DEFINITE THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WORK ZONES GONE. WILL UPDATE ADMBTV FOR FFA AND HAVE FINAL ISSUANCE OF ZFP OUT BY 11 AM. .BTV...FFA NYZ026>031-034-035-VTZ001>012 THROUGH TONIGHT. MURRAY vt