WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 344 AM MST THU FEB 24 2000 STORM MOVING THROUGH UT AND AZ SHOWING CONFLICTING DEVELOPMENTS SOME OF WHICH SUPPORT MORE SNOW OVER SWRN CO OTHER SUPPORT LESS. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH CURRENT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR CO CNTRL AND SW MTNS AND UT'S LA SAL AND ABAJO MTNS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC/MESO ETA TROP PRES/PV AND VORT FIELDS SHOW ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPPING INTO THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE SRN CA COAST. IT APPEARS THIS WILL ENCOURAGE A BIT MORE SPLITTING OF THE TROUGH WITH TIME AND TAKE SOME DYNAMIC LIFT TO SOUTH. AT SAME TIME THIS IS SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY KEEP MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER SAN JUAN FOR LONGER PERIOD TDA AND TNGT. FORECAST SOUNDING AND TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW GOOD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ...BUT SWLY WINDS DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 18Z TDA. MORE THAN ANYTHING THIS IS WHAT COMPELLED ME TO LEAVE THE ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE AND NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT FRONT MAY NOT PASS GJT UNTIL CLOSE TO 06Z TNGT. INSTABILITY STILL GOOD ENOUGH FOR MENTION OF TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HOLD OFF GRADUAL SHIFT TO W THEN NW FLOW ALOFT UNTIL ABOUT 06Z. SNOW IN S WILL DECREASE THEREAFTER BUT THEN INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS OF CWA. FRI WILL DECREASING PCPN ACROSS THE AREA. NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED AS MIDRANGE MODELS KEEPING TROUGHY PATTERN IN PLACE. CUOCO .GJT...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TDA AND TNGT CO SW AND CNTRL MTNS AND SE UT MTNS...UTZ28 (MTNS)...COZ009/010/012/018/019. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 PM EST THU FEB 24 2000 OVERNIGHT FCST CONCERN IS FOG. WV IMAGERY SHOWS REMAINS OF CUTOFF LOW PROGRESSING INTO E GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...W U.S. TROF CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS E THRU ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN NCNTRL LWR MI. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY WAS PRODUCING LIGHT E/NE WIND FLOW ACROSS FA. FOG HAS YET TO THICKEN THIS EVENING AND WONDER IF ADVECTION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM ONTARIO IS REASON. WHILE WIND ACROSS LAND PART OF FA IS GENERALLY AROUND 5KTS...MARINE OBS ARE SHOWING 15-20KT NE WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR...ALLOWING FOR BETTER ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR TOWARD FA. 00Z RUC/ETA SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE NIGHT WHICH WOULD END ANY ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR THAT IS OCCURRING. IN ADDITION...11-3.9MICRON IMAGERY IS SHOWING A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND LIKELY RAPID FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS WISE TO LEAVE DENSE FOG ADVY UP FOR CNTRL FA...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF WHAT HAS HAPPENED LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM THEN. WILL ADD 4 E COUNTIES INTO ADVY AS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL OVERNIGHT...INCREASING RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN ADDITION...AS FLOW VEERS SOUTHEASTERLY...WILL LOSE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR. WILL LEAVE FAR WEST OUT OF ADVY AS E FLOW DOWNSLOPES...MINIMIZING POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. .MQT...DENSE FOG ADVY OVERNIGHT/FRI MORNING MIZ001-003>007-010>014. ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1120 AM EST THU FEB 24 2000 WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR POPS THIS AFTERNOON. 88D TRENDS INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS SURFACE WARM FRONT DRIFTS NORTH...SO TOO WILL FOCUSING MECHANISM. STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING CWA DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE...PLAN TO GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA...AND CATEGORICAL WORDING FOR NORTHERN HALF OF CWA...TRENDING TO SCT SHOWERS LATER. WILL CONTINUE WITH RUMBLE OF THUNDER. RUC AND MESO-ETA INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. RUC EVEN SUGGESTS SURFACE LI/S TO SLIP BELOW ZERO ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND 00Z. A QUICK PEEK AT NEW ETA SHOWS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY NICKING THE SOUTHERN CWA AROUND 00Z. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ADD MENTION OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO EARLY EVENING FORECAST. WILL ALSO WIDEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW SIDE FOR POINTS FROM FNT NORTH. .DTX...NONE. OKEEFE mi SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 901 PM MST THU FEB 24 2000 .FRI AND SAT... CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW SITTING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IDAHO THIS EVENING. ENHANCEMENT SHOWING UP FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND WRAPPING AROUND INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST WYOMING...READY TO MOVE INTO FORECAST AREA. COLDER TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING COVERING WESTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE PRECIP AREA IS SNOW. TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY PRECIP IS STILL PRETTY MUCH CONVECTIVE...WITH HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS THE BILLINGS AREA. HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO BILLINGS BY 10 PM. DRY SLOT THAT AVN HAD MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IS SHAPING UP ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING...BUT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WITH SYSTEM APPEARING TO BE CLOSED...DRY SLOT SHOULD WRAP INTO IDAHO. 02Z RUC SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...WITH HEAVIER PRECIP COVERING WESTERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY MORNING. AM CONCERNED THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVIER THAN FORECAST FOR NON-SNOW ADVISORY AREAS OF WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE ALONE FOR NOW BUT BEEF UP WORDING. WILL ALSO FRESHEN UP WORDING IN A FEW ZONES. UPDATE BY 930 PM. SCARLETT .SUN...MON...AND TUE... CONTINUED PROGREESIVE PATTERN WITH SYSTEM TO CROSS STATE SUNDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY AND WARM BY TUESDAY. BORUSM. BIL SEEEB 028/037 025/045 026/045 030/049 028/053 578630 59 LVM SEEEB 025/037 025/047 024/046 028/050 026/054 57+831 59 HDN SEEEB 025/037 025/045 025/046 028/050 027/054 578860 59 MLS PJEEB 030/037 028/042 024/042 026/047 026/051 574884 59 4BQ PJEEB 032/039 030/042 024/043 026/048 026/052 574884 59 BHK PJEEB 032/039 030/042 022/042 024/046 024/050 574884 59 SHR SEEEB 028/037 025/043 024/042 024/046 024/050 578+80 59 mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 915 PM EST THU FEB 24 2000 00Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SFC TROF EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW FROM WRN MI SOUTHWEST INTO NRN INDIANA. HOURLY SFC RUC DATA SHOWED A DEW POINT TONGUE NOSING INTO WRN OHIO AND SRN MICHIGAN. THIS MOISTURE FEED COMBINED WITH A LOW LVL 925 MB JET WAS PRODUCING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CLE SOUTHWEST INTO E CNTRL INDIANA. AS THE LOW LVL JET WEAKENS OVERNIGHT (AS UPR LVL LOW OVER MICHIGAN MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...WL HAVE TO CONTINUE A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE SOUTH OF THE WAPAKONETA AREA AFTER 10 PM. SFC TROF STILL LOOMS TO THE WEST. WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE DECISION ON WHETHER TO REMOVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER FCST PROBLEM TONIGHT IS THE SKY CONDITION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACRS THE SRN CWFA. BELIEVE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REFORM OVERNIGHT AS LOW LVL INVERSION DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE WHEN AND HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL THEY PRODUCE. WILL ALSO MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON THIS. .ILN...NONE HICKMAN oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1000 PM CST THU FEB 24 2000 MADE RELATIVELY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST FOR REST OF TONIGHT. REMOVED POPS FOR REST OF TONIGHT...AS MOST MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW 850 MB TILL AFTER 12Z...ACCORDING TO 00Z ABR SOUNDING...AS WELL AS NEW AND PREVIOUS ETA RUN. THOUGH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RH WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...AS INDICATED BY RUC AND T-HT SECTS FROM ETA...NOT SURE IF ALL AREAS IN EASTERN 1/2 OF CWA WILL DEVELOP DENSE FOG AS FCST. WINDS COULD KEEP AIR MIXED ENOUGH THAT PROBLEM IS MORE WITH LOW ST THAN FOG. WITH A BIT LIGHTER WINDS AND A BIT COOLER TEMPS THOUGH...AREAS COULD SEE VIS LOWER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.LEFT IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL DZ...BUT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE. ALSO ADJUSTED WORDING FOR FRI...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO BASIC ELEMENTS OF FCST. SFC LOW OVER SW NEBRASKA MOVING SLOWLY NE AT THIS TIME. RUC 7H HTS OVERLAID ON WV LOOP SHOWS UPR LOW OVER W WY AND DRIFTING SLOWLY N. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z ETA SEEMS TO INDICATE ETA HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. GOOD SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CWA. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WHICH ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH. DID DROP TEMPS A NOTCH OVER OUR TWO MN COUNTIES WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY IN 35-40F RANGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEY WILL FULL MUCH BELOW THIS. .ABR...WINTER STORM WATCH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES OF MINNESOTA. LORENS sd DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 915 PM CST THU FEB 24 2000 OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO RESPOND TO THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ARE NOW OVER 20 KNOTS. WILL KEEP SCA UP FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE BAY. WILL LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AS WINDS FOR THE MOST PART ARE BELOW CRITERIA. WITH CONVECTION INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WILL LIKELY REMAIN BREEZY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH SPEEDS MAY DROP OFF TOWARD MORNING. THE LATEST RUC DOES SHOW THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND 500 MB VORT PATTERN IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INTO MEXICO THAN THE LAST SYSTEM. IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SOME COLDER CLOUD TOPS FORMING OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH COULD ME THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS COMING DOWN THE RIO GRANDE LATER TONIGHT. BOTH THE LATEST RUC AND ETA MODEL SHOW A STRONG VORT DIGGING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INTO MEXICO THAN PREVIOUS MODELS HAD EARLIER SHOWN. DRYING OVER NORTHCENTRAL MEXICO ON WATER VAPOR LOOP CONFIRMS THIS. DRT SOUNDING IS LOOKING FAIRLY GOOD FOR CONVECTION ALTHOUGH BRO IS NOT AS FAVORABLE. WILL WATCH A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE IF DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER MEXICO BEFORE ADDING POPS OUT WEST FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 69 INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO .BRO...SCA GMZ130-150-155-170-175. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 316 PM CST THU FEB 24 2000 PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT IS ONE OF POP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL HANGING ON TOUGH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING NEAR 60. SURFACE DRYLINE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN. HOWEVER...ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE AT BEST ONGOING SO FAR. ALOFT...NEXT SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH A STRONG JET OF WELL OVER 100 KNOTS DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA. FOR TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH SOME INDICATION THAT MOISTURE DEPTH MAY BE GREATER THAN THE 12Z MODELS HAVE INDICATED...PERHAPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATER RUNS OF THE RUC. HOWEVER...AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE AND PUSHES INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE BETTER CONVERGENCE. AT THIS POINT...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO BUST THROUGH THE REMAINING CAP. WILL INCLUDE ALL AREAS IN AT LEAST CHANCE POPS...WITH BEST ODDS ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR FRIDAY...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. SOME COLD ADVECTION WILL BE GOING ON DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AVN MUCH STRONGER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IN ANY CASE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS BLEAK...SO WOULD ONLY EXPECT ANOTHER BOUT OF WIND...EVEN IF THE AVN IS CORRECT. IN THE EXTENDED...MRF..THE UK...AND YESTERDAYS ECMWF ALL SUGGEST ANOTHER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MONDAY. ABI 055/067/041/067 500 SJT 054/069/040/068 400 JCT 058/070/040/067 400 .SJT...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. 07 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX 1232 PM CST THU FEB 24 2000 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED TO NEAR A KCDS TO WEST OF KMAF LINE. WITH THIS DRYLINE BACKING FARTHER WEST THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...AND WITH THE DRYLINE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR EAST UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS TO BE...WHEN WILL THE CAP ERODE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP?. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM STILL WELL TO THE WEST...FEEL THAT ANY MID LVL COOLING WILL ARRIVE MUCH LATER TONIGHT. RUC DERIVED SOUNDINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS IN OUR NORTHEAST CWA PROG CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. I FEEL THE LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK LOOKS VERY REASONABLE...WITH THE BEST PROGGED INSTABILITY AND AN EXTREMELY STRONG LOW LVL JET EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. .MAF... TX...NONE NM...NONE PV tx DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 955 AM CST THU FEB 24 2000 BIG STORY TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC GRADIENT PROGGED BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. KBRO VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWS WINDS IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 5 KFT WITH SURFACE WINDS ALREADY GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING. SO WIND ADVISORY DEFINITELY ON TRACK. WITH MESO-ETA SHOWING WINDS IN THE 925 MB LAYER INCREASING FROM 30+ KNOTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON AND WITH SFC GRADIENT INCREASING FURTHER FROM AN ALREADY INCREDIBLE 16 MB BETWEEN THE PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN GULF PER MSAS TO AROUND 18 MB THIS AFTERNOON PER RUC/MESOETA. WILL OBVIOUSLY MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORY TODAY...BUT WILL BEEF UP THE WINDS. WAS CONTEMPLATING HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGH CATEGORY WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MAY NEED TO COME BACK TO THIS CONTEMPLATION BEFORE NOON. WINDS SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT...SO WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXTENDS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS CLOUD FREE. LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF TAMAULIPAS ARE RATHER PATCHY. SO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA LOOKS ON TRACK. MARINE...WITH WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER A LARGER FETCH WILL KEEP SCA GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AND PROBABLY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. SYNOPTIC...CORDERO (64) MESO...WIGGINTON (56) HMT...WATKINS .BRO...SCA FOR GMZ130-150-155-170-175. WIND ADVISORY FOR TXZ248>255. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX 739 AM CST THU FEB 24 2000 LOW CLOUDS PUSHING NW-N INTO ERN CWFA. HAVE SENT UPDATE TO INCLUDE MORNING CLOUDS. OTHERWISE RUC HOLDING LOW LEVEL MSTR IN ACROSS NERN CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS THOUGHTS FOR SEVERE A FEW SEVERE NE STILL LOOK GOOD. .MAF... TX...NONE NM...NONE GPM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 951 AM EST THU FEB 24 2000 HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PROBABILITIES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED THE PROBABILITIES THERE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RUC SHOWS SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. .RLX... WV...NONE. VA...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 336 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2000 UPDATED REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY... ...SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE ROCKIES WITH A LLJ RUNNING FROM TEXAS INTO IOWA WITH 55-65 KNOTS AT ITS CORE. MAIN SHORTWAVE IS JUST ABOUT TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH THE WIND MAX NOT FAR BEHIND IN ARIZONA. ANOTHER NICE SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE WYOMING/MONTANA AREA. EVENING UPPER AIR STILL SHOWS A JET STREAK OF 150-160 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF ENERGY AS THIS SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. IR AND FOG PRODUCT SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE RUNNING FROM FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO WEST TEXAS PER LIGHTNING DATA WHICH PER RUC COINCIDES WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRONGEST 850 MB WINDS. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE DEPARTING LOW OVER LAKE HURON WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT BACK INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. TWO LOWS WERE NOTED WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM...ONE NORTHWEST OF KAIA AND THE OTHER JUST EAST OF KLIC. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED NORTHEAST FROM THE COLORADO LOW INTO NEBRASKA AND THEN TURNED EAST MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT APPEARS TO FORMING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI HAS BECOME ACTIVE WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 50S OVER MOST OF MISSOURI AND INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WERE NOTED AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE TIMING OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT...THEN CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES. 00Z MODELS DID A FAIR JOB OF INITIALIZING BUT ALL WERE HAVING SOME TYPE OF PROBLEM AT 06Z. NGM HAS THE CORRECT STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BUT MISSES THE ONE DEVELOPING EAST OF KLIC. ETA/AVN TOO WEAK WITH NEBRASKA LOW AND DITTO ON THE NEW LOW NEAR KLIC. ETA CORRECTLY CAPTURES THE 60 DEW POINTS INTO ARKANSAS WHILE NGM/AVN DO NOT. NGM HOWEVER IS BETTER WITH THE DEW POINTS OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA COMPARED TO AVN/ETA. MODEL TRENDS OF BEING TOO WEAK AND FAST WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS CONTINUES WITH THIS RUN. RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE AVN/ETA THAN THE NGM. THEREFORE WILL FAVOR AN AVN/ETA MIX BUT A LITTLE SLOWER... STRONGER...AND A TAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST GIVEN THE FACT THE MAIN JET ENERGY HAS YET TO ROUND THE TROF. AVN/ETA SHOW SOME QG FORCING AND SLIGHTLY LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP. LLJ CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY WITH 60-70 KNOTS OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY ADVECTING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR INTO THE AREA. MAIN EVENT TO BE MAINLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT BUT FAR WEST AREA MAY SEE SOMETHING JUST PRIOR TO THAT. STRONG QG FORCING AND VERY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE AREA WITH NICE SPEED SHEAR IN THE VERTICAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT SSE DIRECTION NEAR THE SURFACE THAT QUICKLY BECOMES SSW AND UNIDIRECTION ALOFT. THOUGHTS YESTERDAY ABOUT SQUALL LINE LOOKS EVEN MORE CERTAIN NOW WITH INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE WITH WIND/HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. FAR SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE IN THE GREATEST DANGER AND AGREE WITH SPC OUTLOOK. FURTHER NORTH BELIEVE LOW TOPPED SQUALL LINE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BEING AFTER 00Z. SLOWING THINGS DOWN JUST A TAD WOULD PLACE SQUALL LINE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST ARE AT 06Z WITH IT SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY STALLING OVER THE EASTERN HALF TO THIRD. GIVEN THIS AND THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL NEED TO ADD POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GROUND STILL QUITE DRY AND SLOWLY THAWING OUT SO FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. PRECIP THREAT TO LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE ENDING WITH CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE SATURDAY MORNING WITH NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. COMMA HEAD TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME QG FORCING AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARGUE TO KEEP CURRENT MENTION OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. FWC LOOKS TOO COLD AND HAVE BEEN THROWN OUT IN FAVOR OF FAN NUMBERS. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED FURTHER SOUTH YESTERDAY FAN MAN BE A TAD COOL AS WELL AND WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGHS. RECORDS FOR TODAY... DBQ...64 IN 1930 CID...65 IN 1930 MLI...68 IN 1932 BRL...70 IN 1932 ...EXTENDED... WILL NOT CHANGE EXTENDED ATTM. COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...ILX...AND STL. .DVN...NONE. NC il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 237 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2000 ...SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE ROCKIES WITH A LLJ RUNNING FROM TEXAS INTO IOWA WITH 55-65 KNOTS AT ITS CORE. MAIN SHORTWAVE IS JUST ABOUT TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH THE WIND MAX NOT FAR BEHIND IN ARIZONA. ANOTHER NICE SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE WYOMING/MONTANA AREA. EVENING UPPER AIR STILL SHOWS A JET STREAK OF 150-160 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF ENERGY AS THIS SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. IR AND FOG PRODUCT SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE RUNNING FROM FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO WEST TEXAS PER LIGHTNING DATA WHICH PER RUC COINCIDES WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRONGEST 850 MB WINDS. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE DEPARTING LOW OVER LAKE HURON WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT BACK INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. TWO LOWS WERE NOTED WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM...ONE NORTHWEST OF KAIA AND THE OTHER JUST EAST OF KLIC. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED NORTHEAST FROM THE COLORADO LOW INTO NEBRASKA AND THEN TURNED EAST MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT APPEARS TO FORMING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI HAS BECOME ACTIVE WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 50S OVER MOST OF MISSOURI AND INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WERE NOTED AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE TIMING OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT...THEN CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES. 00Z MODELS DID A FAIR JOB OF INITIALIZING BUT ALL WERE HAVING SOME TYPE OF PROBLEM AT 06Z. NGM HAS THE CORRECT STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BUT MISSES THE ONE DEVELOPING EAST OF KLIC. ETA/AVN TOO WEAK WITH NEBRASKA LOW AND DITTO ON THE NEW LOW NEAR KLIC. ETA CORRECTLY CAPTURES THE 60 DEW POINTS INTO ARKANSAS WHILE NGM/AVN DO NOT. NGM HOWEVER IS BETTER WITH THE DEW POINTS OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA COMPARED TO AVN/ETA. MODEL TRENDS OF BEING TOO WEAK AND FAST WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS CONTINUES WITH THIS RUN. RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE AVN/ETA THAN THE NGM. THEREFORE WILL FAVOR AN AVN/ETA MIX BUT A LITTLE SLOWER... STRONGER...AND A TAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST GIVEN THE FACT THE MAIN JET ENERGY HAS YET TO ROUND THE TROF. AVN/ETA SHOW SOME QG FORCING AND SLIGHTLY LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP. LLJ CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY WITH 60-70 KNOTS OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY ADVECTING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR INTO THE AREA. MAIN EVENT TO BE MAINLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT BUT FAR WEST AREA MAY SEE SOMETHING JUST PRIOR TO THAT. STRONG QG FORCING AND VERY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE AREA WITH NICE SPEED SHEAR IN THE VERTICAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT SSE DIRECTION NEAR THE SURFACE THAT QUICKLY BECOMES SSW AND UNIDIRECTION ALOFT. THOUGHTS YESTERDAY ABOUT SQUALL LINE LOOKS EVEN MORE CERTAIN NOW WITH INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE WITH WIND/HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. FAR SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE IN THE GREATEST DANGER AND AGREE WITH SPC OUTLOOK. FURTHER NORTH BELIEVE LOW TOPPED SQUALL LINE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BEING AFTER 00Z. SLOWING THINGS DOWN JUST A TAD WOULD PLACE SQUALL LINE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST ARE AT 06Z WITH IT SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY STALLING OVER THE EASTERN HALF TO THIRD. GIVEN THIS AND THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL NEED TO ADD POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GROUND STILL QUITE DRY AND SLOWLY THAWING OUT SO FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. PRECIP THREAT TO LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE ENDING WITH CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE SATURDAY MORNING WITH NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. COMMA HEAD TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME QG FORCING AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARGUE TO KEEP CURRENT MENTION OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. FWC LOOKS TOO COLD AND HAVE BEEN THROWN OUT IN FAVOR OF FAN NUMBERS. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED FURTHER SOUTH YESTERDAY FAN MAN BE A TAD COOL AS WELL. ...EXTENDED... WILL NOT CHANGE EXTENDED ATTM. COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...ILX...AND STL. .DVN...NONE. NC il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 440 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2000 DISC: LETS SEE...TURNING COOLER..BUT STILL WELL ABV NRM. HMMMM! ANYWAY...SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH EXTREME NW NJ. SECOND AREA MOVING DUE EAST THRU CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA IN RESPONSE TO VORT MAX LIFTING OUT BY 12Z. STRONG UPR RIDGE BUILDNG ALNG E COAST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPING UPPER LOW OVER CO. STRONG JET AT BASE OF LOW OF 100+ KT DIGGING INTO OLD MEX AS SEEN ON WV. STARTING TO LOOSE HIGH LVL MOIST ACROSS SRN PART OF CFA WITH RUC2 FOR 06Z SHOWING MEAN RH OF ONLY 40-50%. VERY STRONG WAA FROM BRO THRU NRN PLAINS WITH MODEST WAA MOVING ACRS NRN OHIO INTO WRN PA. NEXT ITEM IS THE INVASION OF THE LO LEVEL MARINE AIR AND STRONG SFC HIGH SPREADING SE FROM JAMES BAY INTO NATLC. WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS AT LEVELS EQUAL TO NORMAL "HIGH" FIRST WEEK OF MARCH WE SHOULD GET OFF TO A QUICK START IN REACHING HIGHS INLAND OF 60 OR SO BEFORE WE SEE ONSET OF ONSHORE WINDS AND SOME LO LVL CLDS ON THE HORIZON LATER IN THE DAY. BUFKIT PAINTING A MOIST PIX EARLY ON BUT FEEL THAT AT 18Z E FLOW IS STILL TO THE NRN I.E. ON A LINE FROM EWR TO ABE. SRN EXTENT OF MARINE AIR PUSHES DOWN THE COAST TO FENWICK ISL DE WITH ETA MOST WELL DEFINED. HAD TO RUN TO RECORD BOOKS TO SEE HOW OUR 51 TEMP IN PHL SHAPES UP FOR BEING HIGHEST OVERNIGHT MIN. WITH FEW HOURS OF DARKNESS NO WAY RECORD BROKEN HERE WHICH IS 54 FOR NIGHTTIME LOW SET IN 1930. METNION OF PCPN(RAIN) WILL REMAIN IN FCST WITH GREATEST CHANCE INVOF OF SFC BACKDOOR/WRMFNT INTO TNT. QUITE A TEMP DIFF ACROSS THE FRONT FOR FEB AND HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRZL. QPF AMNTS <.10 INCH. DAY TWO GUID TEMPS ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT CAPTURED WELL BY EARLY FCST PCKG AND DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A CHANGE THERE. FOR FIRST TIME IN DAYS SEASTATE WILL UNDERGO CHANGE WITH SWELLS DOMINATING THE WAVE SPECTRM BUT REMAINING BLO SCA OR BARELY UP TO 5 FT. .PHI...NONE. SEE YA EBERWINE (CHANGED MON WX AFTER LOOKING AT MRF) pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 950 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2000 BUOY DATA AND RUC PROGS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON W OF AQQ...SO WILL INCLUDE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN UPDATES. 12Z TLH SOUNDING INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR CUMULUS DECK AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SO PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING SHOULD SUFFICE. WILL UPDATE FORECAST & TAKE OUT AM FOG. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A FIRE IN LAFAYETTE COUNTY...BUT FORTUNATELY ADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP US OUT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES ALONE. .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AQQ-DESTIN 20-60NM OUT. TJT/MCT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 225 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2000 ZONES... RAIN OVR FA ATTM...XCP FAR NRN COOS CNTY NH AND ME MTNS TO N OF WVL WHERE JUST CLOUDY. ETA/RUC HANDLING QPF BEST SO FAR. IF THIS CONTS THEN LWR QPF PER ETA PREFERED OVR WETTER NGM TDY WITH PCPN SHIELD CUTTING OFF ON NRN FRINGES OF GYX FA. BRKS IN UPSTREAM PCPN PER RADAR MOSAIC SUPPORT THE LWR QPF. CD FNT S OF FA AND CONTG MOVG SWD. ALL MDLS CONT TO BRG COLD AIR IN BLO THE 850 MB LVL TDY WITH A DEEP /UP TO 3K FT/ LYR BLO FRZG TO SUPPORT RAIN CHGG TO SLEET THIS MRNG. SFC TEMPS STILL WELL ABV FRZG MOST OF FA ATTM AND WL LWR TDY...APPCHG LWR TO MID 30S /AND A LTL COLDER NRN ZNS/ SO SOME PCKTS OF FRZG RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SO FAR NO IP/ZR BEING RPTD WITH THIS SYSTEM...PCPN ALL RAIN WITH BLO FRZG TEMPS NORTH OF THE PCPN SHIELD. STILL THE NERLY LO LVL WNDS WL CONT TO ALLOW COLD AIR TO POUR SWWD ACRS FA AS COLD CAN HI MOVS SE ACRS ONT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK TDY. USING BUFKIT TO LOOK AT MDL VERT TEMP FCSTS AND PTYP ALG WITH AWIPS THICKNESS VALUES 1000-850 AND 850-700 ALG WITH 925MB AND BNDRY LYR TEMPS TO PREDICT PCPN TYPE TDY. ALSO LOCAL PTYP STUDY SUPPORTS MXD PCPN EVENT /MOSTLY SLEET/. PCPN WNDS DOWN THIS EVNG AS UA SUPPORT IN FORM OF SHORT WAVE AND WK 50 KT 300 MB JET MOV E OF FA. PCPN HOLDS OFF ON SAT BUT LOTS OF CLDS HANG ARND AS HI RH FCSTD BY MDLS. WL GO AT OR BLO FWC TEMPS AS NGM USUALLY HAS TROUBLE WITH TEMPS WHEN IN TRANSITION /EG AFTER CD FROPA WITH DECENT LO LVL CAA/. NGM TEMPS LOOK OK TNGT AND SAT. NGM POPS GENLY OK...THO WENT A LTL HIER TDY...CAT XCP LIKELY FAR NRN NH AND AUG/WVL/RKD AREA AND ONLY CHC MTNS/FOOTHILLS ZNS BDRG CAR ZNS. HAVE CONSIDERED A WNTR WX ADV FOR SLEET AND POCKETS OF FRZG RAIN TDY. HOWEVER DONT FEEL QPF ENUF AND ANY FRZG RAIN TO BE SPOTTY SO WL HOLD OFF ATTM. CWF... WNDS/SEAS BLO SCA AND WL STAY THERE TDY...THO SOME GUSTS FM THE NE MAY APPCH 25 KT TDY AND ERY TNGT. BASED ON LATEST OBSVD DATA MAY ADJUST 1ST PD FCST OF ZNS AND CWF. .GYX...NONE. SJC me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1110 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2000 WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS LATE MORNING NORTH OF THE 925 MB AND SURFACE WARM FRONTS THAT ARE GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO. AT THE SURFACE...THE 15Z ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF VPZ...THROUGH FWA...AND ACROSS FDY AND YNG. REALLY LARGE CONTRAST IN THE 925 MB TEMPERATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH DTX 925 MB 12Z TEMPERATURE ONLY 6 DEGREES CELSIUS...BUT 17 AT ILX. PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONTS. WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW YORK WILL MAINTAIN A DIMINISHING TROUGH IN ITS WAKE OVER EAST CENTRAL MICHIGAN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONTS NORTH WILL BE SLOW...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING MORE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ALL DAY...WITH LOW CLOUDS REMAINING OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THE THUMB...BUT THE MESOETA AND RUC SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC IMPRESSION OF THE LOW LEVELS. ON THOSE SOUNDINGS...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES RISE ENOUGH TO REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND PROVIDE FOR SOME MIXING AND BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS. DUE TO THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARMER AIR...WILL OPT TO SLOW THE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THINK AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 69 WILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...BUT HAVE A MORE PESSIMISTIC IMPRESSION OF ANY CLEARING FARTHER NORTH. THE SAGINAW VALLEY WILL ALSO RECEIVE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. APPARENT ACC OBSERVED ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES OVER NORTHERN INDIANA CORRELATES WELL WITH WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OVER THIS AREA LATE THIS MORNING...BUT WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. STABILITY OF MODEL SOUNDINGS AND DIMINISHING STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD RESULT IN VERY LOW CHANCE OF ANY SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS...AND WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS ALWAYS... WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE FOR A ROGUE SHOWER TO OUR SOUTHWEST. .DTX...NONE. DJF mi EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1045 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2000 LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS CONTINUING TO MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN SEVERE SO FAR EXCEPT FOR ONE POSSIBLE GUSTNADO IN NORTHEAST TULSA. HOWEVER...LINE IS MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR INTENSIFICATION. EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS SEEN TEMPORARY CLEARING BEHIND THE LINE. QUESTION WILL BE IF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH WAS PULLED EASTWARD WITH THE INITIAL LINE CAN BE REPLENISHED THIS AFTERNOON. GLIMPSE OF AREA PROFILERS INDICATE LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN BACKING SINCE THIS MORNING AFTER HAVING TURNED WESTERLY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SHARP NARROW LINE OF CUMULUS FORMING WEST OF FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR REDEVELOPMENT FOR MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. ONLT GLIMPSED AT NEW RUC...BUT IT SEEMS TO SHOW RAPID PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AROUND 18Z FROM BVO-ADM. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. ON THE UPDATE PACKAGE...MAY LOWER POPS IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF TULSA. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT DOWN MIXING SO WILL ONLY GO WITH A CAUTION FOR AREA LAKES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER LOOKING AT 16Z TEMPS HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER MAXES A CATEGORY DUE TO THE CLOUDS. OUTPERIODS WILL BE LEFT UNCHANGED. FCSTID = 11 .TUL... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1018 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2000 ANY SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STIFF NORTHEAST WIND BLOWING INTO THE AREA AND THIS HAS COOLED THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN. THE SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY NEW YORK WHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXIST. WILL ADD CLINTON COUNTY NEW YORK TO THIS ADVISORY AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA AS WELL. EAST OF THIS AREA...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THIS HAS LIMITED SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SHALLOW COLD AIR INTO VERMONT AND INSTEAD HAS KEPT IT ACROSS PARTS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IN HERE AS LONG AS THIS FEATURE EXISTS. LATEST RUC FORECAST DOES MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE THROUGH 18Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THAT IS ENHANCING DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS HELPED TO SET UP A DEFORMATION ZONE FROM FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH BURLINGTON AND OVER TO SAINT JOHNSBURY. AREAS NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THIS LINE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM MAY HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING STEADY PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS WITH THE DIFFICULT TIME OF COLD AIR GETTING INTO THAT AREA MAKES THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN PROBLEMS IN JEOPARDY. SO WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO MAKE A DECISION ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LEANING RIGHT NOW TO GETTING RID OF IT AT 1100 AM. REST OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. WORK ZONES IN ALBADMBTV EVENSON .BTV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON VTZ003-004-007 AND NYZ026-027-028. vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1049 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2000 FIRST WARM FRONT NOW SWEEPING NORTH THROUGH CLARK COUNTY WISCONSIN. SECOND WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF KCAV TO KCWI AND MOVING NORTH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT MOVING NORTH FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHERN ZONES OF LA CROSSE FORECAST AREA. KARX RADAR INDICATES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. KDMX RADAR HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL IOWA WHICH WAS MOVING GENERALLY NORTH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF OUR NORTHEAST IOWA COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VISIBILITES WERE IMPROVING AS THE FIRST WARM FRONT SWEPT NORTH AND WILL DROP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR REMAINING COUNTIES. RUC 14Z RUN INDICATED PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AT 17Z...AND THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS AFTER 20Z. .LSE...NONE. NELSON wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1030 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2000 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL MN. SOME CLEARING IN SRN MN IN WAKE OF SYSTEM. FOG HAS GENRALLY LIFTED OVER FORECAST AREA WITH WIND AND RAIN. A COUPLE OF AREAS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC MODEL FOCUSES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN WRN IA AND LIFTS LINE OF SHOWERS NEWRD BY MID AFTERNOON...AREA OF THICKNESS DIFLUENCE SHOULD BE FOCUS. THESE SHOWERS COULD AFFECT PART OF S CENTRAL MN AND W CENTRAL WI. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN WRN KS/NEB WILL LIFT NEWRD AND TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS INTO SW MN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE (SEE SWODY1 DISCUSSION). FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE DEVELOPMENTS. .MSP...NONE. SCOTT mn