AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1030 PM EST TUE FEB 21 2000 FOG LOOPS SHOW LOW CLOUDS COVERING ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER...EXTENDING OUT INTO LAKE MICHIGAN TO AROUND GULL ISLAND...AS WELL AS ACROSS MACKINAC AND EASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTIES. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE ALSO SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE STATE. PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND FOG POTENTIAL. 00Z UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF DRIER AIR OFF TO THE WEST...AND 12Z MODELS/LATEST RUC CONTINUING TO VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. THIS WOULD IMPLY A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT AN INCREASE IN FOG POTENTIAL WITH ALREADY LOW TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY WITH 40+ DEGREE DEW POINTS CREEPING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER/SOUTHEAST WI. WILL MENTION CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS ALL AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF M-32...WITH A MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR SOUTHERN ZONES. MOISTURE NOT EXTENDING TO ANY GREAT DEPTHS/COLD TEMPERATURES... AND WITHOUT MOISTURE BEING ABLE TO TAP ELEVATED INSTABILITY IMPLIED BY FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN AREA RAOBS...MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT. GOING TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED ARBZFPAPX WILL BE OUT BY 0345Z. .APX...NONE. JPB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1100 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2000 ...DISSIPATING FG/LOW CLDS AND MAX TEMPS ARE UPDATE ISSUES... AREAS OF FOG...EXTENT OF MIXING...AND EVEN WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL IMPACT UNSEASONABLY MILD MAXIMUM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. MONITORING EVOLUTION OF FOG AREAS ON VIS IMAGERY OVER W AND E UPR MI. 06Z MESOETA 925MB RH FIELD HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THESE FEATURES AND ADVECTS HIGHER RH NE OVER KEEWENAW WHILE MAINTAINING VALUES ABV 75 PERCENT EAST AN MQT-IMT LINE THIS AFTERNOON. RUC DEPICTS H95 WINDSPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT THIS AFT WHICH WILL AID MIXING OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...SO DO EXPECT EROSION FOG FROM W PERHIPERY IN E MQT/DICKINSON COUNTIES. DOWSLOPING SHOULD ALSO AID IN ADVECTING FOG OFFSHORE IN W ZONES. 12Z GRB RAOB DEPICTED +10C AT TOP OF 920MB INVERSION..WHICH GIVEN FULL SUN WOULD YIELD MAX SFC TEMPS ABV 60F. HOWEVER W/ RUC DEPICTED 925MB TEMPS 1-4C (COOLEST NE) OVER UPR MI AND UPSTREAM AC/CI APPROACHING FROM MN/WI..AND SNOWCOVER..50F SEEMS REASONABLE FOR INLAND LOCALES WEST OF SAW-IMT LINE. ONSHORE FLOW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM MNM-ESC-P75/ISQ (AIDED BY LAND-LAKE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL) KEEPING LAKESIDE TEMPS NR 40. EVEN REMAINING SUPERIOR LAKESIDE LOCALES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE WEAK LAKE BREEZE AS LAND-LAKE DELTA T'S APPROACH 10C AND H95 15-20KT WINDSPEEDS IMPLYING LAKEBREEZE MAY EXTEND INLAND 1-3SM. WILL FRESHEN WORDING TO REFLECT LATEST FOG/CLDS TRENDS AND TWEAK TEMPS UP A BIT FOR SOME CENTRAL LOCALS. .MQT...NONE. WOLF mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1045 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2000 WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO DROP THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...SIGNIFICANT BREAKS HAVE OPENED UP IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES OF FORECAST AREA AND UPSTREAM ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LATEST RUC AND 12Z ETA SUGGEST A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT 950-850 MB...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE LOOPS. 850 MB TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN LOW UPSTREAM PER 12Z ANALYSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE IN THE 285-295K LAYER...SO ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...WILL STILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY COVER FORECAST (PARTLY SUNNY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY) FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE...WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. FINALLY...SURFACE GRADIENT FAVORS SOME ONSHORE COMPONENT OF FLOW ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WILL INDICATE COOLER NEAR LAKE (AROUND 40/LOWER 40S) IN COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MICHIGAN (AND FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY ALONG LAKE HURON). ALONG THE REST OF LAKE HURON...950 MB WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TOO STRONG FROM SOUTHWEST TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE FLOW. .APX...NONE. ROWLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 745 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2000 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPANDED TO ENTIRE FORECAST AREA... WILL UPDATE NPW/ZFP SHORTLY TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. SEVERAL TRENDS THIS EVENING POINT TO FOG FORMATION. SEVERAL STATIONS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ALREADY REPORTING <1/4SM FG. WARM FRONT ACRS SRN MN NR SRN EDGE OF SNOW COVER...AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE BECOME CONVERGENT ALONG THIS FEATURE. LATEST RUC CONTINUE TREND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN SRN MN/WRN WI OVERNIGHT. FINALLY...DEWPOINTS ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO FCST AREA ARE HIGHER THAN CURRENT AIR TEMPS/GROUND TEMP OVER FCST AREA. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT VSBYS TO COME BACK UP AS RAIN MOVES INTO SRN CWA LATE. THX TO LSE FOR COORD. .MSP...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT ENTIRE MPX FCST AREA DAVIS mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 945 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2000 SHORT TERM CONCERN IS FOG LIFTING AND AFTERNOON TEMPS. VISIBILITIES STILL DOWN BUT SOME HINT OF COMING UP IN LATEST OBS. PROBLEM IS SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER AREA. RUC IS PICKING UP THIS UP IN HIGHER LEVEL RH AND SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE FORECAST OVER AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CARRY ADVISORY INTO AFTERNOON BUT ISSUE UPDATED SHORT TERM. FOG WILL LIFT FASTER DURING AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS THIN. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS SEEM OK BUT MAY DROP A BIT CENTRAL..AND RAISE IN SW. RUC SURFACE TEMPS OF UPPER 50S IN SW NOT BAD AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. .MSP...NONE RICHARDSON mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 955 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2000 TEMPS IN A COUPLE AREAS IN NE ARE DROPPING A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND NEARLY STEADY DEW POINTS SHOULD OTHERWISE KEEP FORECAST ON TRACK. THAT SAID...MORE SIGINIFICANT CONCERN IS FOR FOG IN EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC RH AT OR APPOACHING SATURATION. ETH AND VVV AS WELL AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN COUNTIES BORDERING TRAVERSE AND BIG STONE COUNTIES TO THE EAST ALREADY REPORTING VISIBILITIES AROUND 3SM. RUC DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ON YET THOUGH...AS AREAS NOW FOGGING IN STILL DEPICTED AS HAVING GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 PERCENT SFC RH AND FCST SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH THROUGH THE NIGHT. BELIEVE PERSISTENCE IS A FAR BETTER FCST TOOL THAN SHORT RANGE MODELS TONIGHT...AND WILL LEAVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR MN COUNTIES AS IS...THOUGH OUR COUNTIES BORDERING TO THE WEST BEAR CLOSE WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONS TO THE ADVISORY LATER. .ABR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY BIG STONE/TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MN TNT. LORENS sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 913 PM EST TUE FEB 22 2000 HI PRESS RIDGE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TO THE EAST OF NEW ENG TONITE AS A STORM SYS TRACKS ACRS CENTRAL CANADA. WK CF TO DROP DOWN ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON WED. FA TO BE LEFT IN W-SW FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. FA TO BE UNDER WK H85 WAA (WITH MAX OCCURRING IN CANADA TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE FA) THRU 00Z THU. H85 MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACRS NORTHERN NY BY 12Z WED AND THEREAFTER ACRS THE REST OF THE FA. H85 TEMPS AND 925 MB WET-BULB TEMPS WARM ENUFF TO INDICATE THAT AREAS THAT WILL BE RECEIVING PCPN FIRST SHUD SEE RA. UNFORTUNATELY...NO 40KM RUC DATA OR BUFKIT DATA AVAILABLE FOR P-TYPE ANALYSIS HERE AT BTV DUE TO LOCAL COMPUTER PROBLEMS. MAY HAVE TO ADD MENTION OF SPOTTY FZRA IN ST LAW VLY BY MORNING AT THE LAST MIN. BUFCAN SHOWS AREA OF PCPN PASSING THROUGH YOW RVR VLY ATTM...MOST OF THIS PCPN TO PASS HARMLESSLY BY THRU CANADA WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE BORDER COUNTIES. MAY USE THE STF TO COVER ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN IF THINGS GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT. HAVE ADJUSTED OVRNITE LOW TEMPS AND CLD-COVER BASED ON LATEST OBS TRENDS. H85 JET MAX TO PASS BY TO THE NORTH IN CANADA OVRNITE...SO NOT TOO CONVINCED OF STRONGER WINDS OVRNITE...BUT HAVE KEPT IN WORDING OF HIR GUSTS FOR NOW. UPR LVL DYNAMIX TO PASS BY MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FA ON WED. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WED LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH ONLY A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES. HYDRO-WISE...EVERYTHING LOOKS OK FOR NOW WITH MOST RIVERS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTER TODAY/S SNOWMELT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WORK ZONES GONE. FINAL ZFP AFTER QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST LAMP DATA. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1107 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2000 SKY COVER CHGS PRIMARY CONCERN FOR MRNG UPDATE. 16Z SFC ANLYS PLACES SLOW MOVG FNTL SYS THRU CNTRL NE WITH LOW LVL MSTR STREAMING NWD. DWPNTS ALREADY INTO MID 50S OVR EXTRM SWRN IA. LOW CLDS ALSO MAKING RAPID MOVMT NWD WITH ST TO KADU-KDSM-KOTM LN. 925MB PROFILER INDCS LOW LVL FLOW OF 35-40KTS FM ERN KS INTO NRN MO. CLDS OF VARIOUS HGHTS SHOULD OVERSPREAD RMNDR OF FA THIS AFTN SO WENT MSTLY CLDY OR BCMG MSTLY CLDY. SUN AND MIXING WILL NOT BE MUCH HELP FOR TEMPS TDA. WL LIKELY KEEP DECENT INVERSION IN PLACE SO READINGS SHOULD NOT SKY ROCKET. HWVR LOW LVL MSTR ADVCTN SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO RAISE TEMPS ARND 10 DEGREES SO HAD TO UP HIGHS A BIT IN SOME ZNS. CANNOT REALLY FIND MUCH FORCING FOR LATE AFTN SHWRS PER 12Z RUC OR LOOK AT CURRENT WX...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSIFY PULLING A LOW 30 POP SO LEFT IN SRN SXNS. .DSM...NONE SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 1105 AM EST WED FEB 23 2000 CLOUDS OVER ALABAMA APPEAR TO DRY UP AS THEY PUSH INTO UPPER RIDGE OVER N GA. LATEST RUC TIME CROSS SECTION NOT PROGGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THAT PART OF STATE EITHER. WILL ADJUST TWEAK ZONES TO JUST PARTLY CLOUDY IN NORTH. OTHERWISE ZONES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH TEMP AND WINDS...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS IF ANY THAT AREA. .ATL...NONE. DH ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 955 AM CST WED FEB 23 2000 12Z MODEL ANALYSIS PAINTING A BLEAKER PICTURE OF RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. MOISTENING AND COOLING OF 850 TO 700 MB LAYER REQUIRED FOR CONVECTION. PROGRESSIVE AVN IN SYNC MORESO WITH RUC THAN ETA REGARDING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THIS LEVEL. ANY TRANSIENT COOLING DURING AFTERNOON THIS LAYER SHOWN TO REVERSE BY EVENING. ASIDE FROM THIS...STEEP LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON OUN MORNING SOUNDING AND BELIEVE THIS MID LEVEL COOLING TRANSLATE EAST AND MAY AFFECT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO CATCH ARKANSAS PORTIONS WHERE WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT POP ENHANCEMENT. LOW LEVEL VEERING AND MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP. PRUDENTLY LEAVE AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED FOR EVERYONE THIS AFTERNOON BUT STINGY FOR THIS EVENING. WILL CLEAN UP WORDING ON ZONES OF MENTIONS OF THIS MORNING AND MAY ADJUST WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE RELAXING TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS RATHER CONSISTENT IN LOWER 60S AT MID MORNING AND VARIABLE CLOUDS COULD MAKE FIDDLING WITH THESE TRICKY. VII .SHV...NONE. IV la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1110 AM EST WED FEB 23 2000 FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE DENSE FOG/POPS/TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND CLOUDS/POPS/TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. VISIBILITY HAS STARTED TO INCREASE AT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN UP. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MENTION AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO DISCONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...12Z KAPX 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE WAS ALMOST 8C/KM. HOWEVER...12Z KAPX SOUNDING WAS QUITE DRY...AND PER 88-D CROSS SECTIONS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...RADAR RETURNS HAD INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 30 MINUTES. FARTHER WEST...SHOWERS WERE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN/WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE MOISTURE WAS SOMEWHAT DEEPER AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WAS EVIDENT ON 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. THESE SHOWERS WERE HEADED TOWARD THE EASTERN UP. 12Z ETA/RUC DATA SUGGEST THAT MOIST AXIS WILL LIFT TOWARD NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PER RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS...WILL ADD SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY 0Z...CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ANYWHERE WITHIN MOIST AXIS...AND WILL ADD MENTION OF THUNDER AS WELL. ACROSS THE SOUTH...WILL CARRY EARLY SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 50S... MOST LIKELY BELOW RECORD HIGHS. .APX...NONE. ROWLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 336 AM CST WED FEB 23 2000 ...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHEN TO END PRECIP/CLOUDS... 06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD ONE LOW IN THE TX PANHANDLE WITH ANOTHER... LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTION...IN C KS. FOG WAS PRETTY THICK INITIALLY HERE AT LBF AT 06Z...BUT INCREASING LIFT AND EVENTUALLY CONVECTION HAS HELPED TO STIR THINGS UP A BIT. RADAR ECHOES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS SW NEBR INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THIS AREA AS INDICATED BY THE RUC. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AS ATMOSPHERE NEEDS TO SATURATE A BIT MORE. FOG N NERN CWA SHOULD LAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...BUT SHOULD LIFT SOME AS CONVECTION NEARS. IN THE BIG PICTURE...MODELS NOT TOO DIFFERENT WITH MAIN FEATURES. ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FILLING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM MATURES AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE WANES AND HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. ETA/AVN SEEM TO SHOW THE MATURING PROCESS A LITTLE BETTER THRU 24 HRS...FORMING A CLASSIC T-BONE SHAPE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN. NEXT SYSTEM STILL OFF THE WEST COAST HANDLED SIMILARLY AS WELL...BUT NGM/AVN MAINTAIN A TIGHTER THERMAL GRADIENT ALOFT BY 48 HRS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. FOR TODAY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBR DURING THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS NE. WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER FAIRLY STEEP...WILL CONTINUE TO WORD AS SHOWERS. BELIEVE THAT NW OF A LINE FROM ANW-MHN-SNY OR SO WONT SEE MUCH WITH BEST FORCING IN ERN HALF OF CWA...HOWEVER...STILL FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE NWRN CWA. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HOLD ON ACROSS THE ERN CWA FOR THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AS WELL IN THE E TONIGHT AND IF PRECIP HAS CREATED WET GROUND...FOG SHOULD BE EASY. FOR TEMPS...LIKE THE FWC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART WHICH IS COOLER AND MAKES SENSE WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY. FOR THURSDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT GET GOING AHEAD OF NEXT OPEN WAVE TO SLIDE THRU THE AREA FRI. ETA/AVN INDICATE LIFTED INDICES < 0 BY 00Z FRI WHICH IS EVIDENT BY H7-H5 LAPSE RATES. AGREE WITH SPC ON THE ELEVATED CONVECTION ISSUE BY LATE EVENING...HOWEVER IF SLOWER ETA VERIFIES THAT AREA MAY BE SHIFTED BACK TWD SW NEBR...WHICH I THINK COULD HAPPEN. MOISTURE RETURN WILL OBVIOUSLY BE THE QUESTION. WILL ADD THUR NIGHT PERIOD TO EXTENDED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE. WILL ACTUALLY TREND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE SW FOR TEMPS THU THINKING THAT CLOUD COVER WON/T BE AS EXTENSIVE AS NGM THINKS. FOR THE EXTENDED...GOING EXTENDED LOOKS OK...EXCEPT MAY SPLIT SAT FROM SUN TO GO WITH LOWER MAXES ON SAT. SUN LOOKS QUITE WARM. .LBF..NONE. JWS ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 822 PM EST TUE FEB 22 2000 HI PRES ONCE AGAIN CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLC CST...RIDGING SWWD THRU THE SERN STATES. LTST STLT SHOWING SUM CU WELL OFF THE CST AND SUM AC OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS DISSIPATING AS IT TRIES TO MOVE SE. SKIES SHUD REMAIN M/CLR OVN AND WL WORD FCST THAT WAY. TEMPS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN. EVE DEWPTS RANGE FM LOW 30S WELL INLAND TO LOW 40S CST WITH RESIDUAL SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. EXPECT LO TEMPS TNGT SIMILAR OR JUST ABOVE READINGS FROM LAST 2 NIGHTS WITH CLR SKIES/LGT WINDS. WL TAKE LOWS DOWN TO 30-35 WELL INLAND TO 40-45 CST. WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS. CWF: DECENT FETCH OVER THE WATERS BUT LOWER WIND SPEEDS CLOSER TO SHORE PRECLUDING SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE DEVELOPMENT. RUC INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE TO COASTAL GRADIENT AND BLYR FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH BROAD...POORLY DEFINED COASTAL TROF REMAINING OFFSHORE. PLAN TO CONTINUE SCA FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS GIVEN A 6 FT SEA HEIGHT REPORTED AT TOWER E OF GRAYS REEF. ELSEWHERE...SCEC SEEMS APPROPRIATE WITH NE WINDS NEAR 15 KT AND SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. .CHS... SC...NONE. GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND 20 TO 60 NM. TJR/RVT sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 845 PM EST TUE FEB 22 2000 SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING LOW/MID DECK CONTG TO SPREAD SEWD INTO THE AREA COMPLIMENTS OF WEAK LOW LEVEL VEERING(WAA) INTO NW FLOW ALOFT. OTHER THAN FOR THE FAR SW...EARLIER SPRINKLES ALL BUT GONE AND GIVEN BLYR DRY AIR SEEN IN AREA RAOBS THIS EVE MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE MENTION IN MOST ZONES OVRNGT. OTRW APRS MSTLY/PRTLY CLDY SKIES TO CONT WITH AFFECTS ON TEMPS THE MAIN QUEST GIVEN LOCAL SCHEMES INDICATING SOME SPOTS REMAINING ABOVE 40 IF CLOUDS HOLD. THIS ESPCLY TRUE OVER THE FAR WRN RIDGES WHERE THE MESO-ETA/RUC SHOW DEEPER LOW LVL RH HANGING INTO EARLY WED...SO PLAN TO INCREASE OR RANGE TEMPS A BIT THERE. ELSW...TEMPS A BIT MORE TRICKY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EWD WHERE MODELS INDICATE SOME PTNL FOR BREAKS TO DVLP LATER ON. WILL LKLY BOOST LOWS UP A NOTCH OR SO...BUT WITH DEWPTS STILL IN THE LOWER 30S MAY STILL SEE READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S TWD MORN ERN ZONES. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. NC...NONE. 10 va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR COUNTIES IN DENSE FOG ADV NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 320 AM CST WED FEB 23 2000 FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE ARE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG WITH THE DENSE FOG FOR THIS MORNING. THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM FRONT SEEMS TO SNAKE FROM THE LOW ALONG THE THE 40 DEGREE DEWPOINT CONTOUR...WINDING THROUGH CENTRAL NEB...ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN...AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL WI. 00Z MODEL RUNS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THIS TIME AROUND...WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS AND IN COMPARISON WITH EACH OTHER. WILL STICK WITH THE ETA SOLUTION FOR THE FINER DETAILS. DYNAMICS DON/T APPEAR AS GOOD AS THEY DID YESTERDAY FOR TODAY/S RAIN EVENT. SOME QG CONVERGENCE STILL INDICATED...BUT WEAKER...AND THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING STAYS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG 700 MB FROM 12Z THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 310 K SURFACE. THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FILL AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE FEATURE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. SOME LIFT FROM THE WAVE CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN ILL. MOISTURE WON/T BE A PROBLEM...WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS INDICATED BY THE RH FIELDS AND TIME/X-SECTIONS. SURFACE BASED PW/S ALSO AROUND .75 TO 1.00 INCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SOME MODERATE RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO POINTS WEST. THE NCEP DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS THIS. SOME INDICATION OF DRYING IN THE MID LAYERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN CUTS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED PCPN. ALSO...CURRENT RUC MODEL KEEPS PCPN OVER THE WESTERN ZONE CUTS THROUGH 18Z...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. ETA QPF FIELDS DUE ALLUDE TO THIS. WILL CUT BACK ON POPS FOR EASTERN CUTS TODAY AS A RESULT. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AREA/S RAIN... THOUGH...WILL BE THE DEFORMATION AREA AND WARM FRONT. VERTICAL VELOCITIES //USING THE OMEGA FIELDS// PEG OUT FROM 12Z TO ABOUT 06Z THURSDAY. WOULD EXPECT THE PCPN TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO THE EVENING...TAPERING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN FORCING SHIFTS NORTH. QPF FIELDS SHOW THIS PRETTY WELL. THUNDER CHANCES DON/T LOOK THAT GOOD ANYMORE EITHER...WITH 850:500 MB LAPSE RATES DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND THE WEAKER FORCING. NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ON THE LATEST LIGHTNING INDICATOR EITHER. WITH FOG STILL AROUND 1/4 MILE IN MANY LOCATIONS...WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS MORNING. WILL ADJUST ZONE CONFIGURATIONS THOUGH TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS...ELIMINATING SOME COUNTIES BASES ON CURRENT VSBYS (ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST). NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HASN/T PERFORMED THAT BAD OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...JUST A BIT TOO WARM. FAN CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THEN THE FWC...AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE FWC...JUST A FEW DEGREES COLDER. COORDINATED WITH DMX...MPX...MKX. .LSE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING... MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041-IAZ008-009. RIECK wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 1000 AM EST WED FEB 23 2000 KLWX RADAR SHOWING A DYING LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FROM FDK TO IAD TO CJR. KPBZ RADAR SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. 700 MB AND 500 MB PROGS FROM 06Z ETA AND 12Z RUC SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA... EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF US SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. PRECIPITATION DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INTO SURFACE RIDGE... SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF DCA/BWI. WILL ADD A FEW SPRINKLES OR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITIES. VIS LOOP SHOWING ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT THAT A FEW MORE BREAKS WILL SHOW UP AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST... BUT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS THAN CURRENT FORECAST. WILL GO WITH EITHER A PARTLY CLOUDY OR A VARIABLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SUN TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S ALREADY. AREAS THAT HAVE HAD CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES AREA STILL DOWN IN THE LOWER 40S. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ASSUMING GOOD MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO RAISE TEMPS FOR THE WESTERN 1/3 OF AREA AS CURRENT TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FORECAST MAX. WILL LIKELY LEAVE THE TEMPS AS IS ELSEWHERE.. AND HOPE THAT SUN DOESN'T TAKE OVER. .LWX...NONE. MARGRAF! md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 400 PM EST WED FEB 23 2000 CONVECTIVE LOOKING AREA OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST IN AND NORTHWEST OH NOW. AM CONCERNED THAT THIS AREA COULD KICK OUT SOME SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS IS OFFERED BY 18Z RUC THETA-E ADVECTION PATTERN. ALTHOUGH BY NO MEANS DEFINITIVE...THETA-E ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OUT A LIGHT SHOWER. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN ZONES. OTHERWISE...IR LOOP AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATING MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OF CWA...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED BREAKS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS CWA DURING THE EVENING...OFFERING CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY SKIES. ETA SHOWS BEST THETA-E ADVECTION TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTH ON THURSDAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT...SHADING FROM HIGH CHANCE SOUTH TO LOW CHANCE NORTH. LOOKING AT TSRA POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT...AXIS OF BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY /850MB LI/ REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF CWA. SO WILL NOT CARRY MENTION OF TSRA FOR OVERNIGHT. FWC/FAN TEMPS ACCEPTED. TOMORROW...NGM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN KICKING OUT QPF/S OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH ACROSS CWA...WHILE ETA OFFERS ONLY ABOUT 0.15 INCH. PW/S ON BOTH MODELS APPROACH 1 INCH...CERTAINLY HEALTHY FOR LATE FEBRUARY. CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE NGM PRECIP IS BROAD AREA OF HIGH MEAN RH...COVERING NEARLY ENTIRE LOWER MI...AND STRONG UVV. HIGHER MEAN RH MAY BE RESULT OF STRONGER GULF CONNECTION ON NGM THAN ETA PER ANALYSIS OF 295K SURFACE. LOOKING AT UVV FORCING...ISENTROPIC ASCENT...VORT ADVECTION AND TEMP ADVECTION...NGM LOOKS TO BE OVERDONE. AVN UVV FIELD INTERMEDIATE TO ETA AND NGM WITH UVVS AROUND 5 MB/SEC...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. SO GIVEN MOISTURE AND LIFT...EXPECT POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT AS INDICATED BY FAN AND FWC. QPFS LIKELY TO BE MORE THAN 0.15 OFFERED ON ETA WITH 6 KM ETA SUGGESTING HALF INCH REASONABLE. WILL LEAVE RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN FORECAST. WITH MODEL CAPE NIL AND SURFACE LI/S IN POSITIVE TERRITORY NOT MUCH TO RECOMMEND TSRA. HOWEVER...AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY /ALBEIT WEAK/ DOES TRAVERSE CWA DURING THE DAY. HENCE SUFFICIENT JUSTIFICATION TO LEAVE IN RUMBLE OF THUNDER. FWC/FAN/2-M TEMPS AWAY FROM LAKESHORE LOOK GOOD. BUT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS LIKELY TO TRANSPORT ICE CHILLED LAKE AIR INLAND...WILL ADD THE TYPICAL COOLER NEAR THE LAKE TO ALL LAKESHORE /HURON...ST CLAIR...AND ERIE/ COUNTIES. TOMORROW NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO CROSS CWA DURING THE EARLY EVENING...KEEPING CHANCE OF POPS IN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AND LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTH. MODELS NOT OPTIMISTIC IN OFFERING CLEARING POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...SO MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOULD WORK. WITH SURFACE TD DEPRESSIONS BASICALLY NIL...WILL ADD MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG. PREFER SLIGHTLY WARMER FWC/2-M ETA TEMPS TO COOLER FAN WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HANG IN. FRIDAY...FWC AND FAN POPS IN THE 40S...BUT HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH FORCING SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT 40 POPS. WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING WARM AND SOUPY...A SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SO WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT POPS. TYPICALLY WITH FAN TEMPS EXCEEDING FWC TEMPS...SUCH AS THEY WILL BE...THAT/S A GREEN LIGHT TO GO ABOVE FWC TEMPS. WAA ADVECTION WILL BE KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL NUDGE TEMPS UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER FAN NUMBERS...WITH CLOUD COVER HOLDING ME BACK FROM MORE AGGRESSIVE TEMP INCREASE. IN THE EXTENDED... EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS...AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. MRF AND ETA-XX IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE CANADIAN DIVERGES TOWARD END OF PERIOD. STRONG WAA ADVECTION...TAPPING GULF MOISTURE ON 50 KNOT 850 MB WIND SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY POPS SATURDAY. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES CWA ON SUNDAY...KICKING OFF CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW...BUT 1000-850 MB INDICATE RAIN WITH LOWEST LAYERS REMAINING WARM. MODELS DEPART BEYOND SUNDAY AS CANADIAN PUSHES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOWARD CWA...WHILE MRF AND ETA-XX KEEP REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PREFER PERSISTENT PATTERN OF MRF AND ETA-XX BUILDING RIDGE IN AT SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR MONDAY SETTING STAGE FOR DRY DAY. AS HIGH PULLS OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...GULF OPENS UP AND WAA PATTERN PUMPS PROGRESSIVELY MOIST AIR INTO CWA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKS ACROSS CWA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH WARM FRONT PROGGED TO THE NORTH OF CWA...ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN. GIVEN EXTENDED NATURE OF FORECAST WILL CARRY CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. .DTX...NONE. OKEEFE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 320 PM CST WED FEB 23 2000 SYNOPSIS: WARM AND WINDY SPRING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 500 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND FILL AS IT MOVES INTO IOWA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL WEST OF THE FA AS THE SURFACE LOW ALSO MOVES INTO IOWA AND DISSIPATES. ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NGM...AVN...AND ETA ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AT 12Z FOR THE NEXT DEVELOPING 500 MB LOW, BUT THE ETA PREDICTS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW THAN THE THE NGM AND AVN MODELS. THE STRONGER 500 MB LOW FORECAST BY THE NGM AND AVN MODELS IS THE FAVORED SOLUTION SINCE THE ETA HAS TENDED TO BE TOO WEAK FOR THE 500 MB LOW FORECAST IN RECENT SIMILAR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE 19Z FORECAST RUC SOUNDING FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA(WITH SLIGHT MODIFICATION FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE) STILL SHOWS 0-3 KM HELICITY AND CAPE COMBINATION THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE SUPERCELLS. (FORECAST VALUES OF 339 M2/S2 AND 1246 J/KG RESPECTIVELY) HOWEVER...NO STRONG "TRIGGER" IS AVAILABLE IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO GET THE STORMS GOING THIS EVENING. THE CLOSEST CONVECTION TO OUR FA AS OF 300 PM LOCAL IS IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENING IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND WILL LEAVE POPS OUT FOR TONIGHT EVERYWHERE ELSE. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE BETWEEN HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND THE NEXT SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY LOW 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS. QPF DISCUSSION: WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING DO NOT EXPECT HIGH ENOUGH BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF. IN THE EXTENDED...SOUTHERN PORTION OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE FA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT COOLING AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PRELIM NUMBERS: JAN 059/080 059/077 -00- MEI 058/080 058/079 -00- .JAN... MS...NONE. AR...NONE. LA...NONE. 15 ms COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 315 AM CST WED FEB 23 2000 NEGATIVELY TILTED 50H TROF AND ASSCTD SFC CYC WILL LIFT NE TDY THEN NEXT BROAD 50H TROF WILL INDUCE STG LEE CYCLOGENESIS THU. OUTFLOW BNDRY MOVING SE AT 26 KTS AND WILL CROSS ALL OF CWA AT OR BEFORE 12Z GIVEN DECENT ISALLOBARIC PRES RISES. LATEST RUC ALSO SUGGESTS THIS. THIS WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH SFC WND FIELD WITH VRB DIRECTION PROBABLY BEST COURSE. 08Z 11U-3.9U SAT IMAGES SUPPORT THE NGM/AVN SOLNS OF RETAINING LLVL MSTR. W CWA WILL BECOME PS/MS BUT E CWA WILL LKLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TDY PER NGM/AVN X-SCTNS. LINGERING 1000-850MB DIV Q/Q VECTOR CONVG/WK SFC FRONTOGENESIS/SFC MSTR CONVG/STILL HI PWATS ARGUES ISOLD/WDLY SCT POPS THIS AM(SPCLY E CWA). 1000-850MB THICKNESSES A LITTLE LWR TDY SO WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER E CWA PER NGM MOS AND TREND TOWARD NGM/LAMP MOS W CWA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES E CWA TNGT WILL SPREAD TO W CWA AS WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RESUMES. DIV Q/Q VECTOR CONVG SUGGESTS ISOLD POPS FOR STREAMER SHRA BUT WITH MUCH OF COLUMN FEATURING SW WNDS WILL NOT INCLUDE NOW. WILL FOLLOW AVN/NGM MOS TEMPS FOR TNGT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT THERE WILL BE FG TNGT BUT PTCHY GIVEN ALL THE CLD CVR. MORNING CLDS/PTCHY FG THU WILL YIELD TO PS/MS AFTN. WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND 85H TEMPS HIGHER TEMPS SHUD BE IN 80S XCPT ALG THE CST. LLJ WILL BE STRNGTHENING ON THU. FEEL WINDY QUALIFIER IS IN ORDER AS SFC CYCLONE DEEPENS AND 50H JETMAX BECOMES POISED TO OUR NW. MARINE: WILL MAINTAIN SCA NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WTRS THIS AM WITH ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA. WILL INDICATE SCA ALL WTRS ON THU. EXTENDED: CURRENT PATTERN CONTINUES. THU NGT/FRI WILL FEATURE WINDY CONDITIONS. A PREFNTL TROF APPEARS TO CROSS THE CWA ON SAT BUT THE ACTUAL CDFNT NEVER MAKES IT. LKLY NOT TO BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS: CRP EB 076/066/082/068 084 2-- VCT EB 076/064/081/066 082 2-- LRD BB 085/066/088/070 088 -00 .CRP...SCA GMZ250-255-270-275. (SYN)...85/BB (MESO)...80/MB tx