WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 335 AM MST MON FEB 21 2000 EACH NEW LOOK AT APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM SHOWS IT WEAKENING. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON GENERAL CHARACTERISTIC. EACH SHOWS MAIN VORT MAX DIGGING SOUTH ALONG U.S./MEX BORDER AS SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. THIS IS SUPPORTED IN LATEST RUC. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS CIRCULATION CENTER ELONGATES TO ON N/S AXIS WITH MINOR STRENGTHENING OF TROP UNDULATION SOUTH OF LOW CENTER. AREAS UP UPLIFT AND SCTD PCPN AHEAD OF TROUGH MOVING THRU WRN/CNTRL AZ AND SWRN UT THIS MORNING SHOULD ADVECT INTO SWRN CO. WILL SCALE BACK PCPN AT BIT IN FIRST PERIOD FROM CURRENT FCST WITH LOWER POPS IN VALLEYS. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS IN MTNS BUT HOLD BACK TIMING A BIT. WITH TIME IN MODELS AND FROM LATEST TENDANCIES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...PERIOD OF GOOD UVV ERN UT AND WRN CO SHORTENS TO LESS THAN 12HRS. 700 MB WINDS WEAKEN IN 00Z MODELS TO 20 KTS AND SHIFT EARLIER TO W AND NW. AVN IS ONLY MODEL WITH SGNFCNT MOISTURE DEPTH AND THAT IS VERY SHORT LIVE FROM ABOUT 06Z TO 12Z TONIGHT. ALL POINTS TO HIGH PCPN PROBABILITIES...BUT BLO HEAVY SNOW CRITERIA. ALSO RELATIVELY WARM 700 MB TEMPS OR ABOUT -4 C MEAN WET SNOW. WILL GO WITH LOW ACCUMULATIONS AND LET DAY SHIFT DETERMINE IF AN ADVY IS NECESSARY FOR TONIGHT. SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUED THRU THE REST OF THE WEAK...SHORT HARD TO TIME BREAKS IN BETWEEN. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT TREND OF CHC PCPN THRUOUT THE PD. CUOCO WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORMAL LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY. .GJT...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 245 PM CST MON FEB 21 2000 LATEST SFC AND MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAVING IT/S WARMING EFFECT WITH AMBIENT TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE 40S...EVEN OVER DENSER SNOWPACK EXCEPT OVER FAR NORTH WHERE THERE/S TOO MUCH SFC FETCH OVER SNOW FIELDS TO THE SOUTH. 40+ F SFC DPTS HAVE NOSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA...WITH 60+ AMBIENT TEMPS ACRS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF MO. VIS LOOP SHOWING STRATOCU DECK TRYING TO PUNCH NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MO. REGIONAL 88D LOOP ALSO SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE AND LOW LEVEL WARM SURGE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...PUSHING ACRS NORTHEAST MO. MODELS...NOT EVEN RUC...ARN/T PICKING UP ON THESE AND WILL WATCH TREND THROUGH ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE IF NEEDED TO ADD TO FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE TEMPS...SKY COVER... FOG/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...AND EVENTUAL RAIN CHANCES. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACRS AREA AS H85 WARM POOL ACRS PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TAPPED INTO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY H85 FLOW. SHORT RANGE MODELS ADVECT EAST PLAINS H85 HIGHER LEVEL RH/S NORTHEAST ACRS MOST OF CWA TONIGHT. CONTINUING SOUTHWEST H85 FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO DEFLECT THIS SOUTH OF NORTHERN HALF OF CWA...BUT STILL WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY FOR CWA LATER TONIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING. INTERESTING...MODELS THEN SHUNT BETTER H85 MOISTURE POOL EAST OF CWA AFTER 06Z TUE...BUT HIGHER LEVEL 1000-H85 LMRH/S CONTINUE TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH TUE SUPPORTING ONGOING MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING. STILL NOT RULING OUT A FEW BREAKS THOUGH DURING DAY ON TUE. INITIAL WEAK VORT PIECES SHEAR OUT OF DVLPNG WEST COAST TROUGH THROUGH TUE...BUT GET DAMPENED AS THEY TRY AND TOP UPPER RIDGE. MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT PIECE DOES MAKE IT ACRS AREA TUE NIGHT SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES THOUGH. INSHORTER TERM... CONCERNED THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SUPPORT FOR DRIZZLE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL RH/S DUE TO ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...SNOW MELT JUICING UP THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER...AND INCREASING SFC DPTS OVER DWINDLING SNOW FIELDS ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT ADVECTION FOG TONIGHT OVER AREAS WITH STILL SOME DECENT SNOW PACK. MAY REMOVE FROM SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SNOW HAS ERODED. NOT OUT OF QUESTION WITH ALL THESE PROCESSES FOR DRIZZLE AS WELL...SO WILL LEAVE IN MENTION WHERE FOG IS MENTIONED. MAY REMOVE FOR DAYTIME TUE HOWEVER. ETA AND NGM GENERALLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT AND LATER TUE...ALTHOUGH AVN HINTS AT A HUNDREDTH/.01/ OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING AND DVLPNG NEXT MAIN WX MAKER... BUT GENERAL SOLUTION BLEND ORGANIZES SFC LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL PLAINS/WEST KS AND WEST NE/ TUE AFTERNOON...THEN EVENTUALLY EVOLVING TOWARD SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO THROUGH 12Z WED. AS INITIAL WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM DEVELOPING PLAINS LOW SWEEPS NORTHWARD ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON...NGM AND ETA INITIATE SHOWER CHANCE AT LEAST ACRS FAR SOUTHWEST. AS SFC LOW PULLS TOWARD SOUTHWEST IA THROUGH 12Z WED...MODELS BREAK OUT CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT FROM EAST OK...ACRS WEST MO...AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WED. AVN SLOWER AND KEEPS BULK OF PRECIP WEST OF CWA THROUGH 12Z WED...AND MAY BE MORE CORRECT IN THIS DVLPNG SYNOPTIC SCENARIO. HOWEVER WITH INCRESING RH/S AND VORT TUE NIGHT...MAY TAKE COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND UP POPS ACRS THE WEST FOR LATE TUE NIGHT. BOTH NGM AND ETA WAVER RATHER UNSTABLE H85- H5 LAYER-MEAN LAPSE RATES ACRS WEST CWA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z WED. AND AS THTA-E GRADIENT COUPLED WITH NICE SFC-H85 MOISTURE CONVERGENT/UVV AXIS ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ BUILDING ACRS SOUTHWEST 2/3'S OF CWA TUE NIGHT...MAY INTRODUCE THUNDER WORDING. AVN CONTINUES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ON WED...BUT NOW INDICATES BEST H85-H7 UVV'S/POS OMEGAS...LL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND INSTABILITY FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS PUSHES SOUTH ACRS MO WED AFTERNOON...AND ACRS CENTRAL IL WED NIGHT. THESE PARAMETERS DO CLIP FAR SOUTH- SOUTHEAST CWA THOUGH...MAINLY FROM 00Z-06Z THU. MAY REMOVE WED NIGHT THUNDER WORDING ACRS NORTH. FWC AND FAN GUIDANCE MAY ACTUALLY NOT BE SO BAD IN LIGHT OF TODAY/S WARM UP AND SNOW MELT. STILL LOOK TO BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY HIGH THOUGH AND WILL UNDERCUT HIGHS. LOWS MAY ONLY BE A TAD HIGH LOOKING AT INFILTRATING SFC DPTS AND ADDITION DUE TO SNOW MELT. ...EXTENDED...THU-FRI-SAT... LOOKS LIKE MILD WX TO CONTINUE FROM END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.MRF AND CANADIAN NOW A BIT WEAKER WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED BUT OPEN UPPER WAVE DEPARTING DVN CWA REGION ON THU...WHILE THE EUROPEAN THIS RUN SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL MAINTAINS INITIALLY CLOSED UPPER LOW RIGHT OVER THE CWA EARLY ON THU. IN ANY CASE AS LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS DEPART...WRAP AROUND/BACKLASH PRECIP STILL LOOKS GOOD...ESPECIALLY FOR FIRST HALF OF DAY. SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CWA MAY STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION EARLY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN STRAIGHT RAIN WORDING FOR NOW. FRIDAY LOOKS INTERESTING. MRF...CANADIAN...AND EURO ALL INDICATE ANOTHER...BUT MUCH DEEPER SPRING-LIKE NEGATIVELY TILTED L/W TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACRS THE WESTERN PLAINS. CANADIAN THE LEAST IMPRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH AND MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE MRF AND EURO ARE DEEPER AND THUS SLOWER WITH SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS. EURO JUST INITIATES FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE MRF. THIS DYNAMIC...NEG TILTED SYSTEM REALLY WRAPS UP AS IT PULLS NORTHWARD TO A GENERAL INL LOCATION BY 12Z SAT. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...ALL THE DYNAMICS ARE THERE COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL THTA-E ADVECTION STRAIGHT FROM THE GULF AND INSTABILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SYSTEM OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY BE INITIALLY BEING HANDLED TOO QUICKLY BY LONG RANGE MODELS AND ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE OF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING/LESS IDEAL T-STORM TIME OF DAY/ ...BUT MAY INTRODUCE THUNDER POTENTIAL ANYWAY. WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK A GOOD POSSIBILITY FRI AS STEEPLY AMPLIFIED SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOOTS UP ENTIRE MS RVR VALLEY OUT AHEAD OF SYSTEM. BOUNDARY LAYER TO H85 TEMPS EVEN ON COOLEST MODEL...STILL SUPPORT CHANCE OF A 60 DEGREE READING IF SNOW IS GONE. AS OF NOW... EAST IA/NORTHWEST IL LOOKS TO GET DRY-SLOTTED ON SAT BY BOTH MRF AND EURO AND MAY GO PRECIP-FREE. TEMPS DO LOOK TO COOL HOWEVER AS COLDER H85 TEMPS GET ENTRAINED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. .DVN... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. JDH il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 230 PM CST MON FEB 21 2000 FOG POSSIBILITIES AND PRECIP THREAT ARE THE MAIN ISSUES TODAY. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MO ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY ABOVE THAT LEVEL. THIS IS FORCING IS FORECAST BY RUC TO WORKS ITS WAY EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SUPPOSE SOME SPRINKLES COULD COME OF THIS LATER TONIGHT SOUTHERN CWA, BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT PLAY THAT BY EAR. AS PER PMDHMD MODELS HAVE SOME INITIAL ANALYSIS PROBLEMS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND FURTHER, WITH THE EDGE TO THE NGM/AVN ON PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF A COUPLE SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEMS. 500 MB SOLUTIONS OF NGM AND AVN FASTER, YET DEEPER WITH CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH AND PREFERRED. EVEN WITHIN SIMILAR LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD, AVN HOLD BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS FARTHER WEST THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN NGM. HOWEVER PRESENCE OF 850 MB JET UPSTREAM FROM CWFA AND A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE SWINGING THROUGH SUGGEST A MODERATE POP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST WESTERN SECTIONS. LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY PER BOTH SETS OF MOS. STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE FORMATION STILL AN ISSUE AS TO TIMING AND LOCATION. HIGH DEWPOINTS PUSHING NORTHWARD A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, MEANING AFFECTED AREA FOR FOGGY CONDITIONS LIKELY SHRINKING NORTHWARD AS SNOW COVER ERODES FROM THE SOUTH. BEST LOW LEVEL DEWPOINT SURGE PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME AND AGAIN, AVN/NGM SEEM TO HAVE THE EDGE HERE IN TREND. MAIN FOG THREAT WOULD SEEM TO BE IN NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST IL ON TUESDAY AS HIGHER DEWPOINT EDGE EASTWARD. AFFECTED AREA SHOULD BE NORTH OF I-80 OR EVEN I-08. EVEN SO, ENOUGH WIND TO PROBABLY KEEP MOST AREAS VISIBILITIES ABOVE THRESHOLD FOR ANY ADVISORIES. SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HAVE LESS FOG, BUT STRATUS/STRATOCU AND SOME DRIZZLE STILL POSSIBLE WITH INVASION OF 50 DEGREE DEWPOINT AND CONTINUED INVERSION ON WEDNESDAY. MOS TEMPS FOR TUESDAY HIGHS STILL TOO HIGH AT RFD...WELL INTO THE SNOW COVER AND NGM MOS STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGH AT ORD. .CHI...NONE KAPLAN il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 705 PM CST MON FEB 21 2000 UPDATED ZFP AROUND 625 PM FOR SPRINKLES...AND RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS OVER SW IL...NOW MOST LIKELY MORE THAN SPRINKLES. RUC SHOWS A DECENT H7 S/WV TROF AXIS AND AMPLE 850-700MB MSTR MOVG ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH SFC TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS STILL AROUND 20 DEGREES...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHRA...WHICH WILL GO MORE IN LINE WITH ILX (LINCOLN IL) WFO UPDATED ZONES. WILL KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT SHRA GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARBONDALE IL TO MADISONVILLE KY. .PAH...NONE. ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1022 PM EST MON FEB 21 2000 EVENING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CI SHIELD BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS SHORT WAVE IN WV IMAGERY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE FROM 800- 750MB. IN CONTINUING ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 7-9K FEET AND DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...SOME HINT OF THIS ALREADY OCCURING IN IR IMAGERY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHT FOG REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND OFF OF THE LAKES...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOWER PENINSULA WHERE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS STARTED FAIRLY CLOSE. STILL 37 HERE AT APX WHERE WE GOT TO 46 TODAY DESPITE AN (INITIALLY) 18 INCH SNOW COVER. 00Z SOUNDING STILL RELATIVELY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS (DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 10C THROUGH 850MB)...AND WITH WINDS/MIXING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT NOT LIKELY TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. 12Z MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ETA... SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED LOW LEVEL RH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT. GIVEN LOW LEVEL WINDS ON UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...FROM AN ISENTROPIC PERSPECTIVE...MUCH OF THE ADDITIONAL LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO FOCUS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER...POSSIBLY SLIDING UP NORTH OF M-55 TOWARD DAYBREAK IF WINDS BACK A BIT AS PROGGED...LATEST RUC SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL. COMBINATION OF DEPARTING CI...SOME DEVELOPING MID CLOUD...AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS PUSHING IN LATE MAKE FOR SOME TRICKY WORDING. FOR THE MOST PART...KEPT EASTERN UPPER PARTLY CLOUDY...AND WILL PROBABLY DO THE SAME FOR FAR NORTHERN LOWER. REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER WILL WORD AS INCREASING CLOUDS OR MOSTLY CLOUDY DEPENDING UPON LAST MINUTE SATELLITE TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE WINDS INITIALLY WENT CALM THEN PICKED UP AGAIN (APN). ACB ALSO JUMPED TO 43 THIS HOUR...SO EXPECT TO MAKE SOME UPWARD TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS. EXPECT UPDATED ARBZFPAPX AROUND 0335Z. .APX...NONE. JPB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1053 AM EST MON FEB 21 2000 ...TEMPS AND CLOUDS ON TRACK... UPR MI UNDERGOING WAA WITH BROAD SFC HI OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPR RIDGE OVER HI PLAINS. MESOETA/RUC DEPICT UPSTREAM H4 SHORTWV APPROACHING FROM SW ONTARIO CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING H7-H3 QVECTOR CONV THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT IR/VIS IMAGERY AND A GLANCE OUT THE WINDOW REVEALS CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOC W/ THIS FEATURE ALREADY STREAMING ACROSS UPR MI W/ KMQT 88D VAD RETURNS AT 25KFT. ANOTHER SHIELD OF CI APPROACHING FROM SW MAY OVERSPREAD SE COUNTIES GIVEN THIS SHORWV FEATURE OVR NW IOWA IS FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS SUGGEST. NGM PARCEL TRAJECTORIES AND ANALYGOUS 1000-500MB THICKNESS ANALYSIS INDICATE UPSTREAM SOURCE REGION IS S CENTRAL MN. MOS PERFORMED WELL THERE YESTERDAY...AND ONLY DIFFERENCE IS LESS SOLAR INSOLATION WITH CI SHIELD HERE TODAY. MIXING THE 12Z GRB RAOB OUT BLO 950MB YIELDS 37-40F. CURRENT FCST OF MAX TEMPS NR 40F LOOK ONTRACK..SO WILL NOT UPDATE. .MQT...NONE. WOLF mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1030 AM CST MON FEB 21 2000 16Z VIS IMGS/SFC OBS SHOW FOG SLOWLY BURNING OFF ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PTN OF THE KDLH CWA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE...RUC AND MESO ETA SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH S/W MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MSTR MAINLY IN THE HIGH LEVELS...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED AC BEING NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN MN. THIS MSTR IS PROGGED TO SHIFT E DURING THE DAY...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH TODAYS FCST OF PTSUNNY. THUS...PLAN TO MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND WIND FCST. EXPECT COOLEST TEMPS TO ACTUALLY BE ACROSS SRN CWA...WHERE RESIDUAL FOG AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOW THE EFFECTS OF THE SUN. ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL ADD MENTION NR RECORD HIGHS FOR INL ZONES AS 45 DEGREES DEFINATELY IN REACH WITH LIMITED SNOWFALL. TOMALAK .DLH...NONE. mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1000 AM CST MON FEB 21 2000 RUC SEEMS TO BE HANDLING SHORT WAVE CROSSING SE SD INTO IOWA FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS BUT SOME HIGH BASED AC LOOKING A BIT UNSTABLE ON VIS. IN FACT...RUC SHOWING SOME 850-500 LAPSES RATES GREATER THAN 7C SLIDING ACROSS IOWA TODAY. CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT SW MN DURING AFTERNOON BUT PT SUNNY LOOKS GOOD ELSEWHERE. TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS BUT WELL INTO 40S AND MAYBE A 50 A GOOD BET AT LEAST SW ZONES. .MSP...NONE RICHARDSON mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 835 PM EST MON FEB 21 2000 HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS EVE RIDGING TO THE NRN FL PANHANDLE. 00Z CHS SOUNDING RATHER DRY...BUT SHOWING A LTL MOISTURE AROUND H85 MB. SUSPECT SUM CU MAY TRY TO DEVELOP TUE AFT. CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS WL DO IT FOR THE OVN. DEWPTS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES HIER THIS EVE ESP ALG THE CST WHERE A WEAK AFT SEABREEZE SET IN. EXPECT LO TEMPS TNGT TO BE A COUPLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. CURRENT FCST HAS THINGS WELL IN HAND. ONLY MINOR CHANGES ON UPDATE. WILL TWEAK WIND/SEAS DOWN A NOTCH IN S CAROLINA WATERS TO INITIALIZE WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. GEORGIA WATERS FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH SCEC NEAR SHORE AND SCA OFFSHORE. MESOETA 6-9 HOUR BLYR PROGS ARE TOO STRONG AS THE MODEL IS DEVELOPING THE COASTAL TROF FASTER THAN REALITY. LATEST RUC INITIALIZED WELL AND FOLLOWS OUR CURRENT FCST WELL OVERNIGHT. .CHS... SC...NONE. GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND 20 TO 60 NM. TJR/RVT sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 940 AM EST MON FEB 21 2000 NO SOUNDING FROM CHS THIS MORNING DUE TO BAD PRES ON INSTRUMENT. NO SECOND RELEASE. OTHER REGIONAL SOUNDING SUPPORT THE PRESENT FCST AND DO NOT EXPCT ANY SURPRISES IN THE NEAR TERM. ON THIS UPDATE WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INIT WIND DIR AT A FEW LOCATIONS. CWF...WNDS HV PICKED UP THS MRNG ACRS SC CSTL WATERS AS PG HAS TIGHTND UP A BIT. MESOETA/RUC BOTH INDICATE THAT THIS TO CONT THRU THE AFTN...AND SHUD SPREAD TO GA WATERS AS WELL. THS FCSTD WELL IN CRNT PKG AND WL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES FOR INIT CONDS. .CHS... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. MJR/WOODWORTH sc DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 940 AM CST MON FEB 21 2000 WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE WORDING OF MORNING FOG OUT WEST IN THE ZONES. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DEPTH OF SURFACE MOISTURE...UP TO AROUND 750 MB. CU FIELD ALREADY FORMING GIVING SCT TO BKN SKIES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WILL WATCH FOR POSSIBLE UPDATING OF THE CLOUDCOVER LATER TODAY. PARTLY CLOUDY CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST BUT WITH DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE...MAY SEE OFF AND ON BKN SKIES. LATEST RUC DOES HOWEVER SHOW MUCH OF THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE PW VALUES ACTUALLY LOWER DURING THE DAY. MAY ACTUALLY GET A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THE CU AS THE BOTTOMS LOOK FAIRLY DARK. WRAPPED UP STORM SYSTEM ON THE WEST COAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND AND INCREASE OUR SOUTH WINDS BY LATE TONIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS WINDY AS VORT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS. DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH SO CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE BLEAK. 69 .BRO...NONE. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 230 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2000 FORECAST CONCERNS TDY ARE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND SHRA/TSRA CHC TNGT INTO WED. CLR SKIES ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF IL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CEN-SRN MO. 05Z RUC 80 PERCENT RH FIELDS BRING THIS LOW LVL RH INTO WRN AND CEN IL 12-14Z TIME FRAME...WITH WIDESPREAD SC/ST EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. TEND TO BELEIVE THIS TREND AS UPR LVL S/WV IN N-MEX CONTS TO PULL INTO THE PLAINS WITH LOTS GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEWPOINTS OF 50-55 DEG. IN OK ARE NICE EVIDENCE OF THIS AS SFC LOW CONTS TO DVLP IN WRN KS. SO GOING ZONES FOR CLOUDY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS APPEARS FINE WITH A NICE WARMUP EXPECTED TDY WITH IMPRESSIVE WAA. FWC/FAN GUID NUMBERS ARE SIMILIAR FOR HIGHS AND WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM THEM. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILIAR IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE NGM HANDLING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE THE BEST. BUT THE ETA/NGM AND AVN DIFFER GREATLY IN THE RESPECT TO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE S/WV AS IT APROACHES IL ON WED. ALL THE MODELS ARE SIMILIAR WITH THE S/WV RAPIDLY PROGRESSING TO THE NE ACROSS WRN MO INTO ERN IA ON WED AND EVENTULLY OCCLUDING OUT OVER WI BY THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BUT THE MODELS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH AVN SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH ETA/NGM FARTHER SOUTH AND A FASTER. PREFER THE FASTER ETAS/NGM SOLUTION WIHT THIS SYSTEM WITH THE MAJOR QUESTION...SHRA CHCS THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND ALSO ON WED. ETA/NGM QPF FIELDS ARE NIL DURING THE 00-06Z/WED TIME FRAME FOR IL AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EITHER...SO EXPECT MOST OF THE SHRA CHCS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WK VORT LOBE MOVES ACROSS CEN IL BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH SOME WK OMEGA AND MOISTURE FLUX CONVG AS CEN IL MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY EARLY MORNING ALSO EXISTS AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORT MAX MOVING INTO SWRN MO AS COUPLED JET LEADS TO DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BY 12Z. SO WILL ADD A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WORDING TO LATE TNGT. THINGS GET A LITTLE INTERESTING AGAIN FOR WED AFTN AFTER A MID MORNING LULL...AS S/WV QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE INTO ERN MO AND ERN IA. NGM DROPS LI'S TO MINUS 6 ACROSS MO BY WED AFTN WITH THE ETA KEEPING THE MINUS LI'S AND CAPE NUMBERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL. INITIAL THOUGHT IS NGM TO AGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY BUT NICE DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX...WITH LESSER INSTABILITY OFF THE ETA ENOUGH FOR TSRA DVLPMNT AGAIN BY WED AFTN. SO LOOKS LIKE GOOD SHRA/TSRA CHC FOR WED AFTN WITH GOING ZONES HANDLING THIS NICELY. COORDINATED LSX THANKS. PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY... SPI CT 064/046 063/044 058 22047 PIA CT 062/045 062/044 057 22037 DEC CT 062/046 063/044 058 22037 CMI CT 063/046 062/045 058 22026 MTO CT 065/047 062/046 059 22006 LWV CT 066/048 063/045 060 22007 .ILX... IL...NONE. $$ KETCHAM il EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 945 PM EST MON FEB 21 2000 A FULL BAR OF WINDS INDICATED OVER MOST OF CWA...LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TROUBLE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE L50S. COASTAL TEMP FORECAST A TOUCH WARM...WILL DROP BY HALF A CAT OR SO. WINDS WILL NEED A MINOR DIRECTIONAL CHANGE AS WELL. MARINE...BUOYS AND SHIP REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WINDS AND SEAS AOA CAUTIONARY LEVEL. RUC AND MESOETA INDICATE WINDS WILL REMAIN LARGELY BELOW SCA LEVELS OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR FORECAST CHANGES EXPECTED. .MLB...NONE. BRAGAW fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 904 PM EST MON FEB 21 2000 MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF OF CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST CONTINUES TO ROTATE SSW TOWARD S CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO NW AT PBI AS SYSTEM NEARS E COAST. CURRENT E COAST ZONES HAVE MENTION OF NOCTURNAL COASTAL SHOWERS WHICH LOOKS GOOD. QUESTION IS WILL WINDS SHIFT ALL ALONG COAST AND EVEN INLAND WHEN/IF SYSTEM CONTINUES SW TREK? NOT MUCH DAMAGE WITH FORECASTED LOW TEMPS INLAND AND W BUT LOSING NE WIND FLOW E COAST WILL ALLOW POSSIBLY COOLER TEMPS E COAST ZONES. PBI DROPPED 4 DEGREES QUICK WHEN NE FLOW WAS LOST AND IT BECAME NW. AS NONE OF MODELS DEPICTED LOW OFF COAST EVEN THE RECENT 23Z RUC THOUGH ETA HINTED AT INVERTED TROUGH ...WILL HAVE TO GO WITH FLOW OF OCCURRING EVENTS AND PLANNING...REPEAT ...PLANNING ON AMENDING E COAST ZONES FOR WINDS AND POSSIBE LOWER MINS TONIGHT. WILL AWAIT ANOTHER HOURLY SCAN TO AFFIRM THIS THINKING BEFORE TAKING THE AMENDMENT LEAP. WINDS WILL BE TWEEKED IN CWF TO ACCOUNT FOR SHIFTING WINDS AS WELL ESPECIALLY E COAST. CONTINUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUES. .MIA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY FLZ063-066-067-069>071-073-075. fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1100 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2000 ...DISSIPATING FG/LOW CLDS AND MAX TEMPS ARE UPDATE ISSUES... AREAS OF FOG...EXTENT OF MIXING...AND EVEN WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL IMPACT UNSEASONABLY MILD MAXIMUM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. MONITORING EVOLUTION OF FOG AREAS ON VIS IMAGERY OVER W AND E UPR MI. 06Z MESOETA 925MB RH FIELD HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THESE FEATURES AND ADVECTS HIGHER RH NE OVER KEEWENAW WHILE MAINTAINING VALUES ABV 75 PERCENT EAST AN MQT-IMT LINE THIS AFTERNOON. RUC DEPICTS H95 WINDSPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT THIS AFT WHICH WILL AID MIXING OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...SO DO EXPECT EROSION FOG FROM W PERHIPERY IN E MQT/DICKINSON COUNTIES. DOWSLOPING SHOULD ALSO AID IN ADVECTING FOG OFFSHORE IN W ZONES. 12Z GRB RAOB DEPICTED +10C AT TOP OF 920MB INVERSION..WHICH GIVEN FULL SUN WOULD YIELD MAX SFC TEMPS ABV 60F. HOWEVER W/ RUC DEPICTED 925MB TEMPS 1-4C (COOLEST NE) OVER UPR MI AND UPSTREAM AC/CI APPROACHING FROM MN/WI..AND SNOWCOVER..50F SEEMS REASONABLE FOR INLAND LOCALES WEST OF SAW-IMT LINE. ONSHORE FLOW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM MNM-ESC-P75/ISQ (AIDED BY LAND-LAKE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL) KEEPING LAKESIDE TEMPS NR 40. EVEN REMAINING SUPERIOR LAKESIDE LOCALES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE WEAK LAKE BREEZE AS LAND-LAKE DELTA T'S APPROACH 10C AND H95 15-20KT WINDSPEEDS IMPLYING LAKEBREEZE MAY EXTEND INLAND 1-3SM. WILL FRESHEN WORDING TO REFLECT LATEST FOG/CLDS TRENDS AND TWEAK TEMPS UP A BIT FOR SOME CENTRAL LOCALS. .MQT...NONE. WOLF mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1045 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2000 WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO DROP THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...SIGNIFICANT BREAKS HAVE OPENED UP IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES OF FORECAST AREA AND UPSTREAM ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LATEST RUC AND 12Z ETA SUGGEST A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT 950-850 MB...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE LOOPS. 850 MB TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN LOW UPSTREAM PER 12Z ANALYSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE IN THE 285-295K LAYER...SO ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...WILL STILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY COVER FORECAST (PARTLY SUNNY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY) FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE...WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. FINALLY...SURFACE GRADIENT FAVORS SOME ONSHORE COMPONENT OF FLOW ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WILL INDICATE COOLER NEAR LAKE (AROUND 40/LOWER 40S) IN COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MICHIGAN (AND FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY ALONG LAKE HURON). ALONG THE REST OF LAKE HURON...950 MB WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TOO STRONG FROM SOUTHWEST TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE FLOW. .APX...NONE. ROWLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 955 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2000 HIGH AND MID LVL CLDS SPILLING OVR RIDGE BUT DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING CWFA. RIDGE TO AMPLIFY FURTHER THIS AFTN AND SHOULD KEEP CLDS FROM THNCKN. MAINLY HIGH THIN VARIETY EXPECTED SO A MS SKY LOOKS GOOD. THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT SHALLOW COOL POOL AT SFC AND NE WNDS SHOULD KEEP TEMP AROUND 60 FOR TODAY. NO CHANGES PLANNED. CWF...PRIMARILY N TO NE WNDS ALONG THE COAST NEAR 10 KTS AND UP TO 18 KTS AT OFFSHORE BUOYS. RUC SUPPORTS WNDS 15 KTS THRU THE AFTN... SO WILL LEAVE CRNT FCST NE 15 KTS AS IS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT LOOK FINE AS WELL. .ILM...NONE. JFP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 925 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2000 MOISTURE LAYER BETWEEN 800-600 MB COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN CAROLINAS. RUC AND META SHOW LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MOUNTAINS. LIFT APPEARS ASSOCIATED WITH UNSTABLE MOIST LAYER RIDING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THAT...WILL KEEP LOW POP IN HIGH COUNTRY AND ADD CLOUD COVER TO MOST PIEDMONT ZONES. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP SURVIVING TRIP THROUGH VERY DRY AIR IN CAROLINAS. REDUCED INSOLATION WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER AND WILL LOWER ACCORDINGLY. DELGADO .GSP...NONE. sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1015 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2000 IMMEDIATE FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING DEALS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE RECORDS. LOOKING AT NEW ETA/NGM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HIGHS MIGHT BE A TAD OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SCENTRAL WHERE WE HAVE "RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S". HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUC SFC TEMP FORECAST VERIFIES THE CURRENT FORECAST. NEW ETA/NGM ALSO POINT TO INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SFC LOW NOW MOVING INTO SWRN NEB. THE CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWEST LAYERS WOULD POINT TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER FORECAST. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE FOG OVER FAR NERN COUNTIES AND BIG STONE/TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MN. FOG IS NOW BEGINNING TO LIFT. WILL LEAVE CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE RIDE FOR NOW...AND UPDATE AROUND 18Z FOR FOG AND WILL SEE HOW WELL TEMPS ARE RISING AT THAT TIME. .ABR...NONE. HINTZ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 305 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2000 UPPER VORT PIVOTING EAST AROUND THE RIDGE THIS MORNING. REGIONAL 88D IMAGES SHOWED SHOWERS TO OUR WEST ACROSS KENTUCKY...OHIO AND INDIANA. GENERAL MOVEMENT OF RETURNS WERE SE. SFC OBS REPORTED SOME RAIN REACHING THE GROUND. THE EVENING RUC AND MESOETA IDENTIFIED THE VORT MAX FAIRLY WELL. COLD TROF WAS ALSO DISPLAYED ON 00Z 5H ANALYSIS. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ETA CONTINUES THE IDEA OF GENERATING PCPN IN WESTERN PORTION OF RNK CWA. OUR EVENING 00Z RNK SOUNDING WAS QUITE DRY WITH PWAT AROUND 0.2 INCHES...THUS SUPPORTING THE BELIEVE THAT PCPN WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO FA. DUE TO THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AT THIS TIME...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SCT POPS TO WESTERN GROUP TODAY. WITH MSAS SHOWING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING MAY NEED TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN...OR IS IT DRIZZLE THIS AM ? FOR THE REST OF FA TODAY...RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH RISING THICKNESSES. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. THIS MORNING CANADIAN AND AVN SUPPORT THE CHC OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY IN CURRENT EXTENDED PACKAGE. THE POSITION OF HIGH/RETURN FLOW HINTS AT A WEDGE SETTING UP. ZONES WILL ARRIVE AROUND 335 AM. HAVE A GOOD DAY. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. NC...NONE. KK va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1107 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2000 SKY COVER CHGS PRIMARY CONCERN FOR MRNG UPDATE. 16Z SFC ANLYS PLACES SLOW MOVG FNTL SYS THRU CNTRL NE WITH LOW LVL MSTR STREAMING NWD. DWPNTS ALREADY INTO MID 50S OVR EXTRM SWRN IA. LOW CLDS ALSO MAKING RAPID MOVMT NWD WITH ST TO KADU-KDSM-KOTM LN. 925MB PROFILER INDCS LOW LVL FLOW OF 35-40KTS FM ERN KS INTO NRN MO. CLDS OF VARIOUS HGHTS SHOULD OVERSPREAD RMNDR OF FA THIS AFTN SO WENT MSTLY CLDY OR BCMG MSTLY CLDY. SUN AND MIXING WILL NOT BE MUCH HELP FOR TEMPS TDA. WL LIKELY KEEP DECENT INVERSION IN PLACE SO READINGS SHOULD NOT SKY ROCKET. HWVR LOW LVL MSTR ADVCTN SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO RAISE TEMPS ARND 10 DEGREES SO HAD TO UP HIGHS A BIT IN SOME ZNS. CANNOT REALLY FIND MUCH FORCING FOR LATE AFTN SHWRS PER 12Z RUC OR LOOK AT CURRENT WX...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSIFY PULLING A LOW 30 POP SO LEFT IN SRN SXNS. .DSM...NONE SMALL ia