EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 345 AM PST SAT FEB 19 2000 OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA MOST OF TODAY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. AN STORM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET UNTIL REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES IN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES STRONG ACROSS SW CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT ABOUT -10 MB BETWEEN SAN DIEGO AND ST. GEORGE UTAH BUT PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND -6 MB BY 18Z PER RUC MODEL. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOMING MORE SE AS DAY WEARS ON. SO EARLIER FCST OF DROPPING WIND ADVISORIES/WARNING AT 17Z STILL SUPPORTED. HAVE DISCARDED ETA MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST WITH MOVING LOW ONSHORE/MOISTENING LOW LAYERS. AVN MODEL PREFERRED THOUGH NGM VERY SIMILAR IN SOLUTION. SOUNDINGS BOTH OBSERVED AT 19/00Z AND PROGGED BY MODELS THROUGH 20/06Z KEEP AIR MASS BELOW 9000 FT DRY AND SHOW ABOUT 4-5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMING. DROPPED MENTION OF PCPN AND BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP TODAY...CLOSE TO FWC NUMBERS. MIST/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER SAN GABRIEL/SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON IF CLOUD BASE LOWERS FROM UPSLOPE AFFECTS AS MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PERPENDICULAR TO RIDGE ORIENTATION. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES DROP ABOUT 60 METERS TONIGHT/SUNDAY ALONG WITH RAPID MOISTENING IN THE LOW/MID LAYERS AS FLOW VEERS TO SW. EARLIER QPF GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWED NEAR 5 INCHES FOR COASTAL SLOPES. VERIFICATION WITH LAST EVENT SHOWED IT WAS ONLY A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AND LEAN MORE TOWARDS OROG/COMBINED NUMBERS VERSUS ORGG-NOGAP AS BASELINE. EARLIER COORDINATION CALL WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AGREED IT WAS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT APPERAS TO BE SHAPING UP INTO THAT. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLD AIR POCKET MOVES INLAND AND REINFORCING COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NW ARRIVES...OPENING LOW UP INTO NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES DECREASE 100 METERS/24 HOURS BY 12Z MONDAY WHICH TRANSLATES INTO SNOW LEVEL DROPPING TO AROUND 4500 FEET. ALSO RISK OF TSTMS AS AIR MASS DESTABLIZES MON AFTN AS VALLEY FLOORS HEAT UP. IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...ALL THE US AND EUROPEAN MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. DIDN'T GET A CHANCE TO LOOK AT THE CANADIAN OR ENSEMBLE CHARTS TO SEE WHAT SUPPORT THEY GAVE TO OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS OF LONG WAVE ADJUSTMENTS. FOR NOW IT IDEA OF REDEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST BY WEDNESDAY APPEARS VALID DUE TO PHASING OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WITH THE QUASI-PERMANENT TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR 125W. SO ONLY TEMPORARY AND DIRTY RIDGE FOR MON NIGHT/ TUE ACROSS SW CALIFORNIA. SAN 047 .SAN...WIND ADVISORIES CAZ048-049-058 UNTIL 900 AM PST HIGH WIND WARNING CAZ057 UNTIL 900 AM PST MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW CAZ042-043-PZZ750 UNTIL 10 AM PST BALFOUR ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 855 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2000 CURRENTLY... SURFACE WINDS AT KEY WEST HAVE BACKED TO ENE THE PAST HOUR. OTHER LAND OBSERVING SITES ARE NOW EAST. ALL HAVE SPEEDS AT 5 KNOTS. THE C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF ARE REPORTING DROPPING WIND SPEEDS AS EXPECTED...WITH 5-7 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT 8 PM. THE WESTERN-MOST SITES HAVE GONE NE (SAND KEY AND DRY TORTUGAS) WHILE THE MID AND UPPER KEYS ARE STILL E TO ESE. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME THIN CIRRUS STREAKING OVERHEAD. A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU AT 5-6 THSD FT RESULTING FROM SPREADING OUT OF AFTERNOON CU OVER THE MAINLAND IS DRIFTING OFF THE SW PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES ARE 73/74 AT KEYS SITES WITH DEWPOINTS AT 69. FIRST PERIOD FORECASTS... THE 1030 PM COASTAL MARINE FORECAST WILL CONTAIN NO WORDING CHANGES FROM THE 430 PM ISSUANCE. LATEST WIND TRENDS FROM C-MAN AND LAND SITES ARE SHOWING THE EXPECTED SLACKENING IN SPEEDS AND SOME DEGREE OF BACKING IN DIRECTION. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS WEAK HIGH CENTER OVER SE GULF OF MEXICO POKING TOWARD THE KEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF WIND BECOMING NE TO E 5 TO 10 KT LOOKS FINE AT THIS POINT. IF THE STRATOCU TO THE NORTH DOES NOT APPEAR TO SPREAD OUT TOWARD THE KEYS DURING THE NEXT HOUR AND NO OTHER CLOUDS SHOW UP IN THE AREA... THEN I MAY UPDATE THE PUBLIC ZONES TO CONFIRM THE SKY COVER TRANSITIONAL WORDING AND REMOVE THE "EARLY" TIME REFERENCE. .EYW...NONE. CLB fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 927 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2000 CURRENTLY...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WELL DEFINED IN CLOUD FIELDS FROM STUART TO OKEECHOBEE. EXTENSIVE STRATUS WAS ADVECTING EASTWARD OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE HAS INCREASED TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH. THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE ATLANTIC IN CONFLUENT ZONE NORTH OF RIDGE AXIS. FORECAST...CUMULUS SHOULD SHOW MORE VERTICAL GROWTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEPER MOIST LAYER AND WEAKENED CAP. THE LACK OF MUCH LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES. MARINE...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT IS MOST EVIDENT NORTH OF OUR WATERS. RUC/MESO ETA MODELS KEEP RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED GRADIENT REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. LATEST BUOY WINDS/SEAS WERE AT THE LOW END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST SO PROBABLY WILL LOWER SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN LEG. .MLB...NONE. LASCODY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1105 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2000 SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE LGT SN CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD/TEMP TRENDS. AT THE SURFACE AT 03Z A WK CD FRNT...NOW ESSENTIALLY JUST A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ORIENTED FM A LOW PRESSURE OVR JAMES BAY DOWN BTWEEN DLH AND ASX...THEN SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IA. UPSTAIRS...WV AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING TWO WK SHRTWVS OVR SASKATCHAWAN AND MANITOBA ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF ERN CONUS H5 TROF WHILE WAY UPSTREAM SHRTWVS ARE BLASTING ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND HEADING EAST TOWARD SO CAL RESPECTIVELY...BOTH WHICH WL HELP IN BRINGING MILD TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK. BACK TO TONIGHTS WEATHER PICTURE...SHRTWVS SLIDING IN FROM CANADA ARE NOT WELL DEFINED AND GENERALLY AREN'T PRODUCING MUCH WX AT THE SFC. BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF H3 JET STREAK OVR NRN MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO...IT IS HERE THAT SFC OBS SHOW -SN WITH VSBY BLO 3SM IN PLACES. ALONG THE FRONT JUST A FEW OBS THIS EVG SHOWING 10-15SM AND FLURRIES...THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH 18Z ETA WHICH DID PROJ AN AREA OF H8-H5 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE OVR SRN MANITOBA INTO NRN MN...BUT ALSO PREDICTED THIS AREA WASHING OUT AS IT MOVES TOWARD UPR MI AFT 06Z. DUE TO THIS FRACTURED FORCING...VRY MARGINAL DLT T/S OF 12C TO 14C BY 09Z-12Z WITH WEAK CAA PATTERN PER LATEST ETA...HAVE TAKEN OUT POPS IN WRLY/NWRLY FAVORED LES AREAS AND JUST WENT WITH FLURRIES ACROSS UPR MI. BY ALL INDICATIONS LOW CLOUDS WL THICKEN ACROSS THE YOOP THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH LATEST RUC AND 18Z ETA POINTING TO LK CLOUDS FORMING AFTER 06Z...WITH THE REST OF UPR MI AFFECTED BY SHRTWVS MENTIONED AT THE TOP ADVECTING CLOUDS FM THE WEST (ALREADY IN IWD). TEMPS WL ONCE AGAIN BE A REAL CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL U.P. WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE SENT TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR ZERO HERE AT THE OFFICE THIS EVG...LOW CLOUDS WL HELP BOOST TEMPS BACK UP FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AND HAVE WORDED ZONES ACCORDINGLY. .MQT...NONE. JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1055 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2000 APX 88D DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AFFECTING NORTHWEST LOWER AND PARTS OF EAST UPPER MICHIGAN. THE EAST UPPER MICHIGAN AND STRAITS AREA SNOWFALL IS DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN SNOWFALL IS BEING ENHANCED BY OVER LAKE INSTABILITY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH 850 TEMPERATURES AROUND -11C. THE AVERAGE WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB... WILL BE FROM THE WEST WITH 1000/850 MB MOISTURE CURRENTLY AROUND 70 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING EAST UPPER MICHIGAN STAYING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER LEVELS...BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB...DRYING TO UNDER 60 PERCENT FOR THE WESTERN LAKES. THE LATEST VISIBLE STLT SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER EAST WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL MENTION SOME SUN AND FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EXTREME NORTHWEST LOWER AND STRAITS AREA WILL MENTION SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMBINES WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE STRAITS. .APX...NONE. SWR mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1040 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2000 BACK EDGE OF EARLY MORNING ST/FLURRIES HAS PUSHED INTO SECOND TIER OF WI CWA ZONES...JUST WEST OF RPD..EAU LN. WL UPDATE THIS AREA SHORTLY. WDL WIND PROFILER /UA ANALYSIS SHOWED 5H TROUGH LN HAS SHIFTED EWD THRU WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT LOW LEVEL TROUGH HANGING BACK. SFC CLD FNT BEGINNING TO PUSH THRU RED RVR VLY TO JUST WEST OF ABR. MINIMAL CLDS POST FRONTAL BUT SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE THAT SHOWED UP ON 12Z ABR SOUNDING IS INTERACTING WITH WK LOW LVL CONV TO PRODUCE SECOND ST DECK ALG WITH SOME FLURRIES WHICH IS BEGNG TO SPREAD INTO NWRN CWA. LATEST RUC AND NEW ETA GUIDANCE CARRIES INCR LOW LEVEL RH/CONV THRU ABT NRN HALF OF AREA THRU AFTERNOON WITH DECR TREND IN WEST THIS AFTN AND EAST THIS EVE. WL UPDATE ZONES TO REFLECT MORE CLDS FOR A TIME IN NORTH ALG WITH FLURRY POTENTIAL. MORE SUN IN SOUTH. AFTN TEMPS IN BALLPARK WITH MINIMAL REVISIONS NEEDED. .MSP...NONE KAVINSKY mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 920 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2000 WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW LAKE WIND ADV CRITERIA...SO IT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. FRONT PUSHING THRU CST NOW. TEMPS ARE FALLING IN LINE WITH LTST RUC PROJ...AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN 23Z LAMP... INDICATING THAT CURRENT MIN TEMP FCST STILL LOOKS OK. A FEW HI LVL CLDS STREAMING ACRS...BUT MSTLY CLR SHOULD STILL SUFFICE. .CAE...NONE. sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 945 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2000 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS VERY SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME PROGRESS IS NOTED AROUND THE EDGES OF THE DECAYED WEDGE LAYER. MAY HAVE TO RETAIN SOME BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL ASSESS UP TO ISSUANCE TIME. SLOW PROGRESS OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE FWC NUMBERS...AS PRESENTLY FORECAST. MTN TEMPS WILL REACH HIGHS EARLY THIS AFTN AND THEN SLOWLY FALL WITH COLD ADVECTION AFTER 18Z. CURRENT TEMP RANGES LOOK VERY REASONABLE. WINDS REMAIN SOMETHING OF A CONCERN TODAY AS LATEST RUC AGREES WITH THE ETA IN BRINGING 20 TO 30 KT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KT AT GSP ALREADY THIS MORNING...MIXING SHOULD TAKE THE ENTIRE AREA TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. .GSP...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES TODAY ALL ZONES. HG sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 955 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2000 AT 0331Z 11U-3.9U SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS BEGINING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ZONES AND APPROACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ZONES. LATEST RUC AND ETA MODELS SHOW 850 MOISTURE IN THIS AREA MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT. .LBB...NONE. JV/08 tx SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 804 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2000 UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF-PAC TROUGH NEARING SFO AND FLOW COVERGING OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY LEADING MARKS THE STAGE FOR A NEAR NORMAL NIGHT IN SETX. NORTHEAST SFC FLOW TO WEAKEN AS 1029 MB SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND WEAKENS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO RELAX...WILL DROP SCA TONIGHT OVER THE DISTANT COASTAL WATERS. RUC INDICATES A THE AC IN WESTERN ZONES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THORUGH 12Z...CI BAND SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN FA TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS... CURRENT PACKAGE HAS GREAT LOOKING FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. .HGX...NONE PRELIMS... CLL...040/067 046/071 057 000 IAH...042/067 044/071 058 000 GLS...050/064 055/069 061 000 45/40/TOM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 842 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2000 S/WV SHOWG UP NICELY ON IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOP...MOVG THRU WRN NY WITH -SN SHOWG UP ON A FEW OBS LAST FEW HOURS OUT THERE. 18Z MESOETA AND LATEST RUC DEPICT CENTER OF VORT MAX A LTL TOO FAR S DOWN IN PA. EXTRAPOLATION OF S/WV PUTS IT INTO CWA LATER TNGT...SO MADE CHGS TO FCST. WENT WTH INCRSG CLDS EVERYWHERE...AND CHC FLURRIES EVERYWHERE BUT ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ZN GROUP. TRIED TO TIME IT TO AFTER MIDNIGHT ON VT SIDE. ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD A LTL BASED ON MORE CLD CVR. SLK OBS AVBL AGAIN...AND CLD CVR THERE HOLDING TEMPS IN MID 20S. AT MSS...CLR SKIES HAVE LET TEMP PLUMMET TO 3 ABOVE LAST HR...SO KEPT COLDER LOWS THERE. MSS WL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT EARLY...THEN STEADY OR INCRS SLGTLY AS CLDS MOV IN. WORK ZONES OUT. .BTV...NONE HANSON vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 150 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2000 SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS: FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...PCP SUN NITE/MON AVN/ETA/RUC BEST H5 INIT OF DIFF FEATURES. CLRG OF LOW CLDS WL BE CONICIDENT WITH PSG OF H5 VORT CTR. SOME BRKS EVIDENT IN NW CORNER OF CWA ATTM. CLDS MAY STAY ACRS ERN ZONES THRU EVENING HR WHICH...WL AFFECT TEMPS. ENUF RESID MOISTURE ARND TO ALLOW RAD FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. RUC AND MM5 SHOW WNDS DECRSG BLO 7KT THRESHOLD BY 03Z WHEREAS...ETA/AVN/NGM KEEP WIND THRU 12Z. WL SPLIT THE DIFF AND MENTION LATE EVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. DENSER FOG ACRS WRN ZONES WHERE SKIES WL BE MSTLY CLR...ONLY LGT FOG FOR THE EAST. DONT XPCT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION ACRS WRN ZONES MON NITE DUE TO INCRSD WND SPDS. ERN ZONES MAY SEE A LTL FOG MON NITE AS WNDS WL BE A LTL LIGHTER AND CLDS WL BE SLOWER TO REACH THIS AREA. HOWLING 45-50KT LLJ BRINGS A SLUG OF LO LVL MOISTURE TO CWA WRN DOOR BY 06Z MON ACCORDING TO ETA. NGM AND AVN AND 00Z MM5 A LTL SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND STRENGTH OF LLJ. ALL SHORT TERM MODELS QN AND QS FIELDS SHOWING WK CONV BY 12Z MON LIKELY DUE TO STG ISN LIFT AND MID LVL DIFF/DIV. NO POPS GOING IN CURRENT FCST FOR SUN NITE OR MONDAY. WL WAIT FOR THE LASTEST RUNS OF MESO MODELS B4 ENTERING PCP INTO FCST. WNDS MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO QUICKLY TONIGHT. CURRENT FCST MINS FOR TONIGHT LK GOOD. LO LVL WAA SHULD ALLOW ALL AREAS TO WARM NICELY TMRW. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM OVR WRN ZONES OVERNIGHT LIKELY WL BURN OFF WITH PSG OF H8 RDG AXIS. MAY GO A LTL CLOSER TO COOLER FWC NUMBER TO ACCT FOR REDUCTION IN HTG DUE FOG. IF ETA IS BLVD...WARMER FAN NUMBERS FOR MON NITE LK GOOD. BREEZY AND WARM ON TUES... EXTENDED CONCERNS: TIMING OF -SHRA/-TSRA ONSET ALL LNG RNG MODELS POINTING TWD SOME SIG WX FOR CWA TUES NITE AND WED. ITS BEEN AN OKLA WINTER...CULD BE AN OKLA SPRING! SFC LOW FCST TO DEVELOP OVR WRN KS TUE NITE AND MV TO ARND ICT BY 12Z WED. MRF SFC LO PSN IN NC KS 12Z WED LKS A LTL ODD GIVEN H5 LO PROGGD TO BE OVR SC KS... UKMET AND EUROPEAN PSNS AT SFC AND H5 LK A LTL MORE REASONABLE. IF THEIR SCENARIO VERIFIES... LO LVL HELICITY WL ABOUND. HOWEVER...LAYER Q-VECTOR FIELDS AND ECMWF THERMAL WND FIELDS BOTH SUGGEST BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WL BE NORTH AND WEST OF CWA ACRS SRN NE EARLY ON. PBLY WL SEE TWO AREAS OF STORMS...ONE ALNG AND NORTH OF WARM FNT ACRS SRN NE AND SRN IA AND THE OTHER ALNG INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTED UNDER DRY SLOT ACRS WRN MO. WED AFTN AND EVE CULD BE FAIRLY INTERESTING. THE WHOLE SYSTEM MVS EAST OF FA BY 12Z THU... THU LKS DRY ACRS ENTIRE CWA. NCEP ENSEMBLES HAVE ANOTHER WK SYSTEM MVG THRU ON FRI. IN BTWN SYSTEMS ON SAT. .EAX...NONE SMF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 450 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2000 ***ACTIVITY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO HAS SHOWN MARKED ENHANCEMENT LAST 1/2 HOUR PER KTYX RDR. WILL INCREASE ACCUMS FOR NRN ONEIDA COUNTY TDA AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. REST OF ZONES UNCHANGED*** LOW CLDS HANGING TUFF ACRS THE RGN. SOME LGT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACRS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NY/PA ASSCD WITH A S/WV...NICE 850 THERMAL TROF WITH THIS FEATURE. RUC/ETA EVEN SHOWING SOME MSRBL PCPN ACRS NY. LATER TDA A WEAK SFC TROF WILL PUSH SE INTO THE FA. PROFILES SHOW INCRSNG INSTAB LATER THIS AFTN AS FLOW BCMS MORE NWLY. DUE TO CRNT ACTIVITY WON'T TIME THE PCPN ACRS MOST OF THE RGN. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW AND DO NOT APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE CRNT ACTIVITY. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS NRN SXNS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH ACCUMS UNDER AN INCH. GIVEN THE WRLY FLOW THRU MIDDAY WE COULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SPCLY ACRS ONEIDA CNTY. ELSEWHERE ONLY CHC POPS OR JUST FLURRIES (NE PA). TNGT WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW DVLPS BEHIND THE WEAK SFC TROF. SOME DIFFS BETWEEN THE ETA/NGM PROFILES CONNERNING THE HGT OF THE LOW LVL INVERSION BUT BOTH SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LVL MSTR. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FINGER LAKES INTO WRN MOHAWK VLY FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND PSBL ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES. SCT POPS OR FLURRIES ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS NRN ZONES ON MONDAY MRNG. MDLS SHOW LOW LVL MSTR SLOWLY PULLING OUT. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE? ATTM BEST CHCS SEEM TO BE ACRS NE PA. WILL INDICATE MRNG CLDS GIVING WAY TO SOME SS DURING THE AFTN MOST SXNS. GUIDANCE TEMPS APPEAR RSNBL. .BGM...NONE. BRADY ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 215 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2000 LOW CLDS HANGING TUFF ACRS THE RGN. SOME LGT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACRS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NY/PA ASSCD WITH A S/WV...NICE 850 THERMAL TROF WITH THIS FEATURE. RUC/ETA EVEN SHOWING SOME MSRBL PCPN ACRS NY. LATER TDA A WEAK SFC TROF WILL PUSH SE INTO THE FA. PROFILES SHOW INCRSNG INSTAB LATER THIS AFTN AS FLOW BCMS MORE NWLY. DUE TO CRNT ACTIVITY WON'T TIME THE PCPN ACRS MOST OF THE RGN. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW AND DO NOT APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE CRNT ACTIVITY. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS NRN SXNS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH ACCUMS UNDER AN INCH. GIVEN THE WRLY FLOW THRU MIDDAY WE COULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SPCLY ACRS ONEIDA CNTY. ELSEWHERE ONLY CHC POPS OR JUST FLURRIES (NE PA). TNGT WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW DVLPS BEHIND THE WEAK SFC TROF. SOME DIFFS BETWEEN THE ETA/NGM PROFILES CONNERNING THE HGT OF THE LOW LVL INVERSION BUT BOTH SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LVL MSTR. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FINGER LAKES INTO WRN MOHAWK VLY FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND PSBL ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES. SCT POPS OR FLURRIES ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS NRN ZONES ON MONDAY MRNG. MDLS SHOW LOW LVL MSTR SLOWLY PULLING OUT. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE? ATTM BEST CHCS SEEM TO BE ACRS NE PA. WILL INDICATE MRNG CLDS GIVING WAY TO SOME SS DURING THE AFTN MOST SXNS. GUIDANCE TEMPS APPEAR RSNBL. .BGM...NONE. BRADY ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 230 AM MST SUN FEB 20 2000 ANOTHER QUIET MRNG WITH EXCEPTN OF STG WNDS THRU WND CORRIDOR. MBW PROFILER SHOWS GENTLE ZEPHYR OF 50KTS AT 7H...ABT 20KTS HIR THAN ANY MDLS HV...EVEN 08Z RUC. SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CI ADVANCING THRU GRT BASIN ALG WITH LRG SCL RDG AXIS. AXIS/CI SHLD BE TO RWL AREA BY 18Z AND WY/NEB BDR BY 00Z. MDLS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH S/W TROF MOVG THRU CWA LT TNGT/ERLY SUN. BOTH ETA/NGM HV VORT CNTR JUST E LAR RNG ...NR KEAN...AT 36HRS. AVN HAS CNTRS NR KCOD & KLIC WITH SPLIT THIS CWA. 7H FLO INCRSS TO 40-45KTS FM RWL-LAR RNG IN 30-36HR TIMEFRAME ACCORDG TO MDLS. CONSIDERG HOW MUCH THEY ARE UNDERDOING SPDS THIS MRNG MAY WIND UP WITH NR HI WNDS MTNS LT TNGT. WL LET DAY SHIFT SEE IF APPRS CURRNT TREND WL CONT. ETA BGNS MOVG QPF ACRS WY/CO S OF RWL BY 36HRS...OTR MDLS A LTL SLOER. SUN...RDG WL REBUILD WWD ABIT THRU ERN PLNS WY AS IMPRESSIVE TROF MOVS ONTO W CST. ETA LOOKS A HAIR SLOER WITH TROF. AVN HAS CLOSED 5H LO NW NV AT 48HRS WITH 80-100KT 3H JET N/S THRU CA. ALMST AS STG JET WL EXTEND FM SW CO TO SE WY OR NEB PANHANDL AT THAT TIME. 94O LOOKS REASNBL BRINGG RISK THUNDER INTO SW WY SUN P.M. AS AMS BCMS WKLY UNSTBL. .CYS... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. COX wy AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 545 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2000 WILL BE UPDATING MY SOUTHWEST COUNTIES TO INCLUDE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES COVERING MY SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BY 8 AM AND THEN NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. THUS...SNOW BANDS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER ALLEGAN...VAN BUREN AND KALAMAZOO COUNTIES. RUC MODEL IS DRY...BUT SHOWS PERSISTANT SURFACE DIVERGENCE ACROSS THESE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. MESO ETA IS SIMILAR. INVERSION HEIGHT REMAIN AROUND 4500 FT...SO AM EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. ALLEGAN HAD A DUSTING AS OF 540 AM. THUS WILL BE ADDING SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY AND INCH OF ACCUMULATION...THROUGH THIS MORNING. .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1025 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2000 LK PLUME AS FAR E AS ABT 10SW KDDH PER KENX RADAR. 14Z SFC ANLYS INDICATES WK CDFNT APCHG CYSB AND SE LK SUPERIOR. 12Z SOUNDING AT KALY SHOWS ABT 2 THSD FT DP MOIST LYR TO SUPPORT BKN SC/CU. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS CONT WITH ADDITIONAL LOW LVL MSTR. LATEST RUC NOTES NVA BLDG INTO SE NY OVER NEXT FEW HRS...WL LEAN LTL MORE TWD SUNSHINE THERE...OTHER ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS ON ERYR PACKAGE. MCKINLEY/HWJIV .ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE. ny COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 945 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2000 CLOUDS THINNING WITH SOME VERY LARGE BREAK NOWS STARTING TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL CWFA. KCRP SOUNDING AND LATEST RUC ISENT DATA INDICATING THAT THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE AN AREA OF SEA FOG OFF COAST AROUND CRP BAY AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY FOR A RUN INLAND. TEMPS WILL BE A PROBLEM WITH THE VARIABLE CLOUDS AROUND. SOME READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IF THEY GET 1 OR 2 HOURS OF GOOD SUNSHINE. MARINE...NO FLAGS AS THINGS SMOOTH OUT BY THE END OF DAY. .CRP...NONE. 78 tx WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 120 PM MST SUN FEB 20 2000 PROGRESSIVE FLOW PUTS THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN UNDER THE GUN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MOIST AND DEEPER AVN IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE AND GOES SOUNDER CONFIRMATION. THANKS FOR INPUT FROM ABQ/PUB/SLC/. SYSTEM 1...THAT WAS WOUND UP TIGHT AND BEAUTIFUL IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC LAST WEDNESDAY...CONTINUES TO OPEN AND WEAKEN AS IT COMES ON SHORE. 17Z RUC PRODUCES NO PRECIP WEST OF NEVADA THRU 03Z. 18Z GOES SOUNDER SHOWS UNSTABLE AIR (-21C 500TEMPS/<0 LI) HAVE SPREAD INTO 4- CORNERS ALONG WITH AN 80KT JET. WEAK FRONT TO BRUSH THE SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIP...LESS THAN ADVISORY AMOUNTS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SNOW ACCUMULATION LEVEL AROUND 8000FT. FOR NORTHERN ZONES WILL DROP POPS...BUT KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN AS FAR NORTH AS THE FLAT TOPS (COZ13) WHERE OROGRAPHICS COULD WRING OUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE THIS WEAK FIRST SYSTEM SERVES TO ADVECT MOISTURE AHEAD OF SYSTEM 2. SYSTEM 2 SPLITS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY INTO NM. THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TO INITIALLY GET THE MOST PRECIP IN SW FLOW AND NOSE OF 90KT JET. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH GOOD INSTABILITY SHOWERS THRU THE AFTERNOON. TROF PASSAGE BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL WINDS VEERING TO THE NW. STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND AN IMPULSE DROPPING INTO THE LOW FROM THE NORTH WOULD TURN ON THE SNOW MACHINE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. NORTH-CENTRAL MTN SHOWERS TO END EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. SNOW LEVEL STARTING AT 8000 AND LOWERING TO AROUND 7000FT. EVEN WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...MTN SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY TO BE MET AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT AND LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS CONSIDER A WATCH. EXTENDED: PROGRESSION CONTINUES WITH NEXT SYSTEM ADVERTISED FOR THURSDAY (CANADIAN) OR FRIDAY (MRF...NOGAPS...EC). SPLITTING FLOW IS AGAIN ADVERTISED WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY AGAIN SOUTH. BUT WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING AND INTENSITY...WILL DO A BAROCLINIC BROADBRUSH PERHAPS WITH A SLIGHT EMPHASIS SOUTH. 99/RAMEY .GJT...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1155 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2000 AREA SURFACE REPORTS AND 88D DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES REMAINING OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND EAST UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE LATEST RUC RUN STILL SHOWING 700/500 MB DPVA AFFECTING NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C TO -13C. 1000/850 MB AVERAGE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE 280/290 DEGREES WITH 1000/850 MB MOISTURE DRYING FROM 70 PERCENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO 40 PERCENT BY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SNOW BELT THIS AFTERNOON BUT MENTION DIMINISHING. FOR NORTHEAST LOWER WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT AND 500 MB VORT MAX MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FOR EAST UPPER WILL MENTION DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. .APX...NONE. SWR mi