WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 925 PM MST SUN FEB 13 2000 EVENING REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES BELOW 600MB HAVE NOT WARMED AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED YESTERDAY. GJT 700MB TEMP STILL AT -8C. NEW MODELS SHOW NO SURPRISES...WITH FAST WARM ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. SATELLITE CONFIRMS FAST AND MOIST... I AM SKEPTICAL OF MUCH WARM ADVECTION. EVENING REPORTS AROUND THE REGION: SAN JUAN MTN ROAD CREWS REPORT 1 INCH/HOUR AND 4 INCHES TODAY AT RICO (Z19)...LIGHT WINDS/SNOW ON GRAND MESA (Z09)...5 INCHES ACCUMULATION TODAY VICINITY STEAMBOAT WITH LOTS OF WIND (Z05). RADAR SHOWS 30KTS AT 11K MSL AND EXPECT EXPOSED RIDGES/PASSES WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. FROM SATELLITE AND RUC/MESO-ETA...SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE SOUTHERN MTNS...SO NO ADVISORY THERE LOOKS REASONABLE. NORTH...LESS ENHANCEMENT AND LIFTING JET FOR LOWERING POPS IN THE VALLEYS BUT THE MTNS CAN BE SO VERY EFFICIENT WITH ANY NORTH COMPONENT TO THE WEST FLOW. SO NO UPDATES NEEDED TO ZONES AND WILL REFRESH BUT NOT CHANGE HIGHLIGHTS...INCLUDING WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS. RAMEY .GJT...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR COZ004. SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR COZ005. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR COZ009-010-012. co NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO 350 AM MST SUNDAY FEBRUARY 13 2000 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: LOWER ELVTNS OF CWA SHOULD SEE APPRECIABLE DRYING NEXT 12-18 HRS WHILE MTNS AND HIGH FTHLS CONT TO RECIEVE DIMINISHING AMTS OF SNOWFALL..BUT INCREASING WNDS. MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE AND STRENGTHENING NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DRYING NOTED ABV. ATTM...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG (WITH VSBYS BLO A 1/4 MI IN AREAS) BLANKET MOST OF NERN CO PLAINS AND LOWER FTHLS. VRY LGT E-SELY SFC WNDS ON THE PLAINS KPG LOW LVL MOISTURE PUSHED UP INTO LOWER FTHLS WHERE SFC TROF NOW RESIDES. W OF SFC TROF...SFC WNDS AT FTHLS RAWS...LDAD AND NIWOT RIDGE OB SITES WERE GENERALLY W-NWLY AT 10-25KTS. PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWED NWLY FLOW UP TO 350 MBS...WITH 700-500 MB WNDS INCREASING PAST COUPLE OF HRS. RADAR ALSO SHOWED AN INCREASE IN SNOWFALL IN THE MTNS...PARTICULARLY ALG AND W OF THE CONT DVD. INCREASING SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY COINCIDING WITH PASSAGE OF WK MID-LVL SHRTWV AND MID-LVL CAA. MDLS SHOW THIS SUBTLE FEATURE...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING DARK AREA (SINKING/DRYING) IN ITS WAKE OVR XTRM NWRN CO/SWRN WY. DARK AREA WAS RACING SEWRD AT APXMTLY 45KTS. BASED ON THIS TIMING AND ON 06Z ETA/RUC AND SFM...SHOULD SEE A DROP OFF IN SNOWFALL IN THE MTNS BY LATE MRNG WITH ONSET OF WAA...BUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS...ESPLY ON RIDGES AND PASSES. STILL SEE ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN MTN ZNS BEFORE MIDDAY...ALG WITH AREAS OF BLWG AND DRFTG SNOW. BLOWING SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTN IN HIGH COUNTRY WHERE GUSTS TO 60 MPH PSBL ON RIDGES AND EXPOSED AREAS. ON THE PLAINS...SAME MDLS MENTIONED ABV SHOWED SFC TROF PUSHING OFF FTHLS ERLY THIS MRNG AND ACRS THE NERN PLNS THIS AFTN. SFC-700MB GRIDS SUGGEST GUSTY WLY (DOWNSLOPE) WNDS DVLPG IN LWR FTHLS AND ADJCNT PLAINS BY MIDDAY...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND MDT WARMING. DRYING NOT AS FAST FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS WHERE COLD... MOIST AIR WILL LKLY RETARD EWRD ADVANCE OF SFC TROF. MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS AND UPR 20S/LWR 30S TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN THE FAR NERN CTYS. MOS TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE...HWVR GUIDANCE UNABLE TO REFLECT WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS XPCTD ON PLAINS TODAY. BAKER LONG TERM DISCUSSION: APPEARS THE SAGA OF SNOW AND BLOW WILL CONT IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ACCORDING TO ALL MODELS. BRISK W-SW FLOW TO BE THE RULE THRU TUES XCP TODAY AND THEN ON WED AND THURS WHEN UPR RDG PUSHES IN AHEAD OF TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FRI. WATER VAPOR AND IR SAT PIX SHOW GOOD PLUME MSTR FROM SUBTROPICS ENTRAINED IN THIS FLOW. THE LOW/TROF OVER ERN PAC WILL KICK A NUMBER OF FAST MVG RIPPLES EWD ACRS THE ROCKIES DURING THE WEEK BUT NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME IN THIS PTRN. SINCE PLENTY OF MSTR AND ORGRPHC LIFT WILL BE AIDED BY DYNMCS AT TIMES FROM THE PASSING SHT WVS WILL DO A BROADBRUSH FCST WITH GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW IN MTNS EACH DAY THRU THURS. SNOW MODEL GIVES 1 TO 4 INCHES OMTNS TNGT AND MON HWVR WAA WILL HINDER ORGRPHC SNOW MACHINE AND WILL GO WITH LTL LESS ACCUM FOR TNGT. FOR PLAINS THE PTRN TO CHNG TNGT AS ALL MODELS SHOW LEE TROF AND DWNSLP FLOW DVLPG. THAT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET UNDER BRISK WLY FLOW ALF. THE DWNSLP FLOW SHUD CONT THRU WED BUT MRF INDCTS ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR INTO PLAINS THURS WHICH CUD PUSH CD FNT AND WEAK UPSLP FLOW INTO NERN CO THURS. FMR TEMPS AT DEN ABT 10 DEGS COOLER ON THURS THAN TUE AND WED WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIFT TO UPSLP PTRN. NOT SURE THIS CHANGE WILL BE STG ENUF TO GENERATE ANY PCPN. PRESENT ERN CO EFP IS DRY AND WILL LEAVE AS IS. IN MEANTIME TEMPS TO WARM FROM TODAYS READINGS SINCE COLD AIR SHUD BE SCOURED OUT BY DWNSLP FLOW TNGT AND TMW. DESPITE WAA AND DWNSLP FLOW I BELIEVE FAN AND FWC ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT HIGH TEMPS EXCEEDING 50 DEGREES TMW SINCE H7 TEMP PROGS GENLY SHOW TEMPS REACHING UPPER 40S BUT PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL HAMPER WARMING. GCF .DEN...NONE. co EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 845 PM EST SUN FEB 13 2000 AS JET MAXIMA PROPAGATES ACROSS N FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL IMPACT CWA. RISING DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LESSEN TEMP FALL OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE. MARINE...BUOYS HAVE SHOWN INCREASE OF SSE GRADIENT SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC2 CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASE OF WIND TO SCEC CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH LEG. CURRENT FORECAST INDICATED THIS...BUT WILL BEGIN WITH WIND 15 KNOTS AND RAISE SCEC N LEG FOR WIND. .MLB...NONE. DECKER/SPRATT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1010 AM EST SUN FEB 13 2000 BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE STRAITS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...WITH A FEW REMAINING PATCHES OF CU/SC MOVING NW TOWARD THE KEYS. SKIES OVER THE KEYS ARE GENERALLY SUNNY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S. WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ALONG THE LOWER KEYS...A BIT LOWER FURTHER UP THE KEYS. C-MAN WINDS ARE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT. VWP AND 12Z RAOB INDICATE WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 KT IN THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET. SHOULD SEE A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE KEYS TODAY AND SOME MOVING ACROSS FROM THE STRAITS...BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AS PER FORECAST. SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS MIXING PROGRESSES. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MORNING FORECAST TO CLEAN UP WORDING. AS AVN...ETA...AND LATEST RUC SHOW WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP "INCREASING" WORDING IN COASTAL FORECAST. NO CHANGES NEEDED. .EYW...NONE. JEB fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 930 AM CST SUN FEB 13 2000 CURRENT SFC MAP SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KTUL WITH WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF MY CWA FROM NEAR FSM AND HOT TO NORTH OF GREENWOOD MISS. SFC TROF EXTENDS JUST WEST OF A ADM...DFW...AUS LINE WITH DRY LINE FURTHER WEST OF THIS TROF. MORNING RAOBS SHOW STRONG CAP AT AROUND THE 800MB LEVEL WITH A WEAKER LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT ABOUT 950MB. CLOUDS ALREADY STARTING TO THIN SOMEWHAT TO MY WEST SO LOW LEVEL INVERSION NOT ANY CONCERN. THIS CAP AT 800MB MAY BE OUR SAVING GRACE AS WET BULB ZEROES NEAR 7K AND SRH VALUES NEAR 350 M2/S2. SPC REQUESTING 18Z RAOB SO THIS MAY BE THE TELLING TALE. CAP NOT QUITE AS STRONG AT KJAN THIS AM...HAVING SAID THIS AND PUTTING MY FAITH IN THE CAP...DISORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING ACROSS MY SOUTH WITH RATHER INTERESTING LOOKING CELL PULSING UP AND DOWN IN NORTHERN POLK COUNTY. TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST RUC AS WELL AS THE 06Z MESOETA...WILL LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR THIS AFTN BUT WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST. TEMPS LOOK OK SO NO CHANGES EXPECTED THERE. SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER SO HOPE TO GET THIS ACTIVITY...IF ANY AT ALL OUT OF HERE THIS EVENING. UPDATE WILL BE OUT BY 1100 AM. COORD WELCOME...13 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 834 PM EST SUN FEB 13 2000 PRECIP SHIELD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LOW IS PULLING OUT OF FAR SE LWR MI. WL UPDATE BY THE TOP OF THE HOUR TO REFLECT THIS. SCT -SHSN EXTEND AS FAR BACK AS GOSHEN...SO WL KEEP A MENTION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OF -SN FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI...BUT DRY AIR HAS INVADED AT LOW LEVELS UP THERE...SO VISBILITIES ARE ONLY IN 3-5 MILE RANGE...DESPITE DECENT RETURNS ON RADAR. THIS BAND IS SHOWING A STRONG WEAKENING TREND ON BOTH KGRR/KDTX RADARS. THAT ABOUT DOES IT. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM THRU THE NIGHT... KEEPING LAKE EFFECT CONCERNS MINIMAL. APPEARS THAT ALL MODELS ARE DRAMATICALLY UNDERPLAYING THE DRY AIR FILTERING IN AT MID LEVELS. EVEN THE MESOETA AND RUC LOOK TOO MOIST. WL TAKE A HATCHET TO PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK PRETTY GOOD...BUT WL LIKELY EDGE THEM DOWN A BIT IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH PTK AT 24 AND DTW/ARB AT 25. .DTX...NONE. ZOLTOWSKI mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 350 PM EST SUN FEB 13 2000 SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT 18Z...WHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH WAS ENTRENCHED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ARCTIC HIGH APPEARS TO BE WINNING THE BATTLE AS IT HOLDS THE APPROACHING SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. WAVE ALOFT OVER IOWA AIDING IN WAA SNOWS OVER MICHIGAN AS WARM AIR IS PULLED OVER THE COLD DOME. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TOMORROW EVENING AS RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. ALOFT...THE WEAK IOWA WAVE SHEARS OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS. FCST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND DEMISE OF THE WAA/SYSTEM SNOWS THIS EVENING...CLOUDS MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN CHANCES FOR PCPN AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES IN THE ZONAL FLOW ON TUES. TONIGHT...WAA SNOWS WINDING DOWN AS WE SPEAK AS UPPER WAVE SHEARS OUT. WILL MENTION SNOW TAPERING OFF IN AREAS THAT IT IS STILL ONGOING. TO THE NORTH WILL MENTION PARTIAL CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON NORTHERLY WINDS. NEXT CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE UPPER WAVE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MISSOURI SURFACE LOW AND IF THIS WILL SPREAD ANY OF ITS PCPN INTO THE GRR FCST AREA. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE RUC MODEL PCPN FIELDS BELIEVE IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL DOWN TOWARD JACKSON. WILL MENTION LIGHT SNOW LIKELY DOWN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE INCH WILL COME BOTH FROM THE LINGERING WAA SNOW AND SNOW FROM THE MISSOURI SYSTEM ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY AS IT TRAVERSES THE OHIO VALLEY. ON MONDAY...WILL MENTION SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FCST AREA WIDE...AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. FEEL THE ETA 850 TEMPS MAY BE A BIT AMBITIOUS (TOO COLD) GIVEN THE WAY IT INITIALIZED OVER NORTH DAKOTA. STILL THOUGH...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE STRATOCU (SCT-BKN) TOMORROW. FEEL A BECOMING P/C FCST IS THE WAY TO GO AS LOWER TROP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK WAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW PUSHES SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK OUR DIRECTION AS WAA BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WILL WORD THE MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST AS INCREASING CLOUDS AS AN ALTOCU DECK WILL LIKELY LOWER AND THICKEN. AS FOR TUESDAY IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AS WAA OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEST TO EAST MOVING WAVE. THE AVN INDICATES SNOW NORTH AND A MIX (RAIN/SNOW) POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH. WILL JUST CARRY CHANCE POPS (40 PCT) FOR NOW. WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM NGM/AVN GUIDANCE TEMPS AS THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. DUKESHERER EXTENDED FORECAST... FAST ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS MAKES TIMING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION DIFFICULT BUT GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF. WARM ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH WAVE SWINGING THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SNOW N AND SNOW/RAIN S THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TUE. WILL GO DRY FOR WED IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH APPARENTLY MARGINAL TEMPS/MOISTURE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WILL KEEP THU DRY DESPITE HIGHER POPS IN MRF GUIDANCE AS BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS S OF LOWER MI WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRI AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1100 AM EST SUN FEB 13 2000 HAVE ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NRN LWR MI. PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL RATES -- 1/2" TO 1" PER HOUR -- ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS SHOW DEFINITE...EAST-WEST BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW (REFLECTIVITY OVER 28 DBZ). OVER THE LAST HOUR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55 HAVE BEEN OBSERVING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW. THE BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW DO SHOW CSI CHARACTERISTICS... WHICH WOULDN'T BE REAL SURPRISING GIVEN THE STRONG N-S BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE STATE...700 MB FRONTOGENESIS...AND 300 MB DIVERGENCE MAXIMIZING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI. SLOPES OF THETA AND MOMENTUM SURFACES AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON ETA/RUC CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF CSI BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB...THOUGH MORE SO ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATIONS SHOW COLD CONVEYOR BELT...DEFORMATION SNOWS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON... AS REGION OF FAVORABLE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...RRQ JET UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION. Q-VECTORS BECOME MOST DIVERGENT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER LATE IN THE DAY...WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING IS CURRENTLY WORDED IN THE ZONES. GOOD UPPER CONFLUENCE/RRQ JET FORCING WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT AT LOW LEVELS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THIS WILL NOT ONLY GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE REGION FROM N TO S...BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN AS WELL GIVEN THE NEUTRAL TO COLD ADVECTION BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB. ANOTHER ZONE UPDATE IS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO FRESHEN THE WORDING AND ACCOUNT FOR TRANSITIONAL WEATHER ELEMENTS. .APX...SNOW ADVISORY...TODAY...MIZ033>036-041-042. HURLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 951 PM EST SUN FEB 13 2000 PREV FCST IN GREAT SHAPE AND HAV ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS BASED ON 18Z ETA. 18Z ETA HAD NO BIG SURPRISES. IT STILL APRS LOW TRACK ACRS EXTRME S VT OR BERKS. MAINLY LGT SNW ACRS FA ATTM...BATCH OF HVIER PCPN XPCTD 06-18Z ASSCD WITH STG ISEN LIFT...WHICH MAY SLIDE E OF ST LAW VLY PER RUC/18Z ETA. SNDGS INDCT ALL SNW N ZNS THRU 12Z WITH CHGOVR S VT 09-12Z. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR N AND W WL WRMR AIR ALF GET DURG MON. CRNT MSAS ANALYS SHWG INVRTD TROF SETTING UP ACRS SRN ADRNDCKS THRU CNTRL VT WITH N/NE WINDS N OF BNDRY. THINK THIS BNDRY WL MARK DELINIATION BTWN CHGOVR TO ICE ALG/S OF BNDRY TO MSTLY SNW NW OF BNDRY. THIS WUD PLACE N CHMPLN VLY/ADRNDCKS/ST LAW VLY IN MSTLY SNW RGN WITH BTV ON THE FENCE AND A LKLY CHG TO ICE S AND E OF BTV. SNDGS AND H8-H7 THICKNESS PROFILE FM 18Z ETA POINTING IN THIS DIRECTION WITH BEST CHC FOR ALL SNW N AND W OF BTV. EVEN AT BTV... WRM LYR LESS THAN 1C SO ITS A CLOSE CALL. WRMR AIR ALF COMING IN FROM S AND E AND THIS REFLECTED IN 1V4 SNDG WHICH HAS A DEEPER AND WRMR LYR ALF THAN BTV...SO AN EVENTUAL CHGOVR TO PE/FZRA BCMG MORE PROBABLE DURG MON FOR PARTS OF NE VT. MAIN CHGS FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO ELIMINATE MNTN OF SLEET/FZRA OVRNGT FOR N ZNS...AND INDCT A PSBL CHGOVR FOR NE VT DURG MON. BEST CHC OF SGFNT ICING WL BE ACRS S VT AND PSBLY E VT. DID NOT CHG ACCUM. .BTV...WNTR STRM WRNG THRU MON NYZ026>031-034-035-VTZ001>012. KJC vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 955 PM EST SUN FEB 13 2000 ONE BATCH OF SHRA/TSTMS MOVING INTO EASTERN PART OF CWA AND WEAKENING DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR IN WEDGE. ROUND 2 IS MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA. BOTH RUC AND MESO-ETA SHOW A GOOD VORT CENTER MOVING INTO W CENTRAL GA NOW. A STRONGER VORT FIELD WILL PUSH INTO NW GA DURING DAY MONDAY AND LIFT NE OUT OF AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE CREPT UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN NW PART OF STATE. WAS TEMPTED TO CLEAR SOME COUNTIES FROM EXTREME NW PART OF WATCH IN CENTRAL GA DUE TO LULL IN ACTION THERE...BUT WILL HANG ON TO IT THOUGH BECAUSE OF ACTIVITY STILL TO COME FROM AL. LATEST WATCH OVER MOST OF AL BUTS UP TO NW GA SO WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THAT AREA CLOSELY. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PRESENT ZONES. WILL TAKE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN NE MOUNTAINS....AND POSSIBLY LOWER POOPS IN CENTRAL AND NE A BIT. OTHERWISE WILL JUST KEEP MONITORING FOR ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. .ATL...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST PARTS OF CENTRAL GA. DH ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 541 PM EST SUN FEB 13 2000 HATE TO DO AN UPDATE THIS EARLY BUT CONDITIONS GOING DOWNHILL QUICK THIS EVENING ACRS N THIRD OF FA. WX HERE AT OFFICE ALTERNATING BWTN +PL OR +SN WITH ALL SNOW N AND MIX S TO ABT A WINIMAC TO DEFIANCE LINE. KIWX RADAR AND COMPOSITE SHOWING PERSISTENT REDEVELOPMENT ALG W EDGE AHD OF MID LVL TROF SEEN ON LATEST RUC ACRS N IL. SO XPC PRECIP BAND TO CONT FOR SVRL MORE HOURS AND ADJUSTED ACCUMS AS NEEDED. .IWX...WINTER WX ADSVY TNGT... NW OHIO...NERN IND. TEH in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES, IA 855 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2000 WL UPDATE FOR AREA OF SNOW MOVG ACRS SRN HLF OF CWA. FAIRLY FST MOVG VORT DEPICTED BY RUC HEADS S HWVR FLO PATTERN WULD KEEP TRACK ACRS ABV MENTIONED AREA. WL GO WITH AREAL TERMS FOR LIGHT SNW OR FLRYS. BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMNT SNW SHULD END ERN PORTION OF CWA AFT MIDN. SUM ADJSTMNT ON TEMPS IN NRN PTN OF CWA AS VERY COLD AIR SETTLES IN WITH HELP OF NE FLO. TNGTS 850MB SHOWS COLDST AIR OVR CTRL MN/WI WITH FLO TURNING MORE IN IA WITH TIME AS 850 LO TRACKS ENEWRD. .DSM...NONE FORSTER ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 310 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2000 H5 SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CWFA TODAY WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 20Z ACCORDING TO SATELLITE WV IMAGERY... WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH KLNX 88D RETURNS. INITIAL FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THIS EVENING AND POSSIBILITY OF FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION DUE TO HIGH LOW LEVEL RH FROM FRESH SNOWFALL AND LIGHT SURFACE WIND. EXPECT MOST OF LIGHT SNOW TO BE OVER BY FORECAST ISSUANCE AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LAST MINUTE TO ADJUST WORDING IN THE NORTHEAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. ETA HAD BEST INITIALIZATION AT H850 THIS MORNING AND KEEPS TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL LOWER THROUGH 24 HOURS AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED. LITTLE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS OVER CWFA THROUGH PERIOD AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING AND WEAK SHORTWAVES TO IMPACT REGION. AT SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH LOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT. SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS ON SURFACE LOW TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF COLD FRONT...BUT ALL TRACK MAIN LOW IN SRN SD/NRN NEB AREA TO KEEP FORECAST AREA ON WARM AND DRY SIDE. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT FROM SW TO NE THIS EVENING WITH TIMING OF HIGH CLOUDS NOT FAR BEHIND OVER WY/CO CRITICAL TO FORECAST LOWS AND POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND STRATUS FORMATION. ETA AND RUC MID AND UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS HINT AT ENOUGH CLEARING BY 06Z TONIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG FORMATION FROM S CENTRAL TO NE ZONES BEFORE CI MOVES IN AND HAVE MENTIONED FOG IN THESE AREAS. WENT CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW COOLER MOS TEMPERATURES AS CI SHOULD COVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE AND LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. H850 TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8 TO 14 DEG C ACROSS CWFA MONDAY...BUT SNOW FIELDS AND CI FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL WORK AGAINST THE LOW LEVEL WAA TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE AND WILL CUT BACK BELOW COOLER FAN. FWC HAS RAISED MONDAY HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEG THE PAST 3 MODEL RUNS... WHILE FAN HAS BEEN MORE STABLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP LOWER LEVELS FROM DECOUPLING MONDAY NIGHT AND GUIDANCE LOWS ACCEPTABLE. WITH DECREASING SNOW COVER AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS TUESDAY...IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...DESPITE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH AREA. IN EXTENDED...WENT ALONG WITH MRF AND ADDED CHANCE RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW MOVES ACROSS KS. ALSO INTRODUCED CHANCE OF SNOW TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH DAKOTAS. .LBF...NONE. SHEETS ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 235 PM CDT SUN FEB 13 2000 THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE EASTWARD SPREAD OF AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW NOW OVER N CNTRL NE. MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST MATCH TO THIS FEATURE...AND HAD HINTS OF IT EVEN YESTERDAY. BOTH ETA AND RUC SUGGEST IT WILL MOVE EWD MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING...WEAKENING AS IT COMES. WILL KEEP THE EVENING FLURRIES IN THE FCST BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS. IN THE LATER PERIODS...MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS COME INTO PLAY AS A SERIES OF FAST MOVG BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES STREAK IN FROM THE PACIFIC AT VARIOUS LATITUDES. MODELS LACK RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THESE FEATURES SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE DETAILS. IF ANYTHING... THE MAJOR TENDENCY HAS BEEN TO GO TOO FAR NORTH WITH SFC FEATURES AND ADJUST SWD OVER TIME...WITH NGM THE WORST IN THIS REGARD AS USUAL. IN ADDITION...THE BROAD SCALE UPPER FLOW IS CONFLUENT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC COMES BACK TOGETHER. THIS SUPPORTS THE TENDENCY OF EACH SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. CLOUDS AND TEMPS ARE THE CONCERNS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVN BEGINNING BY MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HANG ONTO A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT AS LEAST SOME BREAKS AFTER THE TRAILING SHRTWV MOVES OUT EARLY TONIGHT AND MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. BREAKS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS S CNTRL NE WITH A LARGE HOLE OVER ERN SD. TEMPS ARE VULNERABLE TO A FAST DROP WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH AT LEAST SOME SNOW COVER OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA. LIGHT WINDS COULD ALSO ALLOW FOG... BUT ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE CHANCY. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE PUBLIC FORECAST FOR NOW. PREV FCST LOWS ARE GENERALLY BELOW GUIDANCE AND LOOK GOOD. AS WARM ADVN TAKES OVER MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE THINNING OUT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEND TO BE ON THE INCREASE. I WILL AGAIN BE CLOSER TO THE COOLER TEMPS OF THE OLD FCST THAN THE NEW GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL START OUT COLD AND WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR BEST MIXING. NORTHEAST NEB HAS AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND WILL BE PARTICULARLY HARD TO WARM UP. AS STRONG WARM ADVN CONTINUES...THE TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE DROPPING OFF A LOT MONDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAIN HOW THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE...ALTHOUGH MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY STRONG 850-700 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MODEST LIFT LATE IN THE NIGHT BEFORE THE BEST WARM ADVECTION IN THAT LAYER MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. WILL GO A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS BUT NOT AS MUCH AS DURING THE DAY. TUESDAY IS MORE TRICKY AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION...PRECEDED BY VERY MILD AIR AND FOLLOWED BY WIND...STRONG COLD ADVN...AND A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NORTH OF THE TRACK. TEMPS COULD GO REALLY MILD IN POST FRONTAL MIXING ZONE BEFORE COOLER AIR TAKES OVER...AS HAS HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES THIS SEASON. I WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ETA ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA FOR NOW. WITH RECENT MODEL TRENDS ...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP TRACKING EVEN FURTHER S. WILL ALSO HOLD BACK TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTRODUCE A LOW POP FOR RAIN OR SNOW. WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE AREA AFTER THE LOW PASSES EAST. UNCERTAINTY ONLY GROWS LARGER IN THE EXTENDED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WED. FOR NOW...WILL CALL FOR MAINLY DRY CONDS. COLDER AIR FOLLOWS SYSTEM BUT NOT FOR LONG. ECMWF CALLS FOR ANOTHER SFC LOW OF MODERATE INTENSITY TO CROSS KS ON FRI WHILE MRF AND LATEST UKMO APPEAR TO LEAVE US DRY AND IN WARM ADVN. WILL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THIS FAR OUT UNTIL WE SEE WHICH MODEL IS WINNING...IF ANY. .OMA...NONE POLLACK ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 735 PM EST SUN FEB 13 2000 INTERESTING AND POTNTLY DANGEROUS SITN SHAPING UP FOR NRN PA AND MUCH OF CNTRL NY. TWO S/WV'S WILL AFFECT THE RGN...ONE MOVG THRU NOW WITH THE 1ST BATCH OF PCPN...THE 2ND WILL TAKE AIM ON THE RGN TWDS DAYBREAK. 1ST BATCH WILL BE PRIMARILOY LIGHT XCPT FOR SOME LCLY HEAVIER ACTIVITY ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. HEAVIER BATCH WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE 2ND S/WV TWDS DAYBREAK WITH BEST AMTS LIKELY OVER SE ZONES INITIALLY. AREA OF SN/FZRA AND SLEET NOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. MESOETA PROFILES SUGGEST -FZRA MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE NGT FROM NRN PA NWD WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW FAR NRN ZONES. NEARLY ALL OF THE SPOTTER RPTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FZRA ACRS THE SRN TIER. FWC'S KEEP SFC TEMPS BLO FREEZING TNGT AND SO DOES THE LAMP DATA. ONLY XPCTN IS AVP. ON THE OTHER HAND THE RUC PUSHES THE 1000-850 1300M CONTOUR NWD TO THE FINGER LAKES BY 12Z. IN ADDN..THE SFC INVERTED TROF IS OVER WRN NY WHICH COULD ALLOW THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO SURGE INTO CNTRL NY LATE. HOWEVER ATTM BELIEVE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO UPGRADE THE ADVISORY FOR NY AND THE NRN TIER COUNTIES OF PA TO A WARNING DUE TO THE ICING. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE MESOETA DVLPMNT OF A SIG DEFORMATION ZONE/WRAP ARND PCPN AREA TMRW ACRS CNTRL NY. MESOETA PROFILES INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THE PCPN COULD STILL BE FZRA/PL. WILL XNTD THE WARNING FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VLY INTO TMRW...AND INTO TMRW MRNG FOR THE TWIN TIERS. COORD BUF/ALY/CTP. WILL GET OUT NEW PRODUCTS BETWEEN 800 AND 900 PM. .BGM...WINTER STM WRNG TNGT/TMRW FOR ALL OF CNTRL NY AND THE NRN TIER OF PA. WINTER WX ADVSY TNGT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NE PA. BRADY ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 935 PM EST SUN FEB 13 2000 WEDGE HOLDING FAST ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN CWA. MSAS SHOWING TREMENDOUS LI GRADIENT OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST. WARM AIR RIDING OVER THE TOP OF COLD DOME HAS RESULTED IN VERY DENSE FOG IN WEDGE. WILL LIKELY LOWER TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE NOT MUCH HOPE FOR BREAKING CAD WITH PRECIP BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY TRY TO MIX DOWN SOME MILDER TEMPS. TSTMS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST IMPRESSIVE...BUT ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF RAPID WEAKENING AS THEY HEAD INTO MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...THOUGH NOT CAD...IN FAR SWRN VA/TN. SUSPECT A FEW TSTMS WILL WORK INTO WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE PROBLEMS. SCATTERD RAINFALL AMOUNS COULD ALSO BE IMPRESSIVE IN THE FAR WEST...BUT RUC CONTINUES TRENDS OF 12Z/18Z MODELS WITH SPLITTING QPF TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH AS TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HEAD IN BOTH DIRECTIONS. COULD BE A CREEK OR TWO THAT APPROACHES OR TRIES TO EXCEED BANKFULL...BUT NO FFA SEEMS NEEDED UNLESS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER MUCH BETTER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. FINALLY...H5 TEMPS COOL QUICKLY MONDAY WHILE LOW AND MID LEVEL RH BEGIN TO POOL AHEAD OF SFC FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES AFTER 18Z. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED FAR EAST...AND THIS DOES NOT LOOK UNREASONABLE. CURRENT IDEA FOR A SECOND POSSIBLE ROUND OF PM TSTMS GOOD...AND MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED WESTWARD A BIT. .RNK VA...NONE. WV...NONE. NC...NONE. NOGUEIRA va NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO 355 AM MST MON FEB 14 2000 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: WINDY AND WARMER WOULD NICELY DESCRIBE FIRST PD WX. STG NWLY FLOW OVR STATE ATTM AS CNTRL RCKY MTN RGN IS BTWN A LONG WV TROF OVR THE MS VLY AND A MID-LVL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN RCKYS. DEEP NWLY FLOW CURRENTLY OVR CWA WITH 120KT MAX WNDS NR 250MBS AS ACCORDING TO LATEST RUC-2 AND ACARS SNDGS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A LAYER OF MDT STATIC STABILITY BTWN 500-450 MBS...A BIT HIGH TO HV MUCH INFLUENCE OF MTN WV FORMATION. BELOW STABLE LYR...CROSS BARRIER WNDS WERE FM 310-330 DEGS AT 40-50KT. STG RIDGETOP WINDS SHOWING UP ON RADAR REFLECTIVITY AS "BRIGHT" ECHOS ALONG CREST OF FNT RNG. FTHL RAWS AND LDAD OB SITES...INCLUDING AUTOMATED SITE ON NIMOT RIDGE (NR 11 THSND FT) INDICATING PRETTY STG AND GUSTY WLY WNDS PAST FEW HRS...I.E. A GUST OF 37 KTS AT THE RED FEATURE LKS RAWS SITE JUST AFT MIDNIGHT...AND A GUST NR 50 KTS AT THE NIWOT RDG SITE LAST HR. WITH LTL CHG IN THE PRESENT HT AND WND PATTERN SHOULD SEE GUSTY WLY WNDS ALL DAY IN THE MTNS AND FTHLS. GUSTY W-SWLY WNDS WL LKLY MIX DOWN TO THE ADJCNT PLAINS AFT WK SFC BASED INVERSION BREAKS...SOMETIME AFT 17Z. SHOULD SEE GUSTY SWLY WNDS AS FAR E AS LIMON WHERE WINDS WILL WARM TEMPS TO NR 60 THIS AFTN. AS FOR SNOWFALL IN THE MTNS...SEE LTL BREAK IN THE FLOW OF PAC MSTR INTO THE STATE...AND WITH WHO KNOWS HOW MANY WK SHRTWVS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SEE NO REASON TO GO WITH LET THAN SCTD SNOW SHWRS IN THE MTNS...MAINLY ALG AND W OF CONT DVD. STG/GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE COUNTRY...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS DO NOT SEE BLOWING SNOW BEING AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM TODAY. WENT A TAD HIGHER THAN MOS TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR DOWNSLOPE WARMING. BAKER LONG TERM DISCUSSION: EACH OF THE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ACRS CO THRU 48 HRS WITH MOD WLY FLOW AT MID LVLS AND THE UPR LVL JET IN THE VICINITY. LOW LVL MSTR WL BE TRAPPED IN THE MTNS TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF SNOW GOING IN THOSE ZONES. OROGRAPHIC SNOW MODEL SHOWS ONLY 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN ZNS 33 AND 34 TONITE...PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INPUT WIND OF 40 KTS. PLAINS ZNS SHOULD CONT TO SEE MILD TEMPS AND DRY CONDS ON TUES CAUSED BY CONTG DOWNSLP WLY FLOW. THE MOD TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT MAY CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALG THE ERN FTHL SLOPES TONIGHT...BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW AND THE POSN OF THE UPR JET IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A DAMAGING WIND SITN. WL JUST MENTION GUSTY WINDS IN THE FTHLS AND MTN ZNS FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLVING WIND SITN. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LUKS LIKE A LITTLE DIFFERENT PICTURE AS THE AVN AND MRF BRING THE WRN U.S. TROF INTO THE INTERMTN REGION. AT 66 AND 72 HRS THE AVN REALLY INCREASES THE MSTR OVR THE STATE. THE CURRENT FCST ALRDY HAS A CHANCE OF SNOW ACRS THE FCST AREA...SO NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. KDRBY .DEN...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1029 AM EST MON FEB 14 2000 DECIDED TO KEEP SCA FOR ONE MORE PERIOD ACROSS NE FL. DOWNGRADED SCA TO SCEC ACROSS SE GA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND 88D LOOP SHOW LINE OF SURFACE MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE FL AND EXTREME SE GA ATTM. ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TN...N GA...N CNTRL AL...SE LS...AND SOUTHERN LA ATTM. 12Z UPR AIR SNDGS AND RUC...MESO ETA OUT TO LUNCH WITH PCPN...ALL SHOW LOW LVL JET AND STRONG AREA OF DIFF VORT ADV LIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA ATTM ALSO. HOWEVER...W/V LOOP AND UPR AIR DATA ALSO SHOW A WEAK DRY SLOT MOVG ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO N FL WITH VIS LOOP SHOWG SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS BEHIND PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ACROSS NE FL. THUS...MAIN THREAT OF SVR WX BEHIND US BUT WITH FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THIS AFTN AND EVENING... BREAKS IN CLOUDS...PLENTY OF LOW LVL MSTR...AND THAT UPR AIR DRY SLOT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF DURING THE DAY. I WILL AMEND ZFPS TO REFLECT THIS WITH A DECREASING TREND LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ANY ISOLATED THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL. I WILL ALSO BRING WINDS DOWN...REMOVE MENTION OF CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES...AND ADJUST TEMPS FOR CLOUD COVERAGE. CWF...WITH LOW LVL JET LIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA I DO NOT SEE WINDS AND SEAS GETTING INTO SCA CRITERIA. SO WILL BRING THEM DOWN TO SCEC LVLS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. THANKS FOR COORD CHS AND MLB. .JAX... GA...NONE. FL...SCA. SANTOS fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1003 AM EST MON FEB 14 2000 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND 88D LOOP SHOW LINE OF SURFACE MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE FL AND EXTREME SE GA ATTM. ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TN...N GA...N CNTRL AL...SE LS...AND SOUTHERN LA ATTM. 12Z UPR AIR SNDGS AND RUC...MESO ETA OUT TO LUNCH WITH PCPN...ALL SHOW LOW LVL JET AND STRONG AREA OF DIFF VORT ADV LIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA ATTM ALSO. HOWEVER...W/V LOOP AND UPR AIR DATA ALSO SHOW A WEAK DRY SLOT MOVG ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO N FL WITH VIS LOOP SHOWG SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS BEHIND PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ACROSS NE FL. THUS...MAIN THREAT OF SVR WX BEHIND US BUT WITH FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THIS AFTN AND EVENING... BREAKS IN CLOUDS...PLENTY OF LOW LVL MSTR...AND THAT UPR AIR DRY SLOT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF DURING THE DAY. I WILL AMEND ZFPS TO REFLECT THIS WITH A DECREASING TREND LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ANY ISOLATED THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL. I WILL ALSO BRING WINDS DOWN...REMOVE MENTION OF CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES...AND ADJUST TEMPS FOR CLOUD COVERAGE. CWF...WITH LOW LVL JET LIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA I DO NOT SEE WINDS AND SEAS GETTING INTO SCA CRITERIA. SO WILL BRING THEM DOWN TO SCEC LVLS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. THANKS FOR COORD CHS AND MLB. .JAX... GA...NONE. FL...NONE. SANTOS fl WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 945 AM EST MON FEB 14 2000 MOST CELLS ARE STRONG OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL ZONES...THEN WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD TOWARD THE MORE STABLE AIR AT THE COAST. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL OVER LAND AT THIS TIME...BUT SPECIAL MAINE WARNINGS WILL STILL BE A PLAYER. 06Z MESOETA COMPLETELY MISSING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING THIS MORNING...BUT 500 MB VORT MAX AND RESULTING OMEGA FIELD SEEM TO BE VERIFYING REASONABLY WELL. LATEST RUC KEEPS RAIN OUT OF SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH 18Z...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST...WILL HOLD ONTO CURRENT POP REGIME. I WILL WAIT UNTIL LATE MORNING TO UPDATE TO CHECK ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. TIDES RUNNING ROUGHLY A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING ON STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...EVEN A 1.5 FEET AT CEDAR KEY. DONT EXPECT ANOMALIES TO GET MUCH HIGHER AS WINDS SHOULD START BACKING OFF SOME LATER IN THE DAY. WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY...HOWEVER. MARINE: BUOY 42036 JUST SHY OF SCA CRITERIA...BUT GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES HERE. .TBW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS TODAY. ALSHEIMER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1130 AM EST MON FEB 14 2000 MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTN ARE CLOUD TRENDS AND SNOW CHANCES. 16Z SFC CHART SHOWING ALL OF UPR MI UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING FM JAMES BAY DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. HOWEVER...WX IS NOT COMPLETELY CALM THIS MORNING AS MANY AREAS OF CLOUDS ARE MAKING AN IMPACT ON THINGS AND COUPLED SHRTWVS CURRENTLY OVR NRN MN AND S CNTRAL MN PRODUCING LGT SN OVR THE GOPHER STATE. ATTM BELEIVE UPR MI WL MISS MOST OF SIG LGT SN TODAY AS SHRTWVS APPEAR TO BE SPLITTING THE YOOP WITH NRN ONE EXITING TO EAST ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND SRN ONE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARD SRN WI. BOTH MESOETA AND RUC INITIALIZED THE NRN SHRTWV FAIRLY WELL...HOWEVER ONLY THE RUC HAS HAD ANY SUCCESS WITH SECONDARY SHRTWV AND EVEN SO APPEARED TO WEAK WITH IT FM THE BEGINNING. SFC METARS ALSO PAINT A PICTURE OF SPLIT PRECIP AREAS AS NORTH OF A BJI TO DLH 50W CORRIDOR 3-5SM W/ -SN IS A COMMON THEME AND SOUTH OF THE CORRIDOR THE SAME CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT. KDLH 88D ALSO SHOWING AN AREA OF < 20DBZ RETURNS ACROSS NERN MN ATTM. RESULT IS TO PUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SN OR FLURRIES ACROSS ONT AND THE KEWEENAW WITH EVERYBODY ELSE ACROSS THE NRN FA SEEING FLURRIES AT BEST. WITH INTERPOLATION OF THE SRN SHRTWV AND METARS...LOOKS LIKE BEST FORCING WON'T AFFECT SRN UPR MI FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WL BE THE RULE FOR WRN FA AS HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INVADE IN ADVANCE OF COUPLING SHRTWVS...FOR THE ERN FA ONLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE WL SPOIL MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. TEMPS IN WRN FA WERE BUMPED DOWN A FEW DEGREES DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS...OTHERWISE TEMPS ELSEWHERE LOOK ON TRACK. .MQT...NONE. JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1053 AM EST MON FEB 14 2000 WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF LOWER MI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STRONG SFC LOW MOVING NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WEAK RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO UPR MI AND WI AHEAD OF A VORT LOBE OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. CAA IS TAKING PLACE WITH VERY LITTLE SFC WARMING OCCURRING SO FAR THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE N/NW AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. LAKE HURON SNOW BANDS FEEDING OFF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ARE TOO SHALLOW TO SHOW UP ON RADAR...BUT ARE STILL PERSISTING PER LATEST OSC AND MBS OBS. VSBYS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AS BANDS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N. EXPECT THIS DIMINISHING TREND ACROSS NE LOWER MI TO CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW LATE. HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW WILL ALSO BRING LAKE EFFECT BANDS ACROSS LAKES SUPERIOR AND MI ONSHORE IN ERN UPR AND NW LOWER MI LATE IN THE DAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS STAY AROUND 4500 FT...WITH DELTA T'S OF 15 AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RH (APPROX. 50-60 PCT) TO MAINTAIN PRODUCTION OF SCT LAKE SHSN THRU THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ENHANCING LIFT FROM THE VORT LOBE WILL NOT PLAY A BIG ROLE UNTIL EARLY EVENING BASED ON LATEST RUC POSITION AND TIMING, WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH COOLER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE LOOP. WILL WORD NE LOWER MI ZONES AS SCT SHSN TAPERING TO FLURRIES. FOR ERN UPR AND NW LOWER MI...WILL WORD AS A CHANCE OF SHSN LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND FAR NW LOWER MI ZONES. WILL ALSO HAVE TO ADJUST AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWNWARD A CATEGORY OR TWO BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAA THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. .APX...NONE. EME mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 255 AM EST MON FEB 14 2000 SFC LOW OVR S CNTRL OH AND PCPN STILL EXPANDING OVER E 2/3 OF FCST AREA. PCPN THAT DVLPD IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER MI AND ONTARIO ALSO EXPANDING ACRS N IN AND NW OH AS TRAILING S/WV OVR MIDWEST FEEDS INTO BACK END OF SYSTEM. THIS SHUD KEEP SOME LGT SNOW/FZDZ OVR NW OH EARLY THIS MORN. WILL CONT WITH ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ALL BUT FAR SE PART OF FCST AREA FM MILLERSBURG TO YTOWN WHERE TEMPS MAY STAY JUST ABV FREEZING. RUC MODEL SHOWS SFC LOW GETTING E OF FCST AREA BY 15Z WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN QUICKLY MID TO LATE MORN AND PCPN SHUD CHANGE TO SNOW. NGM PRINTS OUT MAJORITY OF PCPN ACRS NW PA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AS NEW DFORMATION ZONE SETS UP BUT BELIEVE IT IS OVERDONE SO FAR WEST AND ETA BETTER WITH PCPN MOSTLY 12Z TO 18Z. UVV SHUD BCM WEAK. DONT EXPECT MUCH SNOW EXCEPT MAYBE EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA WHERE CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LAKE ENHANCMENT COULD BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES. ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY LATE TUE/TUE NGT. DONT KNOW IF WE WILL HAVE MUCH CHANCE FOR CLEARING AS MID/HIGH CLDS COULD COME BACK IN BEFORE SC CLEARS OUT. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FAST MVMNT PCPN WILL BE LGT WITH BETTER CHANCE FARTHER N NR LERI. COULD WARM UP ENUF FOR SHRA WITH WAA LATE TUE AND TUE NGT. TEMP GUIDANCE IN THE BALLPARK BUT WL DO A LITTLE FINE TUNING. .CLE...WINTER WEATHER ADVSORY THIS MORNING NW AND N CENTRAL OHIO WINTER WX ADVISORY NE OHIO THRU 4 PM. WINTER WX ADVISORY TODAY ERIE PA LAKESHORE. WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY INLAND NW PA. KOSARIK oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST MON FEB 14 2000 A STRONG ALONG-STREAM VARIATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND SPEED WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A THICK CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BUT CIRRUS HAS ALREADY THINNED AND RECENT RUC AND ETA GUIDANCE SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTING EAST QUITE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF DECREASING CIRRUS. AS A RESULT MORE SUN SHOULD REACH THE GROUND THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AND MAY NEED TO RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS IN ALL AREAS TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPEARS STRONGER THAN LAST MODELS INDICATED. MAY RESULT IN STRONGER RETURN FLOW TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE A SURFACE LOW DRAGS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY. WON'T MAKE ANY CHANGES FOR TUESDAY YET...BUT WILL PASS ALONG THOUGHTS TO THE LONG-TERM FORECASTER. .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. JAMES ok TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 425 AM CST MON FEB 14 2000 PLENTY OF LEE ENHANCED CI STREAMING ACROSS FA ATTM. ONLY RUC PICKED UP ON AMOUNT OF HI LEVEL RH AND AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL WITH IT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF MORNING WITH THINNER VARIETY ACROSS NRN ZNS. LATEST MOS TEMPS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MAY BE PLAYING CATCH UP TO COLD AIRMASS ACROSS FA YDAY. SFC RIDGE AXIS FM ERN NEB INTO CENTRAL OK AT 09Z WILL SLOWLY MOVE E TODAY AS LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WINDS MAY BE SOME CONCERN ESP NW ZNS THIS AFTN THOUGH WILL KEEP BELOW LAKE CAUTION FOR NOW. WILL KEEP COOLEST FIRST PERIOD TEMPS NE WITH WARMEST WRN ZNS AS WMFNT CONTINUES OVER AREA AND COOL AIR CYCLES AROUND RIDGE TO E. SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING INTO TUE. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL THROUGH EARLY WED AS LOW OFF CA COAST MOVES E ACROSS NRN PLAINS. AVN BREAKS OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP S OF FA TUE WITHOUT RETURNING MUCH LVL MOISTURE. SYSTEM LIKELY STRONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST SO MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THUS ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO AREAS S AND E OF FA. WILL NOT PLACE ANY POPS INTO FCST ATTM WITH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THIS TYPE SPLIT FLOW. AM CONFIDENT HOWEVER THAT MORE CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT AREA TUE WITH SOME IMPACT ON TEMPS. WILL ADJUST TEMPS DOWNWARD SOME. IN EXTENDED... CDFNT SHOULD BACK DOOR INTO AREA LATE TUE...POSSIBLY LATER IF SYSTEM IN NRN PLAINS SLOWER THAN PROGGED. NEXT SYSTEM THEN DROPS INTO PLACE UNDER BLOCKING HIGH TO CONTINUE TREND OF POOR MODEL INITIALIZATION AND LOW CONFIDENCE FCSTS THROUGH END OF WEEK. SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO MS VALLEY ON WED WITH COOL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS AREA. CONTINUE TO FAVOR ECMWF THROUGH EXTENDED WITH SHRTWV MOVING INTO PLAINS THU THEN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FRI. WITH FNTL BOUNDARY POSSIBLE IN AREA PROSPECTS ON PRECIP BETTER TOWARD END OF WEEK BUT WILL NOT INSERT INTO FCST YET. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. COBB tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CST MON FEB 14 2000 FCST FOCUS ON PESKY LIGHT SNOW/FLURYS THIS MRNG...AND WX SYSTEM FOR TUE. IN THE SHORT TERM...FLURYS/LITE SNOW CONT ACRS PTNS OF CWA AS VERY WK HIGH PRES TRYING TO DISPLACE CYCLOINIC CIRCULATION FROM DEPARTING OH VLY LOW. ETA/NGM/AVN/MESOETA BUILD HIGH INTO CWA BY 18Z PUTTING END TO PCPN. THIS ACCEPTED EXCEPT FOR LK SHORE COUNTIES WHERE RUC MODEL DRIVES SURGE OF H8 COLD AIR DOWN LAKE MI DURING LATE MRNG HRS. CURRNT LK EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN POISED TO SLIDE TWD CWA AS FAVORABLE H8 FETCH EVOLVES FOR A BREIF TIME LATR THIS MRNG. THUS WILL PUT A COMBO OF FLURYS/SNOW SHOWERS ALG LK SHORE COUNTIES FOR MAINLY MRNG HRS WITH BEST CHCS ACROSS SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES. HOWEVER WITH MARGINAL DELTA T...VERY MINOR IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. IN THE FAR TERM...AFTER QUIET NITE...ATTENTION TURNS TO VIGOROUS LOW CHUGGING OUT OF PLAINS. QUICK GLANCE AT NEW MESOETA CONFIRMS TREND OF ETA/NGM/AVN PROGS FOR RAPID RETURN OF MOISTR/PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM. TIME XSECTIONS INDICATE NOT ONLY VERY IMPRESSIVE UVV BUT UPRIGHT DEEP MOISTR PROFILE WHICH INDICATES PCPN BEGINNING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AFTER ARRIVAL OF SYSTEM CLDS. SOME SLITE DEVIATION OF PROGS NOTED AS ETA DRIVES SYSTEM FURTHEST SOUTH...NGM FAVORS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK DUE TO ITS FASTER RETURN OF WARMER AIR. AVN PROG HAS STRONGEST VORT OF 26 UNITS AND LIKE THE ETA TAKES VORT TACK ACRS SRN WI. ON THE SFC AVN GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN NRN NGM AND SRN ETA SOLTIONS. THUS WILL BASE FCST ON TRACK OF SFC LOW ACRS SRN WISC. THIS GIVES BEST SNOW CHCS ACRS NRN CWA WHERE MENTION OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE INCLUDED. OVER SRN PTNS OF CWA BUFKIT HINTS AT PSBL R/ZR ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN HRS. FEEL MAJORITY OF PCPN WILL BE SNOW OVR SOUTH...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MIXED PCPN ATTM. COORD...THANKS GRB. .UWNMS...SIMILAR TO ETA MDL BUT WEAKEST WITH STRENGTH OF SFC SYSTEM AND MINIMAL PCPN GENERATION. .MKX...NONE. /..0..0..0 $$ ZAJDEL wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 915 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2000 MAIN FCST PRBLM IS LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. NEW ETA NOT QUITE AS COLD AT 850 MB AS 12Z RUN. ALSO THE DURATION FOR FAVORABLE WINDS IS A BIT SHORTER. HOWEVER...KGRB WSR-88D IMAGRY IS SHOWING A DEVELOPING AREA OF RETURNS ALONG THE EC WI SHORE. AM TEMPTED TO REDUCE THE 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW POSSIBILITIES A BIT...BUT IN LIGHT OF THE OBSERVED INCREASE IN RETURNS ON THE GRB RADAR...AND THE FACT THAT THE LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS FOR MKE STILL HAVE A SATURATED AIRMASS BELOW 10000 FT (3 KM) WL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS ATTM. .MKX...NONE. /..0..0..0 $$ HENTZ wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1010 AM EST MON FEB 14 2000 DEWPT FRONT NOW ALONG THE WRN RIDGES AND SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT BY MID AFTN. SEEING A FEW -SHRA OVER WVA ALONG WEAK THETA-E RIDGE ATTM OTRW PRE-FRONTAL BAND HAS TAKEN REAL DEEP RH OFF THE COAST THIS MORN. MAIN CONCERN IS WITH PTNL RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS HEATING GETS GOING ESPCLY ERN THIRD THIS AFTN. MODIFIED MORN RAOBS INDICATE A LACK OF VERY DEEP MOISTURE OR INSTAB WITH UNIFORM WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE ABOVE. OTHER LIMITING FACTOR APRS WITH ADVECTION OF MID/HIGH LVL MOISTURE FROM THE TN VLY ASSOCD WITH NEXT SPEED MAX APCHG. THUS APRS BEST TSRA CHCS LIKELY OVER THE FAR SE CTYS WHERE DEWPT DIFFS BETWEEN RESIDU WEDGE AND EXITING DEEP RH MAY ENHANCE LIFT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE RIDGES THIS AFTN. ELSW WITH WEDGE REMNANTS KEEPING STAB IN PLACE OUT EAST AND FILTERING IN OF DRIER AIR WEST WILL LIMIT TO ONLY BANDS OF SHRA THERE GNRLY IN LINE WITH LATEST MESO-ETA RH. INCRSG WIND GRAD THE OTHER STORY ONCE SFC WAVE EXITS/DEEPENS AND RIDGING BEGINS TO FILL EWD. BASED ON FCST PRES RISES OFF THE RUC/ETA...EXPECT WILL SEE ADVSRY CRIT DVLP WRN RIDGES LATE THIS AFTN...THEN SPREADING AT LEAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS THIS EVE. WILL LKLY NEED TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN SOME SE WVA AS CAA KICKS IN AND PARTS OF THE ERN ZONES WITH LINGERING WEDGE SCENARIO AND CLDNS OTRW FEW CHANGES. .RNK VA...WIND ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WV...WIND ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NC...WIND ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. JH va