NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO 330 AM MST FRIDAY FEBRUARY 11 2000 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: NRLY ALL OF PCPN PAST SVRL HRS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A BOULDER TO AKRON LN. WHEREAS MTN ZNS HAVE CONTD TO RECEIVE STEADY SNOWFALL OF VARYING INTENSITIES. ALL THIS BECAUSE OF INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SHRTWV TROF PASSING OVR UT ATTM. FM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OVR XTRM SERN UT. THIS MATCHED UP NICELY WITH 250MB WARM POOL AND STEEPEST 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OFF THE RUC AND ETA. MOVEMENT OF CIRCULATION CENTER WAS TO THE E AT ABOUT 40KTS. FOR NEXT SVRL HRS...WOULD XPCT TO SEE SNOWFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASING BOTH IN THE N-CNTRL MTNS AND ON NERN PLNS AS VORT MAX/SHRT WV APPROACHES. BEST INSTABILITY AND QG ASCENT OVR CWA BTWN 09Z-15Z THIS MRNG. ALREADY SEEING SN SHWR COVERAGE INCREASING ON THE PLAINS. BLV BANDED SN SHWR ACTVTY WILL EXPAND SWRD INTO THE DEN METRO AREA NXT HR OR SO. STILL RELUCTANT TO GO WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN AND AROUND METRO AREA DUE TO LACK OF ELY UPSLOPE FLOW. PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWED E-SELY WNDS LESS THAN A THSND FT DEEP ATTM. ABV THAT WNDS WERE W-SWLY IN DIR. PROGD SFC WNDS OFF SFM GRDLY SHIFT TO A S-SELY COMPONENT ON THE PLNS BY 12Z...WITH HINT OF A WK DEN CYCLONE CENTERED NR D.I.A...AND LGT NLY/BARRIER WNDS UP AGAINST FTHLS. KP IN MIND...S-SELY BNDRY LYR WNDS ARE UPSLOPE WNDS FOR LARIMER AND NWRN WELD CTYS. SO BEST CHC TO SEE ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LKLY OCCUR THERE. LASTLY...SHOULD SEE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CNDTNS ON THE PLAINS AFT 18Z WITH DOWNWARD FORCING AND INCREASING STABILITY ON BACK SIDE OF SHRTWV TROF. MEANWHILE...SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE N-CNTRL MTNS ZNS 33..34 WILL BE EXTENDED THRU NOON TODAY WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 3-6 INCHES XPCTD MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT DVD. SINCE AMS OF PAC ORIGIN SEE LTL COOLING IN THE MTNS TODAY. WHEREAS TEMPS ON THE PLAINS WL REMAIN SVRL DEGS BELOW NORMAL TODAY AS FLOW ARND 1030 MB SFC HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS WILL KP CHILLY CANADIAN AIR MASS SHOVED UP AGAINST THE FNT RNG FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MOS TEMP AND POP GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOKS REASONABLE. BAKER LONG TERM DISCUSSION: GENLY ZONAL FLOW TO PERSIST THRU WEEKEND WITH ONE SHT WV MOVING BY TODAY...SEE ABOVE AND THEN NEXT ONE IS DUE IN WRN CO SAT EVE AND THRU ERN CO ERLY SUN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS SCENARIO SO MAIN DFRNC IS AMOUNT MSTR. ALTHO SOME MINOR DFRNCS IN SFC PTRN. FOR CWA WILL BE MOSTLY IN DWNSLP PTRN ALTHO MAY SEE UPSLP FLOW DVLPG IN FAR NERN ZONES ON SUN AS SFC LOW MOVES TO GLD VCNTY AND THEN INTO SERN KS BUT NOT A FACTOR FOR 2ND OR 3RD PD OF FCSTS. WITH DWNSLP FLOW AND ONLY MID/HI LVL MSTR AVBL WILL CUT POPS TO ZERO FOR ERN CO TNGT AND SAT. FOR MTNS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ORGRPHCS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY BUT MSTR WILL BE LESS TNGT AND SAT MORNG BFR INCRSG LATE SAT AS TROF MOVES INTO SRN UT WITH SWLY FLOW OVER CO. WILL CUT THE POPS IN MTNS BACK TO SCT DUE DCRSG MSTR...LACK OF DYNMCS AS WEAK RDG MOVING OVERHEAD PLUS LESS ORGRPHCS WITH SWLY FLOW TMW. WHILE FAN AND FWC GDNC APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON HI TEMPS FOR SAT APPEARS TOO COLD TNGT CONSIDERING FACT DWNSLP FLOW AND PTLY CLDY SKIES SHUD HOLD TEMPS IN MIDDLE 20S SO WILL GO ABOVE GDNC FOR TNGT. AS FOR LONGER TERM...NEW MRF INDCTS SOME CONSOLIDATION OF FLOW ALF AND NEXT SHT WV WILL BE MORE FROM NW AND DUE TO ARV SUN NGT OR MON MORN WITH STRGR NWLY FLOW ALF OVER CO. RDG TO PASS OVER CO MON NGT AND THEN WSWLY FLOW ALF ON TUES AS NEXT SHT WV APCHS CA COAST. CWA WILL BE IN DWNSLP PTRN XCP FOR PSBL UPSLP FLO IN FAR NE EARLY SUN AS ANOTHER ARCTC SURGE MVS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS THEN. THIS MEANS WILL NEED TO KEEP WINDY AND CHANCE OF SNOW IN MTNS EACH DAY THRU EFP WHILE ONLY REAL THREAT OF PCPN IN PLAINS WILL BE SUNDAY AND EVEN THEN ONLY A SLIM CHANCE. THIS ALREADY PRETTY MUCH WAY EFP READS AND WILL NOT CHANGE. BOODA .DEN...SNOW ADVSY CONTD FOR THE N-CNTRL MTNS UNTIL NOON TODAY... ZNS 33 AND 34. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 1000 AM EST FRI FEB 11 2000 CDFNT ATTM STRETCHES FM WRN PA-WVA-ERN TN AND BCMS DIFFUSE DURG AFTN. PCPN AHD OF FNT SHUD BE OUTTA AREA BY ZFP RLS. RDR COMPOSITE NOT SHWG MUCH TO THE W. RUC RH BARELY ABV 50 PCT TAFTN...KEEPING QPF ALNG WRN RDGS...AND AMTS MINIMAL AT THAT. THUS...WL RMV POPS FOR THE AFTN...KEEPING MNTN OF SPRNKLS IN WRN ZNS. BEST SURGE OF CLDR AIR SHUNTD TO THE N TIL AFTR DRK...SO DONT SEE GSTY NW WNDS OR DROPPING TEMPS. HWVR...W/ CLDY SKIES AND H8 CAA AFTR 18Z...ADDTL TEMP RISES WL BE LMTD. WL TWEAK TEMPS AFTR VIEWING 15Z MTR. AS PER LTR PDS...WISH TO VIEW 12Z MDL RUNS BFR MAKING ANY CHGS OR DETERMINING WHAT IF ANY HDLNS MAY BE ADDED. MNWHL...WL REISSUE OUTLK SPS REFINING A BIT MORE AND STRESSING UNCERTAINTY IN FCST. ZFP WIBIS ARND 1015 AM...SPS ARND 1030 AM. COORD WELCOMED. .LWX...NONE HTS md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 950 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2000 FORECAST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. EAST OF THE HIGH...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WAS PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTED THIS EVENING WHITEFISH BAY...ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF M-72 AND EAST OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...AND ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE NORTH OF ALPENA. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THE LAND BREEZE SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT AT MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...LAKE-850 MB DELTA TS WILL DECREASE AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS...AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT. THUS...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SHEARED AND INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...AND TREND FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER TO FLURRIES OR END ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS. PER 0Z RUC GUIDANCE AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST LONGEST AROUND WHITEFISH BAY...BUT EVEN HERE SURFACE LAND BREEZE/SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD PUSH SNOW SHOWERS OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES VARY WIDELY FROM AREAS UNDER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...19F AT BELLAIRE...TO AREAS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...0F AT CADILLAC. ACROSS THE EASTERN UP AND ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES OF LOWER MICHIGAN...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE RANGES COULD VARY BY AROUND 15F DUE TO BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...WHILE AREAS WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING...SUCH AS PELLSTON AT 3F...COULD WARM OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CHANGE AND CLOUDS SPREAD. WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO INDICATE SOME OF THESE TRENDS. ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND WITH SNOW COVER/LIGHT WIND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. FINALLY...WILL FRESHEN WIND WORDING OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WIND AT MOST LOCATIONS. .APX...NONE. ROWLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 AM EST FRI FEB 11 2000 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. 13Z SFC ANAL SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DAKOTAS/W MN WITH RIDGE EXTENDING E ACROSS EXTREME S ONTARIO. VIS IMAGERY AND KMQT 88D SHOW MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS OVER ENTIRE LAKE. MQT COUNTY IN SHADOW UNDER NW FLOW. SHORTER NORTHERLY FETCH NEAR LUCE COUNTY RESULTING IN LITTLE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY...BUT BACKING WINDS MAY INCREASE -SHSN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THERE. RADAR RETURNS GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH HIGHEST ECHOES IN 24-28 DBZ RANGE. LES LIMITED BY VERY DRY AIR...EVEN THOUGH 12Z RAOBS SHOW H85 TEMPS OVER LAKE AROUND -20C. SFC DEWPOINTS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE GENERALLY AOB -18F (-28C). VWP INDICATES INVERSION BASE AROUND 6000FT...WHILE 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION AT SFC AT KMPX AND AROUND 4500 FT AT KAPX. RUC AND 12Z ETA HAVE SFC HIGH DRIFT SLOWLY ESE TOWARD WI. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN GREATEST PRESSURE RISES OCCURRING WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. -22C H85 THERMAL TROF WILL CROSS E LAKE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE WEST AS HIGH DRIFTS TO OUR SW. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BASE OF INVERSION REMAINING NEARLY STEADY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING BL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN COUNTIES. LIMITING FACTORS CONTINUE TO BE DRY AIR AND WINDS BACKING TO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL TAPER AFTERNOON ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY. WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK...ONLY LOWERED GOGEBIC COUNTY MAX BASED ON CURRENT TREND (IWD ONLY 3C AT 15Z). .MQT...NONE. JS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 300 PM CDT FRI FEB 11 2000 TWO MAIN ISSUES THIS FCST PD...HOW FAR NE TO SPRD THE SNOW THIS EVENING AND HOW MUCH SNOW AND EVEN PCPN TYPE ON SUNDAY. SHORT TERM...CURRENT ZONE ALIGNMENT AND FCST FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS GOOD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LNK TO NEBR CITY LINE. WL CUT BACK AMOUNTS TO AN INCH OR LESS. ACCUMULATING SNOW WL PRBLY HAVE A SHARP EDGE IF 925MB RH PROGS ARE TO BE BELIEVED...WITH PRBLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES...IF THAT...TO THE NORTH. LATEST RUC PCPN FCST AND 88D MOSAIC TRENDS SUPPORT THIS. PREV TEMP FCST LOOKS GOOD...NO BIG DEVIATION FM GUID. FOR SAT...MOST OF ANY PCPN GENERATED DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT FM ETA THRU 18Z MAINLY N OF STATE...HOWEVER LATER IN THE DAY ALL MODELS BRING EITHER A LOBE OR VORT MAX INTO FCST AREA WITH QG FORCING NOTED. SO CAN'T RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW COMPLETELY AND WL KEEP FLURRIES IN FCST MUCH OF THE S WITH SMALL POPS ACRS NRN ZONES. SHOULD BE CLDY OR MOCLDY AS LOW CLDS COULD RTN OR AT LEAST A LOT OF MID AND HI CLDS DUE TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE AROUND. SO WL KEEP TEMP FCST SVRL DEGREES BLO GUID. SAT NGT/SUN...MODELS ALL FCST CLOSED 850 MB AND SFC LOW IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SIGFNT SNOWS PARTS OF CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ETA IS MUCH LIGHTER WITH PCPN AMOUNTS BY 12Z SUNDAY AND FTHR S WITH SFC LOW THAN NGM/AVN AND ETA INDICATES MAINLY SNOW...EXCEPT EXTREME SERN CORNER. NGM AND ESPECIALLY AVN ARE WARMER AND BRING RAIN/SNOW LINE INTO OMA VCNTY...AT LEAST BASED ON 850 MB TEMP AND 1000/500 THICKNESS PARAMETERS. IF THIS INDEED VERIFIES...THIS COULD POSE SOME PRBLMS IF COLD AIR AT THE SFC ISN'T SCOURED OUT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE COULD BE A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN OR SOME SORT OF MIXED PCPN. AGAIN SINCE THIS SYSTEM WAS STILL OFF THE W COAST AT MODEL INITIALIZATION...FEEL THERE ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES BUT WE WL ISSUE AN SPS ON IT AND GO WITH THE HIGH FAN/FWC POPS. WL KEEP PCPN TYPE SNOW N OF AN OMA-OLU LINE BUT MENTION A MIX S...WITH IT MOSTLY RAIN FAR SERN ZONES. AGAIN BECAUSE OF CLDS/PCPN WOULD EXPECT LTL DIURNAL TEMP RANGE SUN. WE WL KEEP PCPN INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED DRY. .OMA...NONE CHERMOK ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 930 PM EST FRI FEB 11 2000 SLOW MOVING CD FNT WAS LOCATED FROM APPROXIMATELY KCLT TO KFAY TO S OF KORF AT 02Z. LATEST RUC PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE ILM CWA IN THE 04Z-07Z TIME FRAME. OBS BEHIND THE FRONT INDICATE DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND THEREFORE CURRENT FCST LOWS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. AS FOR POPS... FRONT IS INACTIVE AND BELIEVE ANY CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED TO WRN CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK AS LIFT SPREADS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF FAST-MOVING H5 S/WV. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND BUT REMOVE ELSEWHERE. CWF: WINDS TO SHIFT NE AFTER FROPA. MESOETA STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS SRN SC WATERS BY 12Z SAT BEFORE MOVING IT BACK TO THE N. CURRENT FCST LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND DON'T ANTICIPATE CHANGES. .ILM...NONE. MORGAN nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 945 AM EST FRI FEB 11 2000 UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWS TROF MOVING NORTH OF REGION TODAY. WITH SHORT WAVE KICKING TROF TO THE COAST...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY 00Z SUNDAY. AT SFC...LOW OVER NEW YORK THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY IS NOW PULLING AWAY RATHER QUICKLY WITH ITS RESIDUAL MOISTURE. DRIZZLE AND FOG ALREADY ENDING AT 14Z IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES. DRIER AIR IS PUSHING IN BEHIND BOUNDARY THAT IS AHEAD OF VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT HAVE RECENTLY PASSED FDY AND AOH DELINEATE BOUNDARY...WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS EVIDENT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY WILL HAVE CROSSED MOST OF AREA BY ISSUANCE TIME...SO THERE SHOULD BE NO NEED TO MENTION DRIZZLE AND FOG EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS IN THE EAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR TODAY...AFTER CURRENT DRIZZLE ENDS...BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER MICHIGAN SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF HERE WITH VORT MAX PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACCORDING TO RUC AND MESOETA. FOR TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE...BUT SATELLITE AND MODELS INDICATE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ON THE WAY. ON SATURDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG IN AS SYSTEM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...MESOETA INDICATES .01 QPF AT PMH FOR SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WILL WAIT FOR NEXT FULL MODEL RUN BEFORE DECIDING TO REINTRODUCE POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. FCST TEMPS ALSO LOOK PRETTY GOOD THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO ADJUST THIS AFTERNOON'S WORDING A BIT AFTER EXAMINING TEMP TRENDS JUST PRIOR TO ISSUANCE. LATEST MRF/AVN INDICATE EXTENDED TEMPS MAY NEED UPWARD ADJUSTMENT...ALONG WITH MAKING LIQUID PRECIP PREDOMINANT... BUT WILL WAIT FOR NEXT AVN RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS. MISILN OUT BY SOON. .ILN...NONE. CONIGLIO oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1045 AM EST FRI FEB 11 2000 RUC SHOWS SUBFREEZING AIR ENTERING LOWLEVELS OF OHIO HEADWATERS. PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN THE CHANGEOVER FROM LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRAINS. RUC AND MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF THIS SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. SINCE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO ONLY ACCUMULATE TRACE AMOUNTS WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN CLEVELAND CWA FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY...PER COORDINATION WITH WFO CLE. OTHER CONCERN IS ICE JAMMING ON AREA CREEKS. HAVE ISSUED FFA FOR BELMONT COUNTY OH PER REPORTS OF ICE JAMMING FROM COUNTY EMA. ...GIORDANO .PBZ... MD...NONE. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1000 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ZONE OHZ059. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1025 AM EST FRI FEB 11 2000 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CDFNT FM STATE COLLEGE PA...THRU CHARLESTON WV...SW TO E OF NASHVILLE TN. AT UPPER LEVELS...VORT MAX INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC DATA OVER NE TN. THIS FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS OVER SW VA/ERN KY. TIMING OF FRONT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...PASSING FM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. VORT MAX LIKEWISE PROGGED TO MOVE FM W TO E ACROSS THE AREA. THESE TWO FEATURES WARRANT KEEPING CHC POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. THINK CHC POPS IS HIGH ENOUGH...DESPITE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOES OVER NRN COUNTIES. MUCH OF WHAT IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR HAS NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND...BASED ON SFC OBS...DUE TO EXTREME DRYNESS OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER EVIDENT IN WAL SOUNDING. A NUMBER OF STATIONS REPORTING SPRINKLES...TRACE AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN A TAD NRN COUNTIES. MAY NEED TO MAKE SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT THERE. .AKQ...NONE REILLY va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1030 PM EST FRI FEB 11 2000 MAIN CONCERN FOR UPDATE THIS EVENING IS TO EVALUATE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN NORTH PART OF CWA AS WEAK/FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW...TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR THAT MUCH THREAT TONIGHT. CAPE REMAINS BELOW 1500 J/KG...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER N AL THROUGH 12Z...THEN DIMINSIHING EVEN FURTHER AFTER 12Z. MAX 250MB DIVERGENCE MOVES FROM EXTREME NW CORNER OF AL AT 06Z SAT ACROSS SOUTHERN TN OVERNIGHT AND INTO WESTERN NC BY 12Z SAT. MESO-ETA...ETA...AND RUC MODELS ALL SHOW PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING INSTABILITY FROM 06Z THROUGH 12Z...WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE LI'S REMAINING WELL SOUTHWEST OF GA OVERNIGHT. FURTHERMORE...FRONTAL SYSTEM...NOW STALLED ALONG GA/TN BORDER...ACTUALLY BEGINS TO LIFT SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...THUS FURTHER REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WX IN GA. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE IS IMPRESSIVE...THERE ARE TOO MANY NEGATIVE FACTORS IN PLACE AT THIS POINT. THUS...CONSIDERING ALL OF THESE FACTORS...MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NW CORNER OF GA AND PERHAPS THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER OF GA COUNTIES. WILL REALIGN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PREDICTION...AND REMOVE "SEVERE" WORDING FROM COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET. FRONTAL SYSTEM MEANDERS SLOWLY N OVER THE NW PART OF THE STATE...BUT BUILDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD MID-ATLANTIC AND A "WEDGE" PATTERN BEGINS TO APPEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 OVERNIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT...READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S BY MORNING. ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT...IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG. BOTH FWC AND LAMP GUIDANCE ARE INSISTENT ABOUT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY BECAUSE OF FOG. CAN UNDERSTAND THE TENDENCY FOR THIS NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT REASONING FOR FOG SOUTH OF THE FRONT NOT CLEAR. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF THE FRONT GENERALLY CONFINED TO MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH IS ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO COOL TO NEAR DEWPOINTS IN SOME AREAS. WILL ADD MENTION OF FOG TO MOST ZONES FOR TONIGHT. DYNAMICS WITH SHORTWAVE PASS EAST OF THE CWA BY 18Z SAT. CLOUD COVER REMAINS AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON DEVELOPING WEDGE. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE AND BETTER DYNAMICS PROMISE A GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT/MON MORN. .ATL...NONE. RAB .ATL...NONE ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 345 AM CST SAT FEB 12 2000 QUITE A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN WAS PAINTED 24 HRS AGO. STRONGER DYNAMICS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PROVIDE BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ACRS ZONE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES PLUMMETED TO BLO ZERO READINGS DURING THE EVENING OVER THE FRESH SNOW COVER FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WI. CLDS PUSHED IN A BIT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED FARTHER SOUTH...KEEPING TEMPS ABV ZERO. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN PREFERRED MODEL SINCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT LEANING TWD AVN/ETA SOLUTION SINCE ETA MUCH BETTER WITH UPPER MIDWEST PRECIP0 AFT 06Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS COMPACT S/W OVR SOUTH CENTRAL ND TIED INTO 90KT UPR JET SWEEPING SEWD ACRS SD. AS ANTICIPATED...UPPER FLOW HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF MULTIPLE S/W TROUGHS OVER WEST COAST. SOME CONCERN AS TO HOW FAR NORTH POTENT S/W TROUGH OVR CA/NV AREA WL HAVE AN AFFECT IN UPPER MIDWEST ON TNGT/SUN. BACK TO SHORT TERM...COMBINATION OF FORCING ASSOCD WITH ND S/W AND INCREASING ISENT LIFT AT 285 THETA WL RESULT IN EXPANDING AREA OF -SN ACRS CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI THIS AFTN. MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL ALTHOUGH NOT DEPICTED BY SFC DEWPTS. OAX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED ALMOST THREE TENTHS INCH PWAT AND PLENTY OF MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF WEST COAST S/W. 285 THETA SFC UPGLIDE FLOW INCREASES TO 25 TO 30KTS AS COND PRES DEFICITS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20MB. NGM EVEN MORE AGRESSIVE YET DOESN'T PAINT OUT AS MUCH PRECIP? IMPRESSIVE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PER LATEST RUC GUIDANCE OF -30 UNITS SLIDES INTO WRN ZFA THIS MRNG. WL MENTION 1 TO 3 INCHES PSBL IN NRN AREA BUT WL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR PSBL ADVY IN NORTHERN MN ZFA LTR THIS MRNG...FOR AMOUNTS GETTING CLOSE TO 4 INCHES. FOCUS SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS FOR TONIGHT AND SUN. ISENTROPIC LIFT REDEVELOPS OVER IA...POSSIBLY BRUSHING SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS AND 7H DEFORMATION AREA PASSES ACRS THIS AREA AS WELL. HENCE WL CONT WITH HIGH POPS PER COORD WITH FSD/ARX BUT AGAIN WL HOLD OFF ON ADVY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND GO WITH SPS. MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN TO SOUTH OF AREA. WEAKENING LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH REST OF AREA TNGT CONT THREAT FOR PATCHY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS LYR MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH. LEANED MORE TWD WARMER FAN GUIDANCE FOR TNGTS LOWS...OTHERWISE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. ALSO THANKS TO DLH...FGF...ABR FOR COORD. .MSP...NONE. KAVINSKY mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 300 PM CST FRI FEB 11 2000 YET ANOTHER VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST...THE TOUGHEST SO FAR THIS WEEK. DEVOTED HALF OF MY ATTENTION TO THIS EVENING'S SNOW...THE OTHER HALF TO VERY INTERESTING SCENARIO FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW FOR THIS EVENING PANNING OUT MUCH AS EXPECTED...EXCEPT MAYBE BEHIND BY A FEW HOURS. RUC AND ETA QPF FIELDS FIT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS VERY NICELY. UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT BOTH RUC AND ETA SHOW PLENTY OF UPWARD FORCING IN LAYER DIV-Q PRODUCTS TO KEEP PCPN GENERATION GOING THROUGH EVENING. FORTUNATELY...MUCH OF PCPN HAS GONE INTO SATURATING 850 MB LAYER...WHICH NEVER REALLY COMPLETELY SATURATES...OTRW WOULD HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FCST. WILL PAINT A 1-3" STRIPE BASICALLY ALG AND N OF I-70 WITH LESSER AMTS EITHER SIDE. UPWARD FORCING ENDS BY MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST AND 06-09Z TIME FRAME IN EAST. WILL TIME ACCORDINGLY. MAY END UP WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY. THIS IS PARAMOUNT TO SAT NIGHT FCST. IF SFC CAN WARM UP ENOUGH...THEN WAA PCPN HAS BETTER CHC OF BEING MAINLY LIQUID SAT NIGHT. TEMPS REALLY TOUGH CALL TMRW...ESPECIALLY WHEN TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL SNOW COVER. FOR NOW...WILL OPT FOR THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE BELOW THAT. POTENTIAL FOR SNOW COVER...AND PROBABLY PRETTY DECENT CI DECK ON TOP OF SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REALLY INHIBIT WARMING DESPITE STG WAA OFF THE DECK. BESIDES...SFC HIGH IS PRETTY STRONG WITH FAIRLY COLD AIR UP NORTH. NOT TO MENTION ERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS TMRW. SO...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL PAINT FAIRLY UGLY PICTURE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH WAA BEGINNING AFT 13/00Z AND GULF WATER ARRIVING AFT 13/06Z...WILL GO HIGH CHC POPS...MAYBE EVEN LIKELY FOR NRN ZONES FOR SAT NIGHT. EVAP COOLING WILL ENHANCE FREEZING OR FROZEN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. WILL BUCK GUIDANCE NUMBERS PRETTY HARD AGAIN ON SUNDAY IN THINKING THAT PCPN WILL STRONGLY INHIBIT TEMP CLIMB DESPITE STG WAA. PREFER ETA'S SRN TRACK OF SFC LOW...AND EVEN IT MAY BE A LITTLE FAR NORTH. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 60 AND 72 HR AVN SHOWING MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OK/AR LENDS CREDENCE TO FURTHER S TRACK OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW KC METRO TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARM SECTOR TO STAY ALL RAIN SUNDAY...BUT WITH THAT STRONG OF A BAROCLINIC BAND AROUND...WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WX FINALLY GOT ACTIVE AGAIN... THX FOR COORD TOP...DSM. .EAX... KS...SNOW ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING FOR ZONES KSZ025...KSZ102>105. MO...SNOW ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING FOR ZONES MOZ011>014... MOZ020>022...MOZ028>030...MOZ037>038. JM mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 135 AM EST SAT FEB 12 2000 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS POSSIBILITY OF STRONG CONVECTION TDA...AND TEMPS W/REMAINS OF WEDGE-RIDGE ON SUN. AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE W/THIS MORNING. THIS TSRA IS IN THE NOSE OF A STRONG THETA E AXIS AND IN THE HEART OF STRONG WAA ON THE I294 SFC ON THE ETA. THE AREA OF UPGLIDE ONLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CWA AS WE APPROACH 12Z...HELPED BY STRONG AGEO MOTION WITH A COUPLED JET. THE MAIN VORT...INTERESTINGLY...WL LAG THE BEST WAA AND H3 DYNAMICS BY A GOOD SIX HOURS. WET BULB ZERO AT FFC AT 00Z WAS ABOUT 8500 FEET... SO WE REALLY DO NOT NEED THE CAA ALOFT THE VORT WOULD IMPART. BY 18Z...AS THE VORT CROSSES THE CWA...MOISTURE IS STILL RATHER DEEP WITH LOCAL POP SCHEME GIVING ABOUT A 70 POP FOR THE AFTERNOON. UPGLIDE ALSO STILL CONTINUES...THOUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS WE LOSE THE AGEO COMPONENT INTRODUCED BY THE RETREATING COUPLED JET. THE QUESTION IS...HOW FAR S WL THE WEDGE RIDGE PUSH BY EARLY AFTN. 06Z SFC MAP SHOWS RISES OF 2 TO 3 MB OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...NOT AS HIGH AS I/D LIKE TO SEE TO PUSH RIDGE THOUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. STILL...THE ETA HAS MOST NON MTN AREAS IN ELY FLOW BY AFTN...AS THE RUC DOES BY 15Z. THUS...THREAT FOR STUFF ROOTED IN THE BNDRY LAYER IN THE EARLY AFTN NOT TOO HIGH. WL KEEP MENTION OF TSRA IN ALL ZONES TDA. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF SOME IN THE AFTN...PARTICULARLY NRN CWA. NOT SURE HOW TO WORD THAT YET...BUT WL AT LEAST START W/CAT POPS EVERYWHERE. MAY MENTION SOME W/LARGE HAIL IN THE SRN TIER OF ZONES AND MTNS. WE WON/T SCOUR OVERNIGHT...SO WHATEVER WE FALL TO BY LATE AFTN SHOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR LOWS. WL FOLLOW THE ETA SFC WET-BULBS FOR THIS...WHICH ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO RAFS. AS FOR P-TYPE PROBLEM. ETA 1000-850 THICKNESS NEVER FALL TO BELOW 1320 TDA...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT THAT. WHETHER WE WL SCOUR ON SUN IS A TOUGH CALL. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DIDN/T THINK SO AND WENT WELL BELOW MOS NUMBERS. H8 FLOW BECOMES QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE SW BY AFTN...AND EVEN THE ETA LOSES THE WEDGE RIDGE...ALBEIT LATE. THEN THERE IS THE PROBLEM OF A FEW SHOWERS IN WAA AHEAD OF NEXT...STRONG SHORT WAVE. WL GO COOLER THAN MOS...BUT A COUPLE CATS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS SHIFT. LOOKS LIKE A STRONG MCS SUN NGHT AND EARLY MON. WL PUT MENTION OF TSRA IN FIRST AND SECOND PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED AS A RESULT. PCPN MAY BE MOSTLY OVER MON IF AVN TIMING IS RIGHT...BUT WON/T GET THAT SPECIFIC ATTM. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS: AVL 46/36/55 823 CLT 48/38/52 922 GSP 50/40/53 823 .GSP...NONE. MCAVOY sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 745 PM EST FRI FEB 11 2000 A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF NC AT THIS TIME. LOCAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING SOME GOOD MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT...FROM AROUND AND SOUTH OF SHELBY AND GASTONIA TO EAST OF CHARLOTTE... SO I UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR AROUND THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. WATER VAPOR LOOPS...RUC AND MESO-ETA NOT REALLY SHOWING ANY UPPER FORCING TO HANG YOUR HAT ON WITH THIS...SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT IT TO GET TO STRONG. DID SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MODERATELY STEEP... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH MUST BE GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO DEVELOP THESE STORMS. .GSP...NONE. RBN sc SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 316 AM CST SAT FEB 12 2000 SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF IAH AT 08Z IS SEPARATING COOLER DRIER AIR TO ITS NORTH AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR TO ITS SOUTH. LATEST MESO-ETA AND RUC BRING THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. AFTER SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE. THE SYSTEM THAT INITIATES THE STORM...A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA...WILL RACE EASTWARD ALONG THE FAST ZONAL FLOW PRESENT ACROSS THE U.S. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL OPEN UP THE GULF. INSTABILITIES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW AS PRECIP WATER VALUES RISE TO A 1.20 TO 1.40 RANGE...AN UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN...AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS BEGIN TO INCREASE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA WHERE HIGHEST INSTABILITIES WILL EXIST. PREFER THE FASTER AVN SOLUTION OF ENDING THE CONVECTION AND DECREASING THE CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN PLACED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA ON SPC'S DAY2 OUTLOOK. PRESENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...SO WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE IN THE ZONES AT THIS TIME. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE AROUND FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. FOR TEMPS...LEANED TOWARD THE AVN WHICH REFLECTS SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS. 42/35/47 .HGX...NONE CLL ET 068/060 076/045 080 42245 IAH EC 073/062 077/048 081 42234 GLS EE 069/063 073/056 075 42223 tx DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 310 AM CST SAT FEB 12 2000 SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW DIGGING TROF ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHING INLAND OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WITH AN ABSENCE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL LIKELY SOAR ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGH TEMP FOR BRO ON SUNDAY IS 89. WILL WAIT ON MENTIONING ANY RECORD BREAKING TEMPS IN THE ZONES. WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT OR EVEN TOMORROW'S MIDNIGHT TO SEE IF SCENARIO STILL LOOKS GOOD. AS FAR AS THE WEATHER FOR TODAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SAG A LITTLE BIT FURTHER SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LATEST 10KM WORKSTATION ETA AND RUC MODEL RUNS SHOWING THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA JUST SOUTH OF KINGSVILLE. THE BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE RETREATING TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF. TIMESECTIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS WELL AS SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OTHER THAN THIS MOISTURE...PW VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW WHILE THE CAPPING INVERSION IN THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAINS VERY STRONG. THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOWS A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO HIT THIS WEEK. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MARINE...NO FLAGS EXPECTED. 10KM ETA SHOWS WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE TODAY ALTHOUGH WIND DIRECTION STARTS SOUTH AND BY AFTERNOON BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. BRO BU 082/068 088/060 082 0/0/0/0 MFE BU 087/068 092/058 085 0/0/0/0 RGC BU 089/063 095/055 088 0/0/0/0 SPI BU 080/065 083/062 080 0/0/0/0 69 INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO .BRO...NONE. tx SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 840 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2000 COLD FRONT BETWEEN CXO AND UTS. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT. SLIGHT PRES RISES OVER N TEXAS WILL HELP THE FRONT SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK. DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD. IR LOOP INDICATE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS CWFA. FOG PRODUCT (OUTSIDE OF MID/HI LEVEL CLOUD COVER) INDICATE CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER NW ZONES. WILL UPDATE ZONES W/1ST PERIOD ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD COVER AND MIN TEMPS. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF 1ST PERIOD POPS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO CWF TONIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY (WILL ALSO TAKE OFF MENTION OF ISOLATED SHRA). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE ON TRACK. 37/45 .HGX...NONE CLL EE 049/069 061/075 048 -24 IAH EE 060/073 062/077 050 022 GLS EE 063/069 063/072 057 022 tx DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 745 PM CST FRI FEB 11 2000 DRY PATTERN SETTING UP FOR RAIN-STARVED DEEP S TX. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE MUCH OF THE SRN CONUS WITH THE ABSENCE OF LIFTING MECHANISMS THRU THE FCST PD AND EXTENDED. PAC UPPER LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SRN CA COAST FILLS QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL AND IS ABSORBED IN THE ZONAL PATTERN QUICKLY. UPPER RIDGING PREDOMINATES WITH A SERIES OF SFC LOW TREKKING ACROSS THE PLAINS...TIGHTENING THE PGF PERIODICALLY FM THE PREDOMINANT BERMUDA RIDGING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DECREASE ACCORDINGLY WITH LITTLE RAIN ON THE HORIZON. WINDS HAVE FINALLY DECREASED TO UNDER 10 MPH NOW AND RUC PROGS 5 KT INLAND BY 09Z. FG FORMATION PROBABLE IF WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ...AS DWPTS STAY NEAR 60 INLAND AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. BOY020 INDICATES THAT LITTLE MIXING WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FG WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WL ADD THIS MENTION IN THE CWFBRO. WILL REWORD 1ST PD IN ZFPBRO AND TWEEK CWFBRO TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE VSBY RESTRICTION FM FG. SYN...PHILO 58/HMT...ABBOTT INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO .BRO...NONE. tx TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1151 AM CST FRI FEB 11 2000 THE BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS WAS BEGINNING TO ERODE QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING SIMILAR TO THE RUC FORECAST. AS A RESULT...UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. CB tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1120 AM EST SAT FEB 12 2000 SYNOPTIC...UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING FOG. SURFACE ANALYSIS...SATELLITE DATA... SHOWED A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA ALONG A FRONT WHICH APPEARED TO BE ALMOST STATIONARY. THE MESO ETA AND RUC MOVES THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPT FOR REMOVAL OF MORNING FOG CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. .JAX... GA...NONE. FL...NONE. SCOTT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 945 AM CST SAT FEB 12 2000 OVERCAST CONDITIONS COVER MY ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT FORECAST READING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR TODAY. LATEST RUC DATA SUGGESTS THAT STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SO WILL WORD FCST AS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. RUC POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS MAY HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME CLEARING OUT ACROSS MY SOUTHERN HALF OR CLOSER TO THE FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A KJAN...KPOE LINE. MAY WORD THESE SECTIONS AS DECREASING CLOUDINESS. TEMPS OF COURSE ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER AND APPEAR O.K. AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE TO UPDATE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPS BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE TEMP FORECAST AS IS. 13 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1140 AM EST SAT FEB 12 2000 FCST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS DEVELOPING SNOW IN WRN FA SFC ANALYSIS AT 15Z SHOWS A WM FRNT EXTENDING FM AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVR WRN SD EWRD INTO SRN MN. WIDE AREA OF LGT SN SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDING FRM DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL WI...YET MANY RETURNS INTO WI ONLY VIRGA AS ONLY METARS INTO EXTREME WRN WI ARE REPORTING PRECIP...KASX AND KSUW...HOWEVER JUST W/IN LAST 15 MINS 4SM VSBY AND FEW001 AT IWD. FCST FOCUSES ON HOW MUCH DRYING WL TAKE PLACE BEFORE LGT SN COMMENCES. INTERPOLATION USING RUC/MESOETA FCST SOUNDINGS...MESOETA LLEVEL RH FIELDS...AND ETA TIME SECTIONS WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS WOULD BRING SN INTO CMX IN THE 20Z TO 23Z CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON WL GENERALLY BE LIGHT CONSIDERING SFC OBS 1HR PRECIP READINGS IN MN...WHERE AMOUNTS THIS MORNING SINCE SN BEGAN AROUND 14Z ARE IN THE .01 TO .02 RANGE. CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK AS EXTREME WRN UPR MI HAS AN INCH OR LESS AND THAT SEEMS FEASIBLE IN THIS VRY DRY ATMOS. ELSEWHERE LGT SN SHOULD BEGIN BY EVENING OVR REST OF CNTRAL UP AS INTERPOLATION OF FCST SOUNDINGS FOR WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY SNOWING AND TIME SECTIONS WOULD PRODUCE SN IN MQT AND IMT AFTER 22Z. TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING NICELY AFTER MINUS TEENS AND IN SOME PLACES MINUS 20S NIGHT ACROSS THE U.P. WL SHADE MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN CNTRAL U.P. AS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS YET TO TIGHTEN OVR MUCH OF FCST AREA AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH LENDING A HAND TO PROHIBITING MAX DAYTIME MIXING. .MQT...NONE. JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 545 AM EST SAT FEB 12 2000 FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE DEAL WITH DVLPG -SN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHD OF SHRTWV OVR THE WRN DKTAS...AND THEN LIGHT LES IN BACKING NE FLOW BEHIND ASSOC FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUN. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW CNTRD OVR SW SD WITH A WRM FNT EXTENDING ALG SD/NE BDR. NATIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SWATH OF -SN IN ERN ND/WRN MN IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NE OF SFC LOW AND NORTH OF WRM FNT. SFC OBS INDICATING VSBYS OCCASIONALLY DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS IN THIS AREA OF -SN. LATEST RUC IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z ETA/NGM OUT TO 18Z...SHOWING SHRTWV SHEARING OUT AND WKNG IT IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALF AS IT MOVES JUST SW UPR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTENING OF MID LVLS OVR WRN UPR THIS AFT IN 280-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHD OF SHRTWV. YET...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SATURATION WL BE SLOW TO REACH SFC IN VERY DRY AMS RESIDING OVR UPR. THUS...EXPECT PCPN TO BEGIN LATE AFT WEST HALF AND TOWARD EVNG EAST HALF. DRY AIR WILL LIMIT ACCUMS TODAY TO LESS THAN INCH WEST TO A DUSTING EAST. MODEL SNDGS SHOW AMS SATURATING LATER THIS EVNG AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AHD OF SHEARED OUT VORT. MODEL MIXR OF 1-1.5 G/KG ADVECTING INTO AREA WOULD INDICATE 1-2 INCHES MAX IN NORTH AND 1-3 INCHES SOUTH TONIGHT. BACKING FLOW TO NE AND TRANSITION TO ISENTROPIC DESCENT BEHIND CDFNT WL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO TAPER SYSTEM SNOW TO FLURRIES FM 06Z-12Z. CONTINUED NE CBL FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ON SUN ALG WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -15 TO -17C WILL BRING SCT LES TO KEW-CMX AND ALGER-LUCE GRPS WITH LIKELY POPS FOR FAVORED FETCH ZONES MQT-BARAGA. GIVEN RELATIVELY COLD 850 MB TEMPS AND ONSHORE NE FLOW SUN INTO SUN NIGHT WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC CLDS FOR ALL ZONES AND LWRD SUN TEMPS SLIGHTLY (15 TO 20) IN LINE WITH FCST GUIDANCE. FWC TEMPS LOOKED A BIT ON COOL SIDE TONIGHT WITH EXPECTED CLDS IN WAA AHD OF INCOMING PLAINS SHRTWV...SO WENT CLOSER TO FAN. .MQT...NONE. VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1015 AM EST SAT FEB 12 2000 NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED BY GOING PRECIP EVENT ATTM AS INIT BATCH OF MAINLY MIXED SNOW/SLEET HAS ALRDY SHOT EAST WITH ONLY THE UPR SUPPORT LEFT FOR THE AFTN. BIGGEST CONCERN IS WHERE OR IF TO CONT ADVSRYS GIVEN MAJ OF SIG PRECIP ATTM PASSING SOUTH WHILE RUC/MESO ETA CONT TO PRODUCE SOME QPF ESPCLY BLUE RDG EWD. WITH MAINLY -RA SOUTH/WEST OF THE NRV PLAN TO TRIM ADVSRYS THERE AS MOST PRECIP BEGINS TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTN. ELSW...ALTHOUGH AMTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT MAY GO AHEAD AND CONT ADVSRYS...ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE NEWD SINCE ALRDY ONGOING...AND LIKELYHOOD OF DEEPER CAA/RH THIS AFTN AS SFC DVLPMNT TRANSFERS TO THE COAST. NRV REGION LOOKS QUITE DOUBTFUL IN GETTING ADVSRY CRIT ESPCLY AFTER NOON GIVEN APCHG DRY SLOT AND TSRA PASSING SOUTH. THUS WILL LKLY CUT AMOUNTS TO NRV AREA AND DROP ADVSRY FOR THE AFTN AS WELL. OTRW...PLAN TO CONT ALONG LINES OF GOING FCST WITH -SN PARTS OF VA/SE WVA BUT CUT SNOW AMTS TO ONLY AN INCH OR TWO MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS. FAR SE ZONES LOOK TO HAVE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH PTNL FOR MORE MIX THERE GIVEN CORE OF SECOND WAVE COMING THROUGH. GOING TEMPS GNRLY ON TRACK WITH LITTLE RISES EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. THANKS FOR COORD LWX/AKQ/RAH. .RNK VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON VAZ018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WVZ042>045. NC...NONE. JH va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 945 AM EST SAT FEB 12 2000 RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT SUGGEST LINE DIVIDING SNOW FROM SLEET AND RAIN BASICALLY FROM AROUND EASTVILLE WEST TO NEWPORT NEWS...WEST SOUTHWEST TO AROUND PETERSBURG. CALLS AROUND THE SNOW AREA INDICATE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR. RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPS LAST 24 HOURS APPARENTLY LEADING TO SOME MELTING OF SNOW. RADAR COMPOSITES INDICATE ONE AREA OF PRECIP NOW ENDING OVER WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP WAITING IN THE WINGS...NOW ENTERING SW VA. WV IMAGERY TIES THIS SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP TO IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE. LOOKING AT MESOETA AND RUC...LOOKS LIKE 850 ZERO LINE WORKING WELL AS A RAIN-SLEET VERSUS SNOW LINE. THIS LINE FLUCTUATES SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DOESNT MOVE MUCH...MAYBE A LITTLE SWD OVER WRN PORTIONS OF CWA...MAYBE A LITTLE NWD OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. MODEL UVVS VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE...MUCH GREATER THAN WITH THIS MORNINGS WAA. STILL THINK FCAST SNOW AMOUNTS IN ADVISORY AREA REACHABLE WITH SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP...AS QUICK BURST OF SNOW COULD LAY DOWN QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WET SNOW JUST NORTH OF RAIN/SNOW LINE... ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. FAR NRN COUNTIES...LOOKING MORE LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES TOPS. S OF CURRENT RAIN/SNOW LINE...SHOULD SEE RAIN AND SOME SLEET...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. MARINE...WL PROBABLY KEEP HEADLINES AS IS BASED ON LATEST OBS. .AKQ...WINTER WX ADVISORY YORK CO INCL WILLIAMSBURG THRU PTB/DINWIDDIE CO TO LUNENBURG CO AND ALL POINTS N. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY. REILLY va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 300 AM EST SAT FEB 12 2000 MODELS INTLZ PRETTY WELL AT 00Z AS FAR AS 850 TEMPS AND LOCATION OF JET AND STRONGEST UVV...AND BLV ETA IS HANDLING AREA OF DYNAMICS BETTER SO FAR THRU 06Z WITH FASTER MOVEMENT...ALTHO STILL NOT QUITE FAST ENUF LOOKING AT LASTEST RADAR. COLD DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN AT LOW LEVELS FROM THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS GRT LAKES AND WEDGE IS CERTAINLY DEVELOPING NOW EAST OF THE BLUE RDG. DEW PTS AND TEMPS STILL VERY WARM ACROSS SOUTH-CNTRL VA AND NW NC AND WITH RAIN MVG IN ALREADY ACROSS NW NC...BLV PRECIP IS GENERALLY ARRIVING WELL BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR FILTERS IN. MDL SNDGS...INCLUDING THE RUC...CONTINUE TO INDICATE PROFILES COLD ENUF FOR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS NRN TWO THIRDS OF CWA...ALTHOUGH GIVEN SFC TEMPS AND DEW PTS IT WILL LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME OF THE AREA. ONCE GOOD DYNAMICS ARRIVES SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THEN POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMICALLY COOLED COLUMN INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AND ALL BUT NC WILL SEE PERIODS OF WET SNOW. SOME WEAK EVIDENCE IN MDL X-SECTIONS FOR CSI-SUPPORTED BANDING OR EVEN SOME UPRIGHT CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH...BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT AND HARD TO TELL WHERE BANDS MAY SET UP. WILL CONSIDER ADDING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO SOUTHSIDE VA COUNTIES AS WELL AS FAR SW VA...BUT BLV THEY WILL START OUT AS JUST RAIN FOR QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE CHANGING OVER...SO WILL LEAVE LESS THAN TWO INCHES. WILL ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR INCREASES IN AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH AS HEAVIER BANDS MAY SET UP FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP UNDER WARNING CRITERIA BECAUSE LOCATION OF HEAVIER BANDS STILL UNKNOWN AND ALSO MAY NEVER SET UP. MY REASONS FOR NOT GOING WITH AMOUNTS OVER 5 OR 6 INCHES ARE THAT PRECIP MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THAN PREVIOUS THINKING...RNK 06Z SNDG SHOWS WE'VE WARMED TO +5 AT 850 WHICH IS WARMER THAN MDL FCSTS...STRONG DYNAMICS WILL MOVE THRU RATHER FAST...SNOW TO LQD RATIO WILL BE LOW...AND WARM GROUND WILL DELAY START OF STICKING. ETA QPF IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN LAST RUN THOUGH AND SO I'LL AT LEAST BUMP UP AMOUNTS A BIT. WILL LET DAY SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP AS STRONG DYNAMICS REACHES CWA AND UPGRADE TO WARNING IF NECESS. MOS POPS A LTL HIER FOR TONITE AND THEN FAR WEST LATE SUNDAY AS NEXT POTENT SYSTEM MOVES IN QUICKLY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LATE AFTER SHWRS FOR WRN ZONES AND MAY ADD A 30 POP FOR LGT FRZG RAIN OR RAIN OVERNITE TONIGHT FOR UPSLOPE MSTR. NOT MUCH LOOK AT EXTENDED SO NO PLANNED CHANGES AT THIS TIME. .RNK VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SATURDAY VAZ032>035-045>047. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WVZ042>045. NC...NONE. KEIGHTON va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1240 PM EST SAT FEB 12 2000 STRATO-CU DECK HAS DEVELOPED AROUND METRO DETROIT. RUC PROGS 925 MB RH FIELD TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH DECK IN PLACE...NOT SURE IT WILL DISSIPATE THAT QUICKLY. DECK ADVECTING NORTH IN LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW. WILL UPDATE ALL ZONES FROM PTK...OZW...MTC SOUTH.../EX LENAWEE/ TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...AND FNT PHN TO PARTLY SUNNY. .DTX...NONE. OKEEFE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 305 PM EST SAT FEB 12 2000 .CURRENTLY... UPPR LVL DIST AND AREA OF UPPR DIVG...ALONG WITH MID/UPPR DRYING... MOVG INTO CWA. SFC FNT ACRS S CENT CWA...WITH WEDGE TO THE NORTH OF IT. TEMP CONTRAST FROM L70S S CST TO NR 40 NR NC BORDER. INTERACTION OF ABV PRODUCING SCT SH/TSRA...PUSHING TO THE EAST. .SHORT TERM... RUC CONT MOVG UPPR VORT ACRS LATE THIS AFT TO NR THE CST THIS EVE. N GA LOW TO DISSIPATE WHILE NEW LOW TO FORM OFFSHORE. WEDGE TO PUSH SOUTH ACRS CWA...AND HANG IN OVRNT. QUESTION INVOLVES WEDGE STATUS SUN. MDLS MV HIGH CENTER EAST OFFSHR NEW ENG...AND INCR LOW LVL S/SW WINDS CONSIDERABLY DURG THE DAY. ETA SUGGESTS WEDGE COULD BREAK ACRS THE SOUTH CWA...AND LOOKS REASONABLE. WEDGES USUALLY HANG TOUGH...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVR THE NORTH. MDLS BRING WEAK VORT ACRS SUN WITH SOME ISEN LIFT...WILL GO 20 POPS FOR -RA. TEMPS TOUGH SUN AND DEPENDENT ON WEDGE BREAKING. WILL SPLIT CWA THREE WAYS AND UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN VARYING DEGREES. NEXT UPPER SYS TO MV INTO MID MISS AND OHIO VLLYS SUN NT/MON...TO PRODUCE STG SFC LOW PRESS AREA. MDLS SHOW INCR IN SFC PRESS GRAD FOR US SUN NT...WITH STG SW 850 JET 50 TO 70 KTS DEVLPNG. IF WEDGE DOESNT ERODE BY SUN AFTN...IT WILL DO SO SUN NT...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS. SPC HAS MDT RISK SVR ALA/MISS UP TO 12Z MON. MDLS BRING FNT THRU MON. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH MDL CONSENSUS. TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ABOUT SVR IN THE ZFP FOR LATE SUN NT/MON...BUT WILL MENTION TSRA. MDLS ARE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR WINDY CONDITIONS MON...BUT WILL JUST GO WITH BREEZY WORDING FOR NOW SINCE IT IS FOURTH PERIOD. .EXTENDED... MDLS SUGGEST FAIR WX BEHIND FRONT FOR TUE/WED...WITH WEAK DRY FRONT COMING THRU WED NT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS IN FOR THU. PRELIM CCF CAE CE 43/58/56/70 1354 AGS EE 46/64/54/71 1354 .CAE...NONE. sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 955 AM CST SAT FEB 12 2000 DEPTH OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION MORE PRONOUNCED THAT EARLIER THOUGHT. SO NEED TO BEEF UP CLOUD WORDING ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF TODAY. MOISTURE DEPICTION ON THE 12Z DRT RAOB AND 14Z RUC SUPPORT ABOVE THINKING. WE/LL ALSO LOWER TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL REACH THE BIG COUNTRY BY 2 PM. .SJT...NONE. 17 tx