SOUTHEAST IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID 900 AM MDT THU FEB 10 2000 FCST/A SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM MAKING FOR DIFFICULT FCST (LOW CONFIDENCE).... WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING SPINNING 5H LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST (TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE THAN YESTERDAY MODELS INDICATED). OLD E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE STATIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN ID/OR BEGINNING TO SHIFT WITH PORTION OVER OR LIFTING NORTH AND SECTION OVER EASTERN ID DRIFTING SOUTH. MESOETA/RUC MODELS BOTH DEPICTING A 5H S/WV TROF SLIDING SE ACROSS E ID THIS MORNING. ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS WAVE A SWATH OF SHOWERS..A FEW HEAVY...HAVE BEEN TRACKING THRU SOUTHERN FCST/A. IN THE SHORT TERM...S/WV TROF AND BAROCLINIC BNDRY WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF FCST/A THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRYING AND NVA REPLACING PVA ACROSS E ID THIS AFTN. OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SLIDE NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH LOW POPS EXPECTED AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. NEW ETA RUN SHOWS NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATING FCST/A AFTER TONIGHT. WINTHER BYI 045/034/044/033 223 .KSFX WSR-88D...OPERATIONAL...VCP 21. .PIH...NONE. PIH EE 043/032 043/032 045 12223 IDA EE 038/027 037/026 039 12123 id AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1110 PM EST THU FEB 10 2000 03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OHIO RIVER AND DOWN INTO ARKANSAS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SEEN ON RADAR. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WORKING PRIMARILY WITH SFC CONVERGENCE AS ITS LIFT PRODUCER AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS STRUNG OUT. EAST OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO PRETTY LOW AND THAT WILL HINDER ANY SHOWERS THAT GET IN HERE INITIALLY. THE LATEST RUC AND MESOETA ARE NOT TOO PROMISING FOR AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN THIS AS A MEDIUM POP/LOW AMOUNT EVENT. IN THE LATER PERIODS IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE AVN BACKS OFF ITS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL MERGE AS SUGGESTED BY THE AVN CREATING A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER KENTUCKY AT 250 MB LEADING TO OUTRAGEOUS LIFT. THE OTHER MODELS HAVE MUCH WEAKER SOLUTIONS AND ACTUAL DOWNWARD MOTION FOR THE SAME PERIOD. WHILE THE ETA ACHIEVES THIS BY KEEPING THE STREAMS SEPARATE THE NGM HAS THE SOUTHERN MUCH STRONGER PLACING EAST KENTUCKY IN THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF ITS JET STREAK SUPPRESSING ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA. THE NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO EXAMINE THE MODELS CLOSELY TO PICK WHICH OF THESE POLARIZED SCENARIOS WILL OCCUR. IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE...WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO BETTER REFLECT OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS...OUT SHORTLY. .JKL...NONE. GREIF ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1130 AM CST THU FEB 10 2000 HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW HAS MOVED INTO METRO AREA AND WRN WI. LATEST RUC MODEL TRANSLATES MOISTURE UPWARD MOTION EAST OF AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. BAROCLINIC BAND SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL MN AND MARKS THE EDGE OF SNOW IN NRN PORTIONS. FORECAST REFLECTS DECREASING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES. .MSP...NONE. SCOTT mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 930 PM CST THU FEB 10 2000 IMPRESSIVE MID-LVL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN OK/AR AT THIS TIME AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP PER SATELLITE. SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED OVER EXTREME SW OKLAHOMA WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SRN ARKANSAS TO COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI. ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI BACK INTO N-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH NRN ARKANSAS AND SE MISSOURI. A THIN SLIVER OF >50 DEG F DEW PTS WAS RIDING UP THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA INTO SRN ILLINOIS AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. EVENING MESO- ETA/RUC MODELS HAD POSITION OF FRONT "OK"...BUT WERE A LITTLE DEEP WITH PRESSURES AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT. SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE SHEARING/WEAKENING SOME ON SATELLITE AND OUTRUNNING THE SURFACE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN NE MISSISSIPPI AND NRN ALABAMA ONLY IN THE LOW 40S DEG F. A CHECK OF 00Z SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA SHOW A SOLID 2-4 DEG C CAP NEAR 800 MB WITH ALOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE. AS PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH SAGS INTO NRN MISSISSIPPI AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MID-LVL SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82 DURING THE 06-12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WITH DRY AIR IN MID-LVLS...HAIL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF ANY STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW CONSIDERING DECENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...LACK OF MOISTURE AND SHEARING OF SHORTWAVE NOTED PREVIOUSLY. CALLS TO SURROUNDING OFFICES TO MY NORTH AGREE AND FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT ANY SEVERE WORDING. APPRECIATE THE COORDINATION MEM/LIT. WINDS...TEMPS AND CLOUDS IN ZONES STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART AND WILL LEAVE AS IS. .JAN... MS...NONE. AR...NONE. LA...NONE. 05 ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1005 AM EST THU FEB 10 2000 ...SINCE MHX HAS PLANNED TO DROP SCA, WILL FOLLOW SUIT FOR NRN WATERS... STRONG LO OFF THE CAROLINA CST TO LOSE ITS IMPACT ON THE CWFA THIS AFTN AS HI PRES BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF CST. PLENTY OF SUN OVER AREA ATTM BUT SAT PIX SHOW CI W/ NEXT S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE W. 12Z SOUNDINGS RATHER DRY SO AIRMASS ALF WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN. WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING. FCST MAX TEMPS FROM RAOBS, LO-LVL THICKNESS SCHEMES & LAMP GUIDANCE GIVE HI TEMPS ARND 70 FOR ALL BUT GRAND STRAND BEACHES. WILL RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR APPROPRIATE AREAS. CWF: CONDITIONS NOW BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 41004 SO WILL LOWER ADVY FOR SC WATERS. BORDERLINE 10M WINDS/SEAS AT FPSN7 SO WILL LEAVE UP FOR NRN WATERS ONE MORE FCST. FCST TRENDS LOOK GOOD AS PER 12Z RUC & 06Z MESO-ETA. .ILM...NONE. LGE nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 950 AM EST THU FEB 10 2000 STRONG LO OFF THE CAROLINA CST TO LOSE ITS IMPACT ON THE CWFA THIS AFTN AS HI PRES BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF CST. PLENTY OF SUN OVER AREA ATTM BUT SAT PIX SHOW CI W/ NEXT S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE W. 12Z SOUNDINGS RATHER DRY SO AIRMASS ALF WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN. WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING. FCST MAX TEMPS FROM RAOBS, LO-LVL THICKNESS SCHEMES & LAMP GUIDANCE GIVE HI TEMPS ARND 70 FOR ALL BUT GRAND STRAND BEACHES. WILL RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR APPROPRIATE AREAS. CWF: CONDITIONS NOW BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 41004 SO WILL LOWER ADVY FOR SC WATERS. BORDERLINE 10M WINDS/SEAS AT FPSN7 SO WILL LEAVE UP FOR NRN WATERS ONE MORE FCST. FCST TRENDS LOOK GOOD AS PER 12Z RUC & 06Z MESO-ETA. .ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC. LGE nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 935 PM CST THU FEB 10 2000 UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT. AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN NEW ZONE GROUPINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECTING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. RUC INDICATES THIS AREA OF VERTICAL MOTION WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OUT OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY 3-4 AM. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES. THIS COULD BE THE INFLUENCE OF SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM LIGHT PRECIP FALLING JUST TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE PRECIP AREA WHICH MAY BE ADDING TO THE NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW. MENTIONED STRONGER WINDS IN THAT AREA DIMINISHING AFTER THE PRECIP MOVES ON BY. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK OKAY. ALL WINDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH COME AROUND TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS THERE. FCSTID=33/DLF .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 940 AM EST THU FEB 10 2000 RUC AT 18Z SHOWS CONTD DRY AIR OVER AREA. MOISTURE FM THE GLF IS CUT OFF WITH HI PRE CENTERED IN ERN GLFMEX. ALSO 12Z FFC SOUNDING IS VERY DRY. BUT THERE ARE MID AND ESPCLY HI CLDS OVR GA MOVG EWD THRU WK UPPR RIDGE. WILL LOOK AT 15Z SAT VISIBLE BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER TO INTRODUCE SOME CLDS THIS AFTN...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY. 850 WIND/TEMPS PATTERN SHOWS GOOD WARM ADV AS SWLY FLOW BECOMES EST BY LATE AFTN. BUT SINCE WE'RE COMING OFF OF GOOD RAD NIGHT WITH EARLY MORN MINS IN THE 30S...BELIEVE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70 STILL LOOK GOOD FM N TO S THRU THE CWA FOR AFTN MAX. .CAE...NONE. BLP sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 345 PM CST THU FEB 10 2000 ...SAME AS PREVIOUS...BUT WITH EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INCLUDE -SN EXITING TO SE...CLOUD AMOUNT...AND LOW TEMPS. ABR 88D SHOWS AREA OF -SN MOSTLY SW THROUGH SE OF ABR AND MOVING SE. SAT LOOP SHOWS SOME GOOD BREAKS IN CLOUDS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER ND...BUT NO DRAMATIC CLEARING TREND NOTED AS OF THIS TIME. NO FURTHER REPORTS OF PRECIP SEEN IN UPSTREAM OBS EXCEPT FOR SOME -SN AT BHK AND MLS IN EASTERN MT. MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STEADILY BUILDING IN FROM THE NW...WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WELL...SO WINDS GRADUALLY ON THE DECREASE. WILL END -SN EARLY THIS EVENING FAR SE COUNTIES...CARRY A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS EVE CENTRAL PORTION OF AREA...AND CHACE FLURRIES THROUGH THE NIGHT OUT WEST...BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF -SN AREA ON RADAR...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS. ETA AND RUC SHOW A PRONOUNCED TENDENCY FOR DRYING AT 925 MB THIS EVENING IN EAST...BUT KEEP LOW LEVEL RH AROUND 80 PERCENT OR MORE WESTERN 1/2 OF AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT...AND WILL HINGE MOSTLY ON WHICH AREAS CLEAR OUT FIRST...IF AT ALL. LINE OF THINKING IS THAT NE AREA WILL CLEAR FIRST BASED ON L/L RH PROGS...THEN N CENTRAL...BUT WEST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SO...WITH NEW SNOW COVER MOST AREAS...ALBEIT GENERALLY LIGHT...AND CAA WITH N WINDS...AND LOWERING THICKNESS VALUES...WENT COLDEST IN NE AND LESS COLD WEST. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY GOOD DAY WITH SFC HIGH SETTLING IN OVER AREA...BUT COLD. ETA HINTS AT KEEPING IN SOME MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY MID LEVELS...BUT WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW AVN WHICH IS DRIER AND THUS GIVE AN OPTIMISTIC MOSTLY SUNNY FCST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A SFC LOW OVER WY BY SAT EVE...IN ADVANCE OF H5 S/W. ALL MODELS ALSO DEVELOP DEEP RH OVER W SD TO EAST OF THIS LOW AND INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF LIFT...THEN SPREAD IT EASTWARD ON SAT. ALL MODELS ALSO SHOW DECENT 7H Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. WITH SUCH GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WILL INTRODUCE 40 PERCENT POP FOR -SN IN WEST BY LATE FRI NIGHT...AND ACROSS ENTIRE AREA FOR SAT. THIS IS A GOOD STARTING POINT WHICH FOLLOWING SHIFTS CAN BUILD ON IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TREND. GUIDANCE TEMPS REASONABLY CLOSE...BUT WILL GENERALLY UNDERCUT BY 5-10 DEGREES DUE TO SNOW COVER. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FCST AND GUIDANCE GREATEST IN EAST WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. FRI AND SAT...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND WITH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BELOW GUIDANCE. ...EXTENDED DISCUSSION... ALL MDLS (ECMWF, MRF, NOGAPS, CANADIAN, UKMET) HAD SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE SUN-TUE PERIOD BUT WERE BASICALLY SIMILAR WITH THE LARGER FEATURES. OVERALL...SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM AND FAST MOVING S/WS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM DIVING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE A GOOD FOCUS FOR OVERRUNNING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS S/WS MOVE ON BY. THE MDLS ARE ALL SHOWING SOME S/W ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUN AND MON AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE WEATHER. LATE MON THROUGH TUES...ALL OF THE MDLS ARE CLOSE WITH MOVING A STRONG PACIFIC S/W ACROSS THE C ROCKIES AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS NEB. WITH ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH...A GOOD WAA SITUATION COULD SET UP. THEREFORE...WILL PUT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR TUESDAY. WILL TREND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FMR GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. .ABR...NONE. LORENS/MOHR sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 930 PM EST THU FEB 10 2000 SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES IN ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STAYS WELL WEST OF MRX OVERNIGHT. SOME WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ...ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW END CHC POPS STILL LOOK GOOD DESPITE LATEST RUC FAVORING PRECIP VCNTY NORTHERN SURFACE LOW (OH). WILL BUMP UP WESTERN TEMPS CONSIDERING CURRENT TEMPS ...SOUTHWEST FLOW AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. SON tn EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON 900 AM PST THU FEB 10 2000 LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FIRST PERIOD CONCERNS. THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE GEG/COE AREAS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES DOWN DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE. POTENT SYSTEM MOVING INTO CNTRL CA THIS MORNING WILL BEAR WATCHING IN CASE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/DYNAMICS GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT... HOWEVER THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY. THE 15Z RUC KEEPS THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS OVER B.C. TO OUR NORTH WHILE IT HINTS AT SOME SEEPAGE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ID PANHANDLE. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS...LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING NICELY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. AWH/RM ...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS... GEG 038/022/035 001 CQV 039/021/036 111 S86 036/018/031 111 COE 037/020/033 001 WWP 036/020/034 012 LWS 046/033/043 022 MOS 040/026/036 EAT 039/025/037 011 .GEG...NONE. wa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 900 PM CST THU FEB 10 2000 LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS N AR...SE OK AND INTO N AND CENTRAL TX. WEAK LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS INDICATED NEAR SPS...AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING LITTLE. 00Z RUC AND THE FIRST FEW BITS OF THE 00Z ETA SHOW THE TROF MOVING A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING NEAR PRX BY 12Z AND SHV AROUND 18Z. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL NEED TO UPDATE THE ZONES TO RAISE MINS... ESP FOR THE NWRN COUNTIES. WILL ALSO NEED TO ADJUST SOME WORDING. 05 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 246 AM CST FRI FEB 11 2000 CHALLENGE WILL BE TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY...TEMPS SATURDAY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A BAND OF HIGH RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN 3 COUNTIES OF ZONES (CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER.) PATTERN INDICATIVE OF CSI. AS OF 230 AM CST SNOW AMOUNTS WERE HEAVIEST IN CHASE COUNTY WHERE THEY HAD 5 INCHES...NO REPORT FROM HAYES... PERKINS WITH 2 INCHES AND KEITH HAS ONE INCH. WILL GO WITH A HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR CHASE AND HAYES. WILL KEEP SNOW ADVZY GOING FOR PERKINS AND FRONTIER FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE KEITH AND DEUEL AS WELL. FAVORING THE ETA SOLUTION AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE VERIFIED THIS EVENT BEST SO FAR KEEPING WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST TRACK OF SNOW. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELDS IN ETA ALSO OUTLINE SNOW AREA OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WELL WHEREAS NGM AND AVN DON'T. LOOKED AT TIME SECTIONS TO SEE WHICH MODEL MIGHT HAVE INDICATED PRESENT FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH STRATUS DECK IN VTN...AND NONE LOOK GREAT. WOULD HAVE TO SAY AVN IS THE FARTHEST OFF HOWEVER... WITH NGM/ETA AT LEAST HINTING AT THE FLURRIES. 06Z RUC SHOWING SAME PROBLEMS AS AVN/NGM WITH KEEPING PRECIPITATION TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST OF CURRENT POSITION. TODAY/TONIGHT...ALL MODELS HINT THAT 12Z WILL BE THE TIMING OF WAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE AREA...ENHANCING SNOWFALL THROUGH 15Z OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THAT BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE JUST MAINLY FLURRIES LEFT IN THE CWA AS NO OMEGA LEFT AROUND AT 700 MB. SNOW SHOULD ABRUPTLY SHUT OFF BY 00Z AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...AND THEREFORE LITTLE OR NO UPSLOPE. THINKING AREAS WITH SNOW WILL GET COLDER THAN WHAT ANY GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS. SATURDAY...WILL LIKELY TAKE OUT MORNING FLURRIES...BUT LEAVE IN CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS BRING GOOD WAA TO NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE DAWN...LEE TROF DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY. SOUTHEAST HALF OF ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDER WAA WHILE NORTHEAST ZONES GET SOME CAA AT 850. NGM FORECASTING A BIG REBOUND IN TEMPS (UP TO 40+) AND FIND THIS A BIT HARD TO BELIEVE CONSIDERING POSSIBLE SNOW COVER THAT WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH COLDER START...AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. WILL LEAN TOWARDS COOLER FAN TEMPS FOR HIGHS WHICH IS ALSO MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS GOING FORECAST. EXTENDED...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW...HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING WITH SYSTEMS COMING IN OFF THE WEST COAST. APPEARS THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...AND THEREFORE MENTION OF CHANCES JUST ABOUT ANY DAY DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF LINE. NOT GOING TO MAKE ANY CHANGES. .LBF...HEAVY SNOW WARNING Z069-070. SNOW ADVISORY TODAY Z058- 071. SLM ne NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR 230 AM PST FRI FEB 11 2000 UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO MENTION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 INCH IN THE FOOTHILLS...1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS FOR REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. LATEST 09Z RUC MODEL RUN SHOWS PRECIPITATION LINGERING IN FOOTHILLS AND LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN TIL 15Z...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TODAY FOR KPDT...KALW AND KPSC FOR SCATTERED MORNING SNOW SHOWERS. IR SATELLITE LOOP SUGGESTS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT AND MOVES INTO WASHINGTON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE. HOWEVER... UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO PLACEMENT OF SHORT WAVE AT 48-HOUR POINT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOOON. WILL THEREFORE INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY. EXTENDED...AVN SHOWS THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MOISTURE TO REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR WARM AIR OVERUNNING PRECIPITATION. POLAN PDT 413 ALW 413 PSC 302 YKM 103 .KPDT...WSR-88D...VCP32/CSR21...OPERATIONAL. .KPDT...NONE. or SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 830 PM CST THU FEB 10 2000 SURFACE LOW NEAR SPS TROUGHING SOUTH TO THE HILL COUNTRY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER OUR CWFA. COLD AIR STILL OVER TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN HALF OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE LOOP INDICATE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SWEEPING ACROSS NW OLD MEXICO TOWARDS TX. HGX VAD WINDS INDICATE SW WINDS 30-35 KT WINDS BOUNDARY LAYER TO ABOUT 4.5KFT THEN WESTERLY ABOVE THIS LAYER. SURROUNDING 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM NOSE FROM 5-10 KFT. ETA AND RUC INDICATE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW TREKS TOWARDS LOUISIANA. DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE 50S N AND NW ZONES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS WILL PROBABLY HANG ON ELSEWHERE. WILL MAKE SLIGHT 1ST PD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND WINDS. WILL LOWER BAY WINDS A TAD TONIGHT AS CURRENT TRENDS WOULD INDICATE. 37/46 .HGX...NONE CLL BB 057/081 050/071 049 000 IAH BB 059/081 056/074 054 000 GLS BB 062/071 062/070 059 000 tx TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 750 PM CST THU FEB 10 2000 HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT PASSAGE OF INITIAL COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT. CURRENTLY LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR IS WORKING INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE PER 01Z SFC ANLYS. 21Z RUC MODEL SUGGESTS UPSLOPE AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z WITH FAVORABLE UPGLIDE NEAR THE 295 DEGREE KELVIN SURFACE. WE HAVE INCLUDED POSSIBLE MORNING FOG OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MAY NEED TO ADJUST THE MENTION OF FOG INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER TONIGHT/MORNING BUT WONT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH THIS NOTION FOR NOW. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. SLATTERY/COCKRELL tx NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO 330 AM MST FRIDAY FEBRUARY 11 2000 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: NRLY ALL OF PCPN PAST SVRL HRS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A BOULDER TO AKRON LN. WHEREAS MTN ZNS HAVE CONTD TO RECEIVE STEADY SNOWFALL OF VARYING INTENSITIES. ALL THIS BECAUSE OF INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SHRTWV TROF PASSING OVR UT ATTM. FM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OVR XTRM SERN UT. THIS MATCHED UP NICELY WITH 250MB WARM POOL AND STEEPEST 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OFF THE RUC AND ETA. MOVEMENT OF CIRCULATION CENTER WAS TO THE E AT ABOUT 40KTS. FOR NEXT SVRL HRS...WOULD XPCT TO SEE SNOWFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASING BOTH IN THE N-CNTRL MTNS AND ON NERN PLNS AS VORT MAX/SHRT WV APPROACHES. BEST INSTABILITY AND QG ASCENT OVR CWA BTWN 09Z-15Z THIS MRNG. ALREADY SEEING SN SHWR COVERAGE INCREASING ON THE PLAINS. BLV BANDED SN SHWR ACTVTY WILL EXPAND SWRD INTO THE DEN METRO AREA NXT HR OR SO. STILL RELUCTANT TO GO WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN AND AROUND METRO AREA DUE TO LACK OF ELY UPSLOPE FLOW. PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWED E-SELY WNDS LESS THAN A THSND FT DEEP ATTM. ABV THAT WNDS WERE W-SWLY IN DIR. PROGD SFC WNDS OFF SFM GRDLY SHIFT TO A S-SELY COMPONENT ON THE PLNS BY 12Z...WITH HINT OF A WK DEN CYCLONE CENTERED NR D.I.A...AND LGT NLY/BARRIER WNDS UP AGAINST FTHLS. KP IN MIND...S-SELY BNDRY LYR WNDS ARE UPSLOPE WNDS FOR LARIMER AND NWRN WELD CTYS. SO BEST CHC TO SEE ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LKLY OCCUR THERE. LASTLY...SHOULD SEE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CNDTNS ON THE PLAINS AFT 18Z WITH DOWNWARD FORCING AND INCREASING STABILITY ON BACK SIDE OF SHRTWV TROF. MEANWHILE...SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE N-CNTRL MTNS ZNS 33..34 WILL BE EXTENDED THRU NOON TODAY WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 3-6 INCHES XPCTD MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT DVD. SINCE AMS OF PAC ORIGIN SEE LTL COOLING IN THE MTNS TODAY. WHEREAS TEMPS ON THE PLAINS WL REMAIN SVRL DEGS BELOW NORMAL TODAY AS FLOW ARND 1030 MB SFC HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS WILL KP CHILLY CANADIAN AIR MASS SHOVED UP AGAINST THE FNT RNG FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MOS TEMP AND POP GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOKS REASONABLE. BAKER LONG TERM DISCUSSION: GENLY ZONAL FLOW TO PERSIST THRU WEEKEND WITH ONE SHT WV MOVING BY TODAY...SEE ABOVE AND THEN NEXT ONE IS DUE IN WRN CO SAT EVE AND THRU ERN CO ERLY SUN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS SCENARIO SO MAIN DFRNC IS AMOUNT MSTR. ALTHO SOME MINOR DFRNCS IN SFC PTRN. FOR CWA WILL BE MOSTLY IN DWNSLP PTRN ALTHO MAY SEE UPSLP FLOW DVLPG IN FAR NERN ZONES ON SUN AS SFC LOW MOVES TO GLD VCNTY AND THEN INTO SERN KS BUT NOT A FACTOR FOR 2ND OR 3RD PD OF FCSTS. WITH DWNSLP FLOW AND ONLY MID/HI LVL MSTR AVBL WILL CUT POPS TO ZERO FOR ERN CO TNGT AND SAT. FOR MTNS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ORGRPHCS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY BUT MSTR WILL BE LESS TNGT AND SAT MORNG BFR INCRSG LATE SAT AS TROF MOVES INTO SRN UT WITH SWLY FLOW OVER CO. WILL CUT THE POPS IN MTNS BACK TO SCT DUE DCRSG MSTR...LACK OF DYNMCS AS WEAK RDG MOVING OVERHEAD PLUS LESS ORGRPHCS WITH SWLY FLOW TMW. WHILE FAN AND FWC GDNC APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON HI TEMPS FOR SAT APPEARS TOO COLD TNGT CONSIDERING FACT DWNSLP FLOW AND PTLY CLDY SKIES SHUD HOLD TEMPS IN MIDDLE 20S SO WILL GO ABOVE GDNC FOR TNGT. AS FOR LONGER TERM...NEW MRF INDCTS SOME CONSOLIDATION OF FLOW ALF AND NEXT SHT WV WILL BE MORE FROM NW AND DUE TO ARV SUN NGT OR MON MORN WITH STRGR NWLY FLOW ALF OVER CO. RDG TO PASS OVER CO MON NGT AND THEN WSWLY FLOW ALF ON TUES AS NEXT SHT WV APCHS CA COAST. CWA WILL BE IN DWNSLP PTRN XCP FOR PSBL UPSLP FLO IN FAR NE EARLY SUN AS ANOTHER ARCTC SURGE MVS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS THEN. THIS MEANS WILL NEED TO KEEP WINDY AND CHANCE OF SNOW IN MTNS EACH DAY THRU EFP WHILE ONLY REAL THREAT OF PCPN IN PLAINS WILL BE SUNDAY AND EVEN THEN ONLY A SLIM CHANCE. THIS ALREADY PRETTY MUCH WAY EFP READS AND WILL NOT CHANGE. BOODA .DEN...SNOW ADVSY CONTD FOR THE N-CNTRL MTNS UNTIL NOON TODAY... ZNS 33 AND 34. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 1000 AM EST FRI FEB 11 2000 CDFNT ATTM STRETCHES FM WRN PA-WVA-ERN TN AND BCMS DIFFUSE DURG AFTN. PCPN AHD OF FNT SHUD BE OUTTA AREA BY ZFP RLS. RDR COMPOSITE NOT SHWG MUCH TO THE W. RUC RH BARELY ABV 50 PCT TAFTN...KEEPING QPF ALNG WRN RDGS...AND AMTS MINIMAL AT THAT. THUS...WL RMV POPS FOR THE AFTN...KEEPING MNTN OF SPRNKLS IN WRN ZNS. BEST SURGE OF CLDR AIR SHUNTD TO THE N TIL AFTR DRK...SO DONT SEE GSTY NW WNDS OR DROPPING TEMPS. HWVR...W/ CLDY SKIES AND H8 CAA AFTR 18Z...ADDTL TEMP RISES WL BE LMTD. WL TWEAK TEMPS AFTR VIEWING 15Z MTR. AS PER LTR PDS...WISH TO VIEW 12Z MDL RUNS BFR MAKING ANY CHGS OR DETERMINING WHAT IF ANY HDLNS MAY BE ADDED. MNWHL...WL REISSUE OUTLK SPS REFINING A BIT MORE AND STRESSING UNCERTAINTY IN FCST. ZFP WIBIS ARND 1015 AM...SPS ARND 1030 AM. COORD WELCOMED. .LWX...NONE HTS md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 AM EST FRI FEB 11 2000 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. 13Z SFC ANAL SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DAKOTAS/W MN WITH RIDGE EXTENDING E ACROSS EXTREME S ONTARIO. VIS IMAGERY AND KMQT 88D SHOW MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS OVER ENTIRE LAKE. MQT COUNTY IN SHADOW UNDER NW FLOW. SHORTER NORTHERLY FETCH NEAR LUCE COUNTY RESULTING IN LITTLE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY...BUT BACKING WINDS MAY INCREASE -SHSN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THERE. RADAR RETURNS GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH HIGHEST ECHOES IN 24-28 DBZ RANGE. LES LIMITED BY VERY DRY AIR...EVEN THOUGH 12Z RAOBS SHOW H85 TEMPS OVER LAKE AROUND -20C. SFC DEWPOINTS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE GENERALLY AOB -18F (-28C). VWP INDICATES INVERSION BASE AROUND 6000FT...WHILE 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION AT SFC AT KMPX AND AROUND 4500 FT AT KAPX. RUC AND 12Z ETA HAVE SFC HIGH DRIFT SLOWLY ESE TOWARD WI. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN GREATEST PRESSURE RISES OCCURRING WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. -22C H85 THERMAL TROF WILL CROSS E LAKE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE WEST AS HIGH DRIFTS TO OUR SW. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BASE OF INVERSION REMAINING NEARLY STEADY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING BL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN COUNTIES. LIMITING FACTORS CONTINUE TO BE DRY AIR AND WINDS BACKING TO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL TAPER AFTERNOON ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY. WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK...ONLY LOWERED GOGEBIC COUNTY MAX BASED ON CURRENT TREND (IWD ONLY 3C AT 15Z). .MQT...NONE. JS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1015 PM EST THU FEB 10 2000 UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST...WITH ALL HEADLINES HAVING EXPIRED. EARLY VIEWS OF 00Z ETA IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z RUC...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS NRN WI AND NWRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. WIDESREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW FALLING ACROSS FORECAST AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION (EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES). BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WHERE ETA AND RUC BOTH SUGGEST ANOTHER 0.05 TO 0.10 QPF. THEREFORE...WE ALLOWED HEADLINES TO EXPIRE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE NRN COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY MORNING. FORECAST MIN TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF GOOD SFC CAA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING... BEFORE RECOVERING DURING THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE CLOUDS START TO DISSIPATE. THANKS FOR COORDINATION...APX. .GRR...NONE. GREENE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 910 PM EST THU FEB 10 2000 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY/NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MI. KAPX (GAYLORD) DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...STILL AWAITING ADDITIONAL PARTS AS TECHNICIANS ATTEMPT TO ISOLATE THE PROBLEM(S). CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS DO SHOW WIDESPREAD AREA OF ENHANCED SNOW (GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 20 DBZ) CURRENTLY WORKING INTO ERN UPR AND NW/NC LOWER MI. BACK EDGE OF THE ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN WISCONSIN. THIS SECOND WAVE OF STEADIER SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH AS PER WATER VAPOR AND LONGWAVE IR LOOPS IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN NE INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI. DEFINITIVE MID LEVEL DRY SLOTTING IS NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN WI...CORRELATING WITH THE DIMINISHING REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ON RADAR. THIS IS WHERE THE NDVA AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE IS BEGINNING TO TAKE EFFECT AS THE VORT LOBE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST. LATEST (00Z) RUC SHOWS DECENT 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...700-500 MB DEFORMATION...AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE (1000-500 MB RH/S OF 80-90 PCT-PLUS) ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 06Z TO 09Z. LATEST TRENDS...18Z ETA...AND CURRENT RUC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FORCING DIMINISHING QUICKLY THEREAFTER WITH THE INCREASING NDVA... Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...AND DRYING. UNTIL THEN...SNOW HISTORY THIS EVENING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MODEL QPF'S AROUND .10" (WITH A 20-TO-1 SNOW/WATER RATIO) SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT. THE PRIOR FORECAST HAD THE AMOUNTS HANDLED WELL...THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE STEADY SNOW WILL LAST A WHILE PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN COUNTIES AT LEAST. WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW THE SNOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NRN LWR. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATION (3-5") HAD FALLEN DURING THE DAY ACROSS THIS REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS CENTRAL-STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS SINCE PULLED EAST OF LOWER MI THIS EVENING. UPDATED ZONES WILL BE OUT BY 1000 PM. .APX...NONE. HURLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 345 AM CST FRI FEB 11 2000 FIRST PERIOD CONCERN FOCUSES ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. 00Z UA ANALYSIS REVEALS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 11-3.9 IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWING SOME MID LVL CLDS IN NORTH CENTRAL SD BUT NGM/ETA KEEP MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF AREA. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE A BIT OVERDONE WITH MID LEVEL RH AT 06Z. HENCE WL CONT WITH M/S WORDING. COLD AIR ADVECTION DECREASES THIS MORNING IN ERN AREAS WITH 85H TEMPS OF 13 TO 16 BLO SETTLING OVR AREA. FRESH SNOWPACK OF 2 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF LN FM AQP TO MSP TO EAU. WITH SUNSHINE...EXPC TEMPS TO REMAIN IN SINGLE DIGITS MOST OF DAY IN NORTH AND RISE INTO THE TEENS SOUTH. EXPC RAPID DROP OFF IN TEMPS THIS EVE WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS DROPPING TO 20 BLO OVER FRESH SNOWCOVER. LATER FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS ON PRECIP THREAT FOR SATURDAY. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES DURING FORECAST PERIOD WITH STRONG DYNAMICS REMAINING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SERIES OF S/W FROM OK WEST TO ERN PACIFIC WHILE ONLY WK UPSTREAM SYSTEMS IN CENTRAL CAN. DEEPER LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED SOUTH AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN. HOWEVER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO UPPER MIDWEST LATE TNGT/SAT. REMARKABLE SIMILARITY IN INCREASING 290 THETA ISENT LIFT DVLPG OVR AREA ON SAT AS COND PRES DEF LOWER TO LESS THAN 20MB WITH 35KTS OF UPGLIDE DVLPG AHEAD OF WK MID LVL WAVE. SYNOPTIC FORCING WEAK WITH MINIMAL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO TAP INTO AND STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC FORCING...WL ADD MID LVL POPS TO ENTIRE AREA FOR THIRD PERIOD. WAA SURGE PASSES TO EAST SAT NGT BUT CHC LT SNOW WL CONT INTO SUN AS MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRES PASSES TO SOUTH. COORD WITH ARX/FGF/DLH. .MSP...NONE. KAVINSKY mn SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 915 PM MST FRI FEB 11 2000 ...WILL UPDATE ZONES AND STATE FORECAST... WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS VORT MAX AT WA-OR-ID BORDER AT 15Z. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING EAST WITH A GOOD FETCH OF MOISTURE BEING SPREAD INTO WESTERN MT AHEAD OF IT. SNOW IS FALLING THROUGHOUT WESTERN MT AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES QUICKLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE OF IDAHO THIS MORNING WITH PRESSURE FALLS INDICATED THROUGHOUT CENTRAL MT. MSO AFD INDICATES THAT ARCTIC HAS DEEPENED ENOUGH TO SPILL THROUGH HELLGATE CANYON AND MORNING RAOB INDICATES INVERSION TO 750 MB. MORNING RUC KEEPS ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH WAA OF MOIST AIRMASS SETTING UP OVER- RUNNING PRECIPITATION TODAY. WILL UP POPS TO LIKELY AT MOST CENTRAL MT LOCATIONS BUT KEEP ACCUMULATIONS AT ABOUT AN INCH. TEMPERATURES LOOK OK. MPJ GTF 713 HLN 625 HVR 222 mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 845 PM EST THU FEB 10 2000 TEMPS QUITE MILD ACRS THE FA TNGT AS STRONG SWLY LOW LVL FLOW CONTS TO PUMP WARM AIR. THIS IS RESULTING IN ISNET LIFT AND LGT PCP OVR NRN CWA AS WARM AIR UPGLIDES COOLER AIR JUST TO N OF SFC BNDRY. SFC BNDRY LIES E-W ACRS NRN CWA AND WILL REMAIN QUASI-STNRY OVERNIGHT AS STRONG S-SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SFC LOW KEEPS IT FROM SURGING S. THUS EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF EARLY TNGT TO REMAIN PCPN FREE AS THE STRONGEST ISENT LIFT REMAINS TO N. STILL FEEL THOUGH THAT PCPN WILL ARRIV IN EARNEST LATER TNGT AS DEEPER MSTR ASSOCD WITH LOW MOVES CLOSER. RUC FCST SHOWS DEEP LYR MSTR ARRIVING AFT 06Z AND ALSO HINTS AT A WEAK COUPLED JET STREAK AND UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE. AND EVEN THOUGH KBGM RADAR STILL SHOWING JUST AREAS OF LGT PCPN THE KBUF RADAR SHOWS MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN JUST TO OUR W. AS MENTIONED ABV TEMPS ARE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE RIGHT NOW FOR THE WINTER WX ADVY BUT BELIEVE THESE TOO WILL BEGIN TO DROP MORE SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS HEAVIER PCPN ARRIVES. THERE MAY BE A SLGT CONTRIBUTION TO EVAP COOLG TOO WITH THE 10-15 TEMP/DWPT SPREAD WE NOW HAVE OVR CWA. BUF SOUNDING THIS EVENING DID SHOW A SHALLOW LYR OF DRY AIR JUST ABV THE SFC AND SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP LYR JUST ABV THAT DRY LAYER SO THAT TOO MAY HELP WITH EVAP COOLG ONCE PCPN STARTS. RUC ALSO FCSTING 1000-850 THICKNESS TO HOVER NR CRITICAL LEVELS ALL NIGHT FROM BGM N. SO I THINK THERE STILL IS ENUF EVIDENCE TO KEEP THE ADVY GOING DESPITE CURRENT CONDS. WILL MOST LIKELY REWORD FCST PACKAGE TO MENTION THE PCP AND WINTRY MIX ARRIVING LATER TNGT. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS ARE WARM NOW THEY WILL DROP QUICKLY WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS. JHW DROPPED FROM 45 TO 37 AS SOME LGT SHOWERS MOVED THRU THERE LEADING MORE CREEDANCE TO POSS EVAP COOLG PLAYING A PART. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE TEMPS ALONE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE TOM MRNG AS LOW MOVES THRU CWA. 18Z MESO-ETA BRINGS FNT THRU WRN CWA ARND 12Z AND THRU ERN CWA BY 15Z AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WHEN COMPARED TO LATEST RUC FCSTS. EXPECT ANY WINTRY MIX OF PCPN TO QUICKLY TURN OVR TO SNOW DURING THIS TIME AS 925 AND 850 MB 0C LINE PASSES THRU. .BGM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TNGT THRU FRI MRNG ALL ZONES XCPT PAZ044-047. HOLMES ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 945 AM EST FRI FEB 11 2000 UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWS TROF MOVING NORTH OF REGION TODAY. WITH SHORT WAVE KICKING TROF TO THE COAST...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY 00Z SUNDAY. AT SFC...LOW OVER NEW YORK THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY IS NOW PULLING AWAY RATHER QUICKLY WITH ITS RESIDUAL MOISTURE. DRIZZLE AND FOG ALREADY ENDING AT 14Z IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES. DRIER AIR IS PUSHING IN BEHIND BOUNDARY THAT IS AHEAD OF VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT HAVE RECENTLY PASSED FDY AND AOH DELINEATE BOUNDARY...WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS EVIDENT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY WILL HAVE CROSSED MOST OF AREA BY ISSUANCE TIME...SO THERE SHOULD BE NO NEED TO MENTION DRIZZLE AND FOG EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS IN THE EAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR TODAY...AFTER CURRENT DRIZZLE ENDS...BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER MICHIGAN SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF HERE WITH VORT MAX PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACCORDING TO RUC AND MESOETA. FOR TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE...BUT SATELLITE AND MODELS INDICATE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ON THE WAY. ON SATURDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG IN AS SYSTEM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...MESOETA INDICATES .01 QPF AT PMH FOR SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WILL WAIT FOR NEXT FULL MODEL RUN BEFORE DECIDING TO REINTRODUCE POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. FCST TEMPS ALSO LOOK PRETTY GOOD THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO ADJUST THIS AFTERNOON'S WORDING A BIT AFTER EXAMINING TEMP TRENDS JUST PRIOR TO ISSUANCE. LATEST MRF/AVN INDICATE EXTENDED TEMPS MAY NEED UPWARD ADJUSTMENT...ALONG WITH MAKING LIQUID PRECIP PREDOMINANT... BUT WILL WAIT FOR NEXT AVN RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS. MISILN OUT BY SOON. .ILN...NONE. CONIGLIO oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1025 AM EST FRI FEB 11 2000 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CDFNT FM STATE COLLEGE PA...THRU CHARLESTON WV...SW TO E OF NASHVILLE TN. AT UPPER LEVELS...VORT MAX INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC DATA OVER NE TN. THIS FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS OVER SW VA/ERN KY. TIMING OF FRONT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...PASSING FM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. VORT MAX LIKEWISE PROGGED TO MOVE FM W TO E ACROSS THE AREA. THESE TWO FEATURES WARRANT KEEPING CHC POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. THINK CHC POPS IS HIGH ENOUGH...DESPITE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOES OVER NRN COUNTIES. MUCH OF WHAT IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR HAS NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND...BASED ON SFC OBS...DUE TO EXTREME DRYNESS OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER EVIDENT IN WAL SOUNDING. A NUMBER OF STATIONS REPORTING SPRINKLES...TRACE AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN A TAD NRN COUNTIES. MAY NEED TO MAKE SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT THERE. .AKQ...NONE REILLY va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 300 PM CDT FRI FEB 11 2000 TWO MAIN ISSUES THIS FCST PD...HOW FAR NE TO SPRD THE SNOW THIS EVENING AND HOW MUCH SNOW AND EVEN PCPN TYPE ON SUNDAY. SHORT TERM...CURRENT ZONE ALIGNMENT AND FCST FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS GOOD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LNK TO NEBR CITY LINE. WL CUT BACK AMOUNTS TO AN INCH OR LESS. ACCUMULATING SNOW WL PRBLY HAVE A SHARP EDGE IF 925MB RH PROGS ARE TO BE BELIEVED...WITH PRBLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES...IF THAT...TO THE NORTH. LATEST RUC PCPN FCST AND 88D MOSAIC TRENDS SUPPORT THIS. PREV TEMP FCST LOOKS GOOD...NO BIG DEVIATION FM GUID. FOR SAT...MOST OF ANY PCPN GENERATED DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT FM ETA THRU 18Z MAINLY N OF STATE...HOWEVER LATER IN THE DAY ALL MODELS BRING EITHER A LOBE OR VORT MAX INTO FCST AREA WITH QG FORCING NOTED. SO CAN'T RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW COMPLETELY AND WL KEEP FLURRIES IN FCST MUCH OF THE S WITH SMALL POPS ACRS NRN ZONES. SHOULD BE CLDY OR MOCLDY AS LOW CLDS COULD RTN OR AT LEAST A LOT OF MID AND HI CLDS DUE TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE AROUND. SO WL KEEP TEMP FCST SVRL DEGREES BLO GUID. SAT NGT/SUN...MODELS ALL FCST CLOSED 850 MB AND SFC LOW IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SIGFNT SNOWS PARTS OF CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ETA IS MUCH LIGHTER WITH PCPN AMOUNTS BY 12Z SUNDAY AND FTHR S WITH SFC LOW THAN NGM/AVN AND ETA INDICATES MAINLY SNOW...EXCEPT EXTREME SERN CORNER. NGM AND ESPECIALLY AVN ARE WARMER AND BRING RAIN/SNOW LINE INTO OMA VCNTY...AT LEAST BASED ON 850 MB TEMP AND 1000/500 THICKNESS PARAMETERS. IF THIS INDEED VERIFIES...THIS COULD POSE SOME PRBLMS IF COLD AIR AT THE SFC ISN'T SCOURED OUT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE COULD BE A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN OR SOME SORT OF MIXED PCPN. AGAIN SINCE THIS SYSTEM WAS STILL OFF THE W COAST AT MODEL INITIALIZATION...FEEL THERE ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES BUT WE WL ISSUE AN SPS ON IT AND GO WITH THE HIGH FAN/FWC POPS. WL KEEP PCPN TYPE SNOW N OF AN OMA-OLU LINE BUT MENTION A MIX S...WITH IT MOSTLY RAIN FAR SERN ZONES. AGAIN BECAUSE OF CLDS/PCPN WOULD EXPECT LTL DIURNAL TEMP RANGE SUN. WE WL KEEP PCPN INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED DRY. .OMA...NONE CHERMOK ne TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1151 AM CST FRI FEB 11 2000 THE BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS WAS BEGINNING TO ERODE QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING SIMILAR TO THE RUC FORECAST. AS A RESULT...UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. CB tx