EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1005 AM EST WED FEB 9 2000 SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FL E COAST THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LOW/VORT CENTER MOVING ACROSS NE FL COAST. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WRAPPING AROUND BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE REACHING INTO VOLUSIA COUNTY WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA IN FULL SUNSHINE. WILL KEEP VOLUSIA SEPARATE TO INDICATE COOLER HIGH TEMPS AND MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST AS CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ADJACENT COUNTIES TO VOLUSIA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD AREA REACHING FARTHER SOUTH AND INDICATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR REST OF THE AREA. FIRE WX FORECASTER WILL BE RAISING A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR 35 PERCENT RH VALUES AND WINDS AOA 15 MPH...FOR ALL COUNTIES THAT WERE IN THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VOLUSIA WHERE CLOUDS ARE INHIBITING DAYTIME HEATING. MARINE...LATEST RUC INDICATING WINDS OVER COASTAL WATERS WILL MAINLY HAVE WNW COMPONENT MUCH OF TODAY...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD MORE OFFSHORE THAN NEAR THE COAST. SEAS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY AT BUOYS 009 AND 010 PAST FEW HOURS. WITH THIS AND WINDS NOT AS STRONG TO THE SOUTH...WILL SCALE BACK SCA TO CAUTION STATEMENT FOR SRN LEG AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN LEG. THANKS FOR COORD MIA AND JAX. .MLB...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 20-60 NM OFFSHORE FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH. RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES. GLITTO fl MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 312 AM PST WED FEB 9 2000 SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS OF SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR 35N/132W INDICATES WEAKENING WITH WARMER TOPS AND ELONGATION OF THE CIRCULATION. SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE CLOSED OFF...AND MUCH STRONGER THAN ANY OF THE SHORT-TERM MODELS...BUT MAY BE LOSING ENERGY TO REFORMING CIRCULATION BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY SHORT-TERM MODELS. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES IT INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RUC EXTENSION FROM THE FSL IN BOULDER. QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE (WELL...FOR THE DESERTS ANYWAY) WILL BE FLOWING ACROSS AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM SO CAN NOT QUITE GO WITH BREAKING OUT CLOUDS TODAY EXCEPT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. BUT DID REMOVE REMNANT POPS FROM EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING SINCE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA IS KICKING MORE QUICKLY TO THE EAST THAN MODELS INDICATE. BELIEVE THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SIERRA AND MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA BY EARLY TONIGHT. THE CURRENT ZONE TRENDS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. IN SPITE OF MOISTURE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO WARM MOST AREAS FROM YESTERDAY DUE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING FROM GUSTIER SURFACE WINDS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT CIRCULATION ADVERTISED TO MOVE AGGRESSIVELY ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST 18Z THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH WELL FORMED PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM...LIKE ITS PREDECESSORS...IS LIKELY SUFFERING FROM INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS. SO MODELS SUSPICIOUS AT THE LEAST. ETA APPEARS TO BE ODD MAN OUT WITH MUCH LESS AMPLITUDE THAN NGM OR AVN; BUT NONE OF THE SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE HAD TOO GREAT OF A TRACK RECORD RECENTLY SO ALTHOUGH WE SUSPECT A STRONGER SYSTEM SUCH AS AVN...WE ALSO DO NOT HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE. AGREED THEREFORE WITH ZONE TRENDS FOR THURSDAY OF INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH SNOW LEVEL FALLING BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR SOME WATCHING IF SATELLITE VERIFIES CIRCULATION REFORMATION BY MIDDAY VICINITY OF 40N/135W (NOT TO BE CONFUSED WITH CURRENT CIRCULATION THIS AREA THAT SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE LATER TODAY.) AND POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MAINLY SIERRA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ON THURSDAY. BUT AGAIN WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE WILL DEFER ADDITIONAL DECISIONS TO DAY SHIFT WHICH SHOULD HAVE THE ADVANTAGE OF SEEING IF THIS SYSTEM FORMS BEFORE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE IS DUE. NO CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED WITH NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALSO USED WITH MINIMAL CONFIDENCE. MCQUEEN LAS...NONE. nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED CWF SECTION. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 845 PM EST WED FEB 9 2000 UPR LOW OFF GA CST IS MVG SLOWLY NE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONT TO KEEP MOISTURE RATHER HIGH ALONG THE CST OVERNIGHT. RDR SHOWS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF PAMLICO SOUND WITH SOME SHRA FORMING JUST OFFSHORE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CONT WITH CHCY POPS ALONG CST WITH CLDS HOLDING ON MUCH OF THE NIGHT. INLAND CLDS ARE ALREADY THINNING AND EXPECT DECREASING CLDS LTR AS SYSTEM DRFTS FRTHR E. TEMPS WL DROP INTO MID/UPR 30S INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES AND OTR BNKS. CWF: DECENT GRDNT CONTS OVER THE SRN WTRS CLOSE TO SFC LOW WITH FPSN7 NEAR 40 KTS. TUFF CALL ON HOW FAR N THE STRGR WINDS REACH AS CLKN7 REMAINS BELOW 20 KTS. RUC SHOWS LOW MVG A LITTLE FRTHR N AND DEEPENING NEXT FEW HOURS...THIS WOULD INCRS SPEEDS ACRS MY SRN WTRS TO NEAR SCA LVLS. ALTHOUGH WILL PROB NOT SEE STRGR WINDS AT CLKN7 CONCERNED SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY STRGR JUST OFFSHR. PLAN ON RAISING SCA FROM OCRACOKE S OVERNIGHT. FRHTR N WINDS SHLD REMAIN LIGHTER AS GRDNT NOT AS TIGHT. UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST REPORTS FROM DSLN7 AND HATTERAS INLET WILL GO WITH SCA FROM CAPE HATTERAS S. .MHX...SCA CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE HATTERAS. FREDERICK nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 950 AM EST WED FEB 9 2000 WATER VAPOR PIX SHOW THE UPR LO NOW MOVING OFF THE FL CST & PRO- GRESSING EWD AS SCHEDULED. 06Z MESO-ETA HAD GOOD PLACEMENT ON THIS FEATURE & ITS OMEGA FIELDS, WHICH WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC ANALYSES SHOW LO PRES OFF GA/SC CSTS MOVING UP THE TROF. NEITHER THE MESO NOR THE LATEST RUC APPEAR TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON ITS LOCATION BUT IT SHOULD MOVE NE THIS AFTN. THE TROF HAS SWUNG BACK FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MRNG TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIP W/ IT. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP FOR THE CST AS LO COULD WRAP A FEW RW BACK ONSHORE. DRIER MID/UPR-LVL AIR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WRN CWFA & SHOULD BE ACROSS DURING THE AFTN BUT UPR-LVL MOISTURE IS STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF THE LO. W/ THE LO MOVING AWAY THIS AFTN, THE INLD SECTIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE SOME SUN. COMPARISONS W/ LAMP GUIDANCE & LOL-LVL THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT GOING TEMPS. CWF: WILL DROP THE SCA N OF LTL RIVER AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA AT FPSN7. CONDITIONS AT 41004 STILL UP W/ WINDS 29KT & SEAS 8FT. MESO IS A LITTLE QUICKER IN BRINGING DOWN WINDS THIS AFTN THAN CURRENT FCST TRENDS. WILL COMPROMISE & BRING DOWN SLIGHTLY. .ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LITTLE RIVER INLET SC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC. LGE nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 812 PM CST WED FEB 9 2000 ON THE PUBLIC SIDE OF THINGS...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK AFTER A REVIEW OF CURRENT WX ANLYS AND RUC. A LITTLE MORE HECTIC ON THE AVIATION SIDE WHERE HI LVL CLDS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO KEEP TABS ON BOUNDARIES AND MOVEMENT OF LO STRATUS. PRVS MDLS /INCLUDING 18Z MESOETA/ INDICATED ONCE LO LVL MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE CWA WL BE HERE THOUGH THE EARLY MRNG. WL WAIT FOR ETA/NGM TO ARRIVE BEFORE I MAKE ANY CHGS TO THE ZONES...BUT ATTM DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MAJOR CHGS BEYOND A FEW TWEAKS TO PKG AS LO IN CNTRL PLAINS SLIDES E. .FSD...NONE BR sd EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON 900 AM PST WED FEB 9 2000 12Z KOTX SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST LAYER OF AIR NEAR THE GROUND THAT EXTENDS ONLY UP TO 890 MB WITH DRY AIR LOCATED ABOVE THAT. DESPITE A STABLE SUBSIDENT LAYER FROM 890-825 MB...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO CLEAR OUT THE STRATUS/FOG. 12Z RUC AND 12Z ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGREE IN DEPICTING STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT WEAKENING WIND FIELDS SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS STRICTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL UPDATE FORECAST AROUND 10 AM MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPORAL WORDING. AWH/JL ...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS... GEG 040/031/038 111 CQV 042/028/039 222 S86 042/027/038 222 COE 043/032/039 111 WWP 039/026/039 222 LWS 052/035/049 011 MOS 044/033/040 EAT 038/029/038 000 .GEG...NONE. wa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 300 PM CST WED FEB 9 2000 FCST CHALLENGE IS TYPE OF PCPN AND HOW MUCH LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MRNG. CURRENT SATELLITE PIXS SHOW A VERY ROBUST VORTMAX IN SERN CO MOVG NEWD. I AGREE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES IN THAT MODELS DON/T DO JUSTICE WITH THIS VORTMAX BY WEAKENING IT WITH TIME. WE FEEL THIS SYSTEM/S MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND MERGE WITH HIGHER RH/S AND PCPN OF NRN BAROCLINIC ZONE ACRS MN INTO NRN WI. THEREFORE WILL GO LIKELY WITH PCPN LATE TNT INTO THU MRNG ACRS SRN WI. AVN MODEL THUS IS BEST AT SHOWING BROADER AREA OF PCPN/QPF EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE MAIN WEST TO EAST BAND ACRS MN INTO NRN WI...AND AVN MODEL HAS BETTER MERGING. AS FOR WETZEL INGREDIENTS APPROACH...ETA MODEL HAS LGT TO MODERATE QG FORCING ACRS SRN WI LATE TNT/ERLY THU MRNG FROM 800 TO 700MB... AND EVEN UP TO 600 MB ARND 12Z THU. RH/S ARE 80 TO 90PCT AND TEMPS MINUS 12 TO MINUS 14 AT 600MB. SO WE SHD HAVE ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED INTO PCPN PROCESS. COUPLE THIS WITH SOME INSTABILITY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z ONE HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION..PROBABLY SLANTWISE. THUS THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW/SLEET SHWERS EMBEDDED IN AREAS OF FRZG RAIN OR FRZG DRZL. HAVE TO GO MIXTURE IN FCST. OTHERWISE FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FRZG RAIN CHANCES FOR MSN-MKE SOUTH DUE TO TEMPS OF PLUS 1 TO 3 IN INVERSION LAYER..AND BELOW FRZG NEAR SURFACE. ALL SAID AND DONE... WILL GO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TNT AND THU MORNING. PCPN WILL BE ALL SNOW FROM MQT COUNTY EWD TO SHEBOYGAN COUNTY WHERE FCST SOUNDINGS ARE ZERO OR OR BELOW. WILL GO WITH ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH FOR THIS AREA. AFTER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM WRN GRT LKS RGN THU AFTN WE LOSE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING MORE NW TO N. MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR COMING IN BUT WITH TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS AND 850MB IN THE MINUS 12 TO MINUS 16 RANGE...ENUF FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW NRN LAKE MICHIGAN... BUT NOT ENUF FOR SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. SO WILL ONLY GO WITH FLURRIES THU AFTN. CHANCE FOR LGT SNOW BY FRI AFTN AS NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES...AND INTO WEEKEND. THANKS TO GRB ARX LOT FOR CORD. .UW-NMS MORE SIMILAR TO NGM AND RUC FOR PCPN QPF...WITH TIMING THE SAME WITH ALL MODELS. .MKX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TNT AND THU MRNG WIZ056>060- /.../...0...0 $$ KAPELA wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 230 AM CST THU FEB 10 2000 LOW CONFIDENCE FORECASTS CONTINUE WITH FAST SPLIT FLOW ACROSS CONUS CAUSING PROBLEMS WITH BOTH NUMERICAL AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL VISUALIZATION. UPR/SFC LOW OVER ERN KS/WRN MO JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SATURATE IN WARM SECTOR WITH A LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD SECTOR OVER MY CWA. KNEW YESTERDAY THAT LACK OF MOISTURE MIGHT BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM...BUT THOUGH ARCTIC AIR OVER NRN PLAINS WOULD HELP OUT. WELL IT DIDN'T THO THAT SHOULDN'T BE THE CASE TODAY. KS/MO SYSTEM WILL SHEAR OUT TO MY SOUTHEAST AND POSE NOT TOO MUCH OF A FCST PROBLEM. WARM FRONT OVER NRN MO MY BRIEFLY REACH INTO OTM AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE LOW PULLS OUT...BEGINNING THE SOUTHWARD SLIDE OF THE ARCTIC AIR POISED JUST NORTH OF IA. UP THERE...TWO AREAS OF PRECIP CURRENTLY. FIRST IN ERN MN/WRN WI WILL BE AN IA NON-PLAYER. FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER SHEARED OUT VORT...THAT WAS OVER NW WASH LAST NIGHT...AND ISENT LIFT WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER DAKOTAS. THIS MAY BRUSH NRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY IN ZFP AND WILL LEAVE AS FLURRIES. OUT WEST...FRIDAYS SYSTEM IS STILL OFF WEST COAST. OVERALL...CURRENT ZFP NOT TOO FAR OFF. WILL MASSAGE VARIOUS DETAILS AS NOTED BELOW. ETA SHOULD HANDLE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO OUR NORTH BEST. WILL USE ETA/AVN FOR FCST. GIVEN UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...MAY BE HARD TO SEE ANY PRECIP WHATSOEVER ACROSS SRN 2/3 CWA TODAY. DAKOTAS SYSTEM MAY BRUSH NRN CWA AND WILL CONT BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ UP THERE THIS MORNING WITH FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. ETA BRINGS THIS PRECIP INTO CWA...BARELY WITH RUC KEEPING IT NORTH. ELSEWHERE...WILL REMOVE PRECIP FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH WHERE 40 POP FOR -RA IS IN ZFP. LOOKS LIKE THAT POTENTIAL MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MY CWA. MAY BUMP TEMPS THERE AROUND 5 DEG OR SO TO FOR MORNING HIGHS. TONIGHT...WILL TRIM OR REMOVE PRECIP CHCS AS THERE IS LITTLE FORCING. FLURRIES AT MOST AS ARCTIC AIR SLIDES IN. FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT...IA TO MISS THE BEST QG FORCING...DPVA...AND UVV WITH SYSTEM GOING WILL SOUTH OF IA. HOWEVER...BOTH ETA AND AVN TO A MODERATE DEGREE...HIGHLIGHT DEFORMATION FIELDS ALONG MO/IA BORDER. CONCEPTUALLY THIS MAKES SENSE THO NOT SURE HOW WELL ANY COMMA HEAD WILL GET DEVELOPED IN THIS FAST FLOW. CURRENTLY HAVE LIKELY POPS THOSE AREAS FOR ACCUM SNOW. WILL LEAVE NOW AS PROGS JUST AREN'T DOING WELL. DEFINATELY DON/T WANT TO YO-YO THE FCST. WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP AND WILL BUMP POPS DOWN A BIT OVER NRN CWA PER COORD WITH ARX. IN THE EXTENDED...COULD BE A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AS NRN BRANCH SPITS OUT A FAST MOVING VORT MAX AND MODEL UVV. SINCE I HAVE SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE AND A CURRENTLY DRY FCST...WILL AGAIN NOT CHANGE TO A POP IN NORTH SAT...BUT WILL BRIEF NEXT SHIFT. .DSM...NONE. SEARCY ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 847 PM CST WED FEB 9 2000 SENT ZONES EARLY TO LOWER OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. EVENING UPPER AIR/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER KS/OK. THIS FEATURE REMAINS ON AN EASTERLY COURSE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS SEEN IN MT. BEST PV ADVECTION PUSHING INTO WESTERN ND AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES! 18Z ETA AND 00Z RUC SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MN PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR AT H7 PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN BY 12Z. SHORTWAVE AND PV TO OUR NW TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN BY DAYBREAK. 18Z ETA SHOWING BEST LAYER OMEGA OVER EAST CENTRAL MN NOW WITH THE MAX MOVING TO SE WI BY 09Z. A CHECK ON SNOWFALL TO OUR NORTH INDICATES AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF HAS FALLEN SINCE IT STARTED THIS AFTERNOON. LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER EASTERN MN NOW SHIFTS INTO NORTHEAST MN BY DAYBREAK AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND PV ARRIVE. NOTHING SEEN IN THE CONVECTIVE DIAGNOSTIC PROG FOR THE CWA OVERNIGHT. CURRENT ZONE GROUPINGS LOOK GOOD BUT LOWERED OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATION TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER NORTHERN AREAS AND DROPPED BACK TO AN INCH FROM MSP ON WESTWARD AND 1 TO 2 INCHES TO THE EAST. MENTIONED JUST FLURRIES OVER THE FAR SOUTH FOR LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ALSO DID A LITTLE REWORDING ON THE THURSDAY FORECAST TO INDICATE LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING IN WI WITH JUST FLURRIES BACK HERE IN MN. LEFT TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH ALONE. .MSP...NONE. HILTBRAND mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 320 PM CST WED FEB 9 2000 SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST. KMVX/KDLH RADARS LIGHTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SNOW WAS BEING GENERATED BY INCREASE H8 WAA...WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS MN/WI. THE SNOW WAS ALSO AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG OMEGA...WHICH WAS LIKELY BEING INDUCED BY RRQ JET DYNAMICS. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE...BUT WILL GO WITH THE RUC FOR THE EVENING AND ETA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN WORDING OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE SOUTH WITH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFLAKES IN THE AREAS CURRENTLY SNOWING ARE FAIRLY SMALL...700 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE FAVORABLE RANGE FOR LARGER FLAKES DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO JUSTIFY THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD ALSO HELP TO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL MAINTAIN WORDING OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ADJACENT TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SOUTH SHORE COULD GET THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST SAY AROUND 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RIDGING WILL POKE IN ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CLEARING TREND TO THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. 850 TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY GRADUALLY DURING THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE A COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COLD 850 TEMPS. MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW ZERO. COORD WITH FGF...MPX...THANKS. .DLH...NONE. DAP mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CST WED FEB 9 2000 MAIN QUESTION IS DISTRIBUTION OF SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW HAS MOVED INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NRN ROCKIES. SECOND SYSTEM HAS SPUN UP IN NRN NM/SRN CO...QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN 12Z MODELS HAD INDICATED. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA RUC INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY OVER SW MN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST FOR SNOW TONIGHT WILL REFLECT MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS. MAINLY LARGE SCALE INSTABILITY...SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET...COULD MAKE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS...EVEN WITH LESS MOISTURE. OVER THE SOUTH A MIXTURE LIKELY AT FIRST...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THURSDAY. WIND FORECAST HAS BE RAISED FROM GUIDANCE SOME DUE TO COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER AND ARCTIC NATURE OF LOW LEVEL AIR. EXPECT NEXT SYSTEM TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDINESS TO SRN PORTIONS ON SATURDAY. SYSTEM FROM PACIFIC NW FORECAST BY MRF TO SPREAD MORE SNOW TO REGION SUNDAY MONDAY. .MSP...NONE. SCOTT mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 937 PM EST WED FEB 9 2000 COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO FA ATTM...WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACRS RGN OVRNGT. STEADIER SNOW WHICH FELL THIS PM OVR NRN NY AND PARTS OF NRN VT WAS ASSOCD WITH ULVL SHRTWV WHICH HAS EXITED THE NORTHEAST. PCPN WITH CDFNT IS RATHER LIMITED...AND IS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE BORDER ATTM. LATEST RUC INDICATES THAT THIS LGT SNOW MAY AFFECT NE VT...SO WL KEEP MENTION OF POPS THERE...BUT ELSEWHERE WL JUST MENTION FLRYS. EXPECT SKIES TO RMN CLDY AFTER FROPA AS GOING FCST INDICATES. CURRENT MIN TEMP FCSTS FOR TONITE LOOK OK. LLVL COLD AIR WL SEEP SOUTH INTO CHMPLN/ST LWR VLY WHERE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY TO BE THURS AM. .BTV...NONE. RJS vt SOUTHEAST IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID 900 AM MDT THU FEB 10 2000 FCST/A SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM MAKING FOR DIFFICULT FCST (LOW CONFIDENCE).... WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING SPINNING 5H LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST (TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE THAN YESTERDAY MODELS INDICATED). OLD E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE STATIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN ID/OR BEGINNING TO SHIFT WITH PORTION OVER OR LIFTING NORTH AND SECTION OVER EASTERN ID DRIFTING SOUTH. MESOETA/RUC MODELS BOTH DEPICTING A 5H S/WV TROF SLIDING SE ACROSS E ID THIS MORNING. ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS WAVE A SWATH OF SHOWERS..A FEW HEAVY...HAVE BEEN TRACKING THRU SOUTHERN FCST/A. IN THE SHORT TERM...S/WV TROF AND BAROCLINIC BNDRY WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF FCST/A THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRYING AND NVA REPLACING PVA ACROSS E ID THIS AFTN. OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SLIDE NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH LOW POPS EXPECTED AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. NEW ETA RUN SHOWS NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATING FCST/A AFTER TONIGHT. WINTHER BYI 045/034/044/033 223 .KSFX WSR-88D...OPERATIONAL...VCP 21. .PIH...NONE. PIH EE 043/032 043/032 045 12223 IDA EE 038/027 037/026 039 12123 id AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 240 AM CST THU FEB 10 2000 ...SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOW A NICE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS WITH A DECENT LLJ. TRENDS IN THE LLJ HAVE BEEN TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH WITH IT NOW 45-50 KNOTS RUNNING FROM NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ADDITIONALLY WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER IT PASSED KICT. EVENING UPPER AIR AND PROFILER SHOW (ALTHOUGH NOT IDEAL) THE LLJ AND UPPER POLAR JET ALMOST BEING COUPLED W.R.T THE LEFT FRONT AND RIGHT REAR QUADS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JETS. IR TRENDS SHOW COOLING TOPS ACROSS MISSOURI WITH WARMING TOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A LOW NEAR KCNU WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO NEAR KEOK AND THEN EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A COLD FRONT RAN SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS WITH AN INVERTED TROF UP TOWARD KOMA. THE ARCTIC FRONT LAID ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS 50 DEW POINTS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH 40 DEW POINTS APPROACHING CENTRAL MISSOURI. ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREA DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. 88D MOSAIC SHOWS MAINLY AC CLOUDS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS MISSOURI. PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES. 00Z MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL AT ALL THIS THIS CONTINUES INTO THEIR RESPECTIVE 6 HOUR FORECASTS. ALL ARE UNDERPLAYING THE MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NORTH BY THE LLJ WITH THE ETA HAVING THE AXIS CORRECT BUT TOO DRY. ADDITIONALLY THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH AND TOO FAR TO THE WEST AND NO ONE IS CATCHING THE PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS MISSOURI. THE 03Z RUC COMES THE CLOSEST ON MOISTURE BUT STILL ABOUT TWO HOURS SLOW AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH (BY 1 MB) ON THE CORRECT POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW. THUS WILL USE THE RUC FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM AND THEN BLEND IT INTO AN AVN/ETA BLEND WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON THE AVN SINCE THE AVN FOLLOWS THE RUC MORE CLOSELY. RUC TAKES THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TOWARD THE KUIN AREA BY EARLY MORNING WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT 08Z DATA INDICATES THAT THIS WILL BE THE CASE WITH KUIN REPORTING 52 AND KBRL AT 38. THETA 290/295 SURFACES SHOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWERING ACROSS MISSOURI AT 06Z AND DRASTICALLY LOW ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI BY 12Z. AVN/ETA MIRROR THIS TREND WITH IMPLIED PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS ILLINOIS DURING THE MORNING. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND WITH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTING EAST BELIEVE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE DRY TODAY...EXCEPT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. ISENTROPIC AND QG FORCING ALSO SHOW PLENTY OF DOWNWARD MOTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. AFTER THAT MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ETA...HAVE DONE A FLIP-FLOP ON THE ARCTIC FRONT AND BRING IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MODELS NEVER HANDLE ARCTIC AIRMASSES WELL (EXCEPT FOR THE LFM) AND THEREFORE MUST BELIEVE THE FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. IF ANYTHING IT WILL PROBABLY BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. THIS WOULD PLAY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO BE TRICKY. FWC/FAN NUMBERS ARE NOT CURRENTLY HANDLING THE SITUATION AT ALL AND WILL NEED TO ADJUST ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. FOR PERIODS 2 ON GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE BUT WILL EVALUATE THIS FURTHER. ...EXTENDED... FOR THE MOST PART WILL NOT TOUCH THE EXTENDED AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING THE SHOTGUN APPROACH FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS. HOWEVER WITH THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ON THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ARCTIC FRONT BY THE ETA THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE EXTENDED BEING CHANGED BY THE DAY SHIFT. FOR THE TIME BEING WILL SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE EXTENDED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...ILX...AND STL. .DVN...NONE. NC il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1130 AM EST THU FEB 10 2000 MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE SYNOPTIC -SN TODAY AND POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WV IMAGERY INDICATED SHRTWV INTO NW MN IN POLAR BRANCH OF WRLY FLOW ACRS NRN PORTION OF CONUS. GOOD 850-500 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WAS SUPPORTING AREA OF SNOW OVER NRN MN AND NW WI INTO WRN UPR MI WITH VSBYS RANGING FROM 3/4SM TO 2SM. SHRTWV A BIT STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN 00Z MODELS FCST...PER SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND 12Z ETA OUTPUT. EXPECT SNOW TO ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS UPR MI THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...PER ETA/RUC QPF AND UPSTREAM TRENDS. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST AREAS OF FROM CMX NORTHWARD WL SEE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW. KMQT 88D SHOWED SCATTERED 20 DBZ RETURNS EAST OF KMQT WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. LIGHT LLVL WINDS AOB 10 KTS AND WIND SHEAR BTWN 4K AND 6K FT BACKING FROM 060 TO 280...PER VAD WIND PRFL...HELPING TO LIMIT BAND ORGANIZATION DESPITE LK-H85 DLT/T AROUND 14C. AS SHRTWV APPROACHES AND SFC LO OVER NE MO MOVES EAST SFC-900 WINDS WL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE NRLY...DECREASING AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO SYNOPTIC SNOW REGIME. INCREASING NNE FLOW INTO HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MQT SHOULD ALSO AID SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...AMOUNT OF ENHANCEMENT SHOULD STILL NOT AMOUNT TO MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO...GIVEN BRIEF DURATION OF SYNOPTIC LIFT...PERSISTENT SHEAR...FCST DRY AIR NEAR 850 MB...AND GENERAL ANTICYLONIC FLOW ACRS THE LAKE. 16Z TEMPS GENERALLY IN UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WITH THICK CLOUD COVER PCPN AND WEAK CAA...EXPECT TEMPS ONLY TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES AT MOST. GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. .MQT...NONE. JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1050 AM EST THU FEB 10 2000 RADAR SHOWS BEST THRUST OF PRECIPITATION...SNOW...PERSISTING FAR NORTH...WHERE WILL CONTINUE SNOW ADVISORY. WILL DROP ADVISORY IN THE REST OF THE CWA. BEST THRUST OF ADVANCING PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN. GOING OBSERVATION TREND SUPPORTED BY RUC...WHICH PUSHES FRONT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES AND WET BULBS ABOVE FREEZING IN DEEP LAYER IN FAR SOUTHEAST...AND 1500 TO 2000 FOOT THAWING LAYER ALOFT IN CENTRAL CWA WITH SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING. WILL MENTION LIGHT MIX IN CENTRAL...BUT SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH TROUBLE...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN LOW TO MID 30S. .DTX...SNOW ADVISORY...TODAY...MIZ047>049-053-055. DWD mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1005 PM EST WED FEB 9 2000 COMPLEX WEATHER PICTURES CONTINUES FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. QUESTIONS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. QUICK LOOK AT MESO-ETA SUPPORTS PREVIOUS THINKING WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE CENTRAL AND MAINLY RAIN IN THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE MESO-ETA INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. THE SOUNDINGS FOR THE CENTRAL COUNTIES LEAN TOWARDS MORE FREEZING RAIN THAN SLEET. THE SAVING GRACE IN ALL THIS IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. 00Z RUC SHOWS ALL THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OUT OF SE LOWER UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WAY THE SOUNDINGS LOOK I STILL BELIEVE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. QUESTION THEN TURNS TO HOW FAR WILL TEMPERATURES DROP TONIGHT... BECAUSE I DO NOT SEE THEN RISING TOO MUCH ON THURSDAY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE NORTHEAST WIND AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP THEN FROM RISING TOO MUCH. FOR TONIGHT... A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IS ADVECTING INTO THE STATE ON THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO NORTHERN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. I CAN SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT AND THEN NOT RISING BEYOND THE LOWER 30S ON THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT AS THIS WILL GIVE US AN INDICATION OF THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT HAS ADVECTED INTO THE STATE AND THEN THIS WILL IMPACT PRECIPITATION TYPE ON THURSDAY. WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL A BIG QUESTION MARK. HOPEFULLY NEW MODEL RUNS AND LATER OBSERVATIONS WILL HELP TO CLEAR UP THESE QUESTIONS. .DTX...NONE. KEYES mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 940 PM EST WED FEB 9 2000 00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP INDICATE SPLIT FLOW ACRS NAMERICA WITH 3 SEPARATE JET STREAMS NOTED: ARCTIC BRANCH IN CAN...POLAR BRANCH ACRS NRN TIER CONUS AND SUBTROPICAL BRANCH ACRS SRN STATES. NW GRT LKS IN CONFLUENT ZN BTWN ARCTIC AND POLAR BRANCHES WITH COLD SFC HI PRES RDG XTNDG FM LK WINNIPEG TO NRN LK SUP UNDER ASSOCIATED UPR CNVGC. STRG H3 JET MAX ALSO PRESENT IN UPR CONFLUENT ZN WITH 00Z INL WND 110KT. TWO SHRTWVS ALSO PRESENT IN FLOW: POLAR BRANCH SYS NOW MOVG INTO NW MONTANA AND STRGR SUBTROPICAL SHRTWV MOVG THRU SW KANSAS. WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD ASSOCIATED WITH MORE MOIST SUBTROPICAL BRANCH SYS WITH NRN EDGE OF THIS CLD NOW IN NRN IA. SEPARATE AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS WITH LGT -SN AT SFC IN BAND ACRS ND-MN NOW ENTERING WCNRL WI. APPEARS DVGC IN RRQ OF ARCTIC/POLAR JET AND LO LVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROF IN MN MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR PCPN WITH QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH MO SHRTWV STILL UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...INTENSITY OF THIS SN LIMITED BY DRY LYR BTWN H9-75 NOTED ON 00Z INL/MPX SDNGS ABV INVRN AND LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT (OSBVD LGT WNDS)/MSTR INFLOW CUTOFF BY SUBTROPICAL BRANCH SYS. -SN HAVING HARD TIME MOVG N OF KFAR-KAIT LINE INTO DRIER AIR. ONLY FLURRIES NOTED ACRS CWA AT 01Z WITH NOSE OF HI PRES E OF INVERTED TROF EXTENDING SWD ACRS ERN ZNS. MAIN FCST CONCERN TNGT IS AREA OF SN TO W AND PSBL ACCUMULATION OVR CWA. 12Z ETA DIFFERENTIAL DVGC FCST AND 21Z RUC PCPN FCSTS APPEAR TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON LATEST PCPN COVG. 12Z ETA F12 ALSO LOOKS BEST WITH MSLP PATTERN AT 00Z SHOWING INVERTED TROF BETTER THAN OTHR MODELS. ETA FCSTS INVERTED TROF TO HAVE HARD TIME PUSHING EWD TNGT INTO HI PRES RDG TO NE WITH BEST DIFFERENTIAL DVGC HANGING BACK TO W UNTIL H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG MO SHRTWV CATCHES UP TOWARD DAWN. GIVEN LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...XPCT PCPN TO HAVE HARD TIME BRKG OUT E OF MQT-ESC LINE AS DEFINED BY SFC RDG AXIS/ENHANCED LO LVL DRYING IN LO LVL NLY FLOW. ETA INDICATES H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC NEVER REALLY MOVES E OF THIS LINE. ALTHOUG H85 TEMPS LO ENUF FOR LK ENHANCEMENT...LO INVRN HGT... GENERAL ACYC FLOW...LGT WNDS...LACK OF ONSHORE WND COMPONENT ACRS WRN ZNS AND LO LVL DRY ADVCTN WL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LK ENHANCED SN. WL KEEP FCST FOR WRN ZNS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME OVRNGT BUT LWR POPS AND/OR DELAY ARRIVAL TIME OF SN E OF MQT-ESC. BASED ON RUC/ETA QPF AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS/UPSTREAM OBS IN SN BAND...CURRENT FCST SN ACCUMS LOOK RSNBL OVR WRN HALF CWA. LTL ADJUSTMENT NECESSARY FOR FCST TEMPS. COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB. .MQT...NONE. KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 930 PM EST WED FEB 9 2000 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS WITH TIMING THE ONSET OF THE SNOW...AND WILL UTILIZE THE LATEST TRENDS AND MESO-ETA/RUC MODELS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DETAIL IN THE UPDATED FORECASTS. 00Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A 1003 MB CIRCULATION ALONG THE CENTRAL OK/KS BORDER (ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM VORT LOBE)...WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING N INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NW TO FAR WRN SOUTH DAKOTA (ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE). THE MOST RECENT (21Z) RUC SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING BEST WITH BOTH SURFACE TROUGHS...AS TO BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BOTH MESO-ETA AND RUC MATCH UP FAIRLY WELL WITH 12Z RUNS IN TERMS OF STRENGTH...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF DYNAMICAL FORCING ALONG WITH LAYER AVERAGE MOISTURE AND QPF. STATIONARY FRONT OVER FAR SRN LWR MI AT 21Z HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER S AT 00Z. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS TAKING PLACE AS THE CONFLUENT DEFORMATION PATTERN CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN THE N-S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...AND IS ULTIMATELY WHERE THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK. CURRENTLY...TEMPS IN THE TEENS ACROSS UPPER MI AND FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 OVER FAR SRN LWR MI ARE MAKING FOR A DECENT TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE STATE. LAST SEVERAL WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THE SRN STREAM CIRCULATION TRACKING ALMOST DUE EAST...WITH THE CONFLUENT/ZONAL UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM INHIBITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (AMPLIFICATION) AND THUS NORTHWARD DEFLECTION. GREATEST SFC PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY EXTENDING TO EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...WHERE 12Z/18Z ETA TRACK THE LOW BY DAYBREAK THU BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES STRETCHED OUT. BASED ON LATEST OBS/MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE MID AND UPR MS VLY...ALONG WITH LATEST MODEL INDICATIONS...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE ONSET OF FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SET UP BETWEEN 09-12Z FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z...THE BEST FORCING/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE REMAIN NW AND SW OF THE REGION RESPECTIVELY...THUS CONTINUE TO EXPECT BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AFTER DAYBREAK. IN ADDITION...RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET FORCING WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A DRY...N/NE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...WHICH WILL LIKELY DELAY THE ONSET OF SNOW ACROSS THE NRN ZONES. IN FACT...DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DROPPING STEADILY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN UPR MI. WILL THUS CONTINUE WITH JUST CHANCE PROBABILITIES IN ERN UPR MI. UPDATED ZONES WILL BE OUT BY 10 PM. .APX...NONE. HURLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1005 AM EST THU FEB 10 2000 ...SINCE MHX HAS PLANNED TO DROP SCA, WILL FOLLOW SUIT FOR NRN WATERS... STRONG LO OFF THE CAROLINA CST TO LOSE ITS IMPACT ON THE CWFA THIS AFTN AS HI PRES BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF CST. PLENTY OF SUN OVER AREA ATTM BUT SAT PIX SHOW CI W/ NEXT S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE W. 12Z SOUNDINGS RATHER DRY SO AIRMASS ALF WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN. WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING. FCST MAX TEMPS FROM RAOBS, LO-LVL THICKNESS SCHEMES & LAMP GUIDANCE GIVE HI TEMPS ARND 70 FOR ALL BUT GRAND STRAND BEACHES. WILL RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR APPROPRIATE AREAS. CWF: CONDITIONS NOW BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 41004 SO WILL LOWER ADVY FOR SC WATERS. BORDERLINE 10M WINDS/SEAS AT FPSN7 SO WILL LEAVE UP FOR NRN WATERS ONE MORE FCST. FCST TRENDS LOOK GOOD AS PER 12Z RUC & 06Z MESO-ETA. .ILM...NONE. LGE nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 950 AM EST THU FEB 10 2000 STRONG LO OFF THE CAROLINA CST TO LOSE ITS IMPACT ON THE CWFA THIS AFTN AS HI PRES BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF CST. PLENTY OF SUN OVER AREA ATTM BUT SAT PIX SHOW CI W/ NEXT S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE W. 12Z SOUNDINGS RATHER DRY SO AIRMASS ALF WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN. WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING. FCST MAX TEMPS FROM RAOBS, LO-LVL THICKNESS SCHEMES & LAMP GUIDANCE GIVE HI TEMPS ARND 70 FOR ALL BUT GRAND STRAND BEACHES. WILL RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR APPROPRIATE AREAS. CWF: CONDITIONS NOW BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 41004 SO WILL LOWER ADVY FOR SC WATERS. BORDERLINE 10M WINDS/SEAS AT FPSN7 SO WILL LEAVE UP FOR NRN WATERS ONE MORE FCST. FCST TRENDS LOOK GOOD AS PER 12Z RUC & 06Z MESO-ETA. .ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC. LGE nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 200 AM EST THU FEB 10 2000 NICE LOOKING CLOSED LOW OFF THE SE COAST PER SATL IMAGERY... SPINNING SLOWLY NE ATTM IS PROGGED TO GET CAUGHT UP AND WEAKEN IN WLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36H. TAIL END OF THE WRAP AROUND CLDS ASSOC W/ THE LOW APPEAR SHOULD FINALLY DEPART THE COASTAL NC ZNS OVER THE NXT HOUR OR SO. TO THE W...A FAST PACED S/WV AND MINOR VORT MAXES ARE DIRECTING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD THE ERN STATES ATTM. EVEN W/ LEADING EDGE OF CI HAVING ALREADY ADVANCED INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS ...A WELL DEFINED ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA SHOULD SLOW THE CI UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SO SUNNY OR MSTLY SUNNY LOOKS GOOD TODAY. MODELS WEAKEN THE MAIN VORT FIELD MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS W/ AN EVENTUAL TRACK NW AND N OF HERE LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONT TO THE APPALACHIANS ON FRI...WHILE ANOTHER S/WV FARTHER UPSTREAM WILL FINALLY SEND A SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THRU SAT AFTERNOON OR EVENING. EFP ALREADY HANDLES THIS PRETTY WELL. AS FOR TEMPS...SFC RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE INTO THE CWFA LATER TODAY AND LLVL THICKNESS RESPOND. AVN/NGM ARE ABOUT 7 DEGS APART FOR TODAY W/ THE NGM THE WARMEST. LOCAL SCHEMES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WHICH IS A FAIR BLEND BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S LOOK REASONABLE TONIGHT...THOUGH PREFER WARMER AVN FOR FRI. CWF: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CLOSEST TO THE COASTAL WATERS HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST HR. SPEEDS AND SEAS STILL INTO SCA RANGE AT FRYING PAN. RUC CAPTURES THESE WINDS NICELY AND REFLECTS A DECR IN SPEEDS LATER THIS MORNING. UNTIL THEN WILL HAVE TO CARRY SCA. EXPECT SWLY FLOW TO COMMENCE THIS EVENING. PRELIMINARY CCF: ILM UB 069/048 072/049 067 29001 FLO UB 069/048 071/047 066 29001 MYR UB 067/049 069/050 065 29001 .ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC. PFAFF nc FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 840 PM CST WED FEB 9 2000 .CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW... EXAMINATION OF 01Z MSAS DATA SETS INDICATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POISED NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WHILE LOW PRESSURE/INVERTED TROUGH WAS DEPICTED FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA. LATEST IR SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS INDICATED DIMINISHING RETURNS ACROSS CWFA WITH MAIN ACTIVITY SHIFTING EAST INTO MINNESOTA. .SHORT TERM... BASED ON LATEST REAL-TIME OBSERVATIONAL TOOLS AND EVENING RUC MODEL APPEARS SOME REVISIONS NEEDED FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE. GAME PLAN IS TO TRIM BACK POPS TO PATCHY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED DUSTINGS IN SPOTS MENTIONED. UPDATE SHOULD HIT THE STREETS AOA 1000 PM. .FGF...NONE. BERG nd EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON 900 AM PST THU FEB 10 2000 LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FIRST PERIOD CONCERNS. THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE GEG/COE AREAS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES DOWN DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE. POTENT SYSTEM MOVING INTO CNTRL CA THIS MORNING WILL BEAR WATCHING IN CASE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/DYNAMICS GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT... HOWEVER THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY. THE 15Z RUC KEEPS THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS OVER B.C. TO OUR NORTH WHILE IT HINTS AT SOME SEEPAGE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ID PANHANDLE. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS...LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING NICELY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. AWH/RM ...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS... GEG 038/022/035 001 CQV 039/021/036 111 S86 036/018/031 111 COE 037/020/033 001 WWP 036/020/034 012 LWS 046/033/043 022 MOS 040/026/036 EAT 039/025/037 011 .GEG...NONE. wa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1200 PM EST THU FEB 10 2000 RESTRUCTURED ZONE PACKAGE THIS MORNING REMOVING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SE SECTION OF CWA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ANY POTENTIAL PCPN LIGHT AND MOVING PAST SRN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. ALSO LATEST RUC/ETA SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA. DECIDED TO LOWER ADVISORY AND COMBINE ZONE SPLIT SUGGESTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX. ALSO ADJUSTED SNOW ADVISORY TO REMOVE MASON AND GRATIOT COUNTIES. THIS WAS BASED IN COMBINATION WITH LATEST SAT/RADAR IMAGERY AND SPOTTER INFORMATION WITH REPORTS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS EARLIER TODAY. WITH PCPN MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THESE COUNTIES ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE HARD TO REACH. AS DAY PROGRESSES PCPN WILL CONTINUE EAST OF GRR FA AND PCPN POT WILL DIMINISH. MCINERNEY .GRR...SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NE SECTION OF CWA. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1130 AM CST THU FEB 10 2000 HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW HAS MOVED INTO METRO AREA AND WRN WI. LATEST RUC MODEL TRANSLATES MOISTURE UPWARD MOTION EAST OF AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. BAROCLINIC BAND SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL MN AND MARKS THE EDGE OF SNOW IN NRN PORTIONS. FORECAST REFLECTS DECREASING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES. .MSP...NONE. SCOTT mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 940 AM EST THU FEB 10 2000 RUC AT 18Z SHOWS CONTD DRY AIR OVER AREA. MOISTURE FM THE GLF IS CUT OFF WITH HI PRE CENTERED IN ERN GLFMEX. ALSO 12Z FFC SOUNDING IS VERY DRY. BUT THERE ARE MID AND ESPCLY HI CLDS OVR GA MOVG EWD THRU WK UPPR RIDGE. WILL LOOK AT 15Z SAT VISIBLE BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER TO INTRODUCE SOME CLDS THIS AFTN...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY. 850 WIND/TEMPS PATTERN SHOWS GOOD WARM ADV AS SWLY FLOW BECOMES EST BY LATE AFTN. BUT SINCE WE'RE COMING OFF OF GOOD RAD NIGHT WITH EARLY MORN MINS IN THE 30S...BELIEVE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70 STILL LOOK GOOD FM N TO S THRU THE CWA FOR AFTN MAX. .CAE...NONE. BLP sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1125 AM CST THU FEB 10 2000 CURRENT 88-D IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF SNOW EXTENDING FORM CENTRAL MN THROUGH CENTRAL WI. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE LATEST RUC QG FIELDS AND 300:500 MB PV ADVECTION. WITH SOME ENHANCED BANDS PUSHING TOWARD THE NORTHERN ZONE CUTS...WILL ADD MORE ACCUMULATION POSSIBILITIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE-WISE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE MAIN POOL OF COLD AIR JUST OFF TO THE WEST...AND ADVECTING MAINLY DUE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURE MORE STEADY RATHER THEN FALLING...ALTHOUGH WESTERN CUTS MAY SEE MORE OF A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES. .LSE...NONE. RIECK wi