SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 100 PM MST MON FEB 7 2000 ...MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING SYSTEM SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO COLORADO... FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO COLORADO TODAY FROM THE WEST...WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM/DRY POCKET OF AIR ABOUT TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONALLY...AS RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN...SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH/THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT/TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT TUESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A DAY OF GOOD MIXING...WITH PLENTY OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF WARM/DRY AIR FROM ALOFT. SO APPEARS WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A "WARM" DAY. QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING OF NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE (PRESENTLY OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST). AVN/NGM BRING THIS SYSTEM INTO COLORADO FASTER THAN ETA WITH RH PROGS INDICATING LEADING EDGE OF H7 MOISTURE GRADIENT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ETA...ON THE OTHER HAND...HOLDS BACK LEADING EDGE OF H7 MOISTURE GRADIENT TO POSITION OVER WESTERN UTAH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. NCEP SUGGESTS NGM/AVN SOLUTION IS BEST BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS AND ETA TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. HOWEVER...ETA IS THE ONLY MODEL OF THE THREE TO HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT THIS HOUR. THE SHORT TERM RUC/VISUAL INSPECTION OF WV IMAGERY TEND TO AGREE WITH THE ETA. SO...MAYBE THE ETA IS RIGHT IN BRINGING A CLOSED CIRCULATION INLAND AT A SLOWER PACE BEFORE OPENING IT UP AND MOVING IT EASTWARD. YET THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THE AVN/NGM TO BE RIGHT TOO. CONFIDENCE IS AGAIN LOW IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SYSTEMS EASTWARD PROGRESSION TURNS OUT TO BE MUCH SLOWER...LEAVING IT DRY IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A RAPID PROGRESSION OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH. OF COURSE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS AT THIS RANGE IS OUT OF THE QUESTION. SO WILL BROAD BRUSH WITH...WINDY AT TIMES ALL AREAS...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP MEAN HEIGHTS LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THUS COOLER/CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. .PUB...NONE. LW co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 940 AM EST MON FEB 7 2000 CDFNT CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO ATTM ACCOMPAIED BY A LINE OF SQUALLS. GOOD PRES RISES BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CRUISE SE THIS AFTN...CROSSING BGM ARND MIDDAY THEN INTO NE PA THIS AFTN. IN THE UPDATE I'LL PRBLY DOWNPLAY THE FALLING TEMPS ACRS NRN AND CNTRL ZONES THIS AFTN (WITH XCPTN OF NRN ONEIDA) BASED ON CRNT OBS AND EXPECTATION THAT ANY NOTICEABLE TEMP FALLS WOULD BE VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD ACRS NY BASED ON RDR WITH CHC POPS NE PA. I MAY REWORD THE CLOUD COVER ACRS NYS FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO VAR CLDS. SIG BREAKS ACRS THE RGN BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS AND SAT ALSO SHOWS CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH THE RUC INDICATES WILL WORK INTO NRN ZONES THIS AFTN. MDL SNDGS SHOW THE INVERSION CRASHING WITH LOW LVL DRYING TWDS EVNG. HOWEVER WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF EVNG FLURRIES DUE TO PSBL/MARGINAL LAKE INFLUENCE EARLY ON. .BGM...NONE. BRADY ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 927 PM EST MON FEB 7 2000 PC IN FCST LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT AS STREAMS OF CI/SC MOVE SW TO NE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT ALSO LOOK TO BE IN REASONABLE RANGE GIVING CRNT DWPTS AND SOME WEAK MIXING. WILL MAKE SLIGHT CHANGE IN WINDS TO LIGHT BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH LATE...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE IN CWFA BEFORE DAWN. CWF: WEST WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY COME AROUND TO NORTH AS WELL WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL LOW WINDS A BIT DUE TO CRNT CONDITIONS AND LATEST RUC. .ILM...NONE. JFP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 245 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2000 FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED AROUND 2 AM ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL PVA MAX LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST OK. RUC MOVES THIS SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST TX BY 12Z WHICH SHOULD BRING THE SHOWERS TO A HALT IN AR SHORTLY AFTER 6 AM CST. WILL KEEP 20 PERCENT POPS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH ABOUT 8 AM THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. FRIDAY STILL COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. MOS TEMPERATURES THROUGH 48 HOURS LOOKS GOOD. DENSE FOG SOUTHERN ZONES WILL REQUIRE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY MORNING. PRELIMINARY CCF LIT 61/36/70/48 10/0/0/0 PBF 58/38/70/48 10/0/0/0 HRO 57/39/67/47 0/0/0/10 HOT 61/35/70/48 10/0/0/0 (16) .LIT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY SOUTHERN ZONES 52-53-62>69 EARLY TODAY ar AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 840 PM EST MON FEB 7 2000 AREA OF 1000-850 MOISTURE ON THE LATEST RUC IS SHOWN MOVING FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. 1000-850 WIND IS 300 AT 15 KNOTS WITH LAYER RH BETWEEN 60 AND 70%. THIS AREA ALSO HAS A SMALL SPOKE OFF OF IT IN NW LOWER AS WELL. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. FEEL THAT WITH INVERSIONS FALLING OFF OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS TURNING TO 250 AFTER 06Z SHOWERS WILL END IN NORTHERN LOWER. IN EASTERN UPPER (MAINLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY) MOISTURE PLUME WILL HOLD ON UNTIL AROUND 09Z SO WILL END THE SNOW AFTER THAT. WILL PROBABLY UPDATE ONE MORE TIME TONIGHT AS THE SNOW IN NORTHERN LOWER TAPERS OFF. .APX...NONE. LUTZ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 330 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2000 THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE AREA OF SHALLOW LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN SRN IA WHICH HAS BEEN EXPANDING NW TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST IOWA CWA ON THE LOW CLOUD ENHANCEMENT. THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE SFC RUC RH HINTS AT IT...AND BEGINS TO ADVECT IT BACK EAST AS EARLY AS 12Z. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT UP UNTIL ZONE TIME. TODAY IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE VERY MILD WITH FEW CLOUDS AND INCEASING SW WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE BREEZY CONDS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FCST SEEM OVERDONE. WILL STICK CLOSE TO GUID AND PREVIOUS FCST WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 IN THE WRN ZONES GRADING TO MID 50S NORTHEAST. MILD CONDITONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN NEAR GUID. MODELS BEGIN TO PART THEIR WAYS ON WED. THE AREAS OF AGREEMENT ARE INCLUDE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND SHRTWV ENERGY FLATTENING THE WRN RIDGE WITH A PIECE EMERGING INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. SFC SOLUTIONS DIFFER DRAMATICALLY WITH BOTH NGM AND AVN KEEPING THE AREA IN THE WARM AIR...WITH AVN MOS APPARENTLY ENTERING THE REALM OF FANTASY AROUND 10F WARMER THAN THE NGM. CONSIDERING THE LOCATION OF THE BEST SHRTWV ENERGY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...PLUS THE MODEL BIASES...I CONSIDER SOMETHING LIKE THE ETA SOLUTION OF A SFC LOW IN KS TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN FURTHER NORTH. THE AVN TRIES TO COME AROUND TO THIS AT 48 HRS...BUT RETAINS ENOUGH OF A LOW IN THE NRN PLAINS TO KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S DURING WEDNESDAY. I WILL GO WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS TO KEEP A LID ON MAX TEMPS AT LEVELS CLOSE TO CURRENT FCST...AND SOMEWHAT BELOW NGM MOS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...SO DO NOT EXPECT SC THROUGH 48 HRS. 3 TO 5 DAY FCST CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. EVER SINCE BLOCKING SET UP IN THE ERN PACIFIC...THE MRF HAS TENDED TO MOVE TOO MUCH SHRTWV ENERGY INTO THE CNTRL PART OF THE COUNTRY AS STRONG VORT CENTERS AND ASSOCIATED COHERENT SFC LOWS. ALTHOUGH THE WRN RIDGE IS BREAKING DOWN...I STILL FAVOR THE OVERALL ECMWF PATTERN OF WEAKER FEATURES THAT ARE GENERALLY FASTER MOVING. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BRING A CHC OF PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...POSSIBLY STARTING AS RAIN AND THEN CHANGING TO SNOW. IN KEEPING WITH ECMWF TENDENCIES WILL NOT ISSUE AN OUTLOOK...BUT WILL CUT TEMPS QUITE A BIT ON FRIDAY AND GET RID OF TSTMS IN THE FCST. THAT TSTMS EVEN LOOKED PLAUSIBLE ON YESTERDAY'S MRF RUN IS AN INDICATION OF HOW POORLY THE MODEL HAS BEEN PERFORMING. .OMA...NONE POLLACK ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2000 MAIN FCST CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE TEMPS...WINDS...AND AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. WV LOOP SHOWS U/L RIDGE TO THE WEST FLATTENING AND SHIFTING EAST AS UPPER TROUGH OVER E US PUSHES TOWARD E COAST. IR LOOP SHOWING INCRG CLOUDS TO W AND NW PUSHING OVER TOP OF U/L RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF S/W IN PAC NW. UPSTREAM GOES SOUNDINGS SHOW INCRG RH AT UPPER LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...MSAS ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWS INCREASING PRSR GRADIENT OVER CWA AS RIDGE SHIFTS SE AND LOW MOVES SE INTO N MANITOBA...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM TRENDS OF RUC AND ETA. FOLLOWED ETA MOST CLOSELY FOR FCST TRENDS THIS PD AS AVN LOW LEVEL TEMPS FOR WED APPEAR MUCH TOO WARM...ETA BRINGS COLD AIR SOUTH FASTER THAN AVN AND THIS APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. ETA TIME-HT SECTIONS SHOW SOME WEAK LIFT THIS AFTN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS AREA...ALONG WITH INCREASED MID-UPER LEVEL RH...SO INDICATED PTLY SUNNY TODAY. MSLP GRADIENT A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BREEZY FCST...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN. FEEL WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY OVER NE PORTION OF CWA...WITH ETA 925 WINDS OF 25-30KTS THIS AFTN AND SLIGHTLY TIGHTER SFC GRADIENT AS WELL. LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD BE VERY SIGNIFICANT THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY...THEN CHANGING OVER TO SLIGHT COOL ADVECTION AT 85H DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ENOUGH WAA EARLY...DESPITE CLOUDS...TO BOOST TEMPS TO UNSEASONABLY MILD VALUES. BELIEVE RECORDS ARE SAFE THOUGH...MAINLY DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER REDUCING INSOLATION. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCRS TONIGHT AS BAND OF HIGH RH...ALONG AREA OF STRONG 85H TEMP GRAIENT SLIDES SOUTH. LIFT APPEARS WEAK THROUGH WED THOUGH...WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL PVA OVER THE REGION AND CAA DEVELOPING AT LOWER LEVELS. THUS...WENT WITH RELATIVELY LOW POPS...30 PERCENT...FOR -SN ACROSS CWA. FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE CLOSE TODAY FOR HIGHS. FOR WED...AS ABOVE...FEEL FAN TEMPS TOO WARM...AND LEANED TOWARD COLDER FWC. ADJUSTED EARLY PORTION OF EXTENDED TO CARRY OVER CHC OF -SN INTO THU MORNING...AS ETA INDICATES SFC LOW STILL TO NW AND SHIFTING SE TOWARD CWA. .ABR...NONE LORENS sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 220 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2000 RATHER BENIGN SFC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING W/ BROAD HIGH EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO TEXAS. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. H20 VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE WRN US RIDGE. UPSTREAM...A S/W TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO NE TEXAS THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE W/ THE 00Z ETA/06Z RUC INDICATING A TAD STRONGER SYSTEM. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN WELL DEFINED VORT MAX EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY. EITHER WAY...THIS FEATURE WILL LOWER HEIGHTS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NRN GULF TODAY W/ THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE FLORIDE PENINSULA BY 00Z THU. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS SRN CANADA SLOWLY ERODE THE WRN US RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS W/ A RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. CLOSER TO HOME...SIG WX NIL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS W/ DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL...CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY WED. IN RESPIONSE...STRONG SFC-H8 WAA WILL KICK IN ACROSS THE REGION W/ H8 TEMPS APPROACHING +9C BY 00Z THU AND TO NEAR +11C BY 18Z FRI. WRLY FLOW ALOFT MAY TRANSPORT MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE REGION WED INTO THU. HOWEVER ...THIS WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING LEVELS 15-20F ABOVE CLIMO. AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED A CAT OR SO BELOW MACHINE NUMBERS FOR MIN TEMPS W/ MAXES IN THE BALLPARK. ALL POPS NIL... MEM 057/033 066/047 MKL 055/029 064/043 JBR 053/031 063/046 TUP 058/032 066/043 .MEM...NONE. CBD tn EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1005 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2000 TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE SO FAR WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER MANY AREAS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS NOTED WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE IN A FEW LOCATIONS NRN CWA. MORNING SOUNDINGS STILL FAIRLY DRY WITH A STRONG CAP OVER NORTH/CENTRAL PENINSULA...WHILE HIGHER PWATS AND A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE WELL TO THE SOUTH. RADAR INDICATING ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND NO LIGHTNING PLOTTED OVER SE STATES. LATEST RUC INDICATING VORT MAX WILL MOVE OVER NRN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHORTWAVE/STRONGER VORT DIGGING INTO GULF THIS MORNING WILL REACH ACROSS PENINSULA TONIGHT. CWA WILL BE IN RR JET QUAD THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE THEN AXIS OF JET WILL SHIFT S. WEAK INVERTED TROF NEAR E COAST FROM ABOUT THE CAPE SWD AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITING HEATING...THIS SHOULD HELP INHIBIT THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL EVALUATE 12Z RUN AND WATCH TRENDS BEFORE DECIDING ON THUNDER PROSPECTS SRN CWA FOR TONIGHT. PLAN TO UPDATE ZONES AND MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON TRENDS. MARINE...WINDS MAINLY WNW AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVER WATERS THIS MORNING. SHOULD HAVE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS ON WED WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. NO HIGHLIGHTS. .MLB...NONE. GLITTO fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 945 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2000 CURRENTLY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LIGHT NW-N FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE FL E COAST. AN ILL-DEFINED LOW IS ESTIMATED 60-90 NM E OR ESE OF SGJ. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NRN CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. RUC MODEL MOVES THIS FEATURE EWD THROUGH THIS AFTN AND SHOULD HELP ENHANCE PRECIP OVER THE WRN ATLC ALONG SFC TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...THINK SHOWERS WILL STAY OFF THE COAST BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS. MAY MODIFY SKY COVER IN ZONES...MAINLY NRN PARTS. MARINE...WINDS ESTIMATED 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT. NEARLY ALL MODELS HAVE SFC LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE SO WINDS/SEAS NOT MUCH OF A PROBLEM EXCEPT PERHAPS N PORTION OF MARINE AREA. THEREFORE...WILL PROBABLY TRIM BACK AFTN FORECAST. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. ARS fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 540 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2000 FCST LOADED WITH CONCERNS THIS MORNING AS DEVELOPING SHRT WV THAT IS SHOWN CURRENTLY TO BE OVR NRN SASKATCHAWAN PER WV AND RUC ANALYSIS WL EFFECT UPR MI TODAY WITH WIND AND TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF SHOT AT SOME SYNOPTIC SNOW. ATTENTION TOMORROW TURNS TO LK EFFECT WITH SURGING ARCTIC AIRMASS...COMPLICATED BY DISCREPANCIES IN H8 TEMPS OF ETA AND NGM. HERE AND NOW THE WX IS FAIRLY QUIET OVR UPR MI AS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST OUT OF LOWER MI ATTM...RESULT HAS BEEN A GREAT RAD COOLING NIGHT AS MINS BOTTOMED OUT IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 RANGE...MINUS 9 HERE AT MQT. HOWEVER...GRADIENT TO WEST IS PACKING UP QUICKLY AND TEMPS ARE ON THE RISE AND THE WINDS ARE INCREASING (IWD METAR SHOWS 23009KT AND TEMP RISE OF 15 DEG IN 4 HRS). FOR TODAY THE WINDS WL BE THE LEAD STORY AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE LAST FEW SHRTWVS. ETA CROSS SECTIONS SHOW 40KT WITHIN 1K FT AT MQT AND 35KT AT CMX. AFTER BUSTING THE RAD COOLING INVERSION WITHIN NEXT FEW HRS WINDS WL PICK UP DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE FA. WINDS WL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE ALONG WI BORDER AND ERN FA AS GRADIENT AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL TEMP INVERSION WL WORK AGAINST IT. BY 21Z FA IS IN THICK OF WAA HIGH CLOUDS PER ETA FCST SOUNDINGS AND TIME CROSS SECTIONS...THEN THE ATTENTION TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR UPR MI AS ARCTIC FRONT AND SHRTWV ENTER THE FCST PICTURE. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE DECENT FORCING FOR PRECIP AS H8-H5 Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE...H7 OMEGA...AND QG FRONTOGENESIS ALL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE YOOP IN THE 21Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME...MOST PRONOUNCED FM 00Z TO 06Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LACKING AS H8-H5 RH AOA 80 PERCENT SLIDES TO FAR EAST FOR MUCH OF UPR MI TO TAP INTO THE REAL DEEP MOISTURE. YET WITH THE GENEROUS FORCING AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING OF THERMAL PROFILES PER ETA WL KEEP POPS STATUS QUO...WITH EXCEPTION OF BUMPING DOWN A LITTLE OVER SWRN UPR MI...WHERE FORCING WON'T INTERACT WITH MOISTURE AS MUCH AS IT WL OVR NRN FA. AS FOR TYPE AND AMOUNTS...PRECIP COULD BE MIXED WITH SLEET OVR WRN FA AS ETA AND NGM PROG ELEVATED WARM LAYER FM 3C TO 5C BY 00Z. BELIEVE SLEET INSTEAD OF FZRA DUE TO WET BULB ZERO NEAR ZERO AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL DRYNESS TO PREVENT ICE NUCLEATION. NO MATTER WHAT WL PROBABLY VRY SHRT LIVED AS DRY LAYER DOWN TO FREEZING LEVEL WL HELP IN EVAPORATION COOLING PARCEL TO LESS THAN 3 DEG SOON AFTER INITIATION OF PRECIP. WARMER TEMPS IN LOWER LEVELS COULD LEAD TO FZRA DOWN ALONG WI BORDER BUT AGAIN LAYER WL QUICKLY BE COOLED BY EVAPORTATION W/ DRY AIR. ONCE ALL SNOW GARCIA TECHNIQUE SAYS AROUND 2 INCHES FOR FA BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR WL KEEP CURRENT FCST OF AROUND AN INCH. WEDNESDAY FEATURES DIVING TEMPS AND SHOT AT LK EFFECT AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES IN FULL SPLENDOR. H8 TEMPS VARY BY 3-4 DEG BETWEEN ETA AND NGM...HOWEVER LOOKING AT DPROG/DT TREND IS FOR COLDER THAN PREV RUN BY ABOUT 2 DEG. RESULT WL BE TO BUMP UP SCT TO LIKELY POPS FOR ERN FA...AS INVERSION HTS REMAIN AROUND 3K-4K FT THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR THEME WL CONTINUE SO CHANCES FOR SIG ACCUMS ARE SLIM EVEN IF ETA H8 TEMPS OF -18 TO -20 VERIFY. COORD W/ APX...GRB .MQT...GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. JLA mi WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 905 AM MST TUE FEB 8 2000 A WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. LOCAL FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE KALISPELL AND LIBBY AREAS...AND POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS THROUGH LATE-MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY WITH TIMING OF BREAKOUT AND ITS INFLUENCE ON DAYTIME HIGH FORECASTS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT COULD LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE MONITORING SITUATION...WITH POTENTIAL UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. NO NEW MODELS TO LOOK AT THIS MODELS...YET. ETA/RUC LATE PER ADMNFD MESSAGE. JOHNSON mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 900 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2000 PLAN TO UPDATE ZONES TO CHANGE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SATELLITE AND RUC/MESO ETA FORECAST OF INCREASING HIGH LEVEL HUMIDITY. .CAE...NONE. RJL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1030 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2000 TEMPS WARMING NICELY THIS MORNING...WITH 10AM READINGS RANGING FROM NR 30 IN THE ERN CWA WHERE SOME SNOW COVER REMAINS...TO LOWER 40S IN SWRN CWA. A LITTLE THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON WARMING POTENTIAL WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION DOMINATING IN LOW LEVEL WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SW WINDS PICKING UP A BIT ALONG AND EAST OF BUFFALO RIDGE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT AREA AS WIND FORECAST MAY BE A TAD ON THE LIGHT SIDE. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...09Z RUC SOUNDINGS AND 14Z LAMP GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF GOING HIGHS...AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. .FSD...NONE sd EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON 830 AM PST TUE FEB 8 2000 HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ZONES TO BUMP UP POPS AND ADD FOG TO SEVERAL ZONES. 12Z KOTX SOUNDING WAS MOIST ALMOST ALL THE WAY UP. A SHALLOW LAYER OF DRY AIR AROUND 850 MB HAS ALMOST SURELY SINCE SATURATED. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE WELL OVER 0.5 INCHES. 09Z RUC AND 12Z ETA BOTH AGREE IN INCREASING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... ESPECIALLY FROM I-90 NORTHWARD. MOIST SOUTHWEST 850 MB FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 25 KTS...ADVECTING IN MORE MOISTURE AND WARM AIR. CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP SURFACE TEMPS DOWN...BUT THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED THAT LITTLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WOULD BE NEEDED TO CAUSE PRESENT HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5 DEGREES TOO COOL. TEMPERATURE AT SANDPOINT HAS QUICKLY RISEN TO 35F...ENDING ANY CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN THERE THIS MORNING. MULLAN PASS NOW REPORTING 33F...SO SNOW LEVELS MAY NOW BE CLOSER TO 5000-6000 FEET. BOTTOM LINE...LOOKS LIKE A WET AND SOUPY DAY. AWH/TC ...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS... GEG 042/030/039 882 CQV 043/029/040 982 S86 040/030/041 882 COE 044/029/040 881 WWP 040/029/038 883 LWS 050/038/048 462 MOS 045/031/041 EAT 040/031/042 640 .GEG...NONE. wa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1120 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2000 CURRENT FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WI LATE THIS MORNING. THE LATEST MESO-ETA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATED FROM 925MB ON DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LATEST RUC AND 12Z ETA ALSO SHOWING THIS SOMEWHAT. INVERSION HANGS IN PRETTY WELL...BUT THIS LOW CLOUD LAYER IS NOT THAT THICK. WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT MUCH OF THIS CLOUD LAYER TO DISSIPATE AS THE SUN "EATS AWAY"...BUT INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT SOME OF THAT. EXPECT THE LOW DECK TO ERODE TO THE WEST AND NORTH...WHILE SOUTHERN CUTS WILL LIKELY BE STUCK UNDER THE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL ADJUST THE ZONES FOR THE CLOUD TRENDS...AND ALSO COOL TEMPS A BIT ON ACCOUNT OF THE CLOUD COVER. .LSE...NONE. RIECK wi EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 410 AM PST TUE FEB 8 2000 MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW HAS ENDED AND DENSE FOG IS PRESENT ALONG THE COAST. THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MAY CAUSE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BEING OBSERVED IN THE LOWER LAYERS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 10000 FEET BY BOTH WSR-88D VAD WINDS AND ACARS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE REVERSING AND FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +5 MB KSAN-KIPL BY 09/00Z. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND TIME SERIES SHOW A CLASSIC WARM FRONTAL PATTERN WITH STEADY LOWERING OF THE BASE OF THE SUBTROPICAL CLOUD SHIELD TODAY. THEN DUE TO INCREASED ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LAYERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAKENED AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY GENERATING -3 UBAR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PER AVN MODEL...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THE ETA/MESOETA MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE MOISTENING OF THE AIR MASS AND THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. CURRENT FORECASTS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND POPS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH AVN SOLUTION. GIVEN AVN INITIALIZATION WAS MUCH BETTER TONIGHT AND APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING WELL IN VIEW ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HOURLY RUC MODEL UPDATES...ONLY PERFORMED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CUT BACK ON COVERAGE AND ONSET. AS FAR AS EXTENDED....SYSTEM ON THURSDAY MORE LIKELY TO PASS TO THE NORTH WITH MAIN EFFECT CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY MOUNTAIN AND DESERT WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE DID HAVE POPS FOR THIS DAY...ALREADY IN FORECAST SO LEFT IN BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MRF TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY IS MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE THE NEXT PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR SW CALIFORNIA. SAN 011 .SAN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM...CAZ043...SEE LAXNPWSAN. BALFOUR ca