AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1110 AM EST SUN FEB 6 2000 CLOUD COVER IS MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z KAPX SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT MOISTURE TO ABOUT 900 MB. WITH THIS MOISTURE IN PLACE...LIFT PROVIDED BY WARM ADVECTION...BY SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO INCREASING WIND FIELDS PER 12Z UPPER AIR DATA/UPSTREAM PROFILER WIND TRENDS AND BY COASTAL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. ALSO...LOW CLOUD COVERAGE HAS EXPANDED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE WEST UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. 12Z RUC/12Z ETA INITIALIZED LOW CLOUDS FAIRLY WELL PER 950 MB MOISTURE ANALYSIS...AND BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT FOCUS OF CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INLAND PER SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. WHILE SHALLOW NATURE OF MOISTURE AND LIMITED MIXING MAY BREAK UP CLOUDS TO SOME EXTENT...SC THAT DEVELOPED RAPIDLY HERE AT THE STATION AN HOUR AGO HAVE TEMPORARILY DISSIPATED...OVERALL TRENDS ARGUE FOR MORE PESSIMISTIC SKY COVER FORECASTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...PER WEAK RETURNS ON KAPX RADAR...WILL MENTION A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF VORTMAX TO WEST CONTINUE TO THIN OUT AS THEY ENCOUNTER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER REGION...AND THESE WILL LIKELY NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT SKY COVER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FINALLY...TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MINOR THIS AFTERNOON. .APX...NONE. ROWLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 915 PM CST SUN FEB 6 2000 AREA OF LOW CLOUDS TAGGING ALONG WITH WK SFC TROUGH HAS DIMINISHED AND CONFINED TO SE METRO...BUT HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER WRN WI ZONE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER TIGHTENING GRAD AND SLIGHT INCR IN WLY WNDS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS PROGRESSING EWD. FOG DVLPMT HAS BEEN LIMITED DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND SFC TROF AND INCR WNDS. OF MORE CONCERN IS POST FRONTAL PATCHY CLOUDS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MN. SFC FRONT HAS SAGGED THRU RRV TO DLH VCNTY CLOSE TO RUC SOLUTION. CLOUDS APPEAR PATCHY AT BEST AND 00Z UA ANALYSIS REVEALS UPSTREAM DRYING. BEST BET FOR PATCHY CLOUDS CLIPPING ERN SECTIONS OF ZFA LATE TNGT/EARLY MON. TAKING CURRENT DEWPTS IN CONSIDERATION...HAVE UPPED OVERNGT LOWS SLIGHTLY. .MSP...NONE. KAVINSKY mn FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 850 PM CST SUN FEB 6 2000 ...DECREASING WINDS/TEMPS AND CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FORECAST CONCERNS... MAXIMUM CAA NOW BARRELLING INTO NE ND ON HEELS OF CDFNT AND IN COMBINATION WITH 5 MB PRES RISES (PER 3 HR MSAS FIELD) PRODUCING GUSTY N WINDS OVER 20 MPH. ACTUAL CDFNT THRU BULK OF CWA XCPT FAR SSE WITH TEMPS FALLING RAPIDLY FROM VERY MILD AFTN READINGS. POST FRONTAL STRATUS ARRIVING IN PATCHES...WITH EVEN A FEW FLURRIES AT KFGN. AREA OF CLOUD APPROACHING GFK ATTM LINES UP WITH THE BEST CORE OF CAA AND GUSTIEST WINDS. XPCT THIS TO SAIL THRU ERN ND/NW MN REST OF EVE WITH GRAD THEN SLACKENING OFF AS NOW OCCURING N OF BORDER. CORE OF H85 35KT WINDS AND CAA TO SLIDE SE THRU NW MN BY 09Z WITH HI PRES SETTLING TWDS GFK BY 12Z. LIGHTEST WINDS W/B IN WRN CWA WHERE CAA/PRES RISES MINIMIZED AND WILL TAPER DOWN 10-20 MPH FCST DVL-VCY AREAS WHERE 5 TO 15 MPH CUD TURN INTO L/V BY 12Z AS HI APPROACHES. POINTS EAST OF RRV WILL CONTINUE WITH SUM GUSTINESS THRU MDNGT...ESP FAR ERN ZONES. WILL ATTEMPT TO FINE TUNE SUM WIND WORDING IN UPDATE. QUITE COLD ALRDY AROUND LK WINNIPEG WITH SINGLE NUMBERS APPEARING. LATEST RUC INITIALIZED WELL WITH CURRENT N/S BAROCLINIC ZONE AND CURRENT ZONES IN LINE WITH ITS 12Z PROJECTIONS...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPS TONIGHT. ONLY SEE PATCHES OF CLOUD COVER MAKING IT S OF BDR OVNGT...ESP IN N AND NE ZONES. ONCE BEST CAA SHIFTS EAST...LACK OF S/W ENERGY AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HI PRES WILL MAKE FOR ONLY TEMPORARY CLOUD PATCHES SO CURRENT PCLDY N AND MCLEAR S SHUD HOLD. UPDATE OUT BY 920 PM CST. .FGF...NONE SOROKA nd FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 1025 AM CST SUN FEB 6 2000 FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES. LOWER CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE YWG. LATEST RUC INLINE WITH 00Z MODELS IN BRINGING LOWER CIGS TO EXTREME NORTHERN PTNS LATE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER IN RELATIVELY MOISTURE SPARSE WAA ZONE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTHERN FA ATTM. WITH SOUTHERN AREAS NOT TO SEE ANY APPRECIABLE CLDS CURRENT CLOUD FCSTS LOOKS GOOD. WITH PLENTY OF SOLAR AND INCREASE MIXING SHOULD SEE GOOD RECOVERY AFTER COOLER START THAN YSTDY. RESULTING TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YSTDY SO ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST WILL BE MINOR. FGF...NONE. VOELKER nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1035 AM CST SUN FEB 6 2000 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CENTERED BETWEEN KFSD AND KSUX... WITH WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH THRU FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS. FAIRLY WEAK WIND FIELD WEST OF AREA THRU CNTRL/WRN SD WITH ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF FM SRN MANITOBA TO WRN SD...BUT GENERAL TURN TO WLY WINDS SHOULD OCCUR AS LOW DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS AS ALWAYS...BUT 15Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS...AND WITH NEARLY TOTAL SUNSHINE AND BARE GROUND/OLD SNOW COVER...THINK GOING TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK. ALL IN ALL...FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL SEND A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP MORNING/AFTERNOON WORDING SOME. .FSD...NONE sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 955 AM CST SUN FEB 6 2000 SATELLLITE INDICATING CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...STILL SOME SC OVER NORTHEAST CORNER CWA. RUC INCDICATING WEAKER PRESSURE GRAD...LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE BECOMING WORDING AND TO DROP WINDS. .ABR...NONE MARSHALL sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1019 AM EST SUN FEB 6 2000 SFC RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY. THIS RIDGE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER AT 12Z (WHERE IT WAS ACRS THE QUE/ONT BORDER AND EXTENDING UP INTO JAMES BAY) THAN THE 00Z MODELS INDICATED. LOW PRESS TO MOVE FROM JAMES BAY ACRS QUE TONITE...AS A CF SWEEPS ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION AND INTO THE ST LAW VLY. 09Z RUC SHOWS WESTERLY SFC FLOW ACRS THE FA TODAY...WITH STRONGEST SW WINDS IN THE ST LAW VLY. ALSO SHOWS MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS TODAY...WHICH SEEMS A LIL ON THE COLD SIDE...AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. T1MAX TECHNIQUE SHOWS TEMPS IN THE 20S TODAY...WHICH ISN/T MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH OF AN "ARCTIC FRONT". SOME LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO CLIP NE VT EARLY TODAY AS WELL. VIS SAT PIX SHOW THIS AREA MOVING ACRS NORTHERN VT ATTM. THIS AREA (AND ANY ASSOCIATED FLURRIES) SHOULD CLR THE ENTIRE FA BY AFTER 16Z. WILL HANDLE ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT CLDS/PCPN WITH THE STF. FA TO BE UNDER H85 WAA (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN TIER) TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED MORE SUN INTO MOST OF THE ZONES FOR TODAY AND UPPED TEMPS A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE 14Z LAMP DATA. "POST-MORTEM": COOP OBS INDICATE THAT LAST NITE/S EVENT APPEARS TO HAVE DEPOSITED THE FOLLOWING AMOUNTS ACRS THE FA...SRN VT 0-1"... CHAMP VLY ABOUT AN INCH...ST LAW VLY 2-3"...NE/NC VT 1-4" (WITH SOME LOCAL REPORTS OF 6"+ IN SOME OF THE HIR TRRN)...NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS 2-4". SEE ALBRR5BTV AND ALBRR8BTV FOR THE SPECIFIC DETAILS. WORK ZONES GONE. FINAL ZFP IN A BIT. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 300 PM PST SUN FEB 6 2000 AS NOTED EARLIER...NEW MODEL RUNS MAKE A LOT LESS OF THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THAN PREVIOUS RUNS DID. EXCEPTION IS THE AVIATION WHICH BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND ENERGY INTO OUR CWA THAN DO THE ETA...NESTED GRID OR RUCS...IGNORING THE BLOCKING BY THE HIGHER HEIGHTS FORECAST FOR THE AREA. AVOIDING A YO YO EFFECT ON THE FORECAST...HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCES BY MORNING FOR THE FAR NORTH INCREASING IT TO A CHANCE FOR MONDAY THERE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR SOUTH AS A DELTA TO CENTRAL SIERRA FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND AT LEAST CHANCES FOR THE THIRD AND EARLY PART OF THE FOURTH PERIODS FOR MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ANY PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AM EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODEL BRINGS IN THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS IT AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A CLEARING AND DRYING TREND TAKES HOLD FOR FRIDAY. Randy Hartley .STO...NONE. BLU EE 040/051 037/046 035 69013 RBL CC 043/060 044/059 042 69023 SAC BE 044/062 045/061 043 69012 ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 250 PM CST SUN FEB 6 2000 FORECAST QUANDARIES: CLOUD COVER AMOUNTS...TEMPERATURES. CURRENT ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND LAPS/SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MS. WITH A "DRY" COLD FRONT STRECHING FROM THE CENTRAL MIDWEST TO FAR WEST TX. CWA PRESENTLY EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. 18Z RUC/12Z UPPER LEVEL CHART ANALYSIS SHOWING DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW WITH 500MB-300MB...50KT-70KT JET DYNAMICS. CURRENT CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS AREA "LINKED" TO UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. 12Z SUN MODEL RUNS REGIONAL INITIALIZATION AND PROGGED EVOLUTION THROUGH 00Z WED IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MS. WILL MOVE EAST OF REGION EARLY IN PERIOD. HOWEVER...GULF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z MON...AND BE REINFORCED BY NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SE INTO THE CWA BY 00Z WED. CURRENT "SUBTLE" SHORTWAVES PASSAGES IN RELATIONSHIP TO VORT MAX MOVEMENT INTO THE GRAND VALLEY OF MI. WILL MOVE EAST OF AREA AFTER 12Z MON. A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO REGION AND EXPERIENCE A "BROADER/DEEPER" AMPLIFICATION THROUGH 00Z WED. LATEST NCEP MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION EMPHASIZING THAT ETA/NGM MODELS ARE IN "BEST" AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL MODELS KEEPING PROB OF PCPN "CONFINED' TO THE GULF COAST REGION ONLY. WITH MODLES IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT REGIONALLY...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA/NGM SOLUTIONS IF ANY MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARISE. TONIGHT..."SUBTLE" SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MENTIONED ABOVE COULD BRING IN SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CWA/S NORTHERN PORTIONS. BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WORKING OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH CI CONTINUING TO PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BECOME MORE DOMINATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN AREA WIDE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE FORM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS BY 12Z TUE...BELIEVE DECREASING CLOUDINESS SKY CONDITION FORECAST VALID THROUGH 12Z TUE. TUESDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UPPER LEVEL "DRY" TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF REGION BY 00Z WED. EVEN WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES SURFACE AND ALOFT BECOMING "STRONGER" DURING THE DAY...AIRMASS MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD "SUPPORT" PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES...WILL GO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN BOTH AVN FAN/ NGM MOS VALUES FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS CWA/S NORTHERN PORTIONS. NGM MOS "UNDERESTIMATING" CLOUD COVER THROUGH 00Z TUE. WILL LEAN TOWARD A "COOLER" FAN AVN SOLUTION. NGM BOUNDRY LAYER TEMPERATURE SCHEME VALUES ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THESE VALUES. MODELS SIMILAR IN LOWS/HIGHS THROUGH REST OF FORECAST PERIOD AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY... BNA 033/055/030/047 0000 CSV 027/051/025/041 0000 .BNA...NONE. $$ 14 JBW tn SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 855 PM CST SUN FEB 6 2000 WEAK CDFNT AT 02Z EXTENDS FROM E OF CDS TO SW TX. ITS A SLOW MOVER. NGM IS THE SLOWEST OF THE 3 MODELS...AND THIS SOLN IS PREFERRED SINCE THERE DOES NOT AT PRESENT APPEAR TO BE A STRONG PUSH BEHIND IT. FNT SHOULD MOSEY ON INTO THE CWA TMRW...THEN OFF THE COAST TMRW EVENING. PROB FOR THIS EVENING IS WHETHER OR NOT TO MENTION SOME LGT SPKLS/DRZL PSBL BY DAWN FIRST PERIOD. ALL MODELS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. NGM/RUC QPF OUTPUT WOULD HAVE HAD SOME LGT ACTIVITY SW ZONES ALREADY. ETA VERY AGGRESSIVE BY DAWN WITH MOISTURE AND VERT MOTION. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR REASONABLE. THINK THE FNT WILL BE SLOWER THAN ETA INDC. VAD WIND PROFILE CURR SHOWING 15-20KT WINDS UP TO ABT 3K FT OFF THE GULF. THINK I WILL GO AHD AND MENTION SOME ISOLD SPKLS WITH NO POPS OVERNIGHT. IF ANY DEVELOPED...IT WOULD BE ISOLD AND LGT. CHGS TO TEMPERATURES MINOR IF ANY. CWF IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHGS THERE. 46/41/35 .KHGX...NONE. PRELIMS... CLL EU 051/069 040/067 O38 0200 IAH EU 050/070 044/068 040 0220 GLS EU 053/068 050/064 047 0220 tx TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1150 AM CST SUN FEB 6 2000 AS EXPECTED...WILL NEED AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE TO LOWER FCST MAX TEMPS TODAY. THICK CS REALLY HAMPERING HEATING WITH ONLY MESONET OBS IN CIMARRON COUNTY ON TRACK TO NEAR EXPECTED HIGHS. SATL SHOWING SOME BREAKS APPEARING OUT W AND S. 15Z RUC/REST OF 12Z MODELS AGREE WITH THIS TREND SO WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUDS IN SE ZNS LONGEST. NRLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AFTN WITH NEXT SURGE OF COOL AIR APPROACHING AFT 00Z. WINDS IN FAR NRN ZNS MAY BEGIN TO BACK AHEAD OF THIS BUT WILL DELAY ANY WORDING UNTIL SECOND PERIOD. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. COBB tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1100 AM EST MON FEB 7 2000 WILL BUMP FORECASTED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECASTED HIGHS AS OF 11 AM. READINGS COULD GO UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME. SOME LAKE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER INTO THE UP...WHERE 850 MB TEMPS ARE COOLER. LATEST RUC SHOWS 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SW LOWER MI...THUS ANY CLOUDS REMAINING...SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING. .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 950 AM EST MON FEB 7 2000 THE LATEST VISIBLE STLT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE MQT AND APX 88DS SHOW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OVER WHITEFISH BAY AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THE APX 88D SHOWING FLURRIES LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A RESULT OF A LAKE INDUCED TROF PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN ADVANCE OF THE COLDEST 850 TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS AND DATA SUGGESTS LAYERS ABOVE 850 MB WITH MOISTURE VALUES UNDER 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MOISTURE IN THE 1000/850 MB LAYER IS FORECAST TO STAY AROUND 60 PERCENT FROM TVC TO MBL TO CAD INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY DRYING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN NORTH THIS MORNING AND THEN SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO -18C OVER EAST UPPER TODAY AND TO -16C OVER NORTHERN LOWER. THEREFORE WILL BREAK OUT NORTHERN LAKE HURON ZONES FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND FLURRIES TODAY. FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER WILL GO WITH FLURRIES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE INTERIOR COUNTIES REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY. FOR EAST UPPER MICHIGAN WILL GO WITH FLURRIES WEST OF I-75 AND MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF EAST UPPER MICHIGAN. .APX...NONE. SWR mi SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 100 PM MST MON FEB 7 2000 ...MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING SYSTEM SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO COLORADO... FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO COLORADO TODAY FROM THE WEST...WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM/DRY POCKET OF AIR ABOUT TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONALLY...AS RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN...SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH/THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT/TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT TUESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A DAY OF GOOD MIXING...WITH PLENTY OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF WARM/DRY AIR FROM ALOFT. SO APPEARS WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A "WARM" DAY. QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING OF NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE (PRESENTLY OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST). AVN/NGM BRING THIS SYSTEM INTO COLORADO FASTER THAN ETA WITH RH PROGS INDICATING LEADING EDGE OF H7 MOISTURE GRADIENT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ETA...ON THE OTHER HAND...HOLDS BACK LEADING EDGE OF H7 MOISTURE GRADIENT TO POSITION OVER WESTERN UTAH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. NCEP SUGGESTS NGM/AVN SOLUTION IS BEST BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS AND ETA TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. HOWEVER...ETA IS THE ONLY MODEL OF THE THREE TO HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT THIS HOUR. THE SHORT TERM RUC/VISUAL INSPECTION OF WV IMAGERY TEND TO AGREE WITH THE ETA. SO...MAYBE THE ETA IS RIGHT IN BRINGING A CLOSED CIRCULATION INLAND AT A SLOWER PACE BEFORE OPENING IT UP AND MOVING IT EASTWARD. YET THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THE AVN/NGM TO BE RIGHT TOO. CONFIDENCE IS AGAIN LOW IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SYSTEMS EASTWARD PROGRESSION TURNS OUT TO BE MUCH SLOWER...LEAVING IT DRY IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A RAPID PROGRESSION OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH. OF COURSE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS AT THIS RANGE IS OUT OF THE QUESTION. SO WILL BROAD BRUSH WITH...WINDY AT TIMES ALL AREAS...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP MEAN HEIGHTS LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THUS COOLER/CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. .PUB...NONE. LW co