AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1000 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2000 EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL N OF THE FA IN CANADA...LOW CLOUDS...FLURRIES AND EVEN A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF C NY. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ENHANCED BY MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES. THE 12 UTC RUC MODEL SHOWS A BULLSEYE OF WAA OVER E LE STRETCHING OVER LO AND THE N ZONES. MAY GO A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD COVER....ESPECIALLY UP N. WILL LET THE NOWCASTS HANDLE THE FLURRIES. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART LOOK ON TRACK. .BGM...NONE. SMF ny FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 848 PM CST SAT FEB 5 2000 ...TEMPS UP NORTH/CLEARING SOUTH TONIGHTS FORECAST CONCERNS... SFC HI PRES NR CYWG THIS EVE BRINGING SKC/LGT WINDS TO NRN CWA WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO SINGLE DIGITS. U/L LO SPIRALLING IN SW ND BRINGING AREA OF MID/HI CLOUD TO SRN 1/2 CWA. THICKEST CLOUDS HAVE BEEN BACK TWD TAIL OF VORT MAX BTWEEN KDIK-KBIS WITH KBIS 88D SHOWING FEW ECHOES ARND 25 DBZ THIS EVE BUT NO SFC OBS WITH -SN. TRACK OF SFC HI PRES BIT FURTHER W THAN MODELS PROGGED...YIELDING LIGHTER WIND FIELD THAN XPCTD TONIGHT WITH EARLIER THINKING OF SUMWHAT STRONGER E GRAD ACROSS MORE OF CWA. MSAS PRES CHANGE FIELD STILL INDICATING HI PRES SHUD SLIDE MORE SE THAN S OVNGT...SWINGING L/V WINDS TWD E/SE ESP RRV AND W WITH FAR E/NE CWA HOLDING L/V LONGEST. ALRDY NEAR ZERO IN SUM FAR NW MN ZONES AND WILL LOWER THESE AREAS A BIT TO MENTION SUM BLO ZERO READINGS. AS WELL WILL CUT GFK AREA A TAD WITH ALRDY 9F AT ARPT AND 00Z ETA (GUD INITIALIZATION) SLINKS 0F LINE TO GFK BY 12Z. AREA OF CLOUD UPSTREAM N OF LK WINNIPEG IN ASSOC WITH NEXT S/W TO ROTATE ARND PARENT U/L LO. THIS TO SWING CDFNT THRU CWA LATER SUN...BUT WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF FEATURE ALRDY IN MB THIS EVE. XPCT BULK OF THIS TO ONLY SKIRT NE ZONES WITH LITTLE/NO INFLUENCE ON OVNGT TEMPS. FURTHER S...CLOUDS WITH S/W ALSO BEING HELPED BY IMPRESSIVE AREA OF H25 DIVERGENCE IN EXIT RGN OF JET. THIS WILL SLIDE SE OVNGT AND WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS CONFLUENT FLO. TIMING OFF LATEST RUC WUD YIELD CLEARING ALL OF CWA OVNGT XCPT PERHAPS XTRM SE BUT ITS INITIALIZATION LOOKS TOO SLOW. WILL THEREFORE FCST CLEARING ALL AREAS WHERE NOW CLOUDY AND KEEP TEMP FCST AS IS AS HERE WITH MORE CONSERVATIVE DROPS ALRDY INDICATED IN THESE AREAS. FEW SKY COVER WORDINGS/WIND/MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS W/B THE CHANGES THIS GO ROUND. .FGF...NONE. SOROKA nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 245 PM CST SAT FEB 5 2000 FORECAST QUANDARIES: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVEMENT TIMING...TEMPERATURES. CURRENT ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND LAPS/SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWING CWA UNDER "THE INFLUENCE" OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE AR. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES "WARMING UP" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WINDS BECOMING SW OVER WESTERN HALF OF AREA...AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 20. 12Z SAT UPPER LEVEL CHART ANALYSES/18Z RUC MODEL SHOWING CWA UNDER NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN BEGINNING TO PLAY A MORE DOMINANT ROLE IN OVERALL REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. 12Z SAT MODEL RUNS INITIALIZATION AND PROGGED WEATHER PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH 00Z TUE GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES PLAYING THE DOMINATE WEATHER SCENARIO ROLE THROUGH 00Z TUE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST BY 18Z SUN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND MOVES SE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY 12Z MON. ETA IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS BRINGING MAIN TROUGHING AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN TN BY 12Z MON. WITH PROGGED STRENGTH OF GULF RIDGING DEVELOPMENT BY 12Z MON...AS POINTED OUT BY LATEST NCEP PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...BELIEVE THAT ETA/S PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVEMENT UNLIKELY. WITH THIS IN MIND...PREFER AN AVN/NGM SOLUTION THROUGH PERIOD. TONIGHT..."BOTTOM" OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY "SKIM" ACROSS NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION TONIGHT. EVENTHOUGH AIRMASS MOISTURE POTENTIAL LOW...WILL CONTINUE SKY CONDITION WORDING OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OTHER AREA LOCATIONS. SUNDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS REGION THROUGH 00Z MON. WILL MENTION MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDINESS AS A RESULT. SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED...AFTER 00Z MON...IN RESPONSE TO SWLY SURFACE FLOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WORDING THROUGH 12Z MON. MONDAY...LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT DURING THE DAY. EVENTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE MOVEMENT ACROSS REGION EXPECTED...NO INSTABILITY AND LIFTING DYNAMICS PROGGED TO DEVELOP... A "DRY" PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES...NGM MOS "HIT THE BULLSEYE" ON LOWS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF REGION...MIGHT "SKIM" A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THESE AREAS. WILL GO WITH A AVN/NGM "BLEND" ON HIGHS SUNDAY...IN AGREEMENT WITH NGM BOUNDRY LAYER TEMPERATURE SCHEME VALUES...AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. NGM MOS SHOWING A DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVER REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS QUESTIONABLE....AND WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE CONSERVATIVE FAN AVN VALUES ACCORDINGLY. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY... BNA 021/047/035/055 0000 CSV 020/044/032/050 0000 .BNA...NONE. $$ 14 JBW tn TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1045 AM CST SAT FEB 5 2000 WILL UPDATE ZNS TO REMOVE BECOMING WORDING FOR WINDS. SFC OBS INDICATE WINDS ALREADY WELL INTO FCST RANGE WITH SOME LOCATIONS ABV. 12Z ETA/15Z RUC INDICATE STRONGER WINDS AT H8 AND ASSCD TIGHT SFC GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E ACROSS AREA THIS AFTN. TCC PROFILER ALREADY SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DIMINISHING WINDS IN LOWEST GATES. WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY CATEGORY FOR REST OF AFTN AND WATCH ERN ZNS AS THINGS MIGRATE E...MAY NEED TO BUMP UP TO 20 TO 30 THERE. HI CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE E ACROSS AREA WITH RUC INDICATING GENERAL DECREASE IN NE ZNS. MAY ALSO TWEAK CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY. WITH H8 TEMPS FCST TO WARM SOME 8C OVER YDAY...FCST TEMPS LOOK IN LINE. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. COBB tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 235 PM CST SAT FEB 5 2000 18Z SFC AND LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATING LARGE DOUBLE-BARRELLEL RIDGE CENTER COMPLEX EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA...DOWN TO THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY. SFC OBS INDICATING AMBIENT TEMPS HAVING TOUGH TIME JUST GETTING INTO THE 30S. LOOKING AT 12Z DVN SOUNDING WITH SUCH WARM AIR JUST ALOFT/STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION FROM H9-H85...THOUGHT A LITTLE MIXING WOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT SOME MID 30S ACRS THE CWA. DECENT SNOW COVER AGAIN WINNING OUT. THIS EXPERIENCE WILL LEAD TO A UNDER-CUTTING OF BOTH FWC AND FAN GUIDANCE HIGHS ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH LOWS FOR TONIGHT DON/T LOOK BAD...MAYBE A TAD COOL. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM ARE WITH CLOUDS AND TEMPS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHCS/TYPE CONCERN BEYOND 30 HRS. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE GENERAL TREND IN HANDLING OF UPPER FLOW...WITH SHARPENING WESTERN INTER-MOUNTAIN RIDGE THROUGH 48 HRS... SUBSEQUENTLY REINFORCING NORTHWEST FLOW ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST AFTER 18Z SUN. MODELS CLOSER THIS RUN...BUT STILL WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/HANDLING NEXT MAIN UPSTREAM S/W...RIPPLING THROUGH THIS NW FLOW ACRS THE AREA BY LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT. W/V LOOP INDICATING MODELS A BIT OFF IN THEIR INITIALIZATION WITH THIS VORT...NOW OVER EXTREME EASTERN MT AND SOUTHWEST ND. THIS FEATURE ENHANCING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS VORT GENERALLY PROGGED BY ALL 3 MODELS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACRS CENTRAL AND EAST IA FROM 00Z-06Z MON...WITH NVA/NEGATIVE OMEGAS BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND IT ACRS THE CWA JUST AFTER 06Z. MODEL TIME SECTIONS ALSO SHOW THIS TREND NICELY WITH DEEP LAYER DRYING IN SUBSIDENCE WAKE. MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE CLEARING WORDING FOR LATE SUN NIGHT WITH THIS NOW FASTER VORT PROGRESSION SCENARIO. AT 18Z...AVN ACTUALLY DOING BEST HANDLING DVLPNG SFC LOW DEPTH AND PLACEMENT OVER EAST-NORTHEAST CO...AND NORTHERN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL SD. AS SECONDARY NORTHERN LOBE OF SFC RIDGE SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY TONIGHT...WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT TO GLANCE ACRS THE CWA FROM THE EAST. WINDS LOOK TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THEN SWING SOUTHEAST BY MORNING. SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION SUPPORTS MODEL TIME SECTIONS OF GRADUALLY BUILDING DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY ALREADY SLIPPING SOUTHEAST NICELY ALONG THE RUC H7-H3 MB THICKNESS PATTERNS AND ENCROACHING NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. INITIAL CI SHIELD ON VIS LOOP IS SEMI-TRANSPARENT... SUPPORTING ONGOING PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR TONIGHT...BUT TAIL END OF SHIELD LOOKS TO THICKEN TOWARD MORNING BECOMING MORE OF A MOSTLY CLOUDY SET-UP. AS VORT ENCROACHES EAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL...PVA/POS OMEGAS TO BUILD ACRS THE LOCAL AREA AFTER 18Z SUN...LASTING TO 05Z- 06Z MON. MODELS THIS RUN CONTINUE WITH DRIER RUN-TO-RUN TREND...AND THIS TIME BASICALLY BRING SYSTEM AND IT/S ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH THROUGH DRY. FEEL THOUGH THAT WITH VIGOROUS VORT AND DYNAMICS PROGRESSING ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY...IT SHOULD WRING OUT AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON...AND LAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. LOWER LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ALL FROZEN PRECIP OVER MOST OF CWA...ALTHOUGH BRL FCST SOUNDINGS HINT AT POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT ICE PELLETS/SNOW GRAINS...OR EVEN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM 00Z-06Z MON. SINCE IT/S THIRD PERIOD...WILL FOR NOW GO WITH JUST FLURRY WORDING AND HOPE LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE MIXED/FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL. OTHER PARAMETERS ALSO DOWNPLAY PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH SYSTEM. H85-H5 CONVERGENT QG FORCING PRECEDES BETTER-MORE MOIST LMRH/S FOR PRODUCING MUCH PRECIP. 290 K ISENTROPIC SFC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW DECENT/OKAY LIFT BUILDING ACRS CWA FROM THE WEST FROM 18Z SUN...TO ABOUT 01Z-03Z MON...BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ONLY SATURATE DOWN TO A MARGINAL 50 MB DEFICIT BY 00Z. ...EXTENDED...NEXT TUE-WED-THU... EUROPEAN AND MRF BOTH PROGRESS LARGE SFC RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INITIAL EXTENDED PRECIP-FREE FCST. AS LARGE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND ENGULFS THE EASTERN CONUS...MID TO UPPER MS RVR VALLEY TO TREND INTO INFLUENCE OF BRISK RETURN FLOW ON ANTICYCLONE/S BACKSIDE. THIS SHOULD SET UP DVN CWA IN BREEZY AND WARMING CONDITIONS ON WED WITH THE 40 DEGREE MARK GETTING BREACHED...STILL NOT SURE IF QUITE AS WARM AS MRF VALUES THOUGH. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE WITH SPLIT STREAM FLOW REGIME... WITH POLAR VORTEX NORTH STREAM SETTING UP ACRS THE NORTHERN GRT LKS ...AND ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CONUS. FOR THE 2ND RUN IN A ROW...BOTH EURO AND MRF RUSH IN AND DEVELOP PACIFIC LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED. MRF HINTS AT LIGHT OVER- RUNNING PRECIP NORTH OF MAIN WARM FRONT ACRS THE CWA BY LATE WED AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DRY FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW THREAT/PROBABLY RAIN AT LEAST S. HALF OF CWA/ WED NIGHT AS SFC LOW PROGRESSES ACRS CENTRAL MO. SINCE ITS STILL FAR OUT...WON/T BREAK OUT WED NIGHT SEPARATELY YET AND WILL AWAIT ANOTHER RUN FOR CONSISTENCY CHECK. BOTH EURO AND MRF SWING SFC LOW UP THE OH RVR VALLEY ON THU... WITH H85/CRITICAL THICKNESS COOLING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF IT. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE SOME WESTERN GULF MOISTURE INFLUX INTO SYSTEM...AND THUS THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ON THU ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH HALF. COORDINATED WITH ILX...THANX. .DVN... IA...NONE IL...NONE MO...NONE HLADIK il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 344 AM EST SUN FEB 6 2000 SYNOPSIS: ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING FLURRIES TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THU OR FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: BUMPED UP WINDS AND EMPHASIZED GUSTS ZONES 3...4...10 TODAY AS S/W OVR CNTRL QUEBEC BRINGS LOW LVL WIND CORE INTO NH/VT/SRN ME BY MIDDAY. ALSO DROPPED WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ZONES 11...15...16... 17 AS TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS EARLIER GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. SHORT RANGE MODELS DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THIS S/W...NOW OVER CNTL QUEBEC PROVINCE. ALTHO LATEST SAT LOOP AND MSAS SLP AND ISSALLOBARS SHOW DISTURBANCE TO BE A LTL MORE POTENT LOOKING THAN 00Z ETA... CLOSER TO 03Z RUC. NXT FEW DAYS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE WEEK...A PRETTY UNCOMMON OCCURENCE AS OF LATE. UPR NW FLOW CONTS OVER NE US THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER VIGOROUS BUT DRY S/W PASSING THROUGH ON MON. INTERESTING SITUATION FOR THU/FRI AS SRN STREAM S/W MAY GET INTO MIX AS ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/W MOVES ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES. LATEST ATTM ECMWF/CAN/NOGAPS/AVN ALL AGREE ON GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS OF PATTERN. CAR MJ 012/902 021/000 010 10125 BGR BE 020/010 030/005 020 10013 .CAR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY SUNDAY FOR ZONES 001>006-010. GALE WARNING. COBB me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 850 PM EST SAT FEB 5 2000 WITH SFC HIGH PRS CENTERED IN THE DEEP SOUTH...AND A BACK-DOOR TYPE FNT ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH...SFC WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL BUT A FEW LOCATIONS FROM DECOUPLING. WILL LESSEN THE SPREAD OF FCST LOWS IN THE MTN ZONES. CIRRUS STILL ADVANCING ON THE AREA...BUT THINNING. LATER MODELS...18Z MESO=ETA & 00Z RUC...AGREE WITH EARLIER 12Z RUNS ON BRINGING THICKER CIRRUS INTO THE WEST AROUND 12Z...THEN EAST OF THE MTNS BY AFT. CURRENT ZONES WITH P CLDY IN THE WEST & M CLEAR IN THE EAST STIL LOOK GOOD. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED. .RNK VA...NONE. WV...NONE. NC...NONE. JJ va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1110 AM EST SUN FEB 6 2000 CLOUD COVER IS MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z KAPX SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT MOISTURE TO ABOUT 900 MB. WITH THIS MOISTURE IN PLACE...LIFT PROVIDED BY WARM ADVECTION...BY SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO INCREASING WIND FIELDS PER 12Z UPPER AIR DATA/UPSTREAM PROFILER WIND TRENDS AND BY COASTAL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. ALSO...LOW CLOUD COVERAGE HAS EXPANDED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE WEST UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. 12Z RUC/12Z ETA INITIALIZED LOW CLOUDS FAIRLY WELL PER 950 MB MOISTURE ANALYSIS...AND BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT FOCUS OF CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INLAND PER SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. WHILE SHALLOW NATURE OF MOISTURE AND LIMITED MIXING MAY BREAK UP CLOUDS TO SOME EXTENT...SC THAT DEVELOPED RAPIDLY HERE AT THE STATION AN HOUR AGO HAVE TEMPORARILY DISSIPATED...OVERALL TRENDS ARGUE FOR MORE PESSIMISTIC SKY COVER FORECASTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...PER WEAK RETURNS ON KAPX RADAR...WILL MENTION A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF VORTMAX TO WEST CONTINUE TO THIN OUT AS THEY ENCOUNTER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER REGION...AND THESE WILL LIKELY NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT SKY COVER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FINALLY...TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MINOR THIS AFTERNOON. .APX...NONE. ROWLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 950 PM EST SAT FEB 5 2000 PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES...THE SNOW FROM THIS EVENING IS RAPIDLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND AREA, AS WELL AS MOVING OUT OF THE CWFA. WHILE THERE ARE LAKE BANDS KMQT AND KAPX 88DS ARE SHOWING THAT THESE TOO ARE LOSING THEIR SUPPORT. 18Z MESOETA AND LATEST RUC SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE WAA THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT 850, AS WELL AS DRY AIR. IR SAT AND OBS SHOW THAT SKY IS CLEAR TO PC EAST OF I-75 WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP WEST OF THERE. IDEA IS TO MAKE THE CWFA MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER PROBLEM IS WITH THE WIND DROPPING OFF FASTER THAN PROGGED EARLIER, AND THE CLEAR SKY, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A LITTLE FURTHER THAN FIRST THOUGHT. SO WILL DROP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES F. ZONES OUT BY 0330Z. .APX...NONE. LUTZ mi TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 932 AM CST SUN FEB 6 2000 UPDATED EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THICK CI OVHD AND WIND SHIFT ALREADY THROUGH MUCH OF FA. LEFT TEMPS ALONE FOR NOW BUT WE MAY BE SHOOTING TOO HIGH IF CLOUDS PERSIST TOO LONG INTO THE AFTN. LATEST RUC/12Z ETA SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH EARLY PART OF AFTN THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR FM SW. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPS ONCE CLOUD TRENDS ESTABLISHED. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. COBB tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1035 AM CST SUN FEB 6 2000 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CENTERED BETWEEN KFSD AND KSUX... WITH WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH THRU FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS. FAIRLY WEAK WIND FIELD WEST OF AREA THRU CNTRL/WRN SD WITH ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF FM SRN MANITOBA TO WRN SD...BUT GENERAL TURN TO WLY WINDS SHOULD OCCUR AS LOW DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS AS ALWAYS...BUT 15Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS...AND WITH NEARLY TOTAL SUNSHINE AND BARE GROUND/OLD SNOW COVER...THINK GOING TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK. ALL IN ALL...FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL SEND A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP MORNING/AFTERNOON WORDING SOME. .FSD...NONE sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 955 AM CST SUN FEB 6 2000 SATELLLITE INDICATING CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...STILL SOME SC OVER NORTHEAST CORNER CWA. RUC INCDICATING WEAKER PRESSURE GRAD...LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE BECOMING WORDING AND TO DROP WINDS. .ABR...NONE MARSHALL sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 250 PM CST SUN FEB 6 2000 FORECAST QUANDARIES: CLOUD COVER AMOUNTS...TEMPERATURES. CURRENT ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND LAPS/SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MS. WITH A "DRY" COLD FRONT STRECHING FROM THE CENTRAL MIDWEST TO FAR WEST TX. CWA PRESENTLY EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. 18Z RUC/12Z UPPER LEVEL CHART ANALYSIS SHOWING DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW WITH 500MB-300MB...50KT-70KT JET DYNAMICS. CURRENT CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS AREA "LINKED" TO UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. 12Z SUN MODEL RUNS REGIONAL INITIALIZATION AND PROGGED EVOLUTION THROUGH 00Z WED IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MS. WILL MOVE EAST OF REGION EARLY IN PERIOD. HOWEVER...GULF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z MON...AND BE REINFORCED BY NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SE INTO THE CWA BY 00Z WED. CURRENT "SUBTLE" SHORTWAVES PASSAGES IN RELATIONSHIP TO VORT MAX MOVEMENT INTO THE GRAND VALLEY OF MI. WILL MOVE EAST OF AREA AFTER 12Z MON. A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO REGION AND EXPERIENCE A "BROADER/DEEPER" AMPLIFICATION THROUGH 00Z WED. LATEST NCEP MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION EMPHASIZING THAT ETA/NGM MODELS ARE IN "BEST" AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL MODELS KEEPING PROB OF PCPN "CONFINED' TO THE GULF COAST REGION ONLY. WITH MODLES IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT REGIONALLY...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA/NGM SOLUTIONS IF ANY MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARISE. TONIGHT..."SUBTLE" SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MENTIONED ABOVE COULD BRING IN SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CWA/S NORTHERN PORTIONS. BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WORKING OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH CI CONTINUING TO PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BECOME MORE DOMINATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN AREA WIDE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE FORM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS BY 12Z TUE...BELIEVE DECREASING CLOUDINESS SKY CONDITION FORECAST VALID THROUGH 12Z TUE. TUESDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UPPER LEVEL "DRY" TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF REGION BY 00Z WED. EVEN WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES SURFACE AND ALOFT BECOMING "STRONGER" DURING THE DAY...AIRMASS MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD "SUPPORT" PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES...WILL GO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN BOTH AVN FAN/ NGM MOS VALUES FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS CWA/S NORTHERN PORTIONS. NGM MOS "UNDERESTIMATING" CLOUD COVER THROUGH 00Z TUE. WILL LEAN TOWARD A "COOLER" FAN AVN SOLUTION. NGM BOUNDRY LAYER TEMPERATURE SCHEME VALUES ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THESE VALUES. MODELS SIMILAR IN LOWS/HIGHS THROUGH REST OF FORECAST PERIOD AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY... BNA 033/055/030/047 0000 CSV 027/051/025/041 0000 .BNA...NONE. $$ 14 JBW tn TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1150 AM CST SUN FEB 6 2000 AS EXPECTED...WILL NEED AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE TO LOWER FCST MAX TEMPS TODAY. THICK CS REALLY HAMPERING HEATING WITH ONLY MESONET OBS IN CIMARRON COUNTY ON TRACK TO NEAR EXPECTED HIGHS. SATL SHOWING SOME BREAKS APPEARING OUT W AND S. 15Z RUC/REST OF 12Z MODELS AGREE WITH THIS TREND SO WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUDS IN SE ZNS LONGEST. NRLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AFTN WITH NEXT SURGE OF COOL AIR APPROACHING AFT 00Z. WINDS IN FAR NRN ZNS MAY BEGIN TO BACK AHEAD OF THIS BUT WILL DELAY ANY WORDING UNTIL SECOND PERIOD. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. COBB tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1019 AM EST SUN FEB 6 2000 SFC RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY. THIS RIDGE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER AT 12Z (WHERE IT WAS ACRS THE QUE/ONT BORDER AND EXTENDING UP INTO JAMES BAY) THAN THE 00Z MODELS INDICATED. LOW PRESS TO MOVE FROM JAMES BAY ACRS QUE TONITE...AS A CF SWEEPS ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION AND INTO THE ST LAW VLY. 09Z RUC SHOWS WESTERLY SFC FLOW ACRS THE FA TODAY...WITH STRONGEST SW WINDS IN THE ST LAW VLY. ALSO SHOWS MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS TODAY...WHICH SEEMS A LIL ON THE COLD SIDE...AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. T1MAX TECHNIQUE SHOWS TEMPS IN THE 20S TODAY...WHICH ISN/T MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH OF AN "ARCTIC FRONT". SOME LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO CLIP NE VT EARLY TODAY AS WELL. VIS SAT PIX SHOW THIS AREA MOVING ACRS NORTHERN VT ATTM. THIS AREA (AND ANY ASSOCIATED FLURRIES) SHOULD CLR THE ENTIRE FA BY AFTER 16Z. WILL HANDLE ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT CLDS/PCPN WITH THE STF. FA TO BE UNDER H85 WAA (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN TIER) TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED MORE SUN INTO MOST OF THE ZONES FOR TODAY AND UPPED TEMPS A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE 14Z LAMP DATA. "POST-MORTEM": COOP OBS INDICATE THAT LAST NITE/S EVENT APPEARS TO HAVE DEPOSITED THE FOLLOWING AMOUNTS ACRS THE FA...SRN VT 0-1"... CHAMP VLY ABOUT AN INCH...ST LAW VLY 2-3"...NE/NC VT 1-4" (WITH SOME LOCAL REPORTS OF 6"+ IN SOME OF THE HIR TRRN)...NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS 2-4". SEE ALBRR5BTV AND ALBRR8BTV FOR THE SPECIFIC DETAILS. WORK ZONES GONE. FINAL ZFP IN A BIT. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt