AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 235 PM CST FRI FEB 4 2000 LATEST SFC AND MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATING LARGE SFC RIDGE SETTLING ACRS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A LARGE FIELD OF SFC PRESSURE RISES BUILDING ACRS THE UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE CLEARING TRENDS AND TEMPS... WITH SNOW POTENTIAL LOOKED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD/SUN NIGHT/. SHORT RANGE MODELS REASONABLY SIMILAR IN KEEPING UPPER MIDWEST IN NORTHWEST MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 48 HRS/12Z SUN/. SHARP UPPER RIDGE STICKING OUT LIKE A "SORE THUMB" THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO ALBERTA AND B.C....WILL BROADEN AS PACIFIC ENERGY PUMMELS AND DAMPENS IT OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. STEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR VORTEX WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN GRT LKS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. W/V IMAGERY SHOWING LAST OF MERIDIONAL FLOW VORT SPOKES...NOW ROTATING ACRS WI INTO IA. LOCAL 88D LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWING THIS FEATURE KICKING UP SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACRS THE CWA. MODELS ARE PICKING UP THIS LAST S/W REASONABLY WELL...AND EVENTUALLY ROTATE IT SOUTH OF THE OH RVR VALLEY BY 12Z SAT. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST VORT TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR AWHILE AS GENERAL NVA/NEGATIVE OMEGA REGIME SETS UP ACRS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 12Z UA ANALYSIS INDICATED NICE HEIGHT RISES AT ALL LEVELS ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALL 3 MODELS SIMILARLY SINK LEADING RIDGE CENTER AXIS SOUTH TO TX BY 12Z SAT...KEEPING EAST IA/NORTHWEST IL IN BIT OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD AID IN KEEPING A WEST-NORTHWEST SFC WIND GOING FOR MOST OF NIGHT...WITH IMPLIED WEAK MIXING NOT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT. STILL FEEL WITH CLEARING THAT DE- COUPLING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT UPSTREAM DPTS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS SHIFT OF LEANING TOWARD COOLER FAN LOWS TONIGHT...AND ONGOING LOWS DO NOT LOOK BAD. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES/TIMING QUESTION FOR TONIGHT...ETA AND RUC 1000-850 MB 70+ LMRH/S LINED UP REASONABLE WELL WITH EDGE OF CLEARING ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL MN AT 18Z. THIS 70+ LMRH CONTOUR BLOWS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. W/V LOOP SHOWING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING STREAK BUILDING IN BEHIND LAST VORT...SUPPORTING THIS PROGGED CLEARING TREND. WILL STILL WATCH SATELLITE TRENDS TOWARD ISSUANCE TIME FOR CLEARING TIMING IN 1ST PERIOD. W/V LOOP ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLING ACRS ROCKIES UNDER BASE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS HIGHER LEVEL RH FIELD LINES UP WELL WITH H3-H2 80-90 PERCENT LMRH/S AT 18Z. AS WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT CONCERNS LOOKING AT MOISTURE PUSHING EAST...QUESTION IF IT WILL PUSH ACRS SOME OF THE AREA ON SAT RUINING MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO BATTLE IT...BUT THESE HIGH LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA COULD SEE DENSE ENOUGH CIRRUS FOR PARTLY SUNNY WORDING SAT AFTERNOON. MAY LEAVE SOUTH CWA WITH /BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY/ WORDING IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT LEAVE MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. HIGHER LEVEL LMRHS CONTINUE TO BUILD ACRS THE CWA SAT NIGHT AS SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AREA...SUPPORTING ONGOING PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING. AS FOR TEMPS ON SAT...H9-H85 FLOW WILL BACK TO THE WEST ON SAT WITH H85 WAA. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS MODELS...FEEL THEY ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS H85 WARMING...LOOKING AT THIS MORNING/S UPSTREAM H85 TEMP POOL IN WHICH A WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRAW FROM. STILL WITH SOMEWHAT DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...MIXING WINDS... AND INSOLATION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WARMING TO NEAR 40 ON SAT...BUT SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLEVIATE THIS WARMING POTENTIAL. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN COOLER FAN AND FWC. LOOKING AHEAD AT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR SUN NIGHT...AVN ORGANIZES SFC LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM ACRS THE PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN PROGRESSES IT EAST...BUILDING LIGHT SNOW ACRS THE CWA SUN NIGHT. 290 K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS DECENT LIFT BUILDING EAST ACRS IA SUN NIGHT. CONDENSATION P-DEF/S SUGGEST THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE DVN CWA WILL BE FIRST TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE SFC BY 06Z MON. WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCE GOING FOR SUN NIGHT. ...EXTENDED...NEXT MON-TUE-WED... EUROPEAN AND MRF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MON WITH SHARP UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING ACRS THE WESTERN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...AND RESULTING L/W TROUGH ACRS UPPER MIDWEST. MRF IS WEAKER THIS RUN WITH UPSTREAM VORT IN THIS FLOW ROTATING DOWN ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...BUT MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING STRENGTH AS IT DROPS TOWARD TROUGH BASE. BOTH EURO AND THE MRF DO SIMILARLY SWEEP ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY ON MON. PRECEDING WAA/ISENTROPICS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE STILL LOOKS TO GENERATE SOME SNOW ON MON...BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT QUESTION AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. EURO AND MRF DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ON TUE...BUT STILL LOOKS DRY AS GENERAL SOLUTION BUILDS ANOTHER SFC HIGH ACRS THE AREA. LIKE EURO/S CONTINUATION OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE WESTERN ROCKIES...WITH RESULTING STEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ACRS THE MIDWEST. ALSO LIKE EURO/S FURTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF RIDGE AXIS ACRS IA...AS FEEL MRF LOOKS TOO FAR SOUTH. MRF AGAIN LOOKS WAY OUT TO LUNCH WITH HI TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY...WILL CUT WELL BELOW. EURO H85 TEMPS SUGGEST MID 30S AT BEST...AND WITH CONTINUING SNOW COVER WILL LEAN THIS WAY. BOTH MODELS RESOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME BY MID NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS LIKE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM OF ZONAL FASHION SETTING UP ACRS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW/POLAR VORTEX SHIFTING NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER. DVN CWA LOOKS TO INITIALLY TO GET CAUGHT IN-BETWEEN UPPER FLOWS AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRY ON WED. STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SUPPORTS MID-WEEK WARM UP WITH A POSSIBILITY OF BREACHING 40 DEGREES ON WED...BUT LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL FIGHT IT. .DVN... IA...NONE IL...NONE MO...NONE HLADIK il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 954 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2000 SYNOPSIS: HIGH OVER QUEBEC WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY. THE HIGH WILL FORCE A DEVELOPING LOW TO TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH TONIGHT RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS UPDATE WILL DEAL WITH THE EXTENT OF ANY CLOUDS THAT WILL CLIP MY COASTAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS FROM 12Z SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE FROM QUEBEC PROVINCE. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF SS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY CONCERN WILL BE COASTAL ZONES 29-30 WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD FROM SYSTEM HUGGING THE COAST. ETA RH PROFILES MAINTAIN SOME MID LEVEL RH THIS AFTERNOON AT EPO AND BHB. THEREFORE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH SKY CONDITIONS THERE AND GO P/S. ELSEWHERE WILL GO SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL WATERS: WILL GO 15 TO 20 KTS ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST MARINE REPORTS AND PER RUC/ETA WINDS FCST. .CAR...NONE. DUDA me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 845 PM CST FRI FEB 4 2000 PATCH OF CLOUDS IS SOLID OVER IA WITH EVEN SOME SNOW FLURRIES RIGHT UP TO THE CLEARING LINE. PACE OF CLEARING STILL NOT AS FAST AS EVEN 01Z RUC AND 00Z ETA 925 MB LEVELS INDICATE. BUT CURRENT TRENDS SHOW THAT THE BACK EDGE IS MOVING STEADILY SE AND THE MODELS ARE ALL BULLISH ON CONTINUING THE TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO, WILL BACK UP THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING A BIT. TEMPTATION WOULD BE TO RAISE TEMPS WITH SLOWER RATE OF CLEARING...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STILL SOME SNOW COVER...READINGS COULD PLUMMET FAST. WILL LEAVE TEMPS AS IS. .DSM...NONE JUNGBLUTH ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 830 PM EST FRI FEB 4 2000 RUC/IR OVERLAY SHOWING DECENT VORT MAX STRADDLING THE SC/NC LINE THIS EVENING MOVING EWD. PVA ASSOC W/ THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN A SWATH OF CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA. IN THE BLYR CONDS REMAIN DRY W/ RATHER LARGE T-TD SPREAD...SO SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE RETURNS ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...A FEW SPRINKLES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE UPDATE. WILL ALSO HAVE TO START OFF SKY CONDITIONS TOWARD THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE GIVEN CURRENT SATL TRENDS. RUC SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL...BUT DOES TREND TOWARD A DRIER COLUMN ONCE THE VORT SLIDES EWD LATER TONIGHT. COLDER AND DRIER SFC AMS NOTED UPSTREAM INVOF CLT/HKY. TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE CWFA ATTM...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TOWARD FCST VALUES AS CAA TAKES HOLD. CWF: SPEEDS NOT UP YET AT FPSN7...BUT WILL BE AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND AS LLVL CAA SPILLS ACROSS THE WATERS. BUOY 41004...LOCATED AWAY FM THE PRES TROF HAS ALREADY RESPONDED. CURRENT MARINE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LEAVE ADVSRY AS IS. .ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC. PFAFF nc FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 858 PM CST FRI FEB 4 2000 ...TEMPS/CLOUD INCREASE? FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT... CWA SANDWICHED IN BTWEEN JET STRUCTURES TNGT...ONE ASSOC WITH S/W IN ONTARIO AND THE OTHER E/W ORIENTED FEATURE IN ID/MT WITH PAC SYSTM. RESULT HAS BEEN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH SKC AS CONFLUENCE REGION CENTERS OVER SE ND. AT SFC...RIDGE AXIS SLICING THRU CNTRL ND CONTINUES TO SHRINK THE BULK OF THE CI SHIELD APPRCHNG FROM THE W. MUCH FURTHER N...E/W CDFNT ACRSS CNTRL MANITOBA WITH WIND SHIFT TO N AND BROKERN AREA OF MID CLOUD AHEAD OF IT AND SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND. MID LEVEL RIDGE TO GET KNOCKED DOWN OVNGT FLO STRENGTHENS FROM THE NW. SFC FLO KEEPING LOWER ATMSPHRE MIXED WELL THIS EVE AND TEMPS QUITE MILD...XCPT FOR FAR E ZONES UNDERNEATH CORE OF COLD HI PRES (PKD ALRDY 9F). SFC RIDGE WILL PULL INTO RRV BY 12Z AS CDFNT APPRCHES NW MN. PERIOD OF LGT WINDS LATER SHUD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL CLOSE TO PROJECTIONS...XCPT PERHAPS FAR NW WHERE DVL STILL 25F ATTM. LATEST RUC SHOWS SFC TDS HOLDING ARND 15F JUST AHEAD OF THE FNT 09Z-12Z UNDER WAA SO NO NEED TO FIDDLE WITH FAR NE LOWS EVEN THO SOME ARE NOW NEARING CURRENT RANGES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN REGARDS TO LOW CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE N OVNGT WITH BULK OF ENERGY/CAA HEADING TO OUR NE. WILL SCALE BACK TO BCMG PCLDY FAR NE INSTEAD OF CURRENT MCLDY. SUM CI CUD SNEAK IN FROM THE W...BUT THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHRINK ITS INTENSITY. AGAIN FEEL MCLEAR OR BCMNG PCLDY WILL WORK BETTER THAN INCRSNG CLOUDS HERE. CLOUD TWEAKING/FEW LOWERING TEMPS E AND RISING FAR W ONLY EVENING CHANGES XPCTD WITH THIS UPDATE. .FGF...NONE. SOROKA nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 900 PM EST FRI FEB 4 2000 NOW THAT THE SHSN ASSOC WITH THE VORT SWINGING ACROSS THE SRN APPLNS HAVE DSIPTD...FA IS INTO STRICLY CAA/UPSLOPE SHSN REGIME. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS IND THESE SHSN WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RUC/MESO-ETA. STILL A FAIRLY MOIST LOWER LAYER...FCST PW/S & LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS WOULD INDICATE AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES MORE ACCUM ON WRN SLOPES IN SE WV. WOULD EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. CURRENT THINKING IS TO KEEP THE ADVISORIES UP WHERE THEY ARE...SINCE THEY ALL COVER FAVORED UPSLOPE COUNTIES. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALLEGAHNY CO NC WHERE THERE HAS BEEN NO ACCUM SO FAR...AND I WILL DROP THEM FROM THE ADVISORY. WILL ADJUST FCST ACCUM AMOUNTS BASED ON MID EVENING REPORTS...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW MORE ZONE GROUPINGS. LOW TEMP FCSTS LOOK ON TRACK. MTN ZONES WILL HAVE MARGINAL WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDS TOWARD MORNING. WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY...BUT WILL MENTION IN ZONES & HIGHLIGHT IN WSW AND NOWCASTS. .RNK VA...WINTER WX ADVISORY TNGT VAZ007-009-010-011-015-020. WV...WINTER WX ADVISORY TNGT WVZ042>045. NC...WINTER WX ADVISORY TNGT NCZ001-018. JJ va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 319 PM CST FRI FEB 4 2000 FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO TX. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN U.S...WITH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. LOOP OF LATEST VIS SATELLITE PIX SHOWED LOW CLOUDS STEADILY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS MN AND WI. CLOUDS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON LINED UP REASONABLY WELL WITH LATEST RUC...ETA AND MESOETA 850MB RH FIELDS. 12Z MODELS REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR THRU 48HRS AND REASONABLY SIMILAR TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. NORTHERN BRANCH OF JET REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MAIN JET ENERGY AND SHORTWAVES TRACKING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THRU SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST AND ENDS UP CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUN MORNING. IN THE SHORT TERM...18Z RUC...12Z ETA AND 06Z MESOETA SHOW A RAPID DECREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER SOME EVENING CLOUDS...A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE WITH SOME LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS. PREFERRED BLEND OF NGM-FWC/AVN-FAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. FOR SAT THRU SUN...12Z MODELS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE 300MB MOISTURE TO STREAM OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OFF THE WEST COAST AND THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE REACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT AFTERNOON. 12Z MODELS REASONABLY SIMILAR IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL WORD ZONES FOR A BIT MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END VS. THE NORTHEAST END. FWC/FAN GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE BALLPARK FOR SAT THRU SUN AND USED A BLEND OF THE TWO. ETA AND NGM HINT SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS WI SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DROPPING THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LKS. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON SUN LOOK GOOD. LATER PERIODS OF AVN INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE OVER OR THIS AFTERNOON WORKS ITS WAY THRU THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY 12Z MON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS...WITH SOME LIGHT QPF INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MON. TREND HAS BEEN TO WEAKEN THIS SYSTEM WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS...BUT WILL LET CHANCE OF SNOW ON MONDAY RIDE FOR NOW. .LSE...NONE. RRS wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1033 AM CST SAT FEB 5 2000 FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHGS NEEDED IN SKY COVER AND WNDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPR LOW OVR MT WITH VISIBLE STLT IMAGERY SHOWING LTL MORE THAN CI AHD OF IT SPILLING OVER UPR LVL RDG. THUS WENT PT SNY NRN SXNS AND MSTLY SNY S. ALSO ADJUSTED WNDS TO FIT CURRENT OBS. TEMP WISE...FCST MAXS SEEM FINE BASED ON LCL RAOBS. WRM ADVCTN WL INCR SOMEWHAT AS SFC RDG MOVES AWAY BUT LATEST PROFILERS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK WNDS AND LTL VEERING W/HGHT. 12Z RUC 1000/850MB WAA NOT IMPRESSIVE TDA. .DSM...NONE SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 955 PM EST FRI FEB 4 2000 UPDATE WILL MAINLY CONSIST OF REMOVING EVENING WORDING. DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FORECASTED WELL BY RUC...SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SHORELINE AROUND MIDNIGHT...CLEARING WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST REACHING ALPENA...OSCODA BY 5 OR 6 AM. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED (AND CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF NIGHT FOR NORTHEAST LOWER)...CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. NO REPORTS OF -SN FOR PAST FEW HOURS...SO WILL REMOVE AND GENERALLY GO WITH BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. .APX...NONE. FARINA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 211 AM CST SAT FEB 5 2000 WELL...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS MAIN LOW CLOUD BAND FROM BNA- TUP AND POINTS EAST...AND ABOUT A 75 MILE AREA OF SCT-BKN STRATO CU ...AND THEN IT GOES BACK TO OVC STRATO CU OVER E CNTRL MO. MAIN COLD FRONT FROM ADW-GSP. 1035 MB HIGH OVER MLC/MKO WITH RIDGING THE MOST DOMINATING FEATURE AT THE MOMENT. 24 HOUR MAIN METEOROLOGICAL CHANGE IS WITH REGARD TO DEW POINTS WHICH ARE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER AND DRIER. SYNOPTICALLY...MAIN WEATHER FEATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE EAST COAST TROUGH...AND THE NW PACIFIC LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO POUND WA/OR/CA. H5 STRONG VORTEX ALONG THE BITTERROOT RANGE TO THE CABINET MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS OFFER DIVERSE SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO H5 SHORT WAVE INTENSITY...RH...AND TIMING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NGM AND AVN ARE INITIALIZING THE RH AND POSITION BETTER THAN THE ETA AT 06Z. NGM 90% RH MAY BE A BIT EXCESSIVE OVER GLACIER NP MT TO LITTLE BELT MTNS TO THE LITTLE BIGHORN BATTLEFIELD NATIONAL MONUMENT MT...BUT THE ETA IS MUCH TO DRY. FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS... ETA 925 MB TEMPS SEEM TO COLD BY 12-18Z...AND LATEST RUC CONFIRMS THAT INITIALLY. ETA 925 TEMPS ARE 4-6 C COLDER THAN THE NGM WHICH MAYBE A TAD TOO WARM...BUT ARE MORE REASONABLE. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN THE CWA TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. THIS SETS UP NICE RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO...HOWEVER WILL CHANGE ZONES FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL OFFSET PRODIGIOUS COOLING. BIGGEST ZONE CHANGE WILL BE WITH CLOUD COVER SATURDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT FOR TODAY WILL WATCH LAST IR SATELLITE PICTURE BEFORE 4 AM ZONE PRESS TIME ON THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD TRENDS OVER MO AND IL...TO ASCERTAIN HOW TO BEST WORD THE ZONES FOR THIS MORNING. THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS ARE PRELIMINARY...& ARE FOR COORDINATION... BNA 039/023 046/032 0000 CSV 036/019 042/026 1000 .BNA...NONE. JDG tn TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1045 AM CST SAT FEB 5 2000 WILL UPDATE ZNS TO REMOVE BECOMING WORDING FOR WINDS. SFC OBS INDICATE WINDS ALREADY WELL INTO FCST RANGE WITH SOME LOCATIONS ABV. 12Z ETA/15Z RUC INDICATE STRONGER WINDS AT H8 AND ASSCD TIGHT SFC GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E ACROSS AREA THIS AFTN. TCC PROFILER ALREADY SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DIMINISHING WINDS IN LOWEST GATES. WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY CATEGORY FOR REST OF AFTN AND WATCH ERN ZNS AS THINGS MIGRATE E...MAY NEED TO BUMP UP TO 20 TO 30 THERE. HI CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE E ACROSS AREA WITH RUC INDICATING GENERAL DECREASE IN NE ZNS. MAY ALSO TWEAK CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY. WITH H8 TEMPS FCST TO WARM SOME 8C OVER YDAY...FCST TEMPS LOOK IN LINE. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. COBB tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX 804 PM CST FRI FEB 4 2000 LATEST INFRARED/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATED SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS THEY MOVE INTO SHORT AMPLITUDE OVER THE REGION...THEY SHOULD TEND TO BREAK...SUPPORTING THE GOING FAIR WORDING IN THE FORECAST. THE 18Z MESO-ETA...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 21Z RUC WAS SHOWING WINDS VEERING TO A SE DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH INCREAS- ING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER THE BIG BEND/SOUTHERN TRANS PECOS REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THUS BRIEF LOW CLOUDS OVER THESE AREA ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER WITH DRY AMBIENT HUMIDITIES SE OF HERE...DO NOT THINK LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PRESENT A PROBLEM AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECASTS AS WRITTEN ARE FINE. .MAF... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. RSB tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1019 AM EST SAT FEB 5 2000 LOW PRESS CENTER TO MOVE ACRS EASTERN QUE TODAY...AS A TROF OF LOW PRESS DROPS DOWN ACRS THE REST OF QUE AND ONT. THIS FEATURE TO MAKE PROGRESS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY LATER TODAY. TROF TO DROP DOWN ACRS THE REST OF THE FA FROM THE NW OVRNITE TONITE. 09Z RUC SHOWS TEMPS GETTING UP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY 21Z TODAY WITH STRONGEST SW WINDS IN THE ST LAW VLY. H85 MOISTURE TO INCREASE AFTER 15Z TODAY EVERYWHERE ACRS THE FA...EXCEPT IN SRN VT. RUC ALSO HAS LT MEASURABLE PCPN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY AFTER 18Z TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE LIMITED WITH THIS SYS...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THOUGH. WINDEX SHSN STILL EXPECTED TONITE WITH FA IN NW FLOW AND HI 1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES. BUFCAN RADAR LOOP FILLING IN NICELY ACRS EASTERN ONT/SOUTHERN QUE ATTM. -SN BREAKING OUT AT MSS AND GTB ATTM AS WELL. GOES-8 SAT PIX ALSO SHOW CLDS SPILLING DOWN ACRS NORTHERN NY AND NW VT ATTM. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON LES THAT/S IN PROGRESS TO THE EAST OF LK ONT...BUT EITHER WAY THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS SHOULD SEE SOME SN TODAY. HAVE KEPT GOING FORECAST BASICALLY AS BEFORE WITH BEST CHC OF SN ON THE NY SIDE AND NO SN TODAY IN SRN VT. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD WIND FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND 14Z LAMP DATA. LOWERED TODAY/S MAX TEMPS AND WIDENED A FEW OF THE RANGES (WITH SFC TEMPS ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS MORNING) AS WELL. ONLY A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES TO ANY LATER PERIODS. WORK ZONES GONE. FINAL ZFP AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE 15Z OBS. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 230 PM EST SAT FEB 5 2000 LATEST VIS LOOP SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA. A BAND OF SC WAS NOTED SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE UP/NRN LWR. THIS FEATURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROF IN THE SAME AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION TODAY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THOSE CLOUDS WILL SINK AND THEN PCPN CHANCES FOR MONDAY. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH 48 HRS. LONG WAVE TROF CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH MONDAY. TWO FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH: 1) THE TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE STRAITS AREA AND 2) THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL CANADA THAT THE MODELS SHOW DIVING SE INTO THE LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SC IN THE NORTH LINES UP WELL WITH THE 925 MB 80 PERCENT LINE. BOTH THE ETA AND RUC BRING THE 80 PERCENT LINE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE NGM DOESN'T. IT MOVES INTO THE NRN FCAST AREA THIS EVENING BUT NEVER REALLY MAKES IT FARTHER SOUTH THAN A LDM TO ALM LINE. GIVEN THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM THE NGM SOLUTION APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE. WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE N/S CLOUD GRADIENT IN THE ZONES. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF LAKE MI INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL PRODUCE RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS TODAY. THOSE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME MID CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE DECENT 850-500 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE THERE ISN'T AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WITH IT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION FROM ROUGHLY 900 MB AND BELOW. WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON MONDAY AS A COUPLE OF VORT LOBES GRAZE THE NE FCAST AREA. WILL ADD SOME POPS TOO AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO -13 TO -14 WITH LITTLE SHEAR AND RH VALUES AROUND 65 TO 70 PERCENT SO LES MAY DEVELOP AGAIN. AS FOR TEMPS WILL STAY CLOSE TO FAN. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. TO START OFF...MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE NW WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN DURING THE NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION TO A MINIMUM. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN A STRONG PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES ONSHORE. SW WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO MI AND MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. SOME DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE MODELS CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT CROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. EUROPEAN TAKES IT RATHER QUICKLY EAST. WILL LEAN MORE WITH THE CANADIAN...WHICH HAS SHOWN DECENT CONTINUITY THE PAST TWO RUNS ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA...THE COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING IN BEHIND IT AND THUS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SNOW. .GRR...NONE. mi