AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 840 PM EST THU FEB 03 2000 LTST RUC2 VERIFYING WELL...KEEPING SHSN W/ IFR/MVFR VSBYS ALNG OR JST N OF MSN-DXN LN THIS EVNG. 18Z ETA PLACES BEST DEFORMATION ZN IN SAME LCTN THIS EVNG...THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TOT HE SW OF CWFA OVNGT. EVNG SNDGS SHW DRY AIR AT LWX BLO H8...XPLNG WHY RDR RTNS ENDING UP AS VIRGA. COMPARABLE RSLTS FM RNK...WHL PBZ A BIT MSTR...AS CAN BE XPCTD. HWVR...A CPL HNDTHS QPF PSBL PER RUC ALNG THE CDFNT...WHICH IS STL BACK ACRS OHIO/KY. 3HR SFC PRES FALLS WUD INDC LO WL TRAK FM SE LWR MI TO OFF JRSY/DEL CST. THUS...RLCTNT TO DROP POPS ALTOGETHR. WL SCALE WRDG BACK THO...KEEPING A SIMLR 40 POP FCST IN THE NRN AND WRN FRONTIERS. NO CHGS PLANNED BYD 1ST FCST PD. WL REVIEW 02Z MTR...MAKE APPROPRIATE TEMP AND WND CHGS...AND RLS ZFP BY 0215Z. .LWX...NONE HTS md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 935 AM EST THU FEB 03 2000 MRNG DATA SFC AND ALOFT INDICATE AN AREA OF MID DECK CLDINS MOVING E ACRS THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ATTM AS DEPICTED WELL IN SAT IMAGERY. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF A WEAK H5 IMPULSE MVG E WHICH 13Z RUC FCST TO BE E OF THE CWA BY 16Z. IAD SNDG INDICATES LAYERS SATRATED DOWN TO ARND THE H7 LVL THEN VERY DRY BELO THAT TO THE SFC. H8 TEMP AT -3C. DOPPLER RADAR ALSO INDICATES SOME RETURNS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF VIRGA WHILE A FEW FLAKES OR FLURRIES MAY BE REACHING THE GRND. WUD XPCT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS MRNG AS THE UPR FEATURE MOVES E OF THE AREA BY ELY AFTN. DATA INDICATE THE MORE INPORTANT LT SNOWS AS FCST ERLR FOR ELY TNGT IS STILL BACK OVER THE OH VLY AND VCNTY ASSOC WITH STRONGER UPR DYNAMICS AND THE CDFNT FCST TO MOVE ACRS THE REGION TNGT. MESO ETA WUD SUGGEST THAT CURRENT FCST WILL STAND FOR THAT PERIOD. OTW THAT'S IT FOR NOW...LATER. .LWX...NONE PAP md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 915 PM EST WED FEB 2 2000 PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING THROUGHOUT CWA. WEAK FORCING AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY SINK TO THE SOUTH AS UPPER AND SURFACE LOW MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY SURFACE AND UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MUCH OF THE VORT ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF OUR REGION. RUC SHOWS THIS SHIFTING FORCING OUT OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 12Z. IR SAT PIX SHOWING CLEARING ALREADY OCCURRING IN EASTERN UPPER AND FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE MID LEVELS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO THE LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE EXPECT SLOW IMPROVING TREND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL WORD APPROPRIATELY. PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF SINGLE DIGITS IN THE U.P. LOOKS GOOD BASED ON CLEARING AND VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN ONTARIO. WILL LEAVE TEMPS AS IS. .APX...NONE. FARINA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 820 PM EST THU FEB 3 2000 A COUPLE OF INTENSE MESOSCALE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHOWN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. NONE OF WHICH ARE HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE 12Z MODELS OR THE 18Z MESOETA, BUT A LITTLE BETTER BY THE LATEST RUC. THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS KEPT CLOUD TOPS ON THE COOL SIDE OVER SW LOWER AS IT COMBINES ITS FORCING WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. RADAR REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN RESPECTABLE, ESPECIALLY OVER SW LOWER AND BETWEEN LANSING AND DETROIT. GRR REPORTS AROUND 3/4 INCH OF ACCUM SINCE SUNSET OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THEIR AREA. FOG WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO JUDGE SNOWFALL RATES, BUT FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THIS MESOSCALE FORCING FEATURE WILL RESULT IN GREATER SNOWFALL RATES OVER SE MICHIGAN AS WELL, GENERALLY SOUTH OF M 59. THIS IS CONSIDERING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND 2 TO 3 G/KG OF MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. 12Z RUN OF THE ETA-6 DOES NOT SHOW MUCH MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS, SO WILL PLAN ON INCREASING ACCUMULATION TO 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF M 59 AND GO AROUND AN INCH FOR FLINT. LESS THAN AN INCH LOOKS GOOD FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB AS THEY WILL BE AFFECTED MORE BY THE GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF AS IT MOVES THRU OVERNIGHT. .DTX...NONE. BT mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 755 PM EST WED FEB 2 2000 FORECAST UPDATED TO INCREASE EXPECTED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TONIGHT TO 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE FROM MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-GRATIOT COUNTIES SOUTHWARD. 23Z RUC II AND LATEST KGRR-88D RADAR AND IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS VORT MAX NEAR CHICAGO...ENHANCING SNOW ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE WISCONSIN SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -3 TO -6C RANGE... LARGE WET SNOW CRYSTALS FALLING ACROSS THE SRN 2/3RD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ACCUMULATING STEADILY. SEVERAL REPORTS OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF NEW SNOW ALREADY HAVING ACCUMULATED IN THE MKG-GRR AREA. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED... EXPECT SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE ESE OVERNIGHT AND CONSEQUENTIAL SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY. LATEST RUN OF RUC II SHOWS CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT DPVA THROUGH 03Z ACROSS SRN 2/3RD CWA. FEEL MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF I-96 BY MIDNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MORE THAN 3 INCHES IS UNLIKELY. .GRR...NONE. GREENE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 400 PM EST WED FEB 2 2000 .SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION... CURRENT REGIONAL SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1003 MB LOW JUST E OF LUDINGTON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN OVER AND WEST OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A RATHER CONVOLUTED UPPER LOW WITH NOT ONE BUT A SERIES OF VORT MAXES...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE CURRENTLY WORKING S THROUGH MN. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE LIGHT SNOW COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE. THEN...DELIMA BECOMES TIMING AND EXTENT OF CLEARING...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES/COVERAGE A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. PER 12Z 300 MB RAOBS...THE ETA INITIALIZATION FARED BETTER THAN NGM WITH THE 130 KT JET MAXIMA CLOSER TO OMAHA NB...WHILE AT THE SFC THE ETA HAS MATCHED UP CLOSER TO REALITY AT 12Z AND 18Z IN TERMS OF THE LOCATION/INTENSITY OF THE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MI. VORT CENTER OVER MN CLEARLY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR AND ESP VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS NOT INITIALIZED AS WELL ON THE 12Z ETA/NGM AS COMPARED TO THE RUC. DESPITE THE INITIALIZATION DIFFS... THE 12Z RUNS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FEATURES THAT WILL AFFECT THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SLOWING DOWN THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRI...THUS THE CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IS MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S THINKING. .SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OVER SRN PORTION OF NRN LWR TONIGHT...WHERE THE WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. GIVEN THE WEAK DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AND (THUS) MID LEVEL MOISTURE/ICE NUCLEI AVAILABILITY...DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. OVER THE REST OF NRN LWR...EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO END BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CLEARING MENTION UNTIL FRI. OVER THIS REGION...WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS ICE SEEDING DIMINISH THIS EVENING. IN ERN UPR...CLEARING IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE OVER ONTARIO JUST EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE. HAVE WORDED FLURRIES EARLY FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THIS REGION AS Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY...DESPITE THE MORE DEFINITIVE UPPER RIDGING/CONVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...OPTED FOR PARTLY SUNNY VERSES MOSTLY SUNNY FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST...AT LEAST FOR THE NRN ZONES...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALSO...AS WINDS BACK FROM N TO NW... THINK THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SCATTERED...SHALLOW LAKE CLOUDS OFF SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN AS 900-850 MB TEMPS AVERAGE AROUND -12C. AT ANY RATE...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS EARLY ON OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NRN LWR UNTIL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. FRIDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT...THUS DID NOT SWAY FAR FROM FWC/FAN GUIDANCE. MODELS INDICATE RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVELS OVER THE REGION (700-500 MB RH/S BELOW 70 PCT)...DESPITE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT LOBE RACING TOWARD THE REGION. OPTED FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN ERN UPR MI WITH A LOW CHANCE OF WHAT WOULD BE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE KEEPING NRN LWR DRY (PARTLY CLOUDY). SATURDAY...AGAIN STICKING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE MODELS ARE UNDER- ESTIMATING THE MOISTURE DEPTH WITH THE NEXT VORT LOBE...ALONG WITH THE LAKE-AGGREGATE TROUGHING AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN OVER THE LAKES...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE SNOW CHANCES IN ALL ZONES. WORDED THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NW FLOW LK SUPERIOR AND LK MICHIGAN SNOWBELTS. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -15C/-16C WOULD RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH THESE TEMPS WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER...DENDRITIC GROWTH AND (THUS) SNOWFLAKE SIZE WOULD BE OPTIMIZED. THIS COULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY...WHEN DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A DOMINANT NNW-SSE LK SUPERIOR/ LK MI BAND BROUGHT 1"/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES TO A PORTION OF NW LOWER. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION... LAST 2 MRF RUNS CONTINUE TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN RUNS...SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOLLOWING THE POOR RUN ON TUESDAY. MRF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD ACCORD...AS IS THE ECMWF EXCEPT FOR THE RESIDUAL UPPER/SFC TROUGHING ON TUE (2/8) THAT IS NOT DEPICTED ON THE MRF AND CANADIAN. MUCH THE SAME STORY AS WAS NOTED WITH YESTERDAY'S RUNS...WITH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES/ CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS ROTATING ON THE BACK SIDE EVERY OTHER DAY. HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE RUNS TODAY IS A MORE AMPLIFIED ERN U.S. TROUGH BY NEXT THU AND FRI...ALLOWING FOR AN INTRUSION OF MORE ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH VERSES MARITIME FROM THE WEST. THE EXTENDED RUNS HAVE CERTAINLY TRENDED TOWARD A COLDER SCENARIO... NULLIFYING ANY POSSIBILITIES OF WHAT EARLIER LOOKED TO BE A WARMUP FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. .APX...NONE. HURLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 717 AM EST THU FEB 3 2000 IR STLT AND RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STRAITS AREA AND EAST UPPER MICHIGAN ARE SHOWING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES MID LEVEL DRYING OVER EAST UPPER AND EXTREME NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING HOWEVER THE SOUNDING IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE... AS UPPER LEVELS RETAIN SOME MOISTURE DUE TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING 500 MB VORT. THIS WILL HELP IN ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL UPDATE EAST UPPER AND STRAITS AREA THIS MORNING FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES... WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON STILL BEING OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. .APX...NONE. SWR mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 830 PM CST THU FEB 3 2000 VORT MAX SPINNING INTO S MN AT THIS TIME BUT SECONDARY TROF PIVOTING AROUND TO OUR NORTHEAST NEAR DLH. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI. LATEST RUC SHOWING CYCLONIC CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PUSHING INTO S MN AFTER 06Z. FORECAST GENERALLY HAS THIS HANDLED BUT WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TIMING. BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO DROP WILL BE IN WESTERN AREAS. .MSP...NONE. RICHARDSON mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 905 PM EST THU FEB 3 2000 RUC IS IN LINE W/ 12Z ETA RUN SHOWING MAINLY CHANNELED H5 VORTICITY FIELD ASSOC W/ TROF SLIDING INTO THE ERN US. LIFT AND RH CONTS TO BE LIMITED HERE W/ ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL...FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LAMP IS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN CURRENT FCST...BUT IS ALSO WARMER THAN CURRENT READINGS. W/ SW WIND TO POSS HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AROUND ISSUANCE TIME. CWF: WINDS UP TO SCA AT FRYING PAN...INCLUDING THE 10M ESTIMATE. SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO RESPOND W/ HGTS UP FROM 3 FT TO 5 FT. W/ IN 20NM OF THE COAST THE FETCH IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND SHOULD REMAIN SO PER RUC. WILL HOLD ONTO CONDITIONS JUST BELOW CRITERIA WHICH IS LIKELY A REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OMR STATIONS AND FRYING PAN. .ILM...NONE. PFAFF nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 910 PM CST THU FEB 3 2000 BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS OVER CWA...WITH WK SFC TROF PUSHING THROUGH AREA HELPING TO BUMP WINDS BACK UP A NOTCH. SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL CONTS ACROSS FAR ERN SD AND MN COUNTIES...SO WILL CONT THE MENTION OF FLURRIES. LAMP AND RUC SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL STAY ON THE WINDY SIDE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...DECREASING TOWARD 12Z. LATEST SAT PIX SHOW WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD BEGINNING TO LOOK RAGGED...SO THAT KPIR AND KMBG MAY GO PCLOUDY LATER TONIGHT. FOR RIGHT NOW...WILL LEAVE CLOUDY AND SEE HOW THINGS LOOK AROUND 06Z. TEMPS LOOK OK...BUT WILL BUMP UP A NOTCH FOR THE NERN COUNTIES AS CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING ALL THAT FAR. UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY. .ABR...NONE. HINTZ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 910 PM EST THU FEB 3 2000 SHSN IN SE WV/VA HIGHLANDS...AND ANOTHER AREA OF --SN OVER THE NRN MTNS OF NC. THESE ASSOC WITH UPPER TROF...OR COLD FNT ALOFT AS EARLIER SHIFTS POINTED OUT. HAD A CALL FROM ASHE CO NC & WAS JUST VERY LIGHT SNOW THERE. A BIT HEAVIER SHOWERS IN SE WV...BUT STILL JUST REDUCING VSBYS TO 3 MILES. ANOTHER AREA OF SHSN HV DEVELOPED OVER ERN KY...& APPEARS TO BE IN LEFT EXIT REGION/PVA AREA AHEAD OF A JET STREAK/VORT MOVG INTO WRN KY ATTM. THE RUC BRINGS THIS FEATURE IN SW VA AROUND 09Z...BUT NOTHING IN THE WAY OF PCPN. HOWEVER...I EXPECT THE AREA OF SHSN TO CONT MOVG EWD INTO THE FA...ESPECIALLY SINCE EARLIER SHOWERS MOISTENED UP THE LOWER LEVELS. GOING FCST WITH HIGH POPS STILL LOOKS GOOD. CURRENT MVMNT OF SFC FNT...WHICH IS INTO WRN KY...BRINGS IT NEAR BLF 08-09Z...ROA 11-12Z. THERE IS DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHSN BEHIND THIS FNT...EVEN FURTHER SOUTH & EAST THAN THE USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A BREAK BETWEEN THE SNOW TONIGHT WITH THE VORT...AND THE CAA SHSN FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT. CURRENT FCST HANDLES THIS WELL FOR NOW. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE TOO COLD WITH THE FNT NOT COMING THRU TILL NEAR MORNING. WILL RAISE MOST AREAS. WILL ALSO WORD BLUSTERY WINDS AS "BECOMING" IN THE MTNS. .RNK VA...NONE. WV...NONE. NC...NONE. JJ va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 845 PM EST THU FEB 3 2000 LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE BATCH OF SN OVR WV DIMINISHING AS IT ATMPTS TO CROSS MTNS. N OF AKQ CWA...SN HAS MADE IT TO THE COAST ACROSS N DE. RUC 500 MB VORTICITY FIELD SHOWS CHANNELED VORTICITY EXTENDING FROM WV BACK INTO NEBRASKA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH DARKENING ON WV IMAGERY JUST N OF THE MAIN POLAR JET. SEVERAL VORT CENTERS IN THIS FLOW WL QUICKLY MOVE E OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING ENHANCED AREAS OF SN...MAINLY ALONG AND W OF THE MTNS. ALL THIS SAID...FEEL ANY FLURRIES IN AKQ CWA ARE UNLIKELY TONIGHT...BUT BEST CHANCE WL BE WELL N OF RIC AND ON MD EASTERN SHORE. PREV ZFP MENTIONS OVERNIGHT FLURRIES THERE...AND WL LEAVE THEM IN THE UPDATE PACKAGE. HI LVL CLOUDINESS SOON TO LEAVE AREA AS UPR LVL DRY SLOT IS RAPIDLY MOVING IN FROM W. CIGS IN CNTRL VA CURRENTLY 6-10KFT...AND WL LIKELY NOT BE SCOURED OUT OVERNIGHT. MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A LYR OF MOISTURE ABV SFC SO WL WORD SKIES AS MOCLDY...XCPT IN S WHERE VAR CLDY BETTER REPRESENTS THE RELATIVE LACK OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND CLDS THERE. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE...AND NEARER TO OLD 12Z FWC NUMBERS. WL CHECK NEXT OBS TO TWEAK OVERNIGHT LOWS WHERE NEEDED. MARINE...NOTICED A SPIKE IN SEAS OFF FENWICK ISL EARLIER...BUT WITH WNDS BECMG SW WL NOT ISSUE SCA. OTHW NO FLAGS TONIGHT. .AKQ...NONE. TRA va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 940 AM EST THU FEB 3 2000 RUC MODEL SHOWS VORTICITY AREA FOCUSING PRECIPITATION BAND IN CENTRAL OHIO SLIDING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS PITTSBURGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD GIVE UP TO 2 INCHES IN OUR EAST CENTRAL OHIO ZONES. SINCE THE MAIN AREA IS INDICATED MOVING NORTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA WILL KEEP 1 INCH OR LESS IN NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. HAVE PUT OUT THE MORNING ZONES EARLY TO PICK UP THE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS. .RLX... WV...NONE. VA...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. .END/AAR wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 834 PM EST THU FEB 3 2000 UPPER CLOUDS EXITING CWA AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. CLEAR WORDING OVERNIGHT FOR ZONES LOOKS ON TRACK. DEWPOINTS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AROUND KAQQ WITH WEAK PARALLEL WLY FLOW. RUC PICKS UP ON THIS BY PROGGING A SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT TO SET UP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. WILL TWEAK MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN ZONE UPDATES ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO IN SW GA WHERE METARS AND RUC PROGS BOTH SUGGEST A DEWPOINT MINIMUM OVERNIGHT. COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS WILL SEE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SEAS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED. COMMENTS ARE WELCOME. .TLH... AL...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING FRI AFTN ALL ZONES. GA...NONE. TJT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING/ADVSY SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 155 PM EST THU FEB 3 2000 CURRENTLY: WV/IR SATELLITE ANIMATION AND RUC SHOWED MID/UPPER LOW POSITIONED JUST S OF BRO MOVING SLOWLY SEWD. E-W SHEAR AXIS ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF GULF COAST STATES EDGING SEWD AS WELL. PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION PER 15 MIN LGT DATA OVER CNTRL GULF MEX IN DIFFLEUNT REGION OF EWD MOVING RR QUAD OF 100+ JET MAX OVER N FL. THIS AREA HAS SHOWN DECREASING TREND AS IT MOVES TOWARD S FL W/ EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPY EXTENDING NEWD THRU MUCH OF FL PEN AND NRN EDGE SKIRTING OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. MAY YET SEE A FEW MID/HI CLOUDS BRUSH SRN PORTIONS OF FL CWFA REST OF THIS AFTN. EARLY AFTN TEMPS/DEWPTS IN LINE W/ FWC MOS AND SHOULD REACH FCSTD MAXIMA. LATEST TLH RH NOW 30 PERCENT AND INLAND FL ZONES SHOULD MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. SHORT RANGE/ZFP DISC: ONLY FEW SUBTLE DIFFERENCES NOTED DURING INITIAL 24 HRS...THEN MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THEREAFTER. S/WV TROF OVER WRN GULF MEX OPENS UP AND SHEARS OUT BY 00Z SAT. RATHER STRONG S/WV DROPS SEWD FROM GRT LKS INTO NERN U.S. CARVING OUT MEAN ERN CONUS TROF. OMEGA RIDGE BLOCK FROM SW CANADA WEAKENS AS TROF EDGES EWD TOWARD W COAST AND S/WV RIDGE ANCHORS OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/HIGH PLAINS. ETA RIDES STRUNG OUT VORT MAX A TAD FATHER NORTH THAN NGM/AVN THRU FRI. ALSO...NGM/AVN SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ETA W/ UPR TROF SWING ACROSS MID ATLC/SERN U.S. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT AND SOUNDINGS VERY SIMILAR AND KEEP MEAN RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT THRU 48 HRS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM LOW PRES IN LWR MI SWWD TO SRN OK DROPS SEWD INTO NRN AL/GA BY 06Z AND THRU THE CWFA BY 21Z. FOUS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT W/ FROPA FROM 12-18Z FRI...THEN DECREASE BRIEFLY BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT W/ GOOD CAA PATTERN BECOMING ESTABLISHED. LIMITED MOISTURE SO ONLY FEW MID/HI CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY FROPA FRI. AFTER MORNING TEMPS IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT...READINGS RECOVER NICELY FRI AFTN W/ HIGHS IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING AS ADVERTISED BY FAN FRI NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL HEDGE TOWARD FWC WHICH HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING FAN PAST FEW DAYS. AFTN MAXIMA SAT WILL ABOUT 8-12 DEGREES COOLER. HIGH PRES RIDGE SETTLES OVER CWFA SAT NIGHT AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S W/ HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND BIG BEND. LONG RANGE/EFP DISC: 00Z MRF ADVERTISING PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL-MILD TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CWFA AND MUCH OF SERN U.S. REMAINS LOCKED IN A STABLE W-NWLY FLOW ALOFT W/ SERIES OF S/WVS BRUSHING NERN U.S. AND SFC HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. ONE PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES SE ACROSS TN INTO CAROLINAS TUE W/ ANOTHER DRY FROPA. MOSTLY CLEAR AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS TO CLIMO ON TAP. FIRE WEATHER: RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET AGAIN FRI AFTN FOR ALL OF FL BIG BEND/ERN PNHDL ZONES EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST W/ AT LEAST 4 HRS OF MIN RH VALUES IN THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE. HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS AFT FROPA WILL PROVIDE GOOD DISPERSION. MARINE: N-NW WINDS BACK TO WLY TONIGHT...THEN VEER TO NW FRI AND CONT FRI NIGHT. SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 5-10 KT TONIGHT TO 10-15 KT FRI...AND 15-20 KT NEAR SHORE/20-25 KT OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND FROPA. WILL INCLUDE 'SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY NIGHT' FOR OFFSHORE LEGS. PRELIM CCF... TLH 031/066 030/054 0000 PFN 042/063 036/052 0000 DHN 038/060 031/050 0000 ABY 035/062 031/051 0000 VLD 033/065 032/053 0000 .TLH... AL...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING RMNDR THIS AFTN THRU SUNSET INLAND FL ZONES. RED FLAG WARNING FRI AFTN ALL FL ZONES. GA...NONE. MAJ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 245 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2000 SYNOPSIS: HIGH OVER QUEBEC WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY. THE HIGH WILL FORCE A DEVELOPING LOW TO TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH TONIGHT RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING WELL EAST OF THE AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES SUPPORT ETA RH TIME SECTIONS WHICH DEPICT A MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER NEAR THE COAST. FURTHER NORTH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER QB WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUN. THE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH TONIGHT RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES ALONG THE COAST. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN AREA OF MODERATE OMEGA AND A RIBBON OF HIGHER RH WILL YIELD SOME SHSN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS THIS MORNING SHOW LARGE RANGES (IE. -1 CAR VS -20 40B). WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A DEEP SNOW PACK WOULD EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE (AWAY FROM THE COAST) WILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WINDS TO TURN WSW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...THIS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY "WARM UP" TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY. MODELS USED FOR GUIDANCE THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE: GEM/ETA/AVN. NO LARGE DISCREPANCIES NOTED BETWEEN THESE MODELS. COASTAL WATERS: RUC INCREASES WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS BY 15Z WHILE 00Z ETA KEEPS WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. STRENGTH OF WIND TODAY DEPENDANT ON HOW FAST LOW MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC DEEPENS. FEEL ITS BEST TO GO BETWEEN THE 2 EXTREMES TODAY. AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT WIND TO BE LIGHTER FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL TURN WEST. CAR UB 014/908 021/901 014 14--2 222/213/00/05 BGR BU 023/005 028/009 021 14--- 222/222/00/05 .CAR...NONE. LULOFS me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 250 AM CST FRI FEB 4 2000 FORECAST CHALLENGES -- TEMPERATURES SYNOPSIS -- LATEST KOAX 88D REFLECTIVITY LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS WRN IA AND SERN NEB IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DROPPING SWD THROUGH IA AND INTO NRN MO. 08Z MSAS SURFACE DATA SHOWED THE BEST PRESSURE RISES IN THE SUBSIDENCE ZONE OF THIS SHORTWAVE OVER NERN NEB...RESULTING IN STRONG NWLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST -- IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE DURATION OF FLURRIES AND THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUD EROSION. LATEST UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATION ACROSS ERN SD CONTINUE TO SHOW FLURRIES...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION IN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...11U-3.9U IR CHANNEL SHOWS STRATOCU DECK EXTENDING NWD INTO ERN ND WITH SOME EROSION ON THE WRN EDGE. 06Z RUC DATA AT THE 925 AND 850MB LEVELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING UP THESE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON THAN THE 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS. WE WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND AND MENTION PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON IN ALL ZONES. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY AFTERNOON AS LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER WRN HIGH PLAINS BUILDS SEWD. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST WITH ONLY SMALL CHANGES MADE. TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY TOWARD MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE. SATURDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW STARTS OUT SWLY WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON...THE WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER WRN NEB. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE SUN...PBL MIXING WILL BE LIMITED BY AFTERNOON WITH THE BACKED WINDS...SO THE NGM HIGHS LOOK TOO WARM. THUS...WE HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AVN AND NGM TEMPERATURES. IN THE EXTENDED...THE NEW AVN ADVERTISES A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH SOME PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED. LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED...BUT WE WILL LOOK AT THE NEW MRF WHEN IT ARRIVES. .OMA...NONE $$ MEAD ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 230 AM CST FRI FEB 4 2000 SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND TEMPS STARTING TO SLOWLY FALL AS WINDS SLACKEN A BIT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN CA...S/W RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERMTN REGION AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. A 100+ KT H25 JET STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH A RATHER STRONG VORT MAX MOVING INTO NRN MO ATTM. THIS FEATURE IS A BIT STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z ETA/NGM AND BETTER REPRESENTED BY 06Z RUC. THIS VORT MAX WILL SWEEP THROUGH MIDDLE TN BY MIDDAY SHARPENING THE COLD POOL ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB VERY LITTLE TODAY WITH STIFF NW WINDS PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S. WX DEPICTION CHART SHOWS 3-5KFT CEILINGS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MO. GIVEN PROGGED TRAJECTORIES AND NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC (SFC-H8) LAPSE RATES EXPECTED HERE...WE COULD SEE SOME SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS WELL. FOR TONIGHT...SFC GRADIENT SLACKENS TOWARD MORNING AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN WOULD SUPPORTS MINS IN THE L/M 20S. WE COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS OUR NERN ZONES W/ MCLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. LONGER TERM...UPPER VORTEX REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS QUEBEC WITH TROUGHING SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAX/MIN TEMPS WILL RUN A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO ON SATURDAY. FWC TEMPS LOOK WAY TOO WARM FOR SAT NIGHT W/ SFC RIDGE DIRECTLY OVHD. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY 2-3 CATEGORIES. SLIGHT WARMUP IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND SFC RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST. 00Z MRF RUNNING LATE TNGT. WILL TAKE A PEAK AT THE NOGAPS...BUT DON'T PLAN ANY DRASTIC CHGS TO THE EXTENDED. PRELIMS (POPS NIL)... MEM 045/026 046/027 MKL 042/021 042/023 JBR 041/022 043/025 TUP 048/024 045/023 .MEM...NONE. CBD tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 215 PM CST THU FEB 3 2000 FCST CONCERNS ARE APRCHNG SHRTWV AND MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON LARGE SCALE TROF...THE DETAILS ARE SOMETHING ELSE. ETA DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WELL DEVELOPED VORT SEEN ON SATL APRCHG CNTRL MN. ETA WASHES IT OUT QUICKLY. NEW RUC SHOWS THIS FEATURE THE BEST...BUT ONLY GOES THRU 9 HOURS ATTM. WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUING TNGT AND INTO FRI MRNG...WILL KEEP PRECIP INTO THE FRI PERIOD FOR THE MORNING. NEXT FORECAST PRBLM IS DVLPNG NE WINDS LATE TONIGHT FROM 850 TO 500 MV LAYER. LAKE TMPS ARE MARGINAL...BUT LAKE EFFECT FLOW CHART BRANCES US OFF INTO THE LAKE ENHANCED BRANCH WITH A 1 TO 2 INCH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATION. ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY UNSTABLE BELOW 5 THSD FT LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS ABOVE 900 MB ALL BECOME NE. Q.G. CONVERGENCE IS CONFINED TO THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER WITH WEAK TO MODERATE CONVERGENCE. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED WL GO WITH UNQUALIFIED WORDING FOR LGT SNOW TNGT. WL LEAN TWRDS UP TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY WITH WELL DEVELOPED VORT. WL ALSO HAVE TO BUMP UP AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE LAKE SHORE ZONES. NEXT WEAKER SHORTWV IN N STREAM TEAMS WITH WAA TO BRING AT LEAST A MID LEVEL DECK INTO SE WI FRIDAY NIGHT SAT MRNG. ATTM LOW LEVEL SOUNDINGS NOT MOIST ENOUGH FOR ZL- THREAT...AND ALTHOUGH MID LEVELS MOISTEN...RH MARGINAL FOR LGT SNOW. .UWNMS...KEEPS 700 MB RH IN LONGER OVR SE WI FRI MRNG. QPF TAKES A WHILE TO SPIN UP IN THE EARLY PERIODS. .MKX...NONE. 0...0.../...0. $$ HENTZ wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 954 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2000 SYNOPSIS: HIGH OVER QUEBEC WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY. THE HIGH WILL FORCE A DEVELOPING LOW TO TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH TONIGHT RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS UPDATE WILL DEAL WITH THE EXTENT OF ANY CLOUDS THAT WILL CLIP MY COASTAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS FROM 12Z SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE FROM QUEBEC PROVINCE. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF SS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY CONCERN WILL BE COASTAL ZONES 29-30 WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD FROM SYSTEM HUGGING THE COAST. ETA RH PROFILES MAINTAIN SOME MID LEVEL RH THIS AFTERNOON AT EPO AND BHB. THEREFORE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH SKY CONDITIONS THERE AND GO P/S. ELSEWHERE WILL GO SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL WATERS: WILL GO 15 TO 20 KTS ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST MARINE REPORTS AND PER RUC/ETA WINDS FCST. .CAR...NONE. DUDA me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1000 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2000 CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...SO ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE. MESOETA AND RUC MODELS IN AGREEMENT BRINGING THE BEST FORCING ACROSS NE PA THIS AFT. CURRENT KBGM RADAR LOOP SUPPORTS THIS BY SHOWING RADAR RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THIS AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ACROSS THE C ZONES TO CHC CATEGORY THOUGH AND MENTION FLURRIES ALSO. TEMPS CURRENTLY RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN MOS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH FORECASTED TEMPS. .BGM...NONE. SMF ny FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 845 PM CST WED FEB 3 2000 ...WINDING DOWN OF SN/BLSN OVERNIGHT FORECAST CONCERN... KMVX 88D THIS EVE SHOWS DIMINISHING INTENSITY/COVERAGE TO SN RETURNS. STEADIEST -SN SINKING S INTO SE ND/WCNTRL MN WITH WRN EDGE ERODING. 02Z POSITION OF VORT MAX IN SRN MN CLOSE TO LATEST RUC PROJECTION...AS ITS INFLUENCE OVER CWA CONTINUES TO LESSEN. WEAKENING TREND ALSO ONGOING WITH EXTENT/INTENSITY OF HIGHER TOPS MUCH LESS THAN LATE AFTN PER IR LOOPS. OVERALL XPCT ONLY --SN/FLURRIES REST OF NGT WITH LITTLE ACCUM BFRE IT TAPERS OFF. WILL DROP ALL -SN MENTION NE AND NW AND TAPER OFF ELSWHERE. WINDS STILL QUITE GUSTY...AS GRAD IMPRESSIVE WITH 1041MB HI PRES IN NRN WY. HOWEVER...BEST CAA PATCH SLIDING INTO SD AND THINK STRNGST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN SRN CWA A BIT LONGER BFRE DIMINISHING AS THEY ARE NOW IN THE NE. YET ANOTHER SMALLER AREA OF CAA THO...COINCIDENT WITH GUD PRES RISES BEHIND TROF NR INTL BDR CUD SWING INTO NRN CWA IN NEXT FEW HOURS CAUSING BIT MORE GUSTINESS AND BLSN. LATEST MSAS WINDS SHOW 25KT WINDS IN THAT AREA N OF ROX SO WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND SUM MENTION OF BLSN AWHILE LONGER ALL ZONES XCPT FAR NW WITH STILL A LOT OF VSBYS ARND 3-5SM EVEN WHERE SN ENDED. CLOUD AREA QUITE SOLID ON 11U-3.8U IMAGERY ATTM...WITH WWD XTNT AS FAR BACK AS JUST E OF KMOT. AS HI PRES AND NVA NUDGES INTO CNTRL ND BY 06Z...XPCT MOIST TO BEGIN TO MOVE IN A SE DIRECTION WITH CLEARING GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE. FFM-DTL-PKD CORRIDOR LAST TO SEE ANY CLEARING (IF ANY) BFRE 12Z. THIS TO HAVE BIG IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS...WITH CLEAR AREAS NEAR LK WINNIPEG (CYDN) 3F ATTM. WAA PROGGED TWD 12Z...GUD MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHUD INHIBIT SIG PLUNGE BUT ANY CLEARING WITH FRESH SNOW WILL CAUSE DROPS LIKE NOW OCCURRING N OF BORDER. CURRENT ZONES CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMP DROP AND WILL MAINTAIN FOR THE MOST PART...BASING THIS ON EXPERIENCE OF SLOW CLEARING IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME. REMOVING EVENING WORDING AND ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS/-SN/BLSN MENTION MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. .FGF...NONE. SOROKA nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1003 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2000 RUC AND 06Z ETA CONTINUE TREND OF DROPPING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS THE SHORT WAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND...I WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST..REGARDING SNOW IN THE MTNS. I WILL NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP SOME...OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW MOVE IN. .GSP...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT NCZ033-048>050. RBN sc TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1048 AM CST FRI FEB 4 2000 LATEST LAPS ANLYS SHOWS SFC HIGH OVER NE CO. HIGH FCST TO DRIFT SE INTO CNTRL OK BY THIS EVE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. SUBSIDENCE ASSCD WITH DISTURBANCE ALLOWING SHARP BACK EDGE TO LOWER MID CLOUD DECK NOW COVERING SW HALF OF FA. 15Z RUC INDICATES CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE BY 18Z. NRLY WINDS ALSO STRONGER THAN EXPECTED THOUGH MOSTLY CONFINED TO ERN ZNS. WILL UPDATE TO CHANGE SKY CONDITIONS TO MOSUNNY AND INCREASE WINDS FOR REST OF MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN IN E. ALSO WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A BIT IN NW TO MATCH REST OF NRN ZNS. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. COBB tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1035 AM CST FRI FEB 4 2000 LATEST RUC AND ETA SOLUTIONS INDICATING THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN BY EVENING. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH 10 TO 20 MPH SHOULD COVER THE FORECAST. WILL CHANGE WORDING TO REFLECT A DECREASE IN SPEEDS BY THE LATE PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED AN UPWARD BUMP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. 12Z 850 ANALYSIS IS SHOWING TEMPS IN THE +1 TO +3C RANGE. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENT AS CAA CONTINUES AT THE 850 LEVEL. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK. 21 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX 1002 AM CST FRI FEB 4 2000 SENT UPDATE TO BUMP WINDS UP OVER MARFA PLATEAU...AND WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS AS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. WIND SPEED MAX AT 850 MB DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO 12Z RUC. CONSIDERING WINDS ON MARFA PLATEAU AND AT GUADALUPE PASS...THINK RUC HAS GOOD HANDLE ON SITUATION. WILL LEAVE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING...AND KEEP AN EYE ON EXTENDING IT PAST 18Z. 12Z RUC 850 MB TEMPERATURES MATCH UP WELL WITH 12Z KMAF SOUNDING... THEREFORE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES IN MANY ZONES. .MAF... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. AKL tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX 530 AM CST FRI FEB 4 2000 WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AT KGDP AND WILL HAVE TO ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNING. LATEST RUC APPEARS TO KEEP WINDS UP TILL AROUND NOON. WILL UPDATE ZONES. .MAF... TX...HIGH WIND WARNING GUADALUPE PASS TIL 18Z. NM...NONE. 72 tx