AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1030 PM EST WED FEB 2 2000 VORTICITY CENTER VERY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST WI...A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12Z MODEL RUNS PROGGED. MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO VERIFYING QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN PROGGED AS WELL...WITH 100KT 500MB JET ACROSS CENTRAL MN. AS EXPECTED EARLIER...NEARLY 200MB DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION HAS SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. STRONGEST DYNAMICS PRETTY MUCH OVER THE AREA ATTM PER MODEL QG FIELDS...AND THIS VERIFIED BY PRESSURE FALL CENTER RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. VIRGA HAS OVERSPREAD ENTIRE AREA...WITH RADAR RETURNS GRADUALLY LOWERING WITH TIME. SNOW HAS ALREADY REACHED THE U.S. 131 CORRIDOR...AND SHOULD ONLY BE A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE SNOW BEGINS TO FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER. DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO CENTRAL WI BEHIND SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING AND END TO THE SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RUC AND 00Z ETA CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FAR NORTHERN LOWER BY MORNING WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS WELL...IMPLYING THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL...LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW UP AGAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST MN...SO MAY BE A BREAK BETWEEN INITIAL SNOWFALL AND ANY REDEVELOPMENT WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE/850MB LOW CENTERS. AS FOR GOING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...EXPECT BEST TOTALS ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SNOW SHOULD FALL THE LONGEST. WILL CONTINUE THE 2-3 INCH FORECASTS FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF M-72. WILL BACK OFF ACCUMULATIONS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WHERE SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO LOWERED ACCUMULATIONS OVER EASTERN UPPER TO 1-2 INCHES...SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS WELL AND CONCERNED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THAT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH VORTICITY TRACK MAY KEEP BETTER ACCUMULATIONS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN NUDGING UPWARD THIS EVENING...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. UPDATED ARBZFPAPX WILL BE OUT BY 0335Z. .APX...NONE. JPB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1025 PM EST WED FEB 2 2000 FCST CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WV/IR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW ACROSS EXTREME SW ONTARIO TRANSLATING SE. LEAD SHORTWAVE WITH SHOT OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT SNOW NOW ACROSS E FA AND QUICKLY MOVING E. UPSTREAM...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS W FA INTO NE MN. NEAR CIRCULATION CENTER IN SW ONTARIO...SFC OBS SHOW SN OCCURRING WITH VSBYS BTWN 3/4 AND 2SM. 00Z ETA/00Z RUC SHOW UPPER LOW MOVING INTO W FA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SN NEAR CIRCULATION CENTER TO DEVELOP INTO N AND W FA. CONCERN WILL BE WITH POTENTIAL OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE FAVORABLE AROUND -8C. MODELS SHOW SOME UVM ALONG WITH QVEC CONV AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS COMBINED WITH SHARP SFC TROF/LOW-LEVEL CONV ARGUES FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC SNOW AS IT CROSSES LK. 00Z ETA/00Z RUC INDICATE SFC TROF WILL BE MOVING S ACROSS W/CNTRL FA IN THE 09Z-15Z TIME FRAME. WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO BE MOST LIKELY DURING THAT TIME. CURRENT ZONES APPEAR ON TRACK WITH MENTION OF SNOW REDEVELOPING NW/NCNTRL OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING MAINLY IN THE MORNING. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ENHANCEMENT...1-3 INCHES SHOULD COVER. REPORTS OF -FZDZ CALLED IN FROM SPOTTERS IN CHASSELL/HOUGHTON. TEMPORARY DRYING ALOFT IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE PROVIDING FAVORABLE TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILE FOR -FZDZ. EXPECT THIS TO BE TEMPORARY AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH 5H LOW. INLAND FROM LK SUPERIOR...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES/PATCHY FZDZ UNTIL SFC TROF ARRIVES THU MORNING. WITH CLOUDS AND TEMP ADV MORE OR LESS NEUTRAL OVERNIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. .MQT...NONE. ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 723 AM EST WED FEB 02 2000 DID AN UPDATE TO THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND TO END FLURRIES AROUND GAYLORD... DUE TO THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND STLT DATA. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS 850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO BETWEEN -7C AND -8C WHICH HAS DECREASED THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AND HELPED TO END THE FLURRY ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST LOWER. CURRENTLY NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN IS IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LINGERING SCT-BKN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND THE QUICKLY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LATEST IR STLT SHOWS THE THINNER HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY IN NORTHWEST LOWER WITH THE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. TRACKING STLT DATA SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF WISCONSIN IN AROUND 2 TO 3 HOURS. THEREFORE WILL UPDATE NORTHWEST LOWER ZONES AND GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING AND DROP THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE GAYLORD AND BELLAIRE GROUP. .APX...NONE. SWR mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 820 PM CST WED FEB 2 2000 FORECAST CONCERN IS EXTENT OF CLEARING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPS. A FAIRLY LARGE CLEAR SLOT HAS OPENED UP OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MN BEHIND VORT MAX. DEVELOPING CYCLONIC FLOW IS PUSHING CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN MN WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD MORNING. WILL MENTION A PERIOD OF MO CLEAR FOR A TIME TONIGHT. UP STREAM..SEEMS LIKE MODELS MAY BE HAVING TROUBLE WITH VORT MAX OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AB. LOOKS LIKE IT IS AHEAD OF MODELS AND CONTINUING AN SE TRACK. LATEST RUC DOESN'T SEEM TO DO MUCH WITH IT. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT NEW ETA COMES UP WITH. TEMPS SEEM OK. WILL HOLD UP FOR A WHILE..BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE OVER BY MORNING. .MSP...NONE RICHARDSON mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 920 AM CST WED FEB 2 2000 LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF MINNESOTA WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTS TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE CWA. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL ON THE BREEZY SIDE. LATEST RUC AND LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT AS WEAK TROF NOW IN ERN NORTH DAKOTA APPROACHES CWA. SCT LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FEATURE. WILL BREAK OFF FAR NERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE CLOUDS MOVING IN. WILL CLEAR SKIES IN THE KPIR AREA AS DRY AIR CONTS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE BUMPED UP A TAD AS THEY HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH SINCE SUNSET...AND WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP ATMOS WELL MIXED. UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY. .ABR...NONE. HINTZ sd EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 236 AM EST THU FEB 3 2000 CURRENTLY...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS TREND OF JET AXIS SINKING GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTH NEAR 30N LATITUDE. SATELLITE SHOWS AREA OF MOISTURE STREAKING EAST ACROSS THE GULF IN RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET...WELL AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. JUST A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO FILTER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. TODAY...MAIN QUESTION IS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN THAT SHOULD STREAK ACROSS THE PENINSULA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ETA MEAN RH FIELDS LINE UP BEST WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED IN THE SOUTH AND PLAN TO GO WITH 40 PERCENT THERE ...AND 20 PERCENT UP TO METRO ORLANDO/BREVARD. EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ALL AREAS THEREFORE WILL UNDERCUT MOS A FEW DEGREES. FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE AREA LATE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE AREA AS MID/UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RESURGING NORTHERN BRANCH TURNS WEST NORTHWESTERLY. THEREFORE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH EAST OF THE STATE WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW WEST NORTHWEST WITH COLD ADVECTION LIKELY HOLDING OFF LONG ENOUGH FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH NEAR MOS. EXTENDED...COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL PRODUCE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND KEEP COLD ADVECTION GOING THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL NUDGE SOME SATURDAY TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY. FIRE WX...RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT WEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLOWER DRYING TREND THAN INITIALLY FORECAST WILL LIMIT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EROSION OF THE DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS TODAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON TRAJECTORY OF SURFACE FLOW AND SPEED OF DRYING...LOW RH DURATIONS APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO BE MET FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SINKING ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING GRADIENT THIS MORNING THEN WEST NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THINK THAT INCREASE TO CAUTION/ADVISORY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY BEHIND FRONT. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... DAB EU 066/041 069/038 100 MCO EU 067/048 071/042 2-0 MLB EU 068/050 072/043 2-0 .MLB...FIRE WEATHER WATCH LAKE AND VOLUSIA TODAY. FIRE WEATHER WATCH LAKE...VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...ORANGE... OSCEOLA AND BREVARD FRIDAY. KELLY/LASCODY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1000 PM EST WED FEB 2 2000 WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ADD CHC OF LGT SNOW AND SLEET IN NORTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE AND COMPOSITE 88D REFLECTIVITIES SHOWS INITAL BAND ACROSS SRN LAKE MI WITH ANOTHER AREA NOW OVER SRN WI. 12Z ETA SEEMED TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON AREA OF LGT PCPN AND WILL USE THIS TO EXTEND SRN EDGE TO NEAR IND AREA BY MRNG. 00Z RUC SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS TREND TOO. ETA BUFKIT SOUNDING FAVORS A PERIOD OF SLEET LATER TNGT IF PCPN REACHES INDIANA AND CHANGING TO FLURRIES AFTER 12Z AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BEGIN TO LOWER. OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST WILL BE TO GO WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TO RAISE WIND SPEEDS A CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. .IND...NONE. HENDRICKSON in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 843 PM EST THU DEC 30 1999 ZONES WILL NEED TO BE RECONFIGURED SW-NE FOR THE UPDATE AS AREA OF PRECIP COMING ACROSS LM IS LOOKING TO STAY NORTH OF A SBN-FWA- AOH LINE TNGT. ILX SOUNDING IS PRIMED FOR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WITH DRY LAYER ABOVE ZERO FROM 925-775MB AND SLEET REPORTED AT MKE. PROBLEM IS WHERE WILL THERE BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP TO ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND. LATEST RUC KEEPS 80-90 MRH ACROSS MI INTO NE IN AND NW OH. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS/SMALL ACCUMULATION THESE AREAS AND ADD SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX. A FEW FLURRIES OR A BIT OF SLEET SW OF THIS GRP THEN DRY TNGT SW. TMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE AS WAITING FOR WARM ADVECTION TO OVERCOME SNOWPACK. WILL TWEEK TMPS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. .IWX...NONE. RES in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 228 AM CST THU FEB 3 2000 ...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE MAIN CONCERN... SURFACE TROF AT 07Z EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR P28. BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE LAST FEW HOURS BUT PROFILERS SHOWING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER GATES SINCE 05Z. UPPER WAVE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISS VLY SHOULD HELP GIVE A LITTLE EXTRA PUSH TO THE TROF. BAND OF MIDDLE CLOUDS OVER NEBRASKA SINKING SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN KANSAS ON SATELLITE. 03Z RUC KEPT THE CLOUDS EAST INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. THINK THAT CWA WILL CATCH SOME OF THESE CLOUDS AS WELL AS CIRRUS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS TAKE A DIVE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH 00Z FRIDAY TEMPS FORECAST TO BE IN THE MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4 RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. WILL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER FWC NUMBERS FOR TODAYS HIGHS. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. THE WIND AND EXPECTED HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SO WILL GO WITH LOWS NEAR 20 TO THE LOWER 20S. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH OF WESTERN MONTANA. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE AND MOVE IT INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TIME SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AROUND 850 MB AND KEEP IT AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THUS WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. .TOP...NONE. JW ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 248 PM CST WED FEB 2 2000 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH 48 HOURS IS TEMPERATURES. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS SNOW PACK CONTINUING TO MELT AWAY, WITH DEEPEST SNOW APPEARING TO BE FROM JUST EAST OF JOHNSON TO SOUTH OF GCK TO JUST NORTHWEST OF DDC. 20Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED LEE TROUGH FROM NEAR HLC SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO AROUND EHA. THINK THE DAYTIME WARMING HAS ABOUT CEASED AS OF 230 PM CST, AND DO NOT THINK THERE WILL MUCH LATE-DAY WARMING. THERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NGM/AVN AND ETA, WITH ETA 5-10 DEGREES COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. ALL MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH LOW TEMP FORECASTS. WILL STAY NEAR FWC/FAN NUMBERS FOR LOW TEMPS, AND TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF WARMEST AVN FOR HIGHS, FAVORING THE ETA. THIS MORNING'S INITIALIZATION SHOWED ETA SLIGHTLY BETTER AT 500MB, BUT NO MODEL INITIALIZED WELL AT SFC, EVEN THE RUC. LOOKING AT 850MB, THE NGM PICKED UP ON THE WARMING TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT DID POORLY AT SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST SO SOON. COLD FRONT SHOULD BACK-DOOR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, MAINLY RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TONIGHT. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN LATE THURSDAY, WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO COLDER THAN TONIGHT. FRIDAY SHOWS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AT 7H AND 5H, SO WILL BRING MOCLOUDY SKIES TO WESTERN PARTS, AND PCLOUDY SKIES TO REST. THIS LEADS NICELY TO EFP MENTIONING SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION WITH A DEEPENING LOW/TROUGH NEAR 130-140W. VARIOUS QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES ARE DEPICTED BY THE MODELS TO BE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. ALSO AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST OF THE SHORTWAVES HAS A FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ARRIVAL TIME. THE MRF/AVN/ECMWF HAVE A TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NE/SD AREA. THE CANADIAN, LIKE YESTERDAY, TAKES IT OVER KANSAS. THE WINDS AROUND THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST ARE STILL PROGGED TO HELP ADVECT LOW LEVEL HIGH-RH VALUES INTO KANSAS AT THIS SAME TIME. THUS, WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA, THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY STILL IS THERE. WILL KEEP THE CHANCES ON THE /SLIGHT CHANCE SIDE/ GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE. WILL KEEP THE RAIN OR SNOW WORDING FOR THE SATURDAY PERIOD AND MENTION ONLY SNOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME NO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD BUT KEEPS THE AREA UNDER AN OPEN-GULF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND UPWARD ARE ON THE DRY SIDE...THUS IF THE UPSLOPE IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING UPON THE TIME OF DAY. BUT THIS FAR OUT...I WILL NOT INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST...BUT BUMP THE WEEKEND CLOUD AMOUNT UP TO CLOUDY. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE VISITOR IS FCST FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. AND THIS TIMING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MRF AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT ONE-HALF OF A WAVELENGTH BEHIND HAVING THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES RATHER THAN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN, THE MRF/ECMWF ARE CLOSE WITH THE POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT, THAT OF PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY, HOWEVER THE SFC LOW ALONG THIS FRONT IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT. SFC PLOTS FROM THE CANADIAN ARE NOT AVAILABLE AT 140 HRS FOR COMPARISON. AGAIN, ONLY THE LOW LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARE PROGGED, SO ANY PCPN THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AGAIN WITH A NIGHTTIME INTO DAYTIME PERIOD OF ARRIVAL, WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE MRF SELECTS TO BEGIN EJECTING THE PACIFIC 500 LOW EASTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY VIA THE MRF FCST SOUNDING WE COULD HAVE A RAINY DAY WITH PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS. BUT AT THIS TIME I WILL NOT GO TO THIS EXTREME AND SIMPLE LEAN TOWARDS ARE WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND NOT MENTION ANY PCPN CHANCES. FOR TEMPS, WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM THE CURRENT NUMBERS. WILL BEGIN TO WARM THINGS UP A TAD TUESDAY...AND BEGIN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY. PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST. DDC 024/048 019/043 023 000 GCK 022/049 017/042 021 00- EHA 025/053 022/044 021 00- LBL 024/049 019/044 024 00- HYS 022/049 017/040 023 000 P28 021/052 019/044 026 000 .DDC...NONE. BURKE/SLEIGHTER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 117 AM EST THU FEB 3 2000 CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST PERSISTENT SNOW ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW NOW AFFECTING NORTHEAST LOWER. IR STLT SHOWS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXITING THE SOUTHWEST LOWER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST RUC MODEL SOUNDING FOR A LOCATION NEAR TVC SHOWS DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LAYERS WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING SATURATED. THE SATURATED LOW LAYER DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE -10C WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THIS MOISTURE LAYER. THEREFORE WILL ADD MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO TVC...MBL AND CAD AREAS THIS MORNING. WILL REMOVE DEVELOPING WORDING IN NORTHEAST LOWER GROUP. .APX...NONE. SWR mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 240 AM MST THU FEB 3 2000 CDFNT HAS MOVED THRU MOST OF CWA EAST OF LAR RNG. BAND OF LOW/MID CLDS ACRS E CNTRL WY INTO NRN PNHNDL...WITH PTCHY REAL LOW CLDS/FOG PARTS OF SE WY. BAND OF CLDS/PCPN ACRS WY/MT BDR SHFTG SE...WITH SOME LGT SNW SHR/BYG/GCC AREAS. ETA DOING THE BEST WITH CURRNT OBS/TRENDS...AND SO HAVE FOLLOWED ITS PCPN FCST THE MOST THRU TNGT. MM5 MDL ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE PRETTY GOOD HNDL ON AMT/LOC OF PCPN. RUC AS USUAL PRETTY WORTHLESS WITH ITS PCPN FCST. UPSLP IN PLACE... WITH VORT MAX DRPG SEWD FM MT ACRS NERN WY BFR IT SHEARS APART INTO NRN NEB TNGT. STG UPR JET ALSO IN PLACE...WITH PCPN BAND IN RRQ OF DEPARTING SPD MAX. TOO MANY FACTORS COMING TOGETHER...SO WILL GO WITH 30-50 PCT POPS MOST OF E CNTRL/SE WY AREAS TDA...WITH 20-30 PCT POPS IN PARTS OF PNHNDL. SOME AREAS OF LGT SNW MAINLY THIS EVNG PARTS OF SE WY...BUT THEN UPR SUPPORT PULLS AWAY. RETURN SRLY FLOW LINGERS THRU FRI WITH BEST BET ON CLDS HANGING AROUND IN PARTS OF SE WY. HAVE NOT SEEN NEW MRF YET...WILL VIEW IT SHORTLY AND LOOK OVER EXTNDD PDS IN FCST. .CYS... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. JAD wy AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 935 AM EST THU FEB 03 2000 MRNG DATA SFC AND ALOFT INDICATE AN AREA OF MID DECK CLDINS MOVING E ACRS THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ATTM AS DEPICTED WELL IN SAT IMAGERY. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF A WEAK H5 IMPULSE MVG E WHICH 13Z RUC FCST TO BE E OF THE CWA BY 16Z. IAD SNDG INDICATES LAYERS SATRATED DOWN TO ARND THE H7 LVL THEN VERY DRY BELO THAT TO THE SFC. H8 TEMP AT -3C. DOPPLER RADAR ALSO INDICATES SOME RETURNS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF VIRGA WHILE A FEW FLAKES OR FLURRIES MAY BE REACHING THE GRND. WUD XPCT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS MRNG AS THE UPR FEATURE MOVES E OF THE AREA BY ELY AFTN. DATA INDICATE THE MORE INPORTANT LT SNOWS AS FCST ERLR FOR ELY TNGT IS STILL BACK OVER THE OH VLY AND VCNTY ASSOC WITH STRONGER UPR DYNAMICS AND THE CDFNT FCST TO MOVE ACRS THE REGION TNGT. MESO ETA WUD SUGGEST THAT CURRENT FCST WILL STAND FOR THAT PERIOD. OTW THAT'S IT FOR NOW...LATER. .LWX...NONE PAP md FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 1010 AM CST WED FEB 3 2000 88D AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW GOOD SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA...WITH UP TO AN INCH ALREADY IN NW MN WITH ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. 50H LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES STRONGER THAN PROGGED YESTERDAY. NEW 12Z ETA AND RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...AS COMPARED TO THE WATER VAPOR. ONE VORT MAX SHOWN NICELY OVER ROX MOVING SOUTHWEST. MODELS HAVE THIS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWFA THIS AFTN...WITH ANOTHER ONE FAST ON ITS HEELS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE VALLEY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOOKING UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND CURRENT 88D EXPECT SNOW TO LAST ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. FAR WRN CWFA HAD BEEN ON THE FENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING...BUT WITH SYSTEM ROTATING SOUTHWEST SNOW HAS ARRIVED IN DVL AND EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO ARRIVE IN THE REST OF SE ND THIS AFTN. 12Z ETA KEEPS LIGHT SNOW IN NRN AREAS THIS EVENING AND LASTS IT IN THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THUS WILL AMEND TONIGHTS FCST TO CONTINUE SNOW THIS EVENING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM OF AN INCH OR TWO AREA LIKELY NE ND AND NW MN WITH AN INCH OR LESS SE ND/WCNTRL MN. 85H TEMPS COOL TODAY TO THE -14C RANGE...SO DONT LOOK FOR ANY TEMP RECOVERY. WINDS ARE A PROBLEM OVER THE AREA....WITH MOST ERN ND SITES VERY CLOSE TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED. THIS IS CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH SNOW ON THE GROUND TO CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS. THUS NO ADVISORIES NEEDED ATTM. WILL SEND UPDATE OUT AROUND 1030 AM. .FGF...NONE. RIDDLE nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 940 AM EST THU FEB 3 2000 RUC MODEL SHOWS VORTICITY AREA FOCUSING PRECIPITATION BAND IN CENTRAL OHIO SLIDING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS PITTSBURGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD GIVE UP TO 2 INCHES IN OUR EAST CENTRAL OHIO ZONES. SINCE THE MAIN AREA IS INDICATED MOVING NORTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA WILL KEEP 1 INCH OR LESS IN NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. HAVE PUT OUT THE MORNING ZONES EARLY TO PICK UP THE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS. .RLX... WV...NONE. VA...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. .END/AAR wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING/ADVSY SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 155 PM EST THU FEB 3 2000 CURRENTLY: WV/IR SATELLITE ANIMATION AND RUC SHOWED MID/UPPER LOW POSITIONED JUST S OF BRO MOVING SLOWLY SEWD. E-W SHEAR AXIS ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF GULF COAST STATES EDGING SEWD AS WELL. PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION PER 15 MIN LGT DATA OVER CNTRL GULF MEX IN DIFFLEUNT REGION OF EWD MOVING RR QUAD OF 100+ JET MAX OVER N FL. THIS AREA HAS SHOWN DECREASING TREND AS IT MOVES TOWARD S FL W/ EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPY EXTENDING NEWD THRU MUCH OF FL PEN AND NRN EDGE SKIRTING OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. MAY YET SEE A FEW MID/HI CLOUDS BRUSH SRN PORTIONS OF FL CWFA REST OF THIS AFTN. EARLY AFTN TEMPS/DEWPTS IN LINE W/ FWC MOS AND SHOULD REACH FCSTD MAXIMA. LATEST TLH RH NOW 30 PERCENT AND INLAND FL ZONES SHOULD MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. SHORT RANGE/ZFP DISC: ONLY FEW SUBTLE DIFFERENCES NOTED DURING INITIAL 24 HRS...THEN MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THEREAFTER. S/WV TROF OVER WRN GULF MEX OPENS UP AND SHEARS OUT BY 00Z SAT. RATHER STRONG S/WV DROPS SEWD FROM GRT LKS INTO NERN U.S. CARVING OUT MEAN ERN CONUS TROF. OMEGA RIDGE BLOCK FROM SW CANADA WEAKENS AS TROF EDGES EWD TOWARD W COAST AND S/WV RIDGE ANCHORS OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/HIGH PLAINS. ETA RIDES STRUNG OUT VORT MAX A TAD FATHER NORTH THAN NGM/AVN THRU FRI. ALSO...NGM/AVN SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ETA W/ UPR TROF SWING ACROSS MID ATLC/SERN U.S. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT AND SOUNDINGS VERY SIMILAR AND KEEP MEAN RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT THRU 48 HRS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM LOW PRES IN LWR MI SWWD TO SRN OK DROPS SEWD INTO NRN AL/GA BY 06Z AND THRU THE CWFA BY 21Z. FOUS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT W/ FROPA FROM 12-18Z FRI...THEN DECREASE BRIEFLY BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT W/ GOOD CAA PATTERN BECOMING ESTABLISHED. LIMITED MOISTURE SO ONLY FEW MID/HI CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY FROPA FRI. AFTER MORNING TEMPS IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT...READINGS RECOVER NICELY FRI AFTN W/ HIGHS IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING AS ADVERTISED BY FAN FRI NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL HEDGE TOWARD FWC WHICH HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING FAN PAST FEW DAYS. AFTN MAXIMA SAT WILL ABOUT 8-12 DEGREES COOLER. HIGH PRES RIDGE SETTLES OVER CWFA SAT NIGHT AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S W/ HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND BIG BEND. LONG RANGE/EFP DISC: 00Z MRF ADVERTISING PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL-MILD TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CWFA AND MUCH OF SERN U.S. REMAINS LOCKED IN A STABLE W-NWLY FLOW ALOFT W/ SERIES OF S/WVS BRUSHING NERN U.S. AND SFC HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. ONE PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES SE ACROSS TN INTO CAROLINAS TUE W/ ANOTHER DRY FROPA. MOSTLY CLEAR AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS TO CLIMO ON TAP. FIRE WEATHER: RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET AGAIN FRI AFTN FOR ALL OF FL BIG BEND/ERN PNHDL ZONES EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST W/ AT LEAST 4 HRS OF MIN RH VALUES IN THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE. HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS AFT FROPA WILL PROVIDE GOOD DISPERSION. MARINE: N-NW WINDS BACK TO WLY TONIGHT...THEN VEER TO NW FRI AND CONT FRI NIGHT. SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 5-10 KT TONIGHT TO 10-15 KT FRI...AND 15-20 KT NEAR SHORE/20-25 KT OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND FROPA. WILL INCLUDE 'SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY NIGHT' FOR OFFSHORE LEGS. PRELIM CCF... TLH 031/066 030/054 0000 PFN 042/063 036/052 0000 DHN 038/060 031/050 0000 ABY 035/062 031/051 0000 VLD 033/065 032/053 0000 .TLH... AL...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING RMNDR THIS AFTN THRU SUNSET INLAND FL ZONES. RED FLAG WARNING FRI AFTN ALL FL ZONES. GA...NONE. MAJ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 400 PM EST WED FEB 2 2000 .SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION... CURRENT REGIONAL SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1003 MB LOW JUST E OF LUDINGTON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN OVER AND WEST OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A RATHER CONVOLUTED UPPER LOW WITH NOT ONE BUT A SERIES OF VORT MAXES...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE CURRENTLY WORKING S THROUGH MN. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE LIGHT SNOW COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE. THEN...DELIMA BECOMES TIMING AND EXTENT OF CLEARING...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES/COVERAGE A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. PER 12Z 300 MB RAOBS...THE ETA INITIALIZATION FARED BETTER THAN NGM WITH THE 130 KT JET MAXIMA CLOSER TO OMAHA NB...WHILE AT THE SFC THE ETA HAS MATCHED UP CLOSER TO REALITY AT 12Z AND 18Z IN TERMS OF THE LOCATION/INTENSITY OF THE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MI. VORT CENTER OVER MN CLEARLY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR AND ESP VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS NOT INITIALIZED AS WELL ON THE 12Z ETA/NGM AS COMPARED TO THE RUC. DESPITE THE INITIALIZATION DIFFS... THE 12Z RUNS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FEATURES THAT WILL AFFECT THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SLOWING DOWN THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRI...THUS THE CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IS MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S THINKING. .SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OVER SRN PORTION OF NRN LWR TONIGHT...WHERE THE WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. GIVEN THE WEAK DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AND (THUS) MID LEVEL MOISTURE/ICE NUCLEI AVAILABILITY...DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. OVER THE REST OF NRN LWR...EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO END BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CLEARING MENTION UNTIL FRI. OVER THIS REGION...WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS ICE SEEDING DIMINISH THIS EVENING. IN ERN UPR...CLEARING IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE OVER ONTARIO JUST EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE. HAVE WORDED FLURRIES EARLY FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THIS REGION AS Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY...DESPITE THE MORE DEFINITIVE UPPER RIDGING/CONVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...OPTED FOR PARTLY SUNNY VERSES MOSTLY SUNNY FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST...AT LEAST FOR THE NRN ZONES...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALSO...AS WINDS BACK FROM N TO NW... THINK THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SCATTERED...SHALLOW LAKE CLOUDS OFF SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN AS 900-850 MB TEMPS AVERAGE AROUND -12C. AT ANY RATE...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS EARLY ON OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NRN LWR UNTIL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. FRIDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT...THUS DID NOT SWAY FAR FROM FWC/FAN GUIDANCE. MODELS INDICATE RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVELS OVER THE REGION (700-500 MB RH/S BELOW 70 PCT)...DESPITE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT LOBE RACING TOWARD THE REGION. OPTED FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN ERN UPR MI WITH A LOW CHANCE OF WHAT WOULD BE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE KEEPING NRN LWR DRY (PARTLY CLOUDY). SATURDAY...AGAIN STICKING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE MODELS ARE UNDER- ESTIMATING THE MOISTURE DEPTH WITH THE NEXT VORT LOBE...ALONG WITH THE LAKE-AGGREGATE TROUGHING AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN OVER THE LAKES...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE SNOW CHANCES IN ALL ZONES. WORDED THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NW FLOW LK SUPERIOR AND LK MICHIGAN SNOWBELTS. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -15C/-16C WOULD RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH THESE TEMPS WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER...DENDRITIC GROWTH AND (THUS) SNOWFLAKE SIZE WOULD BE OPTIMIZED. THIS COULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY...WHEN DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A DOMINANT NNW-SSE LK SUPERIOR/ LK MI BAND BROUGHT 1"/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES TO A PORTION OF NW LOWER. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION... LAST 2 MRF RUNS CONTINUE TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN RUNS...SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOLLOWING THE POOR RUN ON TUESDAY. MRF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD ACCORD...AS IS THE ECMWF EXCEPT FOR THE RESIDUAL UPPER/SFC TROUGHING ON TUE (2/8) THAT IS NOT DEPICTED ON THE MRF AND CANADIAN. MUCH THE SAME STORY AS WAS NOTED WITH YESTERDAY'S RUNS...WITH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES/ CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS ROTATING ON THE BACK SIDE EVERY OTHER DAY. HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE RUNS TODAY IS A MORE AMPLIFIED ERN U.S. TROUGH BY NEXT THU AND FRI...ALLOWING FOR AN INTRUSION OF MORE ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH VERSES MARITIME FROM THE WEST. THE EXTENDED RUNS HAVE CERTAINLY TRENDED TOWARD A COLDER SCENARIO... NULLIFYING ANY POSSIBILITIES OF WHAT EARLIER LOOKED TO BE A WARMUP FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. .APX...NONE. HURLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 717 AM EST THU FEB 3 2000 IR STLT AND RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STRAITS AREA AND EAST UPPER MICHIGAN ARE SHOWING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES MID LEVEL DRYING OVER EAST UPPER AND EXTREME NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING HOWEVER THE SOUNDING IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE... AS UPPER LEVELS RETAIN SOME MOISTURE DUE TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING 500 MB VORT. THIS WILL HELP IN ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL UPDATE EAST UPPER AND STRAITS AREA THIS MORNING FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES... WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON STILL BEING OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. .APX...NONE. SWR mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 215 PM CST THU FEB 3 2000 FCST CONCERNS ARE APRCHNG SHRTWV AND MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON LARGE SCALE TROF...THE DETAILS ARE SOMETHING ELSE. ETA DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WELL DEVELOPED VORT SEEN ON SATL APRCHG CNTRL MN. ETA WASHES IT OUT QUICKLY. NEW RUC SHOWS THIS FEATURE THE BEST...BUT ONLY GOES THRU 9 HOURS ATTM. WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUING TNGT AND INTO FRI MRNG...WILL KEEP PRECIP INTO THE FRI PERIOD FOR THE MORNING. NEXT FORECAST PRBLM IS DVLPNG NE WINDS LATE TONIGHT FROM 850 TO 500 MV LAYER. LAKE TMPS ARE MARGINAL...BUT LAKE EFFECT FLOW CHART BRANCES US OFF INTO THE LAKE ENHANCED BRANCH WITH A 1 TO 2 INCH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATION. ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY UNSTABLE BELOW 5 THSD FT LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS ABOVE 900 MB ALL BECOME NE. Q.G. CONVERGENCE IS CONFINED TO THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER WITH WEAK TO MODERATE CONVERGENCE. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED WL GO WITH UNQUALIFIED WORDING FOR LGT SNOW TNGT. WL LEAN TWRDS UP TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY WITH WELL DEVELOPED VORT. WL ALSO HAVE TO BUMP UP AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE LAKE SHORE ZONES. NEXT WEAKER SHORTWV IN N STREAM TEAMS WITH WAA TO BRING AT LEAST A MID LEVEL DECK INTO SE WI FRIDAY NIGHT SAT MRNG. ATTM LOW LEVEL SOUNDINGS NOT MOIST ENOUGH FOR ZL- THREAT...AND ALTHOUGH MID LEVELS MOISTEN...RH MARGINAL FOR LGT SNOW. .UWNMS...KEEPS 700 MB RH IN LONGER OVR SE WI FRI MRNG. QPF TAKES A WHILE TO SPIN UP IN THE EARLY PERIODS. .MKX...NONE. 0...0.../...0. $$ HENTZ wi