AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 244 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2000 ...SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A GUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. FOG PRODUCT AND IR SHOW THE FIELD OF LOW ST/SC CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLEARING PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN/EASTERN MINNESOTA. THE CLEARING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION BEHIND THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE AND THE NOSE OF A UPPER JET STREAK. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE RIDGE RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. MOISTURE ANALYSIS HAS DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. 12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED OK BUT THE AVN WAS VERIFYING MUCH BETTER AT 18Z WITH THE ETA JUST A TAD EAST. THE NGM WAS TOO FAST AND HAS BEEN THROWN OUT. AVN ALSO HAS SOME BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY SO WILL FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE AVN FOR THIS PACKAGE. ETA STARTS OUT OK BUT THEN ACCELERATES THE MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS LATER IN ITS FORECAST CYCLE. AVN BUILDS THE RIDGE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT. CURRENT CLOUDS ARE NOT BEING HANDLED THE BEST BY THE AVN/ETA/RUC BUT 925 MB RH ISN/T BAD. SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST CLEARING TO OCCUR THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP. HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONCE WINDS TURN WEST TONIGHT CLOUDS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY MAY ADVECT BACK INTO THE AREA. SOUNDING PROFILES KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER QUITE MOIST SO BELIEVE SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE/REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER CLEARING TAKES PLACE. WEDNESDAY BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST IN SPITE OF DOWNWARD MOTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE GRADUAL MELTING OF THE SNOW FIELD. SOUNDING PROFILES ALSO SHOW MOST OF THE WARMING TO BE OFF THE SURFACE SO ALTHOUGH THE IDEA OF WARMER TEMPERATURES IS CORRECT THE MAGNITUDE IS INCORRECT AND WILL LOWER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. NEXT SYSTEM TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LAKE SUPERIOR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER SOMEWHAT WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY BUSHING THE AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME FLURRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS NORTH THAN SOUTH. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY LOOK WAY TOO WARM AND WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. ADDITIONALLY THE TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN STRONGER...FARTHER WEST...AND A LITTLE FASTER. AVN SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL WITH TEMPERATURES CRASHING LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY. ...EXTENDED... EXTENDED GETS QUITE INTERESTING WITH GLOBAL MODELS FLIP-FLOPPING CONSIDERABLY ON THE INCOMING COASTAL SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST OF A DRY FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD GIVEN ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA. AVN EXTENDED DEVELOPS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WAA PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN THE BIG CHANGES OF THE MODELS PREFER TO DELAY THE CURRENT SNOW FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY. COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...ILX...AND STL. .DVN...NONE. NC il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 900 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2000 SATL AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW LOW CLOUD ACROSS SOUTH OKLAHOMA SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS REMAINING SECTIONS OF FOUR STATE REGION. LOWER CLOUDS AND RAIN LITTLE TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST (APPROACHING SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS) OUT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS RAIN CHANCES OVER THE LOWER SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS ALONG AND NEAR WHERE THE BEST AREA WILL BE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WILL NOT HAVE TO ADJUST RAIN IN CURRENT ZONES. RUC MODEL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EARLIER NGM AND ETA HINTED AT MOISTURE DRYING OUT AT THIS LEVEL ACROSS AR AND EXTREME NE TX AND N LA SO WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVLOP AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG. WILL NOT UPDATE FOR CLOUDS SINCE ZONES HAVE THIS COVERED. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE IN LITTLE NEED OF CHANGING EITHER. DEW POINTS RUNNING AROUND 30 DEGREES IN SE OK AND SW AR TONIGHT. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERING OVERNIGHT DUE LINGERING ICE THAT REGION. WITH ALL THIS SAID WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECASTS. 06 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1005 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2000 CLOUDS/TEMPS ARE THE FCST CONCERNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W ONTARIO TO W LK SUPERIOR AND S THRU IA. LES CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NCNTRL FA...BUT IS LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES NOW. PREVIOUS SHIFT FCSTR HAD EXCELLENT HANDLE ON FIGURING CLEARING WOULD BE VERY SLOW TO PROGRESS INTO NCNTRL FA AS N FLOW WOULD PERSIST UNTIL LATE. ACTUALLY...FLOW HAS BECOME MORE N THIS EVENING...AND AS A RESULT...CLDS/RADAR ECHOES ARE DRIFTING SW ACROSS DELTA COUNTY TO NEAR KESC. ALOFT...00Z RAOBS SHOW 100+M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB SPREADING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FLATTENING RIDGE THERE. CI SHIELD IS QUICKLY SPREADING E ACROSS N PLAINS AS FAST FLOW PROGRESSES E. UPPER TROF OVER E CANADA/NE U.S. CONTINUES TO HOLD ON WITH HEIGHT FALLS STILL OCCURRING THERE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...AND QUICK CHECK OF INCOMING 00Z ETA REVEALS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THIS DIRECTION. 00Z RUC/18Z ETA INDICATE THAT FLOW OVER E LK SUPERIOR WILL NOT BACK TO THE SW UNTIL 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT OBS ACROSS UPPER LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH FLURRIES E UNTIL LATE. MEANWHILE...EXPANSIVE CI SHIELD TO THE W WILL SPREAD INTO FA OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FCST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. TEMPS FCST APPEARS ON TRACK. LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH SFC RIDGE CROSSING FA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL SUBZERO IN PARTS OF INTERIOR W/CNTRL. WILL UP TEMPS 5 DEGREES OR SO OVER E COUNTIES AS CLOUDS WILL HANG ON MUCH OF NIGHT. .MQT...NONE. ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 825 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2000 SURFACE ANALYSES BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z SHOW HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE STATE. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW HAS NOTICEABLY DIMINISHED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN...AND THE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO RELAX OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND MINUS 10 DEG C IN VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. IR IMAGES...ALONG WITH RADAR TRENDS FROM KDTX AND KAPX...SHOW THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS STARTING TO WANE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE 21Z RUC AND 12Z ETA6 SHOWED 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOUT MINUS 6 OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE...ALONG WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL DRYING AS DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE FIGURES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES HEAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WILL PROVIDE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERALL IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY 06Z OR SO. A COUPLE OF THINGS TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND A SNOW BAND OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON SINKING SOUTH. AS FOR THE FORMER...MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE LATE AFTERNOON RUC AND THE 18Z MESOETA SUGGEST SOME SMALL INVERSION REMAINING OVER FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO 12Z. BOTH THE RUC AND THE MESOETA SUGGEST SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WHICH COULD HELP BATCHES OF CLOUDS...WITH MAYBE A FLURRY OR TWO...SKIRT ALONG I-94 AND M-50 OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...PLAN TO FORECAST VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR WASHTENAW...LENAWEE...AND MONROE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE OCCASIONAL CLEAR PATCH FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A FLURRY OR TWO. NOW THINKING OF THE LATTER...LFQ OF 100KT 300MB JET MOVING OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE...THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WELL IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C...HELPING TO ENHANCE SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. A LITTLE TROUBLESOME TO NOTE THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE HEADING SOUTH...BUT THIS MOVEMENT IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 18Z MESOETA PROG OF A SLIGHT VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER LAKE HURON THIS EVENING BEFORE BACKING MORE WNW AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE OF HURON COUNTY UNTIL ABOUT 06Z. EVEN THOUGH BAX HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR QUITE A WHILE...WINDS STAYING UP HAVE NOT ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURE THERE TO GO INTO THE TANK. ONGOING TEMP FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD MOST SPOTS. TAKING A QUICK GLIMPSE INTO THE FUTURE...PREVIOUS AFD HIGHLIGHTED TREND OF THE NEXT LOW FOR THURSDAY TO BE FARTHER SOUTH...AND THE 18Z MESOETA IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE 12Z ETA AT 00Z THURSDAY WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER EAST-CENTRAL MANITOBA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THE LOW CLOSELY...AND WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE WHAT LATER RUNS OF THE ETA/NGM/AVN HAVE TO SHOW. LATEST AVAILABLE RUN OF THE CANADIAN GEM ACTUALLY BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z THURSDAY. IF THAT VERIFIES...SOME ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. STAY TUNED. .DTX...NONE. DJF mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1113 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2000 ...UPDATE CONCERNS ARE DIMINISHING LES...TEMPS AND CLOUDS. 15Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM NW ONTARIO-N MN-S CNTRL NB. 88D REFLECTIVITIES LOOP DEPICTING MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS E OF MQT W/ ISOLD MAX 28DBZ PERSISTING. TO THE WEST OF MQT REFLECTIVITIES DECREASING AS MIXED LAYER PROFILE BACKS NW AS SFC RIDGE AXIS PRESSES INTO E MN. LL TRAJECTORIES WILL PERIST OUT OF W AND CNTRL ONTARIO THIS AFT W/ 12Z RUC/06Z MESOETA DEPICTED INVERSION HGTS CONTINUING TO LOWER BLO 2KFT OVR W SUPERIOR. VIS IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING DECREASING CLDS OVER SW ZONES..AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO INTO S CNTRL ZONES W/ DEVELOPING WAA AS H85 THERMAL TROF SLIPS SE RESULTING IN 2-3C H85 WARMING. OVR E SUPERIOR DELTA/T'S BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 18Z FROM CURRENTLY 18C TO 16C BY 00Z SUPPORTING EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING TREND. HAVE UPDATED TO REFLECT CLD TREND IN SW AND SC ZONES...AND WENT W/ NEARLY STEADY TEMPS MOST AREAS PER FLP GUIDANCE. ALSO ADJUST WINDS DOWN BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND DIMINISHING TREND..ESPECIALLY SW. .MQT...NONE. WOLF mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 923 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2000 BRISK NW FLOW CONTINUES AS LATEST S/W TO ROUND QUEBEC UPPER LOW HAS WORKED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MUCH LIKE LAST NGHT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUD AND FLURRY ACTIVITY IN THE WRN MTNS. UNLIKE LAST NGHT WINDS ARE STILL UP WITH REPORT FROM FLAT TOP MTN IN THE LAST HALF HR OF WINDS STILL 30 TO 40 KTS. RUC AND 18Z MESO ETA INDICATE THAT CAA AND FLURRIES WILL TAPER OFF...BUT NOT UNTIL ABOUT 9Z AS ANOTHER LITTLE SHOT OF ENERGY IS ABOUT TO WORK ACROSS THE MTNS. NAKAYA CLOUD TOP CURVE SHOWS -14 DEG C TOPS CONFINED TO THE NRN MTNS COUNTIES...THOUGH WITH THE NEXT SHOT COMING THROUGH...WL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THIS AREA ALL NGHT AND MENTION WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 BELOW. MOISTURE DRIES UP PRETTY QUICK IN CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS AND WILL MENTION NOTHING HERE. TEMPS LOOK GOOD BASED ON DWPTS AND EXPECTED GRADUAL DECOUPLING IN NON MTN LOCATIONS. .GSP...NONE. MCAVOY sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 923 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2000 LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OVER SW MN COUNTIES...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY BEHIND EXITING SURFACE RIDGE...DO NOT THINK THEY WILL REGRESS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH ADVANCING CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF TROF OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES...THINK MOST AREAS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER IN MOST ZONES TO EITHER CLOUDY OR INCRG CLOUDS AS THICKENING CIRRUS WORKS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WITH INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL WAA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT (BOTH 00Z ETA AND RUC SHOWING AROUND 6 DEG C OF WARMING AT 850MB THRU 12Z)... THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN REMAIN PRETTY STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES...AND HAVE WORDED ZONES ACCORDINGLY. MOST LIKELY AREA TO HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SCENARIO WILL BE SOUTHEAST CWA...WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LAST LONGER. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH NEXT HOUR OR SO TO SEE IF FURTHER CHANGES WILL BE NECESSARY. .FSD...NONE HAMEN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1035 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2000 LATEST SATELLITE AND RUC GIVE NO REASON TO EXPECT A QUICK BREAK OUT FROM THE LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY. WILL UPDATE TO BE MORE PESSIMISTIC ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. .ABR...NONE. KEEFE sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 845 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2000 DECENT AMT OF CLDS CONTG ACRS FA THIS EVNG WITH FLURRIES STILL LINGERING ACRS THE NE. THIS APPERS TO BE A COMBO OF RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT AND INFLUENCE OF VORT DRPG DOWN ACRS WRN LK ERIE PER 18Z MESOETA. WITH VORT ROTATING E OF FA THRU MIDNIGHT AND LLVL WAA TO OUR NW HELPING TO CUT OFF LK EFFECT...SHUD SEE FLURRY ACTVTY CONT TO DIMINISH THRU MDNGT. HOWEVER...DESPITE RUC AND MSOETA TRYING TO QUICKLY DRY OUT LLVLS...AM WORRIED THAT CLDS MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE BASED ON CRNT TRENDS. THUS...PLAN ON GOING WITH CLRG W AND DCRSG CLDS E BUT WL WAIT TIL ZONE ISSUNCE TO DECEIDE ON FINAL WORDING. WL NOT MESS WITH TMPS TOO MUCH AS ANY CLRG SHUD ALLOW FOR TMPS TO DROP OFF PRETTY GOOD. .ILN...NONE. LOTT oh SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 339 AM CST WED FEB 2 2000 HUMM...INTERESTING FORECAST. MODELS NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH GENERATING PRECIPITATION IN THE CORRECT PLACES ATTM. TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA. ONE APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE UPPER WIND MAX (PER RUC) GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER AUSTIN/COLORADO COUNTIES. THE SECOND MOVING NORTHEAST UP THE COAST APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 5 AND 8KFT. THIS SECOND BAND APPEARS TO BE DEEPER WITH THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS. THE ETA ENDS THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE 12Z ACROSS ALL BUT THE SW ZONES...OTHER MODELS AGREE BUT GIVEN WHAT IS APPARENT ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND RUC GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS FOR TODAY. RUC ALSO INDICATING A STREAK OF STRONG DIVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AROUND NOON...DUE TO LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE A STREAK OF CLOUDS. POPS SHOULD WANE QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE AND LACK OF MOISTURE OVER FA. PERHAPS SOME FOG BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION ATTM. FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND QUICKLY SHIFTING INTO THE GULF. SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SW. CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A WARMUP OF MAX TEMPS FROM OUR COOL SPELL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. RETURN FLOW SHOULD BEGIN SATURDAY WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AXIS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PATTERN STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE FOR A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK...YAHOO WE NEED IT. 45/36/TOM .KHGX...SCA OFFSHORE. PRELIMS... NE CB 052/037 063/040 068 3-0 CLL RB 051/040 064/042 070 3-0 IAH RB 055/040 065/042 070 520 GLS RB 058/051 060/053 064 63- tx TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 924 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2000 03Z LAPS SFC ANLYS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS BISECTING FA FM SW-NE. WINDS HAVE TURNED SRLY N OF THIS FEATURE WITH RICHER DPS FURTHER S ACROSS S PLAINS WHERE KLBB REPORTING F. SATL IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS DECK WHICH HAS BEEN ADVANCING ACROSS CENTRAL OK SINCE DAYLIGHT HOURS INTO SRN PART OF STATE. WRN EDGE MAKING LESS PROGRESS THAN SWRD MOVEMENT. ALSO SOME F ACROSS SW KS THOUGH SUSPECT THIS LARGELY INFLUENCED BY LCL SNOW PACK. 18Z MESOETA SUGGESTED SOME F THREAT ACROSS ERN ZNS WITH 00Z RUC INDICATING SOME MOISTURE FM S BEING RETURNED N INTO SRN PORTIONS FA. MAIN FACTOR AGAINST EITHER OF THESE IS PROJECTED VEERING OF WIND AND WRLY COMPONENT PROGGED BY ALL MODELS BY 12Z WED. AS FOR ISENTROPIC SFCS...MODELS AGREE ON OVERALL DOWNGLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS FA WITH NEAR SATURATED 285K SFC JUST S OF FA. WITH ALL THIS...MAY NEED TO ADD SOME F TO ERN ZNS EARLY BUT WILL LEAVE SRN ZNS AS IS FOR NOW. IF SWRLY WINDS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE THEN MAY NEED A LATE UPDATE FOR F MAINLY IN SE. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. COBB tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 908 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2000 THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT HAD BEEN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE CANCELLED. SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW WEAKENING NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. DEFORMATION ZONE THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY NOW INDICATING WARMING CLOUD TOPS...WITH RADAR LOOPS SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP IN THAT AREA AS WELL. CALLS INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA NOT INDICATING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. FINALLY ...THE 00Z RUC STILL INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 3 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 12Z. WITHOUT HEAVY PRECIP TO COOL THE COLUMN OF AIR...THIS WARM LAYER SHOULD HOLD. THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER APPEARS TO BE AT AN END AND WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY. MAY STILL SEE A LITTLE SNOW OR SLEET MIX IN AT TIMES ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. BEST LIFT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF MY COUNTIES AND HAS TAKEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL INTO SECTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. STILL...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION MAF. 07 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 327 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2000 DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST TWO RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWER... WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE LOW LEVELS TO WARM UP MORE THAN EXPECTED. LATEST VISIBLE/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF ELP AND WAS MOVING SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 06Z RUC... IT IS SIMILAR TO ETA WHICH SHOWS THE LOW MAKING A TURN TO THE SE BY 06Z... THEN EAST OVER SJT BY 00Z THU. IN CONTRAST... THE NGM AND AVN TAKE A MORE SRN ROUTE WHICH TAKES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH GIVING ONLY OUR SRN ZONES HIGH POPS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP... IT SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED ON AND OFF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND. BELIEVE THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT WHICH IS DRIFTING SOUTH. A SECOND AREA OF PRECIP IS ALONG THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS SW INTO SE NW. WITH THE BRIGHT BANDING EVIDENT ON RADAR... IT APPEARS THAT THIS IS THE RAIN/SLEET/SNOW LINE. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RUC MODEL... WILL GO WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ETA SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID... AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES US FROM THE SW... EXPECT THE PRECIP ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES TO BE PULLED WEST ACROSS THE WRN CONCHO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE RUC SHOWS THE 850 MB 0C LINE DRIFTING JUST SOUTH OF SJT BY 06Z TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST 1K TO 2K FEET ABOVE FREEZING... BUT ABOVE 900 MB IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF CAA FROM THE NORTH AND DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIP FROM RAIN TO A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET ALONG AND NORTH OF A MERTZON TO SJT TO BROWNWOOD LINE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT... WILL UPGRADE THE PREVIOUS WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. EXPECT THE BIG COUNTRY TO SEE UP TO 2 INCHES WITH THE CONCHO VALLEY POSSIBLY PICKING UP AN INCH OF SLEET AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY... THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. PLAN TO KEEP A CHANCE OF EARLY PRECIP ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOUTH OF I20. NORTH OF I20... EXPECT THE DRY AIR TO MOVE IN AND ALLOW FOR PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. IN THE EXTENDED... THE MRF IS STILL SHOWING A WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND HOLDING OFF THE COLD FRONT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS... EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... ABI 030/043/034/062 6-00 SJT 033/042/032/063 9200 JCT 036/040/032/061 9400 .SJT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR TXZ049-054-TXZ064>066-071>073-113-114-127-128-139-140. TEW tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX 326 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2000 POTENT SRN BRANCH UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SRN NM AND IS DIGGING S AND IS TO MOVE ACROSS MTNS IN CWFA. WILL GO WITH WARNING/ADVISORY THERE AS SNOW BEING REPORTED IN THE GDP/S AND DAVIS MTNS. WATER VAPOR INDICATES DRY SLOT WORKING IT/S WAY INTO FAR W TX AND THEN ACROSS REMAINDER OF W TX TONIGHT. IN FACT STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS AREAS W OF THE PECOS AND MAY SEE SOME SHRA/TSRA THERE PER VISIBLE IMAGERY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO W TX/SE NM AS NE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP. STILL TOO WARM FOR SNOW ATTM...EXCEPT FAR W-NW CWFA WHERE THEY ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW. CONCERN FOR FCST IS WHETHER OR NOT TEMPS WILL COOL LOW ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP. MODEL TEMPS ARE BORDERLINE WITH ETA THE COOLEST. MSTR DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR AS LOW LEVEL MSTR IS MOVING W WITH 85H LOW S OF KMAF. ATTM INCLINED TO DROP WATCH FOR THE E AND MENTION RAIN LIKELY WITH A MIXTURE RA/SN. BUT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR CSI (PER RUC) TO BE RELEASED ONCE MAIN FORCING ARRIVES TONIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT COOLING OF THE COLUMN FOR SNOW. AFTER COORD WITH SJT WILL LIKELY GO WITH A WATCH FOR LATER PORTION OF 1ST PERIOD AND DEFER CANCELLATION/UPGRADE TO ONCOMING EVENING SHIFT. MSTR SHIFTS S INTO FAR SRN CWFA AREA TMW MORNING AND WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS THERE (MAINLY RAIN) WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING POPS N. WARMING TREND BEGINNING THURSDAY THRU THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE REESTABLISHES WITH MORE SPLIT FLOW SETTING UP OF THE W COAST. COORD WITH SJT/ELP. PRELIMS MAF 29/49/27/63 5200 LSA 26/50/25/64 4200 E41 30/50/26/63 74-0 6R6 39/49/30/57 5630 MRF 30/50/27/62 53-- CNM 30/49/26/67 5200 .MAF... TX...HEAVY SNOW WARNING GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SNOW ADVISORY FOR DAVIS MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. WINTER STORM WATCH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SCURRY...BORDEN... MITCHELL...HOWARD...GLASSCOCK AND REAGAN COUNTIES. NM...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. GPM tx SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1026 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2000 AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK IS SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SE NM BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING. 12Z ETA/RUC RUNS INDICATE THE LOW TO BE DEEPER AND DISPLACED SOUTHWEST OF THE 00Z RUNS AND WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER JET STREAK OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS THE LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE POLAR JET WITH ONLY THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL FLOW TO STEER IT ALONG. AS THE BASE OF THE LOW BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 100 MI EAST OF PADRE ISLAND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH WITH STRATIFORM RAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WORDING STILL APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS WELL SO WILL LEAVE LATER PERIODS INTACT. IN THE SHORT TERM MAY REARRANGE ZONES SLIGHTLY TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT PATTERN OF SHOWERS. SUN HAS BROKEN THROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST COUNITES SO WILL LIFT MAX TEMPS THERE. ANY OTHER CHANGES WILL BE COSMETIC. .EWX...NONE. 18/02 tx SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL LOUISIANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 933 AM CST WED FEB 2 2000 LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODELS /MESO-ETA AND RUC/ ARE CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING MODERATE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAINLY SOUTH PART OF AREA INITIALLY THEN MOVING SOUTH. DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY. RUC / MESO-ETA PRODUCE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA IN GULF SO CHANCES OF RAIN OVER LAND ARE VERY SMALL TODAY. TEMPERATURES...AROUND 40 TO 45 NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH AT 9 AM WILL PROBABLY RISE TO PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOW TO MID 60S FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGHS. AN UPDATED FORECAST IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. .LCH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 60 NM. LA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ450-455-470-475 TX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ450-470 20 / SPARKS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................................. .FIRST PERIOD... ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE NOSING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PREVIOUS EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (BASE OF INVERSION NEAR 850 HPA). THE "ETA" FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING SUBSIDENCE TODAY...DEDUCED THROUGH ETA'S LOWERING OF THE INVERSION BASE WITH TIME. WITH THIS IN MIND...I WILL ADJUST THE "MOS" AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR SUBSIDING AIR (ADIABATIC WARMING) UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. .SECOND PERIOD... THE "ETA" FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN OPEN ATMOSPHERIC WINDOW. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE NEAR DAWN. DESPITE THE LOCALIZED COOLING OF THE NEAR-SURFACE AIR...FOG IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO THE PREPONDERANCE OF CONTINENTAL CCN (CLOUD CONDENSATION NUCLEI). I WILL ADHERE MORE CLOSELY TO THE PERFECT PROG (FAN) GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. .THIRD PERIOD... THE "ETA" FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE (TEMPERATURE TENDENCY IS ABOUT 10 DEG FAHRENHEIT PER 24 HOURS). THE CLEAR SKIES WILL MAXIMIZE INSOLATION...FORCING AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL. I WILL ONCE AGAIN ADJUST THE "MOS" AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY UPWARD. .COASTAL WATERS... COLD-AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER UNSTABLE ALLOWING FOR THE TURBULENT EXCHANGE OF MOMENTUM. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE "SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY" WILL REMAIN IN-FORCE. 21-TRARES PREVIOUS NUMBERS... LCH 63/38/68/43 1000 LFT 63/38/67/43 1000 AEX 60/33/65/40 0000 BPT 63/39/69/43 1000 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 248 PM CST WED FEB 2 2000 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH 48 HOURS IS TEMPERATURES. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS SNOW PACK CONTINUING TO MELT AWAY, WITH DEEPEST SNOW APPEARING TO BE FROM JUST EAST OF JOHNSON TO SOUTH OF GCK TO JUST NORTHWEST OF DDC. 20Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED LEE TROUGH FROM NEAR HLC SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO AROUND EHA. THINK THE DAYTIME WARMING HAS ABOUT CEASED AS OF 230 PM CST, AND DO NOT THINK THERE WILL MUCH LATE-DAY WARMING. THERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NGM/AVN AND ETA, WITH ETA 5-10 DEGREES COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. ALL MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH LOW TEMP FORECASTS. WILL STAY NEAR FWC/FAN NUMBERS FOR LOW TEMPS, AND TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF WARMEST AVN FOR HIGHS, FAVORING THE ETA. THIS MORNING'S INITIALIZATION SHOWED ETA SLIGHTLY BETTER AT 500MB, BUT NO MODEL INITIALIZED WELL AT SFC, EVEN THE RUC. LOOKING AT 850MB, THE NGM PICKED UP ON THE WARMING TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT DID POORLY AT SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST SO SOON. COLD FRONT SHOULD BACK-DOOR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, MAINLY RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TONIGHT. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN LATE THURSDAY, WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO COLDER THAN TONIGHT. FRIDAY SHOWS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AT 7H AND 5H, SO WILL BRING MOCLOUDY SKIES TO WESTERN PARTS, AND PCLOUDY SKIES TO REST. THIS LEADS NICELY TO EFP MENTIONING SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION WITH A DEEPENING LOW/TROUGH NEAR 130-140W. VARIOUS QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES ARE DEPICTED BY THE MODELS TO BE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. ALSO AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST OF THE SHORTWAVES HAS A FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ARRIVAL TIME. THE MRF/AVN/ECMWF HAVE A TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NE/SD AREA. THE CANADIAN, LIKE YESTERDAY, TAKES IT OVER KANSAS. THE WINDS AROUND THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST ARE STILL PROGGED TO HELP ADVECT LOW LEVEL HIGH-RH VALUES INTO KANSAS AT THIS SAME TIME. THUS, WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA, THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY STILL IS THERE. WILL KEEP THE CHANCES ON THE /SLIGHT CHANCE SIDE/ GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE. WILL KEEP THE RAIN OR SNOW WORDING FOR THE SATURDAY PERIOD AND MENTION ONLY SNOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME NO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD BUT KEEPS THE AREA UNDER AN OPEN-GULF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND UPWARD ARE ON THE DRY SIDE...THUS IF THE UPSLOPE IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING UPON THE TIME OF DAY. BUT THIS FAR OUT...I WILL NOT INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST...BUT BUMP THE WEEKEND CLOUD AMOUNT UP TO CLOUDY. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE VISITOR IS FCST FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. AND THIS TIMING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MRF AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT ONE-HALF OF A WAVELENGTH BEHIND HAVING THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES RATHER THAN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN, THE MRF/ECMWF ARE CLOSE WITH THE POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT, THAT OF PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY, HOWEVER THE SFC LOW ALONG THIS FRONT IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT. SFC PLOTS FROM THE CANADIAN ARE NOT AVAILABLE AT 140 HRS FOR COMPARISON. AGAIN, ONLY THE LOW LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARE PROGGED, SO ANY PCPN THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AGAIN WITH A NIGHTTIME INTO DAYTIME PERIOD OF ARRIVAL, WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE MRF SELECTS TO BEGIN EJECTING THE PACIFIC 500 LOW EASTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY VIA THE MRF FCST SOUNDING WE COULD HAVE A RAINY DAY WITH PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS. BUT AT THIS TIME I WILL NOT GO TO THIS EXTREME AND SIMPLE LEAN TOWARDS ARE WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND NOT MENTION ANY PCPN CHANCES. FOR TEMPS, WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM THE CURRENT NUMBERS. WILL BEGIN TO WARM THINGS UP A TAD TUESDAY...AND BEGIN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY. PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST. DDC 024/048 019/043 023 000 GCK 022/049 017/042 021 00- EHA 025/053 022/044 021 00- LBL 024/049 019/044 024 00- HYS 022/049 017/040 023 000 P28 021/052 019/044 026 000 .DDC...NONE. BURKE/SLEIGHTER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 723 AM EST WED FEB 02 2000 DID AN UPDATE TO THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND TO END FLURRIES AROUND GAYLORD... DUE TO THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND STLT DATA. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS 850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO BETWEEN -7C AND -8C WHICH HAS DECREASED THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AND HELPED TO END THE FLURRY ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST LOWER. CURRENTLY NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN IS IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LINGERING SCT-BKN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND THE QUICKLY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LATEST IR STLT SHOWS THE THINNER HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY IN NORTHWEST LOWER WITH THE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. TRACKING STLT DATA SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF WISCONSIN IN AROUND 2 TO 3 HOURS. THEREFORE WILL UPDATE NORTHWEST LOWER ZONES AND GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING AND DROP THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE GAYLORD AND BELLAIRE GROUP. .APX...NONE. SWR mi