AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1014 PM EST MON JAN 31 2000 UPDATE THIS EVENING FOR APCH OF LIGHT SNOW THAT IS NOW MOVING ACRS NRN PART OF FA. REPORTS FM MI HAVE BEEN LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. 18Z ETA AND LATEST RUC SUPPORT THIS ACRS OUR AREA TNGT. VISIBILITIES HAVE RANGED FROM 2 TO 5 MILES ACRS CENTRAL AND SRN MI. UPDATED TO FRESHEN WORDING FOR LIGHT SNOW ALL BUT SW SECTIONS. VORT MAX MOVING ACRS WI NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES SO OPTED FOR MORE OPTIMISTIC WORDING SW FA. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT LIKELY LATER AS VORT APCHS AND FAVORABLE FETCH SETS UP. MOISTURE A PROBLEM AND DELTA T VALUES 12 TO 15. KEPT CURRENT INCH AMOUNTS NEAR LAKE BUT THIS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH FARTHER GIVEN WIND AND CLOUDS. CAA MAY MIX SOME COLDER AIR IN SO KEPT RANGE OF 15 TO 20 MOST AREAS. .IWX...NONE. LASHLEY in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 750 PM CST MON JAN 31 2000 QUESTIONS FOR TNGT WL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS. LATEST STLT IMAGERY AND 01Z NEPHANLYS SHOWS ST MOVG SWD BUT LEADING EDGE ANYTHING BUT LINEAR. LOW CLOUDS INTO NWRN AND NERN IA BUT N CNTRL SXNS WL BE AWHILE WITH LEADING EDGE JUST PAST TWIN CITIES. EXTRAPOLATION PLACES SOLID DECK ACRS ALL OF NRN IA DOWN TO ABT HIGHWAY 20 BY 06Z. UPDATED ZNS TO FOLLOW THIS THINKING AND THEN KEPT SKIES CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. 18Z ETA AND 21Z RUC KEEP HIGH LOW LVL RH THRU 12Z AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY UPSTREAM CONDS WITH CLOUDS TO CANADIAN BORDER. ALSO RAISED MINS OVNGT WITH CLOUDS MOVG SWD WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP. 01Z READINGS STILL INTO LOWER/MIDDLE 20S THRU MN. MAY NOT HAVE RAISED ENOUGH BUT WL HAVE TO SEE WHERE TEMPS END UP BEFORE SKIES BCM CLOUDY. .DSM...NONE SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 927 PM CST MON JAN 31 2000 00Z RUC INDICATES...THAT MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH MEAN RH 1000-500MB INCREASING TO 70% ACROSS EAST TX BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD INTO LA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 80% OVER THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME THE RUC INDICATES ENOUGH ENERGY FROM THE SHORT WAVE OVER UTAH...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NM BY 01/12Z FOR SOME PCPN TO DEVELOP OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA LATER TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASES OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW ETA...IT SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD WHAT THE NGM WAS INDICATING FROM THE MORNING RUN...AT LEAST AFTER TONIGHT. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES...ADJUST TEMPS A LITTLE HERE AND THERE...AND TAKE OUT MENTION OF INCREASING CLOUDS...SINCE CLOUDS HAVE JUST ABOUT SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. .SHV...NONE. IV la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1028 PM EST MON JAN 31 2000 ELONGATED AREA OF DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROFF CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NRN MI. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS NW FLOW AREAS...BUT REGIONAL RADARS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED BANDING AS OF YET...LIKELY DUE TO WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP ON THE SECONDARY VORT LOBE OVER CENTRAL UPR MI ATTM. NEW ETA DOESN'T SHOW THIS FEATURE VERY WELL. BUT BASED ON LATEST RADAR LOOPS AND OBS...THE LATEST RUC IS CERTAINLY CATCHING ON TO REALITY. EXPECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS W OF I-75 WHERE NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. THESE AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO BEFORE DAWN...THEN MORE ORGANIZED LAKE BANDING SETS UP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS N/NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SHSN WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE VORT MAX MOVES E OF THE REGION. TEMPS AND DWPTS UPSTREAM ARE STILL IN THE MID 20S AND UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 RESPECTIVELY. WILL HAVE TO BOOST OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON EVENING TRENDS AND UPSTREAM TEMPS AND DWPTS. .APX...NONE. EME mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 825 PM CST MON JAN 31 2000 MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS WITH CLOUDS/LOW TEMPS. 11-3.9 IR SHOWING AN EXTENSIVE SC AREA ACRS MN...AND EXTENDING WEST INTO DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL SOUNDING FM KMPX/KINL SHOWED THIS TO BE TOP OF SFC COLD AIRMASS TRAPPED UNDER ELEVATED WARM LAYER. 850MB FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC THROUGH 06Z AS CAA CONTINUES. HOWEVER...AFT MIDNT FLOW BECOMES INCRLY ANTICYCLONIC AND CAA DIMINISHES. IN ADDITION...CORE OF 300 MB JET SHIFTS EAST INTO WI. HOWEVER...MODELS TRADITIONALLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME DEALING WITH POSTFRONTAL SC DUE TO RESOLUTION LIMITS. IN FACT...18Z ETA AND LATEST RUC SHOW MAINLY CLR SKIES BY 06Z. ATTM...WILL KEEP THICKER CLOUD COVER IN OVERNIGHT...AS LACK OF MIXING/DRY AIR INTRUSION SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO LINGER IN FACE OF LESS SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. WILL UPDATE LOWS TO RELFECT THIS. WILL UPDATE SECOND PERIOD TO INDICATE MORNING CLEARING. .MSP...NONE DAVIS mn FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 845 PM CST MON JAN 31 2000 FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONTINUES TO BE CLOUDS AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. COMPARING MODEL DATA WITH 11-3.9 IMAGERY MESO-ETA AND RUC TOO FAST BUT GENERALLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK IN BRINGING DRYING/CLEARING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FA AS SFC HIGH AND NVA DROP SOUTH. HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS MAY NOT CLEAR OFF. INL SOUNDING INDICATING SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT OR BLO INVERSION AND MAY BE TOUGH TO ERODE OUT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO HAVE QUITE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. TEMPS CURRENTLY PRETTY UNIFORM FROM 20 TO 25 BUT SINGLE DIGITS POISED JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER IN CLEARING. WILL NEED TO MAKE TEMP ADJUSTMENTS ON DELAYED CLEARING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH AND WEST. .FGF...NONE. VOELKER nd TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 915 PM CST MON JAN 31 2000 LATEST 88D IMAGES FROM AROUND AREA INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS EXTREME SRN TX PNHDL SW TO W KLBB. PRECIP MOST LIKELY ASSCD WITH WEAK H8 WAA PATTERN SPREADING ACROSS S PLAINS. 00Z RUC/18Z MESOETA ALSO SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN REGION S OF FA. THIS FCST TO SHIFT SE OVERNIGHT AWAY FM PNHDLS. SFC LOW ANLYZD ACROSS SE NM WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS ERN PLAINS NM PROVIDING SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE. UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE VCNTY FOUR CORNERS WILL MOVE SE INTO N CNTRL NM BY 12Z. UPPER JET AND ASSCD DIVERGENCE ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SRN NM. SW CORNER FA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN MOST FAVORED REGION FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT THOUGH BULK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN S AND W. PRECIP TYPE ALSO NOT CERTAIN AS LATEST WINTER COMPOSITE SHOWS WARM H8 TEMPS/HIGH H8-H7 THCKNS THROUGH MUCH OF NIGHT WITH SFC WET BULBS BELO FREEZING SO BREIF PERIOD FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 09Z. CURRENT FCST HAS POPS ALIGNED WELL...MAY NEED TO UPDATE TO TAKE OUT LATE WORDING IF LIGHT RADAR ECHOES ORGANIZE FURTHER IN SE ZNS. OTHWS WILL LEAVE FCST ALONE. TIMING OF NEXT SHOT OF CAA ON TRACK WITH 00Z RUC INDICATING NRLY WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 09Z. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. COBB tx DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1015 AM CST MON JAN 31 2000 A FEW FORECAST PROBLEMS HAVE ARISEN OVERNIGHT WITH FORMATION OF SURFACE LOW 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE OVER THE GULF. CIRCULATION OF THIS LOW IS GIVING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA A NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND WHILE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS ARE SEEING A NORTHEASTERLY WIND AT THIS TIME. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS COASTAL LOW MOVING NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF PORT ISABEL. THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST. LOCAL WORKSTATION ETA MODEL SHOWS THE LOW ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRO AT THE SAME 00Z TIME TONIGHT. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE WORKSTATION ETA AND THE LATEST RUC SHOW COASTAL ZONES SHOULD REMAIN IN A NORTH AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WILL MAKE THIS WIND CHANGE IN THE ZONES. TOUGH CALL ON TEMPS BUT AT LEAST THEY ARE IN THE 50S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS. THE NW WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST BELOW MOS ONCE AGAIN. WILL LOWER POPS OUT WEST AND JUST MENTION SOME SPRINKLES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS OF 295K SURFACE SHOWS SOME DECENT LIFTING TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS SURFACE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO SHORE. MARINE...HAVE ADDED WORDING FOR SCEC IN THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WITH SEAS AT 5 TO 6 FEET. THE WIND FORECAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS COASTAL LOW. 69 .BRO...NONE. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 835 PM EST MON JAN 31 2000 ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC THETA E AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DROPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FRONT IS JUST BY MIA. DON'T BELEIVE IT WILL GO MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SHOWERS EXTEND ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT IS NOT ADVECTING THIS WAY...THEY ARE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. OUTSIDE OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE...I CAN'T SEE MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THE NGM RIGHT NOW IS THE PREFERRED MODEL. FOR THE PM UPDATE...WILL DROP THE POPS A BIT AND LEAVE IN MOSTLY SKIES. TEMPS LOOK FINE. ONLY MINOR CHGS TO CWF. .MIA...NONE. fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1003 PM EST MON JAN 31 2000 SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE MAINE COAST WILL REACH THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR SNOW TO TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: MAIN CONCERN IS LEFTOVER SN & TEMPS. WILL LET WRNGS/ADVS DIE NATURAL DEATH. A BAND OF SN MOVG OUT OF NE ME & ANOTHER AREA MOVG THRU WASHINGTON CNTY. 21Z RUC2 WAS HANDLING THGS PRETTY GOOD. LOW TO CONT TO DEEPEN AS IT HEADS TWD GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE. ANOTHER WEAKER VORT MAX TO MOVE ACRS NRN & CNTL CWFA OVNGT. THIS FTRE COULD SET OFF SOME MORE SCTD SHSN. WILL KEEP HIEST POPS FOR NRN/CNTL ZNS W/AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMS. OTRW... THGS QUIETING DOWN. PRVS FCST TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK. WILL MAKE FINAL TWEAKS AFT 10PM OBS. COASTAL WATERS: GLW LOOKS TO AS SOME GUSTS RPRTD NR 40 KTS. WILL TWEAK FOR GUSTS OTRW...PRVS PKG IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. .CAR...GLW FOR COASTAL WATERS. JOE me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 330 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2000 A QUITE AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BE THE RULE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 500MB COMPARISON OF THE ETA/NGM/AVN INDICATED RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SIGNIFICANT 500MB TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DURING PERIOD WITH NEW TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD MOVE EITHER NORTH OF US ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA OR WELL SOUTH OF US ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. INFRARED IMAGES INDICATED THE ENTIRE CWA WAS CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TODAY...00Z KABR SOUNDING INDICATED THE CLOUD DECK ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WAS ONLY (25 TO 30)MB DEEP. IR IMAGES INDICATED CLEARING WAS TAKING PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WARM ADVECTION RETURNING BY LATE MORNING ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. INSPECTION OF THE ETA/NGM/06Z RUC 925MB RH INDICATED VALUES REALLY DROP OFF BY 18Z TODAY. WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN CURRENT FORECAST AND GO BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY FOR TODAY. THINK MOST OF CWA WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY AROUND MIDDAY. WILL GO A TAD BIT ABOVE FWC/FAN VALUES FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH IS CLOSER TO FMR VALUES. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD BRING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO THE REGION. ETA/NGM INDICATED HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. THINK MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD SUFFICE AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER FAN GUIDANCE. WEDNESDAY...MODELS (ETA/NGM) IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING SIGNIFICANT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AS PER TIME CROSS SECTIONS. WILL WORD ZONE GROUPINGS PARTLY SUNNY. MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY IS TEMPERATURES. IN ABERDEEN...FWC INDICATED A HIGH OF 42 WHILE THE FAN INDICATED 46. FOR ABERDEEN...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FWC SINCE WE ARE IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND CLOUD COVER. FOR PIERRE...FWC INDICATED A HIGH OF 44 WHILE THE FAN INDICATED 51. SINCE PIERRE HAS A STRONG TENDENCY TO BE WARMER THAN FWC...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FAN FOR HIGHS. MRF IS BACKING OFF ON SYSTEM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT STILL WARRANTS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THOSE TWO DAYS. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE EXTENDED PACKAGE. .ABR...NONE. ECKBERG/MOHR sd EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 930 AM EST TUE FEB 01 2000 CURRENTLY...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SCT-BKN LOW AND MID CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE GAP IN CLOUDS JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST. 88D-KMLB INDICATES THE LIGHT RAIN THAT WAS OCCURRING OVER SAINT LUCIE COUNTY HAS DISSIPATED IN THE LAST HOUR. SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH OVER CWA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. DISCUSSION...LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND IT ALSO KEEPS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE VARIABLE OVER FORECAST AREA TODAY. I WILL ADJUST SKY COVER IN ZONES... EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS GOOD. MARINE...LATEST 41009 BUOY AT 9 AM SHOWS NORTH WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 3.6 FEET. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CWF. .MLB...NONE. JMB fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 912 AM MST TUE FEB 1 2000 CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A TONGUE OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CWA ALMOST TO DDC. LATEST RUC INDICATED NORTH WIND UNTIL AFTER 18Z. HAVE AMENDED EASTERN ZONE TO REFLECT THIS. .GLD...NONE SVEN ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1113 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2000 ...UPDATE CONCERNS ARE DIMINISHING LES...TEMPS AND CLOUDS. 15Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM NW ONTARIO-N MN-S CNTRL NB. 88D REFLECTIVITIES LOOP DEPICTING MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS E OF MQT W/ ISOLD MAX 28DBZ PERSISTING. TO THE WEST OF MQT REFLECTIVITIES DECREASING AS MIXED LAYER PROFILE BACKS NW AS SFC RIDGE AXIS PRESSES INTO E MN. LL TRAJECTORIES WILL PERIST OUT OF W AND CNTRL ONTARIO THIS AFT W/ 12Z RUC/06Z MESOETA DEPICTED INVERSION HGTS CONTINUING TO LOWER BLO 2KFT OVR W SUPERIOR. VIS IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING DECREASING CLDS OVER SW ZONES..AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO INTO S CNTRL ZONES W/ DEVELOPING WAA AS H85 THERMAL TROF SLIPS SE RESULTING IN 2-3C H85 WARMING. OVR E SUPERIOR DELTA/T'S BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 18Z FROM CURRENTLY 18C TO 16C BY 00Z SUPPORTING EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING TREND. HAVE UPDATED TO REFLECT CLD TREND IN SW AND SC ZONES...AND WENT W/ NEARLY STEADY TEMPS MOST AREAS PER FLP GUIDANCE. ALSO ADJUST WINDS DOWN BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND DIMINISHING TREND..ESPECIALLY SW. .MQT...NONE. WOLF mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 105 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2000 FORECAST PROBLEM...LOW CLOUDS TODAY. ...SYNOPSIS...IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ENTERING FROM THE NORTH. 05Z AND 06Z RUC...AND 18Z ETA NOT HANDLING THIS SITUATION VERY WELL THIS TIME. 00Z RUNS OF AVN AND ETA LOOK MORE IN LINE ON LOWER LEVEL RH FIELDS. NGM THE OUTLIER...HOLDING LOW CLOUDS TOO FAR NORTH WHEN COMPARED WITH 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE WATER VAP IMAGERY INDICATE STRONG SYSTEM HAS PUNCHED ITS WAY INTO PUGET SOUND WITH STRONG FAST ZONAL JET SUPPORTING ITS PUSH ON SHORE. WILL FAVOR AN ETA/AVN BLEND. TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER RH OF 85-100 PERCENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PERSIST EAST OF A MCK-VTN LINE THROUGH THE DAY. COMPARING PESSIMISTIC ETA WITH LESS PESSIMISTIC AVN RH FIELDS...ETA HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON 06Z RH FIELDS IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. AVN MISSED THE FOG IN KANSAS AT 06Z. FIGURE THE ETA WILL BE ON TRACK FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY. WITH THAT IN MIND...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET VERY WARM UNDER THE CLOUD COVER. NO WAA TO SPEAK OF IN CWA UNTIL 00Z. FWC GUIDANCE NO HELP AS IT INDICATES CLEAR SKIES EVERYWHERE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S. FEEL THIS WILL BE ABOUT RIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT. .TONIGHT...WAA MORE EVIDENT AT 850MB WITH A WEST WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LEE SIDE TROF DEVELOPS. THAT SHOULD AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP A TAD. MECHANICAL MIXING WILL NOT BE OVERWHELMING... AND SNOW COVER EXPECTED TO STILL BE A FACTOR IN TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. WITH THESE THINGS OFF-SETTING EACH OTHER...GUIDANCE ACTUALLY LOOKS OK FOR LOWS. NOT EXPECTING A RETURN OF ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG WITH COMPRESSIONAL WEST WIND. .WED/NIGHT...SFC TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE. DOWNSLOPE WIND PROMISING TO BRING 8C AT 850 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA (PER ETA) AND THINK WE WILL FINALLY GET RID OF REMAINING SNOW. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS TO CONTEND WITH OFFSETTING SOME INSOLATION...BUT FEEL HIGHS OF 50 TO 55 WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION AS MAIN WARMING TO COME FROM TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. EXTENDED...THE LAST THREE MRF RUNS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SYSTEM COMING IN FOR FRIDAY. PLACEMENT HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE NORTH AND WEST EACH DAY. DO NOT EXPECT CHANGES BUT WILL MONITOR AND COORDINATE ANY ADJUSTMENTS IF THEY BECOME APPARENT. .LBF...NONE. SLM ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 934 PM EST MON JAN 31 2000 SAT IMAGERY SHOWING LLVL CLOUDINESS DROPPING RAPDILY SEWD INTO FA. 18Z MESOETA HANDLES THIS WELL WITH H8 MOISTURE CHARTS AND IT PROGS MOISTURE TO BE ACROSS FA BY 06Z. THUS...WL GO WITH CLOUDY IN ALL GROUPS. MAJOR CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WL BE THE STRONG S/WV DROPPING ACROSS THE LAKES. -SHSN ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS LWR MI. THIS IS LIKELY LAKE ENHANCED BUT BLV IT WL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT PUSHES INTO NERN FA. 18Z MESOETA AND 00Z RUC INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE IS MOVG FASTER AND IS A LITTLE FURTHER W THAN THE 12Z MON SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED. THUS...WL NEED TO ADD CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS S OF AOH...DAY...AND CMH. WL LIKELY CARRY SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. WL ADD A FEW FLURRIES TO CVG-PMH. WL LOOK AT THE 00Z ETA BEFORE RELEASING ZONES. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH THE CLOUDS MOVG IN WE ARE LIKELY NEAR OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH GO WITH A NEARLY STEADY WORDING BASED ON 10 PM TEMPS. .ILN...NONE. WILKINSON oh SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1026 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2000 AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK IS SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SE NM BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING. 12Z ETA/RUC RUNS INDICATE THE LOW TO BE DEEPER AND DISPLACED SOUTHWEST OF THE 00Z RUNS AND WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER JET STREAK OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS THE LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE POLAR JET WITH ONLY THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL FLOW TO STEER IT ALONG. AS THE BASE OF THE LOW BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 100 MI EAST OF PADRE ISLAND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH WITH STRATIFORM RAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WORDING STILL APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS WELL SO WILL LEAVE LATER PERIODS INTACT. IN THE SHORT TERM MAY REARRANGE ZONES SLIGHTLY TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT PATTERN OF SHOWERS. SUN HAS BROKEN THROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST COUNITES SO WILL LIFT MAX TEMPS THERE. ANY OTHER CHANGES WILL BE COSMETIC. .EWX...NONE. 18/02 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX 1006 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2000 IN LIEU OF CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS...HAVE TWEAKED BIG BEND/DAVIS MTNS/MARFA PLATEAU CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN AND GUADALUPE LOWLANDS. LOOKING AT LATEST RUC H85 TEMPS... HAVE BACKED OFF WSW TILL THE 2ND PD AND WILL RE-ISSUE SHORTLY ALONG W/UPDATED AFP. .MAF... TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR TXZ047-048-052-053-063-070. NM...NONE. 44 tx SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION ...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 746 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2000 SPEED MAX APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER PRODUCING MORE LIFT THAN I HAD PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...12Z RUC INDICATES UPPER DIVERGENCE TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS. ...PREV DISC... SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IN CO FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NW CORNER OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SE OF BRO ATTM PER SATELLITE. THESE TWO FEATURES LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKERS FOR SETX THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS WILL TREND FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE AVN. ETA APPEARS TO BE OVERFORECASTING THE STRENGTH OF SURFACE PATTERN IN THE EAST. CURRENT INTERPRETATION OF AVN PROGS INDICATES CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL TROUGH MAINLY CRP SOUTHWARD. UPPER JET AXIS IS OVER SETX AND THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SAG SE WHICH WILL PUT US IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE OF THE BARELY CYCLONICLY CURVED JET. LOW TO MID LEVELS SHOW THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TO SOUTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER SETX SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER AND WITH VERY WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MAY GET A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN...ATTM TX RADARS INDICATING VIRGA MOVING OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY BORNE EAST ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN TIGHT NEAR THE COAST WITH MAINLY AN EAST COMPONENT...LEADING TO STEADY INCREASE IN TIDES MOST LIKELY 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...SWELLS PROPAGATING IN AND HIGHER TIDES COULD LEAD TO BEACH EROSION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS FOR THE PRECIP BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY...EAST A DEEPER DRIER LAYER UNDERNEATH SHOULD FAVOR A LOWER POP. PRECIP THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. DUE TO FAVORING THE AVN SOLUTION ATTM A CAVEAT HAS TO BE THROWN OUT THERE...THE ETA "USUALLY" DOES BETTER WITH THE FORECASTING OF COASTAL TROUGH SCENARIOS...FOR THE TIME BEING WILL HOLD OFF ON BUY INTO THE ETA YET DUE TO CURRENT ETA VERIFICATION. WEDNESDAY POPS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT APPROACHES STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES REACHING A PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THE THUNDER WOULD BE MORE PROBABLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. NORTHEAST WIND IN THE COASTAL TROUGH CIRCULATION AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND VIRGA WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL-COOL MAX TEMPS. .HGX...SCA COASTAL WATERS EXCLUDING BAYS. 45/34/TOM PRELIMS... CLL CR 053/044 051/038 060 5684 IAH CW 057/046 052/040 060 6685 GLS CW 060/052 056/051 059 7785 PSX CW 060/052 056/050 060 5885 SW INLAND CW 060/050 054/041 060 7885 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 244 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2000 ...SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A GUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. FOG PRODUCT AND IR SHOW THE FIELD OF LOW ST/SC CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLEARING PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN/EASTERN MINNESOTA. THE CLEARING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION BEHIND THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE AND THE NOSE OF A UPPER JET STREAK. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE RIDGE RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. MOISTURE ANALYSIS HAS DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. 12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED OK BUT THE AVN WAS VERIFYING MUCH BETTER AT 18Z WITH THE ETA JUST A TAD EAST. THE NGM WAS TOO FAST AND HAS BEEN THROWN OUT. AVN ALSO HAS SOME BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY SO WILL FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE AVN FOR THIS PACKAGE. ETA STARTS OUT OK BUT THEN ACCELERATES THE MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS LATER IN ITS FORECAST CYCLE. AVN BUILDS THE RIDGE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT. CURRENT CLOUDS ARE NOT BEING HANDLED THE BEST BY THE AVN/ETA/RUC BUT 925 MB RH ISN/T BAD. SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST CLEARING TO OCCUR THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP. HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONCE WINDS TURN WEST TONIGHT CLOUDS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY MAY ADVECT BACK INTO THE AREA. SOUNDING PROFILES KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER QUITE MOIST SO BELIEVE SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE/REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER CLEARING TAKES PLACE. WEDNESDAY BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST IN SPITE OF DOWNWARD MOTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE GRADUAL MELTING OF THE SNOW FIELD. SOUNDING PROFILES ALSO SHOW MOST OF THE WARMING TO BE OFF THE SURFACE SO ALTHOUGH THE IDEA OF WARMER TEMPERATURES IS CORRECT THE MAGNITUDE IS INCORRECT AND WILL LOWER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. NEXT SYSTEM TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LAKE SUPERIOR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER SOMEWHAT WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY BUSHING THE AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME FLURRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS NORTH THAN SOUTH. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY LOOK WAY TOO WARM AND WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. ADDITIONALLY THE TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN STRONGER...FARTHER WEST...AND A LITTLE FASTER. AVN SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL WITH TEMPERATURES CRASHING LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY. ...EXTENDED... EXTENDED GETS QUITE INTERESTING WITH GLOBAL MODELS FLIP-FLOPPING CONSIDERABLY ON THE INCOMING COASTAL SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST OF A DRY FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD GIVEN ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA. AVN EXTENDED DEVELOPS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WAA PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN THE BIG CHANGES OF THE MODELS PREFER TO DELAY THE CURRENT SNOW FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY. COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...ILX...AND STL. .DVN...NONE. NC il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 210 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2000 ...MAIN CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG JET ACROSS THE PACIFIC FORGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. DOWN STREAM FROM THIS JET RESIDES A MID- LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS BEING PUSHED TO THE EAST. HOW FAR THE RIDGE WILL GET TO THE EAST BEFORE BEING FLATTENED BY JET ENERGY HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT INCONSISTENCIES IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. ETA THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS PROGRESSION. DPROG/DT SUGGESTS REGIME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL NOT LEAD TO AS MUCH WARMING AS PREVIOUS RUNS. AGREE WITH THIS SUGGESTION. IN THE SHORT TERM...SUBTRACTION IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL IN THE 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE 01/00Z ETA AND THE 01/06Z RUC. BOTH SHOW THIS MOISTURE BEING PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN. WILL INDICATE A TREND OF CLOUDS CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. ALSO...TEMPERATURES ARE RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. WILL UP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH. WILL MAKE THE FINAL EVALUATION AFTER THE 09Z OBSERVATIONS. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT AN ABUNDANCE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK MODELS TOO FAST IN RETURN FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL UNDERCUT MOS AS A RESULT. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY...ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY LOOKS GOOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. .LSE...NONE. KRC wi