EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 849 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2000 BANDS OF SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PRODUCING BRIEF BUT HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. LARGER RAINBAND OVER THE NECK OF THE PENINSULA DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE NRN CWA. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S/L60S WILL DROP AS NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ADVECT DRIER AIR...BUT CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS A TOUCH WARMER THAN EXPECTED. INDEED...RUC MODEL DEPICTS A BAND OF HIGH RH SAGGING ACROSS THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPS OVER THE NORTH...POPS MAY NEED SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT OVER THE SOUTH. MARINE...DATA BUOYS INDICATING SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HANDLE ON IT. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. .MLB...NONE. BRAGAW fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 815 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2000 SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE TONIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC. IT ALSO SHOWS THE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH FLORIDA MOVING TO A DAB-BKV LINE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE ETA SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKENING. 70% PLUS MRH BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH INDICATES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE FCST. IN THE STORM TERM...THE RUC KEEPS SOUTH FLORIDA FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A DRYING OUT OF THE 950 TO 850 MB LEVEL SINCE THIS MORNING (AT LEAST A 10 DEGRRE SPREAD). WITH LIGHT SE TO S FLOW...NO POPS NEEDED. AREAS OF FOG LOOKS GOOD EXCEPT ALONG THE SE COASTAL ZONES WHERE THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REAL GOOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CWF WILL BE MADE...WITH MOSTLY SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL ADJUSTMENTS. .MIA...NONE. fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 221 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2000 AT 18Z ONLY RUC HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THE VORT MAXES IN AREA WITH MAIN 1 W OF FWA AND ANOTHER WKR 1 E OF UIN. MORE IMPORTANT FEATURE WAS THE 850 CIRCULATION SE OF IKK STILL PRODUCING -SHSN OVER N 1/4 IL. INTERESTING TO WATCH TODAY THE STUFF PINWHEEL ARND CIRC ALL DAY. IN ANY CASE ALL WILL ACCELERATE E TNGT AS TROF FROM NW PUSHES SE. CLRG TNGT NW-SE WITH NW IN LAST TO SEE IT. SOME HI CLDS AGAIN MON WITH NW VORT. NOT A REAL COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT MON NGT. MDLS THEN SHOW LO LVL MOISTURE PART OF MON NGT BEFORE SUN TUE. AS SYSTEM MOVS AWAY TNGT WNDS TO PICK UP FROM WNW TO BLOW AWAY THE HZ/BR IN AREA THIS AFTN. TEMPS LOOK OK. FAVOR SLIGHTLY WRMR FWC MON. .CHI...NONE AF il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 830 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2000 WILL BEGIN TAKING DOWN WRNGS IN THIS UPDATE BEGINNING WITH THE SW AND W PTNS WHERE PCPN HAS ENDED OR DMSHD. ERN AND NERN SXNS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE GUN THRU AT LEAST 03Z WITH A NASTY MIX AND MAY HOLD THE WRNG THRU MIDN. ALL AREAS SHUD BE COMING OUT OF THIS BY MIDN OR SHORTLY THRFTR. A COMPLICATED MIX WITH SNW RNGG FM GENLY 4-8 INCHES N AND W (ABT 10 INCHES MAX RPRTD THUS FAR) TO AN INCH OR LESS OF ICE/SLEET SERN SXNS. A QTR TO A HLF INCH ICE LWR SRN MD AND ALG WRN SHORE OF THE BAY S AND E OF A BWI-DCA LN AND STARTING TO GET A FEW RPRTS OF POWER OUTAGES... MNLY NRN NECK VA SO FAR. THIS COMPLICATED MIX IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE AREA THAN THE ALL SNW EVENT LAST WEEK BUT THE EVENT HAS PROGRESSED IN AN ORDERLY MANNER THANKS LRGLY TO ACCURATE AND VRY CONSISTNT ETA/AVN MDLS. THOSE MDLS AND THE LTST RUC SHFT THE FOCUS OF MOST FORCG/PCPN TO THE BAY AND POINTS N AND E BY 03Z AND BYND...AND THAT SUPPORTED BY RADAR/SATL TRENDS. THE DPNG SFC LOW NOW PASSG NORFOLK VCNTY WILL LIFT RPDLY NWD TO NR THE JERSEY SHORE BY 06Z. RADAR SHOWG A LAST BURST OF PCPN ASSOCD WITH THE LOW NOW AFFECTG ERN AREAS. MEANWHL THE TRAILING BACK EDGE OF THE LRGR AREA OF PCPN IS LIFTG NEWD THRU VA AND WRN MD...PCPN HAS ENDED SWRN SXNS ARND CHO/SHD. THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY AND SMWHT MILDR. .LWX...WNTR STORM WRNG TIL MIDN N BALTIMORE-HARFORD-BALT CITY-HOWARD- MONTGOMERY-ANNE ARUNDEL-PRINCE GEORGES-D.C./ARLINGTON-FAIRFAX- PRINCE WILLIAM-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE-CHARLES-ST MARYS-CALVERT. JLW md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 250 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2000 MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP SHOWING UP ALL OVER KLWX AND KAKQ RADARS.. WITH SOME BREAKS FINALLY SHOWING UP ON KFCX RADAR OVER FAR SWRN VA. ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF 3-5 INCHES FOR ALOT OF AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FAR SOUTHERN MD AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF VA AREA HAVE RECEIVED MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN... WHILE PRECIP TYPE HAS CHANGED BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE DC AREA. 12Z ETA AND 18Z RUC INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF FREEZING PRECIP FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF FA. ETA STILL SUGGESTS THAT NHK AREA WILL GO ABOVE FREEZING.. BUT THERE TEMP HAS HELD STEADY AT 30 FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND DON'T SEE ANY WARM SURFACE TEMPS MAKING THEIR WAY UP INTO THE AREA. 18Z RUC STILL SUGGESTS THAT WARM SURGE MOVING UP ALONG WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL CHANGE SNOW TO A MIX FOR DC AND BALTIMORE.. BUT RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL SNOW FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CITIES. QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE 18Z RUC INDICATE ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF PRECIP BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z... SO EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A SIGNIFICANT ICE EVENT LIKELY FROM EZF TO NHK TO JUST SOUTH OF ANNAPOLIS. A MIXTURE LIKELY FOR DC AND BALTIMORE. SEVERAL REPORTS OF AN INCH OR TWO NEAR THE CITIES... SO WILL UP SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO A 3-5 RANGE. STILL PLAN TO ADVERTISE 6-12 INCH TOTALS NORTH AND WEST OF DC... WITH ALREADY 3-4 ON THE GROUND AND A POSSIBLE 4-6 THIS EVENING THOSE TOTALS APPEAR IN LINE. PLAN TO CUT TOTALS TO 4-8 RIGHT UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.. WHERE THE PRECIP HAS BEEN A LITTLE LIGHTER. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP EVERYWHERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRECIP TAPERS OFF PRETTY QUICKLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z PER LATEST RUC FORECAST. UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE NWRN PORTION OF THE AREA TOMORROW... AND SHOULD KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT PART OF THE FA. WILL MENTION SOME FLURRIES ALONG THE MOUNTAINS IN CASE SOMETHING SPILLS OVER. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FAIR DEAL OF SUN AS W/NW FLOW STRENGTHENS. FAN TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN FWC FOR HIGHS. WITH NEW SNOW PACK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.. WILL STICK CLOSER TO FWC TEMPS. .LWX...WNTR STORM WRNG ALL ZNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MARGRAF! md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 1000 AM EST SUN JAN 30 2000 KLWX RADAR BEGINNING TO FILL IN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.. WHILE KFCX RADAR SHOWING A RATHER LARGE AREA OF SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP HEADING UP IN OUR DIRECTION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF OF THE SC COAST... AND PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE THAT TRACK FORECAST FROM RUC AND ETA APPEARS PRETTY GOOD AT TIME. MODELS BOTH INDICATING A HUGE SURGE OF WAMR ADVECTION AND UPWARD MOTION THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.. AND FEEL THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE ESPECIALLY ROUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MIXED PRECIP REPORTED THIS AM IN SWRN PORTION OF FA... AND TEMP FIELDS FROM 12Z RUC AND 06Z ETA APPEAR IN LINE. LOOKS LIKE LINE MARKING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ALL SNOW AND MIXTURE OF PRECIP WILL LIE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST OF BALTIMORE.. TO FAIRFAX COUNTY... TO BETWEEN CHO AND SHD. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC AND ETA INDICATE A PRETTY GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF A MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATION FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MD... AND POSSIBLY INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES IN VA. PRECIP MAY EVENTUALLY CHANGEOVER TO RAIN NEAR NHK... BUT EVEN THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LATE. THUNDER SNOW REPORTED A LITTLE WHILE AGO AT BKW... AND STABILITY FIELDS AND THETA-E PROFILES INDICATE THAT POSSIBILITY EXTENDING UP INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HIGHLIGHT 1-2 INCH PER HOUR ACCUMULATIONS IN WSW. QPF TOTALS FROM THE 06Z ETA AND FROM THE 12Z RUC INDICATE A AROUND 0.75 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA... WITH SOME SPOTS IN SRN MD APPROACHING AN INCH. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN ZONES LOOK IN ORDER AT TIME.. EXCEPT FOR IAD/FDK/W54 WHERE CHANCES FOR ANY MIXED PRECIP LOOK LESS THAN BEFORE. WILL RAISE SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS AREA TO 5 TO 10 INCHES. PLAN TO RELEASE 18Z LWX SOUNDING FOR THOSE WHO ARE INTERESTED. .LWX...WNTR STORM WRNG ALL ZNS. MARGRAF! md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1033 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2000 LATEST KAPX RADAR LOOP SHOWS A STEADY DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW ACROSS NRN LOWER MI. WHILE LATEST RUC SEEMS TO PORTRAY THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT A BIT FURTHER NW THAN REALITY... IT DOES HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF DIMINISHING LIFT AND THUS DECREASING PRECIP. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE MENTION ON LIGHT SNOW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL STICK WITH A DIMINIHSING TREND TO FLURRIES. WILL ALSO HAVE TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A NOTCH FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS SOME CLEAR PATCHES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TEMPS TO FORECASTED LOWS. WIND FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE SFC LOW. .APX...NONE. EME mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 820 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2000 QUICK UPDATED TO ZONES TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST RADAR LOOP AND OBS SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT IN SNOWFALL ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND S OF A LINE FROM APN TO APX TO TVC IN AN AREA OF COLD CONVEYOR ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I285). LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THIS AREAS A BIT TOO FAR NW OVER THE STRAITS TO AROUND PLN AND ACB. BASED ON IMR METHOD...EXPECT ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND AN INCH OR LESS FOR AREAS FROM APN TO APX TO TVC. .APX...NONE. EME mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 945 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2000 ERN AND SRN CWFA GETTING ABSOLUTELY BLITZED TONIGHT AS WELL ADVERTISED AND FORECAST CYCLOGENESIS GETS CRANKING OFF VA COAST. WV LOOP SHOWS DARKENING AND THUS DEEPENING AS DRY CONVEYOR PUNCHES INTO THE BCLN ZN. 00Z UA HAND ANALYSIS (YES...I STILL DO THEM) SHOWS SYS CUTOFF AND NEG TILT ALRDY AT H8...AHEAD OF ANY MDLS INCLDG LATEST RUC WHICH I FEEL IS TOP PERFORMER OF AN EXCELLENT NWP SUITE THIS TIME AROUND. SNOW SPOTTER AND CALLS TO 911 CENTERS SHOW 4-6" ALRDY IN THE POCS AND CATSKILLS WITH 2 IN/HR RATES ALREADY AND WE/RE STILL WATCHING THE WARMUP ACT. CONVEYOR SYSTEM GETS MORE ORGANIZED AS RUC SHOWS CONTD DEEPENING AND CUTTING OFF OF UPR SYS AT LEAST THRU H8. INTERSXN OF WCB/CCB AND BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE BCLN ZONE SHUD MOVE OVER SUSQ RGN...CATS AND NEPA LATE TONITE. RUC SHOWED THIS FORCING ALIGNING WELL WITH HVY SN AND MIXED PCP AMTS OVER INTERIOR MD AND VA EARLIER THIS EVENING. 21Z RUC BRINGS THIS TO CNTRL AND ERN CWFA BTWN 06-09Z AS SFC LOW RUNS UP TO NYC BY 09Z. RUC QPF IS NOW STAGGERING WITH .82" BULLSEYE OVR CATS AND POCS BTWN 03Z AND 09Z. MDL TRENDS ARE GOOD AND ANALYSIS SOUND. BASED ON RADAR RATES...AMTS FALLEN AND WHAT/S TO COME...WL UP SNO TOTS IN WRN CATS/POCS TO A FOOT-FOOT AND A HALF! WL MAKE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO ADVSRYS OR WARNINGS ALREADY IN PLACE AS WRN/NRN FRINGE COUNTIES SHOULD FALL SAFELY WITHIN PRESENT FCSTS. TWEEKS ONLY MADE TO AMTS. TEMPS STEADY. SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY SRN AND WRN AREAS AROUND MORNING...SOME WRAPAROUND LIKELY NORTH AND EAST. .BGM...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT PAZ040-043-044-047-048-NYZ062. WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY NYZ009-024-025-036-037-044>046-055>057-PAZ038-039 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY NYZ015>018-022-023 BREWSTER ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 905 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2000 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD IN THE CENTRAL PART OF SD CONT TO DISSIPATE. LATEST RUC SHOWS 1000-700MB RH WILL DRY SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENTLY KABR AND KATY CARRYING 6SM BR...BUT FEEL THAT WITH DRY AIR COMING IN...VSBY FALLING FARTHER THAN THAT NOT A REALITY. WILL NEATEN UP CLOUD COVER AND LOOK AT TEMPS. UPDATED FORECAST OUT SHORTLY. .ABR...NONE. HINTZ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 320 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2000 MAIN PRBLMS AGAIN ARE IN THE SHORT TERM AND EXTENDED. SAT LOOP SHOWS LOW CLDS THINNING...DECREASING RAPIDLY ACROSS SD. ONE CLEARING LINE IS ADVANCING FM THE JAMES VALLEY TOWARD I 29...WITH THINNING CLOUDS OVER CNTRL SD. RUC 925MB CONTS TO SHOW A GNRL TREND OF DRYING IN THE CWA THRU TNGT. BUT SOME PATCHY SC KEEPS DVLPING IN THE CLEARING ZONE OVR THE JAMES VALLEY AND TOWARD THE MO RIVER. IN THE EAST...CLOUDS WL TAKE AWHILE TO CLEAR OUT. WORDED ZONES ACCORDINGLY TO THESE TRENDS. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND RELATIVELY MOIST SFC DEW PTS...FOG MAY AGAIN DVLP HERE AND THERE TNGT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SNOW COVER. WINDS SHOULD TURN ARND TO THE SW BUT LIGHT ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA TNGT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AHD OF NXT SFC TROF/CDFNT MOVG SOUTH. RH TIME SECTIONS SHOW DRY AIR MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. HOWEVER SOMETHING A BIT CONCERNING IS THE NGM SHOWS A POCKET OF HIGH RH NR THE SFC AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. ACTS LIKE IT IS TRYING TO ADVECT MSTR IN WITH THE LIGHT NORTH WINDS BUT NOT SURE FM WHERE. AVN/ETA TIME SECTIONS ARE MOIST NR THE SFC THRU THE ENTIRE PD BUT USUALLY ARE ANYWAY...SO HARD TO TELL WHAT IS GOING ON. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO WATCH THIS TO SEE IF FOG OR LOW CLDS MAY DVLP LATER MON NIGHT. LEFT OUT FOR NOW. MDLS SIMILAR IN BRINGING FAST MOVG CDFNT THRU TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. WL CLIP THE BKX TO SPW AREAS THE MOST...SO KEPT SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EAST AND TEMPS RATHER COOL. NXT CANADIAN HIGH THEN MOVES DOWN BEHIND THE FNT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH VERY LIGHT NRLY WINDS. MAY HAVE TROUBLE WARMING UP AGAIN IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT...COOL WINDS...AND SNOW COVER. WEST SHOULD WM UP STILL...AS HON IS 30 ALREADY RIGHT NOW WITH NO PROBLEM AT ALL. IN THE EXTENDED...FINALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NEW AVN AND LAST NIGHT'S MRF VALID WED MRNG. COULD BE A DECENT WARMUP AHD OF NXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM DURING MID WEEK WITH VERY WM 850 TEMPS. THE NXT SYSTEM THEN MOVES INTO THE WRN US ON THURSDAY...WITH LAST NIGHTS MRF VALID THURSDAY EVENING SHOWS CENTER OF TROF SLIGHTLY FURTHER W THAN PREVIOUS RUN. BUT A HUGE DIFFERENCE EXISTS IN HOW MUCH MORE ENERGY THE NEW MRF PUTS INTO THE NRN STREAM OVER THE PAC NW THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. IF THIS TREND CONTS...NRN STREAM WL LIKELY REALLY TAKE OVER ON FRIDAY PRODUCING SOME CD FRONTAL -SHSN...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE... TYPICAL LA NINA. SFC INVERTED TROF TOO FAR W AND N TO AFFECT CWA ON THURSDAY. .FSD...NONE FUHS sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 930 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2000 MAIN PRBLM TDAY IS HOW FAST...OR IF AT ALL...THE LOW CLDS WL CLEAR OUT OF CWA. CONFIDENT THAT THE FOG WL EVENTUALLY LIFT...WITH BETTER VSBY TO THE WEST...AND SFC WINDS FM THE NNW. HOWEVER...LOW CLDS IN THE RANGE OF 1000-2000 FT REALLY EXPAND ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE WY AND MT BORDERS. WITH 925 MB WINDS CRNTLY FM THE N AND NNW...AND THE RUC PROGS A WRLY COMPONENT OF THIS WIND TO CONT THRU THE DAY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LLVL DRY AIR IN MN...BUT WITH THE 925 MB NOT FM THE NE...THIS MAY HAVE TROUBLE BACKING INTO CWA. THEREFORE...WL CONT TO MONITOR THE CLD COVER...WHICH COULD HAVE A BEARING ON TEMPS. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS DO LOOK PRETTY GOOD EVEN IF WE KEEP THE CLDS IN A LITTLE LONGER. .FSD...NONE sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 800 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2000 CYCLOGENESIS OFF ERN CAROLINA/VIRGINIA MEANS ANOTHER WINTER STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. CRNTLY: SFC LOW DVLPG ALG THE ERN SHORES OF NC/VA WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE PRS FALLS. STG S/W ROTATING ARD BASE OF CLOSED H5 LOW INTO SAME VCNTY OF SFC LOW WITH STG BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE WL CONT DECENT DVLPMNT. CONTD EXPANSION OF COLD CLD HGTS AND LTGNG DETECTION IS INDICTATIVE OF THIS DVLPMNT TAKING PLACE AND SEE NO REASON NOT TO CONT AS ANOTHER STG S/W ROTATES INTO THIS SFC SYSTEM ARD 12Z AS SFC LOW IS MVG ACRS SNE. ATTM...ETA HNDLG STGR DVLPMNT WELL AND GIVEN ABV FACTORS WUD LEAN TWRD WETTER (SNOWIER) SOLN. THE MM5 AND RUC SHWS THE CRNT PCPN MAX OCCURING ACRS DELMARVA/TIDEWATER WITH STG H85 WAA AND COASTAL FNT BUT TOWARD 12Z AS SFC LOW MVS TOWARD NYC...ANOTHER MAXIMUM DVLPS ON WNW SIDE IN AREA OF STG DFRNTL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH DECENT ULVL DIFFLUENCE. CLOSER TRACK TO SRN VT AND STG H85 WAA CUD BRG ABT SOME MIX WITH SLEET IN SRN VT AND MAY ADD TO CRNT FCST. GIVEN CRNT SCENARIO AND FVRBL ULVL PTRN TO DVLP FOR NEW ENGLAND...I WUD LEAN TOWARD HIER AMTS BUT THE TRACK OF HVST PCPN (SNOW) WL BE NARROW. CRNT MM5 TRACK WUD FVR THIS HIER ANTS ACRS CHMPL VLY AND CENT/SRN GRN MTNS BUT ANY CHG W OR E WL ALTER. ELSEWHERE...SPEED OF SYSTEM SHLD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SNOWS OF 8-12 INCHES BUT STL APPRCHG WRNG CRITERIA. STL UNCERTAINTY ON THE HVST BAND...SO WIDE SNOW ACCUM RANGES NEEDED. MEANWHILE...WITH ETA LOOKING BETTER AND QUICKER WL BUMP UP FIRST PD SNOW AMTS FOR MOST ZONES AND LEAVE TOTALS ALONE ATTM WORKZONES AVBL ARD 9 PM. CLIMO AT KBTV...(CONT'D FM LAST NGT/S AFD) DAILY AVERAGE DEPARTURE JANUARY 01-12TH 33.7 + 16.4 JANUARY 13-30TH 6.9 - 9.3 JANUARY 01-30TH 17.8 + 1.5 COLDEST MAX 01/01-01/12...34 DEGREES WARMEST MAX 01/13-01/30...31 DEGREES COLDEST MIN 01/01-01/12...12 DEGREES WARMEST MIN 01/13-01/30...14 DEGREES COLDEST MIN 01/13-01/30...14 DEGREES "BELOW ZERO" # DAYS WITH MIN TEMP AOB ZERO...12 (LAST TIME FEB '94). .BTV...WNTR STM WRNG NYZ028>031-034-025-VTZ001>012 OVRNGT THRU MON. WNTR WX ADV NYZ026-027 OVRNGT THRU MON. SLW vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1010 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2000 00Z SFC CHART SHOWING NUMEROUS TROFFS UPSTREAM MVG SE IN CYCLONIC FLOW. 8H HAND ANALYZED CHART SHOWING BIG 8H TROFF MVG ACROSS OH/TN VALLEY. 00Z RUC AND 18Z MESOETA SHOWING ONE VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ONE TO MOVE IN BTWN 09 AND 12Z. WILL ISSUE UPDATE SHORTLY TO REMOVE BECOMING WORDS AND TWEAK POPS HERE AND THERE ACCORDING TO LATEST TRENDS. WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO SIMPLIFY THE ZONE BREAK UP. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC OR LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES...THINKING LESS THAN 1 INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT. .JKL...NONE. HALL ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 215 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2000 FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER WINTER LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE OZARKS TODAY WITH PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BRIEF BURST OF LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING ENDED QUICKLY WITH FLURRIES NOW SCARCE ALSO. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEARING OVER OKLAHOMA/SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH A SECOND AREA IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI. FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS H5 GYRE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. EXTENDED VORTICITY LOBES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OZARKS THROUGH TUESDAY ...BUT ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN LINE WITH THE SYSTEM SHOWN OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING: ALL HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...WHICH WILL LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS CLOUD COVER: WILL IT REMAIN BROKEN-OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS? ETA/RUC 850/925 MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW DRYING...BUT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS AT OR ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THOUGHT ABOUT KEEPING A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY TONIGHT/MONDAY...BUT CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED MORE THAN I EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL RETAIN THE DECREASING CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN THE ZONES. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT. 40 DEGREE HIGHS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY ON MONDAY SINCE THE SUN HAS NOT HAD A CHANCE TO WORK ON ANY OF THE FRESH SNOW COVER. WILL STAY WITH CURRENT ZONE HIGHS FOR MONDAY...WHICH ARE BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES. ONCE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SKIRTS BY TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A MODERATING PATTERN UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER STRONG WAVE MOVES INTO THE OZARKS. PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE: SGF BB 016/036 025/040 022 08---1 JLN BB 017/037 027/041 022 08---1 UNO BB 018/035 026/040 021 08---1 VIH BB 015/033 022 038 019 08---- .SGF...NONE. SUTTON mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 900 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2000 SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AS WELL. NEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE 18Z MESO ETA AND RUC WOULD IMPLY THAT SNOW CONTINUES TO LINGER WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN DUE TO A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER OHIO. MODELS ALSO SEEM TO AGREE THAT ONCE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...PCPM SHOULD END VERY RAPIDLY FORM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...AM PLANNING ON ENDING THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WHICH WERE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF A CHAMBERSBURG...UNV LINE (BASICALLY THE OLD PIT CWA). FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO KEEP WARNINGS GOING OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR PICTURE. WILL HAVE TO UPGRADE ADVISORY TO WARNING FOR TIOGA COUNTY AND NORTHERN CLINTON COUNTY AS 3-5 INCH TOTALS ALREADY FALLEN...AND ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW LEFT TO FALL. CALLS TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNITES INDICATE AN ALL SNOW EVENT IS IN PROGRESS...SO WILL DROP MENTION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE OVRENIGHT PACKAGE AS "WARMEST" TIME OF THE STORM IS UPON US NOW. .CTP...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FOR THE SUSQ VALLEY WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PAZ012 AND PAZ037. JUNG pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 310 AM EST MON JAN 31 2000 FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS COMPLICATED THROUGH MONDAY DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. PROBLEM REMAINS TRYING TO DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING NICE BAND OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW FROM EASTERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL VERMONT... WHICH LINES UP NICELY WITH THE 850-700 BAROCLINIC ZONE FORECAST BY THE 03 UTC RUC MODEL. AS PER PREVIOUS SPC/NCEP DISCUSSIONS...THE RUC HAS BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB IN PLACING THE SURFACE LOW CENTER FARTHER WEST THAN ITS ETA COUNTERPART. THIS DISPLACES THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FARTHER WEST...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ARE STILL RIPE FOR LOW-END WARNING CATEGORY SNOWFALL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE DRY SLOT CURLING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE IR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRETTY WELL-DEFINED COMMA HEAD EAST OF KALB WHICH CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE. THE EASTERN HALF OF THIS COMMA FEATURE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE STRONGEST 88D RETURNS...AND SHOULD TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT INTO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THIS OUGHT TO PROVIDE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT TO RECEIVE 6-9 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT LEAVES SOME QUESTION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AS TO WHETHER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OR THE DRY SLOT WILL DOMINATE LATER THIS MORNING. IT WOULD BE FOOLISH TO YANK DOWN THE WARNING FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALREADY OCCURRING...SO WILL HAVE TO REMAIN OPTIMISTIC THAT THE SNOW DOESN'T SHUT OFF AT LEAST UNTIL MID- MORNING. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE REGION FOR THIS EVENING...HAVE CUT BACK THE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY 2-3 INCHES. HAVE KEPT ALL HEADLINES FOR THE WHOLE DAY...AND SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS CAN TAKE DOWN THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES PIECEMEAL LATER TODAY. MOIST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULDN'T FALL VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT. THEN THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WESTERN ONTARIO APPROACHES THE REGION FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREAS WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...FALLING LOW- LEVEL THICKNESSES INDICATE MODEST COLD ADVECTION AND CANNOT BELIEVE THE MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING ON TUESDAY. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 20S ALL ZONES. 3 TO 5 DAY...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION INDICATED BY 00 UTC AVN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY ADVECTS IN...SO HAVE FOLLOWED DAY SHIFT FORECAST OF MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. THIS TRENDS NICELY WITH BENIGN FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WORK ZONES OUT...ONLY CHANGES MAY BE TO TWEAK TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE 1ST PERIOD. WILL HOLD FINAL ZONES UNTIL ABOUT 330 AM. ST. JEAN .BTV...WINTER STORM WARNING NYZ028>031-034-025-VTZ001>012 TODAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NYZ026-027 TODAY. vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 245 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2000 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDC SFC LOW INVOF FAY...GENLY IN LINE/SLIGHTLY W OF 12Z RUC MODEL. TEMPS RISING TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NE N.C. UPR 30S HAMPTON ROADS AND GENLY ABV FREEZING E OF AN AVC-PTB-RIC-TAPPAHANNOCK LINE. RECEIVING SOME REPORTS OF ICE ACCRETION ON TREES AND POWER LINES AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES NORTH OF RICHMOND. ICE ACCRETION LIKELY APPCHG OR EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA IN THE VA PIEDMONT. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOWING FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP ALREADY BEGINNING TO EXIT FA...SECOND BATCH ALG VA/N.C. BORDER POISED TO SWEEP ACROSS FA NEXT SVRL HRS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WELL DEFINED INDC AN ABRUPT CUTOFF TO PRECIP. THIS ALSO INDC IN MODEL T-SXNS AS WELL. MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WI 18Z POSN OF SFC LOW. AVN/NGM HV SFC LOW IN N-CNTRL S.C. THE ETA APPEARS TO HV THE BEST HANDLING OF SFC LOW... WI AN 18Z POSN NR ILM...THOUGH THIS IS STILL 90 NM SE OF CURRENT POSN. BOTTOM LINE THE MODELS ARE SLOW WI THIS FTR. THUS AM LEANING TWD ENDING PRECIP ACROSS THE FA AROUND 22Z IN THE FAR SW TO AROUND 02Z IN THE NE SXNS OF THE FA...SVRL HRS FASTER THAN TIMING OF ETA. MAIN FCST PROBLEM IS IN THE FIRST PERIOD WI REFINEMENT OF PRECIP TYPE. FCST PARTIAL THICKNESS SUPPORT A SHAPR R/ZR/S LINE AT THE END OF THE PRECIP...THEREFORE LOOKING AT PRECIP ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW GENLY W OF A FVX-LKU LINE. RECIEVED REPORTS OF THUNDER FROM COORD WI RAH...BANDED NATURE TO PRECIP IN FAVORABLE REGION NORTH OF SFC LOW/WARM FRONT IS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIP. WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL CONTINUE WI WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE SAME ZONE GROUPINGS AS PREVIOUS AND ADD A BUFFER ZONE FOR WINTER WX ADVY. THIS ALL FOR THE EVENING TIMEFRAME. BEYOND THIS EVENING...THE FCST SIMPLIFIES AND GENLY LOOKING AT GOOD MIXING ON MON. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO WINDS ON MON WILL AID IN RAISING TEMPS TO FAN VALUES...IE LOWER-MID 40S ACROSS THE FA. CWF...SMALL CRAFT ADVY TONIGHT CST AND BAY/CST MON. .AKQ...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS EVENING...CENTRAL VA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS EVENING...INTERIOR NORTHERN NECK...INTERIOR MIDDLE PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN VA ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVY...ATLC COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND BAY/CSTL WTRS MON. COBB va DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1015 AM CST MON JAN 31 2000 A FEW FORECAST PROBLEMS HAVE ARISEN OVERNIGHT WITH FORMATION OF SURFACE LOW 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE OVER THE GULF. CIRCULATION OF THIS LOW IS GIVING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA A NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND WHILE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS ARE SEEING A NORTHEASTERLY WIND AT THIS TIME. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS COASTAL LOW MOVING NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF PORT ISABEL. THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST. LOCAL WORKSTATION ETA MODEL SHOWS THE LOW ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRO AT THE SAME 00Z TIME TONIGHT. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE WORKSTATION ETA AND THE LATEST RUC SHOW COASTAL ZONES SHOULD REMAIN IN A NORTH AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WILL MAKE THIS WIND CHANGE IN THE ZONES. TOUGH CALL ON TEMPS BUT AT LEAST THEY ARE IN THE 50S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS. THE NW WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST BELOW MOS ONCE AGAIN. WILL LOWER POPS OUT WEST AND JUST MENTION SOME SPRINKLES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS OF 295K SURFACE SHOWS SOME DECENT LIFTING TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS SURFACE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO SHORE. MARINE...HAVE ADDED WORDING FOR SCEC IN THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WITH SEAS AT 5 TO 6 FEET. THE WIND FORECAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS COASTAL LOW. 69 .BRO...NONE. tx SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 330 AM CST MON JAN 31 2000 EXIT OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT ALL CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. TODAY..06Z ETA MAY BE JUST A BIT OVERDONE ON LOW CLOUD EXTENT BUT ITS 30AGL CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ALONG WITH THE RUC 60AGL PICK ON THE TREND WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ALONG WESTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. NORTHERN AREAS HAVE PATCHY FOG (ODX) WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED SKY FORECAST FOR CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP IN THE WARMUP TODAY. H85 TEMPERATURES AT 00Z/MONDAY WERE MUCH COLDER THAN FORECAST (MINUS 10 AT KLNX). THUS ONLY AN AVERAGE OF 25 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY HIGHS DESPITE FULL SUN. WARMING FOR TODAY...BUT SNOWFALL FROM RECENT DAYS HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD. MANY AREAS HAVE A SOLID 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. WILL UNDER HIGHS FROM GUIDANCE NUMBERS. DESPITE LESS SNOW IN EASTERN COUNTIES...FETCH OF WEST/NW FLOW OVER SNOWFIELD WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THERE AS WELL A FEW DEGREES. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...I AM BY FAR THE MOST PESSIMISTIC REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. 00Z ETA 30AGL CONDENSATION PRESS. DEFICIT AT 06Z COULD NOT TRACE THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH OF MINNESOTA ANY BETTER. THIS TREND IS FORECAST INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT BEHIND ADVANCING FRONT. WITH MELTING TODAY...LOW LEVEL RELH SHOULD BE HIGH AND ENOUGH TO FORM LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOST AREAS TONIGHT. THIS IS BORN OUT WELL ON 06Z ETA/00Z ETA AND SUGGEST IN AVN/NGM BOUNDARY LAYER RELH PROGS. THIS HAVE ANTICIPATED LOWS JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER...AND FWC LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME BUT WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARD BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY IN THE ZONES. EXTENDED...STILL WAITING ON THE MRF FOR FINAL DECISIONS REGARDING FRIDAY. TOW DAYS AGO IT HAD A MAJOR COLORADO CLOSED LOW SNOWSTORM FOR FRIDAY. YESTERDAY IT HAD A QUICK MOVING OPEN WAVE AND ABOUT TWO INCHES OF SNOW FORECAST. BELIEVE IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO SEE WHAT TURNS UP THIS TIME AND COMPARE WITH OTHER MODELS. A WARMUP LOOKS ON TARGET FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. I HAVE TEMPERED WARM UP JUST SLIGHTLY (FEW DEGREES) FOR WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL BE THE FIRST MAIN SNOW MELT DAY. .GID...NONE. MORITZ ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 215 AM CST MON JAN 31 2000 ...LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND TEMPS WILL BE THE CHALLENGE... ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. PATTERN INCLUDES A SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES...AND TROFING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE...FROM WASHINGTON TO UTAH. BY 00Z A LOW FORMS OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND IS FORECAST TO SWING WELL SOUTH OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE FROM LAKE ERIE TO MAIN DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THESE FEATURES INCLUDES A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA BY 00Z TODAY. IR SAT PIX DELINEATE STRATUS/FOG ADVECTING INTO THE AREA ON WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS. 04Z RUC SORT OF HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN THE RH FIELDS AT LOWEST LEVELS...AND DOES NOT EXTEND IT ANY FURTHER NORTH. THIS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE WINDS HAVING MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...AND THEREFORE WEAK COMPRESSIONAL DOWNSLOPE... OVER NORTHERN HALF OF ZONES. GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET FOR FORECAST PERIOD. FOR TODAY...HOW QUICKLY WILL THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF? WIND HAS ALREADY TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST AT LBF. THINK THAT AS WIND TURNS MORE TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND INCREASES SOME WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING A LITTLE...NORTHERN EDGES OF FOG WILL ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY. 06S RUC SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL...WITH MOST OF THE FOG GONE BY 12Z. 06Z ETA APPEARS OFF WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS...EXTENDING FOG UP TO VTN BY 09Z WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. FOLLOWS RUC AT LEAST WITH THE IDEA OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS PUSHING EAST BY 12Z AND ERODING. WEAK WESTERLY/NW FLOW TODAY OFFERS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850...BEST IN SW ZONES. THAT AREA HAS LITTLE SNOW COVER AS WELL...SO WILL HAVE TO SPLIT OFF FOR WARMER TEMPS TODAY. AREAS WITH MORE SNOW MAY BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO WARM UP... BUT NOT BY MUCH. NORTH/NORTHEAST ZONES WILL FEEL AFFECT OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE TEMPS APPEAR TO PICK UP ON THIS AND FEEL GOING FORECAST HANDLES IT WELL. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE OR STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES FOR THE COLD FRONT TO FORM MUCH CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY. SO MAIN EFFECT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEHIND COLD FRONT DEVELOP OVER ALL BUT WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES BY 06Z...BEGINNING IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES AND SPREADING SOUTHWEST. WESTERN ZONES WILL MAINTAIN MORE OF A WEST COMPONENT AT 850...SO DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AT RISK. FWC NOT PICKING UP ON THIS DESPITE HINT OF IT IN NGM RH FIELDS. SHOWS UP PRETTY WELL ON ETA THOUGH. WILL NOT MENTION IN PANHANDLE COUNTIES... AND MAY LEAVE IT OUT OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO GET WARMER AND REMAIN DRYER. WESTERN EXTENT OF COLD FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THAT AREA EITHER. LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS IN COLORADO HEADS SOUTH AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. COLD POOL AT 850 PASSES OVER STATE DURING MORNING HOURS WITH NORTH WINDS TO HELP KEEP A CHILL ON THINGS. THEN THE AFTERNOON MAKES UP FOR IT AS HEIGHTS RISE TO 562-564 OVER FORECAST AREA. LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY THEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW CROSSING WESTERN CANADA. TROF TURNS WIND TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON...BRINGING IN WAA. WAA CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT...REACHES PEAK WEDNESDAY WITH WARMEST TEMPS AGAIN AT 850 OVER SOUTHWEST. LARGE SCALE NVA OVER ENTIRE REGION. EXTENDED...WILL MONITOR FOR UPDATED MRF RUN TO SEE IF ANY CHANGES WILL NEED TO BE MADE. OTHERWISE...SO FAR...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY APPEARS GOOD IN MRF REGARDING NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINNING TO AFFECT AREA THURSDAY LATE. .LBF...NONE. SLM ne