EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 300 AM PST THU JAN 27 2000 THROUGH FRIDAY FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOCAL NIGHT AND MORNING CANYON WINDS. FOR THE WEEKEND...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN THE SHORT-TERM...NGM/ECMWF A LTL SHARPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVR THE PAC NW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PREFERRED OVR THE WKR ETA/AVN. LOCALLY GUSTY NLY/NELY WINDS WL OCCUR THIS MORNING THRU AND BLO PASSES AND CANYONS...BUT BLO ADV LVLS. AS THE PAC NW SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...NELY SFC GRADIENTS AND ASSOCD WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF...THEN REBUILD LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ON TO THE E INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. OFSHR WINDS FOR FRI MORNING SHOULD BE A LTL STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL BLO ADV LVLS. WK CSTL EDDY EVIDENT IN SFC OBS THIS MORNING AND WELL CAPTURED BY BOTH THE RUC AND COAMPS. HOWEVER...WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWING LTL IN THE WAY OF A MARINE INVERSION AS A RESULT OF COOLING ALF THE PAST 24 HOURS.. ANY CSTL STRATUS SHOULD BE AT A MINIMUM THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE VLYS. OFSHR GRADIENTS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...SHOULD KP ANY STRATUS TONIGHT OFF THE CST. EXTENDED...NEW AVN/MRF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF ENERGY FM A FAST NRLY ZONAL JET OVR WRN AND CNTRL PAC BEGINNING TO DIVERT INTO THE SRN STREAM TOWARD CA AS A BLOCK DEVELOPS OVR THE CNTRL U.S. NW THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS COULD BRING RAIN/SNOW BACK TO NRN AND CNTRL CA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT PROBABLY ONLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST OF SRN CA. ECMWF/AVN/MRF ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING A WK UPR LOW INTO SRN CA SAT. THIS SHOULD SPREAD MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS ACROSS SW CA...BUT WITH OFSHR LOW LVL GRADIENTS...SUSPECT THAT LOW LVL MSTR AND AND PRECIPITATION WL BE ABSENT...A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT MOST. SAN 000 .SAN...NONE. MARTIN ca SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 338 AM MST THU JAN 27 2000 UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR NEXT TWO DAYS. TDA: LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP/RUC 500MB SHOWED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/OPEN LOW OVER CENTRAL NM AROUND 0830Z/72 THU. CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS SHOWED POORLY ORGANIZED AND FRAGMENTED DEFORMATION CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. ALSO... CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER SOUTHEAST CO. APPEARS NEW DEFORMATION CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS WERE NO BETTER IN SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL CO. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAVE BEEN DECREASING. CALLS IN/OUT OF THE OFFICE ARE MAINLY FLURRIES ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR. AT 0930Z LHX HAD 1 INCH...SPRINGFIELD 3 INCHES...TRACE IN LAMAR AND TRINIDAD...SO FAR. 2-3 INCHES IN ALS. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE COHERENT ON HANDLING OF SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH. RUC VERIFING PRETTY GOOD WITH ETA/NGM SOLUTIONS...WITH AVN A TOUCH TOO FAR NORTH BY 12Z/27 THU...BUT CATCHES UP BY THU AFTERNOON. ONLY DISCONTINUITY IS THE ACTUAL/PREDICT TRACK FROM YESTERDAY...APPEARS IT WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AS SYSTEM PULLS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z/28 FRI. THIS WOULD TAKE THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RECITATION TRACK FURTHER SOUTH OUT OF CO. 700-500MB AND 500-300MB QS DIV SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING PULLING INTO CWFA BETWEEN 12Z-18Z/27 THU WHICH SHOULD PUT THE NAIL IN THE COFFIN ALONG WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH IT. NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS INTO NORTHERN CO BY THU EVENING. RADAR INTENSITIES HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE WE WALKED IN THE DOOR...HOWEVER COVERAGE STILL RUNNING IN THE LIKELY OR CAT RANGES. NOT REALLY EXPECTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...HATE TO PULL HEADLINES WHILE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING...ALBEIT -SHSN OR FLURRIES. THERE SHOULD ONLY BE AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OR LESS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 8AM-9AM. FOR CONTINUITY AND A MORE COHERENT VIEW OF THE STORM... PLAN TO CONTINUE ADVISORY FOR 65/66/67/71/72/73/74/75 UNTIL 8AM AND MENTION TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES. WILL KEEP 77 AND 81 UNTIL NOON TODAY AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TRACK...BUT GIVEN SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS MAY NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. CURRENT MOS TEMPERATURES ARE IN-LINE WITH ZFP SO WILL FOLLOW FOR TDA. TNGT/FRI: SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ROTATING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AROUND LARGE CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. PRETTY COLD AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. -14 TO -16 DEG C 700MB TEMPERATURES TO INVADE CO TNGT/FRI. ETA/AVN PROGGING NORTHWESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW... WHILE NGM FOR SOME REASON GOING WITH AN EAST UPSLOPE FLOW. MOISTURE PRETTY SHALLOW ACROSS CWFA. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROGGED TO BE 6.0- 7.0 DEG C/KM...SO COULDN'T RULE OUT -SHSN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. FWC MOS HAS INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY FOR TNGT/FRI. HAVING HARD TIME BELIEVING THIS SINCE SUCH A DRAMATIC CHANGE. CURRENT ZFP HAS 20 POPS WHICH LOOKS GOOD RIGHT NOW. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EXTENDED(SAT-MON): WILL CONTINUE EFP AS MOST OF THE ENERGY/THINKING HAS GONE INTO THE NEXT 12-36HR FORECAST. .PUB...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8AM TODAY 65/66/67/71/72/73/74/75 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12PM TODAY 77/81. METZE co EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 743 PM EST THU JAN 27 2000 CURRENTLY...THE LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ...BUT THE COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS LED TO BACKING OF THE SURFACE WIND TO NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WERE ALREADY SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN FWCS. LATE AFTERNOON SATELLITE SHOWED THAT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WERE BANKED UP ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THAT STRATOCUMULUS WILL ADVECT ONSHORE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS. THE ACTUAL SURFACE WIND SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME BECOMING ONSHORE DUE TO THE STABLE AIR MASS. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN EXPECT READINGS TO BE NEARLY STEADY OR RISE AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST AND BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MODIFY INLAND. RIGHT NOW...NOT PLANNING TO MAKE ANY CHANGES BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPS IF THEY DO NOT STOP FALLING THIS EVENING. MARINE...18Z MESO ETA INDICATES ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOT WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A BROAD COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS IS RATHER TYPICAL OF THE ETA RETURN FLOW WHEN THERE IS SUCH A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. BUOY WINDS ARE INDEED SHOWING THESE LIGHTER WINDS THOUGH...WITH 41009 AT 10 KNOTS AND 41010 AT 6 KNOTS. FORECAST FOR TOMORROW WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN LEG WHERE THE ETA WAS SHOWING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. .MLB...NONE. LASCODY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 920 PM EST THU JAN 27 2000 IR SAT IMG REVEALING LARGE EXPANSE OF CLDS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF OF MEXICO ADVANCING E AHEAD OF H50 S/W NOW OVR SOUTHERN PLAINS. DECENT VEERING/WAA PATTERN BETWEEN H85 AND H70 ALONG SOUTHERN MISS RIVER VALLEY RAPIDLY SPREADING CLDS THROUGH WEAK RIDGE OVR DEEP S. MESO ETA H50-H30 RH LAYER BEST TO ZERO IN ON THESE CLDS AND BRINGS THEM INTO CWFA TONIGHT. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO ZONES CALLING FOR INCREASING CLDS AS OPPOSED TO MOSTLY CLEAR. NGM MOS GUID HAS NAILED DOWN 00Z TEMPS FOR FAY...ILM AND MYR. ONLY THREE DEGREES WARMER AT FLO. THIS SITS WELL WITH CRNT FCST DESPITE HIGHER CLDS INCREASING. I WILL HOWEVER SPLIT ZONES ONCE MORE TO RAISE LOW TEMPS TO ARND 20 FOR WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES. NO CHANGE TO LIGHT WNDS. I AGREE WHOLEHEARTEDLY WITH THE SECOND PARAGRAPH OF MHX DISCUSSION. IT APPEAR MORE AND MORE WE SHOULD BE ASKING THE QUESTIONS "WILL WE BE RECEIVING FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIP OVR THE WEEKEND? AND..."HOW MUCH?" QPF MEANS LITTLE AT THIS TIME. CWF...00Z RUC RUN IS A BIT INTERESTING WITH 30 KT WNDS DVLPG OVR COASTAL WATERS BY MORN. WILL REMAIN SUSPICIOUS ATTM...BUT RAISE WNDS TO 20 KT FROM SURF CITY TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. 3 TO 4 FT SEAS LOOKS REASONABLE. .ILM...NONE. JFP nc EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1000 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2000 BANDED PCPN MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN THIRD OF FCST AREA ASSTD WITH INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORT WV AND DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILES. RUC SHOWS THIS WAVE QUITE WELL AND ALSO SHOWS A LUL IN MID LEVEL FORCING THIS AFTN. HOWEVER GUID KEEPS DECNET MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS AREA. CURRENT POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES TO THE N LOOKS GOOD AS 1ST BAND OF PCPN WL LKLY DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING MUCH PAST MLB. SECOND...RATHER WEAK...MID LEVEL FEATURE AND INCREASING UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE FROM COUPLED JET WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR PCPN TNT. MDLS IN DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH OF FORCING AND LOCATION OF MID LEVEL WAVE BUT POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF TRENDS MOVE TOWARDS ETA SOLUTION. TNX FOR COORD JAX. MARINE...LARGE GRADIENT IN WNDS SPEEDS N OF INVERTED SFC TROF/WAVE ALONG THE E COAST OF FL. SAUF REPORTING 20 TO 25KT WITH CANAVERAL BUOY LESS THAN 10KT. RUC/MESO-ETA SUGGESTS GRADIENT MAY TEND TO TIGHTEN OVER N WATERS AS INITIAL VORT PULLS OFF TO THE E. CURRENT FCST OF SCEC CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD. .MLB...NONE. BLOTTMAN fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 725 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2000 COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM WITH SPC OUTLOOKING THE FL PH AND SE AL IN DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK THROUGH 12Z. ALSO... OF MORE CONCERN IS WINTER WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALREADY HAVE RECIEIVED ISOLATED SLEET REPORTS FROM COFFEE COUNTY ALABAMA. ETA MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE HANDLED THE SFC SYNOPTIC FEATURES BEST AT 06Z AND ALSO ITS PRECIP AREAS. SO WILL LEAN TWD THAT MODEL. RUC AND ETA MODEL THICKNESS FIELDS FROM 850-700 MB SHOW WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA FROM 09Z TO 15Z. RUC AND ETA MODEL THICKNESS POINT TO PRECIP IN THE FROZEN VARIETY ACROSS OUR NRN AND NERN ZONES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND AREA REPORTS HOWEVER SUPPORT SLEET IN AREAS NOT COVERED BY EITHER RUC OR ETA MODEL FCST OF LOWER THICKNESSES. WILL GO WITH GROUND TRUTH ON THIS ONE...AND INCLUDE POSSIBLE SLEET MENTION IN MOST INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING. TONIGHT AND SAT...BIG FCST QUESTION IS WILL "WEDGE" HOLD IN OVER OUR XTRM NRN GA COUNTIES. WILL LEAN TWD YES AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE MORE S/W ENERGY ROTATE THOUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SO POPS WILL STAY FAIRLY HIGH. AT THE SFC...WARM FRONT NEVER QUITE MAKES A SOLID PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AND LOOKS LIKE OVERRUNNING WITH S/W ENERGY WILL CONT TO AFFECT THE FA. COORD WITH MOB AND ATL AND WILL LIKELY GO WITH WINTER WX ADVSIORY TODAY FOR PORTIONS SW GA. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR OUR NRN TIER OF GA COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF WEDGING HOLDING IN LONGER THAN ETA/NGM MODELS ELUDE TO. EXTENDED: WILL WAIT ON FMR NUMBERS FOR CHANGES. MARINE: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL MARINE ZONES. PRELIM... TLH 051/047 057/049 7765 PFN 054/047 061/051 6666 DHN 048/045 054/047 7776 ABY 043/037 050/045 7776 VLD 050/042 058/047 7766 .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY GENERALLY N OF A LINE FROM FT GAINES TO OCILLA/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING GENERALLY S OF A LINE FROM FT GAINES TO OCILLA. ...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT NORTH OF A LINE FROM FT GAINES TO OCILLA. .FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 60 NM ALL MARINE ZONES. MRV fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1000 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2000 TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THIS TIME THU AT MOST LOCATIONS...SO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS LOOK IN BALLPARK. DRY SELY FLOW AROUND STATIONARY HIGH PRES KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT TO SOUTH. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SLIGHTLY MORE HIGH LEVEL RH INTO SWRN PORTIONS WHICH TIES INTO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. WL ONLY UPDATE SW ZONES FOR NOW. .MSP...NONE KAVINSKY mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 352 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2000 ...FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING -SN AGAIN... AT 09Z SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED IN THE ERN PANHANDLE ALTHOUGH ACTING AS ONLY A WIND SHIFT FOR NOW. VSBY IN THE SNOW AREA ARE MAINLY IN THE 2- 5 MILE RANGE AND ACCUMULATING VERY SLOWLY. CALLS AROUND THE CWA YIELD 1 TO 2 INCHES MOST PLACES SINCE 6AM YDAY. ENHANCEMENT ON IR PICS DUE TO LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE LOCATED OVER SRN NEBR BETWEEN LBF AND LXN OR SO. RUC HAS THIS CONTINUING THRU THE MORNING BUT LIKELY WEAKENING OVER TIME...WITH POSSIBLY AN ADDITINAL ARE DEVELOPING IN NERN CWA BY LATE MORNING. TOUGH FCST THIS PERIOD AS UPPER SHEAR AXIS HANGS OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE GENERAL FEATURES SIMILAR BUT LIKE THE ETA/AVN SOLUTION OF DROPPING THE UPPER CIRCULATION FURTHER S IN TIME. AVN SFC FEATURES THO ARE TOO FAST BASED ON ANALYSIS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SMALL DIURNAL RANGE AND WILL BASED FCST ON THIS. AREA OF PRECIP THRU MUCH OF THE DAY WON/T LIKELY MOVE MUCH AS LOW DEVELOPS CUTS OFF FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER NRN KS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SFC IN THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...FROM LBF EWD BUT SLIDING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. AS WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED UP AND AROUND THE UPPER LOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN DEVELOPS IN THE NERN PART OF CWA SAT AT WHICH TIME THE LOWS CUTS OFF. HARD TO FIND ANY INDICATIONS OF MESOSCALE FORCING POSSIBILITIES AFTER TODAY (AS ONE WOULD EXPECT)...WITH BROAD LIFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. BEST 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES STAY W AND EVENTUALLY S OF CWA AND WITH WEAKLY POS EPV INDICATED ON TIME SECTIONS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SEEMS LIMITED. SO GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES ADDITIONAL TODAY... MAINLY FROM LBF-VTN EWD WITH LIKELY ONLY 1 INCH ON THE WRN EDGE OF THAT. AS UPPER JET MAX STREAMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN TIME...LOW LEVEL ADVECTION WILL PICK UP WELL S AND E OF THE CWA AND LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EWD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MAIN EXTENDED MODELS AGREE FOR THE MOST PART ON UPPER FEATURES WHICH JIVES WITH GOING FCST...SO WILL LEAVE AS IS. .LBF...NONE. JWS ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC ISSUED BY NWS COLUMBIA SC 1000 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2000 SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD AND DRY HI PRES AT SFC BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS. VIS SHOWS MID LEVEL CLDS BLANKETING THE AREA. RUC KEEPS HIGH MID LEVEL RH THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT FCST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND WILL LET STAND PRETTY MUCH AS IS. .GSP...WINTER STORM WATCH NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065- SCZ001>007-010>012-047-GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. CAMMARATA sc SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 845 PM CST THU JAN 27 2000 RAINS HAVE ENDED. DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS ARE KEEPING THE WRAP AROUND CLOUD MASS AWAY FROM THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SUBSIDENT FLOW BEHIND THE LOW SYSTEM IS CREATING GAPS IN THE CLOUD COVER. CURRENT RUC INDICATES LOWER BOUNDARY R.H. OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S BY MIDNIGHT. WILL LOWER SOME TEMPS 1 CATEGORY. WINDS STILL GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH. GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED 15 MPH WINDS. SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES HERE. 02/03/DC tx NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR 230 PM PST FRI JAN 28 2000 LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE BASIN AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED THIS EVENING AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER SE WASHINGTON...ACCORDING TO THE RUC MODEL. EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD IN THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MOST PLACES DOWN TO SINGLE DIGITS. LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AREAL EXTENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ON SUNDAY. 12Z RUNS DIFFER ON POSITION OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE AND 850MB. ETA IS SLOWEST AND IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW. OVERALL EFFECT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN CENTRAL OREGON. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD A GHOST PERIOD TO THE EXTENDED. MODELS DO NOT SHOW STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE SO PRECIPIATION WILL FALL AS SNOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR CONTINUED THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW. SMITH PDT 0001 ALW 0001 PSC 0001 YKM 0001 .KPDT...WSR-88D...VCP 32/CSR 21...DOWN FOR PREVENTATIVE MAINTENANCE. .KPDT...NONE. or