AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 835 PM MST TUE JAN 25 2000 UPDATED THE FORECASTS FOR MINOR WORDING CHANGES...AND ALSO TO REMOVE FOG FROM FORECASTS. LATEST RUC INDICATES THAT DEWPOINTS WILL BE TOO LOW FOR FOG FORMATION. BESIDES...ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL INHIBIT RADIATIVE COOLING. FLURRIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO...BUT BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. .GLD...NONE MENTZER ks SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL LOUISIANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 940 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2000 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR NEAR ABI...DFW...PRX...FSM. LATEST RUC SHOW LEADING EDGE WASHING OUT WITH JUST N WINDS INFILTRATING THE CWA BY NOON...WHICH IS JUST WHAT THE ZONES HAVE IT WORDED. LATEST VIS SAT AND SFC OBS SHOW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER E TX...WITH A FEW WHIPS OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY BE A TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA. IF MID/HIGH LEVEL DECK PERSISTS...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STAY NEAR 50 FOR THESE ZONES. BELIEVE THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AND TEMPS MAY GO A BIT ABOVE 50. WILL WORD THESE ZONES 50-55. OTHER THAN THAT NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED. 8 .LCH...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR INLAND SE TX/CENT LA... LA...LAZ027>033 TX...TXZ180>182-201 UPDATED NUMBERS... LCH 56/31/46/35 0000 LFT 54/31/45/35 0000 AEX 52/22/43/30 0000 BPT 59/32/47/37 0000 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1040 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2000 APX 88D SHOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER... WESTERN WHITEFISH BAY AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE CURRENT WIND DIRECTION IS GENERALLY NORTH OVER EAST UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST LOWER. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. RUC MODEL DATA AND SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS TO REMAIN AROUND 4300 FEET OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EAST UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 950 MB WILL BE 340-010 WITH 850 TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -16C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. APX 88D CURRENTLY SHOWING LAKE EFFECT BANDS NOW TURNING MORE TO A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION AS COMPARED TO THE SLIGHT NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION THAT WAS EVIDENT AROUND 00Z. THE APX 88D SHOWS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS STILL AFFECTING AREAS AROUND MANISTEE AND EMPIRE WITH LATEST SURFACE REPORTS SHOWING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 2 MILES OR LESS IN TVC AND MBL. THE APX 88D CURRENTLY SHOWS THE BEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TO BE OVER GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...IN WHICH THE NORTH FLOW IS BEING FORCED DOWN THE BAY HELPING TO INTENSIFY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER GRAND TRAVERSE AND WEXFORD COUNTIES. WITH WINDS STAYING GENERALLY NORTH TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT... AND WITH 850 TEMPERATURES TO -16C...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELTS OVERNIGHT. RUC MODEL DATA SHOWS 850/700 MB LAYER DRYING TO UNDER 50 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH THE 1000/850 MB LAYER REMAINING AROUND 70 PERCENT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING GOING FOR THE THREE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER GRAND TRAVERSE AND CADILLAC AREAS. WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SNOWFALL OVER NORTHEAST LOWER...AS WINDS TRY AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. APX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...OVERNIGHT...MIZ020-025-031. SWR mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 925 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2000 ...UPDATE TO DIMINISH POP /SNOW AMOUNTS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT... WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES AS IS SINCE LATEST REPORT INDICATE 7 TO 8 INCHES HAS FALLEN THERE. OTHERWISE...STRONG EAST COAST LOW HAS CREATED THE TYPICAL NORTH WIND FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE SURFACE THROUGH 500 MB. MODEL DATA INDICATES WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STAY FAIRLY STRONG (OVER 15 TO 25 KTS) THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SATELLITE AND SFC OBS SHOW TWO PRIMARY SNOW BANDS. FIRST IS OVER EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND IT HAS SEVERAL WAVES ON IT. THE SECOND SEEMS TO BE A RESULT OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY. WITH THE NORTH WIND... IT IS AIMED AT GRR THROUGH RQB. MSAS DATA SHOWS DIVERGENCE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR PART OF LOWER MI WHILE CONVERGENCE INCREASES NEAR LK MI... ESP WEST OF TVC AND BEH. RUC SHOWS TREND OF DRYING OVER THE INTERIOR AND HOLDING MOISTURE OVER THE LAKE IN A WAY THAT IS SIMILAR TO THE RUC FORECAST. ALL OF THIS MEANS SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT OVER MOST OF CWA EAST OF US-131. WEST OF THERE IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLDY WITH FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE EXTREME WESTERN PARTS OF MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO GET THE WEST EDGE OF THE BANDS OVER LK MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT... DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PROBLEM IN VAN BUREN OVERNIGHT. THEY DID GET A QUICK INCH OR TWO THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY AS THAT MESO SCALE WAVE BRIEFLY PUSHED PART OF THE BAND ONSHORE. OVERNIGHT... EXPECT MAIN BAND TO BE WEST OF VAN BUREN /ALLEGAN / OTTAWA OR MUSKEGON. SO WILL TONE THE WORDING DOWN THOSE AREAS. WILL ADJUST TEMPS DOWN SOME INLAND BUT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND STRONG FORECAST WINDS OVERNIGHT... DO NOT EXPECT GOOD DECOUPLING... SO TEMPS WILL NOT DROP LIKE THEY OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE. .GRR...LES WARNING FOR MASON AND OCEANA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MIZ037-043. mi MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 947 AM PST TUE JAN 25 2000 SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA TODAY AND INTO NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF VERY MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY. FOR MANY AREAS THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SINCE SEPTEMBER. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DISCUSSION...MOISTURE PLUME LOSING SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BUT STILL TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH FORECAST AREA. DYNAMIC LIFT SO FAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION DUE SIMPLY TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT WHICH HAS PRODUCED 7 INCHES AT ASPENDELL IN LEE OF SIERRA AND 1.5 TO 3 INCHES IN SPRING MOUNTAINS; SNOW LEVELS REMAIN NEAR 8000 FEET. PLUME HAS SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THAT WE ARE CANCELLING THE ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA BUT WILL HOLD ON TO THE ONE FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS. MESO ETA AND RUC MODELS AGREE WITH OTHER LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS MAINTAINING SOME DEGREE OF LAYERED MOISTURE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN 2/3 OF FORECAST AREA WHILE DYNAMIC LIFT PEAKS AROUND 21Z - 03Z THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET LIFT AND ALSO HINT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE MAXIMUM LIFT LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES AS THE TROP FOLD...SUCH AS IT IS...TRANSLATES ACROSS REGION. LAYERED MOISTURE IS DECREASING DURING THAT PERIOD BUT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SOUTHERN NEVADA/CALIFORNIA BY 03Z AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NEUTRALIZES AND BECOMES A GENTLE DOWNGLIDE. WILL HANG ON TO BETTER CHANCES LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA...OF COURSE. POTENTIAL BIG CHANGES ON TAP FOR THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST...IN THE WAY OF MUCH LESS OF A STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST...IF THE NEW AVN IS TO BE BELIEVED. WILL ADDRESS THIS ISSUE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MCQUEEN .LAS...A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR NVZ018-019. SEE THE LATEST RNOSWSLAS FOR DETAILS. nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1032 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2000 THEY SAY GO WESTWARD YOUNG MAN...AND I SHALL. RADAR ECHOES SHOWING HVY SNOW BAND PIVOTING WWD INTO CNTRL COUNTIES AS JETSTREAK MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN PROGGED EVEN BY LATEST RUC. POSITIONS OF SFC AND UPR LOWS WL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST THAN 12Z RUC AS SFC PRES FALLS 6-8 MB ON LI AND THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. SFC-H8 LOWS WL TAKE AN INLAND TRAK BASED ON THIS DATA. SOME CONCERN THAT DRY SLOT OVR JERSEY WL HELP TO LIMIT SNOW TOTALS IN CATSKILLS AND POCS...BUT LATEST KDIX SHOWING SNOW FILLING IN AGAIN. POSN AND HT FALLS OF UPR FEATURES WL FAVOR THE HVY SNOW TO DO THE PIVOT OVER CNTRL NY AND THEN LIFT BACK EWD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SO WL RAISE SNOW TOTALS SVRL INCHES ESPLY IN THE HILLIER TERRAIN OF CATS. WL UPGRADE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES WWD FOR WARNING. DON'T THINK THE WRN FRINGES WL SEE MUCH OF THIS AT ALL...SO WL LV OUT OF ADVSRYS. 10-15" EASY OVR ERN MTNS...GOING 6-12 SUSQ RGN...LESSER WEST. WHOLE PACKAGE OF ZONES...STATEMENTS VRY SOON. .BGM...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT NYZ036>037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043>044-047>048 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT NYZ009-017>018-023>025-055 BREWSTER ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 950 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2000 BASED ON BEST PRES FALLS INVOF KMVY AND LARGE SEGMENT OF RADAR ECHOES IN EXCESS OF 25 DBZ ACRS SE DIST...WL THEREFORE INCR INTMT SNFLS TO MAKE UPR END OF PREV FCST LWR END...WL ALSO INCR W DIST BUT TO LESSER DEG. LATEST RUC STILL HOLDS SFC LOW CLOSE TO CST WITH WRMFNT ROTATING WI 100 MI OF KACK. STG LOW LVL SPEED SHEAR EVIDENT ON KOKX SOUNDING AT 12Z...THINK WND INCR ON ERYR PACKAGE COVERING SITUATION. MCKINLEY/KDL .ALY...NY ERN...WINTER STORM WRNG TIL MIDN ZONES 32>33 38>43 47>54 58>61 63>66 VT EXTRM SRN...WINTER STORM WRNG TIL MIDN ZONES 13>14 MA EXTRM WRN...WINTER STORM WRNG TIL MIDN ZONE 1 CT NW...WINTER STORM WRNG TIL MIDN ZONE 1 ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 915 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2000 THE LATEST RUC APPEARS MORE THREATENING WITH DECENT PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. RUC TIME-HEIGHTS ALSO SHOW LOWER LEVELS BECOMING MOIST TOWARD 09Z. OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME SNOW IN PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME PLAN TO CHANGE THE SNOW FLURRIES FORECAST TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ONLY OTHER CHANGE PLANNED IS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN NORTH PIEDMONT. .CAE...NONE. RJL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 917 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2000 LO PRES IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NE THIS AM. ROUGHLY 1-2 INCHES OF WET SLUSHY SNOW IN THE CHS AREA THIS AM...MAYBE A LTL MORE IN FAR INLAND . BACK EDGE OF PCPN HAS CLEARED THE FA AS OF 9 AM. S/S HAS RETURNED TO ALL BUT XTREME NRN ZONES...BUT EXPECT M/SNY SKIES ALL AREAS BEFORE NOON. WL REMOVE ALL PCPN FM ZONES THIS PKG. WINTER WX ADVY IS EXPIRING AND THAT LOOKS JUST FINE. WL GO M/SNY OR BECMG M/SNY FAR N. H85 TEMPS THIS AFT WL RANGE FM -2 TO -4 DEG C NRN ZONES TO 1-2 DEG C SRN ZONES. PLAN ON HIGHS FM MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. WINDS LOOK OK. CWF...BOTH RUC/MESOETA INDICATE NW FLOW DIMINISHING GRADUALLY THIS AFTN. LATEST REPORT FROM CHARLESTON PILOT BOAT INDICATES CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY LAYING DOWN. WILL LOWER GALE WARNING FOR S CAROLINA WATERS AND CONTINUE SCA ELSEWHERE EXCEPT CHS HARBOR. NW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SEAS NEAR SHORE TO SUBSIDE SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATER TDA. .CHS... SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY S SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANNAH OUT 20 NM EXCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR. GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND OUT 60 NM. TJR/RVT sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 225 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2000 INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WHICH BROUGHT 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT TODAY HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND DON'T EXPECT SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHWESTERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. AS A MATTER OF FACT...THERE SEEMS TO BE VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH MIGHT AFFECT OUR AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING HOWEVER...RUC AND ETA SUGGEST A TIGHTENING 850-700 MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM NORTHERN VERMONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE ALBANY NY AREA. THIS BENT-BACK WARM FRONT OUGHT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST PRECIP IN THE 00-09 UTC PERIOD. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WARNING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE LOW-END ADVISORY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD SUFFICE. HOWEVER...ALL BETS ARE OFF IF TOO MUCH DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE. WILL HOLD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW RAPIDLY THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN NORTHERN VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER CHATTING WITH WFO PORTLAND...HAVE DECIDED TO ONLY HANG ON TO ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS. COLD ADVECTION TAKES OVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTHWESTERLY. MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 15-25F RANGE... BUT LIKELY TO BE FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER CYCLONE CUTS OFF OVER NY/PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WOBBLES NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE COLD DOME ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AVN/ETA SURFACE WINDS INCREASE DURING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SINKING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. 3 TO 5 DAY...UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY REPLACED BY AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WHICH HOLDS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. UNDER A LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD INITIALLY...BUT WARM BY SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO OUR EAST. ST. JEAN .BTV...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT VT ZONES 01-12 AND NY ZONES 28>31 AND 34-35. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT NY ZONES 26-27. vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 853 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2000 SFC LOW CONTG TO NUDGE SLOWLY NORTH UP THE COAST TAKING DEEPER RH AWAY FROM CNTRL VA THIS EVE. NEXT SYSTEM ASSOCD WITH ACTUAL UPR TROF ALRDY ZIPPING TWD THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS APCHG THE WRN ZONES. LATEST MESO-ETA/RUC INDICATE UPSLOPE TRAJS ON THE INCRS ACROSS THE WEST LATER TNGT AND ESPCLY WED MORN AS BEST 85H CAA KICKS IN BEHIND SFC TROF. OTHER THAN FOR WIND CHILLS...MAIN QUES TNGT IS WITH SNOWFALL AND PTNL TO REACH ADVSRY CRIT WRN RIDGES BY MIDDAY WED. EARLIER COOLING TOPS AND INCSRG RADAR CVRG SUGGESTED BETTER CHCS IN UPSLOPE AREAS EARLY TNGT...BUT NOW APRS THAT SUBSIDENCE BTWN SYSTEMS AND LACK OF GOOD INSTAB ENOUGH TO HOLD BLO FOR NOW. MIDSHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER FOR EARLY WED GIVEN PROGGED LOW LVL RH AGAINST THE WRN SLOPES WED MORN. OTRW COLD THE MAIN STORY WEST AND BLOWING SNOW OUT EAST AS GRAD LOOKS TO STAY UP OVERNGT WITH ARCTIC AIR FILTERING SEWD. PLAN TO EXTEND WIND CHILL ADVSRY INTO THE ROA VLY BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND FCST LOWS OVERNGT. CLOUDS AND CHCY POPS LOOK OK WEST BUT MAY GO A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE MTNS PER SUBSIDENCE/DOWNSLOPE. WILL NEED TO BUMP TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH OR SO WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OTRW LOWS ELSW LOOK ON TRACK. .RNK NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT NCZ01-02-018 VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT VAZ07-09>018-022>024. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT WVZ042>045. JH va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 921 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2000 UPDATING ZONES FOR WIND AND SKY CONDITIONS. LAKE SNOWS STAYING JUST OFFSHORE AS LATEST RUC FCST SNDGS ON BUFKIT SHOW A MUCH SHALLOWER NNE FLOW IN THE 925-850MB LYR THAN 12Z ETA...AND EVEN 18Z MESO ETA DEPICTED. RUC 60 AGL MOIST CONVERG TARGETING SRN CHI AREA WHERE LK SNOW ON 88-D IS HEADED. CLDS WL BRUSH THE NEARSHORE AREAS FM TIME TO TIME...WITH A FEW FLRYS OR BRIEF -SHSN POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE LAKE CNTYS WL SEE P CLDY SKIES. QUICK LOOK AT NEW ETA HAS MORE OF A NNW FLO FM SFC TO 850MB FOR TMRW...BUT 925MB TO 850 MB WNDS GO NNE FOR A TIME AROUND 18Z...SO WL LEAVE CHC FOR -SHSN/FLRYS IN FOR WED BUT LOWER POPS A BIT PER NEW FRH67 SHOWING A REDUCTION IN PCPN THRU 00Z THU FM .10 TO .05 OF AN INCH. GRADIENT HAS EASED A BIT IN WRN CUTS...WITH SFC WNDS DROPPING TO/UNDER 10 MPH UNDER M CLR SKIES. TEMPS TRENDING WELL WITH 12Z FWC MOS 3 HRLY TEMPS AND HNDLD WELL IN GOING FCST. WL ADJUST WND WORDING ACCORDINGLY. $$ 0...0...0.../ REM wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 235 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2000 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS GENERATING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS LOOKED CELLULAR AND SOME BURSTS OF LIGHT SNOW NOTED A TIMES...BUT THIS VERY ISOLATED AND TEMPORAL IN NATURE. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN MINUS 15C AND MINUS 18C. LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN LATEST RUC SHOWED VALUES 70 PERCENT OR ABOVE CONTINUING TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI ZONES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE... EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUN SETS. REST OF PERIOD...FEW CLOUDS ANTICIPATED AS SHOWN BY TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WERE PROBLEMATIC WITH 850 MB READINGS GRADUALLY RISING TO AROUND MINUS 8C BY THURSDAY. FWC AND FAN GUIDANCE RESPONDING WITH INCREASING VALUES. ALL MODELS INDICATED SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL RESULT IN STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION IN SPITE OF TEMPERATURES WARMING ALOFT. IN ADDITION...TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SLOW DOWN PROGRESSION OF WEST-EAST SYSTEMS...PRECLUDING AS FAST A WARM UP AS PERHAPS THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...WILL GO AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...DUE TO SNOW COVER...NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND STRONG INVERSION. ANTICIPATING GENERALLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TONIGHT...ZERO TO 10 BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...COLDEST READINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN WI ZONES WITH HIGH SITUATED OVER THE AREA AND COLD AIR DRAINAGE INTO VALLEYS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THANKS FOR COORDINATION WITH DLH AND GRB. .LSE...NONE. THOMPSON wi SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 309 AM MST WED JAN 26 2000 MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGES WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF NEXT SYSTEM COMING NEAR CWFA TNGT-THU. AND THE QUESTION OF WILL THEIR BE SIGNIFICANT OR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS? TDA: WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHERN UT/NORTHWEST NM FROM LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NV PER 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. ALSO...VERY LONG SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN TX AND HAS LOCKED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN EXTREME SOUTHERN TX. TEEN SURFACE DEW POINTS STILL COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN CO...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND CENTRAL TX. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATION ON THE POTENTIAL SATURATION OF THE LOWER TROP LEVELS LATER ON TNT/THU...OUTSIDE OF ANY MID-LEVEL WAA PRECIPITATION MOISTENING THE LOW LEVELS...BUT NOT SEE THIS OCCURRING. 07Z NEPHANALYSIS AND CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN 1/2 OF CO. MID-LEVEL WAA CLOUD BAND EXTENDED FROM EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO/WESTERN KS...NOT MUCH FALLING OUT OF THIS YET. NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ABOUT TO HEAD INTO SOUTHERN NV PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ANIMATION. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE LIGHTNING STARTING SHOW UP WITH SYSTEM. COULD BE STRONGER THAN MODELS ARE PREDICTING. LATEST RUC HAS THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST AZ BY 18Z/26. SHORT RANGE MODELS HANDLING THIS SYSTEM PRETTY GOOD FOR TDA BY TAKING IT INTO CENTRAL AZ BY 00Z/27 THU. ETA MAY BE A TOUCH SLOWER THAN AVN/NGM. GOOD CONTINUITY OF MID-LEVEL WINDS TO DECREASE LATER ON TDA WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON OROGRAPHIC INDUCED SHSN IN 58/59/60/61 AND 65/66. AFTER COORDINATING WITH DEN...WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS HERE AND MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORY FOR CONTINUITY. APPEARS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SHIFT A LITTLE SOUTH PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STILL THINK MOS POPS ARE OVERDONE IN THE PLAINS GIVEN THE RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE LOWER TROP. GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN 20 POP IN THE PLAINS. DON'T THINK IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURES IN-LINE WITH MOS...WILL CONTINUE. TNGT/THU: HERE...AND THU AM...IS WHERE THE MOST CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE FORECAST LIES. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVING SOME TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL PROBLEMS ON HANDLING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOLLOWED MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE AVN/NGM SOLUTIONS. WILL PLAY PROGRESSIVE UPPER SYSTEM TO TRACK FROM ABQ-AMA-OKC FOR TNGT-THU. 700MB LOW WILL BE POSITION FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHERN CO...AND SHOULD TAKE OUT THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT PORTION OF THE EQUATION. SHOULD SEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AROUND TAD THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO BY 12Z/27 THU. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...OR FEARED...IT SHOULD TAKE AWHILE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND...OR LOWER LAYERS TO SATURATE...IN THE PLAINS TNGT/THU AM. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...REALLY CAN'T WAIT AROUND FOR THESE THINGS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. NGM APPEARS TO BE SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS TOO FAST. FWC MOS POPS HAVE BLASTED INTO "CATEGORICAL" FOR THE PLAINS TNGT. IF THE SYSTEM TRACK VERIFIES...SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN CO TNGT/THU AM WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BY 18Z/27 THU PER 700-500MB AND 500-300MB QS DIV Q COUPLETS. YOUNKIN/GOREE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TRACK CONCEPTUAL MODELS WOULD TAKE THIS ACROSS SOUTHERN CO INTO SOUTHWEST KS. IT'S ALWAYS PRETTY NARROW. STILL THINKING THIS WILL NOT BE A DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND SPEED. OROGRAPHICS FOR SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS DON'T GET UNDERWAY UNTIL AFTER 06Z/27 THU WITH 700MB WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 350-020 AROUND 20KTS. MID-LEVEL STATIC STABILITIES TNGT PROGGED TO BE 6.0-7.0 DEG C/KM...SO COULDN'T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WHICH COULD RAISE LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS. THU AM...UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BE INTO TX PANHANDLE WITH DEFORMATION CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST CO. POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST-EAST ON THU. COULD BE A FEW LEFT OVER -SHSN FOR THE MOUNTAINS BUT NOTHING MAJOR. MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE STABLE THU AFTERNOON. NOW...FOR THE WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE QUESTION. HOW MUCH SNOW COULD POTENTIALLY FALL FOR SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND CO PLAINS? NGM PRINTING OUT 3-10 INCHES FOR PLAINS TNGT AND HAS SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. HOWEVER...NGM'S BIAS IS OVER DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND SATURATING LOW LEVEL AND BEGINNING PRECIPITATION TOO FAST. AVN PRINTING OUT 1-4 INCHES IN THE PLAINS FOR TNGT/THU AM. COULDN'T RULE OUT ADVISORY TYPE NUMBERS (4-8 INCHES MOUNTAINS AND 3-6 INCHES PLAINS) FOR LATE TNGT/THU AM AND THIS IS CONGRUENT WITH DDC/GLD THINKING. WILL UP THE POPS IN THE PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR TNGT/THU AM. AFTER NUMEROUS COORDINATION CALLS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES/ADVISORIES AND LET ZFP/SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK DO THE TALKING. WILL ALSO NOT ADD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SECOND PERIOD GIVEN THE LACK OF QPF SKILL BEYOND 6-12HRS. DON'T WANT TO LOCK IN DAY SHIFT ON NUMBERS...SINCE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN-LINE WITH MOS. EXTENDED(FRI-SUN): LATEST 60-72HR AVN CONTINUES UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TROUGHS INVADING CO FRI/SAT. COULD BE A BREAK ON SUN. CURRENT EFP LOOKS GOOD. .PUB...SNOW ADVISORY TODAY ZONES 58/59/60/61. METZE co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 833 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2000 MAIN CONCERN OVRNGT IS TEMPS. FIRST WILL "CLEAN UP" WORDING OF EVENING ELEMENTS AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED AND WINDS IN PROCESS OF GOING 10 OR LESS. HAVE LOOKED AT TNGTS UA ESPECIALLY 850 AND SFC TRAJS FOR MRNG. THO SOURCE RGNS DO NOT POINT TO AS LO OVRNGT TEMPS XPECT FCST LOWS ANYWAY AS WINDS NEARLY CALM AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE RIGHT OVR THE ST BY MRNG FOR MAX HEAT LOSS. ONLY PROBLM IS IN THE WESTERN PTNS OF CWA CI MAYBE SPRESDING OVRHD BFR MRNG THO LTST RUC RUN KEEP 30H RH IN NE WITH SRN DIVE. EVEN IF CLOUDS SPREAD OVR THIS AREA OF ST LCL TERRAIN WL ALLOW FOR RPD DROP OF TEMPS ANYWAY. RSSULT WILL BE SLIGHT LWRG OF LOWS IN THIS SWRN CWA ZN AND JUST CLEAN UP OF WORDING IN OTHER ZONE SETS. .DSM...NONE FORSTER ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 240 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2000 IR STLT LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS OVER MOST OF CAE CWA SAVE CSRA. ALSO SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING WEST OF CAE. 06Z RUC RUN HAS MOISTURE AHEAD OF WEAK SHORT WAVE AT H7 BUT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST BY 12Z. 40-50% RH COVERS AREA THROUGH 18Z. PLAN ON MENTIONING MOSTLY CLOUDY CAE AND AREAS TO THE NORTH WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS MORNING. CSRA PROBABLY OK WITHOUT MENTION. THEN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ENTIRE AREA REST OF DAY. GOOD CAA..SO WILL KEEPS HIGHS MID-UPPER 30S. MODELS CLEAR SKIES OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DRY COLD HIGH PRESSURE. LIKE LOWS 15-20 TONIGHT AND WILL TAKE AVERAGE OF FWC-FAN HIGHS THURSDAY. NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FRIDAY IS VERY INTERESTING. AVN-MRF BRING GULF SURFACE LOW EASTWARD WITH LOW THICKNESS VALUES. UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND FILLS AS IT MOVES EAST AND A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS NOT INDICATED AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LARGE AREAS OF A VARIETY OF MIXED WINTER WEATHER. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK AND TIMING..FAVOR CHANCE OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW OR SLEET SATURDAY AND RAIN AND MAYBE SOME FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY AS THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE. AT ANY RATE..WE CAN WATCH SYSTEM AS IT DEVELOPS. PRELIM CCF: CAE BU 036/018 041/022 039 07000 AGS BU 039/017 043/023 042 07000 .CAE...NONE. TTH sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 823 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2000 CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST RUC MDL RUN THROUGH 12Z. THEREFORE...NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. .ABR...NONE MOHR sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1021 AM EST WED JAN 26 2000 LK EFFECT SNOW WRNG CONT FOR BERRIEN...LAPORTE AND STARKE TDA. THE MID-LAKE BAND HAS RETREATED WEST THIS AM AS OFF-SHORE LAND BREEZE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FARTHER WESTWARD. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW WINDS BACKING TO A MORE NWLY DIRECTION AND SO EXPECTING THE BAND TO MOVE EWD BTWN NOW AND EARLY THIS AFTN. ALSO THE MODE SHOULD BECOME MORE MULIT-STRUCTURED GIVEN THE DECREASE IN THE CONVERGENCE. THE 06Z ETA AND THE CURRENT RUC2 ARE NOT SHOWING THE WINDS BACKING SO DON'T BELIEVE THEY HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. AS THE WINDS BACK AND THE SINGLE BAND TRANSITIONS...EXPECT LESSER ACCUMULATIONS COMPARED TO THE SINGLE BAND PARKED OVER THE FAVORED AREAS. ALSO AN H8 THERMAL TROF EAST-WEST IN CTL LWR MI WL SAG SOUTH TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN THE DELTA T VALUES. ALL SAID... THE AREAS IN THE WARNING COULD STILL PICK UP 2 TO 4 INCHES SO WITH RATES OF UP TO 1 INCHE PER HOUR...WL CONT THE WARNING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK SO NO CHGS OTHER THAN SNOW AMTS IN THE WARNING (DECREASING SLIGHTLY FROM 2 TO 5 DOWN TO 2 TO 4). .IWX...LK EFFECT SNOW WRNG TDA...MIZ077..INZ003...INZ012 JLA in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 245 AM EST WED JAN 26 2000 ...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD/SW- TRENDS TODAY... SFC TEMPS AT 08Z ARE HOLDING FAIRLY CLOSE TO NGM 3 HOUR MOS TEMPS WITH WIND AND CLOUDS IN PLACE. COLDEST AIR IS STILL TO OUR NW OVER CNTRL IL WITH 3 ABV REPORTED AT CHAMPAIGN. THIS LINES UP WITH THERMAL TROUGH PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH FA TODAY. ALL THREE MODELS KEEP -16 TO -18C AIR AT 850 MB ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF KY UNTIL 00Z THU. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST TO HOLD OVER MOST OF FA TODAY...FEEL MCLDY SKIES WAY TO GO EXCEPT MAYBE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF FA WHERE PSUNNY MAY SUFFICE. WHILE CURRENT IR PICS DO SHOW SOME BREAKS OCCURING TO OUR WEST AND NW...CU RULE POINTS TOWARDS CLOUDS FILLING IN WITH ANY SUNSHINE. MAY ALSO HAVE TO HANG ONTO FLURRIES OVER MAINLY THE EAST. 06Z RUC MODEL RUN PLACES ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE THROUGH CNTRL KY AT 09Z AND THEN PUSHES IT INTO ERN THIRD OF KY BY 12Z WED. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT RADAR AT PRESS TIME AND MAKE DECISION THEN. WITH CURRENT TEMPS NOT DROPPING OFF AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ...HIGH TEMP WORDING FOR TODAY MAY BE A BIT TRICKY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMP TRENDS OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO AND DECIDE ON WHETHER TO KEEP GENERIC HIGH WORDING OR GO WITH STEADY TEMPS. STILL FEEL TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL OFF AS A FEW BREAKS MOVE IN AND THERMAL TROUGH APPROACHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. THEN MCLR AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HAVE GONE IN BETWEEN COLDER AVN MOS MIN TEMPS AND WARMER NGM MOS AS WIND MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH. ALSO STAYED CLOSER TO COLDER FAN MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AS NGM HAS BEEN TOO WARM OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. DESPITE EXPECTED SUNSHINE...NE FLOW AND A VERY COLD START SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THEIR CURRENT RANGE. .SDF...NONE MARIEN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1047 AM EST MON JAN 25 2000 LATEST WV LOOP AND UPR AIR RUC ANALYSIS CONFIRM BUILDING RDG INTO NRN PLAINS STATES WITH DNVA AND SUBSIDENCE WORKING INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AHD OF RDG. 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS RDG BLDG INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HI CNTRD NORTH OF YQT. NLY FLOW BCMG INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND DIVERGENT OVER WRN HALF OF LAKE AS LES BANDS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...LOWEST VSBY REPORTED IN PAST HR WAS 6 MI. MEANWHILE...LAKE INDUCED TROF AND LONGER FETCH OVR ERN SUPERIOR CONTRIBUTING TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL LES BANDS WITH MOST DOMINANT BANDS ATTM OVR MQT COUNTY...24-28 DBZ MAX. FCST PROBLEMS ON UPDATE WILL BE DETERMINING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS AFT...MAINLY EAST AND THEN TEMPS. 12Z SNDGS UPSTREAM OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT INL AND WPL SHOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DRY AIR ALF CRASHING TOWARD SFC WITH BLDG RDG FM WEST. NOT SURPRISINGLY...ETA AND RUC 12Z FCST SNDGS TRENDING TOWARD LWRG INV HGTS AND WARMING TEMPS FM WEST THIS AFT. MODELS SHOW 850 MB THERMAL TROF PASSING EAST OF LAKE THIS AFT AS INVERSION HGTS LWR FM 3K TO 2KFT FM THE WEST. TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION WL STAY FM -13 TO 14C WEST AND WARM TO -14 TO -16 EAST...LWRG DELTA-T'S TO 16C WEST AND 17-18C EAST. THUS...WL CONTINUE DIMINISHING TREND OF SNOW THIS AFT AS PER PREV FCST. WILL GO A DUSTING WEST TO AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM OVR ERN MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES. WITH ONSHORE NLY FLOW AND CLDS EXPECTED AND ONLY WK 1000-850 MB THCKNS ADVECTION FCST BY MODELS...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY GO UP A 2-3 DEGREES FM PRESENT READINGS. THIS IN LINE WITH CURRENT FCST. .MQT...NONE. VOSS mi