EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 930 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2000 SHRA/TS AHEAD OF FNT HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE LST FEW HOURS. STILL THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BNDRY CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. RECENT LAPS OUTPUT SUGGESTS BEST INCREASE OCCURING...AS IT SHOULD...ACROSS NRN THIRD OF AREA. MESO-ETA/RUC SHOW BEST UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH DEPARTING JET LIFTING OUT WELL N OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH MOST MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTING/REMAINING TO THE N MIGHT BE INCLINED TO LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOOKING CLOSER...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT UNDERWAY AND MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS PCPN BREAKING OUT OVER THE GOMEX WEST OF TBW AND WELL S OF FNTL BNDRY. THIS DEVELOPING MOISTURE FLUX/LOW LEVEL LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT CURRENT FCST POPS. HOWEVER MOST ACTVTY WILL OCCUR WELL AFT MIDNT. MARINE...15 TO 20KT WND AND SCEC CONDITIONS NOT MATERIALIZING OVER N WATERS AS GRADIENT SLACKENS A BIT S OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AFT COORD W/ JAX WILL LOWER SCEC AND FCST A STRAIGHT 15KT. THO NOT EVEN BLOWING AT THAT SPEED ATTM. TNX COORD JAX. .MLB...NONE. BLOTTMAN fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 856 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2000 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA ACROSS ABY...N OF AMG...AND ACROSS SAV NE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE OFF THE NC COAST. LOOKING AT ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS LOOKS LIKE THE RUC IS DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS EVENT. IT IS PLACING THE MAX IN MSTR FLUX CONV WHERE YOU EXPECT IT GIVEN THE PCPN ON THE 88D SCREEN. THIS MAX IN MSTR FLUX CONV IS RIGHT NOW FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM THE NE GULF INTO S GA AND N FL NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR CTY TO GNV TO SGJ. AT MID LVLS...WEAKENING S/W ACROSS THE N CNTRL GULF IS BEGINNING TO MOV INTO THE N FL AND S GA AREA WITH MOST PCPN AND TSTMS ATTM FORCED BY THIS FEATURE. A SECOND STRONGER S/W OVR THE MID WEST HAS NOW DROPPED SOUTH INTO OK AND SO IT IS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH 12Z MODEL PROGS. AS THIS SECOND S/W CONTINUES ITS SE PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT...UPR LVL LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH SFC FRONT GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. JUDGING PER LATEST MESO AND RUC...THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE FL/GA STATE LINE AND OFF THE GA COASTAL WATERS BEFORE SUNRISE. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MAX IN MSTR FLUX CONV DROPPING SOUTH ALSO AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SO WE SHOULD SEE PCPN CONTINUING TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AND SPREADING SOUTH OF GNV AND SGJ AS EXPECTED FROM PREV PACKAGE. FRONT WILL NOT EXIT CWA UNTIL THE AFTN SO TIMING IN CURRENT PACKAGE SEEMS REASONABLE ATTM. PCPN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...PARTICULARLY IN N FL...WITH GENERAL STORMS CONTINUING AS GOOD DIFF POS VORT ADV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF SECOND UPR LVL S/W. 00Z SDNG SHOWED SMALL CAPES AND NOT MUCH WRT LOW LVL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...IT SHOWED PW IN THE 1.3 RANGE FROM 0.6 INCHES AT 12Z. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS RAINFALL IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF SOME PEA SIZE HAIL ACROSS THE AREA BUT OTHER THAN THAT...AND LIGHTNING...NOT MUCH MORE THREAT IN TERMS OF SVR WX DVLPG. SO HAVING SAID ALL OF THAT...ZFP LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. CWF...I WILL ADJUST FIRST PD WND AND SEAS DOWN A BIT. WITH FRONT DROPPING TONIGHT I WILL TAKE SCEC OUT AND THEN SHOW CONDITIONS WORSENING MONDAY AFTN INTO SCA CONDITIONS AS IN THE CURRENT PACKAGE. .JAX... GA...NONE. FL...NONE. SANTOS fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1015 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2000 IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING GOOD DEGREE OF CLEARING/APPARENT SUBSIDENCE IN NORTHERN PART OF CWA PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EARLIER MODEL RUNS AND LATEST RUC SHOW GOOD NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND 700 MB SUBSIDENCE BEHIND VORTICITY LOBE PASSING THROUGH. THE LOBE HAS BEEFED UP LAKE EFFECT IN SOUTHERN LOWER THIS EVENING...WITH DOMINANT SNOW BAND ON RADAR STRETCHING ACROSS LIVINGSTON AND OAKLAND COUNTIES. ONCE THE LOBE PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...AND PROGGED LOW LEVEL WINDS LESSEN AND SUBSIDENCE LOWERS THE INVERSION HEIGHT...THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD DIMINISH TO FLURRIES. WILL UPDATE TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS AND TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A NOTCH...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE MORE CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. .DTX...NONE. DWD mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1000 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2000 ...WILL LEAVE ADVISORY AS IS OVERNIGHT... LATEST SNOWFALL DATA... SOON TO COME OUT IN A PNS... WILL SHOW UP TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN THE SW CORNER OF KENT COUNTY WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF KENT COUNTY. NORMALLY I WOULD PUT A LAKE SNOW WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF KENT COUNTY HOWEVER... THE LAKE SNOW BANDS ARE SINKING SOUTH AND IT SEEM TO ME THE SNOWFALL EVENT FOR KENT COUNTY SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO WILL JUST FCST AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO POSSIBLE THERE. OVER THE REST OF THE CWA... AS FORECAST AT 400 PM... THE SHTWV HAS MOVED THROUGH THE CWA AND WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHWEST. DRY AIR IS MOVING IN FROM WISCONSIN. EVEN SO... COLDEST POCKET OF AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH SW LWR BTW 09Z AND 12Z. RUC AND ETA KEEP SNOW SHWRS GOING LONG THE LAKE SHORE SINCE MEAN RH BETWEEN 1000 AND 850 STAY NEAR 80 PCT TILL 09Z... THUS ADVISORY AREA IS GOOD AS IS. INLAND... SC WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LWR. ALSO AS WIND SPEEDS LOWER BELOW 850 MB... WINDS WILL DECOUPLE... SO SKIES WILL FCST PARTLY CLOUDY FLURRIES ENDING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS 0 TO 10 BELOW NE CWA. OVER SRN CWA... I-94 AREA... WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH TO FLURRIES AS LARGE SNOW BAND DECREASES (TYPICAL OF WEST WIND LAKE EFFECT) THAT EXTENDS FROM LAKE SHORE TO NORTH OF DTW FALLS APART AS DRY VORT MOVES OUT AND WINDS BELOW 850 DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LAKE SHORE COUNTIES N OF ADVISORY AREA WILL CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR SO. .GRR...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT MIZ056-064-065-071-072. WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 900 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2000 THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM WHITEFISH POINT AND PARADISE AREAS SHOW 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN THERE THIS EVENING... WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW STILL FALLING. THE LATEST MQT 88D SHOWING A COUPLE OF STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH ORIGINS IN THE MIDDLE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER WHITEFISH BAY INTO PARADISE AND RACO AREAS. MESO ETA AND RUC MODEL DATA AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER EAST UPPER TO SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THIS TREND SEEMS TO BE IN LINE AS MQT AND APX 88D ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW SINGS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS TURNING MORE WEST/NORTHWEST. THIS TYPE OF ORIENTATION WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MORE OF NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY THIS EVENING. MQT 88D SHOWING BANDING TAKING PLACE AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH INDICATES GOOD CONVECTION OUT OVER THE LAKE. MODEL DATA SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS...CURRENTLY AROUND 5000 FEET TO 6000 FEET...DROPPING TO UNDER 4000 FEET OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO SPOTTER REPORTS...LATEST MODEL DATA AND 88D DATA... WILL UP CHIPPEWA COUNTY TO A WARNING TONIGHT FOR AROUND 8 INCHES OF SNOW. WILL ALSO ADD SOME SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TO MACKINAC COUNTY AS MQT AND APX 88D SHOWS SINGS OF BANDS OVER ENGADINE AND ST IGNACE. .APX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...TONIGHT...MIZ008. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...TONIGHT...MIZ016-017-019-021-022. SWR mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 945 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2000 ONGOING LES OVER W FA REQUIRING HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING IMPRESSIVE LES AFFECTING PARTS OF ONTONAGON...HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS DEEP WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS NEAR -30C. USING 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KINL AND KGRB INDICATES DEPTH OF CONVECTION EXTENDS TO THE 15K-17K FT RANGE. VILLAGE OF ONTONAGON HAD PERIOD OF ZERO VSBY AS ONE BAND PASSED. SPOTTER REPORTS GENERALLY INDICATING 4 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT. SFC/MARINE OBS SHOWING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONV OVER W LK SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...AND 12Z RUC MAINTAINS THIS LOW-LEVEL CONV THRU THE DAY. DEEP MOISTURE SHOWN ON KINL AND CYPL SOUNDINGS WILL CONTINUE TO AID LES. WILL BE UPGRADING TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR ONTONAGON...HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES. .MQT...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT MIZ001>003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MIZ006>007. ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 958 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2000 UPDATED FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIP TRENDS JUST AS SOON AS THE SNOW ARRIVED...IT WAS GONE. LAST OF THE RETURNS ON 88D ARE INDCD ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL MO ATTM. CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES INDC THAT ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF SNOW COMMON... MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. STANDING WATER ON ROADS MAY FREEZE UP OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN SHORT TERM FCSTS. SNOW ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL MO WL SHIFT SEWD BY MIDNIGHT. LOW CLDS PERSIST ACRS MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FA ATTM. THE CLDS WL SLOLY ADVANCE SWD TNGT. LOW LVL MOISTURE PROGS FM THE RUC AND LATEST ETA RUN HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND. PREV FCST TEMPS FOR TNGT LOOK GOOD AND NO CHGS MADE. UPDATED ZNS ALREADY GONE. .SGF...NONE. CR mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 250 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2000 TEMPERATURES MAIN FCST CONCERN AS WRM ADVCTN LATE TNGT SHOULD PUT A HALT TO TEMP FALL AND THEN TIMING OF NEXT FNT AND COLD ADVCTN WILL AFFECT MONDAYS READINGS. NGM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH WIND SHIFT TOMORROW ...BUT IT IS ACTUALLY A LTL SLOWER WITH THE COLD ADVCTN. SO... OVERALL MODELS DON/T OFFER TOO BIG A DIFFERENCE IN SOLUTIONS FOR FCST AREA. FOR TNGT...MODELS...INCLUDING RUC...FCST SC NERN ZONES TO DISPT OR MOV OFF THIS EVENING WITH CLR/MO CLR SKIES MUCH OF NGT. LATEST STLT ALREADY SHOWD SC OVR EXTREME NERN NEBR BREAKING UP. RTN FLOW TWD MORNING SHOULD BRING FALLING TEMPS TO A HALT WITH EVEN SOME INCREASE PSBL...ESPCLY WRN ZONES. HOWEVER...NERN ZONES WL FEEL THIS EFFECT LAST AND RUC FCSTS SFC TEMPS ARND 10 DEG AT 06Z. WL MENTION STEADY/ SLOWLY RISING TEMPS LATE TNGT WRN ZONES AND LOWER TO NR FWC VALUES NERN ZONES. THEN FOR MONDAY...MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THEIR COLD ADVCTN FM PREV RUN AND FWC VALUES HAVE REVERTED BACK TO YDAS 12Z NUMBERS. WITH COLD START WOULD BE SOMEWHAT RELUCTANT TO RAISE THEM...BUT WITH MOST OF FCST AREA WITH NO SNOW COVER...XCPT THAT WHICH FELL TDA FAR SWRN ZONES...AND HAVING SEEN HOW MUCH THEY HAVE REBOUNDED PAST FEW WRM ADVCTN EPISODES...WL RAISE MOST TWD FWC. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW BHND NEXT FNT...BUT WL THROW IN MENTION OF FLURRIES MON NGT AS ARCTIC AIR COULD SQUEEZE SOME OUT. UNLESS WIDESPREAD SC EXISTS IN COLD AIR TUE...BASED ON TEMP RECOVERY SEEN TDA...UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S MUCH OF CWA...FWC/FAN TEMPS MAY BE A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. WL GO SLGHTLY ABV THEM. .OMA...NONE CHERMOK ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC 835 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2000 PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AREAS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CURRENTLY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CAUSING A BIT OF HELP TO THE LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WEAK MID LEVEL VORTEX ... MORE LIKE A JET IMPULSE RIDING THROUGH MIDDLE GEORGIA. THIS IS ALREADY UNDER THE JET STREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND HARD TO VIEW. AS THIS JET IMPULSE RIDES UP AND ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE NEXT HOURS IT WILL KEEP PROVIDING A BIT OF LIFT. ONCE THIS LEAVES THE REGION THE PRECIP SHOULD TOO. RUC MODEL PORTRAYS THIS AS TAKING PLACE BY 06 UTC. CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON LINE. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE SPOTTY PRECIP AREAS TONIGHT. MAY WORD A BIT HARDER THAN DRIZZLE FOR THE TIME BEING BUT ENDING SOON. THINGS LOOK TO BE QUIETING DOWN NOW BUT LOOK FOR ONE LAST REGION OF PRECIP AS THE JET IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH. .RAH...NONE. CLINE nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC 1030 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2000 MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA STILL SITTING RIGHT ON EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM FOR THIS AFTERNOON. 50H TROUGH APPROACHING FROM WEST HAS ENHANCED EFFICIENCY OF STRONG INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE OVERIDING COLD SURFACE AIR. CONCEPTUAL MODELS OF SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ARE PANNING OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF AREA WHERE BOTH RUC AND MESO ETA INDICATE GREATEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR. HOWEVER SATELLITE INDICATES RIPPLES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE ENHANCING PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. AREAS HAVING GREATEST THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ICING THIS AFTERNOON EXTEND FROM LEXINGTON-ALBEMARLE AREA EAST ACROSS THE TRIANGLE TO THE ROCKY-MOUNT WILSON AREA. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR MOSTLY RAIN WILL FALL WHILE NORTH ALONG THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE PERIODS OF SNOW SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL FALL. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF AREA THROUGH 5PM. WILL DROP WARNING FOR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM NEAR WADESBORO ACROSS FAYETTEVILLE TO THE GOLDSBORO AREA. FOR SURROUNDING WFOS...OUR PROPOSED WSW IS NOW IN WWA. .RAH...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SWH nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1000 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2000 ONLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MARLBORO...ROBESON AND BLADEN COUNTIES HAVE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE WSW SETS TO EXPIRE AT 11AM. ETA AGAIN MODEL OF CHOICE AND BRINGS WARMER AIR (4C) AT H90 ACROSS THESE COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTN. THE RAIN FALLING THROUGH THIS MODERATE TEMPERATE ZONE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FREEZING ON CONTACT WITH SURFACE. TEMPS BELOW GUID FOR THIS AFTN. WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES CRNT FCST TEMPS TO ADJUST FOR VARIATION FROM COAST TO INLAND COUNTIES. SLIGHT SHIFT IN WND DIR BUT WILL KEEP LIGHT. CWF: INVERTED SFC TROF JUST OFF THE COAST ALLOWING VARIABILITY IN WNDS AT AREA BUOYS. THE BEST I CAN INTERPOLATE...WNDS ARE GENERALLY COMING ARND TO NE 10 KTS OR LESS WEST OF THE TROF AXIS. RUC KEEPS NE ACRS THE AREA BEFORE TURNING NNW THIS EVENING. ONLY CHANGES TO CRNT FORECAST WILL BE PROVIDING SOME WIND DIR. .ILM...NONE JFP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 800 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2000 THE ETA SHOWED H85 WARM ADVECTION SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART DIMINISHING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PIEDMONT AND BELIEVE THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 SHORTWAVE WHICH THE RUC MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BELIEVE POPS CAN BE REMOVED AT 1000 PM...BUT PLAN TO KEEP THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDINESS AND SOME WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES AND BELIEVE LOWS WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE H5 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA COULD SUPPORT RAIN MONDAY. THE ETA SHOWS THE BEST PVA IN THE AFTERNOON... BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS ON THE DECREASE AT THIS TIME. MAY MAKE AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE TIMING OF PCPN IN THE SECOND PERIOD AFTER CHECKING THE 00Z ETA. .CAE...NONE. RJL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 300 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2000 MAIN CHALLENGES TONIGHT INCLUDE TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. 20Z SFC ANLAYSIS SHOWS HIGH CENTERED OVER E 2/3 OF NEBRASKA...MINOR TROUGH OVER FAR W SD...AND MAIN SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER TO THE NW...FROM SW SASK THROUGH CNTL MT. SAT LOOP SHOWS CLOUDINESS ALL BUT GONE ACROSS CWA...EXCEPT FOR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. SURFACE WINDS STILL NW ACROSS MOST OF CWA...BUT BEGINNING TO TURN W FAR WESTERN CWA IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE TROUGH(S). RUC AND 12-18 HOUR SURFACE PROGS SUPPORT CONTINUED SHIFT TO SW THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WAA DEVELOPING. LINE OF THINKING IS THAT TEMPS WILL FALL OFF AFTER SUNSET...THEN AS SFC TO 850 WAA STRENGTHENS...TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT LATER THIS EVE...THEN EITHER HOLD STEADY OR EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN WEST AND SW COUNTIES WHERE SNOW COVER IS SLIGHT OR NONEXISTENT. FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MON...FOLLOWED AVN MOST CLOSELY AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH NGM. ETA IS NOTICEABLY SLOWER ON BOTH SFC AND UPPER AIR FEATURES...ESPECIALLY 36 TO 48 HOURS. TREND AS DEPICTED BY AVN HAS GOOD MOISTURE COMING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM...MOVING DOWN FROM SASK...BUT BEST MOISTURE AT OR BELOW H85. UPPER TROUGH LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH GOOD PVA ALOFT...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE...AND LOW FWC/FAN POPS...INDICATED ONLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH FLURRIES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THOUGH...AS LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE SEEN A FEW CONVECTIVE SHSN'S DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND A SIMILAR NORTHWESTERLY UPPER AIR FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON. CLOUDINESS LOOKS TO STAY IN THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH CLEARING FINALLY BEGINNING TUE...ROUGHLY NW TO SE...AS DRY AIR MOVES IN AND GOOD SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ON E SIDE OF SHARP H7 RIDGE. FWC AND FAN TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE EXCEPT FOR TONIGHT IN SNOW COVERED AREAS. LEANED TOWARD COLDER FAN TEMPS TONIGHT...THEN GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND. ...EXTENDED DISCUSSION... ALL MODELS SHOW 5H RIDGE MOVING INTO CWA DURING DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT PCPN WON'T OCCUR. HOWEVER...SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO DIFFERING FORECASTS... ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN CWA. MRF SHOWS 7H TROF PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHICH THE CANADIAN ALSO LEANS TOWARD. AT THE SURFACE...SFC LOW FORMS IN NRN WY AND DROPS INTO NRN COLORADO BY 12Z THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL OVERRUN WARM FRONT DRAPED EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. QUESTION IS WHERE WILL PCPN FALL. MRF AND CANADIAN SHOW PCPN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN SD BY 00Z THUR...WITH NOGAPS PUTTING OUT SMALL PCPN AMOUNTS ALONG MO RIVER BY 12Z THUR. THE MRF/NOGAPS/CANADIAN MODEL FORECAST IS FOR THE SFC LOW TO CONT TO DROP FARTHER SOUTH DURING DAY ON THURSDAY AS SPLIT FLOW AT 5H TAKES OVER. WEAK 5H RIDGING CONTS TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE NRN PLAINS... WHILE WK 5H TROFING TAKES PLACE FURTHER SOUTH. OF INTEREST IS THAT THE UKMET/ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH DROPS ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA...HELPING TO KEEP SFC LOW PUSHED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH... WITH THE END RESULT BEING NO PCPN FOR OUR CWA. THE OTHER MODELS ALSO FORECAST SPLIT FLOW...WITH THE WEAK RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THIS THOUGHT...WILL CONT WITH THE DRY FCST GOING IN THE ZONES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATER RUNS TO SEE IF PCPN STAYS CONSTANT FOR SWRN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH STRONG HIGH COMING DOWN EAST OF CWA WITH EXPECTED SURFACE FLOW OFF OF SNOW PACK TO EAST/SOUTHEAST...WILL UNDERCUT FMR TEMPS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR NERN ZONES. KPIR AND KMBG LOOK OK. .ABR...NONE. LORENS/HINTZ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1005 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2000 CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. STLT AND PIREPS INDCT LOW CLDS ARE PRETTY THIN AND SHOULD BE BREAKING UP THIS AFTN. QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ETA AND THE LATEST RUC SHOW WK CAA OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTN. WITH CLDS AND CAA...TEMPS WL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE IN A HURRY UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN. PREV FCST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND. WL NOT BE UPDATING THE ZFP ATTM...BUT WL BE SENDING OUT A NEW NWR FCST TO CLEAN UP SOME WORDING BY 11AM. .FSD...NONE GILLISPIE sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 956 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2000 MIXED BAG OF PRECIP CONTG TO ENHANCE ACROSS FOOTHILL/PIEDMONT CTYS OF SRN VA AND NW NC THIS MORN. LUCKILY RADAR TRENDS INDICATE BACK EDGE OF SIG FZRA NOW ARND MWK IN NW NC AND EXPECT IMPROVING CONDS TO GRDLY WORK EWD THROUGH EARLY AFTN. WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONT WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR FAR SE ZONES PENDING RELEASE TIME ECHOES...OTRW PLAN TO TRIM OFF ZONES WEST OF A LYH TO MTV TO MWK LINE IN THIS UPDATE. LATEST RUC DOES HANG ON TO A BIT MORE PRECIP SE CORNER THAN THE EARLIER MESO-ETA AND THIS MAY NOT BE TOO BAD GIVEN SHEAR AXIS NOW JUST CROSSING THE WRN MTNS. OTRW OTHER THAN FOR A FEW LINGERING PRDS OF -SN NW NC...APRS CAN GO WITH MNLY CLDY/COLD ELSW THIS AFTN WITH BEST SWATH OF PRECIP REMAINING SOUTH CLOSER TO NEXT WEAK SFC WAVE. APCHG UPR TROF SHOULD FINALLY PUSH DEEPER RH TO THE COAST THIS EVE WITH ONLY SCT SNOW SHWRS OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CD FRONT. TEMPS GNRLY ON TRACK AND EXPECT ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. .RNK VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY VAZ043-044-045-046-058-059 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WV...NONE. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NCZ004-005-006 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. JH va EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON 230 PM PST SUN JAN 23 2000 MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF A SHEAR AXIS LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST...WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RISING IN THE NE HALF OF THE FCST AREA DESPITE NORTHEAST WINDS. THESE TWO FACTS LEAD ME TO RAISE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES. AREA RADARS ALSO SHOWING A FEW ELEVATED ECHOES NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA...SO WILL MENTION FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. STILL WAITING FOR THE MAIN SYSTEM LOCATED OFFSHORE FROM NRN CA TO AFFECT THE AREA STARTING LATE MON AFTN THROUGH TUE. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THE SYSTEM WILL RIDE UP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL AID PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE CHANCES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY ON TUE AFTN. 21Z RUC KEEPS LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN BY MON AFTN. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ON MON NGT AND TUE MRNG...BUT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN BETWEEN FOR THE BASIN AS COLD AIR CLINGS TO THE SURFACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES BY ON TUE...COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN AND LOW-MID LEVEL NNW FLOW SETS UP...GIVING A VERY FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR HEAVY SNOW IN ID ZONE 27 ON TUE NGT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. EXTENDED...STILL ENOUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST AND IDAHO PANHANDLE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AWH/LH ...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS... GEG 023/030/026/035 1245 CQV 018/030/024/032 0235 S86 016/028/020/032 0124 COE 022/030/025/034 1235 WWP 016/027/022/033 0125 LWS 031/038/032/041 3446 MOS 026/034/029/036 EAT 024/030/026/034 1453 .GEG...NONE. wa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE TSTM WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 455 AM EST MON JAN 24 2000 UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 15Z FOR ALL BUT WALTON COUNTY IN FL CWFA AND SRN TIER OF OUR GA CWFA. THE 07Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED E-W ACROSS SRN PORTION OF CWFA ALONG A JAX-TLH-DTS LINE. EXTENSIVE BAND OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS COVERED MUCH OF FL PENINSULA INTO EASTERN GULF IN REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT OF RIGHT REAR QUAD 120+ KT JET AND WEAKENING LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG BOUNDARY. 88D MOSAIC REVEALED MOST OF PCPN FROM APALACHEE BAY SOUTH AND EAST. NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE INITIALIZED WELL BY MESO-ETA OVER OK AT 24/00Z NOW OVER AR/LA MOVING ESEWD. RATHER STRONG UVV FIELD AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND LEFT FRONT QUAD OF 140 KT JET NOSING SEWD INTO LOWER MS VALLEY SPARKING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM CENTRAL AL INTO SRN LA W/ GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER SRN MS MOVING EAST AND WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN CWFA AFTER 08Z. WINDS INVOF OF BOUNDARY WERE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM...LIGHT E-SE TO ITS SOUTH AND LIGHT N OVER SE AL/SW GA. MOIST GROUNDS FROM SUNDAY/S RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO FORMATION OF PATCHY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF SE AL/SW GA. ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...VSBYS RANGED FROM 3 TO P6SM. THERE WAS 15-20 DEGREE TEMP SWING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY W/ 45 AT ABY TO 62 AT AQQ. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/ REGARDS TO POSITION/INTENSITY OF POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH IS PROGGED TO ZIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND EXIT THE FL PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS/LIFT ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NORTH FL WILL AID IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. ETA...NGM...AND RUC ALL PROG THE MAIN VORTICITY MAX TO SWING EWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND NORTH FL THIS AFTERNOON. BEST LI/S ON NGM (0 TO -2) INDICATE CONTINUED CHC FOR SOME TSTMS EVEN THOUGH SFC BASED LIS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST. ATTM...BEST INSTABILITY/HIGHEST CAPES OFFSHORE AND EXPECT STRONGER CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. LATEST SWOMCD FROM SPC ADDRESSES THIS AND POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ALONG COASTAL BEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. ONCE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST OF CWFA THIS AFTERNOON...FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD INTO SOUTH FL BY 25/00Z...AND EAST OF FL BY 25/12Z. BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN MID/UPPER LEVELS THRU 48 HRS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEAN 1000-500 RH VALUES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG W/ CLEARING TREND. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING IN WAKE OF SURFACE LOW AND WILL USE "BRISK" WORDING ALL ZONES. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER/PCPN SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN 50S TODAY. DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP FOR MIN TEMPS TUE IN LOW-MID 30S...UPR 30S IMMEDIATE COAST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DESPITE FAIR-GOOD INSOLATION TUE TO KEEP MAXIMA IN 50-55 DEG RANGE. WITH PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SWINGING EAST THRU THE CWFA AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING...ENDING BY 15Z DHN/PFN...18Z ABY/TLH...AND 21Z VLD/CTY. NIL POPS TONIGHT/TUE. FAN MOS APPEARS A TAD COOL AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO FWC. FIRE WEATHER: NO CONCERNS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS/PCPN/HIGH RH. DEWPTS FALL INTO THE 20S TUE AFTERNOON INLAND ZONES W/ AFTERNOON MAXIMA IN 50-55 DEG RANGE...RESULTING IN LOWEST RH VALUES NEAR 30 PERCENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW DEWPTS WILL DROP W/ NGM THE DRIEST AND ETA/AVN MAINTAINING LOW-MID 30S. WILL PALY IT SAFE AND POST FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUE AFTERNOON THRU SUNSET. EXTENDED: AFTER FREEZING TEMPS TUE NIGHT...EXPECT P/CDY AND COLD WED/THU...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS...SLIGHT WARMING AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI WITH LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM LOWER MS VALLEY. LOWS IN 20S WED/THU...WARMING TO 30S FRI. HIGHS AROUND 50 WED/THU AND IN 50S FRI. MARINE: TPA W (42036) BUOY OBSERVED EAST 15 GUST 17 KT WHILE WINDS AT PNS S (42039) HAVE VEER TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM WEST. SPEEDS HAVEN/T INCREASED AS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING W/ 8-10 KT AND 4 FT SEAS. ANTICIPATE WIND SHIFT TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS/SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY SLACKEN TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EDGES EAST INTO MARINE AREA AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THANKS FOR COORDINATION MOB. COMMENTS WELCOME. PRELIM CCF... TLH 058/033 054/027 8000 PFN 057/039 054/035 8000 DHN 050/033 052/028 8000 ABY 049/033 051/027 8000 VLD 059/034 052/029 8-00 .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...SEVERE TSTM WATCH UNTIL 15Z GAZ155>161. FL...SEVERE TSTM WATCH UNTIL 15Z FLZ009>019-026>029-034. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUWANNEE RIVER TO DESTIN. FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUE AFTERNOON INLAND FL ZONES. MAJ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 452 AM EST MON JAN 24 2000 ...AMENDED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH... LINE OF TSTMS INCREASING OVER NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RUC INDICATES INCREASING INSTABILITY AS THE FRONTAL WAVE NR VPS/PAM BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND APPROACH N FL/SE GA. STORMS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WATCH INCLUDES ALL OF NORTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FLAGLER COUNTY AND INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF EXTREME SERN GA...CAMDEN...CHARLTON...CLINCH...ECHOLS...WARE. WAYCROSS...BRUNSWICK AND ST. SIMONS ISLAND ARE JUST NORTH OF THE ACTUAL WATCH BOX...BUT REMEMBER A WATCH MEANS THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR IN AND NEAR THE WATCH BOX...INTERESTS IN THOSE COMMUNITIES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. .JAX... GA...SCA ALTAMAHA SOUND-FERNANDINA BEACH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THRU 10 AM EXTREME SERN GA. FL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THRU 10 AM N FL. SANDRIK fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 240 AM EST MON JAN 24 2000 THE 07Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED E-W ACROSS SRN PORTION OF CWFA ALONG A JAX-TLH-DTS LINE. EXTENSIVE BAND OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS COVERED MUCH OF FL PENINSULA INTO EASTERN GULF IN REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT OF RIGHT REAR QUAD 120+ KT JET AND WEAKENING LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG BOUNDARY. 88D MOSAIC REVEALED MOST OF PCPN FROM APALACHEE BAY SOUTH AND EAST. NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE INITIALIZED WELL BY MESO-ETA OVER OK AT 24/00Z NOW OVER AR/LA MOVING ESEWD. RATHER STRONG UVV FIELD AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND LEFT FRONT QUAD OF 140 KT JET NOSING SEWD INTO LOWER MS VALLEY SPARKING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM CENTRAL AL INTO SRN LA W/ GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER SRN MS MOVING EAST AND WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN CWFA AFTER 08Z. WINDS INVOF OF BOUNDARY WERE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM...LIGHT E-SE TO ITS SOUTH AND LIGHT N OVER SE AL/SW GA. MOIST GROUNDS FROM SUNDAY/S RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO FORMATION OF PATCHY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF SE AL/SW GA. ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...VSBYS RANGED FROM 3 TO P6SM. THERE WAS 15-20 DEGREE TEMP SWING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY W/ 45 AT ABY TO 62 AT AQQ. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/ REGARDS TO POSITION/INTENSITY OF POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH IS PROGGED TO ZIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND EXIT THE FL PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS/LIFT ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NORTH FL WILL AID IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. ETA...NGM...AND RUC ALL PROG THE MAIN VORTICITY MAX TO SWING EWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND NORTH FL THIS AFTERNOON. BEST LI/S ON NGM (0 TO -2) INDICATE CONTINUED CHC FOR SOME TSTMS EVEN THOUGH SFC BASED LIS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST. ATTM...BEST INSTABILITY/HIGHEST CAPES OFFSHORE AND EXPECT STRONGER CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. LATEST SWOMCD FROM SPC ADDRESSES THIS AND POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ALONG COASTAL BEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. ONCE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST OF CWFA THIS AFTERNOON...FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD INTO SOUTH FL BY 25/00Z...AND EAST OF FL BY 25/12Z. BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN MID/UPPER LEVELS THRU 48 HRS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEAN 1000-500 RH VALUES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG W/ CLEARING TREND. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING IN WAKE OF SURFACE LOW AND WILL USE "BRISK" WORDING ALL ZONES. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER/PCPN SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN 50S TODAY. DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP FOR MIN TEMPS TUE IN LOW-MID 30S...UPR 30S IMMEDIATE COAST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DESPITE FAIR-GOOD INSOLATION TUE TO KEEP MAXIMA IN 50-55 DEG RANGE. WITH PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SWINGING EAST THRU THE CWFA AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING...ENDING BY 15Z DHN/PFN...18Z ABY/TLH...AND 21Z VLD/CTY. NIL POPS TONIGHT/TUE. FAN MOS APPEARS A TAD COOL AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO FWC. FIRE WEATHER: NO CONCERNS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS/PCPN/HIGH RH. DEWPTS FALL INTO THE 20S TUE AFTERNOON INLAND ZONES W/ AFTERNOON MAXIMA IN 50-55 DEG RANGE...RESULTING IN LOWEST RH VALUES NEAR 30 PERCENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW DEWPTS WILL DROP W/ NGM THE DRIEST AND ETA/AVN MAINTAINING LOW-MID 30S. WILL PALY IT SAFE AND POST FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUE AFTERNOON THRU SUNSET. EXTENDED: AFTER FREEZING TEMPS TUE NIGHT...EXPECT P/CDY AND COLD WED/THU...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS...SLIGHT WARMING AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI WITH LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM LOWER MS VALLEY. LOWS IN 20S WED/THU...WARMING TO 30S FRI. HIGHS AROUND 50 WED/THU AND IN 50S FRI. MARINE: TPA W (42036) BUOY OBSERVED EAST 15 GUST 17 KT WHILE WINDS AT PNS S (42039) HAVE VEER TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM WEST. SPEEDS HAVEN/T INCREASED AS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING W/ 8-10 KT AND 4 FT SEAS. ANTICIPATE WIND SHIFT TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS/SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY SLACKEN TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EDGES EAST INTO MARINE AREA AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THANKS FOR COORDINATION MOB. COMMENTS WELCOME. PRELIM CCF... TLH 058/033 054/027 8000 PFN 057/039 054/035 8000 DHN 050/033 052/028 8000 ABY 049/033 051/027 8000 VLD 059/034 052/029 8-00 .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUWANNEE RIVER TO DESTIN OUT TO 60 NM. FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUE AFTERNOON INLAND FL ZONES. MAJ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1145 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2000 SENT OUT UPDATE TO INCLUDE CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALL ZONES REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRONG VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT S/W DROPPING INTO THE AREA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH ITS ASSOC UVVS TO KICK OFF SOME MORE TSTMS. ETA...NGM...AND RUC ALL FORECAST THE MAIN VORT MAX IN THE 26-28 RANGE WHEN IT WHIPS THROUGH. LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. "BEST LIS" ON NGM (0 TO -2) INDICATE CONTINUED CHCS FOR TSTMS EVEN THOUGH SFC BASED LIS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST. CURRENT TSTM ACTIVITY IN WRN AL IN AN AREA OF SFC TEMPS IN THE 40S SPELLS THAT SHALLOW BASED SFC COOL LAYER WILL NOT PRECLUDE TSTMS FROM OCCURING WITH STRONG S/W MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALSO ADDED FOG LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS MENTION TO AL/GA AND WRN FL BIG BEND ZONES. .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. VOLKMER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 152 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2000 LOCAL FCST CONCERNS THROUGH MON AM WILL DEAL WITH CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS EVENING CHC FOR -SN /FLURRIES/ ACRS SRN 1/2 OF CWA. FOR MON...DEGREE OF COLD AIR SC DEVELOPMENT WL DETERMINE ULTIMATE CLOUD COVER. FOR TUE...TRACE SNOW EVENT IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MINOR...BUT MEASURABLE /LESS THAN 0.10" WATER EQUIVALENT/ SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER SERN IL...SWRN IN AND NWRN KY DURING TUE AFTN AND EVENING. IN THE EXTENDED PKG...MRF SUGGEST CLOUDS INCREASING THURS NITE...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON FRI...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RUC...ALL MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING PERSISTANT CLOUDINESS OVER FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND AT MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH NGM/ETA/AVN INITIALIZED CLOSE TO UA FEATURES/PROFILERS/SATL PIX TODAY...AVN WAS THE BETTER MODEL IN AN OVERALL SENSE...ALBEIT DISPLACING FEATURES A LTL TOO FAR NORTH. DIFFICULT TO UTILIZE NGM SINCE SNOW COVER INPUT IS UNCERTAIN. DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND SNOW COVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TEMPERATURE FCST WL BE A NIGHTMARE. WL LIKELY SEE BUSTS IN TEMP FCST DUE TO THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CLOUDS AND SNOW COVER. SIMILIAR TO LAST NIGHT...FOG IS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY UNDER WEAK WINDS/CLEAR SKIES/MOIST PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON TUE. POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND FLURRIES WL BE THE LIKELY SCENARIO...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE WED THROUGH THU...WITH INCR CLOUDS THU NIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MSTR OVER SERN MO LATE THU FOR SNOW FLURRIES...BUT WL NOT MENTION IN PKG ATTM. THE SHOT OF ARTIC AIR SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CNTRL OK TO SGF ON THU NIGHT/FRI AM...WITH AN INVERTED TROF EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEFORMATION ALOFT WOULD PLACE AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA IN MEASURABLE SNOWFALL CHANCE CAT ON FRI...GIVEN INCRSING MSTR. WL WAIT AND SEE. WL LEAN TWD ETA/AVN TEMPS FOR MAX/MINS...BUT WL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS FOR EXPECTED CLOUD/SNOW COVER. .PAH...NONE. SMITH ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR ISSUE TIME NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC 310 AM EST MON JAN 24 2000 HAVING COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ALL APPEAR TO BE MATCHING CLOSELY WITH THE UPCOMING SCENARIO TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. COMPARING MODEL INITIALIZATION WITH OBSERVATIONS EARLIER TONIGHT... THERMAL STRUCTURE OF UPSTREAM AIR IS BEST DEPICTED IN THE ETA MODEL. ETA...AS WELL AS OTHER MODELS IN VARIOUS DEGREES...SUGGEST ANY PCPN FALLING IN CENTRAL NC TODAY WOULD START AS LIQUID CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY TONIGHT. ETA..NGM..AVN MODELS ARE LESS CERTAIN ABOUT THE OCCURRENCE OF MEASURABLE PCPN IN CENTRAL NC. NONE REALLY ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTIVE PCPN THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL AL IN THE PAST 6 HOUR PERIOD...THOUGH THE RUC APPEARS BEST WITH THE PATTERN. THE IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE OVER THE DELTA REGION AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE ETA AND MESOETA. MOST PCPN SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA... BUT A SUFFICIENT NORTHWEST BULGE COULD DEVELOP TO CAUSE PROBLEM IN THE RAH COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY TONIGHT. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IN THIS SYSTEM COULD CAUSE A SUDDEN COOLING OF THE COLUMN SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF SNOW BURST AS THE SYSTEM WINDS UP AT THE COAST BY TONIGHT. THE MORE EASTWARD SHUNTING OF THE MOISTURE TONIGHT AS DEPICTED BY ETA AND AVN IS FAVORED OVER THE LAGGING NGM. FORECASTS WILL INDICATE SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE EARLY TODAY...POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING NORTHWEST HALF CWA. THIS AFTERNOON PCPN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH 50-60% CHANCE OF RAIN THEN MIXING OR CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. NO ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS POINT SINCE MOST PCPN SHOULD BE IN THE ENDING PHASES AS IT CHANGES TO SNOW. BUT WORDING WILL IMPLY SOME LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BEFORE ENDING. THIS WILL REFLECT THINKING THAT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL SNOW BURSTS. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL FAVOR GUIDANCE MID 30S...MINS TONIGHT MID TO UPPER 20S...AND MAXS TUESDAY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...GIVEN ETA 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1273 AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. .RAH...NONE. RFG nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 300 AM EST MON JAN 24 2000 VORT ENERGY STRETCHING FROM ONTARIO SW INTO MISS VLLY. SFC LOW NR FL PAN...WITH FRONT NE ACRS S GA TO NR THE SC CST. PCPN AREA DEVLPNG OVR CENT GA/ALA...MOVG ENE. MDLS GENERALLY AGREE. THEY MV VORT ENERGY EAST TODAY...WITH MOST PVA REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. SFC LOW DEVELOPS WHILE MOVG ENE TO OFFSHORE SC CST BY AFTN. THEY PLACE MST PCPN NR FNT/TRACK OF LOW NR CST...BUT FWC/FAN STILL PROVIDE HIGH POPS TODAY FOR CAE/AGS EVEN IF PROGGED AMTS ARE LIGHTER. LTST RUC MOVES PCPN FURTHER N...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN CURRENT PCPN AREA OVR GA/ALA MOVG ENE. PRTL THKNS/850 TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS SUGGESTS -RA COULD MIX WITH SNOW OR SLEET BEFORE ENDING...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUM EXPECTED. DECREASING CLOUDS TON. FAIR AND COOL TUE. NEXT VORT COMES IN TUE NT/WED...WITH DEVELPNG LOW OFFSHORE. N FLW SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE FOR US...BUT COULDNT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS. COLD AIR REINFORCED THRU LATE WEEK. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS INTERESTING. PRELIM CCF CAE RB 37/25/45 800 AGS RB 40/25/47 +00 .CAE...NONE. DCM sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 400 AM CST MON JAN 24 2000 STRATUS/FOG WILL LINGER OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. 06Z RUC/MESOETA SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION PROGS DEPICT THIS AREA OF STRATUS/FOG WELL AND EXPECT IT TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 16Z THIS MORNING. TIME REMAINING FOR DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL BE REDUCED BUT EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONE TO THREE CATEGORIES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS. AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW PATTERN UNDERWAY WITH DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE OHIO AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS AND RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. 50H HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO THE BUILDING OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. STRONGEST PUSH OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EAST OF REGION BUT MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE SHALLOW NATURE OF COLD AIRMASS VERY WELL. WILL GO CLOSER TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS REGION TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE AMPLITUDE OR THE TRACK FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT DEVIATING FROM THE DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY FOR THIS AREA. BUT THE MRF/UKMET SHOW THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIGGING FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MRF BRINGS THIS UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACHING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...COULD FINALLY SEE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY THEN ON INTO SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS. FRIONA 65/27/41/22 0000 TULIA 62/27/41/21 0000 CHILDRESS 59/32/41/24 0000 BROWNFIELD 68/35/47/26 0000 LUBBOCK 64/33/45/24 0000 ASPERMONT 63/37/45/27 0000 .LBB...NONE. TINSLEY tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1145 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2000 SATELLITE SHOWS BAND OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS TIME. WITH LATEST ETA AND RUC SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL UPDATE FOR SKY CONDITION AND TWEAK WIND. .LBB...NONE. JV/08 tx COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 835 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2000 AS OF 02Z THE COLD FNT WAS ALONG A PSX-LRD LINE. MSAS AND SFC OBS INDICATE THAT THE FNT IS ACCELERATING SWD. PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE RATHER NICELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TX ALONG WITH INCREASING NLY WINDS. I AM EXPECTING THE COLD FNT TO CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA BY MIDNIGHT. THE CURRENT FCST HAS THE INCREASING NLY WINDS HANDLED WELL. ALSO...THE TEMP FCST LOOKS GOOD. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG WHICH HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST. THIS WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE FNT MOVES THROUGH. MARINE: WL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR ALL AREAS TNT. THE LATEST RUC INDICATES WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE NLY FETCH...SEAS WL PICK UP RATHER QUICKLY. MAY ADJUST SEAS UP A BIT. MB .CRP...SCA ALL MARINE ZONES. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1045 AM CST MON JAN 24 2000 MAIN CONCERN WITH THE UPDATE PERIOD IS CLOUDS/PCPN TRENDS. BACKED OFF ON LATE AFTN SNOW IN ERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH RUC SHOWS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...REMAINDER OF DYNAMICS SEEM DISJOINTED ON LATEST RUC/ETA. RRQ OF LSUP JET STREAK APPEARS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND BEST 400 MB PV ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL OVERNIGHT. 12Z MPX RAOB SHOWED FAIRLY DEEP DRY AIR...AND EXPECT THAT BY THE TIME WE SATURATE ENOUGH FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...BEST FORCING WOULD EXIT TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...WILL JUST CARRY FLURRIES ATTM. OTRW...ARCTIC FRONT IS ON TRACK...CURRENTLY FROM NE-SW THROUGH LXL-ILL-MML. WIND/TEMP TRENDS ARE LOOKING GOOD...WITH FEW CHANGES IN THE UPDATE. .MSP...NONE. DAVIS mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1045 AM EST MON JAN 24 2000 WK SFC TROF THRU SRN ADRNDCKS-NRN PA PROVIDING SOME SHSN IN WRN DIST AND WL INCR POPS THOSE AREAS. RUC CONTS DRYING TREND DURG ERY AFTN...WL REPHRASE CLDS TO BE LESS PESSIMISTIC AND CHG WNDS TO WRLY OR TURNING THAT WAY PER TROF PASSAGE. WL ALSO TURN EVNG TO VRBL CLDS ...THEN THKNG OVRNGT. ANY OTHER CHGS MINIMAL. MCKINLEY .ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE. ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1030 AM EST MON JAN 24 2000 STRONG SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH 850 MB LOW IN VICINITY OF FFC ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PRODUCING PRECIP ACROSS SE PORTION AT PRESENT. UPPER VORT SLOWLY WORKING INTO SRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA YIELDING STRONG Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND MIDLANDS. MOISTURE PULL NORTHWARD ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF 850 MB LOW CONT TO PUMP PRECIP INTO THE AREA. CALLS TO COUNTIES SHOWING NEARLY 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON GROUND IN PORTIONS OF THE PRESENTLY WARNED AREA...WILL NEED TO UP FORECAST SNOW TOTALS. THICKNESSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. LATEST RUC AND MESO ETA AGREE WITH EARLY PANELS FROM NGM AND ETA THAT .25 INCH OR BETTER LIQ EQUIV NOW POSSIBLE FROM ABBEVILLE TO CLT METRO...WITH .10 OR BETTER INTO MOST OF THE UPSTATE. WILL UP AMOUNTS TO 4 TO 6 INCHES IN WARNING AND EXTEND SW INTO ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM ELBERT AND HART AND UPSTATE SC...MAINLY S OF INTERSTATE 85...INTO CLEVELAND AND GASTON COUNTIES NC. NEW WSW AND ZONES TO FLY AT 11 AM. .GSP...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY NCZ071-072-082-SCZ009-011>014-019. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY NCZ068-070-SCZ004>008-010- GAZ028-029. HG sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1000 AM EST MON JAN 24 2000 WE ARE GETTING REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOW ON TOP OF ICE ACROSS LANCASTER COUNTY. SNOW ALSO FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEWBERRY CNTY. SLEET HAS STARTED OVER CHESTERFIELD. PLAN TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MY NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND ADISORIES NEXT TIER COUNTIES OVER. 12Z RUC HAS 1304 1000-850 MB THICKNESS MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. MESOETA NOT AS COLD BUT MSTR STILL THERE. .CAE...WINTER STORM WARNING SCZ015-020-021. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW THROUGH AFTERNOON SCZ016-022-025-026-027-028. LM sc SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 930 AM CST MON JAN 24 2000 SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR SPS THIS AM. N/NW FLOW ADVECTING COOLER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD. FORECAST ISSUES ARE CLOUDS AND TEMPS. SC DECK PUSHING S/SW ACROSS LA THIS MORNING AND MAY EDGE INTO EASTERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. RUC INDICATES VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SO THESE CLOUDS LIKELY TO ERODE AS THEY ENTER FA AND SOME MIXING OCCURS. IN ADDITION...A FEW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET. AT THE MOMENT ...BELIEVE M SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE THE BEST TERM FOR AFT SKY CONDITION. CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL LET STAND. THEREFORE WILL NOT UPDATE ZONE PACKAGE. FOR MARINE...WILL ADJUST SCA TO INCLUDE ONLY 20-60 NM ZONES. 33/45 PRELIMS... CLL UB 058/037 063/035 053 000 IAH UB 062/038 062/038 051 000 GLS UB 060/049 062/049 060 000 .HGX...SCA 20-60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1005 AM EST MON JAN 24 2000 DELICATE BALANCE OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL NC INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWFA AND WEAK DIURNAL INFLUENCE. ATTM WILL HOLD OFF ON WSW AS BORDERLINE CONDITIONS EXIST MOST OF AFTN. HOWEVER LATEST RUC HAS COLD BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EVOLVING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND WILL MENTION POSSIBLE MIX LATE AFTN NORTHERN COUNTIES IN ZONE UPDATE. AREA TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A TAD AS WELL. CWF...FPSN7 ALREADY AT 30 KTS WITH SEAS AT 6 FT. LATEST RUC SKYROCKETING WNDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO GALE FORCE SUPPORTED BY TREND IN MSAS MSLP GRADIENT. GALE WARNING ALREADY UP FOR OUR AREA BY WILL DELETE MENTION OF BECOMING GALE TOWARD EVENING. WILL BE LOOKING CLOSER AS MODEL DATA COMES IN IF STORM WARNING FLAGS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED IN THE AFTN PACKAGE. THANKS FOR THE COORD RAH AND CHS. .ILM...GALE WARNING SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC. JFP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 956 AM EST MON JAN 24 2000 WK TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST TODAY. WK HI PRESS RIDGE TO NOSE IN FROM THE SW ACRS THE REGION TONITE...AS A CF MOVES ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION. ALSO...A STORM SYS WILL BE INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TODAY AND TONITE. 09Z RUC SHOWS TEMPS GETTING UP INTO THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. SW SFC WINDS TO FURTHER DEVELOP IN THE ST LAW VLY TODAY...WITH WINDS MORE WESTERLY ELSEWHERE. LT LES TO PERSIST ACRS NORTHERN NY IN SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH 18Z TODAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE H5 TROF TO MOVES ON THROUGH. MOST OF THE H85 MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN NY SIDE OF THE FA TODAY. VERY MINIMAL QPF INDICATED BY RUC TODAY IN NORTHERN NY. H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH 00Z TONITE...WITH WK WAA AFTER THAT THROUGH 12Z TUE. HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY TODAY IN THE ADIRONDACKS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE TRENDS. MSS-LAND MOST LIKELY TO STAY OUT OF ANY LES TODAY...SO MENTIONED THAT THE BEST CHC FOR ANY MEASURABLE SN WILL BE IN THE HIR TRRN OF THE ST LAW VLY TODAY. CHC OF FLURRIES LOOKS OK FOR THE REST OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH DOUBT THAT SRN VT WILL SEE ANYTHING AT ALL. WILL SAVE ANY BIG TIME ZONE RE-GROUPINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. AM HANDICAPPED A LIL TODAY IN FORECASTING TEMPS AS NO MESONET DATA AVAILABLE DUE TO LOCAL COMMS PROBLEMS. WORK ZONES GONE. FINAL ZFP AFTER A FEW TWEAKS AND A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST LAMP DATA. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt