AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1120 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2000 CURRENTLY: 02Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER ACROSS NW LA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MESO ANALYSIS A LITTLE TRICKY THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINT SENSORS AT PANAMA CITY (KPFN) AND DOTHAN (KDHN) STUCK NEAR FREEZING. NEARBY OBSERVATIONS AT KPAM SHOW A DEWPOINT OF 52 DEGS AND OZARK/ FT RUCKER (KOZR) ALABAMA REPORTING DEWPOINT OF 46 DEGS. SO WILL GO WITH THESE NUMBERS AS MORE REPRESENTATIVE FOR PANAMA CITY AND SE AL. ACROSS THE ERN CWA AND GA...DWPTS STILL IN THE 30S AT 02Z...AS WARM FRONT IS STILL OFF TO THE WEST. SHORT TERM: 18Z MESO-ETA WAS RIGHT ON THE MARK WITH ITS PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW CENTER ACROSS XTRM NW ARK AT 00Z. MESO-ETA TRACKS SFC LOW PRES EAST ACROSS MS FROM 06Z TO 12Z WITH A SFC CENTER NEAR CSG AT 18Z AND ALONG A SAV-MCN LINE BY 00Z. MESO ETA LIS DROP TO -1 TO -4 RANGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA BY 12Z AS WARM SECTOR ENCOMPASSES THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MESO-ETA DROPS LIS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA INTO THE -1 TO -5 RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. STRONGEST 925 MB SW FLOW FCT BY MESO ETA ACROSS AL AT 06Z AND CENTRAL GA 12Z-18Z. CURRENT MOSAIC 88DS SHOWING A PATCH OF MAINLY RAIN FROM ATL TO MGM TO W OF MOB MOVING EAST. EXPECT WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE MAKING IN ROADS ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND AM NOT WORRIED ABOUT FROZEN PRECIP. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THOUGH IF THERE IS A BIT OF WINTERY MIX AT CSG AND MCN WITH CURRENT DWPTS AROUND 21 DEGS AND PRECIP ADVANCING IN FROM THE WEST. NGM MOS NOT DOING A PARTICULARLY GOOD JOB FORECASTING 03Z DWPTS 6-9 DEGS TO WARM AT THESE TWO SITES. MARINE: LATEST LOOK AT MARINE BUOYS SHOWING WINDS STARTING TO COME UP AT PNS S BUOY WITH WINDS S 19-21 KNOTS AND 3 FOOT SEAS...W TPA BUOY REPORTING S WINDS 12-14 KNOTS AND EVEN CAPE SAN BLAS WINDS COMING UP WITH SSE WINDS 16-17 KNOTS. WILL BREAK OUT WESTERN MARINE AREA WITH HIGHER WINDS ALREADY BEING EXPERIENCED THERE AND RAISE SCEC FOR WRN MARINE AREA. ALSO THINK SMALL CRAFT SEAS A GOOD BET BY SUN AFTERNOON FOR THE WATERS WITH LONG SW FETCH AND WINDS NR 20 KNOTS. WILL LET MID SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL THOUGH SINCE HIGHEST SEAS LIKELY BEYOND 12 HRS. WILL MENTION 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS AND THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAT BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY THOUGH. UPDATED ZFP AND CORRECTED CWF. BROKE OUT A NEW ZONE GROUPING FOR ERN BIG BEND AS CTY HAS DROPPED DOWN TO 39 DEGS. (EXPECT WARM FRONT TO RAISE TEMPS INTO THE 40S THOUGH LATER TONIGHT THERE). CORRECTED CWF...HEADLINE SHOULD READ SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY FOR DESTIN TO AQQ SEGMENT. .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE FL...NONE. VOLKMER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 244 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2000 CURRENTLY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BEGINNING TO PUSH OFFSHORE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE WARM FRONT...PER ISOBAR... ISOTERM...AND WIND FIELD ANALYSIS...IS ALSO EVIDENT FROM NORTHERN TX AND INTO SOUTHERN AK...N CNTRL MS...N AL...N CNTRL GA...AND OFF THE SC COAST. AT THE UPR LVLS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WITH OUTSTANDING FEATURE BEING UPR LVL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE US. 12Z UPR AIR DATA AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AXIS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... TN..AND S AK. ANOTHER JET STREAK IS ALSO EVIDENT TO BE MOVG INTO THE SW ATTM. MODELS...IN GENERAL...I THINK ETA INITIALIZED BETTER ESPECIALLY THE SURFACE FEATURES. IN TERMS OF THE EVOLUTION IN THE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW...ALL SHOW A SIMILAR PICTURE. SO ALTHOUGH I WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ETA I WILL STILL USE AN ENSEMBLE OF ALL THEM. AND THAT IS S/W DROPPING FROM CANADA ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALONG WITH THAT...SFC LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN TX MOVES EAST ALONG WARM FRONT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND MS AND OFF THE TX COAST BY TOMORROW AFTN. BUT PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANT IS THAT AT THE UPR LVLS WE WILL HAVE CURRENT JET ACROSS THE SE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NE AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH WITH SECONDARY JET MAX DIGGING SE INTO TX AND NW GULF. IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPR LVL FORCING...SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES COAST TOMORROW AFTN AND THEN LIFTS NE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS THE AREA FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD FOCUS OF MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WITH DECENT UPR LVL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY JET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST...ALL THE ABOVE SAID... THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WE HAVE HAD IN QUITE A WHILE. I WILL PUT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY IN SE GA AND EXTREME NE FL WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY. THEM I WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING DECREASING LATE ON MONDAY. TEMP WISE...I WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE AVN/FMR FOR THIS PACKAGE. WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS FROM TOMORROW NIGHT TO MONDAY AND FRONT MOVG THROUGH...I FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE 60S AS ADVERTISED BY FWC ON MONDAY. CWF...GIVEN THE SCENARIO ABOVE...I WILL MAINTAIN TREND IN CURRENT MARINE PACKAGE WITH AT LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INCREASING TO SCA CONDITIONS BY THE AFTN. MEDIUM RANGE...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY WITH ANOTHER STRONG S/W TROUGH MOVG TROUGH AT THE UPR LVLS AND THUS IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PD. THICKNESSES BELOW 5400 M BEHIND TROUGH. ANOTHER STRONG LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF UPR LVL TROUGH BUT LOOK LIKES ANY WRAP AROUND MSTR WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING ANY PCPN INTO THE FCST. PRELIM AMG 43/65/47/54 0474 SSI 45/64/49/56 0474 JAX 44/70/53/55 0365 GNV 39/74/54/56 0255 18 .JAX... GA...RED FLAG WARNING ALL AREAS THIS AFTN. FL...RED FLAG WARNING ALL AREAS THIS AFTN. SANTOS fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 945 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2000 CURRENTLY...COLD START TO THE DAY AS SOME INTERIOR AG SITES BOTTOMED OUT IN TH U20S-L30S..WITH MOST AIRPORT STATIONS M-U30S EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS FPR. SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS A FEW CI STREAMERS BRUSHING NORTH FL ATTM WITH THICKER AC/AS/CS STAYING WELL TO THE NW. MARINE STRATO-CU CONFINED TO THE GULF STREAM...AND NOT ALL THAT EXTENSIVE ATTM. LOOKING AT 12Z RAOBS...EXTRAPOLATED H85 TEMP AT XMR SUPPORTS A FULL SUN MAX OF 68-70F TODAY...SO ADDING/SUBTRACTING A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPS TO THE SOUTH/NORTH PUTS IT RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT PUBLIC FORECAST. NIL FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT SE... ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 5-7KTS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHREDS OF STRATO-CU AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS APPROACH MAXES AND SHALLOW MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. HIGHER CLOUDS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR CWA. FORECAST LOOKS FINE AND ASIDE FROM A HALF CAT TEMP TWEAK...SEE NO NEED FOR CHANGES. MARINE...WINDS AOB 5KT WILL COME AROUND TO SE TODAY. WILL TWEAK DIRECTION ON FORECAST...AND MAY TACK ON A FOOT TO COMBINED SEAS IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL SWELL. FIRE WX...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY NOON. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS DEVELOPING BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE VERY SLOW... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. 12Z RUC SHOWS VERY LOW RH VALUES (15-20%) SPREADING DOWN THE INTERIOR/WESTERN PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE IS LIKELY OVERDONE...LIKE THE TREND AND PLACEMENT. WILL WATCH OBS BUT AM THINKING RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS FOR LOW RH DURATIONS. .MLB...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE...SEMINOLE... ORANGE AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTIES. CRISTALDI fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 950 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2000 A VERTICAL CROSS SECTION OF THE LATEST RUC MODEL DATA WAS TAKEN FROM WEST OF ATLANTA TO THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. IT SHOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING FROM JUST NORTH OF ATLANTA TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY 7 AM. MEANWHILE... LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS IS AHEAD OF THE NEXT MINOR SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING FROM MS INTO AL. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS FREEZING RAIN... SOMETIMES MIXED WITH SLEET. THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORY WILL BE COMBINED INTO AN ICE STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF GEORGIA...IN VIEW OF A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING FROM ALABAMA AND THE EXPECTED SLOW CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION. .ATL...ICE STORM WARNING TONIGHT FOR NORTH GEORGIA...EXTENDING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. SCHAUB ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 324 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2000 MAIN CONCERN IN SHORT TERM WILL BE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TEMPS ACRS REGION THROUGH MONDAY AM. SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT HVY SNOW BAND STRETCHED FROM SERN MO...NEAR NEW MADRID...THEN EAST TO MURRAY...CADIZ AND ELKTON IN WRN KY. SN AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 3-5 INCHES AS A RULE. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER ON SUN...THESE LOCATIONS WL SEE A GOOD DROP IN TEMPS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORNING. FURTHER NORTH ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...SN AMOUNTS WERE GENLY THREE INCHES OR LESS. FROM THE RUC TO THE AVN...ALL MODELS APPEARED TO OPEN THE LOW LEVEL SFC-850 LOW ACRS OK TOO QUICKLY AND MOVE IT EASTWARD ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AS OF 20Z...MAIN 850 MB TROF CONTINUE TO DRAG SLOWLY SE...STRETCHING FROM SPI...SW TRHOUGH S CNTRL MO AND ARCING BACK INTO NERN OK. CAA AND LOW LEVEL MSTR WL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE LONGER THAN FORECAST BY MODELS...SO LEFT CLOUDS IN OVERNIGHT. WEAK LIFT BEHIND WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER MID TN COULD KEEP SOME -SN /FLURRIES/ ACRS SWRN IN AND W KY /EAST OF THE LAND BTWN THE LAKES/ THIS EVENING. WITH THE CLOUDS AND GRADUAL INCRS IN CAA OVERNIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD ONLY FALL ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES. ETA/NGM/AVN SUGGEST A MIX OF CLOUDS ON SUN AFTN/EVE...WITH AN ELONGATED ZONE OF CHANNELED VORTICITY/WEAK LIFT/MSTR BTWN 850-700 MB. WITH THIS IN MIND...MENTIONED SNOW FLURRIES ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN A TRACE IN THE NRN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WL LEAVE AS FLURRIES FOR NOW. MAIN CONCERN WL BE TEMPS SUN NIGHT. GIVEN ANY REMAIN SNOW COVER AND CLEARING OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WL DROP SHARPLY UNDER LIGHT/NO WIND CONDITIONS NEAR CENTER OF HIGH PRESS IN AREA. DROPPED TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS ZONE PACKAGE. WL SEE HOW ETA/RUC INCORPORATE REMAINING SN COVER IN MODEL ACRS FORECAST AREA IN FUTURE RUNS. ALTHOUGH IT IS A SMALL CHANCE...INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW ON TUE. THIS IS IN LINE WITH ADJACENT FORECAST PACKAGES. DUE TO LIMITED INFLUX OF MSTR AT LOW LEVELS...SHOULD BE A MINOR EVENT ATTM. OTHERWISE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS JUXTAPOSITION OF JET STREAM AND CAA SHOULD REMAIN NEAR FA. .PAH...NONE. SMITH ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 850 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2000 SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE PROVIDING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...LOOK FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AND MOVE NORTHEAST BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST ON MONDAY. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE SOUTH TO ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL FAIRLY TIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE ATTM...BUT EXPECT IT TO SLOWLY RELAX AS PER RUC/MESOETA WIND FIELDS SUGGEST LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SAT IMAGERY INDICATING SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY UPSTREAM OF NORTHERN MAINE THUS WILL FORECAST BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OR PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN AREAS AND CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS CURRENTLY AOB ZERO ACROSS THE CWA ATTM. AS WINDS SLOWLY RELAX WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH CURRENT FORECAST MINS ESPECIALLY WITH NEW FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE. OTHER THAN COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD OVERALL FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. COASTAL WATERS...BASED ON CURRENT BUOY REPORTS WILL CONTINUE GALES THIS PACKAGE BUT EXPECT TO DROP BLO GLW AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND RIDGE BUILDS EAST. .CAR...WIND CHILL WARNING ZONES 1>6/10/11 OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORY ZONES 15>17/29/30 OVERNIGHT. GLW. FITZSIMMONS me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 955 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2000 THE LATEST APX 88D SHOWING AN AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW OVER EAST UPPER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SOME WEAKENING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO WISCONSIN. APX AND GRB 88D'S SHOWING A SECOND BAND OF SNOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH HAS FORMED ALONG A COLD FRONT IN EAST WISCONSIN AND AN AREA OF 700/500 MB DPVA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT... THEN MOVING INTO NORTHEAST LOWER AROUND DAWN. RUC AND MESO ETA DATA SHOWING THE BEST 850/700 AND 850/500 MB QVECTOR FORCING AND 700/500 MB DPVA TO BE LOCATED OVER THE STRAITS AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH 09Z. MESO ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WESTERN STRAITS AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BEGINNING TO DRY AT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS... GENERALLY ABOVE 700 MB...BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. MOISTURE BETWEEN 1000/850 MB IS PROGGED TO REMAIN AROUND 80 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -15C AND -17C OVER NORTHWEST LOWER AND EAST UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z SUNDAY. 1000 MB AND 925 MB WINDS TURN FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE COUNTIES AND MACKINAC COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER THE STRAITS AND EAST UPPER MICHIGAN...WILL LEAVE HIGHER CHANCES THERE WITH CHANCE POPS OR FLURRIES FOR THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AS SYNOPTIC FORCING WEAKENS AND THE BEST LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS ARE NOT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. .APX...NONE. SWR mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 838 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2000 LATEST 88D IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS VALIDATED BY SURFACE OBS... WHICH SHOW LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES. ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME 850-700MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT... DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN... WITH LITTLE TO NOTHING IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND AFTER 04Z. HOWEVER... THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES PRESENT ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM. LOOKING AT THE LATEST RUC... AND HOURLY SOUNDING FORECASTS FROM THE 18Z ETA... THERE APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW OF TIME BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z WHERE THERE COULD BE A HETEROGENEOUS NUCLEATION PROBLEM. MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME IS CONFINED NEAR AND BELOW THE -10C ISOTHERM... WITH NO MID LEVEL SEEDING DECK ALOFT. DURING THAT SAME TIME... THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN RH LEVELS BELOW 5K FEET... AS MOISTURE TRIES TO FEED NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL... WHICH COULD HELP TO SQUEEZE SOME OF THIS MOISTURE OUT IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE LATEST 3.9 MICRON IMAGERY IS A BIT TROUBLING AS WELL... SHOWING MAINLY WATER CLOUD AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... WITH THE LAST VESTIGES OF ICE CLOUD MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AT THIS TIME. THE PROMISING THING IS THAT THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO REPORTS OF ANY PCPN OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE ONLY PCPN IS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN... CLOSER TO THE LEAD VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. THAT PCPN IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT... AND IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW... WITH SUFFICIENTLY COLD TEMPERATURES PRESENT WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER. SO... THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME... WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST... AND JUST MENTION A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SOUTH AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN TO SETUP ONCE AGAIN AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK... AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DIP BENEATH -12C AND THE FLOW WITHIN THE CBL BECOMES WESTERLY. FROM LOOKING AT THE 18Z ETA AND THE LATEST RUC... IT APPEARS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS... SO SEE NO NEED AT THIS POINT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN LES ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT FOR SOME COUNTIES... BUT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT GET A LOOK AT THE 00Z MODELS TO MAKE THAT DETERMINATION. TRH .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 230 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2000 ...A SLGHT CHNC OF FREEZING RAIN IN FAR NW CWA POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE RAIN ELSEWHERE ACRS THE CWA THRU SUN NIGHT... MODELS SIMILAR THRU 30 HRS WITH ETA FASTER TO FINISH. ETA STILL MODEL OF CHOICE AS NGM/AVN HAVING SOME DIFFICULT WITH SFC FEATURES. ALL MODELS BRING PCPN THRU SUN NIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF NOREASTER OF THE CAPE. UPPER S/W EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP A PROGRESSIVE AND WET FORECAST GOING. FOR TONIGHT...STILL OPTIMISTIC THAT SFC TEMPS/WETBULB0 WILL REMAIN ABOVE 32F FOR ALMOST ALL CFWA. EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR NW COUNTIES.. SPECIFICALLY DARLINGTON...MARLBORO...DILLON...ROBESON AND BLADEN COUNTIES. ETA IS ONLY MODEL TO LOWER SFC TEMPS LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW RAIN TO FREEZE. HOWEVER...THE LAYER IS SO PATHETICALLY THIN THAT ANY RAIN FALLING THRU THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE H95-H90 LAYER SHOULD ALLOW LITTLE IF ANY RAIN TO FREEZE. NGM A BIT COOLER IN THIS LAYER...BUT WARMER AT SFC. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. BUT ETA HAS BEST HANDLE ON SFC TEMPS ATTM. INVERTED SOUNDING WITH DRY LAYER BLW H70. CURRENTLY VERY DRY AT SFC WITH AREA DWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. LAYER SHOULD BECOME MORE SATURATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ISSUE SPS FOR POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES...WITH FREEZING RAIN THE MAIN THREAT. WAA ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP PCPN IN FORM OF RAIN THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT...OCCASIONAL RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL COUNTIES...50% INLAND. WET AND COOL TREND TO CONTINUE AS INTO FIRST HALF ON NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY WILL FOLLOW COOLER FAN GUID THRU PACKAGE. CWF: DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE INITIAL WND DIR AS IMSAS SHOWING DEVLPG LOW OFF SC COAST. WNDS AT EDISTO BUOY SE ARD 10 KT WHILE FRYING PAN IS NE AT 15 KT. RUC INITIALLY REPRESENTS WNDS FIELD THRU 06Z. AFTER WILL BLEND ETA AND NGM WND FIELDS WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVLP ON SUN. ILM RC 037/050 042/049 026 35687 FLO RC 034/048 038/046 025 35685 MYR RC 036/051 041/047 026 35487 .ILM...NONE. JFP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 914 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2000 DISC: 01Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HI PRES HANGING ON ALNG THE ERN SHORE TO ERN CAROLINAS. LOW PRES WL TO OUR W ACRS TX/LA. SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF CLDS STREAMING ENEWD ACRS THE AREA. LCL RADAR AND REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWING PCPN STRETCHING FROM AL EWD ACRS NRN GA AND THE NRN 2/3RDS OF SC INTO SRN NC. OBS AND REPORTS INDICATE SNOW STILL FALLING ACRS THE NRN PTN...LANC AND CHES COUNTIES...OF THE CWA WITH A MIX OF SLEET AT TIMES. A MIX OF SLEET AND RAIN AND SOME FREEZING RAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA...MAINLY NEWBERRY...FAIRFIELD AND KERSHAW CTS. HAVE HAD SOME SLEET HERE AT CAE ALNG WITH SOME RAIN AND EVEN A FLAKE OR TWO. TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S N TO NR 40 S. TDS IN THE 20S MOST AREAS. CHECKING OBS TO THE W...AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE WARMING SOMEWHAT AT MOST REPORTING AREAS INDICATING MORE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET. TEMPS STILL RATHER COLD TO OUR W...MAINLY IN THE LWR 30S ACRS NRN GA...BUT WARM IN TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ACRS MS/AL. EVENING RUC SHOWING A COUPLE OF S/W TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS THICKNESS SLOWLY INCREASE. RUC ALSO SHOWING GOOD H8 WARMING THRU MID. WL CONT WITH THE WARNING FOR THE EXTREME NRN COUNTIES AND THE ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS N OF THE COLUMBIA METRO AREA. THINK THE CONDITIONS IN THOSE AREAS WL CONT TO GET WORSE BEFORE THEY GET BETTER OVERNIGHT. .CAE...WINTER STORM WARNING SCZ015-016. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SCZ020-021-022. LCV sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 903 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2000 APRS WM FNT EXTENDS FM A SFC LOW ABT 50 NM ESE OF CHS OFF THE SC CST...TO JUST S OF THE FA ACRS SE GA. RUC MODEL INDICATES FNT SHUD MOVE NWD ACRS MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT EXCEPT BECOME ORIENTED ACRS FAR INLAND SC PART DURG THE EARLY MORN...WITH WEDGE HANGING ON TOUGH ACRS THIS AREA TNGT. THEREFORE AGREE WITH PREV FCSTR THAT TEMPS MAY INDEED WARM MOST SXNS AS LIGHT SLY WINDS TAKE HOLD ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP CHC POPS ACRS FA OVERNIGHT AS RADAR SHOWS PRECIP GRDLY APCHG OR MOVG INTO NW AND N CNTYS ATTM AND THEREFORE NOT QUALIFY PRECIP CHCS AFT MDNGT ACRS THIS AREA WITH RA ON THE DOORSTEP. WITH DPTS LWR ACRS NRN AND WRN ZONES...MAINLY LOW TO MID 20S...CUD SEE A LTL EVAP COOLING INITIALLY AS PRECIP STRUGGLES TO REACH THE GROUND. EXPECT MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN THE 35 TO 40 RANGE AND DON'T EXPECT ANY MIXTURE OF SLEET AT THIS TIME FOR NRN SC CNTYS. MIN TEMP FCST OVERNIGHT LOOKS VERY GOOD AND DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY CHGS. ANY CHGS IF ANY WILL LIKELY BE MNR WIND TWEAKS. CWF...TROF OFF THE COAST IS PLAYING WITH WIND DIRECTIONS SOMEWHAT. WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME MINOR WORDING CHANGES FOR INITIAL CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS. SPEEDS ARE LOOKING FINE. .CHS... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. JAC/MJR sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 938 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2000 VSBL STLT INDICATES VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING E OVER THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH THICKER ALTOCUMULUS MOVING RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. INCREASING CLOUDS/MOSTLY CLOUDY ON TARGET FOR THIS AFTN WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE MID OR UPPER 40S MANY AREAS. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT COMBO LATER TDA...BUT WITH STRONG SFC WEDGE IN PLACE...PLAN TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPS (ESECIALLY INLAND) A CATEGORY TO COMPENSATE. 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS INDICATE VERY DRY AIR BLO H7 EVEN BACK TO KFFC...EXPECTING PRECIP TO REMAIN ALF THIS AFTN. CWF...WINDS CURRENTLY RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE BUOYS. PILOT BOAT REPORT OF NE 12 TO 15 KT AND 2 FT SEAS AT 9AM. EXPECT COASTAL TROF OFF OF FL TO DEVELOP FRTHR N THIS AFTN WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS ON THE SC WATERS NE THIS AFTN. WILL GO WITH N WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE OVER THE GA WATERS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FINAL LOCATION OF COASTAL TROF PARTICULARLY IF RUC AND MESOETA ARE TOO QUICK TO DEVELOP THIS FEATURE. SEAS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THIS AFTN. .CHS... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. RVT/SLF sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 255 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2000 MAIN CHALLENGES TONIGHT ARE FOR STRENGTH OF WINDS...TEMPS...AND CLOUD COVER. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CENTER OF LOW OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM PROGS. VIS LOOP SHOWS LOW CENTER VERY WELL...AS WELL AS CLOUD STREETS OVER E ND ASSOC WITH A FAIRLY STRONG L/L WIND FLOW. ANALYSIS SHOWS TIGHTEST GRADIENT REMAINING TO NORTH. DESPITE THE GRADIENT THOUGH...WINDS IN 20-35 MPH RANGE COMMON OVER N 1/2 OF CWA. EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...WITH CAA...SEEING 20-30 MPH WINDS. GUIDANCE NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THESE WINDS TODAY. WILL CONTINUE WINDY CONDITIONS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS LOW CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE EAST. AS FOR CLOUDS...MOSTLY LOWER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LAPS SOUNDING NEAR ABR SEEMS TO INDICATE BEST MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT TODAY...ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF MAJOR FEATURES. WV LOOP OVERLAID WITH LATEST RUC SHOWS MAIN VORT CENTER OVER NW MN AT 20Z...WITH A FEW OTHER MINOR VORT MAXIMA UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...MID AND UPPER LEVELS UPSTREAM LOOK FAIRLY DRY...AND ETA/AVN SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ABOVE H85. MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT H85 A DIFFERENT STORY HOWEVER. BOTH ETA AND AVN CONTINUE TO CARRY 80 PERCENT RH OR BETTER THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST PD MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY N AND E CWA. IN ABSENCE OF DECENT UVV OR DEEPER MOISTURE...SEE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP...OTHER THAN PSBL FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT WILL UNDERCUT BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO DUE TO COMBINATION OF SNOW COVER...AND CAA TONIGHT. ...EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION... MRF...ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS FOR TUE-THU PD. CWA APPEARS TO BE IN A DEVELOPING SPLIT IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH MOST ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAINING TO N AND S. A FAIRLY STRONG U/L TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT LOOKS QUITE DRY. NOGAPS AND CANADIAN SUGGEST STRENGTHENING WINDS FOR WED/THU...BUT MRF SHOWS WEAKER GRADIENT...THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW. MRF AND CANADIAN ALSO SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN W AND SW CWA LATE WED AND EARLY THU...BUT THEN PUSH SFC LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WELL TO SOUTH. WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THIS AFTN'S PMDEPD SEEMS TO AGREE ON SRY SCENARIO FOR MIDWEST AS WELL. FMR TEMPS LOOK OK...BUT MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD IN AREAS OF SN COVER...WHICH SHOULD NOT MELT OFF SIGNIFICANTLY. .ABR...NONE. LORENS sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 955 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2000 LATEST RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW ONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING QUICKLY FROM W TO E THRU CENTRAL NC. THIS AREA MATCHES UP WELL WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IN THIS MORNINGS ETA RUN...WHICH SHOWS UP AS A MAX/MIN COUPLET IN THE 18Z 500 MB VORTICITY MESOETA FIELDS. ANOTHER AREA OF RETURNS... MOSTLY VIRGA...SHOWING UP OVER WV...NRN VA...AND SRN PA. THIS AREA OF PRECIP SITUATED IN FAVORABLE 300 MB JET ENTRANCE REGION...AS PER LATEST RUC 300 MB ISOTACH GRIDS. BAND OF PRECIP FM SC W THRU NRN AL ASSOC WITH OVERRUNING OVER FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED SOUTH OF THAT BAND. FCAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT...WHAT ARE PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...AND ON SUN. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE LITTLE PRECIP FOR THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRECIP OVER NC EXITING OUT TO SEA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW NOW REPORTED JUST W OF WRN COUNTIES...ASSOC WITH NRN STREAM JET MAX...AND SOME OF THIS COULD MOVE ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...NOW OVER MISSISSIPPI. MODELS DO MOVE THIS FEATURE ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND SUN...WHICH CAUSE MODEL PRECIP SHIELDS TO BULGE NWD INTO THE CWA EARLY ON SUN. THIS COULD CAUSE PRECIP TO CREEP INTO SRN COUNTIES ON SUN...AS IT DID IN THIS MORNINGS NGM AND AVN RUNS. AFTER COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES CONTINUING THEIR ADVISORIES...AND STILL THE PROSPECT OF LIGHT AMTS OF WINTRY PRECIP...WILL LEAVE HEADLINES UP FOR OUR CWA...BUT DOWNPLAY AMTS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE FINAL DECISION ABOUT KEEPING OR DROPPING ADVISORIES FOR SUN. MARINE...NO CHGS ANTICIPATED. .AKQ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALL CWA...EXCLUDING FAR SE VA AND ERN NE NC...OVERNIGHT AND SUN. REILLY va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 315 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2000 ...EXTENT OF SNOW MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM... MAIN UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIFT AHEAD OF IT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF TROUGH QUITE STEEP AND RADAR ECHOES HAVE INDICATED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES, CONFIRMED BY HUMAN-TYPE REPORTS FROM NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CWA. WHILE ONE MIGHT INFER FROM 00Z MODELS THAT PRECIP SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON, LATEST RUC AND OBSERVED SW- STILL IN NEBRASKA WOULD INDICATE CHANCES LINGERING LONGER AND WILL WORD ACCORDINGLY. BEST CHANCE OF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WOULD BE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WITH STRONGEST LIFT. STILL, THIS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...OTHERWISE WILL MENTION FLURRIES. MODELS INDICATE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS TUESDAY AFTERNOON DRY. NGM/AVN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES EERILY SIMILAR AND WILL FOLLOW, OR SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT THEM. .TOP...NONE GDP ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 240 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2000 COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF I-20 WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH TODAY AS VORT OUT OF COLORADO WINDS UP WHILE DROPPING SE. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAXES OUT IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT SO WILL LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT WINDS FROM NORTH AT 10 TO 15. MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING DESPITE 850 MB ZERO LINE WELL INTO LA BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH ALSO SPREADS INTO AREA. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY EXCEPT FOR THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE. MODELS ACTUALLY ATTEMPTING LIGHT RETURN FLOW RED RIVER OF TX/OK BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT WILL LEAVE AS VARIABLE. THUS...TEMP REBOUND MONDAY MAY EXCEED MODEL EXPECTATIONS SLIGHTLY. WILL LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT LIGHT RAIN SE PORTIONS TODAY DESPITE SPARSENESS OF EVEN SPRINKLES ON SATURDAY... BUT WITH RUC EVOLUTION OF VORT MOVING EAST ACROSS TX...WON'T BE ANY CONCERN EXCEPT FOR EARLY. OTHER FACTOR TO MONITOR IS SOUTHWARD MIGRATION OF CLOUDS IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR TONIGHT. AT LEAST MODELS AGREE WITH KEEPING ASSOCIATED PCPN NORTH OF AREA. FINALLY...WILL PUT IN PATCHY MORNING FOG FOR AR/OK THIS MORNING DUE TO TRENDS FURTHER NORTH IN AR AND POSSIBLE ADVECTION AND/OR CLEARING SKIES. SHV 63/36/60/29 2000 TYR 66/33/65/34 0000 MLU 58/37/57/29 2000 LFK 70/38/63/30 2000 TXK 56/33/58/30 0010 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 230 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2000 FOCUS TODAY IS ON TEMPS AND WORDING FOR COLD POCKET SNOW SHOWERS. UPR TROF AND SFC LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE E ACRS LK SUPR. JET IN NRN PTNS OF SASK AND MANITOBA IS PLUNGING A COLD POOL DOWN OVR THE DLH CWA. NOSE OF THE JET HAS A VORT CENTER DEPICTED BY THE RUC BUT IT IS NOT CLEARLY SHOWN YET ON THE W/V IMAGERY. ANOTHER VORT MAX IS DEPICTED MOVING OVR LK SUPR ATTM AND HAS SOME ENERGY PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE LK AND S SHORE AREAS. CAA CONTINUES TODAY AS THE 850 CD POCKET SETTLES IN WITH -22C. PROGS DO AN ADEQUATE JOB OF DEPICTING ASSOCD SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 285K SFC IS DEPICTED TO BEGIN IN THE AFTN AS THE FIRST HINT OF WAA MOVES IN FROM THE W. SO WE'LL MENTION AFTN SNOW SHOWERS. IT SHOULD BE WINDY AS WELL AND WIND CHILLS COULD BE NUDGING ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE WILL LET THAT ADVISORY TERMINATE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL MENTION SOME FORENOON WIND CHILLS. BY AFTN THAT SHOULD EASE UP A BIT. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BUT NEXT CD POCKET WILL COMMENCE MORE DOWN GLIDE FOR MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CD FNT. GDNC TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AND NO REASON TO DEPART SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THAT. .DLH...NONE. CS mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 945 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2000 ONGOING LES OVER W FA REQUIRING HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING IMPRESSIVE LES AFFECTING PARTS OF ONTONAGON...HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS DEEP WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS NEAR -30C. USING 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KINL AND KGRB INDICATES DEPTH OF CONVECTION EXTENDS TO THE 15K-17K FT RANGE. VILLAGE OF ONTONAGON HAD PERIOD OF ZERO VSBY AS ONE BAND PASSED. SPOTTER REPORTS GENERALLY INDICATING 4 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT. SFC/MARINE OBS SHOWING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONV OVER W LK SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...AND 12Z RUC MAINTAINS THIS LOW-LEVEL CONV THRU THE DAY. DEEP MOISTURE SHOWN ON KINL AND CYPL SOUNDINGS WILL CONTINUE TO AID LES. WILL BE UPGRADING TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR ONTONAGON...HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES. .MQT...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT MIZ001>003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MIZ006>007. ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC 1030 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2000 MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA STILL SITTING RIGHT ON EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM FOR THIS AFTERNOON. 50H TROUGH APPROACHING FROM WEST HAS ENHANCED EFFICIENCY OF STRONG INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE OVERIDING COLD SURFACE AIR. CONCEPTUAL MODELS OF SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ARE PANNING OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF AREA WHERE BOTH RUC AND MESO ETA INDICATE GREATEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR. HOWEVER SATELLITE INDICATES RIPPLES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE ENHANCING PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. AREAS HAVING GREATEST THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ICING THIS AFTERNOON EXTEND FROM LEXINGTON-ALBEMARLE AREA EAST ACROSS THE TRIANGLE TO THE ROCKY-MOUNT WILSON AREA. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR MOSTLY RAIN WILL FALL WHILE NORTH ALONG THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE PERIODS OF SNOW SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL FALL. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF AREA THROUGH 5PM. WILL DROP WARNING FOR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM NEAR WADESBORO ACROSS FAYETTEVILLE TO THE GOLDSBORO AREA. FOR SURROUNDING WFOS...OUR PROPOSED WSW IS NOW IN WWA. .RAH...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SWH nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1000 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2000 ONLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MARLBORO...ROBESON AND BLADEN COUNTIES HAVE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE WSW SETS TO EXPIRE AT 11AM. ETA AGAIN MODEL OF CHOICE AND BRINGS WARMER AIR (4C) AT H90 ACROSS THESE COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTN. THE RAIN FALLING THROUGH THIS MODERATE TEMPERATE ZONE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FREEZING ON CONTACT WITH SURFACE. TEMPS BELOW GUID FOR THIS AFTN. WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES CRNT FCST TEMPS TO ADJUST FOR VARIATION FROM COAST TO INLAND COUNTIES. SLIGHT SHIFT IN WND DIR BUT WILL KEEP LIGHT. CWF: INVERTED SFC TROF JUST OFF THE COAST ALLOWING VARIABILITY IN WNDS AT AREA BUOYS. THE BEST I CAN INTERPOLATE...WNDS ARE GENERALLY COMING ARND TO NE 10 KTS OR LESS WEST OF THE TROF AXIS. RUC KEEPS NE ACRS THE AREA BEFORE TURNING NNW THIS EVENING. ONLY CHANGES TO CRNT FORECAST WILL BE PROVIDING SOME WIND DIR. .ILM...NONE JFP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1013 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2000 PLAN ON UPDATING THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WITH HELP FROM THE LATEST RUC AND MESO-ETA DATA. ON THE WEATHER MAP EARLY THIS MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... THAT EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM DEEPER LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO END ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON...AND COME TO AN END ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO...WILL KEEP THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY GOING IN SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON (FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LITTLE ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION)...ELSEWHERE THEY WILL BE CANCELLED. DON/T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH WARMING TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES OVERCAST...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH (INCLUDING MOUNTAINS) TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. .MRX... NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. TN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON CANCELLED FOR THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON CANCELLED. DM tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 956 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2000 MIXED BAG OF PRECIP CONTG TO ENHANCE ACROSS FOOTHILL/PIEDMONT CTYS OF SRN VA AND NW NC THIS MORN. LUCKILY RADAR TRENDS INDICATE BACK EDGE OF SIG FZRA NOW ARND MWK IN NW NC AND EXPECT IMPROVING CONDS TO GRDLY WORK EWD THROUGH EARLY AFTN. WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONT WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR FAR SE ZONES PENDING RELEASE TIME ECHOES...OTRW PLAN TO TRIM OFF ZONES WEST OF A LYH TO MTV TO MWK LINE IN THIS UPDATE. LATEST RUC DOES HANG ON TO A BIT MORE PRECIP SE CORNER THAN THE EARLIER MESO-ETA AND THIS MAY NOT BE TOO BAD GIVEN SHEAR AXIS NOW JUST CROSSING THE WRN MTNS. OTRW OTHER THAN FOR A FEW LINGERING PRDS OF -SN NW NC...APRS CAN GO WITH MNLY CLDY/COLD ELSW THIS AFTN WITH BEST SWATH OF PRECIP REMAINING SOUTH CLOSER TO NEXT WEAK SFC WAVE. APCHG UPR TROF SHOULD FINALLY PUSH DEEPER RH TO THE COAST THIS EVE WITH ONLY SCT SNOW SHWRS OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CD FRONT. TEMPS GNRLY ON TRACK AND EXPECT ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. .RNK VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY VAZ043-044-045-046-058-059 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WV...NONE. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NCZ004-005-006 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. JH va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 152 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2000 LOCAL FCST CONCERNS THROUGH MON AM WILL DEAL WITH CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS EVENING CHC FOR -SN /FLURRIES/ ACRS SRN 1/2 OF CWA. FOR MON...DEGREE OF COLD AIR SC DEVELOPMENT WL DETERMINE ULTIMATE CLOUD COVER. FOR TUE...TRACE SNOW EVENT IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MINOR...BUT MEASURABLE /LESS THAN 0.10" WATER EQUIVALENT/ SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER SERN IL...SWRN IN AND NWRN KY DURING TUE AFTN AND EVENING. IN THE EXTENDED PKG...MRF SUGGEST CLOUDS INCREASING THURS NITE...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON FRI...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RUC...ALL MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING PERSISTANT CLOUDINESS OVER FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND AT MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH NGM/ETA/AVN INITIALIZED CLOSE TO UA FEATURES/PROFILERS/SATL PIX TODAY...AVN WAS THE BETTER MODEL IN AN OVERALL SENSE...ALBEIT DISPLACING FEATURES A LTL TOO FAR NORTH. DIFFICULT TO UTILIZE NGM SINCE SNOW COVER INPUT IS UNCERTAIN. DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND SNOW COVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TEMPERATURE FCST WL BE A NIGHTMARE. WL LIKELY SEE BUSTS IN TEMP FCST DUE TO THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CLOUDS AND SNOW COVER. SIMILIAR TO LAST NIGHT...FOG IS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY UNDER WEAK WINDS/CLEAR SKIES/MOIST PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON TUE. POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND FLURRIES WL BE THE LIKELY SCENARIO...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE WED THROUGH THU...WITH INCR CLOUDS THU NIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MSTR OVER SERN MO LATE THU FOR SNOW FLURRIES...BUT WL NOT MENTION IN PKG ATTM. THE SHOT OF ARTIC AIR SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CNTRL OK TO SGF ON THU NIGHT/FRI AM...WITH AN INVERTED TROF EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEFORMATION ALOFT WOULD PLACE AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA IN MEASURABLE SNOWFALL CHANCE CAT ON FRI...GIVEN INCRSING MSTR. WL WAIT AND SEE. WL LEAN TWD ETA/AVN TEMPS FOR MAX/MINS...BUT WL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS FOR EXPECTED CLOUD/SNOW COVER. .PAH...NONE. SMITH ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1005 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2000 CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. STLT AND PIREPS INDCT LOW CLDS ARE PRETTY THIN AND SHOULD BE BREAKING UP THIS AFTN. QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ETA AND THE LATEST RUC SHOW WK CAA OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTN. WITH CLDS AND CAA...TEMPS WL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE IN A HURRY UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN. PREV FCST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND. WL NOT BE UPDATING THE ZFP ATTM...BUT WL BE SENDING OUT A NEW NWR FCST TO CLEAN UP SOME WORDING BY 11AM. .FSD...NONE GILLISPIE sd EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON 230 PM PST SUN JAN 23 2000 MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF A SHEAR AXIS LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST...WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RISING IN THE NE HALF OF THE FCST AREA DESPITE NORTHEAST WINDS. THESE TWO FACTS LEAD ME TO RAISE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES. AREA RADARS ALSO SHOWING A FEW ELEVATED ECHOES NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA...SO WILL MENTION FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. STILL WAITING FOR THE MAIN SYSTEM LOCATED OFFSHORE FROM NRN CA TO AFFECT THE AREA STARTING LATE MON AFTN THROUGH TUE. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THE SYSTEM WILL RIDE UP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL AID PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE CHANCES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY ON TUE AFTN. 21Z RUC KEEPS LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN BY MON AFTN. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ON MON NGT AND TUE MRNG...BUT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN BETWEEN FOR THE BASIN AS COLD AIR CLINGS TO THE SURFACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES BY ON TUE...COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN AND LOW-MID LEVEL NNW FLOW SETS UP...GIVING A VERY FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR HEAVY SNOW IN ID ZONE 27 ON TUE NGT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. EXTENDED...STILL ENOUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST AND IDAHO PANHANDLE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AWH/LH ...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS... GEG 023/030/026/035 1245 CQV 018/030/024/032 0235 S86 016/028/020/032 0124 COE 022/030/025/034 1235 WWP 016/027/022/033 0125 LWS 031/038/032/041 3446 MOS 026/034/029/036 EAT 024/030/026/034 1453 .GEG...NONE. wa