AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 324 PM CST WED JAN 19 2000 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW IN NORTH MISSOURI. WITH THE SHORT-TERM STUFF...THE RUC MODEL HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS SO FAR TODAY. EXPECT THE SURFACE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK...BRINGING AN END TO THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HEALTHY COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ENSUE THIS EVENING OVER CWA AS 40 TO 50 KT WINDS AT 850 MB REACH THE SURFACE. OVERALL...THE BIG PROBLEM SHOULD BE TEMPERATURES THIS FORECAST CYCLE. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NEBRASKA SHOW A WHOLE LOTTA WIND. ALL OF THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE RUC AND ETA) SHOW STRONG WINDS AT 850 MB MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAVE A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES (BASICALLY WEST OF U.S. HWY 77) AND THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES BORDERING NEBRASKA. GIVEN WHAT WE'RE SEEING HERE ON THE MODELS...WILL PLAN ON HOISTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. UPDATE...AFTER PEERING AT THE EMPORIA ASOS...WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT THE ENTIRE CWA UNDER A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MID-EVENING. AFTER TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PINEAPPLE CONNECTION TO GET GOING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE UPPER-LEVELS WILL BRING PLENTY OF HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOME 850 MB WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE (AS ADVERTISED BY THE AVN AND NGM) MAY BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. WILL PLAN ON BRINGING CIRRUS-TYPE CLOUDS BACK TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES...THAT'S THE BIGGIE. WITH THE HEALTHY COLD AIR ADVECTION ANTICIPATED...THEORY SAYS THAT WE SHOULD GOOD COOLING TONIGHT. PROBLEM IS THE WINDS TONIGHT...AND HOW MUCH THIS WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION. FOR THE MOST PART WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE NEUTRAL ADVECTION. WINDS SHOULD BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD WARMER THAN TONIGHT'S...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY. PLAN ON LEANING A TAD MORE TOWARD THE FAN TRENDS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. .TOP...WIND ADVISORY KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. YOUR FORECAST CREW: 65/BUTTS ...UPDATED TO INCLUDE MORE COUNTIES IN WIND ADVISORY...DB ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 1033 AM CST TUE JAN 18 2000 SURFACE LOW ANALYZED BETWEEN NORFOLK AND LINCOLN NEBRASKA AROUND 15Z. ISALLOBARIC TRENDS SHOW THE GREATEST 3-HR. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE ST. JOE AND KC AREAS. IN LIGHT OF THIS...WOULD EXPECT THE LOW TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY INFO GLEANED FROM THE RUC2. CLEARING LINE BEHIND THE FRONT IMPINGING ON NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES AND REMOVE BECOMING IN THE FIRST PERIOD OVER THIS AREA. WILL ALSO FRESHEN THE WORDING JUST A TOUCH...AND TAKE A PEEK AT TEMPERATURES. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE CWA SOMEWHERE AROUND LUNCHTIME...THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. PROFILER DATA FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA SHOWS SPEEDS APPROACHING 50 KTS AT 850 MB. BELIEVE THAT THE RUC2 HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WINDS...WITH 850 MB WINDS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 50 KTS OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS TO HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY...AND MAYBE HOIST THE ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THANKS ICT/HSI FOR COORDINATION. 65/63 .TOP...NONE. ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 904 AM MST WED JAN 19 2000 UPDATED MORNING PACKAGE TO INCREASE WINDS. KGLD ALREADY GUSTING TO 35 MPH. LATEST RUC/RUCII/6Z ETA INDICATING BOUNDARY/850 WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE UNDER GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RED WILLOW PROFILER INDICATING 40 KTS AT 850MB. STRONG 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. FURTHER WEST...RUCII INDICATING THE SAME THING AS FAR AS WINDS WITH OTHER MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE LESS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPS SEEMED TO HAVE PEAKED OR ARE VERY CLOSE SO I WONT CHANGE THEM. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. .GLD...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST (6 PM CST) FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THEDE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 930 PM EST WED JAN 19 2000 WILL LEAVE HEADLINES ALONE WITH THIS UPDATE... AND ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WORDING. RECENT CALLS AROUND THE AREA INDICATE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN SINCE IT STARTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY... RADAR... AND SURFACE OBS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW MOVING STEADILY SOUTH AND EAST. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SYSTEM SNOW TO END BY 09Z... WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES IN MOST AREAS. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE DEPARTING AFTER 06Z... WITH 850-500MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY 09Z. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL RESULT IN TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA... ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH AMOUNTS. WILL CHANGE ADVISORY ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO 2 TO 5 INCHES TO COVER THINGS. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES STILL LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET... WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT PROVIDING THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL. THE 18Z ETA SHOWS WINDS BACKING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING UP AROUND 8K FEET THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING A FLOW OF AROUND 310 DEGREES WITHIN THE CBL FOR THIS EVENT... THE NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES (OTTAWA... KALAMAZOO... MUSKEGON) TO THE WARNING... AS WELL AS EXTEND THE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE ISSUES WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE 4AM ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE. A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY DETAILING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 915PM. ZONES WILL BE OUT AROUND 10PM. TRH .GRR...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR 5-9 INCHES TONIGHT/THURSDAY ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. SNOW ADVISORY FOR 2-5 INCHES TONIGHT FOR MUSKEGON/KENT/IONIA/OTTAWA/ BARRY/EATON/INGHAM/KALAMAZOO/CALHOUN/JACKSON COUNTIES. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1110 AM EST WED JAN 19 2000 ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT BANDING HAS ALL BY DISSIPATED ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...WITH SOME MINOR BANDING PERSISTING ACROSS ERN UPR MI ATTM. LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO AROUND 3 KFT...DRYING AT MID LEVELS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DISSORGANIZATION ACROSS NRN LOWER MI. ATTENTION TURNS TO SYNOPTIC SNOWS MOVING OUT OF MN INTO WI LATE THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I280) AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY. LATEST RUC AND FIRST LOOK AT THE NEW ETA RUN SHOWS MAJORITY OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND 850-700 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SLIDING S OF THE CWA OVER SRN WI AND SRN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREA OF SN OVER MN ATTM IS JUST A BIT FARTHER N THAN ANTICIPATED BY THE MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS S OF A LINE FROM TVC TO HARRISVILLE. WILL KEEP SCT SHSN FOR FAR NRN LOWER MI ZONES AS SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW PERSISTS WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY WHERE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL STAY AROUND 4 KFT AND IN PROXIMITY TO DEEPER...COLDER AIR... BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LESS LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO DISRUPT LAKE BAND ORGANIZATION. .APX...NONE. EME mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 300 PM CST WED JAN 19 2000 SHORT RANGE MODELS NOT DOING SO HOT IN HANDLING DOUBLE VORT STRUCTURE DEPICTED ON CURRENT W/V LOOP...BUT LATEST RUC OKAY. ETA CLOSEST OF THE BIG THREE...BUT STILL NOT FAR ENOUGH EAST WITH SECONDARY VORT PUSHING ACRS FAR NORTHWEST MN ATTM. MODELS LOOK TO CONSOLIDATE BOTH VORTS ACRS DVN CWA REGION FROM 00Z-06Z TONIGHT. MODELS UNDERESTIMATED INITIAL VORT STRENGTH OVER IA AND ASSOCIATED HEAVIER PRECIP BAND ACRS EAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL. MODELS KEYED MORE ON LESS INTENSE BAND ACRS SOUTHERN MN...BUT EVENTUALLY COALESCE PRECIP AREAS INTO ONE MAIN BAND ACRS FAR NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL IL BY 00Z THU. THIS LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY TRYING TO HAPPEN NOW...ALTHOUGH HEAVIER PRECURSOR BAND SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OF INCOMING MN SNOW. SHORT RANGE MODELS SIMILARLY MOVE SFC LOW TO A SOUTH OF STL POSITION BY 00Z. LOOKING AT LATEST SFC AND MSAS ANALYSIS AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACRS EAST CENTRAL MO...LOOKS LIKE THESE PROGS GENERALLY ON TRACK...MAYBE A BIT SOUTH. LATEST MSAS TRENDS ALSO SHOW INTENSE SFC PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET FROM EAST SD AND NE...TO EAST CENTRAL MO WITH STRONGEST SFC WINDS SURFING LEADING EDGE OF RISE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST NE. AGREE WITH KLOT AND DMX THAT STRONGEST WIND WIL FOLLOW INTENSE GRADIENT SOUTH ACRS MO...ALSO SOUTH OF HEAVIEST SNOW FALL. THUS WE SHOULD'NT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL STILL CREATE TROUBLE ACRS MUCH OF CWA. 88D MOSAIC ALSO SHOWING SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA SNOW DECREASING...IR LOOP SHOWS SOME WARMING AS WELL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN BEHIND VIGOROUS VORT WILL CONTINUE TO SHUT OFF PRECIP ACRS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 00Z. THUS WILL ISSUE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR AREAS WITH LINGERING FALLING SNOW AND DECENT SNOW COVER FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR BLOWING SNOW THREAT. EAST CENTRAL CWA MAY CONTINUE WARNING THIS EVENING AS LINGERING MAIN SNOW BAND OF INCH/HOUR RATES LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BRING THREAT OF 6 INCH TOTAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. SOUTHEAST IA...PRECIP HAS SHIFTED TO SLEET/RAIN AS SFC WARM PUNCH SWINGS ACRS THOSE AREAS... CUTTING DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS. NO HEADLINES THERE FOR NOW... ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS/CHILLS COULD BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS PACKAGE/S TREND WITH UNDER-CUTTING GUIDANCE... AS ARCTIC AIR NOT BEING HANDLED WELL WITH FRESH SNOW COVER THU NIGHT AND FRI. EXTENDED...BOTH EUROPEAN AND MRF AGREE ON SHIFTING LARGE ARCTIC HIGH EAST OF REGION ON SAT...WITH TEMPORARY SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETTING UP ALOFT. DVN CWA TO GET CAUGHT IN BETWEEN FLOWS AS MORE VIGOROUS VORTEX PASSES TO THE SOUTH IN SOUTHERN STREAM...AND NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SKIRTS ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA. MRF HINTS AT LIGHT SNOW ACRS CWA THOUGH EVEN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...FOR LATE SAT AND INTO SUN. MRF AND EURO THEN SWING ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM VORT ACRS FAR UPPER MIDWEST-NORTHERN GRT LKS ON MON. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF AREA AND WILL GO DRY/NO PRECIP. MRF TEMPS THRU EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TOO OPTIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY WITH PROJECTED SNOW COVER AND LINGERING ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...LEE SIDE OF HIGH-DVLPING SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ON MON WILL HELP TEMP RECOVERY. COORDINATED WITH...DMX...LOT...ILX...THANX. .DVN... IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT EASTERN/NORTHEAST IOWA. IL...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS EVENING IL CO 16-17-18...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT NORTHWEST IL...AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MO...NONE. JDH il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO ADD CCF INFORMATION... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 220 PM CST WED JAN 19 2000 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TONIGHT... WILL CONTINUE TREND OF FORECAST THAT WAS UPDATED AT 1 PM OF WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH OF A LINE FROM LEWISTOWN TO LINCOLN TO PARIS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WAS IN EASTERN IOWA FROM CEDAR RAPIDS TO THE QUAD CITIES. AT 20Z LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN NCENT MO...WITH THE GREATEAST PRESSURE FALLS AROUND AND JUST SOUTH OF STL. THIS MEANS THAT THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO BY 00Z...THEN RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN IL/WRN KY BY MIDNIGHT...WHICH THE RUC AND ETA HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON. THIS WOULD PUT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE ABOUT 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF I-74. THE SNOW IS ONLY HALF OF THE EQUATION...WHICH SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT PROBLEM COMES IN WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE 7 TO 10 PM TIME FRAME. THUS...WHATEVER SNOW FALLS WILL BLOW AND DRIFT SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE WARNED AREA WITH WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND WIND CHILLS CLOSE TO -30 UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. TO THE SOUTH...FOR JACKSONVILLE...SPI...SHELBYVILLE...AND EFFINGHAM WILL KEEP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. DOWN TOWARD FLORA AND LAWRENCEVILLE...AM EXPECTING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SRN IL. ON THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS...BLOWING SNOW AND COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT THEN THE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN UP AS SURFACE RIDGING IN THE PLAINS PUSHES TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON WITH LOWS AROUND ZERO IN CENT IL. THE COLD AND CLEAR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. COORDINATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH DVN/LOT/IND/LSX/PAH. SPI NU 015/020 003/023 005 23+00 PIA NU 011/018 000/021 000 23+00 DEC NU 015/020 003/022 005 23+00 CMI NU 011/018 902/020 902 23+00 MTO NU 015/021 002/022 004 23+00 LWV NU 019/025 007/027 008 23+00 .ILX...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A LEWISTOWN TO LINCOLN TO PARIS LINE ILZ027>031...036>038...041>046...053>057 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT INCLUDING RUSHVILLE...SPRINGFIELD SHELBYVILLE...EFFINGHAM AND NEWTON ILZ040-047>052-061>063-066>068. MILLER il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 158 AM CST THU JAN 20 2000 06Z SFC MAP SHOWED LOW PRES WAS OVER EAST KY...CLOSE TO 6HR PLACEMENT BY BOTH ETA/AVN 00Z MODEL RUNS. SATELLITE SHOWS WRAP AROUND STRATO-CU WAS ALONG AND EAST OF A KFAM TO KPOF LINE. ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA...THUS GUSTY NW WIND. MAIN FCST ISSUE IS TEMPERATURES IN ASSOC WITH ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING IN. ETA/AVN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL AND HAVE FOLLOWED. SHOULD REMAIN WINDY THIS MORNING...THEN THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN AS SFC HI REACHES SW MO AND GRADIENT RELAXES. STRONG LOW-LVL CAA TO CONTINUE. SO DESPITE A RETURN OF THE SUN...EXPECT TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH. THE ETA/AVN AND RUC ALL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN 925MB RH BY 18Z. THUS EXPECT THE STRATO-CU TO CLEAR EAST PARTS OF THE FA BY MIDDAY. FOR TONIGHT...SFC HI MOVES OVER THE FA...SO EXPECT EXCELLENT RADIATION WITH LIGHT WIND AND MODEL PROJECTION OF CLEAR SKIES. NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN TACT PER THE MODELS THRU FRI...AND AN EMBEDDED WAVE IS FCST BY THE AVN AND ETA TO DROP SE TOWARD THE AREA. ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE IS DECENT MID-LVL MSTR...SO WENT WITH PTSUNNY IN ZFP. BLENDED COOLER FAN WITH WARMER FWC TODAY...AND NOS CLOSE TONIGHT AND FRI...SO AN AVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED. .PAH...NONE. NOLES ky WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 300 AM MST THU JAN 20 2000 A WEDGE OF MILDER AIR ABOVE COLDER SURFACES RESULTING IN SPOTTY WINTRY MIX ACROSS ID. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE ID PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN WA MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST. ETA/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NOSE OF ABOVE ZERO AIR ALOFT OVERRUNNING COLDER SURFACES FROM CENTRAL ID WESTWARD...MT SOUNDINGS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS IDZ005>008 AND MAYBE INTO MTZ004 BUT MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW INTO MT ZONES. BEST ACCUMULATING PRECIP WELL WEST AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH PROBLEM ...HOWEVER ANY AMOUNT OF ZR- CAN QUICKLY BE PROBLEMATIC. MAIN VORT LOBE SWINGS THROUGH WESTERN MT THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING PRECIP TREND BEHIND. LARGE DRY SLOT ACROSS SOUTHERN OR IS FOLLOWING THE VORT LOBE AND SHOULD ALSO AID IN DECREASING PRECIP THIS MORNING. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO COASTAL AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON AND SPREADS MOISTURE EASTWARD ACROSS ID EARLY TONIGHT. CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES WESTERN MT INTO MOIST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY. EXTENDED...TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW SATURDAY WITH VARIOUS MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION. WILL HAVE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN MT SATURDAY AND JUST CLIPPING WEST OF THE DIVIDE. MAY HAVE SLIGHT COOLING FROM THIS FEATURE. SECOND WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A DRYING TREND INDICATED ON MRF AS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS WAVE. BOLDT mt CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 210 AM EST THU JAN 20 2000 BIG CHANGES UNDERWAY FOR PEOPLE WHO HAVE UP TO NOW BEEN ENJOYING A RATHER MILD-TRANQUIL WINTER. LAST WEEK OR SO WE HAVE BEEN UNDER A COLD FLOW REGIME AND IT LOOKS LIKE EVENTS ARE FINALLY COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR STORM...IF NOT FOR ALL OF THE ERN US...A PRETTY GOOD CHUNK OF THE NERN COAST AT LEAST. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST THREAT FOR THE BIGGEST SNOW WILL BE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENUF DYNAMICS TO DROP ACCUM SNOW OVER MOST OF NOT ALL OF CTRL PA BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN TWD MID DAY. SHORTWAVE WRAPPING UP TO A GALE OFF MARITIMES THIS EVENING HAS WORKED TO SUPPRESS WRN ATL RIDGE JUST ENUF TO MAKE FOR A NIGHTMARE FCST SCENARIO OVER NERN US COAST. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HUGE STORM...OR A HUGE BUST. STRONG SHORTWAVE IS DIVING DOWN OUT OF UPPER PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY A 150+ KT JET STREAK AND 200+M/12HR HGHT FALLS...AND IS HEADING FOR THE MID ATL COAST. UPPER HGHTS ALONG ERN SEABOARD HAVE STARTED A SMART REBOUND LENDING CREDIBILITY TO ETA FCST TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. DPROG/DT SHOWS ETA TRACK CREEPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY ABOUT 3 DEG. NGM AND AVN ALSO A TAD CLOSER...BUT NOT BY AS MUCH. ALL MODELS DEEPER BY SEVERAL MB IMPLYING LARGER MORE VIRILE CIRCULATION. MAIN EFFECTS LOCALLY WILL BE PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT WARM ADV SNOWS WHICH ARE STARTING OUT THE DOOR AS I TYPE...AND THEN SOME BITTER COLD AND WIND TO DEAL WITH INTO FRIDAY. PROBABLY NOT WINDY ENUF TO MEET CRITERIA FOR ADV/WARN..BUT WITH LOW TEMPS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE A CONCERN. WILL PROB ISSUE ADV FOR CHILL...ADV FOR LAKE SNOW AND KEEP THE ADV FOR WARM ADV SNOWS OVER SRN TIER THIS PKG. HAS THE WORKINGS OF A COMPLICATED SET OF ZONES. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL...EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKES LATER TODAY INTO FRI. OVERLAKE TRAJ IS PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY SHORT FOR MOST OF THAT PERIOD...BUT FOR A TIME LATER TODAY THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A CONNECTION OFF L HURON ONTO FAR NWRN ZONES. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE VERY LOW SO SHORT TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT BE ENUF TO PICK UP SUFF MOISTURE TO REALLY DO MUCH. HAVE CONSULTED WITH BUF/CLE AND THEY ARE LEANING TWD ADV SNOWS AND NOT WARNING. THIS LOOKS GOOD TO ME. A QUICK GLANCE AT 06Z SFC CHART SHOWS SFC PRESSURE FALLS STARTING TO ACCELERATE OVER CAROLINAS. LOWEST PRESSURES DOWN NEAR 1000MB...A GOOD 2-3MB LOWER THAN MOST OF THE MODEL FCSTS AT THAT TIME. THE RUC MANAGED A 1001 CENTER TO WIN THE PRIZE FOR BEST INITIALIZATION SO FAR. .CTP...SNOW ADVISORY...TODAY ZONES 24/33/34/35/36/64/65 LAKE SNOW ADV LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY WIND CHILL ADV TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MUCH OF WRN PA LA CORTE pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 938 PM EST WED JAN 19 2000 INITIAL WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIP CURRENTLY CROSSING CWA WITH ABUNDANT REPORTS OF SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE MTNS. SLEET HAS MIXED WITH RAIN IN NRN GREENVILLE CO AND NOW MIXING WITH RAIN ATTM IN CHEROKEE CO SC. SO FAR PRECIP IS FALLING AS EXPECTED AND IN LINE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR DIFFERENT PARTS OF CWA. THIS INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP IS MOISTENING UP THE ATMOSPHERE AND WILL BRING PROFILES TO A NEAR ISOTHERMAL STATE ACROSS THE CURRENT WARNING AREA. GSO SOUNDING PROFILE IN AGREEMENT WITH RUC AND 18Z ETA FORECASTS. ISENT LIFT TO GET GOING BETWEEN NOW AND 6Z...WITH MAIN DYNAMICS AND DIFF VORT ADVECTION CROSSING THE AREA 5Z-8Z. 850-700 LAYER A BIT UNSTABLE...SO EXPECT CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND DYNAMICAL COOLING TO OFFSET WARM ADVECTION...KEEPING PROFILES RELATIVELY STEADY STATE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. 1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK GOOD IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW/SLEET IN THE ADVISORY AREA...KEEPING ACCUMS DOWN. MAY BE TOUGHT TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS EXTREME SRN NC...BUT WILL LEAVE IT UP ANYWAY. SHOULD SEE ONLY RAIN ACROSS GA/SC THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SYSTEM MOVING VERY FAST AND WITH SFC DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN SE NC BY MORNING...PRECIP ENDS QUICKLY AFTER 9Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE NRN MTNS WHERE COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE FLOW/RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST. WILL LEAVE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF WARNING AND ADVISORY AS IS. WILL TWEAK SOME OF THE WORDING AND ADD THUNDER TO THE ZONES. GETTING SOME LDS HITS IN E TN AND THUNDER REPORTED IN NRN GREENVILLE CO RECENTLY. .GSP...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR NC NW PIEDMONT AND NRN FOOTHILLS. NCZ034>037-054>057. WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR NC NRN MOUNTAINS NCZ033-048>050. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR NC SRN PIEDMONT/SRN FOOTHILLS/CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS. NCZ051>053-059-063>072. MOYER sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 857 PM EST WED JAN 19 2000 DISC: 01Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES OVR IL/IN. HI PRES MOVG WELL OFF THE CST. SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF CLDS OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE COUNTRY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS NICE AREA OF RAIN MOVG EWD ACRS THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE AND WL OVERRUN THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE VERY QUICKLY. COMPARING 12Z RUN WITH 00Z RUC RUN...APPEARS THAT SFC LOW IS A BIT FASTER AND FARTHERN N THAN EARLIER MODELS RUNS HAD IT AT 00Z. DON'T THINK THAT WL HAVE TOO MUCH AFFECT ON THE FCST FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WL CONT WITH RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND CURRENT FCST FOR MINS AGREES WELL WITH CURRENT TEMPS AND TDS. OBS DO SHOW AIRMASS TO BE A BIT COLDER ACRS THE NRN AND NERN PTN OF OUR CWA...BUT WL REMOVE MENTION OF POSS IP AND SN AT THE ONSET...SINCE PCPN ALREADY THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. .CAE...NONE. LCV sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1145 AM CST THU JAN 19 2000 THIS IS LATE...BUT HERE NEVER THE LESS. UPDATED ZONES EARLIER TO CONDUCT A GENERAL CLEAN-UP GIVEN CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS AS DEPICTED MOSTLY BY RUC MODEL AND SAT/RADAR LOOPS. BIGGEST CONCERNS NOW FOR WINDS AND TEMPS...AND RESULTANT BS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW WC'S. 17Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS TIGHTEST GRADIENT NOW MOVING OFF TO SE OF ABR CWA...AND WINDS BEGINNING TO SLACKEN GENERALLY NW TO SE ACROSS AREA. WINDS PICKED UP FAR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLIER...SO STILL EXPECT BS TO BE A PROBLEM. HAD A FEW COOP REPORTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FAR EAST...VERY POWDERY AND THUS EASILY BLOWN AROUND. ABR WC AT 17Z WAS -28. TEMP FALLING SLOWLY...BUT WINDS ALSO FALLING OFF...SO WC'S NOT AS BIG A CONCERN FOR COUNTIES TO WEST OF CURRENT ADVISORY AREA. WILL LET ADVISORY RIDE AND LIKELY EXPIRE LATER THIS AFTN...BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY. .ABR...WINTER WX ADV E SD AND WC MN THROUGH THIS AFTN LORENS sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 250 AM CST THU JAN 20 2000 FORECAST QUANDARIES: CLOUD COVER AMOUNTS TODAY AND FRIDAY... TEMPERATURES...CHANCE OF WINTRY PCPN DEVELOPING OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY. CURRENT AWOS/ASOS OBSERVATIONS...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SURFACE/LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING CWA EXPERIENCING OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PREVALENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD. SURFACE COLD FRONT POSITIONED OVER W TN MOVING EASTWARD. BRISK W TO NW SURFACE WINDS OBSERVED WITH TEMPS BEGINNING TO FALL OUT OF THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL CHART ANALYSIS/RUC SHOWING PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER E TN WITH SECONDARY SHORTWAVES APPROACHING REGION. 130KT 300 MB JET MAX NOTED ALSO ACROSS AREA. NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS NOTED IN 00Z THU MODEL RUNS REGIONALLY...ESPECIALLY IN PROGGED UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. MODEL DIAGNOSTIC/PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS POINT TO THE CONSISTENCY OF BOTH THE AVN/NGM SOLUTIONS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THIS REGIONALLY...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS ACCORDINGLY. TODAY...WITH MOST RECENT WEATHER PATTERN TRENDS AS BEING "QUICK" MOVING...EXPECT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHCENTAL KY TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD..AND BE POSITIONED JUST OF THE NC COAST AS OF 18Z TUE. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PROGGED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NORTH CENTRAL TX AND NORTHEAST OK. BY 00Z FRI. 00Z THU AVN /NGM RH FIELD PROGGS STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SKY CONDITIONS TODAY. EVEN WITH FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM EAST..CAN NOT RULE OUT THE MENTIONING OF A FEW MORNING FLURRIES OVER NW PORTIONS. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE NW AND BRISK THROUGH 00Z FRI. WILL MENTION LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY WITH FREQUENT GUST EXCEEDING 30 MPH. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE TO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY DELTA REGION BY 12Z FRI...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES..DECREASE IN NORTHERNLY WIND SPEEDS...AND GOOD RADIATION COOLING. FRIDAY...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE SLIGHTLY NE INTO THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 00Z SAT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS DRY. HOWEVER..WITH NW MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...LOOK FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TO PROVIDE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS FRI PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. TEMPS...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...MOST NOTABLE WESTERN PORTIONS...AM MORE INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER NGM MOS SOLUTION FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER 30S EAST...BELOW NGM MOS AND MORE IN LINE WITH AVN MOS VALUES. TONIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THIS WINTRY SEASON SO FAR WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER AVN SOLUTION ACCORDINGLY. WITH INFLUX OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FRI AFTERNOON EXPECTED...HIGHS MAY NOT REACH THE "OPTIMISTIC" VALUES OF NGM MOS...ESPECIALLY WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS. WILL TREND TOWARD COOLER FAN AVN VALUES FOR FRI HIGHS. EXTENDED...00Z THU MR SHOWING 1000-500MB CRITICAL THICKNESS 1540 VALUE MOVING SOUTH OF REGION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER.. MR ALSO DEPICTING HIGH VALUES NEAR 40 FOR BNA. WILL GO IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST OF RAIN OR SNOW CHANCE ON SUNDAY. LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD GIVE US A BETTER "LOOK" INTO WETHER A WINTRY WEATHER SCENARIO DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY... BNA 036/015/036/022 0001 CSV 030/011/034/018 0001 .BNA...AREA LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z FRI. $$ 14 JBW tn DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 250 AM CST THU JAN 20 2000 SOME PATCHY FOG ALREADY FORMING EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF COOL FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST POSITION FROM LAPS DATA SHOWS FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF A LAREDO TO VICTORIA LINE AND STEADILY MOVING SOUTH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 06Z ETA POSITION. THE LATEST RUC AND ETA BOTH SHOW SIMILAR POSITIONING BY 12Z IN WHICH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE FRONT IS SHOWING UP NICELY ON IR SATELLITE LOOPS. A TRAVELING SPEED OF 25 KNOTS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACCURATE WHICH AT ITS CURRENT POSITION WOULD BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 10Z. BY 18Z...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS INLAND AND OFFSHORE AREAS. THE ETA IS SHOWING INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTIME HOURS TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE 295K SURFACE AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL INCREASE CLOUDCOVER BASED ON THE FORECASTED ISENTROPIC LIFT. THICKNESS VALUES ALSO SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT DROP DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL GO ALONG WITH A COOLER TEMP FORECAST AS MEAN RH VALUES IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER SHOW THAT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY MAY COME FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY. WILL MENTION SOME 40S OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE COOL SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WEST TEXAS. MOST OF THE CLOUDCOVER WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST. MARINE...FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE ARE FORECAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THIS THINKING. SWAPS DATA SHOWS SEAS TO BE IN A 6-8 FOOT RANGE BY 00Z TONIGHT. WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG THIS ISSUANCE AS SEAS WILL BE BUILDING DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXTENDED...MRF IS SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT TO PASS THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE FLOW STILL VERY PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES...SOUTH TEXAS WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY WIND BY LATE MONDAY. JUST IN TIME FOR MAYBE ANOTHER COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDCOVER. WITH THE ABSENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER DYNAMICS...CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN BLEAK. BRO BB 076/053 076/062 078 0/0/0/0 MFE BB 077/052 077/061 080 0/0/0/0 RGC BB 078/050 078/056 081 0/0/0/0 SPI BB 076/055 076/063 077 0/0/0/0 INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO .BRO...SCA ALL MARINE ZONES. 69 tx DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 830 PM CST WED JAN 19 2000 CDFNT MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT DEEP S TX THU...ACCORDING TO DIFFERING MDL SOLUTIONS. AFTER REVIEWING LATEST RUC...NOT MUCH PUSH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH WEAK CAA CONFINED MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THRU 09Z THU WITH STABLE DWPTS (MID 40S) OVR ALL OF SRN TX AND WINDS PROGD TO SHIFT NE AT 15 KT FM A DRT TO SAT LINE. NGM BRINGS FNT THRU BRO BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHOWS A HIGH OF ONLY 71 DEG F IN BRO. CAA BEGINS IN MFE BY MID MRNG WITH PROJECTED HIGH THU OF 75 DEG F. FAN AND MRF NUMBERS REFLECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THU...AS FNT RETARDED IN ARRIVAL AND GOOD INSOLATION XPCTD ALL DAY WITH ZEROED-OUT CLD CVR. SFC WNDS PROGD TO GO NE AT 10 KT BY NOON...THEN VEER EAST AT 15 KT BY 6 PM. STLT SHOWS S/W MVG OVR CRP NOW GENERATING BKN250. EXODUS OF HIGH CLDS SOON IN THAT AREA. WNDS HAVE TURNED 35012G15KT AT BMQ THIS PAST HOUR WITH AUS STILL IN SW SFC FLOW. NO BASIS TO CHANGE CURRENT FCST...WHICH FOLLOWS AVN SOLUTION AND KEEPS TEMPS UP THU. NEXT RUN MAY DEFINE THINGS BETTER...LET'S HOPE. MARINE...BOY020 MAINTAINS 18017KT DURING PAST TWO HOURS WITH 5 FOOTERS. SCA WAS LIFTED VIA AMENDMENT AT 515 PM. NO CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM FOR BOTH ZFPBRO AND CWFBRO. SYN...PHILO 58/HMT...ABBOTT INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO .BRO...NONE. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 708 PM CST WED JAN 19 2000 KSJT 88D INDICATES THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF FRONTS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR. 23Z RUC...CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...SHOWS THAT WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL STAY THAT WAY FOR A WHILE. MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR STILL WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER...AND SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REDUCE WINDS AND REMOVE CAUTION ON AREA LAKES. .SJT...NONE. 20 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 757 PM CST WED JAN 19 2000 KARX 88D SHOWS THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA. CALLS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH HAS THE STRONGEST WINDS...REPORT SOME DRIFTING SNOW...BUT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY FROM BLOWING SNOW ARE FAIRLY ISOLATED. THE LATEST RUC FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA. FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE BLIZZARD WARNING ALONG WITH PARTS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE THE THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED BEFORE 10 PM. .LSE...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS EVENING FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WIZ053-055-061- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN WIZ043-044 WIND CHILL ADVISORY...OVERNIGHT...NE IA/SE MN/SW/CNTRL WI... IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017- 029-032>034- 041>044-053>055-061- CWK wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 910 AM EST THU JAN 20 2000 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWEEP SE THROUGH CWA. RADAR INDICATES LAST OF LIGHT RAIN HAS EXITED SE ZONES...WITH CLOUDS ALSO RAPIDLY EXITING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST...BUT RUC PROGS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT. WILL PROBABLY RAISE COASTAL WATERS WINDS AND SEAS BASED ON BUOY TRENDS. STRONG CAA SEEN AT 850MB AND THE SURFACE THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TODAY IN SPITE OF GOOD INSOLATION. MAY LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKING ON TRACK BASED ON STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...SCA ALL COASTAL ZONES TODAY. RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTN ALL FL ZONES. TJT fl DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 925 AM CST THU JAN 20 2000 FOG WAS VERY LOCALIZED THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED FROM THE COAST T0 25 MILES INLAND. FOG HAS BEGUN TO BURN OFF WITH VSBYS STARTING TO IMPROVE. WILL MAKE COSMETIC CHANGE BY REMOVING MENTION OF PATCHY MORNING FOG FROM FCST PACKAGE. DRY COOL FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE MID VALLEY THIS EARLY MORNING AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTH AND THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH SURFACE PLOTS INDICATING 40 DEGREE F ISODROSOTHERM CONTOUR EXTENDING FROM A LINE NORTH OF LAREDO TO AROUND HOUSTON ATTM. HIGHEST SURFACE ISOBARIC RISES NOTED FROM A LINE FROM DEL RIO TO SHREVEPORT WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA AND SURFACE LOW OVER REYNOSA MEXICO. THE AREA OF HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL MIGRATE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...FURNISHING A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND WESTERN GULF WATERS WHERE THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT. NE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WESTERN SECTIONS THIS MID AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THAT AREA. WITH NE FLOW AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES. ALL THE RESPECTIVE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 600 MB STARTING FROM THIS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING UNTIL MID DAY TOMORROW. THIS INCREASE OF MOISTURE IN THE VERTICAL PROFILE WILL RESULT FROM WEAK OVERRUNNING AS FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN FROM NE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO THE 3 KFT LVL. THIS MAY PROHIBIT RESIDENTS OF VALLEY TO SEE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT WITH THIS INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER. MARINE...FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF WATERS DURING THE MORNING. NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH RUC SHOWING TIGHTEST GRADIENT FROM THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS AT 18Z. WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FLAG THIS ISSUANCE AS SEAS WILL BE BUILDING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. SYNOPTIC/MESO...CORDERO (64) HMT...MARTINEZ INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO .BRO...SCA ALL MARINE ZONES. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 705 AM EST THU JAN 20 2000 ONE MORE UPDATE OF THE ZONES...WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING >50KTS AT GEV & LATEST RUC/MESOETA ARE SHOWING STRONGER WINDS THAN EARLIER ETA/NGM RUNS. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN MOST 6 COUNTIES FOR NOW...WILL LET DAYSHIFT EVALUATE WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD. .RNK VA... HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY VAZ007-009-015 WIND ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT VAZ010>014-016>024. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY VAZ020. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY FOR ALL ZONES. WIND ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT ALL ZONES. NC...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY NCZ001-002-018. JJ va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 310 AM EST THU JAN 20 2000 KLWX RADAR INDICATES THAT SNOW HAS SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA... WHILE NEIGHBORING RADARS HAVE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN OHIO THROUGH CENTRAL WV AND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VA. ALREADY A COUPLE OF INCHES DOWN IN HARRISONBURG. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWESTERN VA... IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z ETA AND NGM. FIRST SIGNS OF COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NOW SHOWING UP OFF OF CAROLINA COAST.. WITH ISOBARS AND PRESSURE TENDENCIES INDICATING GOOD PRESSURE FALLS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ETA/NGM/AVN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF FEATURES THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH INLAND LOW DISSIPATING AND ENERGY SHIFTING TO COASTAL LOW TOWARD DAYBREAK. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DPVA ALSO AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO.. AND SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ARE EVOLVING AS MODELS SUGGESTED. 06Z RUC SHOWING SAME OVERALL PATTERN AS 00Z MODELS. UVV AND WARM ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD SOURCE OF LIFT FROM CURRENT TIME THROUGH AROUND 14Z OR 15Z FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND NOON... AND COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE SHOULD RESULT IN AN END TO THE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE BAY AS MODELS HINT THAT SOME ENERGY FROM COASTAL LOW MAY BE THROWN BACK AS FAR AS BWI/NHK. FOR AREAS ALONG THE BAY... WITH WORD ZONES WITH SNOW ENDING AROUND MID AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL INDICATE QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.25 INCHES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURE AND OMEGA FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST GOOD DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH.. AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW/WATER RATIOS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 15 TO 1. WSW CURRENTLY IN EFFECT HAS ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART. THINK THAT MOST AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 3-4 INCH RANGE... BUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF THIS VARIABILITY.. WILL LIKELY LEAVE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THE WAY THEY ARE. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWESTWEN PORTION OF THE AREA... WHERE WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH GOOD UPSLOPE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL ALSO INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE BAY.. DUE TO THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF THE COASTAL LOW. AFTER LOW PASSES.. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIG PROBLEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 30-40 KT WINDS MIXING DOWN OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING TODAY AND SNOW SHOULD BE RATHER DRY.. WILL MENTION SOME BLOWING SNOW FOR THE OPEN AREAS. WILL ALSO MAKE A QUICK NOTE OF WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE ZONES AND WSW. WIND CHILLS WILL PROBABLY DROP DOWN INTO ADVSY CRITERIA TONIGHT.. BUT THAT WILL BE BEST HANDLED LATER. .LWX...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY FOR VAZ021-025>031- 036>042-050>057-MDZ002>007-009>011-013>014-016>018- WVZ048>055-DCZ001- SCA FOR TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD PORTION OF CHES BAY MARGRAF! md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1055 AM EST THU JAN 20 2000 LATEST MESO ETA AND RUC RUNS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STAY MAINLY N THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND FINALLY BEGIN TURNING MORE NW AFTER 21Z. DURING THE TRANSITION FROM N TO NW...SOME SHEAR WILL BE EXPERIENCED WITHIN THE 900-700 MB LAYER. THEREFORE... REORGANIZATION OF THE LAKE SNOW BANDS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. THUS...HAVE PUSHED TIMING OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH BACK TO TONIGHT FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND FOR CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM AND KALKASKA COUNTIES. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND FRESHEN WORDING A BIT. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST CONTENT. .APX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...THIS AFTERNOON...MIZ026. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...THIS AFTERNOON...MIZ020-025-031. WINTER STORM WATCH... TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... MIZ008-019-021-022-027-028. EME mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 600 AM EST THU JAN 20 2000 ...MAIN FCST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE ACCUMULATING LES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR... LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHRTWV DIGGING INTO OVR NE MN AND MOVG SE TOWARD UPR MI. ALL MODELS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING VORT LOBE ACROSS FA TODAY AND THIS EVNG WITH ETA HAVING BEST RESOLUTION ON SFC DETAILS AND IDEA OF STRENGTHING LAKE INDUCED TROF WITH PASSING VORT. ETA MODEL SNDGS SHOW INVERSION HGTS RISING WITH SHRTWV AS GOOD 700-300 MB Q-VECT AND DPVA NOTED AHD OF IT. ETA MODEL SNDGS SHOW INVERSION HGTS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT OVR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY INTO THIS EVNG AND THEN LWRG BACK DOWN TO 4KFT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNDGS OVR ERN LAKE INDICATE NO INVERSIONS FOR BRIEF TIME LATE AFT AND EVNG THEN INVERSION LWR BACK DOWN TO 5KFT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 06Z ETA SHOWS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING BULLEYES OF 950 MB CONV OVR ONT AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES TODAY AS LAKE INDUCED TROF STRENGTHENS WITH PASSING SHRTWV. GOOD LLVL CONV BULLEYE CONTINUES TONIGHT OVR ONT AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES WITH LAKE INDUCED TROF HOLDING FIRM. AXIS OF LLVL CONV OVR ERN LAKE SHIFTS INTO ERN ALGER...NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN GOOD LLVL CONV FCST BY MODELS AND LAKE DELTA-T WELL EXCEEDING 25C...LES DECISION TREE POINTS TOWARD EXTENDING CURRENT WARNINGS FOR NW INTO TONIGHT AND NE ZONES INTO FRIDAY. WILL ALSO ISSUE WATCH FOR NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS ENHANCEMENT AND INCREASED LLVL CONV WITH SHRTWV WILL ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE WARNING LES ACCUMS HERE. FOR SAME REASONING WILL UPGRADE ADV FOR CMX-KEW TO A WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT. EVENT SHOULD HAVE LONGEST DURATION (INTO FRIDAY) OVR NE ZONES DUE TO LONG NW FETCH ACROSS LAKE AND BEST CONV MAX NEAR LAKE INDUCED TROF. DECISION TREE YIELDS ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF 7 TO 15 INCHES TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR NW COUNTIES AND ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 18 INCHES OVR COUNTIES EAST OF MQT LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP ADVISORY UP FOR GOGEBIC THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES BEFORE FLOW BACKS TOO FAR NW BEHIND SHRTWV PASSAGE AND CUTS OFF LES HERE. MQT ADVISORY TODAY FOR 2 TO 4 NEW INCHES ALSO LOOKS GOOD MAINLY FOR ERN PORTION OF COUNTY. AGAIN EXPECT BACKING FLOW TO FM 340 TO 310-320 TO GENLY CUT OFF SIGNIF ACCUMS HERE LATE TODAY. HIGHLIGHTED WIND CHILLS TONIGHT FOR MOST ZONES AS EXPECTED MINS OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW AND NORTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD PUSH WIND CHILLS NEAR ADVISORY LVLS TONIGHT. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SOME ZONES TONIGHT. .MQT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT MIZ001>003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MIZ006. WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY MIZ007-014. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TODAY MIZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THIS MORNING MIZ009. VOSS mi